Saturday, July 12, 2025

Seasonal Weakness in US Stocks During July Options Expiration | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, the Friday of July’s monthly options expiration week has shown a bearish bias for the DJIA, which declined 21 times in 35 years, with two unchanged years—1991 and 1995. On that Friday, the average loss is 0.36% for the DJIA and 0.35% for the S&P 500.

 The DJIA fell in 21 of 35 years on July expiration Friday (60%), averaging a 0.36% loss.
 
The NASDAQ has declined in 23 of the past 35 years during this week, with an average loss of 0.46%, including seven consecutive down years most recently. This trend suggests a potential seasonal bearish pattern likely linked to options trading dynamics.

 The NASDAQ declined on 23 of the past 35 July options expiration Fridays (65%), 
with an average loss of 0.46%.

For the full week, the DJIA posts the best performance, rising in 21 of 35 years with an average gain of 0.39%. However, the NASDAQ has been the weakest, declining in 21 years—including the last seven consecutively—with an average loss of 0.18%.

 The S&P 500 dropped on 21 of the past 35 option expiration Fridays (60%), 
averaging a 0.35% loss, with modest full-week performance.

The week following monthly options expiration also tends to be bearish for the NASDAQ, which averages a loss, compared to mild gains for the DJIA and S&P 500.
 
 
These patterns align with findings from a 2003 Journal of Financial Economics study, which concluded that options expirations can amplify market volatility due to institutional rebalancing. While the study focused on the S&P 500, the NASDAQ’s recurring weakness may reflect tech sector–specific dynamics. Notably, in July 2024, the NASDAQ dropped 5.2% during expiration week, coinciding with sharp, unexpected shifts in AI stock valuations. This suggests that newer market forces—such as AI-driven trading—may be intensifying historical seasonal effects.
 
 

Sunday, July 6, 2025

The S&P 500 Jumps 26% in 86 Calendar Days: What's Next? | Wayne Whaley

The S&P finished the 4th of July week at 6,279.35 and is now up 6.76% for 2025 and 13.4% over the last 12 rolling months (July 4 - July 4), currently residing at an All Time High for at least the three day weekend. 
 
You may recall that the S&P experienced an 18.9% selloff from the February 19th Close of 6,144.15 to the April 8th Close of 4,982.77, exceeding 20% if measured vs the April 8th intraday Low of 4,910.42. From that 4,982.77 Closing Low on April 8th, the S&P has now advanced 26.0%, doing so in less than a Quarter, 86 calendar days (April 8 - July 3) to be precise.  

The S&P surged 26% in just 86 days, reaching another all-time high, and has now risen 6.76% in 2025. 
Historical data shows similar rallies led to gains of 19.2%+ over the next year.
 
Looking back through post 1950 history, I can only find five prior occasions in which the S&P has advanced 25% in less than a Quarter and none of those five occasions were anywhere near an impending top. 

Certainly, one would prefer to have more than five data points from which to draw conclusions upon which to base one's market exposure but the magnitude and uniformity of the advances across the following 12 months in those five cases appears worthy of our respect. All five cases were positive over the following 1 to 12 months, up at least 19.2% one year later, 31.7% on average. None of the five cases experienced a 4% drawdown as measured from the signal Date.
 
July 5, 2025
 

Saturday, July 5, 2025

The Tale of the Leopard, the Impala, and the Hyena

The leopard had just brought down an impala—an expertly executed ambush, swift and silent. Wasting no time, it dragged the carcass toward the safety of the trees, its usual dining refuge. But just as it began its ascent, trouble arrived.

 In a grim twist of fate, the predator became prey.
 
A hyena had caught the scent and was closing in fast. Panting from the chase, the leopard started climbing, but the hyena lunged and latched onto the impala. The leopard lost its grip and tumbled to the ground. In a flash, the hyena wrestled the kill away and claimed the prize.

Still hungry and frustrated, the leopard followed from a distance, silently hoping for a second chance. But the hyena, proud and possessive, wasn't in a sharing mood. Then, it made a fatal mistake. As it tore into the impala’s belly and turned to gorge on the entrails, the leopard struck. With explosive speed, it seized the remaining carcass and bolted for the nearest tree. By the time the hyena looked up, the leopard was already halfway to the canopy.

The hyena had gambled on greed—and paid the ultimate price.
 
Enraged, the hyena jumped and clawed at the trunk, desperate to reclaim its stolen feast. But it couldn’t climb. And every time it came close, the leopard hoisted the kill just a bit higher. Eventually, it nestled into the upper branches, safe, fed, and victorious. Below, the hyena waited, hungry and humiliated.

But the story doesn’t end there: Once the leopard had eaten its fill, it descended from the tree and faced the starving hyena directly. Weakened and slow, the hyena stood no chance. The leopard attacked—and this time, it didn’t just reclaim its pride. It killed the hyena. In a grim twist of fate, the predator became prey. The leopard dragged the lifeless body up the tree. One more meal. One less threat. The tables had turned—through patience, cunning, and perfect timing. The hyena had gambled on greed—and paid the ultimate price.

The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500 | Branimir Vojcic

The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Index is at about a level which in the past resulted in corrections.
 
 
The NAAIM Exposure Index, compiled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, measures the average equity exposure of its member firms, reflecting their sentiment toward US equity markets. It ranges from -200% (fully leveraged short) to +200% (fully leveraged long), with 0% indicating a neutral stance (cash or hedged). As a contrarian indicator for swing trading, it’s often used to gauge market sentiment extremes, with the assumption that overly bullish or bearish positioning by active managers signals potential market reversals. 
 
However, its limitations—such as limited predictive power, small sample size, manager variability, and volatility—mean it’s not a standalone solution. While it can enhance market analysis, traders should approach it cautiously, recognizing that other indicators like the VIX may offer stronger contrarian signals for profitable swing trading.
 
 
 
Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 16.38 on July 3, 2025
 
See also:

Monday, June 30, 2025

Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ | David Hickson

The S&P 500 formed a subtle 80-day cycle trough around June 23, 2025, and is expected to rise toward a 20-week cycle peak in mid-July 2025 with moderate upward momentum (red dashed line). 
  
 
A decline into a 20-week trough is anticipated around mid-August 2025, with a longer-term target of 7,233 later in the year.
 

The NASDAQ is expected to continue its bullish trend, moving upward to form a 20-week cycle peak around mid-July, followed by a decline into a 20-week cycle trough expected in mid-August to early September. 
 
 
 See also: 

Saturday, June 28, 2025

The Collapse of the Genocidal Zionist Regime Is Underway | Zeinab Al Saffar

The crumbling of the grim, tyrannical, and genocidal Zionist regime is gaining pace. Why does it matter? The tyrannies of the medieval age took centuries to disintegrate under the weight of resistance. But the Zionist regime, sectarian and racist in spirit, has faced unprecedented blows in just the last two decades. 
  
The fall of Zionism is unraveling before our eyes.
 
Global opinion polls show rising hostility towards Israel, even as it retains strong support from conservative governments such as those of the US, India, and Germany. Global public opinion, especially among the youth, has turned sharply against it. This could impact future diplomatic relations, arms sales, and UN votes.

"Trump is one of the lowest, most despicable beings on the planet.
He doesn't even have morals with his own people"
Seyyed Parviz Fattah, June 28, 2025.
 
In West Asia, Israel’s favorability has long been low, and recent opinion polls show even stronger opposition, with over 90% viewing Israel negatively. So, hatred toward this apartheid and oppressive occupying regime is no longer a whisper — it’s a roar. And that roar is the drumbeat of history, pounding toward the inevitable fall of a crumbling system. Bottom line: the fall of Zionism won’t take centuries. It has already begun. It’s unraveling before our eyes. It’s good to know.
 
June 28, 2025
 

What the S&P Historically Did After Similar V-Shaped Rallies | SubuTrade

@SubuTrade highlights a rare V-shaped recovery in the S&P 500, surging 18% from a low on April 7, 2025 to a new high by June 27, 2025, a pattern historically linked to strong gains, with data from 11 past instances showing an average 1-month gain of 2.0% and a 3-month gain of 6.9%, though outcomes vary widely (e.g., -8.1% to +17.7%).

S&P 500 after it rallies 18% to a 1 year high within 3 months (1927-present).

This rebound aligns with unexpected US-China trade talks resuming in May 2025, reducing tariffs from 145% to 30% and lifting export restrictions on rare earth minerals, a move that boosted market confidence despite initial fears of a recession, as reported by Reuters on June 27, 2025.

Historical analysis of similar recoveries suggests caution, as a 2020 study in the Journal of Financial Economics found V-shaped rallies often precede volatility, with a 30% chance of a correction within 6 months, challenging the bullish optimism.

 

See also: 

Friday, June 27, 2025

Cosmic Cluster Days | July 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. The 'noise channel' serves as a signal filter, with the upper and lower limits of the channel being empirically defined. That said, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows also within the 'noise channel,' may correlate with or coincide with short-term market trends and reversals.

 Cosmic Cluster Days  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel 
  = Full Moon | = New Moon |   = Lunar Declination max North and  = max South立春Solar Terms
 
Cosmic Cluster Days in July 2025:
 Jun 24 (Tue)  | Jul 10 (Thu) | Jul 12 (Sat) | Jul 27 (Sun) | Jul 30 (Wed) | Aug 13 (Wed)
 
For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].
 
Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].  
Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE]. 
Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points, click [HERE]. 
Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].
Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].

The SoLunar Rhythm in July 2025.
 
Earth at Aphelion, July 3, 2025 at 15:55 EDT.
Mercury at Greatest Elongation on Friday, July 4, 2025 at 1:00 EDT.
Mercury at Aphelion on Monday, July 14, 2025 at 9:00 EDT.
Mercury at Inferior Conjunction on Thursday, July 31, 2025 at 20:00 EDT.

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months but is also the seventh best performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.9% average gain. Lively trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year tends to bring an inflow of new capital.

Typical Post-Election Year July: Early Strength, Beyond Mid-Month Mixed.

This creates a bullish beginning, middle, and a mixed/flat final third. On average, over the last 21 years, nearly all of July’s gains have occurred in the first 13 trading days. Once a bullish day, the last trading day of July has had a modestly bearish bias over the last 21 years. In post-election years since 1950, July has exhibited a similar pattern to the recent 21-year period with some modest weakness just ahead of Independence Day.

 
Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac are showing that since 1950, July has been the strongest month for both the DJIA and the S&P 500 in post-election years. Specifically, the DJIA has averaged a 2.1% gain, ranking first among months, with 15 positive years and only 3 negative years. The S&P 500 mirrors this, averaging a 2.2% gain, also ranking first, with 12 positive and 6 negative years. 
 
This covers 19 presidential election cycles from 1952 to 2020, providing a robust dataset spanning post-war booms, recessions, and technological shifts. A notable statistic is the 10-year streak of positive July returns for both indices from 2015 to 2024, suggesting a recent intensification of this seasonal pattern. The table below summarizes the performance:  
 

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%.
 
 
 
% of Months in Which SPY Closed higher Than It Opened From 2015 to 2024
 
 
See also:

Is Trump Being Blackmailed Over Epstein Island? | Alexander Dugin

MAGA turns on Israel—and Trump: Is Trump being blackmailed over Epstein Island? Trump has declared war on Iran at the cost of losing his core voters. Furthermore, an unprecedented wave of anti-Israel sentiment has emerged within the MAGA base. Trump has lost the majority of his previous supporters. Many Americans are now ready to go against Trump, because what Trump is doing now is in total opposition to what he has promised. The neocons who now manipulate Trump were initially against Trump. They belong to the Never Trump faction of the Republicans, but now became supporters of Trump more in order to manipulate him.
 
 
On the other hand,  Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Charlie Kirk, the main figures in MAGA—all feel betrayed by Trump. Elon Musk has abandoned Trump or is hinting, making allusions that Trump was involved with Epstein. At least, he participated in some pedophilia-related actions. That is a huge accusation. Musk has abandoned Trump’s camp before, on the eve before this Israel-Iranian war, and now the American-Iranian war has started. Another faction of MAGA—Rand Paul and Steve Bannon—recently met with Trump at the White House, urging him not to get involved in the Iranian war.

February 5, 2025.

I think that now MAGA is not just split—it is totally lost. So Trump is, more than in the first term, kidnapped, taken as hostage by globalists, by deep state, by neocons, by all of those against whom he fought during his electoral campaign. He has destroyed his political base.

Musk suggested creating his new party, possibly dubbing “the America Party, ” earlier on. The left wing of the Democratic Party, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, are already against Trump, together with people like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, Alex Jones, Charlie Kirk, Matt Gaetz, and many others. So there is doubling in new politics—Trump has lost Trump. Trump is now outside of Trump once more.

At the same time, I don’t see the importance and the power of Democrats has grown—not at all. So Democrats still have a very low profile, a very low level of support. And Trump has lost his own support incredibly fast. So there is a huge amount of people in the United States who are against the war, but who have zero political representation. Before, they were distributed between Democrats and Republicans, and now they are totally abandoned. Immediately, we have a third pole. There are globalist left liberals, globalists; there is this MAGA core—that is the millions and millions and millions. That’s a third party or a third pole or a third power whose representation is now very badly needed in the United States, because the mass of the population that is not satisfied, neither with globalists or deep state nor with Trump now, is huge.

Elon Musk has once asked his 220 million followers if they think it’s “time to create a new political party in America that actually represents the 80% in the middle,”on his social media account with 200 million people, 60 million have participated in this poll and 80% have said yes. Musk and MAGA, if they would start a new party, I think it would win in all the ongoing elections.

 Elon Musk, June 5, 2025: "Time to drop the really big bomb: Trump is in the Epstein files."

We need to follow this moment, because it is not just hesitation from parts of people supporting Trump—Trump has lost his core voters, and they have no representation after the moment of glory, after the moment of victory when they won with Trump and through Trump. They once felt that victory was so close, and now, with this new war, they have lost all hope in Trump.

So I believe the Third World War, involving the United States, could unfold in parallel with a civil war within the country—not only between two factions of the population, but a three-pole civil war. Not just one against the other, but there are liberal democrats, there is the hardcore MAGA, and there are Trumpists and neocons loyal to Trump.

And now, in MAGA in general, there is unprecedented amount of anti-Israel feeling inside the United States. Most people—mostly American nationalists and patriots—they were more or less pro-Israel. And now, it is millions and millions of people hate Israel who they believed are trying to control the American government, which is against US sovereignty. They have nothing against Jews or Israel initially, but when Israeli politicians are believed to be manipulating the American government, that is different. That is a loss of sovereignty.
 
I have never seen in my life such a huge wave of anti-Israel feelings in American society. It is not anti-Semitic, not at all—it is anti-Israel. I think that the blow against Trump is much greater than he could have suspected. So there is something much more tectonic in these changes. That was a trap for him. That was his mistake, a big error—the biggest error he has committed, maybe in all his life—with this bombing of Iran. He didn’t reach any goal. Now, the United States is at war officially against Iran. He didn’t hit the goal, and he has lost everything, more than he could permit himself to lose.

I think that maybe he was really blackmailed. Many American patriots, they say Trump was blackmailed by Mossad, because he participated in the orgies or illicit actions on Epstein Island. They blackmailed him through those networks, and that would end his presidency immediately. Because Epstein’s case is something so awful that all American people are in a state of rage against that. And if Trump is now, it seems, implicated in or participated in that—so that would end his career. But many consider that the war against Iran is confirmation of the fact that he was on the Epstein list.

 

Monday, June 23, 2025

We Have Completed Our Very Successful Attack | Donald J. Trump

June 22, 2025 01:53 AM 
 
@realOsama
September 11, 2001 12:00 PM 
 
@RealHirohito
December 7, 1941 12:00 PM 
 
Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Sunday, June 22, 2025

Already In the Thick of World War III | Alexander Dugin

Some people probably think that World War III might pass us by. That’s the "Patrick Syndrome": everything happening around us supposedly doesn’t concern us. Don’t fool yourselves. We are already in the thick of World War III. The United States has carried out a bombing strike on our ally, Iran. And nothing stopped them. Now, there’s nothing stopping them—or anyone else—from striking us next. At some point, they’ll decide that not only Iran, but Russia too should not have nuclear weapons. Or they’ll come to some other conclusion.
 
As useful as a band-aid on a corpse.

We’re already at war. They might strike if we advance. They might strike if we retreat. They can strike whenever and wherever they want. Ukraine, of course, is not Israel for the West—but it plays a similar role. Not long ago, Israel didn’t exist either. But it emerged and became a proxy for the collective West (although many Israelis would argue the opposite—that the West is actually a proxy for Israel).

Ukraine is in the same position. And it’s no surprise that Zelensky isn’t just asking, but demanding full support from the West—including nuclear weapons. The role model is obvious: the West is "Ukraine’s proxy." And by the way, the Kiev regime bombed Donbas in much the same way Israel bombs Gaza—only with fewer resources, and with Russia responding more decisively to protect its own people than the Islamic countries did.

 As more players join the war, the situation will evolve rapidly.

Our appeals to the UN and our peacekeeping efforts are now as useful as a band-aid on a corpse. If Iran falls, we’re next. Trump is entirely under the control of the neocons, just as he was in his first term. The MAGA project is over. There will be no “Great America”—only regular globalism.

Musk had already explained everything: Trump was involved in unsavory activities on Epstein’s island, and the footage is in Mossad’s hands. Musk distanced himself in time. Trump has lost his agency. He thinks he can just launch one strike—like he did with Soleimani—and then pull back. But pulling back isn’t an option. He has simply started World War III—and he’s not capable of ending it.

The MAGA project is over.
 
Now much depends on Iran. If Iran regroups and keeps fighting, it still has a chance to win. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Houthis have blocked shipping in the Red Sea. As more players join the war, the situation will evolve rapidly. China will try to stay out—until it gets hit too.
 
If Iran surrenders, it will lose itself and betray everyone else. That goes for the rest of us as well. Russia is facing a deadly choice. The question is no longer whether to fight or not—Russia is already at war. Everyone knows this, except the Patricks. The question is: the way we’ve been fighting is no longer enough. That resource has been exhausted. So now we must fight differently. In a new way.
 
June 22, 2025