Time ▾ Price ▴ Research: 12/01/2024

Tuesday, December 3, 2024

South Korea: Chronicles of a US Vassal State

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law on December 3, 2024. Lawmakers voted against the move, and protesters gathered outside parliament. Yoon framed the declaration as "rooting out pro-North Korean forces", but it was strongly opposed by the parliamentary speaker and even Han Dong-hoon, leader of Yoon's own party, who has clashed with the president over recent scandals. Self-coup, martial law, dictatorship? Megalomania, nut-case, loony bin? Will we hear cries from the US State Department about human rights and democracy, or will they remain silent since South Korea (ROK) is the best-controlled and most diligent US vassal state in Asia, still occupied since 1945 by more than 24,000 US combat troops?

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's approval rating

fell to a mere 19% just days before he declared martial law.

Maximum dishonor, submission, and degeneracy:
Yoon sings 'American Pie' at Biden's April 2023 state dinner.

» Martial law, to root out pro-North Korean forces. «

To better understand the realities in South Korea, the following list provides a brief overview of the political turmoil and challenges faced by South Korean presidents under US occupation since 1948:

1. Lee Seung-man (1948-1960) – The first president of South Korea; overthrown after student protests and widespread unrest.
2. Yun Bo-seon (1960-1962) – The second president, whose term ended after a military coup.
3. Park Chung-hee (1962-1979) – Seized power in a 1961 coup and ruled until his assassination in 1979.
4. Choi Kyu-hah (1979-1980) – Served as president after Park’s death but was deposed by a military coup led by Chun Doo-hwan.
5. Chun Doo-hwan (1981-1988) – Came to power through a coup, later sentenced to death (commuted to life imprisonment) after his presidency.
6. Roh Tae-woo (1988-1993) – Former military leader and Chun’s ally, later convicted of corruption and sentenced to prison.
7. Kim Young-sam (1993-1998) – The first civilian president in decades, he pushed for democratic reforms and prosecuted former military leaders.
8. Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003) – A former pro-democracy activist who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his policy towards North Korea; was imprisoned and sentenced to death before becoming president.
9. Roh Moo-hyun (2003-2008) – Impeached (later reinstated), faced corruption investigations after his presidency, and tragically committed suicide.
10. Lee Myung-bak (2008-2013) – Former businessman, arrested after his presidency on corruption charges and is serving a sentence.
11. Park Geun-hye (2013-2016) – South Korea's first female president, impeached over a corruption scandal, and sentenced to 24 years in prison.
12. Moon Jae-in (2017-2022) – Elected after Park’s impeachment, a former human rights lawyer who focused on engagement with North Korea and domestic reforms.
13. Yoon Suk-yeol (2022-present) – Ran on a hardline stance on North Korea, accuses the main opposition party of sympathizing with North Korea and declared martial law on December 3, 2024, "to root out pro-North Korean forces".

» He can’t even do martial law properly.«

Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Monday, December 2, 2024

AAII Bull-Bear Spread Signals Bullish Outlook | Duality Research

Despite the S&P 500 at all-time highs, we have just seen the largest 2-week shift in investor sentiment in over a year, according to the latest AAII Survey.

AAII bears outnumber bulls for the first time since late April.

All that happened after that was a five month win streak.

Ryan Detrick, November 28, 2024.

Bearish sentiment has surged to its highest level in more than a year, while bullish sentiment has dropped to its lowest point since April. As a result, the bull-bear spread has turned negative. For context, the average AAII bull-bear spread over the past 12 months has been +18.8%.

Duality Research, November 28, 2024.

S&P 500 Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2022. See also [HERE], [HERE], [HERE], and [HERE].

Sunday, December 1, 2024

Optimism Is Off the Charts – The Great Piling In | Sven Henrich

Everybody is long. Everything is vertical.

Reference:
Sven Henrich (December 01, 2024) - NorthCast Market Update: The Great Piling In. (video)

NAAIM at 98.9

The Status of the TOY Barometer at the End of November | Wayne Whaley

The way equity markets move from one year to the next often provides insight into what to expect in the following year. One of my favorite Turn of the Year (TOY) barometers is Toy2mt, which tracks the S&P 500's performance over the two months from November 19 to January 19. Historically, when the S&P shows a gain of 3% or more during this period, it has performed very well over the following 12 months (36-2 record, with an average return of 16.6%). I have found that the November component of Toy2mt (November 19-30) serves as an early indicator of what may lie ahead for Toy2mt and the year to come.

As of November 30, six of the first seven Toy2mt days were positive, and the November segment of Toy2mt stands at +1.98%, with bulls targeting a +3% Toy2mt return. Below is the performance for the following 12 months (December-November) since 1950, based on three different levels of the November 19-30 segment of Toy2mt.

» If I could make only one trade per year based on one indicator, it would be Toy2mt. «

[HERE], and [HERE]

When the November 19-30 period registers +1.5% or higher, it has typically been a positive signal for the following 12 months (December-November). In 2024, the November 19-30 period came in at +1.98%. It’s still early, and we will learn much more over the next seven weeks.

Wayne Whaley, November 30, 2024.

Cosmic Cluster Days | December 2024

Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. However, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows—also within the 'noise channel'—may correlate with or coincide with market movements and reversals.