Saturday, September 27, 2025

S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September | Wayne Whaley

Since 1950, whenever the S&P 500 gained 10% or more in the first three quarters and September was positive, the fourth quarter has historically been positive 80% of the time (16 out of 20 years). The average gain for the fourth quarter during these years is 4.42%. The best performance observed was +11.36%, while the worst was a loss of -1.26%.

Looking at 2025, as of September 27, with only two trading days left in the month, the first three quarters of the year have seen a total gain of 12.96%, with 2.84% of that gain coming from September alone.
 
Since 1950, after the S&P 500 had gained 10%+ in first three quarters and with a positive September, the fourth-quarter performance was positive 80% of the time (16-4 up-down) with an average gain of 4.42%.

October: The market has been negative in October 55% of the time (9 years up, 11 down) with an average loss of -0.44%. The best performance was +4.46%, while the worst was -6.86%.

October 20–27: During this specific period, the market has been down 80% of the time (4 years up, 16 down), with an average decline of -1.29%. The best performance was +1.22%, and the worst was -8.23%.

November: In contrast, November has been positive 80% of the time (16 years up, 4 down), with an average gain of +3.41%. The best was a gain of +10.24%, while the worst was a decline of -1.89%.

December: December has been positive 75% of the time (15 years up, 5 down), with an average gain of +1.47%. The best performance was +5.25%, and the worst was -3.39%.

Combining November and December, the performance has been positive 90% of the time (18 years up, 2 down), with an average gain of 4.81%. The best combined performance was +13.57%, while the worst was a modest -0.45%.

The average absolute drawdown in the fourth quarter was -2.66%. The worst was -8.64%, though the period also saw potential upside gains of up to +12.00%.
  
Reference:
 
 
 

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Thursday, September 25, 2025

October Seasonality of US Stock Indexes in Post-Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

October has typically opened on a soft note, with mixed results on its first trading day. The second day has tended to be weak—except for the Russell 2000—before a rebound on day three. 
 

That strength often gives way to further declines through the seventh or eighth trading day, where the market has historically found support and begun a rally lasting into mid-month and beyond. In post-election years since 1950, October has been stronger from the outset, with gains extending through the 15th or 16th trading day before fading into month-end.
 
The S&P 500 is bullishly defying bearish expectations, setting five or more new all-time highs in historically bearish September. With our best-case 2025 forecast firmly in play and the Super AI-Tech Boom accelerating, the index could surge to 7,100 within the next three months.

US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025 | Larry Williams

Current market cycles suggest near-term weakness across the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones. The same pattern that accurately forecasted last April’s rally now points to a pullback. 
 
» Expect weakness in Bitcoin, gold, and stocks in the near term. Not a bear market yet, 
but caution is warranted. Cycles and fundamentals together suggest a pullback is ahead. «
 
The 255-day S&P cycle, which has consistently identified past buy and sell points, indicates we are in a weak phase lasting into spring 2026, with the next major buying opportunity around the turn of the year.
 
 » The S&P has a 255-day cycle. Historically, it has nailed buy and sell points 
remarkably well. Right now, we are in the weak part of that cycle. «

This weakness is not expected to trigger a crash, but rather a corrective phase after a strong run, followed by a probable year-end rally. The 2025 forecast of a bullish trend and March buying opportunity proved accurate; the 2026 outlook projects early weakness, then a recovery.

Fundamentally, stocks are overvalued relative to bonds and gold, historically a precursor to declines. This reinforces caution, even without technical confirmation. 
 
» Yes, maybe some weakness—but nothing like 1929 or 1970. 
So, I wouldn’t jump to Dalio’s conclusions. «

Ray Dalio has warned of an 80-year cycle implying severe turmoil. However, analysis of past instances (1863, 1946) shows mostly sideways markets rather than major collapses. The cycle may suggest weakness but not systemic crisis.

In summary
: expect a corrective phase in equities, with parallel declines in gold and Bitcoin, but no imminent bear market. Year-end rally potential remains, and cycles continue to provide reliable foresight.
 17:19 - NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones  
20:33 - Stocks Overvalued and 80 Year Cycle?
 
The 13-Week Cycle in Stocks.
 
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Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Global Demographic Crash and the Death of Growth | Anu Madgavkar

Falling fertility rates below replacement (2.1 children per woman) in two-thirds of humanity are driving global population shifts toward depopulation by 2100. UN projections show populations in major economies declining 20-50%, with age structures inverting from pyramids to obelisks: fewer youth, more seniors. 
 
Demographic shifts are transforming population pyramids into shallots or obelisks, with fewer youth and more seniors. The world’s countries are grouped into ten regions: Advanced Asia, Central/Eastern Europe, Emerging Asia, Greater China, India, Latin America/Caribbean, Middle East/North Africa, North America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Western Europe. In advanced economies, population structures are increasingly top-heavy, resembling obelisks, due to declining fertility and aging populations. 
First-wave regions (advanced economies and China) face immediate impacts, with working-age shares dropping from 67% to 59% by 2050. Later-wave regions (emerging Asia, India, Latin America, Middle East/North Africa) peak in the 2030s; Sub-Saharan Africa, the exception, peaks post-2080.
 
The story of collapsing demographics starts in Luxembourg, the first country the United Nations recorded as having a fertility rate below replacement in 1950, when it first started collecting data.
Luxembourg’s fertility rate rebounded in the 1950s, however, making Serbia and Croatia, both part of Yugoslavia at the time, the first countries where fertility permanently dropped below the replacement threshold, in 1963 and in 1968, respectively. Within a year, fertility rates in Denmark, Finland, and Luxembourg had followed suit. None of these countries has had a fertility rate equal to or above replacement since then.
Twenty years later, most countries in Advanced Asia, Europe, and North America had crossed the replacement fertility threshold.
Subsequently, fertility rates in countries at varying levels of economic development around the world have fallen below replacement—in Thailand in 1989, Mexico in 2015, and India in 2019.
Sub-Saharan Africa is the one region of the world today where fertility rates remain high and are likely to stay above the replacement rate beyond the next quarter century.
Economic consequences include slowed GDP per capita growth by 0.4% annually on average in first-wave regions through 2050, unless offset by levers: doubled-to-quadrupled productivity growth, 1-5 extra weekly work hours per person, or migration boosting working-age populations. Senior dependency rises, with support ratios (working-age per senior) falling from 6.5 globally to 3.9, widening the "senior gap" (consumption minus income) by 1.3-1.5 times. Public pensions, covering 40-80% of gaps, strain finances; asset appreciation (e.g., real estate) has supported seniors but may falter for future generations.

Global Fertility Rate and Annual Population Growth: Top and Bottom 20 Countries in 2025.

Consumption shifts: seniors drive 25% of global spending by 2050 (double 1997), favoring healthcare (up 5-29% per capita) over education (down 4-33%). Labor markets age, with 50+ workers comprising 37% of hours worked in first-wave regions by 2050.
 
Later-wave regions must "get rich before old," accelerating productivity (median $13/hour vs. $60 in high-income) via investment, human capital, and job creation to capture demographic dividends before they vanish. Two-thirds may not reach high-income thresholds before matching first-wave aging.

Responses: Boost productivity through AI/automation; adapt workforces for seniors via flexible hours, retraining; target senior consumers with tailored products (e.g., adaptive clothing, fall sensors); reform pensions by raising retirement ages; enhance female participation and migration integration. Societies must rethink norms on fertility, caregiving, and intergenerational equity to avert lower growth and eroded wealth flows. 
 

Monday, September 22, 2025

Hurst Cycles Notes on the S&P 500: 20-Day Trough, Now Up | David Hickson

General outlook: US Dollar and USDJPY bouncing out of 80-day cycle troughs. Gold up. Oil struggling to confirm 80-day trough. Copper and EURUSD dropping to 80-day troughs. SPX, Nikkei, Bitcoin all formed 20-day troughs in new 20-week cycle. Ten year notes looking for 80-day cycle trough.

S&P500 E–Minis (ES) - subtle 20-day trough in new 20-week cycle. Up.


The S&P 500 e-minis continue their march upward in the new 20-week cycle. A subtle 20-day cycle trough formed last week, bullish pressure revealed by the fact price could not reach down to the 20-day FLD. There is a 40-day cycle trough looming in the second week of October. Up. 

 
 
J.M. Hurst's Nominal 20-Day and 40-Day Cycles.



 Three weeks up out of Sep 2 low; three pushes out of Sep 17 20-day cycle low; week
Sep 22-26 (XAMD); re-accumulation; Sep 24-25 lowup Oct 3-6down ≈ Oct 24. 
 
See also: 

Saturday, September 20, 2025

Antisemitism: The Eternal Wildcard of False Semites | Alberto García Watson

Ah, antisemitism, that magic word which, as if by enchantment, freezes any conversation and turns an awkward debate into a summary trial. Utter it, and the room falls silent, as if someone cast a medieval spell. Who needs arguments, evidence, or history when you wield a term armored by over a century of weary repetition?

שנה טובה .זֶה חֲלִיפָתִי, זֶה תְּמוּרָתִי, זֶה כַּפָּרָת
 » A happy New Year! This is my exchange, this is my substitute [Tsar Nicholas II as a rooster], this is my atonement. «
Eastern European Jewish Rosh Hashanah greeting card, 1900s. 

Historian Felix Morgenstern reminds us of what seems too obvious to need explaining: there are Semitic Jews, yes. But so are Arabs, Assyrians, Ethiopians, and other peoples who’ve spoken Semitic languages and lived in the region for centuries. In other words, the Semite club has many members. Or rather, it did. Because when political neolanguage arrived, someone decided to close the membership registry and leave only one guest on the list.

Thus, antisemitism doesn’t mean what it sounds like—hatred toward Semitic peoples—but something far more selective: hatred toward one group, excluding all others. Arabs? Left out. Palestinians? Invisible. Ethiopians? Better not mention them. It’s like being sold a ticket to “the concert of all jazz artists”… only to hear a single out-of-tune clarinet.
 
 שנה טובה תהיה לנו. נגשים את חלום הדורות לבנות את הארץ
May we have a good year! May you succeed in your endeavor to ascend to the Land of Israel! 
Central European Jewish Rosh Hashanah greeting card, 1920s.

Why this strange semantic amputation? Because the word was never meant to be precise. According to Encyclopaedia Britannica, the term was coined in 1879 by a German, Wilhelm Marr, a professional agitator and creative hate-marketer who thought “Jew-hatred” sounded too crude. So, he wrapped it in pseudo-scientific cellophane and baptized it with the serious tone of a philological treatise. And thus, a propaganda act became a moral category. The trick was so good we’re still using it a century and a half later.
 
Oh, well, then. 
 
But here’s where the story gets even more ironic: most modern Israelis aren’t direct descendants of the ancient Hebrews of the Holy Land but Ashkenazi, descendants of Eastern European Jewish communities, many of whom trace their origins to the Khazars, a Turkic people who converted to Judaism in the Middle Ages. In other words, much of modern Israel is made up of medieval Caucasian converts who today hand out “authentic Semite” badges.
 
»
This is why they seek to destroy Palestine, why they want to neutralize Iran and anyone who could defend Al-Quds:
They want full control over Jerusalem, demolish the holy sites of Islam, and replace them with their Third Temple
to welcome their false messiah, the Antichrist, the Dajjal. And in America, this agenda is no secret. «
September, 2025.
 
Rosh Hashanah 2023 vs Rosh Hashanah 2025: 
Gaza City, then and now.

Israeli fighter jets destroy Mushtaha Tower in Gaza City. Hundreds of displaced
Palestinians set up tents nearby — only to be forced to evacuate again.
September, 2025.
 
Circulating footage shows US military personnel protesting
against Washington's backing of Israel's genocide in Gaza.
September, 2025.
 
False Semite Israeli ZioNazi, addressing children in Gaza,
announces further mass slaughter of them and their parents.
September, 2025. 
 
Meanwhile, Palestinians—rarely included in the equation—have, according to multiple genetic studies, far greater biological continuity with the ancient Hebrews of the region. That is, those labeled “antisemites” carry in their DNA the memory of biblical Semites, while those accusing them, in most cases, lack significant genetic ties to the Holy Land. A historical joke so cruel even Aristophanes wouldn’t dare write it.

 Jewish tradition, Israeli pride. The Israel Forever Foundation.
September, 2025.
 
Morgenstern sums it up with academic precision and restrained sarcasm: “The only thing I refuse to tolerate more than prejudice, intolerance, and racism… is deliberate ignorance and the bastardization of language. If you don’t know what something means, don’t repeat it.” And yet, it’s repeated. And repeated. And repeated. 
 
»
Ethnic cleansing didn’t work. Siege didn’t work. Now—genocide. «
Israeli historian Ilan Pappé on Israel’s genocide in Gaza, August 5, 2025.
 
»
Nothing is more despicable than playing the Holocaust card to justify the daily Israeli crimes against the Palestinians. «
Norman Finkelstein, Case Western University, Ohio, 2008.
 
The word antisemitism is deployed in political speeches, news headlines, and institutional statements like an untouchable wildcard. And every time it’s used, the same thing happens: a deceitful definition is reinforced, erasing millions of legitimate Semites from the map. The irony is too great to ignore:

A word that should include all Semitic peoples excludes nearly all of them.
A narrative that claims to defend historical memory twists it to erase entire genealogies.
And a term born as a disguise for hatred is now used as a moral weapon to silence any criticism.

» Any people who have been persecuted for two thousand years must be doing something wrong. «  
 
So, the next time you hear antisemitism from a politician, journalist, or pundit, ask yourself: What are we really talking about? Hatred of Semites… or a linguistic monopoly that shields a narrative? Because if there’s anything more discriminatory than open hatred, it’s hatred disguised as respectable language. And antisemitism is precisely that—a term that, under the mask of fighting intolerance, perpetuates the greatest historical irony: turning its back on the true Semites. 
 
In short, a semantic error from the 19th century became a 21st-century dogma. That’s why, if the word were used honestly, the greatest act of antisemitism today would be the genocide of the Palestinian people—pure Semites—at the hands of those who monopolize the term for themselves.

 

See also:

Heliocentric Planetary Events and Financial Markets | Malcolm Bucholtz

The research of astronomers and physicists such as Nicola Scafetta (Italy), Roger Tattersall (UK), and Ian R. G. Wilson (Australia) suggests that gravitational torque exerted by planetary alignments on the Sun’s plasma layers modulates solar radiation. These torques intensify when heliocentric planetary aspects align at 0°, 90°, 120°, and 180°. The Sun, as a fluid-like sphere of plasma, responds dynamically, torque destabilizes its equilibrium and amplifies radiative output.

Primarily, the orbits of Mercury, Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn drive the Sun’s motion around the solar system’s center of mass (CM) and generate torques on its outer plasma layers, corresponding to numerous cycles observed on Earth.
This excess quantum energy propagates outward, penetrates Earth’s geomagnetic shield, and interacts with the human brain at the neuronal level. Microscopic receptors in nerve cells appear sensitive to such quantum fluctuations, giving rise to what we recognize as emotion. Collective emotion or mood, in turn, governs social behavior: positive affect fosters risk-seeking, bullish dynamics in financial markets, while fear induces risk-aversion and bearish trends. Thus, planetary configurations that heighten solar emissions manifest indirectly as systematic shifts in the sentiment of financial market participants.

Nicola Scafetta, a physicist and climate scientist at the University of Naples Federico II, has published extensively on how planetary harmonics synchronize with solar and climate oscillations. His semi-empirical models demonstrate that cycles linked to Mercury, Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn correspond with variations in solar activity and, by extension, climate patterns. He has argued that planetary–solar resonances are physically meaningful and statistically coherent, particularly at 20-year, 60-year, and longer-term cycles.

Ian R. G. Wilson, an independent academic researcher, in turn, has investigated how periodic peaks in planetary tidal forces and spin–orbit coupling may modulate the solar cycle. His work emphasizes that alignments involving Venus, Jupiter, and Saturn can amplify tidal torques on the Sun, coinciding with observed sunspot cycle minima and maxima.

Roger Tattersall has developed a complementary framework, treating the solar system as a resonant harmonic structure, where orbital interactions impose rhythmic signals on solar activity. He contends that planetary motion imprints resonant frequencies on both solar variability and long climate records, underscoring the systemic coherence of planetary–solar–terrestrial dynamics.
 
To illustrate their findings and central theses, I have prepared three charts showing how planetary alignments from May through September 2025 coincided with pronounced market reversals or periods of consolidation:

Gold futures (daily candles), May to September 2025.

McGrath Rentals (daily candles), May to September 2025.

Coinbase (daily candles), May to September 2025.
Heliocentric Venus 120° Saturn, Mercury 180° Saturn, and Jupiter 90° Saturn in mid-May coincided with a sudden V-bottom in gold futures; with a sideways consolidation in McGrath Rentals; and with a pause in the bullish advance of Coinbase. Later, Mercury at maximum latitude in June produced equally dramatic, but instrument-specific, emotional inflections — bullish surges, reversals, and runaway trends, depending on context. July’s Mercury latitude minimum similarly aligned with abrupt tops or bottoms, again varying across assets but consistent in provoking emotional discontinuity.
Across unrelated markets — gold futures, a construction-rental equity, and a cryptocurrency exchange — the same heliocentric triggers elicited measurable shifts in human behavior. This convergence confirms that planetary-solar mechanics, as articulated by Scafetta, Wilson, and Tattersall, are not abstract correlations but active influences on human sentiment and decision-making.

My focus therefore moves beyond classical astrology, with its symbolic houses and signs, toward a physics-based heliocentric framework. The question is no longer what Mars ‘means’ in Aries, but how concrete planetary alignments exert torque on the Sun, modulate solar emissions, and reverberate through human neurobiology into collective market psychology.

Reference:
On September 21, 2025, during the partial solar eclipse that coincided with the heliocentric opposition of Earth and Saturn, the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Space Research recorded this rare and almost simultaneous double coronal mass ejection (CME) on opposite sides of the Sun, with each colossal filament one million km long—about 70 times the diameter of the Earth. 
See also:

American Christian Zionism and the “Judeo-Christian” Propaganda Machine

American Christian Zionism is a blend of 19th-century dispensational theology, 20th-century doctrinal dissemination, Freemasonic symbolism, post-9/11 anti-Muslim propaganda, and ongoing Jewish Zionist political lobbying. Its overarching aim combines theological prophecy with geopolitical objectives: advancing Israel-centric outcomes, influencing US foreign policy, reshaping public perception of interfaith relations, and reinterpreting religious texts to justify political and military actions in the Middle East.

Cyrus Ingerson Scofield (1843–1921), 
"God’s self-made man," theologian, minister, heavy drinker, charlatan, conman,
and convicted criminal, still celebrated by millions in the US for authoring his best-selling dispensational Scofield Bible,
giving rise to American Christian Zionism. The Rothschilds paying him has been officially debunked—of course.
 
American Christian Zionism traces back to the early 1800s with John Nelson Darby, (1800-1882), an Irish priest who developed Dispensationalism (Darbyism), a theological system combining various religious doctrines into a structured belief that Jesus will return twice: first to rapture Christians to heaven, and second to redeem Jews in Israel after a period of tribulation. Darby’s ideas gained limited early traction until Cyrus Scofield a former convict with no formal degrees who claimed the title “Dr.,” adopted them. With the assistance of a powerful lawyer who was both a Zionist and a member of New York’s Lotus Club, Scofield secured a contract with British Oxford University Press in 1908 to publish his Scofield Bible, which incorporated Darby’s ideas as footnotes, presenting them as part of the biblical text. Oxford University Press distributed approximately one million copies in the early 1900s to embed the doctrine in Christian churches and seminaries. Dispensationalism achieved mass popularity in the 1970s through Hal Lindsey’s The Late, Great Planet Earth, which sold 40 million copies in the US and repackaged Scofield’s teachings.
 
» Christian Zionism is the only religion that has war as one of its principles. « 
 Exposing the Agenda behind the Scofield Bible, 
 
» The false doctrine of Christian Zionism is starting to fall apart. «  
 
» Why America always fights for Israel. «
 
»
Everybody in Congress but me has an AIPAC babysitter. «  
US Congressman Thomas Massie exposes AIPAC’s corrupting influence, 2025.

American Christian Zionism further evolved alongside post-9/11 anti-Muslim propaganda. Following the September 11 attacks, American media were used to portray Muslims as invaders and threats to Christians, spreading fear and disinformation that aligned with Christian Zionist objectives. These narratives reinforced public support for Israel and framed US foreign policy in a manner consistent with theological prophecy.

April 2024, Temple Mount, Al-Quds: Zionist fanatics of US funded Temple Institute ready to 
sacrifice red heifer, imported from Texas, to hasten Armageddon. Ritual calls for demolition of
Al Aqsa Mosque, one of Islam's holiest sites, and construction of Third Temple in its place.

Prominent modern American Christian Zionists, who also identify as Evangelicals or simply Christians—such as 
John Hagee (and others like Billy Graham, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell Sr., Franklin Graham, and Mike Evans)—along with Hagee’s organization, Christians United for Israel, often have ties to Freemasonry, which is symbolically centered on Solomon’s Temple. Many Freemasons seek “secret forbidden knowledge” believed to have been buried beneath the Temple Mount. Since the al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock currently occupy the site, Christian Zionists and affiliated Freemasons aim to remove these structures to construct a third temple—a goal not mandated by the Bible, representing a self-fulfilling prophecy. This objective also motivates efforts to displace Muslims who guard the Temple Mount.
 
'Greater Israel' extremist, US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, 2025.
 
The ideology also intersects with political influence in the United States. The concept of a “Judeo-Christian "tradition", "shared values", and "civilization is a recent Zionist-invented propaganda scheme used to claim ownership of America’s Christian religious heritage, to pervert it, and to justify US foreign policy and the transfer of billions of taxpayer dollars in support of Israel. US presidents and presidential candidates are often characterized as “Zionist puppets” acting to fulfill Christian Zionist prophecies. Christian Zionist narratives have been invoked to justify military action in Israel and the Palestinian territories, including through reinterpretation of Old Testament scripture. Israeli leaders compare Palestinians to the biblical Amaleks, ancient enemies of the Hebrews whom God instructed King Saul to destroy, including their children. While Palestinians are not historically Amaleks, this reinterpretation functions as religious and political justification for contemporary Israeli violence, assasinations, war, and genocide. 
 
 
American Christian Zionism also connects to the broader history of religious and political dynamics in Jerusalem. Since Saladin's conquest of the Crusader states in 1187, Muslim families have served as custodians of the Church of the Holy Sepulchre and have held its keys, a nearly thousand-year tradition that exemplifies longstanding interfaith protection and counters modern portrayals of Christian-Muslim conflict. Especially since 1948, American Christian Zionism, however, frames Jerusalem and the Temple Mount through the Israeli Zionist lens of prophecy, Freemasonic symbolism, and geopolitical strategy, portraying Muslims as absolute evil and as enemies of ‘Judeo-Christian values and civilization’ at large.

The Gaza Strip, which is only 365 square kilometers in size, was forcefully packed with over 2 million Palestinians. Currently, Israeli forces are demolishing the homes of Gazans in preparation for building concentration camps. It is hard to imagine such hasty actions could still occur today—actions even more severe than those of the German Nazis. The territory of Palestine will be entirely consumed, and this nation will slowly perish. Israel has not only a military edge but also full US backing. — Xinhua News Agency, September 15, 2025.