Friday, March 21, 2025

Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Hans: Mr. Armstrong, thank you for speaking the truth about the timeline of this war with Ukraine. Every news story here in Europe says the same thing. Russia was unprovoked. Never in my entire life have I ever witnessed such outright lies by the press. I do not see the Europeans rising up to overthrow these governments. We are sheep being led to the slaughter. You have forecasted that the euro will no longer exist, and they are rapidly moving to digital currencies, which will be, as you say, for capital control. We will not be able to leave or get our money out. [...] I think it is time to prepare for the future sooner than later.

» From about May 15th 2025 on, Europe is going into war, 
Europe will lose, and the Euro will become extinct. «
Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: It gives me no pleasure to live through Socrates’ forecasts [...] The euro has broken last year’s low and is still trading below it. We have a very serious Panic Cycle for Europe next year [2026], and they are pushing to cancel the currency’s move to digital as soon as possible. All they look at is capital controls, which will prevent bank runs and stop capital fleeing. They are trying to control their risk of the collapse of the EU. [...] Lagarde runs the ECB, pushing for the cancellation of the currency and moving to digital [by October 2025]. This is about taxes all over again.
 
» We are witnessing capital contracting in both the United States and Europe. «

[...] I have been warning that we are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe. The total outstanding government and corporate bonds globally have now exceeded $100 trillion in 2024, as reported by the OECD. As I have also been warning, the central banks have been neutered. They can no longer fight inflation by raising interest rates because government debt just explodes. Governments have NO INTENTION of ever paying off their debt. They think there is no end to this game.

 » We are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe.
Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 2026. PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. 
Major recession globally into 2028. EU prepares for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029. «

[...] While central banks are cutting interest rates, borrowing costs remain much higher than before 2022’s rate hikes because the ECM, in particular, went to negative interest rates in 2014, which only encouraged governments to issue more debt. This all comes at a time when the EU wants to fund an army and prepare for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029.

will wipe out Britain entirely. The Computer Has NEVER been Wrong. Europe Will Lose!!! «
 
[...] Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 2026, and this does not bode well for Europe or the Euro. Nearly HALF of ALL outstanding government debt among OECD countries and emerging markets and around ONE THIRD of corporate debt will mature by 2027. Our computer is showing PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. The defaults come when you cannot sell the NEW debt to pay off the old. [...] Everything is coming to the point of a major Sovereign Debt default that the government will not survive. [...] Add the trade wars and what our model shows a major recession globally into 2028; it is hard to see how many countries can even make it to 2029.

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Give Russia a Free Hand All the Way to the English Channel | Curtis Yarvin

There are no realistic American foreign-policy goals, in the usual sense, for Europe. Realistic foreign-policy goals are either military or economic. Europe is not a military threat to the United States in any way. Europe has a trade surplus with the US, which means that cutting off trade with Europe would by definition grow the US economy.

»
 Now it is Russia’s fate to again restore order in Europe. «
Curtis Yarvin, a friend of Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and JD Vance, is a forethinker of American absolute monarchy and CEO-technofeudalism, aimed at replacing the current ossified and dysfunctional American oligarchical regime. A software engineer, Yarvin began as a tech entrepreneur before evolving into a liberal heretic blogger with the pen name 'Mencius Moldbug', and eventually a talkative public intellectual, hailed by both parts of the US tech oligarchy and conservative circles.
 
Rather, under a Trump administration, the goal of US foreign policy in Europe is to impact domestic power in America. [...] The liquidation of “Ukraine,” comedian-Presidents, petrochemical magnates and all—will be an enormous blow to both State and Defense. It will suggest to all other client states that Washington can no longer guarantee their “sovereignty,” whether by diplomacy or by force. But thinking only in terms of [Ukraine being] “the Texas of Russia” is thinking way too small. Rather, Trump should give Russia a free hand not just in Russian-speaking territories—but all the way to the English Channel.

 
» There is only one way: withdraw from Europe. «
Isolationist Curtis Yarvin talking with Pete Quiñones about Trump 2.0 in 2024: Ruling by executive orders, 
the end of globalism and democracy, the withdrawal of all US forces from Europe, and leaving it to 
Russia to deal with Ukraine and the rest of the Continent, January 21, 2022.
 
The goal of a Trumpist foreign policy in Europe is to withdraw American influence from Europe. This will guarantee the defeat of liberalism on the Continent. Here in America, this will show liberals and conservatives alike that liberalism is mortal—with gargantuan effects on the morale of both. And as Clausewitz said, all conflicts are mainly about morale.

Liberal ideas are not indigenous to the region. They are Anglo-American ideas. They washed in on a tide of money, fashion, and bombs. And what nation has done more and better work, in the last two centuries, at defeating liberalism in Europe? While the Germans in the 20th century may have tried—the Russians in the 19th succeeded. [...] Now it is Russia’s fate to again restore order in Europe. Since America is stronger than Russia, Trump needs to let Putin really know it’s okay to do it. There is only one way to send this message unequivocally: withdraw from Europe.

Money Can Buy Is Trying To Grab Nord Stream Before Leaving For Good. Versailles 3.0. Make These Goys Pay Again.  
Greenland-Canada Calling. Four-Thumbs-Up.

Trump will order the withdrawal of all US forces and diplomats, all bases, embassies and consulates, from the continent of Europe. Any diplomatic conversations, if any are still necessary, can be handled by email or zoom. [...] If these facilities did not exist, no one would invent them. In their nominal purpose—peer-to-peer communication between sovereign governments—they are anachronous. In their actual purpose—client-server supervision of satellite governments—they are obnoxious. By withdrawing all American personnel stationed in Europe, Trump is not abandoning Europe—he is setting it free. Much as Gorbachev freed the Warsaw Pact.
 
Tucker Carlson talking with Curtis Yarvin about 
the Perils of American Oligarchy, September 9, 2021.
 

Yemen Is Where Empires Go to Die | Gerry Nolan

The Pentagon’s latest saber-rattling against Yemen’s Ansar Allah (Houthis) reeks of desperation. Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell has vowed a “relentless” bombing campaign until the Yemeni resistance stops targeting US and Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea. “There is a very clear end-state to this operation, and that begins the moment that the Houthis pledge to stop attacking our ships and putting American lives at risk,” Parnell declared. Translation? Washington thought a few airstrikes would be enough to scare the Houthis into submission. Instead, Yemen’s resistance is stronger than ever.

Post-Afghanistan Persistent US Delusions Syndrome (PAPUDS): “Overwhelming Force” against the Houthis?
Washington picked another fight with warriors who never bend their knee. BlackRock loves sustainability.

The Pentagon has been bombing Yemen for over a decade, and yet the Houthis control most of the country and are growing in strength. Trump’s latest airstrikes killed 53 people, but instead of deterring the Houthis, they fired 18 ballistic missiles and drones at the USS Harry Truman and its carrier group. Despite Washington and London’s constant bombardment, the Houthis have only intensified their campaign against Israeli-linked vessels. And now? Trump is trying to drag Iran into the fight, claiming, “Iran will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire.” Really? The US couldn’t even handle the Taliban. Now it’s threatening Iran?

Who’s really the aggressor? Washington’s “defensive” war narrative is laughable. The Houthis are not attacking US waters; the US is bombing Yemen. This war is not about “freedom of navigation,” it’s about defending Israel’s blockade on Gaza. Houthis have made it clear: their attacks will continue until humanitarian aid reaches Gaza. If the US truly wanted peace, it would end its blank check to Tel Aviv’s genocide. Instead, Trump is doubling down on “MIGA” foreign policy, Make Israel Great Again.

 » Trump is surrounded by Zionist fanatics who believe they’re entitled to a return on their deposit. «
Satanyahu and Ko$her Genocide-MIGA Don keep working hard on the Gaza-Riviera Project:
I$raHell closes Gaza’s last lifeline; Rafah border sealed in a latest act of genocidal siege, March 17, 2025.

And let’s not forget: the same Washington war machine that bombed Yemen for years is now shocked that Yemen fights back. This isn’t 2015 when the US-backed Saudi coalition bombed Yemen into ruins. The Houthis have evolved into a serious military force. They’ve taken down US Reaper drones, fired ballistic missiles deep into Israel, and forced global shipping routes to reroute. They have real combat experience, unlike the Pentagon bureaucrats ordering drone strikes from an office. And they are willing to die for their cause. Can the same be said for US warships patrolling foreign waters for Israel’s interests?

 
Yemen has always been where empires go to die. The Ottomans failed. The British failed. The Saudis failed. Now, the Americans are failing. Trump and the Pentagon can talk about “overwhelming force” all they want. The reality? The more they bomb, the more resistance they create. Washington picked a fight with warriors who have nothing to lose. And history is not on its side.

Quoted from:
 

Monday, March 17, 2025

Ahead of Iran War, Capital Flows Flee the US and Europe | Martin Armstrong

Comment by EKL: Your computer model tracks capital flows, [...] capital is being withdrawn globally in preparation for war. We could not make decisions in our boardroom without consulting Socrates anymore. It is unbiased and that is the most valuable asset in times of such uncertainty. God bless.

Martin Armstrong's Socrates Daily Global Capital Flows Heat Map as of March 17, 2025.
 » From about May 15th on, Europe is going into war, Europe will lose, and the Euro will become extinct. «
Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: Yes, you are correct. We are witnessing capital contracting in both the United States and Europe. It is even leaving Canada and Mexico. 

Sunday, March 16, 2025

Back Door World War III - A Netanyahu-Trump Collaboration | Helena Glass

Two Trump administration picks have now been blocked by Trump for one reason: their less-than-required adherence to Jewish ideology. Dave Weldon was chosen by Kennedy to head the CDC, and Daniel Davis, a Tulsi Gabbard pick for a top intel post, was just blocked by Trump. While both are highly qualified, their personal beliefs regarding Israel were cited as not being on board with the Israeli agenda. Anti-Semitic? Discrimination? Yes. In essence, DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) has simply been replaced with IEI – Israel, Equity, and Inclusion.

» He is a hedonist, not a war chief. They have grabbed him by the pu**y. He must do their bidding. «
From Lolita Island to Mar-a-Lago, needing one another so badly: I$raHell's Satanyahu and GOAT ZioCon MIGA-MAGA Don.
And the MIGA-MAGA gaga-crowds? Just gaga-thrilled. — March 15, 2025

I find it interesting that these Goyims within the government don’t seem to understand where they stand in the doctrine of the Kabbalah. Who did the Israeli-inserted al-Jolani choose to genocide in Syria? The Goyims. The Christian population. And now, our President of Peace and America First is bombing Yemen indiscriminately.

Good-ole friends meet again: Al-Qaeda-ISIS-Zionist-Wahhabi Head-Chopper al-Jolani and US DOS delegates in Damascus, 2025.
 
Problem: The Yemen Houthis are aligned with Iran. Iran and Russia have an alliance to protect each other. Is Trump actually inciting an Iranian retaliation in order to give Israel and the US a carte blanche justification to attack Iran? Thus, causing Russia to come to the defense of its friend and ally? A backdoor World War III, as inspired by Israel with Trump’s approval.
 
 


Saturday, March 15, 2025

The US Will Now Cannibalize Its Own Allies & Vassals to Survive | Lu QiYuan

President Trump said something very honest: “If China and the US work together, we can solve all the problems in the world.” However, the establishment elites in the United States face an ideological challenge. They are fundamentally anti-China, and the Chinese ruling elites do not accept the concept of liberal democracy. The Chinese elite, myself included, are profoundly nationalistic and patriotic. To us, social harmony and unity are more important than life itself. The love the Chinese people have for our country, especially our youth, is something Americans cannot comprehend. So the idea of China and the US running the world together—the G2 concept—was rejected by Americans from the beginning. Now, even if the Americans want to pursue that path, it is too late. The train has already left the station.

» China will form an alternative economic and political system outside of the Western world,
and the only way the US can survive is by cannibalizing its own allies and vassals. 
We are witnessing the collapse of the entire Western world. « 
 Lu QiYuan, Geopolitical Economist.

The US provoked the Ukraine war in an attempt to regime-change Russia, turn it into a US proxy, and surround and contain China. China foresaw this, which is why Xi Jinping and Putin met just a few weeks before the Ukraine war and signed a “no-limits partnership” against NATO expansion. From the perspective of Chinese elites, NATO is merely an imperial tool for US power projection. The strategic rivalry between China and the US is no longer just a competition between two countries, but between two ego systems. It is no longer China trying to bargain with its unipolar master under the United States’ global hegemonic roof. Instead, it is a competition between two separate, independent powers. The competition is now between the US-dominated Western power ego system and the China-led new ego system.

Within this Western-led ego system, when the biggest player—the United States of America—can no longer absorb nutrition from its Global South economic vassels and satellites, when it can no longer consume the energy it requires to survive from the East (i.e., China), the only way it can survive is to consume energy and nutrition from its own allies and vassals. And the first set of allies and vassals to fall victim to US cannibalism will be Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. 
 
 
» The first set of allies and vassals to fall victim to US cannibalism 
will be Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. «

This trajectory has been in motion since 2012, when China partially detached its currency from the US dollar, when the Obama administration began to aggressively suppress China’s growth, and when China started its tax reform in 2014. Over the last decade, China has slowly been recreating an alternative network with the rest of the world, as the US has been pushing us out of the original structure. From now on, China will form an alternative economic and political system with the rest of the world, particularly with East Asia, outside of the Western world. By the Western world, I mean the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan—the roughly "Golden Billion" who once oppressed the Global South. Now, through China’s rise, they are forming their own ego system, separate from the original Western-centric structure.
 
The competition and rivalry between these two ego systems mark a dangerous era for the world, because we are talking about the transfer of energy from one system to another. If this is mishandled, it could lead to the destruction of both systems. The creation of this new world system is incomplete because the financial and monetary system is incomplete. And finally, we are witnessing the integration, not the disintegration, of the Western world. Not the collapse of the United States, but the collapse of the entire Western world. 
Perhaps we should credit the new president of the United States, Donald Trump, for accelerating this process. The drama in the Oval Office between Trump and Zelensky delivered the fatal blow to Western unity. Following Trump’s tariff on Europe, we will witness the collapse of the economic and political systems of the Western-led world order. What we are familiar with is the collapse of the Soviet Union. This time, it is the collapse of the West.
 
This is the principle of capitalism, like the law of physics. The United States does not love or hate Ukraine. The goal has always been to drain Europe’s resources. This is why so many so-called intellectuals and political experts in Europe, Canada, and Taiwan are shocked by the current events, like naive kindergarten children, saying things like, "Our Papa, the United States, is abandoning us." But let me tell you this: do not be shocked, because this is only the beginning. Soon, they will be horrified by what is to come: "Our Papa is going to devour us."

 
» Now, the most important thing: What to do with the West? «
Civilization States and the Multipolar World Order.
Alexander Dugin, 2023.
 
See also:

Friday, March 14, 2025

S&P 500 Retracement Levels for the Week of March 17-21 | Low of 2025 In?

S&P 500 (daily bars) - March 14: daily reversal (Total Lunar Eclipse); close above EMA (5). After worst start of year “5” in history, March 13 possible low of 2025? Hurst cycles suggest, not yet. Average seasonality now positive; the more specific one still isn't. Mid April high, early May low possible. Next week up into Tuesday or FOMC likely. Immediate targets: November low, last week's open, high, and 0.382 level. Week of March 17-21 = Manipulation-Phase in the weekly X-AMD pattern for March. 
 
 
Larry Williams,  2000.
 
See also:

The ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s Attention | Jim Bianco

It might sound too extreme to even consider, but the idea that President Donald Trump could force some of the US's foreign creditors to swap their Treasuries for "zero-coupon" bonds—in other words, zero-interest bonds that do not mature for a century—in order to lighten the nation’s debt load is being taken seriously by some.

That’s exactly what Jim Bianco guided his clients to discuss after rumors of a so-called "Mar-a-Lago Accord" began to spread. To be clear, Bianco doesn’t anticipate this happening soon, if ever. But in many ways, that’s beside the point. Trump, Bianco said, could very well disrupt the entire global financial system within the next four years, and Wall Street needs to be ready for that.


Bianco, a market veteran with over 30 years of experience and founder of Bianco Research, explained that restructuring America’s debt is part of the Trump administration’s broader plan to overhaul global trade through tariffs, weaken the dollar, and reduce borrowing costs—all with the goal of making US industries more competitive on the world stage. Other pieces of the plan include setting up a sovereign wealth fund (which Trump has already started) and pressuring US allies to contribute more to defense spending.

“You have to start thinking big and you have to start thinking bold about what is going on here. The Mar-a-Lago Accord is not actually a thing, it’s a concept. It is a plan to basically remake some of the financial system.”

 
The term “Mar-a-Lago Accord” is a play on the 1985 Plaza Accord and the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement—two major agreements that shaped the modern global economic system, each named after the locations where they were negotiated.

Many of the ideas behind this agenda stem from a November 2024 paper by Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee to lead the White House Council of Economic Advisers. In it, the former Treasury official proposed a strategy for reforming the global trading system and addressing economic imbalances caused by the “persistent dollar overvaluation.” The paper also highlighted that President Trump has long been focused on putting American industries on a fairer playing field globally.

»
Everything that President Trump’s administration is doing will be disinflationary. «
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, February 20, 2025.
 
Bianco noted that this vision doesn’t necessarily clash with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statement that “the US still has a strong dollar policy.” This is because, while the US may aim for a weaker trade-weighted dollar (which measures the dollar’s value against that of its trading partners) to narrow the trade deficit, financial indicators of the dollar, such as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, could still rise. 

“Stephen Miran and Scott Bessent seem to be kind of singing from the same hymn sheet. The whole idea hopefully is lower the value of the dollar, lower the value of interest rates, bring down the debt burden in the country. And that’s what they’re trying to do.”

» Scott Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of the US deep state. He is the real gladiator behind Trump 2.0,
not Elon Musk. His role will be crucial in keeping the US empire alive. Bessent is extremely intelligent and capable.
Bessent’s capabilities go beyond what most people can imagine. He possesses a deep understanding of monetary, currency,
and financial systems—and, more importantly, he has real-world combat experience in financial warfare. He is a genius.
But like everyone, Bessent also has his flaws. People like him, who are highly capable and self-confident,
often don’t hide their moves or intentions. «
 
Bianco, echoing Miran’s paper, also referenced former Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar, who has long argued for a “Bretton Woods III” overhaul as part of his theory that the dollar will play a less dominant role in global finance in the coming decades. One of Pozsar’s central ideas is that other countries should pay more for the security and stability provided by the US. One potential way to do this is by swapping some of their Treasuries for 100-year, non-tradable zero-coupon bonds. If these nations needed immediate access to funds, the Federal Reserve could make it temporarily available to them via a lending facility.

Bianco emphasized that such a debt swap may never actually happen, and if it were pursued, it would require extensive international cooperation and could potentially destabilize the global financial system. However, bond markets have shown little concern so far, with Treasury trading remaining relatively calm in recent days. Still, Bianco’s point in discussing these ideas with his clients is to highlight the magnitude of the potential changes ahead.

“Take them seriously, don’t take it literally. If Trump is willing to blow up NATO, why wouldn’t he be willing to blow up the financial system?”

Reference: