Ap Index of Geomagnetic Activity and S&P 500 Returns | Lifang Peng et al.

Existing research provides strong evidence that geomagnetic activity impacts stock investment decisions by influencing human health, mood, and behavior. Using monthly geomagnetic indices and US stock market indices from the past 20 years, we found compelling evidence supporting a causal relationship between geomagnetic activity and stock market returns.

 

High AP Index, low stock market performance—really?

Sunspot Number and Ap Index 2018 into 2032 (NASA, updated December 5, 2024).

 

The results were robust, indicating that higher geomagnetic activity, which often corresponds with intense solar activity, is inversely related to stock market performance. In other words, when geomagnetic activity was higher, the stock market tended to perform worse.

Reference:
Lifang Peng, Ning Li, Jingwen Pan (2019) - Effect of Ap Index of Geomagnetic Activity on S&P 500 Stock Market Return.

 

S&P 500 (daily candles) vs Ap Index. 

 The semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity is linked to the interaction between the solar wind and Earth's tilted magnetic field, which typically causes increased geomagnetic disturbances around the equinoxes and lower activity around the solstices.

 

 See also:
Vladimir Belkin (2024) - Strong Inverse Correlation between Ap Index and Gold Price. 

Vladimir Belkin (2024) - 2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity. 

Robert R. Prechter and Peter Kendall (2011) - The Sunspot Cycle and Stocks.

Anna Krivelyova and Cesare Robotti (2003) - Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market.

Strong Inverse Correlation between Ap Index and Gold Price | Vladimir Belkin

A strong inverse correlation (coefficient -0.7879) between the geomagnetic Ap Index and the gold price, with a one-year lag, is observed over 57 years of data.

 

 Strong inverse correlation, with a one-year lag—seriously?

 

Based on the results of his study, the author predicts a significant decline in the price of gold in 2024.

 

Reference: 

Vladimir Belkin (January 2024) - Geomagnetic Ap Index (1966-2022) and the Price of Gold with a Lag of 1 Year (1967-2023): Evidence of a Strong Inverse Correlation. 

Ap Index 2018 into 2032 (NASA, updated December 5, 2024).

 

 Gold (weekly bars) – January 1 to December 17, 2024: +28%.

2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity | Vladimir Belkin

This study of solar-terrestrial relationships compares the years of the solar cycle based on Wolf sunspot numbers and the arithmetic averages of crude oil prices from 1970 to 2023 (solar cycles 20-25), all presented in a single chart. Mean annual Wolf numbers were sourced from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC), while Brent crude oil price data (adjusted to 2021 dollars) was obtained from BP and the Federal Reserve Economic Data website for 2022-2023.

Order of years in solar cycles and crude oil prices for the period 1970-2023.

Very strong correlation (coefficient 0.9908)

 

Using this data, the above diagram was created to illustrate the very strong correlation (coefficient 0.9908) between crude oil prices and the ordinal years of the solar cycles for the period 1970-2023.

 

 Polynomial function of oil price and year number in solar cycle for 1861–2019.

Very strong correlation (coefficient 0.9897)

Since 2024 marks the fifth year of the current Solar Cycle #25, it corresponds to an average forecast Brent oil price of $74.18 per barrel. In 2025, the sixth year of the cycle, the projected price is $56.04. In 2026, the seventh year of the cycle, the forecast is $43.84, while the anticipated price for 2027 is $42.84.

 

Reference: 

Vladimir Belkin (October 1, 2024) - Oil Price Decline in 2025-2027. 

 

See also:
Vladimir Belkin (2020) - Oil Prices and Solar Activity: Evidence of Strong Ties (1861–2019). 

Lu Qiyuan (2024) - Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0.

Mikhail Gorbanev (2017) - Solar Activity and Economic Recessions. 

Sunspot Number 2018 into 2032 (NASA, updated December 5, 2024).

 

 SIDC 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number.

Google Censorship Against TPR | Sincerely, The Blogger Team

December 17, 2024

 

Hello, your post titled "Pentagon Staged COVID-19 Plandemic Years in Advance | Sasha Latypova" [February 15, 2024] was flagged to us for review. We have determined that it violates our guidelines and deleted the post, previously at http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2024/02/pentagon-staged-covid-19-plandemic.html. Why was your blog post deleted? Your content has violated our Misleading Content policy. 

 

Sincerely, The Blogger Team

 

 

See instead:

Sasha Latypova Reveals COVID Pandemic Was a Dept. of Defense Operation Dating Back to Obama Regime, November 25, 2024:
https://rumble.com/v5sevk2-covid-pandemic-dod-operation.html
Sasha Latypova on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s podcast, March 15, 2023:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rfk-jr-podcast/id1552000243?i=1000604415283
Sasha Latypova interview with Redacted Clayton Morris. Docs reveal Covid-19 COVER-UP goes straight to the top, January 8, 2023:
https://odysee.com/@FoxesAmazingChannel:8/BOMBSHELL-docs-reveal-Covid-19-COVER-UP-goes-straight-to-the-top-_-Redacted-with-Clayton-Morris-ERvURcpg3JE:5

 

 

Sir Isaac Newton's South Sea Bubble Nightmare

In 1720 Isaac Newton had the good fortune to invest early in the South Sea Bubble, making a quick and decent profit. Satisfied with his gains, he exited before the bubble fully inflated. However, as he saw his friends amass incredible wealth, he couldn't resist re-entering the market. In an attempt to make up for lost time, he invested far more—some of it borrowed—and, unfortunately, bought in just before the bubble burst. As the stock plummeted, he lost almost everything, with his investment returning to roughly the value of his initial, smaller stake. It's said that Newton, reflecting on his experience, remarked, "I can calculate the movement of heavenly bodies but not the madness of men."

 

» There is nothing so disturbing to one's well-being and judgment as to see a friend get rich. « 

– Charles P. Kindleberger

 

Sir Isaac reportedly lost the equivalent of $4 to $5 million today, which amounted to almost the entirety of his investment in the South Sea Company. While this was a huge blow to his wealth, it did not leave him destitute, and he still maintained a fortune, though his stake in the company was essentially wiped out, losing around 90% of its value.

US Stock Market at the Cliff — Don't Be a Lemming | Lars von Thienen

[...] The chart below depicts a composite model of all identified cycles in the P/E Shiller data from 1900-2024. Notably, the "cliff" phenomenon, where all cycles synchronize their peaks at a single point in time, has only occurred in 1929, 2000, and now appears to be happening again in 2024. 

 

 Composite Cycle Analysis Model for the P/E Ratio of the S&P500 from 1900-2024 | December 6, 2024.

[...] The 42-Month Cycle has the highest strength and is the dominant cycle in the dataset. This 42-Month Cycle is generally significant for financial markets, as it has been identified across numerous financial assets. Let's take a closer look at what makes this cycle so special in this case. Starting with the current situation, the 42-Month Cycle has topped at major market peaks, such as the internet bubble in 2000, the financial crisis in 2007, and 2021. Additionally, the bottoms of this cycle have been synchronized.

 

42-Month Cycle in the P/E S&P 500 Ratio | 1900-1950.

42-Month Cycle in the P/E S&P 500 Ratio | 1999–2024.

[...] A cycle that remains remarkably stable in length and phase over 120 years is quite uncommon. As shown in the upper chart, the 42-Month Cycle is also currently reaching its peak and transitioning into a downward phase, which is expected to continue into 2026.

Quoted from::
Lars von Thienen (December 8, 2024) - The Cliff - Don't Be a Lemming. 

P/E Ratio of S&P500 stocks reveals a cliff of red downward pointing cycles.

 

See also:

Lars von Thienen (October 23, 2024) - The next wave on the horizon for the US stock markets – it is time to prepare.

Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.

Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

TPR (December 10, 2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'

In J.M. Funk's chart of the "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression," the year 2025 belongs to the sequence of 1801-1857-1913-1969. This sequence is connected by a long clock hand or needle to the center of the chart, labeled "Panic. Dumping." 

 

2025 in the 56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression.

(J.M. Funk's original chart of 1932, redrawn by David Williams, 1982)

 

» A knowledge of the present and history is therefore a key to the future. Until Government Standards are based upon the recognition of exterior forces (which govern human conduct) history will repeat itself. THE CHART WILL PREDICT THE FUTURE because the human make-up includes, aspiration, greed, intemperance, fickleness, etc., which traits are governed by endurance; 

endurance is governed by exterior forces which fluctuate in rhythm and tempo 

as constantly as the Sun in its journey through the heavens. «  

James Morris Funk, 1932.

 

• The Panic of 1801 marked the end of the first phase of the Napoleonic Wars and brought an abrupt halt to the prosperity the US had been experiencing from the carrying trade. Stock prices on the NYSE fell by about 25%.
• The Panic of 1857 was caused by bank failures, railroad overextension, and falling commodity prices, leading to a financial collapse. The stock market lost about 30%, and numerous businesses and banks failed. The crisis resulted in a severe recession, which lasted until 1859.
• The Panic of 1913-14 was triggered by the Balkan Wars (1912-13), which foreshadowed war among Europe's major powers. This resulted in a gradual liquidation of US securities by European investors, culminating in a 40% loss by August 1914, when the NYSE closed for four months.

 

 DJIA (daily closes) 1912-1915.

• Throughout 1969, the S&P 500 continued to decline from its November 29, 1968 peak, falling by 37% to its low on May 25, 1970 (18 months)—marking the worst bear market since 1937-38.  

 

  DJIA (daily bars) 1965-1973.

 Through the 9-year subcycle, 2025 is also related to 2016, 2007, 1998, etc. 

 

There are two other long needles extending from the center of Funk's chart, pointing to the sequences 1817-1873-1929-1985 and 1837-1893-1949-2005: According to Funk, in each 56-year period three major panic periods occur at 20-20-16 year intervals.  

 

So, was there a panic or significant decline in 1985? No. The DJIA closed the year up by 28%. But then in fact, 2005 was the first "fifth year" of any decade in the history of the DJIA to close in the negative, with a shocking decline of 0.6%. Since the 1880s, the fifth year in each Decennial Cycle has been, on average, the most profitable year of the entire cycle, and this pattern may well repeat itself in 2025 as well. The best argument against a positive outlook for 2025 is the fact that the US stock markets have already surpassed the crest of the 42-month cycle, which is expected to bottom out in the first quarter of 2026.

 

 Dow Jones industrial Average 1985 and 2005 (weekly bars).

Then there is this needle from the outer white ring, pointing to 2024, with the label "High Prices. Sell Save" (which corresponds to the major high of November 29, 1968 and, as expected, a major high in December 2024), and another needle from the inner white ring, pointing to around the cusp of 2026-2027 is labeled "Low Prices. Buy" (which corresponds to the January and May 1970 major lows in the S&P 500 – for more details, see the monthly chart below).

 

Since the 1760s, all major financial crises in the US and Western Europe have consistently clustered around Funk's 56-Year Cycle and its subcycles, which all appear to be closely connected to Moon-Sun tidal harmonics. David Williams concluded: "The results show conclusively that regardless of wars, rebellions, population changes, industrialization, technological, and monetary changes, American business has been dominated by a 56-year rhythm." 

 

The 56-Year Pattern of American Business Activity since 1761 vs. Planetary Cycles & Table with the

Accuracy of Major Planetary Aspects of the Jupiter-Uranus Cycle and the Jupiter Saturn Cycle at 

Business Cycle Turning Points 1929-1982 (Williams, 1982).

  

However, also note that the projections of the Four Year Presidential Cycle (see also HERE), the Decennial Cycle (see also HERE), and the Benner Cycle present distinctly different scenarios and outcomes for 2025 and the coming years. And, by the way, BlackRock just canceled the Business Cycle.

 

Reference:

J.M. Funk (1932) - The 56-Year Cycle in American Business Activity. Privately published. Ottawa. IL.

LCdr. David Williams (1947) - Rhythmic Cycles in American Business. 

LCdr. David Williams (1959) - Astro-Economics.
LCdr. David Williams (1982) - Financial Astrology. 

 David McMinn (1997) - The Sun, the Moon, and the Number 56.

David McMinn (1999) - Astrology and the 9/56 Year Cycle. 

David McMinn (2018) - 9/56-Year Cycle and Financial Panics. 

David McMinn (2019) - J.M. Funk and the 9/56 Year Cycle.

Lars von Thienen (2022) - Cycles of Financial Crisis: Using Long Term Static Cycle Models. (video)

 

 S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.
December 11, 1968 to December 11, 2024 = (365.2422 * 56) = 20,454 days apart.

Blue line = S&P 500 daily closes shifted forward 20,454 days = Funk Cycle.

  S&P 500 Index (monthly bars) 1966 - 1972.

» Throughout 1969, the NYSE continued to decline from its December 1968 peak 

[= December 2024], falling by 37% to its low in May 1970 [= May 2027]. «

See also: 

TPR (2015) - 2015 in J.M. Funk’s 56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression.

Tom McClellan (December 6, 2024) - Presidential Cycle Effects with a New President.

Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

TPR (2022) - Periods When to Make Money: Samuel Benner's Cycle Projection into 2026 High.
TPR (2012) - 2025 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table (1784 - 2121).

 

Google Search Result: "Funk Cycle"

Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0 | Lu Qiyuan

Many people believe Trump 2.0 will be a 'peaceful' presidency, but I think they are mistaken. If war becomes the best option to overcome the US crisis, Donald Trump will not shy away from further conflict. Trump and his team are determined to maintain US dominance on the global stage as an empire—nothing has changed in that regard. While some may hope for the decline of the US empire, and I can understand that sentiment, the following isn't about whether the US should or shouldn't remain an empire. It's about how the Trump 2.0 administration is attempting to salvage the situation.

 

 Lu Qiyuan, Geopolitical Economist.

Through Elon Musk, Trump will aim to reform and abolish much of the federal bureaucracy, including challenging some of the core interests of the military-industrial complex. If he succeeds, it could shatter the entire establishment system, including the massive oligarchy operating behind it, particularly in the pharmaceutical and military sectors. However, the question remains: Can Elon Musk and his new department, DOGE, accomplish this goal? Honestly, I don't think he can. To make America great again (MAGA), there are three things the United States and its leadership must avoid:

• The collapse of the US military: To prevent the US military from collapsing, significant reform is necessary. As it stands, the US military is only capable of operating at the battalion level and is no longer able to challenge a major power in large-scale conventional warfare. While US combat tactics and intelligence networks remain the best in the world, the country’s conventional forces—including the Army, Navy, and Air Force—are falling behind. The US still holds an upper hand over smaller or medium-sized countries, but in conventional warfare with a major power, the military would stand little chance. If this situation persists for another five years, the US will be unable to challenge even medium-sized nations. The military’s strength today lies in special forces, covert operations, and tactics like assassination—but in terms of large-scale warfare, as seen in Ukraine, the US is no longer capable of handling such conflicts. This is a serious issue. The US military cannot collapse; it is a basic requirement for maintaining a global hegemonic empire. Over time, parts of the military have been privatized, but these private forces are unlikely to match the capabilities of groups like Russia’s Wagner, and their loyalty could be questionable. This privatization has left the US military in a fragile state.
• The collapse of the US dollar: To stabilize the US dollar, the US must address its looming debt crisis and budget deficit. At $40 trillion in federal debt, the US is approaching a dangerous threshold—a breaking point after which the dollar could face a severe collapse. This wouldn't necessarily mean a collapse against other currencies, but rather a collapse in value relative to assets like Bitcoin, gold, or other key commodities. This is a critical issue that cannot be postponed. The US needs to begin addressing this problem by 2025 and show clear results by 2026.
• The collapse of US capital markets: The US capital market is a key pillar supporting the US empire. To prevent its collapse, the US must achieve a degree of reindustrialization. Currently, the capital market is one of the few remaining supports for the US dollar itself.

But let’s now turn to Scott Bessent, whom Trump has chosen as his Treasury Secretary. To me, Bessent is the real gladiator behind Trump 2.0, not Elon Musk. I believe Bessent is one of the most important members of Trump’s Cabinet, and his role will be crucial in keeping the US empire alive. So, when Scott Bessent enters the Trump Cabinet, we can be sure that Trump’s ultimate support still comes from the same old force, because Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of the US establishment deep state.

 

» Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of the US deep state. «

 

Bessent is extremely intelligent and capable. Many are confused about George Soros' financial attacks around the world, including his famous campaign against the British pound in 1997. The truth is, it wasn’t Soros who was the main architect behind that; it was Bessent. Soros became famous because of Bessent, not the other way around. Bessent’s capabilities go beyond what most people can imagine. He possesses a deep understanding of monetary, currency, and financial systems—and, more importantly, he has real-world combat experience in financial warfare. He is a genius. But like everyone, Bessent also has his flaws. People like him, who are highly capable and self-confident, often don’t hide their moves or intentions. He has outlined the following four main goals for the Trump 2.0 administration:

1. The US budget deficit must remain within 3%.  
2. The US GDP growth must exceed 3%.  
3. The US crude oil production must increase by 3 million barrels per day.

4. The US must turn Mexico into an economic vassal to replace China in their supply chain.

Let me offer my prediction: In terms of US debt control, Scott Bessent suggests that the federal deficit needs to be limited to around $1 trillion for fiscal year 2025. This is nearly an impossible task. According to my calculations, US debt will reach $40 trillion by the end of the third quarter of 2025. Achieving this goal would require drastic cuts to federal spending, and I don’t believe Elon Musk has the ability to accomplish that. The US federal government simply won’t be able to generate enough revenue in time to cover the deficit. If the goal is to increase state revenue, the only way would be to militarize the entire country—which is not only nearly impossible, but something I would strongly advise against.

As for the 3% annual GDP growth goal: I believe it is achievable. Given Bessent’s capabilities, I think he could reach this target by maintaining a capital accumulation rate above 6%.

 

» You know what I did? I left troops in Syria to take the oil. I took the oil. «
Donald Trump in a January 2020 interview on Fox News.

Now, let’s focus on the goal of increasing crude oil production by 3 million barrels per day in the US: This is one of the clearest indicators of Trump 2.0’s strategy. But why 3 million barrels? Why this specific number? This is not a random figure. Do you know how much OPEC is reducing its production? Exactly 3 million barrels. Saudi Arabia has cut production by 1 million barrels, Russia by nearly 1 million barrels, and the remaining reductions add up to roughly 3 million barrels. So, while OPEC is cutting production by 3 million barrels, the US is increasing its production by the same amount.

Do you think Scott Bessent wants oil prices to fall? To crash? Maybe down to $20 a barrel? Do you think the energy giants would be happy with that? No, they would be furious because the cost of production in the US is around $30 a barrel. Do you think Bessent hasn’t thought about this? Of course, he has. He likely predicts, just as I do, that oil prices could rise to $150 a barrel. That’s why I said Bessent shouldn’t have made these statements public—they act as a warning signal about a potential US military operation. It suggests that the US might be preparing to take action against Iran and, in doing so, potentially shut down the entire Persian Gulf. That’s why Bessent wants to increase US crude oil production by 3 million barrels.

 

 

» When I left in 2021, Venezuela was ready to collapse. We would have taken it over. 

We would have gotten all that oil. It would have been right next door. But now we're buying it. «

Donald Trump, June 10, 2023.

For those who don’t understand the logic behind this, there’s a fundamental principle of supply and demand in the oil market: When OPEC reduces production, it typically signals a slight decrease in demand. However, when supply drops dramatically—such as due to war—prices can skyrocket, often exponentially rather than linearly. The US, as one of the few remaining major oil producers, stands to benefit from a major conflict in the Persian Gulf. With countries like Russia and Venezuela under heavy sanctions, the US could potentially monopolize oil prices, using this leverage to strengthen the US dollar against other currencies. This is essentially the same strategy the US employed in the Ukraine conflict, where by provoking the war and cutting off Russia’s energy supply to Europe, the US launched an attack on both the euro and the ruble.

 

 » Mexico is gonna have to straighten it out really fast, or the answer is absolutely. «

Donald Trump, November 25, 2024.

Scott Bessent, normally an extremely capable strategist, shouldn’t have revealed these goals so early, as doing so gives countries like China the chance to prepare and implement countermeasures. His statements now serve as a warning signal to world leaders about what’s to come and suggest that it is less likely the US will directly provoke a proxy war targeting China. During the anticipated surge in oil prices, the US could successfully collapse the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound, helping Scott Bessent achieve his goal. 

 

 

» Trump suggested missile strikes into Mexico against drug cartels. «
Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense in the first Trump administration, May 6, 2022.

On top of that, there's an additional strategy: The US could swiftly vassalize Mexico, rapidly industrialize it, and use it to complete a North American internal economic circulation. This would be the only way the US could successfully reindustrialize. Essentially, the US would turn Mexico into an economic vassal, replacing China in its supply chain. In fact, the most direct and simplest way for the US to reindustrialize would be to militarily occupy Mexico and use it as a substitute for China in its economic system.

Reference:
Awakening Richard (December 6, 2024) - Top Chinese Economist Exposes US Secret Plan. (video)

 

See also:

Pepe Escobar (November 28, 2024) - Trump’s Coming War on BRICS and the Global South.

Dmitry Skvortsov (November 25, 2024) - Trump's Plan to Ruin China.

 Francisco José Fernández-Cruz Sequera (October 30, 2024) - Global MAGA-nomics.

 Serge Bernard (2015) - From Conquest to Affluence to Collapse: The 250 Year Empire Life Cycle.