Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish │ Jeff Hirsch

With a clear winner decided, the history of market gains from Presidential Election Day to year-end is encouraging. As shown in the tables above and below, the market tends to rally from Election Day to year-end, with a few exceptions due to exogenous factors.

 DJIA up 72.2% of the time, with an average gain of 2.38%.
S&P 500 up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%.
NASDAQ up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%.
Russell 2000 up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.

Profit-taking at the end of 1984 kept stocks flat after the rally from the July bear market bottom, driven by anticipation of Reagan’s landslide reelection victory. The infamous undecided election roiled stocks at the end of 2000 amid the dot-com bear market of 2000-2001. The Great Financial Crisis and the 2007-2009 generational bear market caused a further plunge in late 2008, fueled by shrinking economic data and uncertainty surrounding a change in party and the incoming, unknown Obama administration. The escalating European Debt Crisis kept the stock market on edge in late 2012.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, November 6, 2024.

Overall, from Election Day to year-end, the DJIA is up 72.2% of the time, with an average gain of 2.38%. The S&P 500 is up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%. The NASDAQ is up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%, and the Russell 2000 is up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.

Reference from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 5, 2024) - Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.
Ryan Detrick (October 28, 2024) - Best Six-Month Stretch for the S&P 500 Begins in November.

Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points │ Jeff Hirsch

The first 5-6 trading days are typically bullish, followed by weakness in the week before Thanksgiving. The DJIA and S&P 500 strength has shifted to mirror the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the most bullish days occurring at the beginning and end of the month.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, November 5, 2024

 

 S&P 500 and Nasdaq average performance during the presidential election week.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.
Ryan Detrick (October 28, 2024) - Best Six-Month Stretch for the S&P 500 Begins in November.

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for November of the Election Year 2024.
Alternative approach: 4-Year Presidential Cycle in Line with the Decennial Cycle.

S&P 500 and the 3-Month VIX Relative to the VIX | Stephen Suttmeier

The 3-month VIX relative to the VIX (VIX3M/VIX) is below 1.0 and currently oversold. This tactical sentiment indicator signals fear heading into the 2024 Presidential election. We have observed similar conditions with the VIX3M/VIX being oversold ahead of the 2020 and 2016 Presidential elections. This suggests taking a contrarian bullish view on U.S. equities and supports the likelihood of a year-end rally.

Stephen Suttmeier, November 5, 2024

 

The spot VIX Index is currently above all of its futures contracts, in spite of a drop on November 5th. This is a condition reliably associated with price bottoms (and/or worrisome elections).

Tom McClellan, November 5, 2024 

S&P 500 vs VIX Put/Call Ratio | Jason Goepfert

Volume in VIX puts was more than two times that of calls on Friday.
That's one of the highest turnovers in 15 years.
It has typically spiked at times of extreme anxiety.

Jason Goepfert, November 4, 2024.

 

 Preliminary CBOE Put/Call Volume Ratio on Nov. 4 at 2PM ET 

is officially "pretty far up there".

Tom McClellan, November 4, 2024.

 

 S&P Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections | Steve Miller, November 4, 2024.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars) | November 4, 2024.

The United States Exists for War | Scott Ritter

Anyone hoping that the United States will be a force for peace is hoping in vain. We are not a force for peace; we are not wired for that. The United States exists for war. This is what President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned us about in his farewell address in 1961, when he spoke of the rise of the military-industrial complex working in concert with Congress to undermine American democracy.

 The US proves itself globally to be the primary source of strife, war, repression, and genocide.

» Electing a new president will not change this dynamic. «

It succeeded. America's democracy today is literally a shadow of what it could and should be. It doesn’t matter that we can all go out and vote on November 5th. Just look at who we are voting for. If you believe that having Kamala Harris representing the Democratic Party and Donald Trump representing the Republican Party indicates a politically healthy America, you are mistaken. What it shows is that America is among the most unhealthy nations in the world regarding democracy and politics.

We are deeply diseased. We have an establishment that thrives on global confrontation. Our entire means of interfacing with the world—economically, diplomatically, and otherwise—is through violence. Look at how we propose to solve the Israeli-Gaza conflict: by providing billions of dollars in military assistance to Israel. We seem to have no other option. Even when we attempt to pressure Israel by stopping arms sales, it feels as though weapons are our sole contribution because it is all we know how to do. Consider Ukraine; that’s all we have.

 » Our entire means of interfacing with the world is through violence. «

In contrast, look at how China engages with the world through the Belt and Road Initiative, a $10 trillion infrastructure development program that has allowed China to win over the hearts, minds, and pocketbooks of nations while we seek to destroy everything. The primary American representative globally these days is the regional combat commander in the Middle East. If you're the ambassador of a major Middle Eastern country, your effectiveness hinges on the presence of the military representatives, because they are the ones calling the shots. The same is true in Europe and Asia; military influence is paramount.

The military is not meant to be a diplomatic agency, yet it has become the most important diplomatic agency of the United States. This reality tells us that our reason for existence is not peace; it is war. Electing a new president will not change this dynamic. Donald Trump may superficially speak the language of peace, but he is an instrument of war and power. He implies that he can project American economic power without backing it up with military force. Even when he talks about peace, it’s always underpinned by threats. For example, when he threatens Putin, claiming he’ll make those domes disappear, what does that really mean? It implies violence; that’s all we know how to do.

 Capo di tutti capi of the swamp is the donor class, a.k.a. the financial oligarchy.

» We have an establishment that thrives on global confrontation. «

This pattern persists across the political spectrum. The Democrats resort to economic violence, military violence, and political violence, just as the Republicans do. The CIA exists to undermine foreign governments, as we’ve just seen again in Georgia. The Georgian people, who held a fair and free election, find that the United States refuses to accept their democratic outcome because it was not the one we wanted. Consequently, we intervene, trying to instigate a Maidan-like revolution in Tbilisi, just as we did in Kiev.

 

» Now that Ukraine has failed, the US is preparing continental Europe for direct conflict with Russia. «
Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, November 3, 2024.

I wrote an article titled "The American Midas Touch." In ancient Greek mythology, King Midas is known for turning everything he touches into gold, but it also meant that everything he touched ultimately died. This is the American Midas Touch: we seek to turn everything to our benefit, but in doing so, we often bring about destruction. At the end of the day, we touch others and they die because we know only how to kill for our advantage. None of the candidates represent a force for peace, and America will never be a force for peace as we are currently configured.

Reference:
Scott Ritter (November 3, 2024) - Israel and Ukraine are Crumbling, and Even Trump is Powerless to Stop It! (video) 

 

 MCWGA MMXXIV

What Is the US and Where Did It Come From? | Think About This Question

 

In the nearly two and a half centuries of its existence, this country has killed millions of innocent people around the world. And it has no intention of stopping. “Nothing Personal - Just Business” - that's their favorite slogan, with which they continue to kill people all over the world, divide other countries among themselves and start civil wars.

 

  » Nothing Personal - Just Business «

ooooOoooo

 

The US was founded by Satanists and has been ruled by Satanists ever since.
This is their 'Great Seal'.
 

ooooOoooo

 

The whole world stands frozen in uneasy anticipation, waiting for the results of the presidential election in the distant land of US. There is no reason why we should have high expectations about it.

1. The outcome of the election will not change anything for Russia, as both candidates share the same bipartisan consensus that ‘Russia must be defeated’.
2. Kamala is dumb, inexperienced, and easy to control, as she will be terrified of everyone around her. All the real decision-making will be done by a coterie of top ministers and advisors plus (indirectly) the Obamas.
3. A low-energy Trump, spewing clichés like 'I'll offer them a deal' and 'I have a very good relationship with...,' will be forced to comply with the system and its rules. He won't stop the war. Not in one day, not in three days, not in three months. And if he actually attempts to do it, he could end up becoming the new JFK.
4. The only thing that matters is how much cash the new POTUS can squeeze out of Congress to finance someone else's war, fought in a far-off land. Cash to feed the American military-industrial complex and to line the pockets of the Banderite scum in Ukraine.
5. That is why, if we want to please both candidates for the highest American office, the best thing to do on November 5 is keep pummeling the Nazi regime in Kiev! 

Dmitry Medvedev, November 3, 2024

ooooOoooo

 

 
Trump's Derangement Syndrome.

Iran's Crushing Blow to the Israeli Regime is Coming | Mohammad Marandi

Iran will definitely respond to Israel's attack on October 26th because it needs to create deterrence. The Zionist regime is not a normal state; it is a genocidal entity that is carrying out a Holocaust before the eyes of the world. It conducts genocidal airstrikes on Lebanon, slaughters people in Gaza and the West Bank, regularly bombs Syria, and attacks Iran. It is a lawless regime, and the only way to stop it is to slap it down.

  » We are approaching the conclusion of what is termed Israel. «

In the past, Iran has demonstrated a significant amount of strategic patience. It can certainly outgun the Israeli regime, possessing numerous missile and drone facilities across the country. These facilities were created to protect against a potential American attack and are well secured, situated deep underground. The reason the Americans have never attacked Iran is its ability to defend itself.

The Israeli regime, on the other hand, is small, vulnerable, and entirely dependent on the West. In any major exchange, its infrastructure would be swiftly destroyed. However, Iran does not want a regional war, and neither does anyone else. It is only the Israelis who seek a regional conflict, hoping for American involvement. Iran aims to demonstrate to the world, particularly to the Global South, that it is not trying to instigate a regional war, as such a conflict would jeopardize the global economy—something no one desires.

If the Americans become involved, their military bases in the Persian Gulf region, Iraq, and Syria would be swept away. More importantly, the family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf would lose their oil and gas installations, leading to the collapse of these regimes. This scenario would further contribute to the downfall of the global economy. That is not what any sane person wants. Yet, the Israeli regime appears willing to sacrifice everyone for its genocidal interests.

 » The influential Israeli rabbi Yitzhak Yosef warns that ultra-Orthodox Jews or Haredis
could leave Israel en masse, if forced to enlist in the army. «
 

This time around, however, the Iranians will strike Israel significantly harder. Iran has hundreds of thousands of drones and missiles prepared for war and can launch nearly 2,000 drones and missiles in a single wave, with the capability to fire multiple waves thereafter—something the Israelis cannot counter.

The Iranian drones used in previous retaliations were outdated, but Iran possesses very advanced drones and missiles, including hypersonic missiles that have not yet been utilized. There are many capabilities Iran has not revealed; until now, it has focused on gathering intelligence and assessing the Israeli regime's lack of defensive ability. When the time comes, Iran will undoubtedly strike the Israeli regime, which could happen any day now, possibly tonight or tomorrow. It is inevitable.

Greater Israel—From the Euphrates to the Nile.

Conditions are expected to worsen for the Israeli regime. It has failed to make any real inroads into southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah has punished them. As this battle progresses, the situation will only deteriorate for the Israeli regime, which has bitten off more than it can chew. It is currently being hammered in both the north and in Gaza, and its global image has been severely damaged.

The people of the Zionist entity are unaware of how deeply despised they are worldwide and how poorly their armed forces are performing in Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli regime is despised across all continents, particularly among the youth. Slaughter is not an achievement. Israelis may perceive the killing of women and children as a success because they view them as Amalek, but every child killed generates more hatred globally. On the battlefield, Hezbollah has shown its ability to significantly harm the regime, not only inflicting casualties but also damaging the Israeli economy. We must always remember that the Israeli regime has far more to lose than Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran, which are under US and Western sanctions.

 

Ultimately, when a ceasefire occurs, it will signify the failure of the Israeli regime. Once ordinary Israelis wake up to the reality that they cannot win this war against the Palestinian people, the Lebanese people, and others in the region, and once they recognize the world's disgust towards them, it will mark the end of the Zionist project. This may take a few years, but we are approaching the conclusion of what is termed Israel.

Quoted from:
Seyed Mohammad Marandi (October 31, 2024) - Iran's Crushing Blow is Coming (video)

 

 

To date the US has funded 73% of military costs associated with Israel’s war on Gaza. Washington has provided $22.76 billion in military aid to Israel from October 7, 2023, to September 30, 2024, according to an analysis by Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs. This is why AIPAC sponsors the US government.

The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks | Lars von Thienen

The weekly S&P 500 shows that the nominal 180-week cycle, currently at 177 weeks, is in an early topping stage. This long-awaited time cycle has been monitored since the end of 2023 and has been cited as a key driver for the upturn lasting into this window. Now that we have arrived at this point, we need to pay close attention to the shorter-term cycles and technical indicators.

Weekly S&P 500 with nominal 180 weeks / 41-Month Kitchin Cycle topping | October 23, 2024

Before moving to the daily cycle analysis, it is worth noting that the cyclic-tuned RSI indicator has reached the upper band, indicating a "bull exhaustion" mode. This condition can turn within days into a "bulls tired" and/or "bulls exit" state, signaling that we are primed for a longer-term reversal. The same weekly cycles situation can be observed on the NASDAQ.

NASDAQ weekly cycles | October 23, 2024

Let's now examine the daily cycles, starting with the S&P 500 model.

 » The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. «

 S&P 500 daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The main cycles are the 192-day and the harmonic 89-day trading cycles. The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. The cRSI indicator shows we are nearing the upper band, which could also signal a final year-end rally before both daily cycles align with the downward-trending weekly cycle noted earlier. A similar perspective can be observed in the Nasdaq daily data.

Nasdaq Composite daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The shorter-term daily cycles with lengths of 80 and 200 trading days on the Nasdaq model are rolling over now and will likely continue into the end of 2024. These cycles are also coming into alignment with the next long-term downward swing, which is in sync with the long-term cycles shown earlier.

It's worth noting that we're seeing a divergence forming, as the market experienced a clear topping pattern in June of this year: At that time, the composite model peaked while the cRSI was breaking down below the upper band, issuing a sell signal. The price never went back to achieve a higher high, and the cRSI is indicating an even bigger divergence between the price action and the signal line. The technical indicators shown below have been adjusted to the cycles detected and mentioned above. The highlighted red or green shaded areas indicate that the higher timeframe - here the weekly S&P 500 - is also taken into consideration. 

S&P 500 - cRSI cyclic indicator | October 23, 2024

The multi-timeframe cyclic technical indicator is showing a clear divergence between price and the signal. While the weekly chart confirms another overbought situation at the time the divergence signal emerges, this provides technical confirmation of a possible top in place. A similar technical condition can be observed on the NASDAQ.

 

Nasdaq Composite | October 23, 2024

Quoted from:
Lars von Thienen (October 23, 2024) - The next wave on the horizon for the US stock markets – it is time to prepare.

See also:
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

Sergey Tarassov  (September 8, 2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025. 

Sergey Tarassov  (June 26, 2024) - 2024 DJIA vs 40 Month and 42 Month Cycles.

 Carol S. Mull (1989) - The 3 1/3 - Year Kitchin Cycle.

Edward R. Dewey (1971) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Stocks. 

 

Joseph Kitchin (1923) - Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors.

Crude Oil Prices vs. Global Excess Liquidity | Simon White

Oil prices are set to rebound due to a historic rise in global liquidity. These are strange days indeed. Policy has been eased in an economy showing scant definitive signs of accelerated slowing; liquidity conditions, which were already robust, have been turbocharged.

 

The recent rise in G10 excess liquidity to a level it has only eclipsed once before is a very positive tailwind for crude prices.

 

Reference:
Simon White (October 31, 2024) - Is Surging Global Liquidity About To Send Black Gold Soaring Too?

BRICS Will Not Kill the Dollar—War Will | Martin Armstrong

The BRICS currency was created for geopolitical reasons when the neocons transformed the SWIFT system into an economic weapon and even threatened China with the same fate if they supported Russia. Once this occurred, the neocons turned the entire world’s monetary system into a weapon of war. This is why we have BRICS; it had nothing to do with killing the dollar or backing their currency with gold.

 » All currency is fiat, even when it is gold. Just because a currency is

backed by gold does not eliminate inflation or deflation. «

Many hoped for an official announcement regarding a gold-backed currency, which failed to materialize. A gold-backed currency would be massively deflationary. The money supply could not expand with the population or in times of need without new discoveries. Just because a currency is backed by gold does not eliminate inflation or deflation. The gold discoveries of the 19th century in California, Alaska, and Australia caused significant economic upheaval, followed by wars. The fact that gold was the currency did not prevent inflation.

Spain defaulted seven times. The gold and silver they brought back from the New World led to massive inflation in Europe. Those who preach that a gold standard is the solution lack an understanding of history. They blame “fiat currency,” as if eliminating it will solve all problems. There were booms and busts throughout ancient times long before paper money existed. All currency is fiat, even when it is gold. I have shown that Southern India routinely imitated Roman gold coins because they held a premium over gold—this is fiat. Northern India and the Kushan Empire issued their own coinage primarily because they traded more with China. Southern India used imitation Roman gold coins for about 250 years, confirming that the Roman coinage was worth more than its metal content.

 

 » The purchasing power of gold fluctuated at all times. The value of a currency is determined 

by the productive capacity of its people, not by its gold reserves. «

Similar claims were made about the Euro, which also did not work out well. Why? The value of a currency is determined by the productive capacity of its people, not by its gold reserves. Japan and Germany lost the war yet rose to the top of the economic hierarchy because their populations were productive. The United States has the largest consumer-based economy, which means that everyone needs to sell their products here, requiring transactions in dollars. The US is also strong militarily, which further supports the currency's foundation.

It is time to abandon these outdated economic theories, remnants from the 18th and 19th centuries. The economy has evolved since then. The neocons are destroying the dollar and undermining the future of the United States. When we lose another one of their endless wars, financial capital will shift from New York to Beijing. Just as war diminished Britain, so will it diminish the dollar and the United States.

Quoted from:
Martin Armstrong (October 29, 2024) -  BRICS Will Not Kill the Dollar—War Will.

Global MAGA-nomics | Francisco José Fernández-Cruz Sequera

The re-election of Donald Trump will lead to significant shifts in US economic and foreign policy, emphasizing unilateral protectionism and high tariffs aimed at boosting domestic production and safeguarding American interests. This 'MAGA-nomics' approach may impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese products, intending to reverse US deindustrialization and create jobs in key sectors.

 

MAGA-nomics: The war Trump will wage in 2025.

Trump's trade rhetoric portrays free trade as detrimental to the US economy, claiming trade deficits indicate weakness and job losses. His strategy seeks not only to protect the domestic market but also to pressure other nations to enhance market access for US goods. However, such mercantilism poses risks, including potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries, which could escalate costs and inflation both in the US and globally.

 Chronicles of Western Collapse.

A drastic tariff increase could harm American consumers by raising prices and potentially increasing inflation. The confrontation with China is particularly complex, as high tariffs may prompt China to devalue its currency, exacerbating internal economic issues while potentially triggering further trade conflicts.

The European Union, a major US trading partner, would likely suffer from these tariffs, which could significantly impact its economy amidst already existing challenges. Projections indicate that a 10% tariff on EU imports could reduce the Eurozone's annual GDP growth, further straining economic recovery.

 High tariffs, radical unilateralism, and the end of globalization as we know it.

Emerging markets like Vietnam, India, and Mexico may benefit as companies relocate production away from China, realigning global supply chains and potentially harming economies in Africa. The International Monetary Fund estimates that escalating trade disputes could reduce global economic growth, affecting millions worldwide.

Trump's approach extends beyond economics to form a coalition against China's influence, integrating defense strategies within economic policies (“Free and Open Indo-Pacific”). This could deepen geopolitical tensions and potentially lead to a new pro-China bloc. The historical precedent of protectionism, such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, illustrates the risks of such policies, emphasizing the interconnectedness of global economies and the potential for widespread negative repercussions.

Reference:
Francisco José Fernández-Cruz Sequera (October 28, 2024) - MAGA-nomics: La guerra que hará Trump en 2025. (video)

Fed Policy-Driven Super Rallies and Corrections in US Stocks | Sven Henrich

The US market is at a critical juncture with a contentious election, a Fed meeting, and numerous earnings reports on the horizon. A significant liquidity rally is underway, raising hopes for a year-end rally, yet concerns about a potential corrective move linger, especially after an 11-month rise. Despite strong bullish sentiment, skepticism remains due to insufficient changes in underlying conditions and earnings not meeting expectations. The S&P 500 is now at approximately 5,800, with some analysts projecting levels as high as 6,600, but these optimistic forecasts prompt concerns about sustainability.

Super rallies and corrections in the S&P, driven by interest rate cuts and hikes (2016–2024).

 

Liquidity-driven super rallies, influenced by Fed policy on interest rates, are characterized by prolonged market increases with minimal price discovery. The first major super rally in the above chart followed the earnings recession of 2015-2016, fueled by tax cuts and global quantitative easing. Subsequent rallies occurred despite rate hikes, indicating a strong influence from central banks and government policies. These rallies often persist until liquidity conditions shift, such as through rate increases or unexpected events. 

 

Currently, global central banks are signaling easing policies, contributing to the ongoing liquidity rally. Fiscal dominance, marked by significant deficits, plays a crucial role in this environment. The unprecedented $1.6 trillion deficit in 2023 raises questions about recession potential amid fiscal stimulus. Past experiences show that downside movements typically arise when liquidity changes. The current market situation highlights a disconnect between strong policy support and underlying economic conditions. Overall, these factors suggest that the rally extend through the end of the year or into 2025, but risks remain.

 

Reference:

Sven Henrich (October 27, 2024) - NorthCast Market Update: Markets at a Crossroad. (video)

Markets expect the Federal Open Market Committee to 

cut interest rates again by 0.25% on Thursday, November 7.

 

The median Nasdaq 100 (NDX) return from October 27th to December 31st is +11.74% since 1985.  
The median S&P 500 return from October 27th to December 31st in election years is +6.25% since 1928. 

— Goldman Sachs, October 27, 2024.

 

See also:
Sven Henrich (January 14, 2024) - The Cynic’s Guide to Markets.

Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices | Richard Smith

 NASDAQ (4-hour closes) - at the top of an 82-day cycle swing.

  E-mini S&P 500 (daily closes) - at the top of an 81-day cycle swing.

S&P 500 (weekly closes) 2017-2024 vs. 180-week cycle composites of all major US stock indices.

Reference:
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities endgame? Cycles are screaming caution! (video)

 

Hurst Cycles Market Update — David Hickson, October 28, 2024.

Hurst Cycles in the S&P 500 — David Hickson, October 9, 2024.