Friday, November 8, 2024

The Kosher Candidate | Wyatt Peterson

How strange, eh? Trump wins the election and all’s quiet on the Western front. No Antifa or BLM thugs tearing up major cities; no suspicious activity at the polls or meaningful cases of voter fraud; no histrionic media warning about the impending ‘rise of fascism.’ Nothing! It’s almost as if Trump was the deep state’s candidate all along, something I have contended since October 7, 2023.
 
 » Anyone who believes ‘The Donald’ will be calling the shots in his
upcoming administration has no idea how our political system works. «
 
My MAGA friends assure me the vote for Trump was simply ‘too big to rig’ and that his victory is cause for uninhibited celebration. Our broken election system that garnered so much attention just four years ago has miraculously been restored and conservative Americans can once again place their faith in the democratic process. Hallelujah!

  » There is nothing patriotic about allowing a bunch of rich Jews
to dictate the terms of our national discourse. «

The wealthy individuals who have cozied up to Trump over the past 12 months are single-issue voters, and that issue is Israel. [...] It’s probably safe to assume that the millions of dollars Trump receives from people like Helberg and Thiel motivates his rhetoric about deporting “anti-Israel protestors” and bombing Iran more so than any deeply held philosemitic convictions. Many of his supporters, however, fail to make this connection and, as a result, adopt similar attitudes and opinions to those their hero has been paid so handsomely to express. Indeed, the major benefit of a Trump presidency from the perspective of these people is his unprecedented popularity, which automatically ensures countless supporters for the Zionist cause. 
 
Had Kamala Harris been installed as America’s 47th president, I honestly believe a majority of Trump’s base would’ve quickly grown tired of watching material and financial aid go to Israel, thus creating a fissure in the Zionist edifice and potentially leading to an overdue reckoning with the Jewish Question. As it stands, Trump will likely live up to his billing as history’s most pro-Israel president and he’ll almost certainly be granted a free pass by his supporters who seem to view him in the same starry-eyed way as a child views his favorite athlete or movie star.


Another single-issue voter close to Trump these days is billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman. A longtime donor to Democratic candidates and organizations such as Michael Bloomberg, Chuck Schumer, the Democratic National Committee and Planned Parenthood, Ackman announced his support for Trump in July after complaining about Joe Biden’s “lack of support” for the Jewish state.


[...] Conservatives tend to believe the fight for the soul of our nation is being waged between ‘progressive leftists’ and ‘America First.’ In reality, ‘Wokeism’ is but a tool in the hands of powerful forces who wield it to destabilize Western Christian civilization. The second the ‘woke’ golem goes off the reservation and begins operating with a measure of autonomy, its creators shift their shape and pose as patriotic crusaders in the fight to reclaim our nation from the monster they have created. There is nothing patriotic about allowing a bunch of rich Jews to dictate the terms of our national discourse and to chase from public life anyone they deem a threat to their interests at that time.

 » Trump is surrounded by Zionist fanatics who believe 
they’re entitled to a return on their deposit. «

Which brings me back to Trump. Anyone who believes ‘The Donald’ will be calling the shots in his upcoming administration has no idea how our political system works. Howard Lutnick, the billionaire New York Jew heading the Trump transition team, has already stated he’s working closely with Jared Kushner on hiring personnel for the administration; and former ‘Never Trumper’ Ben Shapiro has indicated ultra-Zionists Mike Pompeo and David Friedman will be in charge of Trump’s “Israel policy.” Shapiro disclosed the information during an online debate with Jewish activists Sam Harris and Bari Weiss, telling them, “on his Israel policy, Mike Pompeo and David Friedman are the most likely people to be in the administration ... I know precisely the people talking to him — I’m not speculating about that.” Later in the segment, Shapiro rightly stated that “Trump is the most pro-Israel president in American history,” revealing where his, and so many of his co-religionists’, true interests lie.


Recently I was reading through some old political newsletters and magazines I’ve accumulated over the years. One item which caught my attention was an August 2012 edition of Michael Hoffman’s Revisionist History newsletter titled, ‘The Quadrennial Return of the Lesser of Two Evils Meme.’ In it, Hoffman wrote the following about former Republican presidential candidate Willard ‘Mitt’ Romney:

"Mr. Romney is an obvious opportunist who would say or do just about anything to get elected. The pro-life argument only holds water if the murder of unborn Iranian babies in their mother’s womb counts for nothing with the Religious Right. Romney is the preferred candidate of the bankers and super-rich, and of war-Zionism. Within a year or less of being elected President it is very likely that he will bomb, or help the Israelis to bomb (the media weasel word is “strike”) Iran back into the stone age, with the familiar, cynical, Talmudic doubletalk about “collateral damage” when the “surgical strikes” somehow drift beyond Iranian nuclear power facilities and into “command and control centers of the regime” (Iran’s civilian city centers.) This is the documented Israeli tactic against Lebanon and Palestine, and US military policy is becoming increasingly indistinguishable from Israeli barbarity."

What was true of Mitt Romney in 2012 is equally true of Donald Trump in 2024, only the latter once again has the US military at his disposal and is surrounded by Zionist fanatics who believe they’re entitled to a return on their deposit.

Thursday, November 7, 2024

US Stock Rally vs. Market Breadth | Jason Goepfert

The indices soared [on Wednesday, November 6] while the average stock did not. It was one of the worst-ever days for participation on a day the S&P 500 jumped more than 2.5%.

S&P 500 after a >2.5% gain with less than 70% NYSE up issues and up volume.

On the NYSE, fewer than 70% of issues rose, and less than 70% of volume flowed into those issues. This has only happened 3 unique times - the aftermath of the 1987 and 2020 crashes and around the 2000 peak.

 

 S&P 500 futures after gapping up more than 1% the day after the US presidential election.
 
On track for only the 3rd gap up of more than +1% the morning after an election since the inception of S&P 500 futures. The other two were pretty, pretty good.
 

The 24 Chinese Solar Terms in 2025 │ Winter Begins Today ( 立冬 - Lì Dōng )

 Winter begins on November 7, which is 225° from the Vernal Equinox (0° Aries). 
This is what W.D. Gann referred to as a Natural Trading Day. 225° represents 0.618 of the solar year.
 
A solar term ( 節氣 ) is one of twenty-four periods in the traditional Chinese lunisolar calendar, each corresponding to a specific astronomical event or natural phenomenon. Starting from the spring equinox, these points are spaced 15 degrees, or roughly 15 days, apart along the ecliptic and are used by lunisolar calendars to remain synchronized with the seasons.

Changes in trend often occur every 30° as the Sun moves into the next sign of the zodiac.
30° roughly equals one month, 30 calendar days or 21 trading days.
 
W.D. Gann knew that the astronomical year begins on March 21st and that this was also a very important seasonal time for financial markets. He used geometrical divisions of the solar year (degrees of solar longitude as well as calendar days) to ascertain turning points. Changes in trend often occur every 30° as the Sun moves into the next sign of the zodiac.
 
Dates at 45°, 90°, 135°, 180°, 225°, 270°, and 315° solar degrees from the Vernal Equinox (0° Aries) are what Gann called Natural Trading Days, with 225° representing 0.618 of the solar year (November 7). Though 15°, 22.5° and 45° also may coincide with changes in trend, Gann stressed the importance of the cardinal points (90° apart). He also used multiples of 90° and 144°, i.e., 90°, 180°, 270°, etc., and 144°, 288°, 432°, 576°, 720°, etc. 
  
 
Combining the Chinese Solar Terms and Gann astro-methods for market timing with the following concepts may further increase the probability of accurately pinpointing market turns:
 
 
 

 

Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish │ Jeff Hirsch

With a clear winner decided, the history of market gains from Presidential Election Day to year-end is encouraging. As shown in the tables above and below, the market tends to rally from Election Day to year-end, with a few exceptions due to exogenous factors.

 DJIA up 72.2% of the time, with an average gain of 2.38%.
S&P 500 up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%.
NASDAQ up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%.
Russell 2000 up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.

Profit-taking at the end of 1984 kept stocks flat after the rally from the July bear market bottom, driven by anticipation of Reagan’s landslide reelection victory. The infamous undecided election roiled stocks at the end of 2000 amid the dot-com bear market of 2000-2001. The Great Financial Crisis and the 2007-2009 generational bear market caused a further plunge in late 2008, fueled by shrinking economic data and uncertainty surrounding a change in party and the incoming, unknown Obama administration. The escalating European Debt Crisis kept the stock market on edge in late 2012.


Overall, from Election Day to year-end, the DJIA is up 72.2% of the time, with an average gain of 2.38%. The S&P 500 is up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%. The NASDAQ is up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%, and the Russell 2000 is up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.

Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points │ Jeff Hirsch


The first 5-6 trading days are typically bullish, followed by weakness in the week before Thanksgiving. The DJIA and S&P 500 strength has shifted to mirror the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the most bullish days occurring at the beginning and end of the month.
 
 
 November Performance in “All Years” (1930-2015) and “Election Years” (1932-2012) 
 
November Market Performance (2001-2021) — Jeff Hirsch,  October 20, 2022.
 
 S&P 500 and Nasdaq average performance during the presidential election week.
 
 
S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for November of the Election Year 2024.
Alternative approach: 4-Year Presidential Cycle in Line with the Decennial Cycle.

S&P 500 and the 3-Month VIX Relative to the VIX | Stephen Suttmeier


The 3-month VIX relative to the VIX (VIX3M/VIX) is below 1.0 and currently oversold. This tactical sentiment indicator signals fear heading into the 2024 Presidential election. We have observed similar conditions with the VIX3M/VIX being oversold ahead of the 2020 and 2016 Presidential elections. This suggests taking a contrarian bullish view on U.S. equities and supports the likelihood of a year-end rally.

The spot VIX Index is currently above all of its futures contracts, in spite of a drop on November 5th. This is a condition reliably associated with price bottoms (and/or worrisome elections).

Monday, November 4, 2024

S&P 500 vs VIX Put/Call Ratio | Jason Goepfert

Volume in VIX puts was more than two times that of calls on Friday.
That's one of the highest turnovers in 15 years.
It has typically spiked at times of extreme anxiety.

Jason Goepfert, November 4, 2024.
 
 Preliminary CBOE Put/Call Volume Ratio on Nov. 4 at 2PM ET 
is officially "pretty far up there".
 

 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars) | November 4, 2024.

Sunday, November 3, 2024

The United States Exists for War | Scott Ritter

Anyone hoping that the United States will be a force for peace is hoping in vain. We are not a force for peace; we are not wired for that. The United States exists for war. This is what President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned us about in his farewell address in 1961, when he spoke of the rise of the military-industrial complex working in concert with Congress to undermine American democracy.

 The US proves itself globally to be the primary source of strife, war, repression, and genocide.
» Electing a new president will not change this dynamic. «

It succeeded. America's democracy today is literally a shadow of what it could and should be. It doesn’t matter that we can all go out and vote on November 5th. Just look at who we are voting for. If you believe that having Kamala Harris representing the Democratic Party and Donald Trump representing the Republican Party indicates a politically healthy America, you are mistaken. What it shows is that America is among the most unhealthy nations in the world regarding democracy and politics.

We are deeply diseased. We have an establishment that thrives on global confrontation. Our entire means of interfacing with the world—economically, diplomatically, and otherwise—is through violence. Look at how we propose to solve the Israeli-Gaza conflict: by providing billions of dollars in military assistance to Israel. We seem to have no other option. Even when we attempt to pressure Israel by stopping arms sales, it feels as though weapons are our sole contribution because it is all we know how to do. Consider Ukraine; that’s all we have.

 » Our entire means of interfacing with the world is through violence. «

In contrast, look at how China engages with the world through the Belt and Road Initiative, a $10 trillion infrastructure development program that has allowed China to win over the hearts, minds, and pocketbooks of nations while we seek to destroy everything. The primary American representative globally these days is the regional combat commander in the Middle East. If you're the ambassador of a major Middle Eastern country, your effectiveness hinges on the presence of the military representatives, because they are the ones calling the shots. The same is true in Europe and Asia; military influence is paramount.

The military is not meant to be a diplomatic agency, yet it has become the most important diplomatic agency of the United States. This reality tells us that our reason for existence is not peace; it is war. Electing a new president will not change this dynamic. Donald Trump may superficially speak the language of peace, but he is an instrument of war and power. He implies that he can project American economic power without backing it up with military force. Even when he talks about peace, it’s always underpinned by threats. For example, when he threatens Putin, claiming he’ll make those domes disappear, what does that really mean? It implies violence; that’s all we know how to do.

 » We have an establishment that thrives on global confrontation. «

This pattern persists across the political spectrum. The Democrats resort to economic violence, military violence, and political violence, just as the Republicans do. The CIA exists to undermine foreign governments, as we’ve just seen again in Georgia. The Georgian people, who held a fair and free election, find that the United States refuses to accept their democratic outcome because it was not the one we wanted. Consequently, we intervene, trying to instigate a Maidan-like revolution in Tbilisi, just as we did in Kiev.

 
» Now that Ukraine has failed, the US is preparing continental Europe for direct conflict with Russia. «
Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, November 3, 2024.

I wrote an article titled "The American Midas Touch." In ancient Greek mythology, King Midas is known for turning everything he touches into gold, but it also meant that everything he touched ultimately died. This is the American Midas Touch: we seek to turn everything to our benefit, but in doing so, we often bring about destruction. At the end of the day, we touch others and they die because we know only how to kill for our advantage. None of the candidates represent a force for peace, and America will never be a force for peace as we are currently configured.

 

What Is the US and Where Did It Come From? | Think About This Question

 
In the nearly two and a half centuries of its existence, this country has killed millions of innocent people around the world. And it has no intention of stopping. Nothing Personal - Just Business - that's their favorite slogan, with which they continue to kill people all over the world, divide other countries among themselves and start civil wars.

ooooOoooo
 
ooooOoooo
 
The whole world stands frozen in uneasy anticipation, waiting for the results of the presidential election in the distant land of US. There is no reason why we should have high expectations about it.

1. The outcome of the election will not change anything for Russia, as both candidates share the same bipartisan consensus that Russia must be defeated.
2. Kamala is dumb, inexperienced, and easy to control, as she will be terrified of everyone around her. All the real decision-making will be done by a coterie of top ministers and advisors plus (indirectly) the Obamas.
3. A low-energy Trump, spewing clichés like 'I'll offer them a deal' and 
'I have a very good relationship with...,' will be forced to comply with the system and its rules. He won't stop the war. Not in one day, not in three days, not in three months. And if he actually attempts to do it, he could end up becoming the new JFK.
4. The only thing that matters is how much cash the new POTUS can squeeze out of Congress to finance someone else's war, fought in a far-off land. Cash to feed the American military-industrial complex and to line the pockets of the Banderite scum in Ukraine.
5. That is why, if we want to please both candidates for the highest American office, the best thing to do on November 5 is keep pummeling the Nazi regime in Kiev! 


ooooOoooo
 
 
Trump's Derangement Syndrome.

Friday, November 1, 2024

The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks | Lars von Thienen

The weekly S&P 500 shows that the nominal 180-week cycle, currently at 177 weeks, is in an early topping stage. This long-awaited time cycle has been monitored since the end of 2023 and has been cited as a key driver for the upturn lasting into this window. Now that we have arrived at this point, we need to pay close attention to the shorter-term cycles and technical indicators.

Weekly S&P 500 with nominal 180 weeks / 41-Month Kitchin Cycle topping | October 23, 2024

Before moving to the daily cycle analysis, it is worth noting that the cyclic-tuned RSI indicator has reached the upper band, indicating a "bull exhaustion" mode. This condition can turn within days into a "bulls tired" and/or "bulls exit" state, signaling that we are primed for a longer-term reversal. The same weekly cycles situation can be observed on the NASDAQ.

NASDAQ weekly cycles | October 23, 2024

Let's now examine the daily cycles, starting with the S&P 500 model.

 » The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. «
 S&P 500 daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The main cycles are the 192-day and the harmonic 89-day trading cycles. The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. The cRSI indicator shows we are nearing the upper band, which could also signal a final year-end rally before both daily cycles align with the downward-trending weekly cycle noted earlier. A similar perspective can be observed in the Nasdaq daily data.

Nasdaq Composite daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The shorter-term daily cycles with lengths of 80 and 200 trading days on the Nasdaq model are rolling over now and will likely continue into the end of 2024. These cycles are also coming into alignment with the next long-term downward swing, which is in sync with the long-term cycles shown earlier.

It's worth noting that we're seeing a divergence forming, as the market experienced a clear topping pattern in June of this year: At that time, the composite model peaked while the cRSI was breaking down below the upper band, issuing a sell signal. The price never went back to achieve a higher high, and the cRSI is indicating an even bigger divergence between the price action and the signal line. The technical indicators shown below have been adjusted to the cycles detected and mentioned above. The highlighted red or green shaded areas indicate that the higher timeframe - here the weekly S&P 500 - is also taken into consideration. 

S&P 500 - cRSI cyclic indicator | October 23, 2024

The multi-timeframe cyclic technical indicator is showing a clear divergence between price and the signal. While the weekly chart confirms another overbought situation at the time the divergence signal emerges, this provides technical confirmation of a possible top in place. A similar technical condition can be observed on the NASDAQ.
 
Nasdaq Composite | October 23, 2024

 

Iran's Crushing Blow to the Israeli Regime is Coming | Mohammad Marandi

Iran will definitely respond to Israel's attack on October 26th because it needs to create deterrence. The Zionist regime is not a normal state; it is a genocidal entity that is carrying out a Holocaust before the eyes of the world. It conducts genocidal airstrikes on Lebanon, slaughters people in Gaza and the West Bank, regularly bombs Syria, and attacks Iran. It is a lawless regime, and the only way to stop it is to slap it down.

  » We are approaching the conclusion of what is termed Israel. «

In the past, Iran has demonstrated a significant amount of strategic patience. It can certainly outgun the Israeli regime, possessing numerous missile and drone facilities across the country. These facilities were created to protect against a potential American attack and are well secured, situated deep underground. The reason the Americans have never attacked Iran is its ability to defend itself.

The Israeli regime, on the other hand, is small, vulnerable, and entirely dependent on the West. In any major exchange, its infrastructure would be swiftly destroyed. However, Iran does not want a regional war, and neither does anyone else. It is only the Israelis who seek a regional conflict, hoping for American involvement. Iran aims to demonstrate to the world, particularly to the Global South, that it is not trying to instigate a regional war, as such a conflict would jeopardize the global economy—something no one desires.

If the Americans become involved, their military bases in the Persian Gulf region, Iraq, and Syria would be swept away. More importantly, the family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf would lose their oil and gas installations, leading to the collapse of these regimes. This scenario would further contribute to the downfall of the global economy. That is not what any sane person wants. Yet, the Israeli regime appears willing to sacrifice everyone for its genocidal interests.

This time around, however, the Iranians will strike Israel significantly harder. Iran has hundreds of thousands of drones and missiles prepared for war and can launch nearly 2,000 drones and missiles in a single wave, with the capability to fire multiple waves thereafter—something the Israelis cannot counter.

The Iranian drones used in previous retaliations were outdated, but Iran possesses very advanced drones and missiles, including hypersonic missiles that have not yet been utilized. There are many capabilities Iran has not revealed; until now, it has focused on gathering intelligence and assessing the Israeli regime's lack of defensive ability. When the time comes, Iran will undoubtedly strike the Israeli regime, which could happen any day now, possibly tonight or tomorrow. It is inevitable.


Conditions are expected to worsen for the Israeli regime. It has failed to make any real inroads into southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah has punished them. As this battle progresses, the situation will only deteriorate for the Israeli regime, which has bitten off more than it can chew. It is currently being hammered in both the north and in Gaza, and its global image has been severely damaged.

The people of the Zionist entity are unaware of how deeply despised they are worldwide and how poorly their armed forces are performing in Gaza and Lebanon.
The Israeli regime is despised across all continents, particularly among the youth. Slaughter is not an achievement. Israelis may perceive the killing of women and children as a success because they view them as Amalek, but every child killed generates more hatred globally. On the battlefield, Hezbollah has shown its ability to significantly harm the regime, not only inflicting casualties but also damaging the Israeli economy. We must always remember that the Israeli regime has far more to lose than Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran, which are under US and Western sanctions.
 
Ultimately, when a ceasefire occurs, it will signify the failure of the Israeli regime. Once ordinary Israelis wake up to the reality that they cannot win this war against the Palestinian people, the Lebanese people, and others in the region, and once they recognize the world's disgust towards them, it will mark the end of the Zionist project. This may take a few years, but we are approaching the conclusion of what is termed Israel.

 
 
To date the US has funded 73% of military costs associated with Israel’s war on Gaza. Washington has provided $22.76 billion in military aid to Israel from October 7, 2023, to September 30, 2024, according to an analysis by Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs. This is why AIPAC sponsors the US government.

Crude Oil Prices vs. Global Excess Liquidity | Simon White

Oil prices are set to rebound due to a historic rise in global liquidity. These are strange days indeed. Policy has been eased in an economy showing scant definitive signs of accelerated slowing; liquidity conditions, which were already robust, have been turbocharged.
 

The recent rise in G10 excess liquidity to a level it has only eclipsed once before is a very positive tailwind for crude prices.