Wednesday, January 15, 2025

I'm Gonna MAGA You, Baby ! │ Pepe Escobar

It’s the greatest show on earth – unleashing a double bill of New Paradigm and Manifest Destiny on crack. We are the greatest. We will rock you – in every sense. We will crush you. We will take whatever we want, because we can. And if you wanna walk away from the US dollar, we will destroy you. BRICS, we’re coming to get ya. Trump 2.0 – a mix of professional wrestling and MMA played in a giant planetary cage – is in da house, starting next Monday.

 A larger-than-life PsyOp to change the narrative.

Trump 2.0 aims to be in the driving seat of the global financial system, in control of the world’s oil trade and LNG supply, and on strategic media platforms. Trump 2.0 is gearing up to be an extended exercise in the capacity to hurt The Other. Any Other. Hostile takeovers – and blood on the tracks. That’s how we “negotiate.” Under Trump 2.0, global tech infrastructure must run on US software, not just on the profit front, but also on the spy front. AI data chips must be American only. AI data centers must be controlled by America only. “Free trade” and “globalization”? That’s for losers. Welcome to neo-imperial, techno-feudal mercantilism – powered by US tech supremacy.
 
Trump’s National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, has named a few of the targets ahead: Greenland, Canada, assorted cartels, the Arctic, the Gulf of “America,” oil and gas, and rare earth minerals. All in the name of strengthening “national security.” A key plank: total control of the “Western Hemisphere.” Monroe Doctrine 2.0 – actually the Donroe Doctrine. America First, Last, and Always.

Why the Chessboard Needs to Be Rejigged
Well, let’s delve a bit into pesky material imperatives. The Empire of Chaos faces a humongous debt, owed to the usual suspect loan sharks, that may only be—partially—repaid through selected export surpluses. This would imply re-industrialization—a long, costly affair—and securing smooth military supply chains. Where will the resource base come from for this Sisyphean task? Washington simply cannot rely on Chinese exports and rare earths. The chessboard needs to be rejigged—with trade and tech unified under US unilateral, monopoly control.
 
Plan A, so far, was to simultaneously confront Russia and China: the two top BRICS and key vectors of Eurasia integration. China’s strategy, since the start of the millennium, has been to trade resources for infrastructure, developing Global South markets as China itself keeps developing. Russia’s strategy has been to help nations recover their sovereignty; actually helping nations to help themselves on the sustainable development front. Plan A against the concerted geoeconomic and geopolitical strategies of the Russia-China strategic partnership miserably failed. What has been attempted by the ghastly, exiting US administration has generated serial, massive blowbacks.
 
Next best option: Plunder the Chihuahuas.

So, it’s time for Plan B: Looting the allies. They are already dominated Chihuahuas anyway. The exploitation show must go on. And there are plenty of Chihuahuas available to be exploited. Canada has loads of fresh water, plus oil and mining wealth. The Canadian business class, in fact, has always dreamed of deep integration with the Empire of Chaos. Trump 2.0 and his team have been careful not to name names.
 
When it comes to the Arctic as a crucial, evolving battlefield, there may be a vague allusion to the Northwest Passage, but never a mention of what really matters: the Northern Sea Routethe Russian denomination; the Chinese call it the Arctic Silk Road. That’s one of the key connectivity corridors of the future. The Northern Sea Route encompasses at least 15% of the world’s unexplored oil and 30% of the world’s unexplored natural gas. Greenland is smack in the middle of this New Great Game—capable of supplying years of uranium, as much oil as Alaska (bought from Russia in 1867), plus rare earths—not to mention providing useful real estate for missile defense and offense. Washington has been trying to grab Greenland from Denmark since 1946. There’s a deal with Copenhagen in place guaranteeing military control—mostly naval. Now Greenland is being revamped as the ideal US entry point into the Arctic Great Game against Russia.

At the St. Petersburg forum last June, I had the privilege of following an exceptional roundtable on the Northern Sea Route: that’s an integral part of Russia’s 21st-century development project, focused on commercial navigation—“We need more icebreakers!”—and bound to surpass Suez and Gibraltar in the near future. Slightly over 50,000 Greenland residents—which already enjoy autonomy, especially vis-à-vis the EU—would more than accept a full Danish exit; Copenhagen actually abandoned them in 1951. Greenlanders will love to profit from vast US investments. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov went straight to the point: “The first step is to listen to the Greenlanders”—comparing it to how Russia listened to the residents of Crimea, Donbass, and Novorossiya vis-à-vis Kiev.


What Trump 2.0 actually wants from Greenland is crystal clear: total militarization; privileged access to rare earths; and the commercial exclusion of Russia and Chinese companies. Chinese military expert Yu Chun noted that “soon, the long-desired ‘golden waterway’ of the Arctic Ocean is expected to open, allowing ships to traverse the Pacific Ocean and sail along the northern coasts of North America and Eurasia into the Atlantic Ocean.” As the Northern Sea Route is “a key element of Sino-Russian cooperation,” it’s inevitable that the US’s “strategic vision is to prevent the establishment of a ‘golden waterway’ between China, Russia, and Europe by controlling Greenland.”

Freak Out on the Chihuahua Front
On the wider Chihuahua front, activity is frantic. Assorted Davos/Deep State-linked elites across NATOstan—from Europe to Canada—are in the process of being replaced by new, Trump 2.0-affiliated elites. That’s indissociably linked to the Looting the Allies strategy: the further destruction of the vassal EU economy to strengthen the heart of the Empire. In Germany, the AfD’s Alice Weidel—pragmatic, intellectually capable—offers a quite intriguing perspective. She is stressing, on the record, that Germany needs to restart importing raw materials and cheap natural gas—let’s reopen Nord Stream—from Russia.

That opens the tantalizing possibility that Trump and his factotum Elon Musk fully realize that Germany is worthless to the US as a de-industrialized backwater—even under the overall framework of a hardcore neoliberal asset-stripping offensive. Of course, Trump 2.0 will extract a hefty price for Germans to get a revitalized nation back.

Trump 2.0 at least holds the
dubiousmerit of a relatively realistic reading of the chessboard; Russia, India, China—the Primakov triangle—as well as Iran have become too powerful to be looted. So, the next best option is: Plunder the Chihuahuas. The blowing up of Nord Stream, as ordered by the Biden crime family—as detailed by Sy Hersh—was a gleaming starter.

The future of NATO in the Great America project is now up for grabs. Gotta pay up—or else: the contribution of each member nation should go up to 5% of GDP instead of the current 2%. Talk about a 150% price hike. Incidentally, Trump so far has not even muttered the nonsensical expression “Indo-Pacific.” For all practical purposes, Trump is telling NATO to take a hike. In the event of a double NATOstan annexation of Canada and Greenland, the US may even be able to match Russia’s resource base. Arguably, that’s the key rationale for unleashing this New Great Game. Forget “multipolarity.” BRICS, take note.

 
I’m gonna MAGA you, baby! 

The most intriguing side plot is, of course, Elon Musk. Trump badly needs Musk’s massive social media/propaganda digital megaphone. Simultaneously, on the Chihuahua front, the platinum sidekick wants to profit from a Europe capable of assessing enough energy, raw materials, and loads of consumers with solid purchasing power. The facts on the ground already spell out the “rules-based international order” being replaced in a flash by a no-rules international disorder. After all, international law has already been abolished by the Empire of Chaos itself (that’s bipartisan)—when it comes to illegal, unilateral sanctions, theft of financial assets, or legitimization of genocide and head-chopping “moderate rebels.”

Trump 2.0 will be nothing but enforcing a de facto phenomenon: a post-historical disorder. End of History—that was always for suckers. All of this incendiary chain of events is on a roll essentially because of one single reason: the Empire of Chaos lost the proxy war in Ukraine. What remains to be discussed is the modality of the surrender. So, it’s no wonder Trump had to come up with a seductive, but still fraught-with-danger, larger-than-life PsyOp to imperatively change the narrative.


 

Monday, January 13, 2025

Hurst Cycles Forecast Bearish Q1 for S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

The first quarter of 2025 is expected to be bearish for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Following the 40-day cycle trough observed in early December, the S&P 500 is expected to form a 80-day cycle trough around mid-January, i.e., this week.
 
 S&P 500 down into late March or early April.

A significant cycle trough in the first few months of 2025 is anticipated, likely around March or April. The price action as it exits the 80-day cycle trough will be crucial in determining the strength of the recovery or the continuation of the bearish trend.

 NASDAQ down into May.

The NASDAQ's 20-week cycle trough was formed in mid-December, and a significant 18-month cycle trough is expected around May 2025. A weak bounce from this week's low would indicate further bearish movement into May.

Sunday, January 12, 2025

2025 Gold Forecast │ Namzes

Big picture: November 3, 2022, marked the 8-year cycle low in Gold, and we are currently in a secular bull market. The overall trend, which shows an upward bias from Q2 2025 onwards, is illustrated below:


The positioning of the current 4-year cycle low is challenging to determine, as the cycle is irregular and not as robust as in other markets. The average 4-year cycle, shown below, suggests a low occurring in spring 2025. However, as seen, this cycle exhibits significant variation. The best estimate is that, if it does occur, it will likely be in March 2025, featuring a rapid sell-off and recovery rather than a prolonged bottoming process:


The 18-month cycle also exhibits some variation, with two potential paths shown. The last low occurred in October 2023, meaning that either November 14 marked the low, OR the low is still ahead, potentially in spring 2025, which could coincide with the 4-year cycle low:


The shorter, tradable composite cycle is shown in red. The bottom panel displays statistics for the individual cycles. The 40-day cycle is expected to peak and then move downward into the January open, followed by an upward movement into the early February 20-week cycle peak. This period also marks the seasonal peak, when the topping window opens:


Seasonality is shown below with high-confidence zones. The topping window opens in early February, with the seasonal low occurring in the third week of March. Additionally, there is a high-confidence zone from July 26 to September 2, during which the market has risen in 85% of the past 26 years:


The most similar years (though based on a small sample size) experienced some consolidation followed by a move higher, with an 87% correlation:


Conclusion: Gold is in a secular bull market, and the most likely short-term path is as follows: consolidation for a week leading into the January 17 OpEx, followed by an upward move into early February. After that, the market is expected to decline into the third week of March. The 2,400-2,450 range provides strong technical support for any correction. From there, the market is likely to move higher, with the July 26 to September 2 period being a high-confidence zone. The next upside target is 3,000+ in the second half of 2025, with 2006 serving as the best proxy year (shown in purple):

 Consolidation into January 17 OpEx – up into early February – decline into third week of March
(2,400-2,450 strong support) – up into July 26 to September 2 top (3,000+ target) – steep decline in Q4 – up into mid 2026.

 

Possible Head and Shoulders Top in the S&P 500 | Stephen Suttmeier

The S&P 500 dropped 2.5% in December 2024, which means that the month of December did not live up to its bullish seasonality. We view this as a risk for January, the first Quarter and the first half of 2025. The upside gap in the 5,864 to 5,783 area triggered by the 2024 Presidential election offers big support in early 2025. 

S&P 500 (daily candlesticks with moving averages).

 
If the S&P 500 fills this gap, the risk is for a November into January head and shoulders top that would expose bigger support at 5,700-5,650. Until then, the shoulder peaks at 6,017-6,050 offer key resistance on the S&P 500 ahead of upside counts at 6,150-6,180.


Markets Amidst Trump 2.0: Geopolitics & Geoeconomics in 2025 | Simon Hunt

In recent years, I have analyzed several long-term cycles, including demographic, economic, weather, war, inflation, and interest rate cycles. To my surprise, they all appear to converge around 2028. While geopolitical tensions will likely remain tense in 2025, the ultimate crisis may emerge as these cycles align.


Continuing US Economic Decline and Stock Market Crash by September 2025
The US economy is weaker than portrayed. Employment data, revised down for the first quarter, shows a likely weak second quarter, with retail sales, adjusted for inflation, declining last year. Big US companies will be laying off thousands. The Biden administration has inflated economic indicators, but the reality is far bleaker.

 S&P 500 Bull-Trap Reversal, Rotation Fragility, and Cycle Risk in 2025.

I anticipate a sharp stock market drop by September 2025, with the S&P 500, the NASDAQ and tech stocks (Mag 7) falling by 20% to 40%, respectively. By Q4, Trump’s policies—tax cuts, deregulation—will take effect, and governments will likely respond with fiscal and monetary stimulus. Over the next few years, equity, base metal, and precious metal markets may surge. This will be highly inflationary, possibly mirroring the 1980s, when US CPI surpassed 13% and global inflation hit 15%. The key question will be the impact on long-term bond yields. Bond vigilantes will likely push 10-year US Treasury yields into double digits, with similar trends globally (excluding China), leading to a crash in asset prices, especially in an already highly leveraged system with a 360% debt-to-GDP ratio. 
 
The primary drivers of inflation are excess liquidity and rising wages, along with a trend where a larger share of wages is being allocated to capital on corporate balance sheets. I expect US CPI to remain elevated, with the official CPI possibly reaching 13%, mirroring 1980 levels. However, John Williams of Shadow Government Stats estimates the real CPI averaged 10.8% last year. This persistent inflation will push long-term interest rates into double digits, likely triggering a crash in the debt-laden global system. Comparing current inflation to the 1970s, we see a pattern of volatility, with asset prices potentially deflating before structural inflation resurges, driving CPI to double digits.

Empire Cycle, Risks of War, BRICS, and the Emergence of a Multipolar World Order
Today we have two major powers—one established (US), the other emerging (China)—each with conflicting goals. One seeks to maintain global dominance, while the other rejects that vision. The only resolution could be through a significant crisis, possibly war. Afterward, we might see the emergence of a multipolar world, but this will likely take place in the early to mid-2030s, once we’ve gone through the crisis. The empire cycle, as outlined by voices like Ray Dalio, typically culminates in revolutions, internal conflicts, and proxy wars, followed by political and debt restructuring before a new world order emerges.
 
 Geopolitical tensions will continue to simmer through 2027,
with open conflict likely not breaking out until 2028.

The current geopolitical and geoeconomic picture is shaped by several major cycles: Since 1991, and potentially as far back as 1946, the US has sought to weaken Russia in order to control its vast natural resources. Simultaneously, China has emerged as America’s primary competitor, and to maintain hegemony, the US must constrain its rise. A related theme is Washington’s growing concern over the BRICS nations, which, if they mature into a serious rival, could undermine US dominance, particularly over the dollar. The war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East fit into this broader geopolitical strategy. Israel has long served as America’s foothold in the Persian Gulf, and a key aim of Trump’s foreign policy could be to disrupt the China-Russia alliance while isolating Iran, given their strong ties. The US has already made progress in Brazil, where key ministries are anti-BRICS and pro-Washington, with President Lula aware of the risks of opposing the US. Despite potential challenges for BRICS under Brazil’s leadership, the group’s recent expansion with Indonesia’s full membership is a significant shift, especially in South Asia.

Geopolitical concerns are at the forefront for many investors, and they’re my primary worry. It’s not a matter of if war will happen, but when. Geopolitical tensions will continue to simmer through 2027, with open conflict likely not breaking out until 2028, though this is my best-case scenario. In the worst-case scenario, Israel, after defeating Hamas and Hezbollah, may decide to attack Iran. In response, Iran would retaliate with overwhelming force, using advanced missile technology, including hypersonic missiles, capable of bypassing Israeli and US defense systems. While the risk of war is high before 2028, I believe open conflict will likely occur no sooner than then.
 
Weather Cycles, Severe Drought in the US in 2025, and Global Food Supply Shortages by 2026
However, one cycle that remains largely unaddressed but could disrupt Trump’s domestic agenda is the weather cycle. This cycle, particularly the Gleissberg cycle, a 90-year pattern, is aligning with US drought cycles for the first time since the 1930s. This could mirror the impact of the Dust Bowl. As the cycle begins to take effect this year, reports from areas like Pennsylvania indicate food shortages—beef and chicken in particular—which could drive soaring food prices by 2026. This will pose significant challenges for Trump’s efforts to regenerate America, especially considering the global nature of this issue, as the US is a major food exporter.

Shawn Hackett on weather cycles, their relationship to price action in agricultural commodities,
and the potential for a major drought in the US in 2025 based on the 89-year Gleissberg cycle. (see also [HERE])

The weather disruptions are linked to a shift in the Atlantic Ocean’s cycle, transitioning from a 40-year warming phase to a cooling phase starting in 2025. Historical parallels show that this cooling period could cause extreme weather, including shorter growing seasons and disrupted food production. Additionally, the Sun’s quiet phase, along with the 60-year Yoshimura planetary temperature cycle and the 90-year Gleissberg cycle, will likely exacerbate these effects, creating a pattern of climate instability not seen since the early 1600s. This emerging cycle, largely overlooked, could lead to global food supply shortages and soaring food prices, impacting markets, debt, and interest rates.

Two-Year Commodity Boom: Rising Food, Crude Oil, Copper, and Gold Prices
Food prices are expected to rise sharply, and by 2026, oil prices are likely to increase despite efforts by President Trump. Disruptions, such as sanctions on Iran, could lead to China sourcing oil from Russia instead. By 2028, oil prices could surpass $150. Once inflation cycles begin, they often become self-perpetuating as people hedge by buying in advance and companies stockpile goods. For example, copper prices could double from $7,000 to $14,000 by late 2027, reflecting the inflationary dynamics at play.
 
While commodities are underperforming equities, they are relatively cheap and primed for a rebound, especially with inflationary pressures. Precious metals have already shown strength, and sectors like energy and food may follow, particularly if weather disruptions occur. Although we won't enter a supercycle until the early 2030s, we could see a two-year commodity boom. This period will set the stage for a return to 4% global GDP growth, marking the true supercycle.

 Although we won't enter a Commodity Supercycle until the early 2030s
we could see a two-year commodity boom.

Gold had a remarkable 40% rise last year, signaling inflation concerns and currency instability. Central banks are diversifying into tangible assets like gold, and both China and Russia hold significant, underreported gold reserves. If China’s currency faces pressure, it could announce gold backing, possibly from its 25,000 tons of gold. Russia holds about 12,000 tons. The BRICS nations may also introduce a gold-backed currency in the next five years, further driving gold's upward trajectory over the next decade.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Decline to 0.90 by the End of 2025, and as Low as 0.65 by 2028
The dollar, often referred to as the "king of currencies," is expected to peak around 110 on the dollar index in the coming months before beginning a decline. By the end of 2025, it may hover closer to 0.90, and by 2026, closer to 0.80. By 2028, the dollar could fall as low as 0.65, marking a substantial decline ahead. Policies such as trade tariffs could impact the dollar, with some close to the Trump camp suggesting he may favor a weaker dollar to boost exports. However, the broader trend is clear: increasing trade among BRICS nations, excluding the dollar, will reduce demand for the currency.

China's Economic Recovery in 2025 and Bull Market into 2028
Despite recent challenges, the Chinese equity market has surged, suggesting potential for an inflection point. A key shift in China is the transition to collective decision-making, moving away from President Xi’s sole influence, likely driving fiscal and monetary expansion. I expect a sharp recovery in China’s economy in the latter half of 2025, boosting global performance. The Shanghai Composite will likely mirror global market trends—approaching a peak, followed by a correction, and then a bull market into 2028. Despite negative narratives, China’s consumer spending is up 10%, and the property market appears to be bottoming out. Consumption patterns are shifting, but not necessarily unfavorably.
 
 
See also: 

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Parties | Robert Miner

Since 1949, the typical pattern of a Post-Election Year is generally flat until late March. The second and fourth quarters are notably bullish, while the first and third quarters tend to be less so. A significant correction in the third quarter is usually followed by a bull trend into year-end. Since 1981, the average trend in Post-Election Years has followed a similar structure but with consistently higher returns (average performance of all Post-Election Years since 1949 +8%, since 1981 +15%).
 
Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.
 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%.

That said, Post-Election Year returns have historically favored 1st-Term Democrats. Since 1949, there has been only one instance of a loss during a Post-Election Year with a 1st-Term Democrat, while 4 out of 6 1st-Term Republicans saw losses.
 
 Market Action in Post-Election Years under Republicans and Democrats since 1953.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch, January 14, 2025.

Data suggests caution in the third quarter during a 1st-Term Republican administration, and the first quarter is typically the worst-performing. Swing traders should wait for the Spring Low to occur between late March and early April before entering long positions.
Post-Election Years generally show strong second-quarter performance with a consistent bull trend from the Spring Low to the Summer High (which can occur as early as mid-May), with an average return of around 4%. The Summer High period, from June to August, sees positive returns only in about one-third of Post-Election Years. 
 
The third quarter often trends sideways or down into the Fall Low in late September, with an average decline of around 7% from the Summer High. Since 1949, only one Fall Low to Year-End period has resulted in a loss, compared to an average gain of 7.6%. Since 1981, every Post-Election Year has seen positive gains from the Fall Low, making the Fall Low to Year-End rally the most consistent trend. Since 1981, each Post-Election Year has closed above the lows of September, October, and November, even if some years briefly dipped below. 

Saturday, January 4, 2025

Kondratiev Waves Aligned with Solar Cycles | Leonty Miroshnichenko

If cosmophysical periods influence the climate, changes in crop yields, epidemic disasters, and creative productivity, it is difficult to imagine that these rhythms would not be reflected in the economy. The economic cycles discussed in modern literature on the dynamics of economic indicators are well-known space (natural) periods. It was through the study of variations in economic indicators that it was first understood that the dynamics of such a complex system are not described by a single cycle or rhythm, but by a set of cycles, i.e., a spectrum.

Data on Economic Conditions ("Kondratiev waves") versus Solar Activity (SA) shows that the turning points of
economic fluctuations are closely aligned with some maximums of the Wolf number. The dates of SA maxima
and minima prior to 1749 were reconstructed from indirect historical and geophysical data.

The spectrum of economic cycles exhibits a number of peaks, with the most significant periods being: 3.5, 5.5, 8.0, 11.0, 18.0, 20–22, and 54 years. Short periods (e.g., the 3.5 year Kitchin cycle) can have certain regional characteristics. On the other hand, long economic cycles must apply to the entire global economy. These include the long "Kondratiev waves" (54 years), named after the prominent Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev (1892–1938). The graph above shows data on economic conditions ("Kondratiev waves") versus solar activity (SA). The turning points of economic fluctuations closely align with some maximums of the Wolf number. The dates of solar activity maxima and minima prior to 1749 were reconstructed from indirect historical and geophysical data.

Updated December 2, 2024.

The "Kondratiev waves" have been clearly traced in the world economic system since the early eighteenth century, appearing in many indicators simultaneously—such as industrial production, wholesale prices, and the number of innovations in industry and agriculture. Although the parameters of these fluctuations change slightly, reflecting evolutionary changes in the world economy, the cyclical nature persists to the present day. There are various theories about the origin and nature of these fluctuations, which indicates that the issue remains unresolved. In this book, we are primarily concerned with the possible connection between the "Kondratiev waves" and solar activity and ecology. In other words, the question arises: Is there synchronism between the peaks of the "Kondratiev waves" and the cosmophysical parameters?

» On average, the difference between the peaks and troughs of solar activity and economic cycles does not exceed six months. «
88% of recessions since the 1800s and 100% of major financial crises occurred during the downturn of sunspot cycles. 

The answer is illustrated in the first graph above. It shows the positions of the extreme points of the long "Kondratiev waves"—their maxima and minima (peaks and dips). These points are determined by analyzing a large dataset characterizing the state of the world economy since the end of the seventeenth century. In this analysis, we considered the results obtained by representatives of various economic schools, each using their own independent economic indicators (indices). The turning points in the trends of the global economy are marked with arrows, and circles indicate the positions of the solar activity (SA) maxima. Dark circles represent those SA maxima located near the extreme points of the "Kondratiev waves," while light circles represent the others.

As shown in the first graph, in only two cases out of 11, the difference between the dates of the black circles (SA) and the dates of the economic peaks and troughs is 3 years. On average, the difference does not exceed half a year. Thus, changes in the world economy are clearly associated with variations in solar activity: when trends in the development of the world economy change, they are almost certain to occur at the maximum of the solar cycle. The pendulum of the economy swings in sync with solar fluctuations. Whether economic oscillations with a half-century period are self-oscillations or exogenous rhythms is secondary. It is evident that the world rhythm is introduced into the economy by Nature.

 
IZMIRAN (ИЗМИРАН – Institute of Radioastronomy and Applied Physics) is an institute within the
Russian Academy of Sciences (Российская академия наук), located near Moscow.
 
The average 11-year sunspot cycle can vary in length, ranging from eight to fourteen years. This cycle occurs due to the Sun’s magnetic poles flipping—north becomes south and vice versa—approximately every 11 years. About 11 years later, the poles reverse again, making the full solar cycle actually a 22-year phenomenon (Hale Cycle)
 
See also:

Wednesday, January 1, 2025

The Worst Final Week of the Year Since 1937 │ Wayne Whaley

The S&P finished a 23.3% year with its worst last week (-2.62%) since 1937, when it dropped -4.61%. The last week is defined as the period from Christmas to the end of the year (Dec 24-31). There aren't many strong analogs to draw insights from, but below are the four instances, post-1930, of a double-digit year ending with a 1% loss in the final week.
 
 » Five trading days later, each of those periods saw an average gain of 2.53%. «
 
It is worth noting that five trading days later, each of those four five-day periods saw positive returns, with an average gain of 2.53%. Additionally, the 1% daily moves in those subsequent five days were 7-1 in favor of the positive side. This provides some modest support for a potential reversal bounce next week, following this week's end-of-year portfolio rebalancing and tax-selling selloff.

S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Patterns │ Jeff Hirsch

The Earth at Perihelion │ January 4, 2025

According to Kepler's Second Law, the line connecting the Earth and the Sun sweeps out equal areas in equal times, causing the Earth to move faster when closer to the Sun and slower when farther away (Law of Equal Areas).

 
The Earth is furthest from the Sun and moves slowest at Aphelion, which occurs about two weeks after the June Solstice, around July 3-5, when the Earth is 180° away from Perihelion. Perihelion, when the Earth is closest to the Sun and moves fastest, occurs around January 3-4, about two weeks after the December Solstice. 
 
 
In 2025, Perihelion in New York City will occur on Saturday, January 4, at 8:28 a.m. EST, a day before the "Slight or Minor Cold" Chinese solar term (小寒) on Sunday, January 5, and when the short-term trend in US stock market seasonality typically changes. Both Friday, January 3, and Saturday, January 4, are Cosmic Cluster Days.