April 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.

 Since 1950, April has shown steady market gains from the first trading day to the last, with occasional

minor dips. In post-election years, April starts weaker, but the dip is brief and shallow.

As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, April has historically been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.

 

In post-election years, April remains a top performing month ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 27, 2025) - Taxes Schmaxes – April Strong Open to Close – Deadline Impact Fades.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2025) - April is the second-best month for S&P 500 and DJIA.

 

Other Bullish Scenarios:

 

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023).

Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

 

Bearish Scenarios:

 

 Next 20-day Hurst cycle due to bottom around April 9 (Wed)(±).

 

 

 FINRA Margin Debt vs S&P 500 Real Values, suggesting risk as of late March 2025. 

 

 

Potential opportunity shorting the S&P 500 in
the next major downturn over the coming weeks.

Trigger Trades, March 27, 2025.

 

See also:

TPR (March 7, 2025) - The Three Week Cycle, Quarterly Shift, and IPDA Data Ranges.

TPR (March 11, 2025) - S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle. 

TPR (March 23, 2025) - Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2.

 

The Kondratieff Cycle and Its Subdivisions.

Cosmic Cluster Days | April 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. However, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows—also within the 'noise channel'—may correlate with or coincide with market movements and reversals.

 

   Cosmic Cluster Days  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel    — — —  Solunar Rhythm

 ○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon | ▴  = Lunar Declination max North / ▾ = max South |  立春 =  Solar Terms

 

Cosmic Cluster Days in April 2025:

Mar 22 (Sat) | Apr 04 (Fri) | Apr 18 (Fri) | Apr 30 (Wed) | May 25 (Sun)

 

Partial Solar Eclipse (New Moon in Aries) on Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 6:46 am EDT. 

 Mars at Aphelion on Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 18:00 EDT.

Mercury at Aphelion on Thursday, April 17, 2025 at 10:00 EDT.

Mercury at Greatest Elongation on Monday, April 21, 2025 at 15:00 EDT.

 

For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].

Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].  

Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE]. 

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points, click [HERE]. 

Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].

Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].

The SoLunar Rhythm in April 2025.

 

Selected geocentric events in April 2025 (EST/EDT).

Are Metals Kicking Off the Next Commodity Supercycle? | Alex Krainer

Market analysts tend to attribute great significance to the price of copper as an important leading economic indicator: if demand for copper is rising, the economy is growing (and vice versa). For that reason, they pay close attention to what "Dr. Copper" is saying. But last week, Gold also made new all time highs at around $3,050/oz. Silver rallied quite strongly as well, but it's still trading well below its ATH price, which was just shy of $50/tr.oz. in April of 2011. Here is what the whole COMEX metals complex looks like:

 

 COMEX Metals Complex (January 01, 2021 = 100)

 

There has been an overall rising trend in the metals, building gradually from late 2023. However, platinum barely moved thus far and palladium actually dropped by more than half in the last four years. The rise in Gold, Silver and Copper may be driven by inflation fears rather than economic growth. Those three metals are investors' preferred inflation hedges. Inflation hedging demand is likely what's behind the upward pressure on prices. 

 

Europe's great rearmament frenzy and the hundreds of billions of euros being allocated for it might end up adding more upward pressure to prices of industrial metals, as well as energy. In all, this will end up giving a strong boost to commodity price inflation in what could end up being a self-reinforcing cycle, triggering the next leg in the widely anticipated commodity supercycle.

US Commodity Price Index (1795 to Present)
with Major Inflation Peaks (Red Dots) & Major Inflation Troughs (Blue Dots).
Shown as 10 Year Rolling Compound Growth Rate with Polynomial Trend at Tops & Bottoms.

Long commodity cycles suggest that currency debasement and inflation may peak in the early 2040s. A commodity supercycle could reach its peak by 2045 (indicated by the last red dot), following a long cycle wave that spans approximately 55 years, with each cycle growing 5 years longer over the past 200 years. This pattern implies that the next peak will occur around 2045, 65 years after the peak in 1980.

None of this will happen overnight: the commodity supercycle is expected to span a period of 10 to 25 years, and it will be marked with many price rallies, followed by corrections and consolidations in that time. It should therefore be navigated with due caution and an iron discipline.

Quoted from:
Alex Krainer (March 26, 2025) - Are metals kicking off the next commodity supercycle?

 

"Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices." 

 

See also:

Simon Hunt (January 11, 2025) - Markets Amidst Trump 2.0: Geopolitics and Geoeconomics in 2025.

Dumb & Dumber: US Senate Hearing on National Security | Judge Napolitano

 Tulsi Gabbard, National Intelligence Director & John Ratcliffe, CIA Director.

 

"God of all life, we seek Your guidance in a world filled with challenges. Today, prepare the members of this body [the US Senate Hearing on National Security] for the difficult work of solving life's riddles. Grant them the wisdom to find common ground and accomplish Your will in our nation and the world. Teach them to give of themselves for the good of others. Lord, amen."

 Opening Prayer for the US Senate Hearing on National Security, March 25, 2025.

Full Clownshow click [HERE]

 

Once upon a time, a transactional real estate shyster known as The Rabbi, a hillbilly, a crusader, a tattletale, a muy pendejo, and an aloha princess—each very ambitious and cunning—embarked on a journey to change the world forever. One day, they ...

 

 The Signal 'Houthi Chat Group'.

 

» I often think about what has happened to the concept of truth in our society. People lie constantly, deceive endlessly, and spin narratives all the time. It has become so difficult to know what to believe anymore. This is a tragic situation. And by the way, this is most apparent when it comes to Israel. There, you are often not even allowed to discuss how Israel behaves, or how the Israeli issue relates to other issues. It’s simply dismissed, and as a result, people end up speaking about it in vague, indirect ways. The level of dishonesty in our society is truly staggering.

» The US is killing without purpose. We decide to attack the Houthis, and we do it.
We don’t care about the Constitution, the law, or the lives of civilians. «

 

We have been, and continue to be, complicit in supporting a genocide in Gaza since late 2023. If you look at our actions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria, the number of people—civilians, including women, children, and the elderly—who have died is staggering. And when you look at how Israel behaves in the Middle East today, it's clear they are launching attacks in countries all around the region. And we support it. No one protests. They decide to attack southern Lebanon, and they do. They decide to attack Syria, and they do. We decide to attack the Houthis, and we do. We don’t care about the Constitution, the law, or the lives of civilians. This is the point we've reached. « — John J. Mearsheimer, March 27, 2025.

 

See also: 

Max Blumenthal (March 25, 2025) - Hegseth Reveals US War Plans. (video)

Max Blumenthal (March 25, 2025) - Why did Jeffrey Goldberg leave the ‘bomb Yemen’ Signal chat?

Macklemore (March 23, 2025) - Once You Learn the Truth About Palestine, You Can't Unlearn It.

Martin Armstrong (March 17, 2025) - Ahead of Iran War, Capital Flows Flee the US and Europe.

Gerry Nolan (March 18, 2025) - Yemen Is Where Empires Go to Die.

Helena Glass (March 16, 2025) - Back Door World War III - A Netanyahu-Trump Collaboration.

BlackRock Merz: "Germany is Back!" Yes, in the 1930s | Alex Krainer

On Friday, March 14, 2025, Germany's soon-to-be Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, reached a deal with the Green Party to secure a massive infrastructure and defense spending bill. "Germany's back!" said jubilant Merz. "Germany is making its great contribution to the defense of freedom and peace in Europe." The deal will exempt defense spending from the constitutional debt brake and create a €500 billion fund to finance projects outside of the normal budgetary spending. Among other things, this will enable Germany to boost aid to Ukraine.

» The EU is driving to rearm Europe and hijack ten trillion euros of European savings to militarize the old continent. «

 Full disclosure: The moustache of BlackRock Merz is not real - it was skillfully photoshopped.

Today, the Bundestag will vote on constitutional amendments that could remove fiscal restraints and unleash a massive boost to military spending, which could ultimately reach up to €1.7 trillion. How much money is that? It's a cool €20,400 per man, woman, and child in Germany. Germany is back, indeed, but not exactly in a way anyone hoped for.

It's the 1930s all over again, and it's not just Germany. In France, Emmanuel Macron too is looking to boost the military-industrial complex, along with France's nuclear arsenal and future hypersonic missiles. Across the channel, Sir Keir is obsessing about conscriptions, scotching up "coalitions of the willing," and sending British troops to Ukraine. The EU is driving to rearm Europe and hijack ten trillion euros of European savings to militarize the old continent.

 » For the naturally cautious German nation to become a bunch of cannibals, 

it first had to sink into the economic misery and moral oppression of the 1920s. «

 Timofey Bordachev, 2024.

[...] The cost of this bonanza might come in the guise of early death for their children, who'll be forced to fight our future wars as, to paraphrase Herr Merz, they make their "great contribution to the defense of freedom and peace in Europe." Of course, we can trust the slogans; Merz is a BlackRock man, and all he wants is what’s best for all of us, without regard to the many billions BlackRock invested in Ukraine. It’s not about money, you see, it’s about freedom and peace.  

 

The moment French fighter jets collided during a training session.

Pilots ‘found unconscious’ - March 25, 2025. 

 

After all, when was the blood of innocents spilled for anything less than such lofty goals like civilization, enlightenment, progress, democracy, freedom, and peace? The fact that the whole juggernaut always turns out to be so profitable for all the usual suspects must be one of those mystery virtuous cycles of civilizational progress. They mobilize capital to defend peace and freedom, and then they make out like bandits every time!

 

Quoted from:
Alex Krainer (March 25, 2025) - "Germany's back!" (Yes, in the 1930s).

 

"Britain is now outstripped only by Germany in its preparations for war with Russia. The soon-to-be new German Chancellor, Merz, has told the German people that they must spend 800 billion euros more on weapons for the coming war with Russia. This is the Russia that, only two years ago, was supplying Germany with cheap and dependable gas, on which their entire industrial and economic strength had been built." — George Galloway, March 23, 2025. 

See also:

Alex Krainer (March 18, 2025) - The Tragedy of Europe's Idiocracy.

 Martin Armstrong (March 21, 2025) - Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable.

Martin Armstrong (March 1, 2025) - Europe Will Go to War around May 15, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct.

TPR (March 11, 2025) - The ECB's Dystopian Digital Euro Dictatorship Set to Launch in October 2025. 

Cyrus Janssen (May 8, 2024) - How the US Destroyed the German Economy. 

Timofey Bordachev (February 19, 2024) - Western Europe Could Become the New Ukraine.

Bullish Weekly Price Action in US Stock Indices & Stats | Guilherme Tavares

From a price action perspective, the latest weekly close was quite bullish. Since the 70s, there have been few instances when the SPX reclaimed its 50-week MA within just 1 week after losing it, having previously been in an upward trend.

Average return 5 weeks later: 2.95%, positive 83% of the time.

Guilherme Tavares, March 25, 2025.

 

 NYA, SPY, ES, S&P 500, NQ, YM (weekly candles): 

Weekly Pivots and Retracement Levels.

 

Wednesday, March 26: Continuation or Reversal?

 

Frank Ochoa (March 25, 2025) - Pre-Market Video:
Last Week Compression. This Week Bullish Expansion? (video)

 Oppenheimer: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Trajectory (2020-2025): 

Buy March 23. From April high sideways-to-down into mid May low.

BoA: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Pattern (2015-2025): 

"Buy April Dip for May Rip."

 

Jeff Hirsch: April is the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and
fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good.

 

Carl Futia : June S&P E-mini futures headed for new bull market highs. 

Support is now 5800. 

 

Tom Pizzuti (March 25, 2025: "I’m not wholly certain that the wave iii low was set on

March 13th. and thus, open to a new low to complete iii. Of course, I could be wrong."

 

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

See also:
TPR (March 23, 2025) - Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2.

Once You Learn the Truth About Palestine, You Can't Unlearn It | Macklemore

I started learning about the history of the Israeli occupation, the political ideology of Zionism, and Israeli settlers of the West Bank. I was watching videos coming out of Gaza and crying with friends. I started learning about how colonization, capitalism, and white supremacy are interconnected and essential to each other’s existence, and how they were at the root of the issue. However, for the people of Palestine, that struggle has never ended since 76 years ago.

Children climb through rubble after I$raHell unleashed another huge campaign of bombardment

on Gaza, slaughtering more than 430 Palestinians, including 180 children on March 22, 2025 alone.

 

I was taking it all in and I was silent. I was scared. I was thinking about myself. I didn't want to be labeled anti-Semitic. I didn't want to get canceled and lose my career. I didn't want to lose fans. I didn't want to offend anyone.  

 

But at a certain point, I couldn't believe those voices anymore. My heart had just enough cracks in it that the light of Palestinian resistance struggle and unwavering faith cracked it open. I was experiencing what happens when the internal pain from being silent outweighs the risk of speaking up in moments of injustice.

 

» It is our moral obligation to protest or we are complicit. « 

Macklemore, March 22, 2025.

And once you see it, you can't unsee it. Once you learn the real history, you can unlearn it. Once you get past the media and the White House focusing solely on October 7th, once you begin to look at October 6th, 5th, 4th and the 75 years before of oppression and displacement, that's when the truth opens up. 

 

And once you look under the hood and realize our government officials are bought and paid for by the Israel Lobby, you can't look at our so-called democracy the same way. Once you understand that our tax dollars are funding a genocide that we are watching in real time in the palm of our hands, I believe it is our moral obligation to adamantly protest the atrocities we are witnessing and funding or we are complicit.

Quoted from:

Macklemore's full speech in support of Mahmoud Khalil, Palestine, and civil liberties during the event featured by Mahmoud Khalil's legal team, organizers from The Palestinian Youth Movement, The People's Forum, union leaders, Macklemore, and Alana Hadid, New York City, March 22, 2025.

 

GOAT Genocide-MIGA Don continues to fully approve, back, and finance I$raHell's mass killings of

civilians in Gaza and the West Bank while attempting to silence and deport his critics within the US.

» The single greatest threat to freedom of speech in the US is Israel and its supporters

here in the US. [... ] It's just shocking, and one wonders where all this leads. «
American political scientist Prof. John J. Mearsheimer, March 18, 2025.

 

 Mossad puppets do what the Mossad expects them to do, or else. Ask JFK.

 

See also:

Helena Glass (March 16, 2025) - Back Door World War III - A Netanyahu-Trump Collaboration.

Norman Finkelstein (March 16, 2025) - Donald Trump and the Genocide in Gaza. (video)