Monday, December 23, 2024

The Panama Canal, Greenland, and Trump 2.0 | Andrew Korybko

Trump threatened that the US might retake control of the Panama Canal if it remains under indirect partial Chinese management and continues to charge the US what he described as exorbitant rates for passage. He then posted shortly after that, "For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity." Both are his for the taking if he really wants them, but it’s unclear whether he does.

 » Available for Trump to claim if he truly desires. «

As regards the Panama Canal, Trump's immediate imperative appears to be rolling back Chinese influence over this crucial waterway, which he seemingly fears could be leveraged by the People's Republic to cut the US off from transoceanic shipment in the event of a crisis over Taiwan. He might also want to coerce Panama into shutting down illegal migrant routes to the US via the Darien Gap. Both are sensible from the perspective of his MAGA worldview that aims to restore the US' unipolar hegemony.

His objectives in Greenland might be similar in the sense of ensuring that Chinese companies don't obtain a monopoly over that island's critical mineral reserves as well as preventing the construction of "dual-use infrastructure" that might one day give Beijing military and intelligence advantages. Direct control over sparsely populated and practically undefended Greenland, which formally remains part of Denmark, is seen as the most effective means to that end.
 
  » A monopoly over the island's critical mineral reserves. «

Trump's threat to the Panama Canal and his claim to Greenland are also likely meant to appeal to his supporters' expectations that he'll "Make America Great Again" in a visible geopolitical way. Even if he doesn't impose formal US control over them, expelling Chinese influence from both and replacing it with US economic influence could be enough to satiate them. This could also solidify his legacy and lay the basis for his successor, who'd probably be
JD Vance, to establish formal control sometime later.
 

Both are Trump's for the taking if he really wants them since neither could meaningfully oppose the US military if he authorizes an invasion. They'd be low-cost operations with high economic and political returns even though they'd occur at the expense of the US' international reputation. The global community would predictably decry them as imperialist invasions, but nobody would stand in the US' way nor sanction it afterwards. The most that might follow is harsh rhetoric, nothing more substantive.
 
Quoted from:

See also:

Possible 2025-1981 Analogue for the S&P | Tom McClellan & Branimir Vojcic

The S&P 500 in 2024 closely mirrors its performance in 1980, the year Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in the presidential election. Wall Street celebrated Reagan's victory, expecting him to be a transformative leader capable of resolving the nation’s problems. However, despite Reagan's eventual success, the first two years of his presidency were challenging for stock investors.

 Upper chart: S&P 500 vs shifted 1978-81 pattern.
Lower chart: S&P 500 vs daily spectrum cycle analysis composite.
Do not compare shapes; only focus on market turning points, which occur on very similar dates.
 
Whether 2025 will follow a pattern similar to 1981 remains a topic of ongoing analysis. For now, attention is focused on the sharp market dip triggered by the December 18, 2024 FOMC meeting. The Fed announced a 0.25% rate cut, as expected, but tempered expectations for additional rate cuts in 2025, leading to a wave of sell-offs. This recent dip mirrors a similar decline that bottomed on December 11, 1980.

The difficulties of a transformative presidency are evident, as Reagan faced challenges in implementing his policies. Similar obstacles may arise for Trump, and even if his efforts succeed, there is a risk that investors could be overestimating their potential impact—much like the overoptimism seen in 1980.

Sunday, December 22, 2024

Cosmic Cluster Days | January 2025

Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. However, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows—also within the 'noise channel'—may correlate with or coincide with market movements and reversals. 
 
Cosmic Cluster Day  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel
= Full Moon | = New Moon
Dec 19 (Thu) | Jan 03 (Fri) | Jan 04 (Sat) | Jan 18 (Sat) | Jan 19 (Sun) | Jan 29 (Wed) | Feb 02 (Sun)
 
For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation methods, click [HERE]. See also:
 

Thursday, December 19, 2024

Ap Index of Geomagnetic Activity and S&P 500 Returns | Lifang Peng et al.

Existing research provides strong evidence that geomagnetic activity impacts stock investment decisions by influencing human health, mood, and behavior. Using monthly geomagnetic indices and US stock market indices from the past 20 years, we found compelling evidence supporting a causal relationship between geomagnetic activity and stock market returns.
 
High AP Index, low stock market performance—really?
 
The results were robust, indicating that higher geomagnetic activity, which often corresponds with intense solar activity, is inversely related to stock market performance. In other words, when geomagnetic activity was higher, the stock market tended to perform worse.

 
 The semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity is linked to the interaction between the solar wind and Earth's tilted magnetic field, which typically causes increased geomagnetic disturbances around the equinoxes and lower activity around the solstices.
 

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Strong Inverse Correlation between Ap Index and Gold Price | Vladimir Belkin

A strong inverse correlation (coefficient -0.7879) between the geomagnetic Ap Index and the gold price, with a one-year lag, is observed over 57 years of data.
 
 Strong inverse correlation, with a one-year lag—seriously?
 
Based on the results of his study, the author predicts a significant decline in the price of gold in 2024.
 

 Gold (weekly bars) – January 1 to December 17, 2024: +28%.

2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity | Vladimir Belkin

This study of solar-terrestrial relationships compares the years of the solar cycle based on Wolf sunspot numbers and the arithmetic averages of crude oil prices from 1970 to 2023 (solar cycles 20-25), all presented in a single chart. Mean annual Wolf numbers were sourced from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC), while Brent crude oil price data (adjusted to 2021 dollars) was obtained from BP and the Federal Reserve Economic Data website for 2022-2023.

Order of years in solar cycles and crude oil prices for the period 1970-2023.
Very strong correlation (coefficient 0.9908)
 
Using this data, the above diagram was created to illustrate the very strong correlation (coefficient 0.9908) between crude oil prices and the ordinal years of the solar cycles for the period 1970-2023.
 

Since 2024 marks the fifth year of the current Solar Cycle #25, it corresponds to an average forecast Brent oil price of $74.18 per barrel. In 2025, the sixth year of the cycle, the projected price is $56.04. In 2026, the seventh year of the cycle, the forecast is $43.84, while the anticipated price for 2027 is $42.84.
 
Reference: 
 

Sunspot Number 2018 into 20
32 (NASA, updated December 5, 2024).
 

Google Censorship Against TPR | Sincerely, The Blogger Team

December 17, 2024
 
Hello, your post titled "Pentagon Staged COVID-19 Plandemic Years in Advance | Sasha Latypova" [February 15, 2024] was flagged to us for review. We have determined that it violates our guidelines and deleted the post, previously at http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2024/02/pentagon-staged-covid-19-plandemic.html. Why was your blog post deleted? Your content has violated our Misleading Content policy. 
 
Sincerely, The Blogger Team
 
 
See instead:
Sasha Latypova Reveals COVID Pandemic Was a Dept. of Defense Operation Dating Back to Obama Regime, November 25, 2024:
https://rumble.com/v5sevk2-covid-pandemic-dod-operation.html

Sasha Latypova on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s podcast, March 15, 2023:
 
 

Monday, December 16, 2024

Sir Isaac Newton's South Sea Bubble Nightmare

In 1720 Isaac Newton had the good fortune to invest early in the South Sea Bubble, making a quick and decent profit. Satisfied with his gains, he exited before the bubble fully inflated. However, as he saw his friends amass incredible wealth, he couldn't resist re-entering the market. In an attempt to make up for lost time, he invested far more—some of it borrowed—and, unfortunately, bought in just before the bubble burst. As the stock plummeted, he lost almost everything, with his investment returning to roughly the value of his initial, smaller stake. It's said that Newton, reflecting on his experience, remarked, "I can calculate the movement of heavenly bodies but not the madness of men."
 
»
There is nothing so disturbing to one's well-being and judgment as to see a friend get rich.
« 
 
Sir Isaac reportedly lost the equivalent of $4 to $5 million today, which amounted to almost the entirety of his investment in the South Sea Company. While this was a huge blow to his wealth, it did not leave him destitute, and he still maintained a fortune, though his stake in the company was essentially wiped out, losing around 90% of its value.

Friday, December 13, 2024

US Stock Market at the Cliff — Don't Be a Lemming | Lars von Thienen

[...] The chart below depicts a composite model of all identified cycles in the P/E Shiller data from 1900-2024. Notably, the "cliff" phenomenon, where all cycles synchronize their peaks at a single point in time, has only occurred in 1929, 2000, and now appears to be happening again in 2024. 
 
 Composite Cycle Analysis Model for the P/E Ratio of the S&P500 from 1900-2024 | December 6, 2024.

[...] The 42-Month Cycle has the highest strength and is the dominant cycle in the dataset. This 42-Month Cycle is generally significant for financial markets, as it has been identified across numerous financial assets. Let's take a closer look at what makes this cycle so special in this case. Starting with the current situation, the 42-Month Cycle has topped at major market peaks, such as the internet bubble in 2000, the financial crisis in 2007, and 2021. Additionally, the bottoms of this cycle have been synchronized.
 
42-Month Cycle in the P/E S&P 500 Ratio | 1900-1950.

42-Month Cycle in the P/E S&P 500 Ratio | 1999–2024.

[...] A cycle that remains remarkably stable in length and phase over 120 years is quite uncommon. As shown in the upper chart, the 42-Month Cycle is also currently reaching its peak and transitioning into a downward phase, which is expected to continue into 2026.

Tuesday, December 10, 2024

2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'

In J.M. Funk's chart of the "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression," the year 2025 belongs to the sequence of 1801-1857-1913-1969. This sequence is connected by a long clock hand or needle to the center of the chart, labeled "Panic. Dumping.
 
2025 in the 56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression.
(J.M. Funk's original chart of 1932, redrawn by David Williams in 1982)
 
» A knowledge of the present and history is therefore a key to the future. Until Government Standards are based upon the recognition of exterior forces (which govern human conduct) history will repeat itself. THE CHART WILL PREDICT THE FUTURE because the human make-up includes, aspiration, greed, intemperance, fickleness, etc., which traits are governed by endurance; 
endurance is governed by exterior forces which fluctuate in rhythm and tempo 
as constantly as the Sun in its journey through the heavens. «  
James Morris Funk, 1932.
 
  • The Panic of 1801 marked the end of the first phase of the Napoleonic Wars and brought an abrupt halt to the prosperity the US had been experiencing from the carrying trade. Stock prices on the NYSE fell by about 25%.
  • The Panic of 1857 was caused by bank failures, railroad overextension, and falling commodity prices, leading to a financial collapse. The stock market lost about 30%, and numerous businesses and banks failed. The crisis resulted in a severe recession, which lasted until 1859.
  • The Panic of 1913-14 was triggered by the Balkan Wars (1912-13), which foreshadowed war among Europe's major powers. This resulted in a gradual liquidation of US securities by European investors, culminating in a 40% loss by August 1914, when the NYSE closed for four months.
 
 DJIA (daily closes) 1912-1915.
  • Throughout 1969, the S&P 500 continued to decline from its November 29, 1968 peak, falling by 37% to its low on May 25, 1970 (18 months)—marking the worst bear market since 1937-38.  
 
  DJIA (daily bars) 1965-1973.

 Through the 9-year subcycle, 2025 is also related to 2016, 2007, 1998, etc. 
 
There are two other long needles extending from the center of Funk's chart, pointing to the sequences 1817-1873-1929-1985 and 1837-1893-1949-2005: According to Funk, in each 56-year period three major panic periods occur at 20-20-16 year intervals.  
 
So, was there a panic or significant decline in 1985? No. The DJIA closed the year up by 28%. But then in fact, 2005 was the first "fifth year" of any decade in the history of the DJIA to close in the negative, with a shocking decline of 0.6%. Since the 1880s, the fifth year in each Decennial Cycle has been, on average, the most profitable year of the entire cycle, and this pattern may well repeat itself in 2025 as well. The best argument against a positive outlook for 2025 is the fact that the US stock markets have already surpassed the crest of the 42-month cycle, which is expected to bottom out in the first quarter of 2026.
 
 Dow Jones industrial Average 1985 and 2005 (weekly bars).

Then there is this needle from the outer white ring, pointing to 2024, with the label
"High Prices. Sell Save" (which corresponds to the major high of November 29, 1968 and, as expected, a major high in December 2024), and another needle from the inner white ring, pointing to around the cusp of 2026-2027 is labeled "Low Prices. Buy" (which corresponds to the January and May 1970 major lows in the S&P 500 – for more details, see the monthly chart below).
 
Since the 1760s, all major financial crises in the US and Western Europe have consistently clustered around Funk's 56-Year Cycle and its subcycles, which all appear to be closely connected to Moon-Sun tidal harmonics. David Williams concluded: "The results show conclusively that regardless of wars, rebellions, population changes, industrialization, technological, and monetary changes, American business has been dominated by a 56-year rhythm." 
 
The 56-Year Pattern of American Business Activity since 1761 vs. Planetary Cycles & Table with the
Accuracy of Major Planetary Aspects of the Jupiter-Uranus Cycle and the Jupiter Saturn Cycle at 
Business Cycle Turning Points 1929-1982 (Williams, 1982).
  
However, also note that the projections of the Four Year Presidential Cycle (see also HERE), the Decennial Cycle (see also HERE), and the Benner Cycle present distinctly different scenarios and outcomes for 2025 and the coming years. And, by the way, BlackRock just canceled the Business Cycle.
 
Reference:
J.M. Funk (1932) - The 56-Year Cycle in American Business Activity. Privately published. Ottawa. IL.
LCdr. David Williams (1947) - Rhythmic Cycles in American Business. 
LCdr. David Williams (1959) - Astro-Economics.
LCdr. David Williams (1982) - Financial Astrology
 S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.
December 11, 1968 to December 11, 2024 = (365.2422 * 56) = 20,454 days apart.
Blue line = S&P 500 daily closes shifted forward 20,454 days = Funk Cycle.

  S&P 500 Index (monthly bars) 1966 - 1972.
» Throughout 1969, the NYSE continued to decline from its December 1968 peak 
[= December 2024], falling by 37% to its low in May 1970 [= May 2027]. «

See also: