Hurst Time-Price Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

For the S&P 500, the target for the 20-day cycle bottom was 5,812. We are currently in a bearish 80-day cycle, with a downside target set at 4,660. It has been 528 days since the 18-month cycle trough in October 2023. 

 

 S&P 500 (weekly bars).

In both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, the 40-day cycle trough is likely to occur 

next week around April 14-18, and the 18-month cycle trough around mid-May.

The average duration of an 18-month cycle is 546 days, meaning we still have some time before the 18-month cycle trough is expected. We anticipate that this upcoming trough around mid-May will be more significant than a typical 18-month cycle.

 NASDAQ (daily bars).

In the NASDAQ, the situation is similar. We are heading toward a major cycle trough, expected around mid-May. A 40-day cycle trough is likely to occur sometime next week (April 14-18), with the larger cycle trough anticipated about five weeks later.

Reference:
David Hickson (7 April 2025) - Bear Cycle Targets - Hurst Cycles Market Update (SPX, NDX, ASX, NIFTY-50, GOLD, BTCUSD) (video)

 

See also:

Martin Armstrong (April 4, 2025) - DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2.

Germany’s Final Descent into Deindustrialization | Gerry Nolan

They blew it up. Literally. As if watching the Nord Stream pipelines get surgically terrorized by US led NATO operatives wasn’t humiliation enough, Berlin just greenlit the demolition of its own functioning coal-fired power plant in Ibbenbüren, Westphalia, in the middle of an energy crisis. No enemy army invaded. No external power sabotaged it. The German government did it to itself.

This isn’t an 'energy transition'. This is energy seppuku.

 

The very plant they blew up could’ve kept homes warm and industry humming. But instead, Germany’s ruling class, wagging their tail for Ursula von der Leyen’s green fantasies and Washington’s LNG extortion racket, chose deindustrialization. They’ve become the first major economy to voluntarily plunge into managed decline, while gas prices soar and steel furnaces go cold.

 

Demolition of  the Ibbenbüren Power Plant on April 6, 2025. The fully operational 838-megawatt coal

power plant was shut down in 2021 as part of Germany’s 'green' Energiewende (energy transition).

Let’s be clear: this is not about the environment. If it were, they wouldn’t be buying dirty coal and gas from abroad while gutting their own infrastructure. This is political obedience disguised as climate policy. The message? Fall in line with Atlanticist diktats, or watch your economy get dismantled, one pipeline, one smokestack at a time.

 

When ruthlessness, vassalage, and madness have a joyful rendezvous: Germany's final descent into deindustrialization and

US energy colony status is rejoiced by the CIA-directed German government's propaganda broadcaster Deutschlandfunk: 

"Former Coal Power Plant: Demolition in Ibbenbüren a Success."

 

The demolition of Ibbenbüren is more than symbolic. It’s the self-immolation of a once-proud industrial giant, now reduced to an energy vassal state begging for overpriced American LNG, locked into permanent austerity to subsidize a war they cannot win in Ukraine.

There is no love for Germans in this arrangement. Only contempt. And still, not a whisper about the real sabotage, the Nord Stream bombing, the economic war, the slow squeeze of sovereignty. Instead, Berlin celebrates its own collapse with photo ops and press releases. If this is “progress,” it’s the kind that ends in darkness, ration cards, and a long winter of regret.

Quoted from:
Gerry Nolan (April 6, 2025) - Germany’s Final Descent: From Industrial Powerhouse to Energy Colony.

 

In a conversation with Tucker Carlson on April 4, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brought up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. He recalled how US President Donald Trump had called the Europeans 'insane' for already sourcing most of their energy from Russia. 'Do they want to double that?' Bessent quoted Trump. 'And they did. And look what happened,' Bessent said. Carlson interjected, 'We blew it up.' Laughter erupted, and Bessent quipped, 'Somebody did. Probably Putin. Some Norwegian fisherman bumped into it, is what I read.'

DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2 | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Joe: Marty, I have now heard it all. When I asked why the stock market crashed, I was not told it was tariffs. I was told that “Armstrong told his clients there would be a Panic at the end of March to the first week of April. All the huge wealth funds are Armstrong’s clients.” I guess they flipped a coin. Heads, Trump did it; tails, Armstrong did it. [...]

DJIA Panic Cycle kicks in during the week of April 28 - May 2

followed by Directional Change in the week of May 12 - 16.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: Look, the computer from the start of this year pointed to the last week of March and the first week of April. That was well before the tariff announcement. Trump’s tariffs are opening doors, not closing them. Maybe the smart ones figured that out and turned to me. These people can blame me as always. I think the difference this time is that we have opened Socrates so the entire world can see it. [...] Everyone knows this is not my personal opinion. [...] It’s Just Time.

Reference:
Martin Armstrong (April 4, 2025) - The Dow Crash – Was it Just Time?

 

 Understanding Martin Armstrong's Weekly Timing Arrays.

 

 80 Day Low in mid March, and 20 Week Low in mid May.

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update, David Hickson, March 10, 2025.

Please, It’s Too Much Winning. We Can't Take It Anymore, Mr. President!

 » We're gonna win so much that you may even get tired of winning! You’ll say:

"Please, please, it’s too much winning. We can't take it anymore, Mr. President. It’s too much!" 

And I’ll reply: "No, it isn’t! We have to keep winning, we have to win more! «

 

 

POTUS 45 | 47 

 

» The US is playing a zero-sum game. China is committed to opening ever wider to the world. « 

  

» May he continue to work hard for the ultimate mission entrusted to him by the Party. « 

 

 » Thursday and Friday were 2 consecutive days in the S&P of more than -4.5% declines,

and the NASDAQ fell more than -5%. This only happened during huge crashes. What's next? «

 

» There’s a fantastic research paper called “Buffett’s Alpha”, which analyzes the “factors” that Buffett tilts towards. Buffett is exposed to the Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk factors, with 1.7x leverage. I highly recommend you read this. «

 

  SubuTrade: Markets Report. Bear Markets & Trade Wars, April 05, 2025.

 

» Hurst Cycles: Short term cycles - 2-3 days higher for wave 4 and 20d high then another 2-3 days lower for wave 5

and 20d low will fit perfect. I think we have 20w high late March and now heading lower into 20w low. «
Krasi: Weekly Preview, April 5, 2025.

 

Philip Hopf (April 3, 2025) - Is Trump crashing the world economy now? (video)

 

See also:
TPR (April 4, 2025) - 10-Day Cycle Expected to Bottom on Tuesday, April 8, Around 8:30 a.m.

10-Day Cycle Expected to Bottom on Tuesday, April 8, Around 8:30 a.m.

Bank of America technician Paul Ciana notes that while April has historically been a strong month, "over the last ten years, the SPX trended down in April and bounced back in May," but week 2 of April has been up 72% of the time.

 

 BoA Paul Ciana: Week 2 of April up 72% of the time.

 

S&P 500 (30-Minute Bars).

Hurst's nominal 10-Day Cycle points to a low on Tuesday, April 8 around 8:30 a.m.

Week 3 of the 3-Week Cycle (click HERE).

SPY (Monthly Bars).

42-Month Kitchin Cycle, 18-Month Cycle, Premium-Discount Levels, and Buy Zone. 

Please note, David Hickson expects the current 18-Month Cycle to bottom around May-June;

three monthly pushes from the breakout to the downside (click HERE).

 

J.M. Hurst's Nominal Cycles.

 

VIX (Daily Bars). 

 

S&P 500 vs CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio (Daily Bars EOD).

 CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear.

 

S&P 500 vs CNN Fear & Greed Index:

April 4, 2025 @ 4.27 = lowest since May 11, 2022 @ 4.03. 

 

 Bloomberg: Nasdaq 100 dropped 20% and is now in a Bear Market.

 

BoA Michael Hartnett: S&P 500 buying levels now at 4,800-5,000. 

 

Steve Miller (April 4, 2025) - Stock Market Cycles Analysis (SPX, NDX, VIX, TNX).

S&P 500 vs Blood Indicator (= US 03-Month Treasury Bill / High Yield Spread)

 

And finally, the Ultra Bear Perspective:

 

  » Stop trying to buy the dips. The S&P 500 still has 1500-2000+
points of downside left over the next 2-3 years. «
Trigger Trades, April 4, 2025.

 

See also:

 Jason A. Jankovsky (September 25, 2023) - The Importance of Buy/Sell 50% Retracements.

We Support Trump’s Tariffs. Here Is Why | Dimitri Simes Jr.

We support Trump’s tariffs. They are beneficial for humanity. They will accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire.

 

Economic Self-Sabotage: Tariffs raise costs for US consumers and businesses, resulting in higher prices for everything from cars to electronics. This impacts the average American's wallet, shrinking purchasing power and slowing growth. A weaker economy means less leverage on the world stage.

» Trump’s tariffs are beneficial for humanity. They will 

accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire. «

Alienating Allies: Imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, or 20% on the EU, doesn’t exactly convey a “team player” mentality. Allies are already retaliating—China’s counter-tariffs and Europe’s threats are just the beginning. When your friends abandon you, your influence diminishes rapidly.

 » This is the formula Trump's team used to calculate tariffs. «

Deindustrialized Reality: The US is no longer the manufacturing giant it once was. Decades of offshoring have gutted its industrial base. Tariffs can’t protect industries that barely exist anymore. Steel mills and factories won’t magically return. Instead, higher costs will simply burden the service-heavy economy that remains.
 

» Damn smart penguins. «

Handing Rivals a Win: China is eager to capitalize. Tariffs push global trade away from the US, and Beijing is ready to fill the void, strengthening ties with Asia, Africa, South America, and even Europe. The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals like China and Russia gain ground.
 

 » The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals gain ground. «

Dollar’s Status at Risk: The US dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency relies on trust and trade. Tariffs breed chaos, retaliation, and currency wars, potentially leading to a push by BRICS nations to abandon the dollar. If this happens, America’s financial power could crumble—especially considering the historically high price of gold.
 

 » History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these. «

Overreach and Collapse: Empires fall when they overextend. Tariffs are a gamble; Trump is betting on short-term gains, but the long-term consequences could be a fractured trade system and a US too weakened to lead. History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these.
 

Trump’s tariffs might seem like a bold move to “Make America Great Again,” but they could end up being a wrecking ball to its global influence. The empire is already on shaky ground, and tariffs could be the final push that sends it crashing down.

Dimitri Simes Jr., April 3, 2025.  

 

  

  

» The problem is that Trump will be blamed for the recession/depression
the world is headed into, which will not bottom until August 25th, 2028. «

Martin Armstrong (April 2, 2025) - Trump, Tariffs, and Liberation Day.

 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent breaks down Trump's Tariff
Plan and its impact on the middle class, April 4, 2025.

 

 » They’ve all been living in our house. Driving our car. They open our fridge, eat our food. 

They’ve taken advantage of us. You have to pay. « Unless you are Israel.
US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, April 6, 2025.

Medvedev Watching the River Flow

» As it is, Russia barely does any trade with the US and EU, nearly all of it is under sanctions. Yet, our economy is growing 3% now. 

We’ll take the advice of Lao Tzu and sit by the river, waiting for the body of the enemy to float by.
The decaying corpse of the EU economy. «

 

Dmitry Medvedev, April 3, 2025.

A significant number of European politicians have succumbed to acute Russomania (also known as Russophobia)—a psychiatric disorder stemming from a bipolar affective exaggeration of Russia’s influence on the lives of Europe and Europeans. The condition typically alternates between two distinct phases: manic and depressive.

The manic stage is characterized by motor agitation, aggressiveness, and a tendency to provoke and attack stronger opponents without assessing one’s actual capabilities against the target of the attack. Sometimes, it ends in uncontrolled urination and defecation. Examples of patients in the manic stage include Macron, Starmer, Stubb, and several other European politicians.

 

From Third Reich to European Union.

The depressive phase is characterized by melancholy, emotional and physical fatigue, eating disorders, hypochondria, and self-harm. A patient in the depressive stage of Russomania may harm themselves, including self-sterilization (self-castration). At present, this stage is more commonly observed in women (Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas) or in hermaphrodites suffering from drug addiction (patients Zelensky, Saakashvili).

Treatment is symptomatic. Traditional medications are generally ineffective. The best therapeutic effect has been observed with the combined use of strong sedative drugs such as "Kalibr," "Onyx," "Iskander," and the powerful multi-component tranquilizer "Oreshnik." In particularly severe cases, nuclear neuroleptics such as "Yars" and "Sarmat" must be used.

 

Dmitry Medvedev, March 31, 2025.

 

See also:

 Martin Armstrong (March 21, 2025) - Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable.

Martin Armstrong (March 1, 2025) - Europe Will Go to War around May 15, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct.

Alex Krainer (March 18, 2025) - The Tragedy of Europe's Idiocracy.

Red Alert: Is the US Economy Headed for a Devastating Recession?

1. Stock Markets are facing significant uncertainty. US stocks ended last week with a 2% decline. Goldman Sachs has assigned a 35% chance of a US recession within the next 12 months. The firm has also officially reduced its S&P 500 forecasts, citing the impact of higher tariffs and increasing recession risks.

2. The Trade Deficit reached unprecedented levels in February, ballooning to $147.9 billion. January's revised deficit also soared to $153.3 billion. This surge is primarily due to a significant increase in imports of industrial supplies, such as oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), gold, and steel, as producers prepare for an extended trade war.

3. The financial storm is intensifying. Since January 31st, the S&P 500 and the US Dollar Index have dropped by 6.5% and 3.5%, respectively. This is a rare occurrence, as the last time both stocks and the Dollar fell in tandem by such a significant margin was in 2008.

4. The US Stock Market is experiencing historically unprecedented concentration levels, surpassing even the intense frenzy of the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. The top 10 stocks now make up 36% of the S&P 500, approaching an all-time high.

5. Gold is gaining attention as a safe haven. According to Bank of America, 58% of fund managers believe gold performs best during a trade war. Over the past 12 months, $7 trillion has been added to gold's market capitalization, signaling significant economic uncertainty.

6. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued a concerning forecast regarding the US debt. Federal deficits are expected to rise from 6.2% of GDP in 2025 to 7.3% by 2055. Public debt is projected to surge dramatically, growing from 100% of GDP in 2025 to a staggering 156% by 2055.

7. The Yield Curve typically shows higher yields on long-term US bonds compared to short-term bonds, reflecting the greater risk associated with lending money over a longer period. However, the US is currently experiencing an inversion of the curve, a historical pattern that has reliably preceded past recessions.

8. By February 2025, the U3 Unemployment Rate is projected to be 4.1%, while the U6 unemployment rate is expected to be 8.0%. Peter Schiff argues that the U3 rate appears low because it doesn't account for millions of unemployed individuals who aren't included in the official statistics. According to him, the US systematically hides the true extent of unemployment.

9. If Trump were to escalate with Tariffs, the impact on complex supply chains could be significant. Cars, for example, could see an additional $12,200 in costs due to tariffs, particularly those with parts from Canada or Mexico, which would face the steepest increases. Additionally, domestically produced goods that rely on imported materials would incur hidden tariff costs, further adding to the economic burden.

Reference:
New Rules Geopolitics (April 1, 2025) - Red Alert: US Economy Headed for Devastating Recession?

 

» China is crushing the US in the technological innovation race. China’s economic model is superior to America’s. Chinese companies reinvest their profits into expanding production, employment, research, and development, while US companies reinvest their profits into stock buybacks. « — Prof. Michael Hudson, November 21, 2024.

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 1, 2025) - Down Q1 Can Lead to More Trouble.

Jim Bianco (February 13, 2025) - The ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s Attention.

Simon Hunt (January 11, 2025) - Markets Amidst Trump 2.0: Geopolitics and Geoeconomics in 2025.

Martin Armstrong (December 21, 2024) - Outlook for 2025: Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction.  

Lu QiYuan (December 8, 2024) - Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0. 

 TPR (December 10, 2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.