Showing posts with label Bond Market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bond Market. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: "Sanctions Could Disrupt Global Finance!"

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined "Operation Economic Outcast," a phased sanctions campaign targeting Iran’s cryptocurrency, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping sectors, while warning third countries to cut ties with Tehran or risk losing access to the US dollar. 
  
 Currency Collapse Indicator Model: US 2026 worse than Venezuela 2017. Ready for shock therapy?
» Scott Bessent looks to be intentionally crashing the $. I studied currency collapses and found that there were  7 indicators that preceded every major currency collapse in modern history. I then measured the US dollar against those 7. And as of right now, based on what Scott Bessent did last week, we have hit all 7 indicators. No country in modern history has met all 7 and avoided a currency collapse. None. And this doesn't look to be happening to us, it looks to be being done to us, by the people who swore an oath to prevent it. And they are getting rich while they do it. «

He warned that "sanctions could disrupt global finance," arguing that a gradual approach gives nations time to end their dealings with Tehran and avoid broader financial disruption. His remarks drew mixed reactions, ranging from claims that they amounted to an "empire-level economic terrorist" admission to interpretations that they were simply a rhetorical push for compliance, fueling memes and debate over the global impact of sanctions.

» Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? «

Bessent's recent doubling of bond buybacks and sanctions have been cited as potential warning signs, alongside indicators such as high debt-to-GDP, declining reserves, and political interference, with charts comparing the US to historical cases. 
 
 "Let them eat white bread!"
The Reign of the Orange Ape—certainly one for the history books.
 
The US Dollar System.
 
Reactions split between alarm over a potential dollar squeeze—fueled by China's reduced Treasury holdings and increased gold purchases—and pushback emphasizing the dollar’s unique reserve-currency status and the subjectivity of such models. Markets have reflected the debate, with a weaker dollar coinciding with gains in gold and Bitcoin as concerns persist over the $40 trillion national debt.
 
You don't grow your way out of debt when 
debt is outrunning growth every single year. 

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Wednesday, May 6, 2026

The US Just Made Gold Its Number One Export | Gerry Nolan

America just made gold its number one export, and it’s pouring straight into China via Switzerland. For the last five months running, US gold shipments have topped everything else the country sells abroad. In March alone, they were 1.7 times larger than oil, twice pharma, and two and a half times aircraft engines.
 
» How exactly does this serve the United States? «
  
Most of it doesn’t even stay in America: it sails through Switzerland’s refineries and lands in Beijing’s vaults. This is highly unusual. The US doesn’t ship its oldest store of value to its biggest rival at record pace under normal conditions. Geopolitical tension, inflation hedging, and quiet signals that gold is becoming a settlement mechanism in US–China trade have flipped the script.

America is quietly surrendering the one asset that still commands respect when the dollar starts to wobble. It’s the visible symptom of a deeper reckoning: Beijing is no longer content to hold endless piles of US Treasuries or accept dollars for its oil and goods. With every sanctioned barrel and every BRICS handshake, China is forcing real settlement in the one currency that can’t be printed into oblivion. The empire ships bullion east while its navy steams around the Gulf, pretending it still runs the world. The numbers don’t lie, and neither does the direction of travel.

» Real money to the competition while the dollar-printing machine keeps spinning. «
 
So, tell how exactly does this serve the United States? It doesn’t. But it sure as hell serves China. The empire is literally melting down its patrimony and handing the real money to the competition while the increasingly worthless dollar-printing machine keeps spinning.

 

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Friday, September 19, 2025

Fed Cuts, Banks Cash In, Main Street Bleeds, Stocks Rise | Oscar Carboni

Jerome Powell cut rates by a quarter point. Big deal? Not for Americans paying 8% mortgages. Banks borrow from the Fed at 4% and lend at nearly double. Every cut fuels their spread, no relief for homebuyers. Bond market moves by banks erase any Fed benefit.

» Every time the Fed lowers rates, banks push down the bond market, which drives mortgage
rates right back up. We saw this earlier this year: bonds get hammered, rates climb. «
 
Main Street loses. Wall Street profits. This loop has repeated for months. Powell’s cuts can’t counteract bond manipulation. And the bigger risk looms: in past crises—2008, COVID—near-zero rates saved the system. Burn through cuts now, and the Fed has less firepower when the next shock hits.

» Bonds don’t look good, but the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Bitcoin, even real estate—all look strong.
Lower rates push asset prices higher. So we’ll trade dips, especially in Bitcoin, and ride the trend. «

Traders, however, see opportunity. Even tiny rate cuts flood liquidity into markets. Equities, crypto, real estate—they all get a boost. S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Bitcoin—buy dips, ride the rally. Bonds remain toxic, but risk assets thrive. Cuts inflate prices, but housing stays out of reach.

The solution is simple: cap lending spreads. If banks borrow at 4%, mortgages shouldn’t exceed 6%. Without it, the Fed's moves only fuel asset inflation while Main Street bleeds. Until reform arrives, liquidity drives traders’ gains while banks run the bond market—and Americans pay the price. The Fed may cut, but the real game is elsewhere.

Reference:
 
» When the Fed cuts with the S&P <2% from ATH (13x since ’90), the next 30 days is a coin flip (6 up/7 down).  3-months out has almost a perfect record: 12/13 up with the last and only loss in 1990. Recent four 3-month gains: +6.2%, +5.9%, +7.7%, +1.6%. «
Mark Minervini, September 19, 2025.
 
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