Tuesday, December 10, 2024

2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'

In J.M. Funk's chart of the "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression," the year 2025 belongs to the sequence of 1801-1857-1913-1969. This sequence is connected by a long clock hand or needle to the center of the chart, labeled "Panic. Dumping." 
 
2025 in the 56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression.
(J.M. Funk's original chart of 1932, redrawn by David Williams in 1982)
 
» A knowledge of the present and history is therefore a key to the future. Until Government Standards are based upon the recognition of exterior forces (which govern human conduct) history will repeat itself. THE CHART WILL PREDICT THE FUTURE because the human make-up includes, aspiration, greed, intemperance, fickleness, etc., which traits are governed by endurance; 
endurance is governed by exterior forces which fluctuate in rhythm and tempo 
as constantly as the Sun in its journey through the heavens. «  
James Morris Funk, 1932.
 
  • The Panic of 1801 marked the end of the first phase of the Napoleonic Wars and brought an abrupt halt to the prosperity the US had been experiencing from the carrying trade. Stock prices on the NYSE fell by about 25%.
  • The Panic of 1857 was caused by bank failures, railroad overextension, and falling commodity prices, leading to a financial collapse. The stock market lost about 30%, and numerous businesses and banks failed. The crisis resulted in a severe recession, which lasted until 1859.
  • The Panic of 1913-14 was triggered by the Balkan Wars (1912-13), which foreshadowed war among Europe's major powers. This resulted in a gradual liquidation of US securities by European investors, culminating in a 40% loss by August 1914, when the NYSE closed for four months.
 
 DJIA (daily closes) 1912-1915.
  • Throughout 1969, the S&P 500 continued to decline from its November 29, 1968 peak, falling by 37% to its low on May 25, 1970 (18 months)—marking the worst bear market since 1937-38.  
 
  DJIA (daily bars) 1965-1973.

 Through the 9-year subcycle, 2025 is also related to 2016, 2007, 1998, etc. 
 
There are two other long needles extending from the center of Funk's chart, pointing to the sequences 1817-1873-1929-1985 and 1837-1893-1949-2005: According to Funk, in each 56-year period three major panic periods occur at 20-20-16 year intervals.  
 
So, was there a panic or significant decline in 1985? No. The DJIA closed the year up by 28%. But then in fact, 2005 was the first "fifth year" of any decade in the history of the DJIA to close in the negative, with a shocking decline of 0.6%. Since the 1880s, the fifth year in each Decennial Cycle has been, on average, the most profitable year of the entire cycle, and this pattern may well repeat itself in 2025 as well. The best argument against a positive outlook for 2025 is the fact that the US stock markets have already surpassed the crest of the 42-month cycle, which is expected to bottom out in the first quarter of 2026.
 
 Dow Jones industrial Average 1985 and 2005 (weekly bars).

Then there is this needle from the outer white ring, pointing to 2024, with the label "High Prices. Sell Save" (which corresponds to the major high of November 29, 1968 and, as expected, a major high in December 2024), and another needle from the inner white ring, pointing to around the cusp of 2026-2027 is labeled "Low Prices. Buy" (which corresponds to the January and May 1970 major lows in the S&P 500 – for more details, see the monthly chart below).
 
Since the 1760s, all major financial crises in the US and Western Europe have consistently clustered around Funk's 56-Year Cycle and its subcycles, which all appear to be closely connected to Moon-Sun tidal harmonics. David Williams concluded: "The results show conclusively that regardless of wars, rebellions, population changes, industrialization, technological, and monetary changes, American business has been dominated by a 56-year rhythm." 
 
The 56-Year Pattern of American Business Activity since 1761 vs. Planetary Cycles & Table with the
Accuracy of Major Planetary Aspects of the Jupiter-Uranus Cycle and the Jupiter Saturn Cycle at 
Business Cycle Turning Points 1929-1982 (Williams, 1982).
  
However, also note that the projections of the Four Year Presidential Cycle (see also HERE), the Decennial Cycle (see also HERE), and the Benner Cycle present distinctly different scenarios and outcomes for 2025 and the coming years. And, by the way, BlackRock just canceled the Business Cycle.
 
Reference:
J.M. Funk (1932) - The 56-Year Cycle in American Business Activity. Privately published. Ottawa. IL.
LCdr. David Williams (1947) - Rhythmic Cycles in American Business. 
LCdr. David Williams (1959) - Astro-Economics.
LCdr. David Williams (1982) - Financial Astrology. 
 S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.
December 11, 1968 to December 11, 2024 = (365.2422 * 56) = 20,454 days apart.
Blue line = S&P 500 daily closes shifted forward 20,454 days = Funk Cycle.

  S&P 500 Index (monthly bars) 1966 - 1972.
» Throughout 1969, the NYSE continued to decline from its December 1968 peak 
[= December 2024], falling by 37% to its low in May 1970 [= May 2027]. «

See also: 
 
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Sunday, December 8, 2024

Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0 | Lu QiYuan

Many people believe Trump 2.0 will be a 'peaceful' presidency, but I think they are mistaken. If war becomes the best option to overcome the US crisis, Donald Trump will not shy away from further conflict. Trump and his team are determined to maintain US dominance on the global stage as an empire—nothing has changed in that regard. While some may hope for the decline of the US empire, and I can understand that sentiment, the following isn't about whether the US should or shouldn't remain an empire. It's about how the Trump 2.0 administration is attempting to salvage the situation.
 
 Lu QiYuan, Geopolitical Economist.

Through Elon Musk, Trump will aim to reform and abolish much of the federal bureaucracy, including challenging some of the core interests of the military-industrial complex. If he succeeds, it could shatter the entire establishment system, including the massive oligarchy operating behind it, particularly in the pharmaceutical and military sectors. However, the question remains: Can Elon Musk and his new department, DOGE, accomplish this goal? Honestly, I don't think he can. To make America great again (MAGA), there are three things the United States and its leadership must avoid:
  • The collapse of the US military: To prevent the US military from collapsing, significant reform is necessary. As it stands, the US military is only capable of operating at the battalion level and is no longer able to challenge a major power in large-scale conventional warfare. While US combat tactics and intelligence networks remain the best in the world, the country’s conventional forces—including the Army, Navy, and Air Force—are falling behind. The US still holds an upper hand over smaller or medium-sized countries, but in conventional warfare with a major power, the military would stand little chance. If this situation persists for another five years, the US will be unable to challenge even medium-sized nations. The military’s strength today lies in special forces, covert operations, and tactics like assassination—but in terms of large-scale warfare, as seen in Ukraine, the US is no longer capable of handling such conflicts. This is a serious issue. The US military cannot collapse; it is a basic requirement for maintaining a global hegemonic empire. Over time, parts of the military have been privatized, but these private forces are unlikely to match the capabilities of groups like Russia’s Wagner, and their loyalty could be questionable. This privatization has left the US military in a fragile state.
  • The collapse of the US dollar: To stabilize the US dollar, the US must address its looming debt crisis and budget deficit. At $40 trillion in federal debt, the US is approaching a dangerous threshold—a breaking point after which the dollar could face a severe collapse. This wouldn't necessarily mean a collapse against other currencies, but rather a collapse in value relative to assets like Bitcoin, gold, or other key commodities. This is a critical issue that cannot be postponed. The US needs to begin addressing this problem by 2025 and show clear results by 2026.
  • The collapse of US capital markets: The US capital market is a key pillar supporting the US empire. To prevent its collapse, the US must achieve a degree of reindustrialization. Currently, the capital market is one of the few remaining supports for the US dollar itself.
But let’s now turn to Scott Bessent, whom Trump has chosen as his Treasury Secretary. To me, Bessent is the real gladiator behind Trump 2.0, not Elon Musk. I believe Bessent is one of the most important members of Trump’s Cabinet, and his role will be crucial in keeping the US empire alive. So, when Scott Bessent enters the Trump Cabinet, we can be sure that Trump’s ultimate support still comes from the same old force, because Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of the US establishment deep state.

 
» Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of the US deep state. «
 
Bessent is extremely intelligent and capable. Many are confused about George Soros' financial attacks around the world, including his famous campaign against the British pound in 1997. The truth is, it wasn’t Soros who was the main architect behind that; it was Bessent. Soros became famous because of Bessent, not the other way around. Bessent’s capabilities go beyond what most people can imagine. He possesses a deep understanding of monetary, currency, and financial systems—and, more importantly, he has real-world combat experience in financial warfare. He is a genius. But like everyone, Bessent also has his flaws. People like him, who are highly capable and self-confident, often don’t hide their moves or intentions. He has outlined the following four main goals for the Trump 2.0 administration:

1. The US budget deficit must remain within 3%.  
2. The US GDP growth must exceed 3%.  
3. The US crude oil production must increase by 3 million barrels per day.
4. The US must turn Mexico into an economic vassal to replace China in their supply chain.

Let me offer my prediction: In terms of US debt control, Scott Bessent suggests that the federal deficit needs to be limited to around $1 trillion for fiscal year 2025. This is nearly an impossible task. According to my calculations, US debt will reach $40 trillion by the end of the third quarter of 2025. Achieving this goal would require drastic cuts to federal spending, and I don’t believe Elon Musk has the ability to accomplish that. The US federal government simply won’t be able to generate enough revenue in time to cover the deficit. If the goal is to increase state revenue, the only way would be to militarize the entire country—which is not only nearly impossible, but something I would strongly advise against.

As for the 3% annual GDP growth goal: I believe it is achievable. Given Bessent’s capabilities, I think he could reach this target by maintaining a capital accumulation rate above 6%.

 
» You know what I did? I left troops in Syria to take the oil. I took the oil. «
Donald Trump in a January 2020 interview on Fox News.

Now, let’s focus on the goal of increasing crude oil production by 3 million barrels per day in the US: This is one of the clearest indicators of Trump 2.0’s strategy. But why 3 million barrels? Why this specific number? This is not a random figure. Do you know how much OPEC is reducing its production? Exactly 3 million barrels. Saudi Arabia has cut production by 1 million barrels, Russia by nearly 1 million barrels, and the remaining reductions add up to roughly 3 million barrels. So, while OPEC is cutting production by 3 million barrels, the US is increasing its production by the same amount.

Do you think Scott Bessent wants oil prices to fall? To crash? Maybe down to $20 a barrel? Do you think the energy giants would be happy with that? No, they would be furious because the cost of production in the US is around $30 a barrel. Do you think Bessent hasn’t thought about this? Of course, he has. He likely predicts, just as I do, that oil prices could rise to $150 a barrel. That’s why I said Bessent shouldn’t have made these statements public—they act as a warning signal about a potential US military operation. It suggests that the US might be preparing to take action against Iran and, in doing so, potentially shut down the entire Persian Gulf. That’s why Bessent wants to increase US crude oil production by 3 million barrels.
 
 
» When I left in 2021, Venezuela was ready to collapse. We would have taken it over. 
We would have gotten all that oil. It would have been right next door. But now we're buying it. «
Donald Trump, June 10, 2023.

For those who don’t understand the logic behind this, there’s a fundamental principle of supply and demand in the oil market: When OPEC reduces production, it typically signals a slight decrease in demand. However, when supply drops dramatically—such as due to war—prices can skyrocket, often exponentially rather than linearly. The US, as one of the few remaining major oil producers, stands to benefit from a major conflict in the Persian Gulf. With countries like Russia and Venezuela under heavy sanctions, the US could potentially monopolize oil prices, using this leverage to strengthen the US dollar against other currencies. This is essentially the same strategy the US employed in the Ukraine conflict, where by provoking the war and cutting off Russia’s energy supply to Europe, the US launched an attack on both the euro and the ruble.
 
 » Mexico is gonna have to straighten it out really fast, or the answer is absolutely. «
Donald Trump, November 25, 2024.

Scott Bessent, normally an extremely capable strategist, shouldn’t have revealed these goals so early, as doing so gives countries like China the chance to prepare and implement countermeasures. His statements now serve as a warning signal to world leaders about what’s to come and suggest that it is less likely the US will directly provoke a proxy war targeting China. During the anticipated surge in oil prices, the US could successfully collapse the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound, helping Scott Bessent achieve his goal. 
 
 
» Trump suggested missile strikes into Mexico against drug cartels. «
Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense in the first Trump administration, May 6, 2022.

On top of that, there's an additional strategy: The US could swiftly vassalize Mexico, rapidly industrialize it, and use it to complete a North American internal economic circulation. This would be the only way the US could successfully reindustrialize. Essentially, the US would turn Mexico into an economic vassal, replacing China in its supply chain. In fact, the most direct and simplest way for the US to reindustrialize would be to militarily occupy Mexico and use it as a substitute for China in its economic system.

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Friday, December 6, 2024

Memo from the Chief Economist: Lament of a Bear | David Rosenberg

One can reasonably debate whether the stock market has risen exponentially but there is no arguing that the surge in the S&P 500 these past two years has been nothing short of extraordinary. And it has clearly gone much further than I thought it would, especially in these past twelve months, and so at this point, it is worth the time and effort to discuss and interpret the message from the market.
 
 » Smells of capitulation. «

The bottom line: Tip the hat to the bulls who have, after all, been on the right side of the trade, and provide some rationale behind this powerful surge. This is not some attempt at a mea culpa or a throwing in of any towel, as much as the lament of a bear who has come to grips with the premise that while the market has definitely been exuberant, it may not actually be altogether that irrational. Read on.

 

See also:
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Due to 'Mega Forces': No More Bust, Only Boom | BlackRock Outlook 2025

In its 2025 Global Outlook, BlackRock states that the global economy has moved beyond the cycle of 'boom and bust,' driven by a fundamental shift fueled by the rise of "mega forces." BlackRock argues that the world economy is currently undergoing a transformation shaped by five new "mega forces:" (1.) the transition to net-zero carbon emissions, (2.) geopolitical fragmentation, (3.) demographic changes, (4.) the digitization of finance, and (5.) AI.

 Finally, a world forever rosy: No more bust, only boom.

BlackRock, which oversees $11.5 trillion in assets, believes that this "economic transformation" has broken the global economy free from "historical trends" that have seen markets cycle through boom and bust for centuries. "Mega forces are reshaping economies and their long-term trajectories—it's no longer about short-term fluctuations in activity leading to expansion or recession. [...] 2024 has reinforced our view that we are not in a business cycle: AI has been a major market driver, inflation fell without a growth slowdown, and typical recession signals failed." BlackRock anticipates that stocks will benefit from this ongoing global transformation, which will require massive investments from capital markets, potentially rivaling the investments seen during the Industrial Revolution of the 19th and 20th centuries.

If Schumpeter knew: Economy now free of cycles.
 
As a result, BlackRock suggests investors should rethink their strategies, focusing on long-term opportunities, such as capitalizing on the infrastructure needed for this emerging future. "We think investors should focus more on themes and less on broad asset classes as mega forces reshape whole economies. [...] Infrastructure is at the intersection of mega forces—like AI. The AI buildout is creating a huge and immediate need for data centers. Demand for new-build green infrastructure is skyrocketing as countries and tech companies race to reduce emissions."

In the short term, BlackRock expects US stocks to continue their rally in 2025, in line with trends showing US companies outpacing global competitors over the last decade. "We see the US still standing out versus other developed markets due to stronger growth and its ability to better capitalize on mega forces. We’re increasing our overweight position in US equities and expect the AI theme to broaden." A positive US economic growth outlook for 2025, combined with Donald Trump’s tax cuts and deregulatory initiatives, could further boost the prospects for US stocks.

Meanwhile, US-China tensions are expected to intensify competition for resources, such as "copper," as both nations vie for a competitive edge in AI. New import tariffs imposed by Trump could exacerbate the situation. BlackRock also points to aging global populations, which are likely to push up labor costs and keep inflation high, a trend that could be worsened by potential new limits on immigration introduced by Trump.

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Presidential Cycle Effects with a New President | Tom McClellan

The Presidential Cycle Pattern suggests that the stock market tends to follow similar patterns during the same points in prior presidential terms. The Presidential Cycle Pattern is calculated by averaging the S&P 500 performance over 4-year chunks. Variations can include factors like whether the president is a first-term or incumbent. 
 
  1st Term Presidential Cycle Pattern November 2024 - January 2026

The chart above compares the stock market performance under new presidents versus incumbents. The green line represents new presidents, while incumbent presidents tend to have a more stable market, especially in the first year of their second term, due to a stronger economy heading into reelection. New presidents often spend their first two years facing crises inherited from their predecessors, which can dampen investor sentiment. Incumbents, by contrast, don’t typically blame the previous administration and tend to have better market conditions in their second term.

There’s also a difference in stock market behavior after an election. When a new party wins, Wall Street initially celebrates, but the enthusiasm often fades when the new president faces the reality of governing, particularly in dealing with Congress. In 2020, the market behaved differently due to massive Fed intervention, with QE4 pumping $1 trillion per month. However, this was reversed in 2022 with quantitative tightening.

  1st Term Presidential Cycle Pattern November 2024 - November 2028

By the third year of a presidential term, stock market trends tend to be positive, with few exceptions like 1931 and 1939. By the election year, early performance differences between first and second term presidents are generally evened out. 
 
Looking ahead to Trump’s presidency, the market may initially react positively to expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and government efficiency. However, if his policies lead to a balanced budget, historically, that could be bearish for the stock market.
 
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Thursday, December 5, 2024

S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update | Steve Miller

In early November, both small caps and mid caps took the lead, but they have since paused. Recently, the mega caps have regained leadership, with Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all making sharp moves to the upside. This has contributed to a recent uptick in the S&P 500. On the upside, we have short term resistance levels between 6,073 and 6,176.

S&P 500 (weekly bars), six-month cycles, three-month cycles.

S&P 500 (daily bars), 20-trading day cycle trough is expected on December 7 (±3).

The next 20 trading day cycle low is expected on December 7 (±3 trading days), and the dominant cycle trough is due in late May to June of 2025. The market is clearly in a rising phase, with the weekly trend firmly up. Only a drop below the 5,700 low would shift the market from a bullish cycle structure to a bearish one. On the short-term S&P 500 chart, the current setup resembles Apple’s chart: a bullish, right-hand translation throughout nearly the entire rally.
 
Now there is this very narrow window around December 7 for a pullback. The downside base case would be between 6,025 and 5,963, followed by another move to the upside for a higher high. Overall, this remains a very bullish market during a bullish seasonal period, and fading the trend is not advisable at this time.

 
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Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Lulled into Permabull Paradise | Callum Thomas

“To put it simply, and probably no one wants to hear it, but this is not a good set up 
— investors and speculators alike have been lulled into permabull paradise.”
 Callum Thomas, December 4, 2024.
 
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars - December 4, 2024) - Tom DeMark's Sequential 9-13 Setup. 
Another ATH (its 56th of the year), and up for the 11th session in 12.
Its daily MACD and RSI pushed further positive.
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December Stock Market Performance in Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Trading in December is typically holiday-inspired, driven by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker due to tax-loss selling and year-end portfolio restructuring. Over the last 21 years, December’s first trading day has generally been bearish for both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. A modest rally through the sixth or seventh trading day often fizzles out as the month progresses. Around mid-month, however, holiday cheer tends to take over, and tax-loss selling pressure fades, pushing the indexes higher with a brief pause near the end of the month. In election years, Decembers follow a similar pattern but with significantly larger historical gains in the second half of the month, particularly for the Russell 2000.


■  A choppy first half of December before the year-end Santa Claus rally.
■ The Santa Claus rally begins on December 24 and lasts until January 3, 2025.
■ The 'January Effect' small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December.
■ See also [HERE], [HERE], [HERE], and [HERE].
 
Small caps tend to start outperforming large caps around the middle of the month, driven by the early January Effect. Our “Free Lunch” strategy is based on stocks making new 52-week lows on Quad-Witching Friday (December 20). The “Santa Claus Rally” (SCR) begins with the market open on December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the new year. Since 1969, the average S&P 500 gain during this seven-trading-day period has been a respectable 1.3%.

This serves as our first market indicator for the New Year. Years when the SCR fails to materialize are often followed by flat or down markets. Of the last seven instances where our SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year) did not occur, six were followed by flat years (1994, 2004, and 2015), two by severe bear markets (2000 and 2008), and one by a mild bear market that ended in February 2016. The absence of Santa this year was likely due to temporary inflation and interest rate concerns that quickly dissipated. As Yale Hirsch’s now-famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

 

Consumers have never been more interested in buying stocks. Corporate insiders have never been less interested. 
Pick your fighter. — Jason Goepfert, December 4, 2024.
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Tuesday, December 3, 2024

South Korea: The Sad Chronicles of a US Vassal State

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law on December 3, 2024. Lawmakers voted against the move, and protesters gathered outside parliament. Yoon framed the declaration as "rooting out pro-North Korean forces", but it was strongly opposed by the parliamentary speaker and even Han Dong-hoon, leader of Yoon's own party, who has clashed with the president over recent scandals. Self-coup, martial law, dictatorship? Megalomania, nut-case, loony bin? Will we hear cries from the US State Department about human rights, democracy, and sanctions, or will they remain silent since South Korea (ROK) is the best-controlled and most diligent US vassal state in Asia, still occupied since 1945 by more than 24,000 US combat troops? South Korea doesn’t even command its own military; the Pentagon does. The American occupation regime systematically destroyed traditional Korean culture and identity. Today, the country is trapped in a death spiral, with the lowest fertility rate in Asia, 350,000 abortions annually, and the highest suicide rate in the world.
 
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's approval rating 
fell to a mere 19% just days before he declared martial law.
 
Maximum dishonor, submission, and degeneracy:
Yoon sings 'American Pie' at Biden's April 2023 state dinner.
 
» Martial law, to root out pro-North Korean forces. «
 
To better understand the realities in South Korea, the following list provides a brief overview of the political turmoil and challenges faced by South Koreans under US occupation since 1948:

1. Lee Seung-man (1948-1960) – The first president of South Korea; overthrown after student protests and widespread unrest.  
2. Yun Bo-seon (1960-1962) – The second president, whose term ended after a military coup.  
3. Park Chung-hee (1962-1979) – Seized power in a 1961 coup and ruled until his assassination in 1979.  
4. Choi Kyu-hah (1979-1980) – Served as president after Park’s death but was deposed by a military coup led by Chun Doo-hwan.  
5. Chun Doo-hwan (1981-1988) – Came to power through a coup, later sentenced to death (commuted to life imprisonment) after his presidency.  
6. Roh Tae-woo (1988-1993) – Former military leader and Chun’s ally, later convicted of corruption and sentenced to prison.  
7. Kim Young-sam (1993-1998) – The first civilian president in decades, he pushed for democratic reforms and prosecuted former military leaders.  
8. Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003) – A former pro-democracy activist who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his policy towards North Korea; was imprisoned and sentenced to death before becoming president.
9. Roh Moo-hyun (2003-2008) – Impeached (later reinstated), faced corruption investigations after his presidency, and tragically committed suicide.  
10. Lee Myung-bak (2008-2013) – Former businessman, arrested after his presidency on corruption charges and is serving a sentence.  
11. Park Geun-hye (2013-2016) – South Korea's first female president, impeached over a corruption scandal, and sentenced to 24 years in prison.  
12. Moon Jae-in (2017-2022) – Elected after Park’s impeachment, a former human rights lawyer who focused on engagement with North Korea and domestic reforms.  
13. Yoon Suk-yeol (2022-present) – Ran on a hardline stance on North Korea, accuses the main opposition party of sympathizing with North Korea and declared martial law on December 3, 2024, "to root out pro-North Korean forces".
   
» He can’t even do martial law properly.«
Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
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