Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025 | Sergey Tarassov

 » DJIA correction begun, and the 41 Month Kitchin Cycle suggests a decline until the end of 2025. «  
 —  Sergey Tarassov, August 5, 2024.

 

» Multiyear High in the DJIA between June and October 2024, i.e. sometime
between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle.  «    
 —  Sergey Tarassov, June 25, 2024.

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (August 5, 2024) - Tune Up 41 Month Kitchin Cycle for DJIA. (video)
Sergey Tarassov (June 25, 2024) - Review of Forecasts for DJIA, Gold, Bitcoin, IOC and Mexican Peso. (video)

 2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table: » Major Panic - CRASH! «

 

Panic Cycles Week July 15 - 19 & Week September 9 - 13.

—  Martin Armstrong, June 14, 2024.

 

A Sophisticated Look at Pivot Points | John Seckinger

The following is based on an SFO article published in December 2004 by John Seckinger, titled, "Take a Two-Dimensional Approach: A Sophisticated Look at Pivot Points." He offers these tips:

■    Don't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, consider them oversold (S) and 

       overbought (R) areas.
■    S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they 

       lend more significance to the area.
■    If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily

       S1 and daily R1 the next day.
■    In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, 

       look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
■    A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
■    The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
■    Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) 

       and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
■    Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
■    Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1,  respectively.

 

   —  John Seckinger

Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Floor Trader Pivot Points for the Week of September 9, 2024:

 

 » There often will be confluences when comparing the weekly and daily S2 to R2 levels 

that increase this area’s significance. «   —  John Seckinger

Here are the formulas to calculate daily, weekly, monthly, etc. Floor Trader Pivot Points:

Quoted from:
Thomas Bulkowski (September 7, 2024) - Swing Traders: Pivot Points.

 

DJIA Index (daily bars) — Weekly Pivot Levels (September 3 - 6) & Daily Pivot Levels (Friday, September 6).

See also:
John Seckinger (2004) - Take a Two-Dimensional Approach: A Sophisticated Look at Pivot Points.

Franklin O. Ochoa Jr. (2010) - Secrets of a Pivot Boss - Revealing Proven Methods for Profiting in the Market.

MyPivots.com (2024) - Daily and Weekly Trading Metrics for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Cash Index.

S&P 500 September 2024 Seasonality | Jeff Hirsch

The Bull Market is still intact but wait for a fatter pitch. Ramped of election uncertainty, extended valuations, some big earning misses and a few troubling economic data points helped the worst month of the year deliver an opening blow. Fund managers tend to sell under-performers, restructure portfolios and window dress ahead of the end of Q3. Also a tough month in election years. 

 

 Sep 03 (Tue) = High | Sep 09-10 (Mon-Tue) = Low | Sep 12 (Thu) = High 

Sep 18 (Wed) = Low | Sep 20 (Fri) = High | Sep 26-27 (Thu-Fri) = Low

Jeffrey A. Hirsch @ Twitter/X - Feb 28, 2024 

[STA Aggregate Cycle = Combo Of All Years] 

There have been some nasty selloffs near month-end over the years. The week after [September 20, 2024 (Fri)] Quadruple Witching has been brutal, S&P 500 down 27 of the last 34, averaging a loss of 1.06%. In 2022, DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all dropped 4% or more.

September Weakness & October-phobia loom large. Bullish election forces at play, but September-October are the worst months of the election years. Lack of clarity about economy, election and Fed’s next move. Expect chop and sideways action over next several weeks w/ a likely test of the lows. This should set up the Q4/post-election rally. So be patient and be ready for the fatter pitch later in Q3 or early Q4.

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 5, 2024) - Tough September Off to Rough Start.  

See also:
Martin Armstrong (July 14, 2024) - Panic Cycles Week July 15 - 19 & Week September 9 - 13.
Martin Biber (August 29, 2024) - Decoding S&P 500 Seasonality.
Sergey Tarassov (June 26, 2024) - 2024 DJIA vs 40 & 42 Month Cycles.
TPR (August 28, 2024) - Cosmic Cluster Days - September 2024.

S&P 500 Slide Until September 18th & Potential Rally to 25th | Allen Reminick

As of September 4 (Wed), lower prices on the S&P 500 are expected. The market should decline further until September 12 (Thu), potentially hitting another low around September 18 (Wed). A rally is anticipated from then until September 23 (Mon) or 25 (Wed).

Historical patterns from 2000 and 2007 suggest similar market behavior, including a likely 50 basis point Fed rate cut around September 18-19 (Wed-Thu), which might initially seem bullish but could be bearish in the long run. A 10% decline might occur before the election, with a possible bounce post-election.

Reference:
Allen Reminick (September 5, 2024) - S&P Down Until 9-18-24. (video)

On Range Expansion, Monkey Hammers, FAFO & NFP Weeks | Stacey Burke

» When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal 

that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion. «     

 —  Paul Tudor Jones 

  

» FAFO [F*** Around and Find Out] is when you try and scalp the high or scalp the low - or jump in because a market is moving - because something is up high or down low. If other time frame traders are driving the move ... be careful - that's called FAFO and is not a specific 90/10 easy money making trading setup. That's called gambling.

If the train has left the station ... find your next best candidate for your session that was on your watchlist. How is price behaving in the timing window - at the levels? No 90/10 easy money best playbook trading setup that you can see that is from your rinse and repeat templates? Then shut it down and walk away - or do what the experts do and hunt for science projects.

Behaviour of the trader - mindset of the trader - best 90/10 easy money playbook trading setup - timings - levels - behaviour of price - execution skills of the trader - behaviour of the trader after the trade is completed. Rin$e and repeat means exactly that ... same setups over and over and over again . «     — Stacey Burke

 

» It's a Non-Farm Payrolls week - don't be surprised to see a four-day template. The day count doesn't change. Wednesday was the reset day, and now we are in the backside of the week. We might get a monkey hammer on Thursday, and Friday setting up a Non-Farm Payrolls bounce trade. «     — Stacey Burke

 

 

Fed Chair Powell's promise to lower rates may trigger market reversals (HERE & HERE & HERE).

See also:

Stacey Burke (September 3, 2024) - Trading Beginning of Month & after Long Holiday Weekend. (video)

Putin Aligns with Biden's Support for Kamala Harris as Next U.S. President

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the participants of the 9th Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on Wednesday: "I said that if we could name a favorite candidate, it was Joe Biden."

 

» Her laugh is so fascinating. «

 

» It means that everything is good. «

"But now Biden is not participating in the election campaign, and he recommended to all his allies to support Ms. Harris. So this is what we are going to do. Well, her laugh is so fascinating. It means that everything is good. In the end, it will be the choice of the U.S. people, and we will respect this choice."

 

Reference:
Kremlin News (September 5, 2024) - Plenary session of the 9th Eastern Economic Forum.  

» In the U.S. the media is the enemy of the people. «

 

See also:
Martin Armstrong (August 30, 2024) - The U.S. Is Now Ready for Violence, Civil War & Secession.

S&P 500 Uptrend May Extend to 5,800 Into Equinox | Robert Miner

Daily S&P 500 data from the July high shows an an A-B-C correction into August 13. Since then, the S&P 500 has continued upward and sideways, reaching a new high last Friday, August 30. With daily momentum showing a bull reversal, the S&P 500 is expected to remain bullish for the next few days and likely exceed the July high within the next week or two. The daily closing level of 5,798 is a key benchmark to watch.

 

 

Key dates to monitor include the week ending September 20, which aligns with the next Fed announcement and the fall equinox on September 22. Historically, reversals often occur near the fall equinox. If the S&P 500 remains sideways or rises into this period, it could signal the completion of the current upward trend and the onset of a counter-trend move.

 

For the next three weeks, the S&P 500 should target the range of 5,689 to 5,783 based on weekly closing data. Monitoring this range is essential. A weekly close within this range by the week ending September 20 may indicate a potential weekly high. Weekly momentum indicators suggest that the S&P 500 is likely to continue its upward trend for another two to three weeks.

 

Reference:
Robert Miner (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500, Gold and Bitcoin Updates. (video)

 

See also:

Robert Miner (April 26, 2024) - The S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle.

S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October | Wayne Whaley

For this study, summer is defined as the three months from June to August. Historically, the S&P 500 index tends to show modest performance during the summer, with an average gain of 1.43% since 1950 over these three months. In 2024, however, the S&P 500 achieved an impressive 7.03% gain during the summer, with individual gains of 3.5% in June, 1.1% in July, and 2.3% in August.

 

The weakest seasonal period of the year historically occurs in the second half of September. However, strong summers often push much of the traditional September weakness into October, specifically from October 18th to October 28th. During this period in the years with a summer gain of over 5%, the S&P 500 has averaged a loss of 2.53%, with a performance record of 4 gains and 19 losses.

This period is followed by one of the strongest periods of the year, from October 28th to November 5th. In years with a summer gain of over 5%, this timeframe has averaged a gain of 2.61%, with a performance record of 21 gains and 1 loss.

Reference:
Wayne Whaley (August 31, 2024) - Five Percent Summers. 

 

4-Year Presidential Election Cycle 1949-2020 vs 2021-2024

— Jeff Hirsch, August 19, 2024

The US Is Now Ready for Violence, Civil War & Secession | Martin Armstrong

This will probably be the last election in the United States, for we will most likely split into three regional governments. [...] There is no question that post-election violence will be extreme. Whenever you have this winner-takes-all system and political corruption unfolds, the LEFT is not seeking to govern the nation; they are seeking to oppress all opponents.

 

 » The United States will most likely split into three regional governments. «

 

[...] Democracies are supposed to be where people have the right to vote. The Democrats were denied the right even to select their candidate. This is tyranny, for Kamala was merely installed. [...] Typically, governments go into civil wars when there is a conflict that is culturally/ethnically, religiously, or racially driven, and we are now checking that box and just waiting for the election. We will face a rigged and contested election that neither side will accept. When there is no confidence in the government anymore, the ONLY resolution is always violence. History confirms this prognostication. How can there be such fantastic polls for Kamala, who never won a single delegate during the 2020 primary, and we look at the only real independent poll organization that shows confidence in Congress down to 7%?

 » No question that post-election violence will be extreme. «

It does not matter who wins. This election will NEVER be accepted, and it certainly will NOT unify the country. The Democratic Convention threw Trump’s name out 329 times. It was just a hate fest. That will ensure violence. The LEFT will never accept a Trump victory – NO WAY!!!!! There is no belief that this election will be free and fair. The United States has declined into this dangerous characteristic that warns the country is far too divided to stand. I am concerned that the dollar may decline FOR THIS REASON. I want to think that reform is possible. Unfortunately, history tells us that when an empire, nation, country, or city-state is this divided, REFORM becomes possible only AFTER violence.  

 

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armstrong (August 30, 2024) - Can the Dollar Survive a Civil War?

 

See also:
The Alex Jones Show (August 30, 2024) - Martin Armstrong Warns 2024 Will
Probably Be The Last U.S. Election. (video)

 

» The most important historical events occur in the 3-year period around sunspot maximums. «
Alexander Chizhevsky — 1924

» The most important European revolutions of the XIX and XX century overlapped closely
with the sunspot maximums. «
Mikhail Gorbanev — 2016

Migrant Gangs Taking Control of US Cities. — August 30, 2024

See also:
Martin A. Armstrong (June 6, 2024) - The Five Stages of the Revolutionary Cycle.

L. David Linsky (October 24, 2023) - War and Regime Change soon in the US.

Mikhail Gorbanev (2016) - Solar Activity and Economic Recessions.

 Serge Bernard (2016) - From Conquest to Affluence to Collapse: The 250 Year Empire Life Cycle.

Maurice Cotterell (2001) - Sunspots and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations.

Alexander Chizhevsky (1924) - Physical Factors of the Historical Process.

Re-Accumulation & Re-Distribution Range Patterns | Richard D. Wyckoff

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars - May 23-August 30, 2024) — 40 Week Hurst Cycle Trough on August 5th.

Martin Armstrong's DJIA Aggregate topping Week August 26-30 and Panic Cycle Week September 9 - 13.  

US Stock Market Seasonality negative into late October (Jeff Hirsch & Martin Biber).

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour bars - August 15-30, 2024) — Distribution or Re-Accumulation:

Distribution Schematic #3 in Phase C or Re-Accumulation with Spring Action in Phase D ?

 

   The 4 Phases of Richard D. Wyckoff's Market Cycle:

(1.) Accumulation, (2.) Mark Up, (3.) Distribution, (4.) Mark Down.

The Re-Accumulation process is exactly identical to the Accumulation process. The only difference between the two is the way the structure begins to develop. While the Accumulation range begins by stopping a bearish movement, the Re-Accumulation range begins after the stop of an upward movement. To put it another way: A Re-Accumulation occurs during a longer-term up trend, which will continue in the future. The main street is finally on the right side as well. Inside a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation schematic, buyers are closing parts of their long positions and sellers are joining the market. With the incoming selling positions, market makers can fill new long positions again.

 4 Types of Re-Accumulation Ranges a.k.a. Continuation Patterns a.k.a. Trend Continuation:

(1.) Re-Accumulation after a Decline.
(2.) Re-Accumulation with Spring Action.
(3.) Re-Accumulation after a Shakeout.
(4.) Re-Accumulation with an Uprising Structure.

The 4 Re-Distribution types are simply the opposite (lower 4 schematics):

(1.) Re-Distribution after a Rally.
(2.) Re-Distribution with Spring Action.
(3.) Re-Distribution after a Shakeout.
(4.) Re-Distribution with a Declining Structure.

 Examples of different types of Re-Accumulation Patterns in the Apple (AAPL) Weekly Chart.

 

The events and phases are still the same (see the Accumulation and Distributions Schematics - the last 4 charts). Only the beginning of the Re-Accumulation cycle is different and equals the start of a distribution cycle. Take a look at the Wyckoff distribution schematics below for the occurring events. The main events that differ from an accumulation or distribution cycle are the occurrences of the Creek. The Creek is a small trend over time and can equal a smaller consolidation. The Creek builds liquidity on both sides of the market and misleads market participants. The Jump Across the Creek (JAC) is the event that causes the SoS. The Jump Across the Creek does take out previous resistance lines with a strong up move. The Jump Across the Creek can also occur inside the trading range of the accumulation. The Creek can be the horizontal resistance defined by Phases A and B or an internal trend line that formed inside Phase B.

• After the spring and test events, there is a bullish price move with momentum. This is called the Jump Across the Creek. Price continues with a bullish Phase E.
• Usually, any shakeout and/or decline action before Re-Accumulation will have a local smaller distribution pattern (cause and effect).
• The Initial Shakeout/Decline is less pronounced during Re-Accumulation than before Accumulation.
• Volume: Re-Accumulation usually has less supply than Accumulation.
• The maximum swing of trading range (highest to lowest point): Re-Accumulation trading range is usually tighter compared with an Accumulation trading range.

 (1.) Re-Accumulation after a Decline

 

• Weakest among the Re-Accumulation types.
• Decline usually starts from a small local distribution pattern.
• It can have different variations of the trading range (see the structure of the next 3 formations).

(2.) Re-Accumulation with Spring Action

 

• Flat or sloping down formation.
• It can potentially have a few lower lows with a spring being the lowest point of the trading range.
• Leading stocks can exhibit short-term weakness after strength in this formation.

(3.) Re-Accumulation after a Shakeout

 

• Absorption of supply happens in the trading range without violation of support.
• Usually and depending on a position of the market, this pattern exhibits strength.

(4.) Re-Accumulation with an Uprising Structure 

 

• Re-Accumulation with an Uprise is the strongest Re-Accumulation type.
• This structure will exhibit higher highs / higher lows.
• Sometimes can be confused with a topping trading range (Distribution).

 

 

 Accumulation Schematic #1: Phases A and B.

 Accumulation Schematic #1: Phases C, D and E.

 

 Distribution Schematic #3: Phases A, B, C, D and E = the Inversion of the  Accumulation Schematic #1

 

The Re-Distribution occurs inside a markdown cycle and stops a down-trend for a longer period. After bigger price moves even Main Street joins the trend. Now it is time for the market makers to bring the price into a consolidation phase to scare sellers and bring in new buyers. That ensures new liquidity for the institution’s to place new short orders. The start of a Wyckoff Re-Distribution schematic is the same as an Accumulation cycle. A Creek inside the trading range creates liquidity on both sides of the market, which gets taken by a UTAD. Many people will see this as a break-out to join bullish price action, but don’t get fooled. With a Jump across the Creek, the price is not only returning into the trading range but going to continue the downtrend from before.

 

 

  Distribution Schematic #2: Phases A and B.

 

 Distribution Schematic #2: Phases C, D and E.

 

Many believe that simply labeling the events is sufficient for detecting Wyckoff cycles. Don't forget that a supposed Distribution can become a Re-Accumulation or an Accumulation a Re-Distribution. Therefore, it is essential to presuppose a fundamental market analysis and confirm a Wyckoff cycle with COT data, Seasonality, or other longer-term confirmations. Don't make the mistake of looking for Accumulations and Distributions in lower time frames. It is easy to draw a supposed accumulation on a 5-minute chart, but a real Accumulation takes place in higher time frames. Since a Wyckoff cycle takes time to unfold, wait for the events to occur and be fully validated. Otherwise, one quickly get s distracted by the noise within the actual moves and makes bad trading decisions in the worst case. 

 

Bruce Fraser (January 30, 2020) - Distribution or Re-Accumulation? 

Reference:

Richard D. Wyckoff (December 21, 2022) - Accumulation & Distribution Schematics.

Jim Forte (1994) - Anatomy of a Trading Range.
Hank Pruden & Max Lichtenstein (2006) - Wyckoff Schematics - Visual Templates for Market Timing Decisions.

WyckoffAnalytics.com (2022) - Richard D. Wyckoff - His Method and Story.

Matt LeTrader (2022) - Composite Man: A Journey through the Trading Range. 

Roman Bogomazov (2022) - Wyckoff Method Trading and Education.