Wednesday, August 26, 2026

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: "Sanctions Could Disrupt Global Finance!"

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined "Operation Economic Outcast," a phased sanctions campaign targeting Iran’s cryptocurrency, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping sectors, while warning third countries to cut ties with Tehran or risk losing access to the US dollar. 
  
 Currency Collapse Indicator Model: US 2026 worse than Venezuela 2017. Ready for shock therapy?
» Scott Bessent looks to be intentionally crashing the $. I studied currency collapses and found that there were  7 indicators that preceded every major currency collapse in modern history. I then measured the US dollar against those 7. And as of right now, based on what Scott Bessent did last week, we have hit all 7 indicators. No country in modern history has met all 7 and avoided a currency collapse. None. And this doesn't look to be happening to us, it looks to be being done to us, by the people who swore an oath to prevent it. And they are getting rich while they do it. «

He warned that "sanctions could disrupt global finance," arguing that a gradual approach gives nations time to end their dealings with Tehran and avoid broader financial disruption. His remarks drew mixed reactions, ranging from claims that they amounted to an "empire-level economic terrorist" admission to interpretations that they were simply a rhetorical push for compliance, fueling memes and debate over the global impact of sanctions.

» Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? «

Bessent's recent doubling of bond buybacks and sanctions have been cited as potential warning signs, alongside indicators such as high debt-to-GDP, declining reserves, and political interference, with charts comparing the US to historical cases. 
 
 "Let them eat white bread!"
The Reign of the Orange Ape—certainly one for the history books.
 
The US Dollar System.
 
Reactions split between alarm over a potential dollar squeeze—fueled by China's reduced Treasury holdings and increased gold purchases—and pushback emphasizing the dollar’s unique reserve-currency status and the subjectivity of such models. Markets have reflected the debate, with a weaker dollar coinciding with gains in gold and Bitcoin as concerns persist over the official $40 trillion national debt.
 
You don't grow your way out of debt when 
debt is outrunning growth every single year. 
 
Jerome Powell in February 2024, in a 60 Minutes interview
—and still not arrested... 'cause it's the land of the free.
 
Warsh will inflate the US debt away. It was clear
in February 2026... and it should be clearer now.  
 
Well, that official US national-debt number—$40 trillion—is a straight-up lie. The US government uses accounting rules that would get every CEO and entrepreneur arrested. Unfunded Social Security and Medicare promises over the next 75 years: more than $400 trillion. None of it is on the government's headline balance sheet. A public company would be required to recognize future obligations. Washington simply doesn't. And when promises can't be paid honestly, there's always another way to settle the bill: Create the money. Inflate the currency. Make everyone else pay. The $40 trillion isn't the whole bill. It's the number this giga-corrupt criminal regime in Washington chooses to put on the books—and Americans and the rest of the world are expected to pretend the other $400+ trillion of this Ponzi scheme doesn't exist. Inflation is a tax. Seigniorage is fraud. Americans, make these criminals economic outcasts. 
 
See also:
 

Third-to-Last Trading Day of August: 90.5% Bullish Record | Jeff Hirsch

August's third-to-last trading day is a calendar favorite for the bulls. Over the past 21 years, the S&P 500 has risen 19 times—a 90.5% win rate—making it one of only two days of the year with 19 gains in 21 years; the other is the first trading day of July.

 Bullish Third-to-Last Trading Day of August (2005-2025).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has an even stronger claim: its third-to-last trading day of August has been its best-performing day of the entire year, also gaining 19 of 21 times (90.5%).

This unusually strong late-August bias may reflect seasonal positioning: institutions prepare portfolios for the fall, retirement and investment contributions continue, and investors anticipate upcoming earnings, economic data, and Federal Reserve developments. With August ending, markets also begin positioning for the historically active final four months of the year.

The Saturn-Rahu/Ketu Conjunction Blueprint of Market Cycles | Allen Reminick

This 1646 engraving by Jesuit polymath Athanasius Kircher is an astronomical calculating tool from his book Ars Magna Lucis et Umbrae (The Great Art of Light and Shadow). Known as the Eclipse Dragon, the diagram maps and predicts solar and lunar eclipses. The beast's winding body represents the ecliptic plane, as eclipses occur only when the Moon intersects this path. The dragon's head on the left marks the ascending North Node, historically called "Caput Draconis." Its coiled tail on the right signifies the descending South Node, or "Cauda Draconis."
Fifteen years of statistical validation show that buying during Moon-Ketu conjunctions and selling at Moon-Rahu conjunctions yields a 70% win rate over two-week periods in the S&P 500. The critical caveat is that even when the statistics suggest shorting during Moon-Rahu alignments, the prudent approach avoids counter-trend positions in a bull market. The deeper principle is that the nodes serve as polarity points: Ketu represents contraction and Rahu expansion, each exerting a predictable gravitational influence on market psychology.

Saturn-Rahu Synodic Cycle: The Explosive Bull Catalyst
The strongest evidence for planetary influence emerges from the 11.4-year Saturn-North Node synodic cycle (11.4045 years = 4,165.443 days). When the angle between them measures approximately thirteen degrees—as on March 01 (Sat), 2025 [exact 2025 Saturn–North Node conjunction: on April 14 with the mean node, on April 21 (Mon), 2025 with the true node], preceding the March 30th low—historical back-testing reveals extraordinary consistency. Over 110 years, every occurrence of this specific angular relationship produced an explosive rally shortly thereafter. The 2025 rally from the April lows demonstrated the pattern with remarkable precision, following the template established in 1992, 2003, and 2014, each separated by the 11.4-year interval.
The predictive power extends beyond price action into geopolitical correlation. The same Saturn-Rahu alignment that preceded the 2025 market low also maps to the beginning of the Iraq War in 2003, the Gulf War in 1991, and Ruhollah Khomeini's rise to power in Iran in 1979. Four cycles later, on February 28, 2026, Ali Khameini was murdered on the exact day another cycle began. The dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991 aligned with this cycle, while its formation sixty-nine years earlier also fell on the same pattern. The 2025 Straits of Hormuz crisis mirrors the Dardanelles crisis of 1878—precisely 148 years, or thirteen synodic cycles, apart—with both involving naval deployments to keep strategic waterways open.
Saturn-Ketu Conjunction: The Bearish Counterpoint
The opposite nodal alignment—Saturn conjunct Ketu—produces the mirror image: severe bear markets every 34 years, or three Saturn-Rahu cycles. The October 11th, 2007 conjunction in Leo [exact Saturn–Ketu conjunction October 12 or 23, ephemeris-dependent] marked the exact high of the Great Financial Crisis. 
Three cycles earlier came the 1974 bear market, triggered three days after President Nixon's resignation. Three cycles before that, the 1940 crash unfolded as Hitler's European campaign intensified. Each occurrence produced a waterfall decline of approximately twenty percent, establishing durable lows that, crucially, were followed by recovery to new highs within five years—a pattern suggesting that the 4,800 level on the S&P in April 2025 will hold as a long-term floor.
Symmetry of Opposites: Market Inversion Mechanics
When Saturn-Rahu and Saturn-Ketu conjunctions occur at opposite zodiacal points, the market responds with striking symmetry. The 2007 high, generated by a Ketu conjunction, corresponds to the 2025 low produced by its Rahu counterpart, inverting the Great Financial Crisis into an upside-down mirror image. 
 
The recent S&P rally was driven by the Saturn‑Rahu synodic cycle: On March 1, 2026, a high formed with a thirteen‑degree angle between Saturn and the North Node, followed by a low on March 30. This exact thirteen‑degree angle recurs every 11.4 years, and back‑testing over 110 years shows that every occurrence produced an explosive rally soon after the corresponding high. Crucially, from every Saturn‑Rahu low, the market is invariably higher five years later, with no exceptions, even when intermediate bear markets appear, as in 1957 and 1969. The synodic period of 11.4 years shifts through different zodiac signs, requiring a full thirteen cycles—totaling 148 years—to return to the identical starting position. On a short‑term basis, Moon‑Ketu conjunctions are bullish and Moon‑Rahu conjunctions are bearish, yet in a bull market one must never counter‑trend short on the Moon‑Rahu signal. 
The 17.5-year interval—1.5 times the 11.4-year cycle—aligns the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse, the worst phase of the decline, with the most explosive portion of the 2025 rally. On November 21 (Fri), a secondary low followed by a six-week bounce, maps precisely to current market positioning, providing a roadmap for the coming months: a continuation of the rally into September, punctuated by a July dip.

The 34-Year Cycle: Structural Superiority Through Zodiacal Rotation
While the 11.4-year Saturn-Rahu cycle demonstrates impressive predictive capability, the 34.2-year cycle exhibits greater longevity and structural integrity. The reason lies in zodiacal position: the 1991 conjunction occurred at the beginning of Capricorn [Jan 21 (Mon), 1991, while the 2025 alignment in the sidereal system occurred at approximately two degrees of Pisces]—a sixty-degree rotation. 
 
34.25-Year Saturn–Node Cycle Overlay: Weekly Dow versus the same chart shifted back 34.25 years (three Saturn–North Node synodic cycles of 11.4045 years each). The April 2025 low maps directly onto the December 1991 low, the 2007–09 financial-crisis decline aligns with the 1974 crash, and the 15 October 2014 low coincides with the 30 March 2025 low at 97 percent correlation on five-minute bars. The longer-term fidelity arises because the 1991 conjunction occurred at the start of Capricorn while the 2025 conjunction fell near 2° Pisces sidereal—a 60° rotation that preserves the cycle’s structural integrity far beyond isolated 11.4-year repetitions. Project the pattern forward from 34 years ago for the continuing roadmap.
This sixty-degree planetary shift, equivalent to one-sixth of the zodiac, preserves the cycle's periodicity across extended timeframes with 95% correlation. The April 2025 low corresponds precisely to the December 1991 low, with identical swing structures, while the 2007–2009 financial crisis maps to the 1974 crash, demonstrating that the thirty-four-year interval captures both the 11.4-year cycles and their sixty-degree rotations.

Jupiter-Saturn Supra-Cycle: The Grand Synthesizer
Above these cycles operates the Jupiter-Saturn synodic cycle, completing every 19.85 years and remaining in the same elemental sign for 250-year epochs. The 60-year cycle—three Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions, approximating 59.6 years—provides the most reliable long-term market template, with 1965 aligning perfectly with 2025 and 1966 with 2026. 
Multiplying the three cycles yields a 178-year interval connecting the 1842 Opium Wars to the current opioid crisis in the US, with trade direction reversing from west-to-east to east-to-west. The same 178-year span links Mexico's 1828 independence and subsequent invitation to American settlers with today's immigration crisis, demonstrating that these cycles govern not merely market prices but the collective human drama itself.
Human Element: Consciousness Embedded in Cosmic Structure
The patterns repeat because human nature remains constant. The same emotions, fear and greed, and cognitive biases that drove traders in 1878 continue to drive traders today. Planetary configurations serve as signposts—mathematical markers of where collective consciousness directs its attention and emotional energy. 
 
Partial Solar Eclipse (August 12, 2026) and Partial Lunar Eclipse (August 28, 2026) over New York. Moon-Rahu and Moon-Ketu conjunctions occur once per Draconic Month (~27.2122 days) at each node. The most critical conjunctions occur when the Moon aligns with a node near a syzygy (New or Full Moon), producing solar or lunar eclipses—for example, March 3, 2026, Ketu: Total Lunar Eclipse; August 12, 2026, Rahu: Total Solar Eclipse; August 28, 2026, Rahu: Partial Lunar Eclipse. 
Recognizing this structure dissolves the apparent chaos of markets into ordered pattern. The trader ceases to be a victim of random events and becomes an informed participant in a cosmic drama, understanding that the script was written not in Washington or on Wall Street, but in the mathematics of the solar system itself. As the ancient aphorism states: "As above, so below." Markets, far from being disconnected from natural law, operate as its most transparent expression.

 

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

What if the Biggest Bubble of our Lifetime Isn't Crypto? | Thierry Borgeat

Not crypto. Not AI stocks. Not real estate. What if it's the one asset every pension fund, every retiree, every "safe" portfolio is loaded with? Bonds. 
 
The biggest bubble no one's talking about: 39 years of falling rates are over.
Upper panel: US long-term bond yields from the early 1800s to the early 2020s.
Lower panel: long-term rate-of-change (ROC) indicator on the yields . 

200 years of rate cycles say the same thing: Every peak lasts 56–67 years. The 1981 top was 14% yields. The 2020 bottom was 0%. 39 years of falling rates just ended. What if we're now at the start of the next 50-year cycle—upward? Most investors have never managed money in a rising rate world. Their entire career happened inside the bull. The unwind has barely started. And no one is talking about it. (August 24, 2026)

Saturday, August 22, 2026

S&P 500 vs. Ap Index: +3-Day Lag and Limits of Multi-Week Forecasting

The chart below illustrates the hypothesis that geomagnetic activity, measured by the planetary Ap index, precedes trend reversals, as geomagnetic disturbances subtly impair collective mood and increase risk aversion. This idea draws on research examining correlations between space weather and financial markets, including evidence of both direct and inverse relationships between Ap—and related Kp and F10.7—readings and subsequent market performance.

S&P 500 vs. Ap Index (Apr-Oct 2026). Projected Ap peaks:
Sep 4 (Fri),  Sep 17–20 (Thu-Sun), Oct 1 (Thu). 
 
Chart Construction and Data Sources
The chart overlays the daily S&P 500 with the Ap index shifted forward by three calendar days—the short lag that currently offers the best balance between the classic weekly effect reported in the literature and practical S&P 500 trading-day alignment. The series is then extended using the NOAA 45-day Ap forecast. Historical daily Ap data are sourced from GFZ Potsdam, while the dashed forward segment represents the latest NOAA SWPC 45-day Ap forecast, issued on August 22, 2026. 
 
Limits of the NOAA 45-Day Forecast for Forward Correlation
However impressive the historical correlation may appear, its reliability as a guide to future relationships is inherently limited. NOAA's 45-day Ap forecast is a relatively low-resolution space-weather projection, it is adjusted on a daily basis, and its predictive skill declines rapidly beyond the first week. Moreover, the forecast activity levels shown in the chart are modest (Ap 8–15) and remain well below classic geomagnetic storm thresholds: Ap 8–15 corresponds roughly to Kp 2–3 (quiet to unsettled conditions), while Ap 48 corresponds to Kp 5, the threshold for a NOAA G1 geomagnetic storm. 
  
Latitude-Dependent Solar Rotation and Active-Region Return Times
Sunspots and active regions do not return to the Earth-facing side of the Sun on a fixed schedule. Because the Sun rotates differentially—faster at the equator (~25 days sidereal, or ~27 days synodic as seen from Earth) and progressively slower at higher latitudes (reaching ~30–35 days near the poles)—the time required for a given region to reappear depends on its heliographic latitude. The standard Carrington frame uses a compromise rotation period of 27.2753 days (synodic), which roughly corresponds to the typical 10–20° latitudes of sunspots. Regions at higher latitudes therefore take longer to rotate back into view, while those near the equator return sooner. 
 
Solar Activity Snapshot: Comparing Sunspot distribution on the Earth-facing and far sides of the Sun (August 22, 2026).
 
From above the Sun's north pole, its rotation is counterclockwise, carrying sunspots from left to right.
 
Reading the Raben Earthside and Farside Maps 
The Raben maps above illustrate this directly: The Earthside view shows currently visible active regions, identified by NOAA numbers and activity-color coding, while the Farside view highlights returning regions with meridian lines estimating the number of days until they may reappear, assuming a uniform rotation rate. In reality, those return times can stretch or compress with latitude. A high-latitude complex visible on the farside today, for example, may take several additional days to rotate back into Earth view compared with a low-latitude region. 
 
How Returning Regions Drive F10.7 and Ap
These returning regions influence both the 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7) and geomagnetic activity (Ap and Kp). F10.7 serves as a direct proxy for solar EUV/UV output associated with active regions and plages; when a large active complex rotates onto the Earth-facing disk, F10.7 typically rises. Ap, by contrast, responds more indirectly: high-speed solar-wind streams from coronal holes, as well as coronal mass ejections launched from Earth-directed active regions, can disturb the magnetosphere and elevate the planetary Ap index. 
 
Construction of the 27-Day and 45-Day NOAA Forecasts
Consequently, the 27-day forecast for F10.7 and the geomagnetic Ap and Kp indices and the 45-day Ap/F10.7 forecast issued and updated daily by NOAA SWPC, are both built around the expected recurrence of these features through solar rotation. The 27-day forecast is essentially a recurrence forecast, assuming that active regions and coronal holes will reappear roughly one Carrington rotation later. The 45-day forecast extends this approach farther into the future, blending recurrence-based estimates with a longer-term background trend.
The time a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) takes to reach Earth depends mainly on its density and solar-wind conditions:. fast CMEs (>1,000 km/s) arrive in 1–2 days, average CMEs (500–1,000 km/s) in 2–3 days, and slow CMEs (<500 km/s) in 3–5 days.
The Moon's orbit through Earth's magnetosphere, and the corresponding reduction in solar wind ion flux as it enters the magnetotail cavity near full Moon (0°), provides one example of how the solar wind–magnetosphere configuration can influence geomagnetic conditions. More broadly, the semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity is linked to the interaction between the solar wind and Earth's tilted magnetic field, which typically causes increased geomagnetic disturbances around the equinoxes and lower activity around the solstices.
Why Multi-Week Ap Forecasts Remain a Coarse Guide
That is precisely why attempts to forward correlate 27-day and 45-day Ap forecasts with the S&P 500 are inherently limited. The Sun's differential rotation, the uncertain evolution of active regions—including their growth, decay, or disappearance while on the farside—the variable geoeffectiveness of individual regions, and the chaotic nature of solar-wind–magnetosphere coupling all erode day-to-day predictability.  
 
 
Hence, multi-week Ap and F10.7 forecasts should be interpreted primarily as defining a broad solar-activity envelope rather than as precise day-by-day projections capable of supporting a tight forward correlation with daily S&P 500 returns. By contrast, short-horizon tools—such as the NOAA 3-day forecast, the LSTM-based 72 hour Ap predictor, and real-time L1 solar-wind dataretain greater predictive value for near-term market conditions.
  
See also:

Small Ranges Beget Large Ranges | Larry Williams

Let's have a look at the Key High-Low Reversal Pattern: A market is said to top when it makes a higher high and a higher low but closes down for the day or week. At a bottom, it makes a lower low and a lower high but closes up.
 
But does this "Textbook" Reversal Pattern actually work?
 
Most technical analysis books describe this as a "classic reversal pattern." But when you examine actual charts, it doesn't consistently work that way. 
 
This can be in fact a dangerous pattern to rely on.
 
Major tops and bottoms rarely produce a key reversal. Instead, markets often top by closing near the high and bottom by closing near the low. Key reversal signals are relatively rare, and many fail. So be careful with them. What happens after the reversal may be more useful, particularly when the reversal fails. So, what does work?

Small ranges often precede large, explosive moves.
 
Markets tend to cycle from small ranges to large ranges. When we see a series of small ranges, we know that a significant move may be developing. The important point is that small ranges tell us something is coming, but not necessarily which direction

What are we waiting for? Small ranges.

The Average True Range (ATR) provides a useful way to identify small and large ranges. When the ATR is low, the market is often preparing for an explosive move. We don't know whether that move will be up or down, but we know volatility may be about to expand. Conversely, very high ranges often occur near market lows. Markets frequently decline on larger ranges and rally on smaller ranges.

Markets tend to decline on larger ranges and rally on smaller ranges.

Very low ranges can signal that an explosive move is approaching, while very high ranges can occur near selling extremes.
Small ranges therefore provide a useful setup, not a complete trading signal. You still need to consider trend, overbought/oversold conditions, and other indicators to determine direction. This requires patience. Most short-term traders struggle to wait for the right conditions. Jesse Livermore put it well: "There are times to speculate and times not to speculate." Short-term traders often want to trade constantly, but patience is essential. As Livermore said, "I permitted impatience to outmaneuver good judgment." Think of trading like a card game: you have to wait for the right cards.

Price Performance vs. Zodiac Signs, Lunar Phase & Mercury Retrograde

S&P 500 (SPX) performance by color-shaded Zodiac Signs (2016–2026),
New Moon, Full Moon and rosa-shaded Mercury Retrograde periods. 
S&P 500 Strategy: Go long during bullish zodiac phases and short during bearish phases; hold through phase end with a 2% stop-loss (1% tighter stops improved results). Starting with $1,000, a 10 year walk-forward case study produced $5,410. The win rate exceeded RSI, Stochastic, and MFI, slightly outperforming Stochastic. Low-win-rate signs (e.g., Gemini at 39%) can be omitted. 

Augmented version: Enter long only when Stochastic (14,1,3) ≤20 during a bullish phase; enter short only when ≥80 during a bearish phase; hold through the full phase. Python backtest: $18,571.79 over two years with a 66.67% win rate. 

Using 10 years of S&P 500, Mercury retrograde periods frequently preceded major pivots, with post-retrograde directional flips.
Upcoming Events (dates and times for New York City):
Jul 29 (Wed), 2026 07:34 EDT — Full Moon (Buck Moon)
Aug 12 (Wed), 2026 12:11 EDT — New Moon
Aug 23 (Sun), 2026 00:19 EDT — enters Virgo (150 deg from 0 deg Aries = vernal equinox)
Aug 27 (Thu), 2026 19:18 EDT — Full Moon (Sturgeon Moon / Lunar Eclipse)
Sep 10 (Thu), 2026 21:12 EDT — New Moon
Sep 22 (Tue), 2026 16:05 EDT — enters Libra (180 deg) (Fall Equinox)
Sep 26 (Sat), 2026 05:49 EDT — Full Moon (Corn / Harvest Moon)
Oct 10 (Sat), 2026 08:51 EDT — New Moon
Oct 22 (Thu), 2026 23:00 EDT — enters Scorpio (210 deg)
Oct 24 (Sat), 2026 03:02 EDT — Mercury Retrograde Begins
Oct 25 (Sun), 2026 15:38 EDT — Full Moon (Hunter's Moon)
Nov 08 (Sun), 2026 23:02 EST — New Moon
Nov 13 (Fri), 2026 11:01 EST — Mercury Direct Resumes
Nov 21 (Sat), 2026 16:00 EST — enters Sagittarius (240 deg)
Nov 24 (Tue), 2026 00:53 EST — Full Moon (Beaver Moon)
Dec 08 (Tue), 2026 15:49 EST — New Moon
Dec 21 (Mon), 2026 10:50 EST — Capricorn (270 deg) (Winter Solstice)
Dec 23 (Wed), 2026 09:28 EST — Full Moon (Cold Moon)
 
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX; 2016–2026) 
 
Bitcoin (BTCUSD; 2016–2026) 

Gold (XAUUSD; 
2016–2026) 

Silver (XAGUSD; 
2016–2026)
 
WTI Light Crude Oil (XTIUSD; 
2016–2026)
 
Dollar Index (DXY; 
2016–2026)
 
Reference:
 
Forecast Based on "Moon Synodic + Sun in Virgo" Model | Sergey Tarassov
 
 
 [HERE]