August's third-to-last trading day is a calendar favorite for the bulls. Over the past 21 years, the S&P 500 has risen 19 times—a 90.5% win rate—making it one of only two days of the year with 19 gains in 21 years; the other is the first trading day of July.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has an even stronger claim: its third-to-last trading day of August has been its best-performing day of the entire year, also gaining 19 of 21 times (90.5%).
This unusually strong late-August bias may reflect seasonal positioning: institutions prepare portfolios for the fall, retirement and investment contributions continue, and investors anticipate upcoming earnings, economic data, and Federal Reserve developments. With August ending, markets also begin positioning for the historically active final four months of the year.
Bullish Third-to-Last Trading Day of August (2005-2025).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has an even stronger claim: its third-to-last trading day of August has been its best-performing day of the entire year, also gaining 19 of 21 times (90.5%).
This unusually strong late-August bias may reflect seasonal positioning: institutions prepare portfolios for the fall, retirement and investment contributions continue, and investors anticipate upcoming earnings, economic data, and Federal Reserve developments. With August ending, markets also begin positioning for the historically active final four months of the year.