Showing posts with label Bond Market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bond Market. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

The US Just Made Gold Its Number One Export | Gerry Nolan

America just made gold its number one export, and it’s pouring straight into China via Switzerland. For the last five months running, US gold shipments have topped everything else the country sells abroad. In March alone, they were 1.7 times larger than oil, twice pharma, and two and a half times aircraft engines.
 
» How exactly does this serve the United States? «
  
Most of it doesn’t even stay in America: it sails through Switzerland’s refineries and lands in Beijing’s vaults. This is highly unusual. The US doesn’t ship its oldest store of value to its biggest rival at record pace under normal conditions. Geopolitical tension, inflation hedging, and quiet signals that gold is becoming a settlement mechanism in US–China trade have flipped the script.

America is quietly surrendering the one asset that still commands respect when the dollar starts to wobble. It’s the visible symptom of a deeper reckoning: Beijing is no longer content to hold endless piles of US Treasuries or accept dollars for its oil and goods. With every sanctioned barrel and every BRICS handshake, China is forcing real settlement in the one currency that can’t be printed into oblivion. The empire ships bullion east while its navy steams around the Gulf, pretending it still runs the world. The numbers don’t lie, and neither does the direction of travel.

» Real money to the competition while the dollar-printing machine keeps spinning. «
 
So, tell how exactly does this serve the United States? It doesn’t. But it sure as hell serves China. The empire is literally melting down its patrimony and handing the real money to the competition while the increasingly worthless dollar-printing machine keeps spinning.

 

See also:

Friday, September 19, 2025

Fed Cuts, Banks Cash In, Main Street Bleeds, Stocks Rise | Oscar Carboni

Jerome Powell cut rates by a quarter point. Big deal? Not for Americans paying 8% mortgages. Banks borrow from the Fed at 4% and lend at nearly double. Every cut fuels their spread, no relief for homebuyers. Bond market moves by banks erase any Fed benefit.

» Every time the Fed lowers rates, banks push down the bond market, which drives mortgage
rates right back up. We saw this earlier this year: bonds get hammered, rates climb. «
 
Main Street loses. Wall Street profits. This loop has repeated for months. Powell’s cuts can’t counteract bond manipulation. And the bigger risk looms: in past crises—2008, COVID—near-zero rates saved the system. Burn through cuts now, and the Fed has less firepower when the next shock hits.

» Bonds don’t look good, but the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Bitcoin, even real estate—all look strong.
Lower rates push asset prices higher. So we’ll trade dips, especially in Bitcoin, and ride the trend. «

Traders, however, see opportunity. Even tiny rate cuts flood liquidity into markets. Equities, crypto, real estate—they all get a boost. S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Bitcoin—buy dips, ride the rally. Bonds remain toxic, but risk assets thrive. Cuts inflate prices, but housing stays out of reach.

The solution is simple: cap lending spreads. If banks borrow at 4%, mortgages shouldn’t exceed 6%. Without it, the Fed's moves only fuel asset inflation while Main Street bleeds. Until reform arrives, liquidity drives traders’ gains while banks run the bond market—and Americans pay the price. The Fed may cut, but the real game is elsewhere.

Reference:
 
» When the Fed cuts with the S&P <2% from ATH (13x since ’90), the next 30 days is a coin flip (6 up/7 down).  3-months out has almost a perfect record: 12/13 up with the last and only loss in 1990. Recent four 3-month gains: +6.2%, +5.9%, +7.7%, +1.6%. «
Mark Minervini, September 19, 2025.
 
See also: