Sunday, April 26, 2026

Mein AI: Palantir's Karp Wants Us to Know He Has Big Plans | Tarik Cyril Amar

Once the Nazis were done, quite a few people started scratching their heads. Obviously one thing to baffle any sane observer was the sheer enormity of their crimes, accomplished, moreover, with frenetic, really start-up'ish drive and ambition in a mere twelve years: World War? Check. Genocides? Check. Bad hairstyle? Check.
 
» Subversion, surveillance, and violence. «
 
But then, there also was another puzzle: How could their self-besotted visionary-in-chief, hobby philosopher (with a bent to sinister German stuff), and obviously mentally less than stable wanna-be-genius of a leader have gotten a whole nation of, apparently, reasonably educated people to go along? And not just go along, but go along to the very, very bitter end.
 
That question was all the more disturbing in view of the fact that Adolf Hitler had not been shy about displaying his insanity and extremely bad intentions well before conservative elites installed him in power in 1933. Hitler’s book-length – indeed two-volume – manifesto of German fascism (AKA Nazism) Mein Kampf was published in 1925 and 1926, sold more than 12 million copies and was translated into over a dozen languages.
 
 
And those ready to brave its pathological me-me-me-and-HISTORY narcissism, daft hodge-podge ramblings about the better and the lesser parts of humanity, and brownshirt-bro bombast to read it through could not say that the future Leader had been concealing where he intended to lead Germany and, really, the world. 
  
Indeed, Hitler’s manifesto could have served as an all-alarms-howling, bright-red-lights-flashing-everywhere, get-the-strait-jackets-now warning. The main points of Nazi Germany’s evil to come were all there, laid out in general but with stunning honesty: empire building with industrial-strength brutality, extermination or at least slavery for those considered inferior and superfluous, and last but not least, eternal primacy of one master country – primacy, as we’d say now in American English – to be achieved and maintained by all and any means, because that country – in Hitler’s case Germany – was defined as superior to all others by definition and called upon to lead the world, forever.
 
  » Technofascism pure! «
Karp's Palantir Manifesto; April 18, 2025.
Palantir's 'Technological Republic' is the Mein Kampf of the
digital era. It argues for militarism, thinly-veiled racism and
letting elites run wild. It's a sick man's vision of the future.
 
 
It is one of those bitter ironies of history that Alex Karp, CEO of the very peculiar software company Palantir, who regularly refers to his Jewish family background and what it would have meant for him under the Nazis, has recently released a manifesto that also should serve as a warning to the rest of us. A summary of his longer tract "The Technological Republic" (co-authored with Nicholas Zamiska) – the second volume in the age of mass distraction and attention deficit, so to speak – the twenty-two point X post has provoked a great backlash.
 
Cas Mudde, well-known expert on the far right, has called it "Technofascism pure!(with an exclamation mark in the original). Yanis Varoufakis feels that "if Evil could tweet, this is what it would!(with another exclamation mark). Mudde has also called for a full stop to all cooperation with Palantir by European companies and government agencies. Even Eliot Higgins, founder of Cold-War re-enactment tool and Western information war front Bellingcat has been moved to – mild irony. How daring! (My exclamation mark.)
 
And these are not over-reactions. Karp's Palantir Manifesto really is an astonishingly open self-exploration of a very sick mind’s vision for the future of humanity, arguing, in effect, for an open-ended AI arms race (a big Kaching! for Palantir, by the way), bringing back German and Japanese militarism, racism masked as realism about cultural backwardness (as it happens, also a Nazi "Kulturträger" move, which Karp should have heard about in his German years), and, last but not least, letting our brilliant billionaires and new elites in general off the hook when they mess up, such as with on private islands having fun with a serial child rapist - that sort of thing. How unselfish.
 
Pal
estinian journalists from Gaza discuss the US tech giant Palantir and its role
in the Gaza genocide and its £240m contract in the UK's National Health Service.

It is also painfully, criminally badly written – plus ça change… – in a style that combines mock-Oswald Spengler Götterdämmerung kitsch ("The decadence of a culture or civilization, and indeed its ruling class, will be forgiven only if that culture is capable of delivering economic growth and security for the public.") with sheer non-sequitur inanity (Why, again, can’t we have economic growth and security without any of that "ruling class decadence"?).
 
There are passages that read like young Jordan Peterson – age 15 and on too much diet coke – trying to be deep, really, really deep for the first time: "Those who look to the political arena to nourish their soul and sense of self, who rely too heavily on their internal life finding expression in people they may never meet, will be left disappointed" and "our society has grown too eager to hasten, and is often gleeful at, the demise of its enemies. The vanquishing of an opponent is a moment to pause, not rejoice."
 
The USDA just handed Palantir a $300 million no-bid contract
to consolidate American farm data into a single platform
.
 
After the inimitable practice of America's war idiot-in-chief Don Tzu of Hormuz, Alex and his Palantir friends are giving us their I Ching of the tech dim. Lucky us: So much American primacy and then we get Silicon Valley meta, too!
 
» Palantir never rests. «
 
Yet farcical as Karp's manifesto is, it is, of course, a deadly serious matter. After all, we live in a world where Palantir has already risen to far too much power. Founded as a CIA spin-off after the oh-so-unforeseen terror attacks of 11 September 2001, backed by totally normal Epstein-buddy, "transhumanist," and antichrist-obsessive Peter Thiel, Palantir has grown into a bloody monster, combining, in true fascist style, the logics of efficiency and extermination with its software tools, such as Gotham, Foundry, or Maven, while mass-spying on everything and everyone it can, and systematically embedding itself in international business and government to become – or appear – indispensable.
 

Palantir – named after all-seeing magic stones used by the villains of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings (again: don’t say you weren’t warned) has already produced so much evil that a short worst-of-the-worst sample must do: The company has officially denied being involved in genocidal Israel’s use of AI to mass-murder Palestinians faster. Curiously enough, Alex Karp has, however, smirkingly admitted the fact in public. Regarding the deployment of Palantir’s targeting software deployment of Palantir's targeting software in the American-Israeli war of aggression against Iran, the company is not even denying it.
The real shift is about control. Once your money becomes fully digital, it's no longer just something you hold—it's something that can be tracked, restricted, conditioned, and limited. Then consider where this leads: carbon tracking, usage caps, and allowances tied to behavior—fuel, energy, travel, consumption. At that point, it's no longer about how much money you have. It's about what you're permitted to do with it.
The biometric prison will be GLOBAL. There are MANY commercials in Russia, just like this one, promoting the biometric track/trace digital ID, digital ruble, UN Agenda 2030/WEF-identical, tech-totalitarian, total-surveillance prison system. 
But Palantir never rests. While deeply and proudly involved in genocidal slaughters and imperialist warfare, it also subverts peacetime societies pervasively. In Britain, for instance, a backlash has set in against the state’s reckless handing over of police powers and extremely sensitive data (for instance, in the spheres of finance and health) to the American CIA-offshoot gone rogue. In Germany, Palantir systems are used for policing in at least three of its federal states, Hesse, North-Rhine Westphalia, and Bavaria. In the US, Palantir has, of course, already so deeply invaded the state that it does not only help it fight its criminal wars abroad but also, for instane, terrorize its migrants and some non-migrants, too, at home.
Indeed, Palantir is so evil that even its own employees are beginning to wonder if they might, actually, be the bad guys. Hint: Yes, you are. And we all know.
 
For the rest of us, that is, almost all of us on this planet afflicted by Silicon Valley: It’s time to believe them when they tell us to our faces that they are coming for us. Palantir is a clear and present danger to humanity. Its CEO is an extremely dangerous maniac, its mission is subversion, surveillance, and violence, and its only Achilles Heel may be that old nemesis of the wicked: hubris. The sort of hubris that makes you display your perverse mind and announce your horrible aims in a manifesto we should all call Alex Karp's Mein AI.
 
Quoted from:
Tarik Cyril Amar (b. 1969) is a German historian and geopolitical analyst focused on twentieth-century Eastern Europe, especially Soviet, Russian, and Ukrainian history. He studied at Oxford, the London School of Economics, and earned a PhD from Princeton (2006). He has taught at Columbia University, led the Center for Urban History in Lviv, and is now Associate Professor at Koç University in Istanbul. 

Thursday, April 23, 2026

Suicide by a Thousand Cuts: EU Migrant Population Hits Record 64.2 Million

Immigration to the European Union has surged to historically high levels, reaching a total of 64.2 million foreign-born residents in 2025. According to the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, which utilizes Eurostat and UNHCR data, this represents a dramatic climb from the 40 million recorded in 2010 and a year-over-year increase of 1.6 million people. 
 
"Agents of Deveolpment," preparing for a crossing from the French coast toward the UK. 

To put this in perspective, approximately one in seven people residing in the European Union was born in a country other than the one where they currently live. The growth trend over the last 15 years highlights a significant shift in the bloc's composition.
 
French President Emmanuel Macron and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis seated in Athens’ ancient
Roman Agora ruins during a public dialogue in April 2026, captioned "The Europeans." An image perfectly
emblematic of the EU: Weak men in fancy suits amidst the ruins of a civilization built by saner minds. 
 
 
Number of individuals born outside their country of residence
(including those with unknown birth country) in the EU, 2010-2025
 (excluding Portugal due to missing data).

 Number of immigrants in EU countries with the largest immigrant populations, 2010-2025.
 
Number of individuals born outside their country of residence in the EU, 2010-2025.
 
In 2010, the foreign-born population represented approximately 9% of the total EU population; by 2025, that share has risen to 14.25%. This presence is characterized by heavy geographic concentration, particularly in nations like Germany, where nearly 18 million foreign-born residents out of a total population of 83.6 million bring the local percentage to approximately 21.5%. 

Population Division, UN DESA, New York, March 21, 2000.
 
Resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly on the "Global Compact for Safe, 
Orderly and Regular Migration," A/RES/73/195, Marrakesh, Morocco, December 19, 2018
 
» 
The 2030 Agenda recognizes... migrant women, men and children... as agents of development. « 
 
This shift also carries a distinct demographic impact. While the median age of the broader EU population reached 44.9 years in early 2025, 72% of the foreign-born group in Germany is of working age, contrasting sharply with the aging domestic profile of the bloc. These figures demonstrate that migration is not just increasing in volume, but is fundamentally reshaping the labor and age structures of the Union's largest economies.

Immigrant Population in 2025 by EU country (% of total population).
 
The Geography of Concentration
A small number of countries handle the vast majority of arrivals and residency stocks. Germany continues to be the primary destination, hosting nearly 18 million foreign-born residents, of whom 72% are of working age. Meanwhile, Spain has emerged as the leader in recent growth, adding 700,000 residents in a single year—roughly one-third of the entire EU’s annual increase—bringing its total foreign-born population to 9.5 million (20%). While Germany and Spain account for nearly half of the total increase, smaller states like Luxembourg, Malta, and Cyprus are experiencing the most significant pressure relative to their population size.
 
Ranking of EU27 countries by total migrant inflows, 2024.
 
Ranking of EU27 countries by total migrant inflows per 1,000 inhabitants, 2024. 
 
Asylum applications follow a similarly concentrated pattern, with four nations receiving nearly three-quarters of all claims. Spain leads the applications with 141,000, drawing heavily from Latin America, followed by Italy with 127,000 and France with 116,000, both of which exhibit diverse source-country patterns. Germany received 113,000 applications, primarily from conflict-driven regions such as Syria and Afghanistan. While larger nations take the most applications in absolute terms, smaller countries often bear a greater burden relative to their population.
 
Countries of Origin of First-Instance Asylum Applicants, 2025.

 
Socio-Economic Strain and the Housing Crisis
As migration reaches these new peaks, official data points to a severe mounting strain on living conditions across the bloc. In 2024, 8.2% of EU residents were considered overburdened by housing costs, spending at least 40% of their disposable income on rent or mortgages. The crisis is particularly acute for the youth, with nearly one in ten people aged 15 to 29 facing a similar housing cost burden. Furthermore, 16.9% of the population now lives in overcrowded households, and 9.2% are unable to adequately heat their homes.
Refugees as a Share of Total Population, 2025: Germany hosts the most (≈2.7 million), more than double Poland (≈1 million), followed by France (≈751,000), Spain (≈471,000), and Czechia (≈381,000). Italy (≈314,000), Austria (≈281,000), and the Netherlands (≈263,000), while most others have fewer than 200,000. Totals include refugees, people in refugee-like situations, and displaced persons from Ukraine under temporary protection.
Recently, European Council President Antonio Costa has emphasized that housing affordability is now "at the core of people's disillusionment with democratic institutions." Spot on, Mr. Costa... these economic pressures, combined with concerns over public security, services, and the cost of living, have fueled the rise in anti-immigration sentiment across EU member states and the UK. While the EU allocates approximately 2% of its seven-year budget to migration and "border management," the bulk of the financial and social costs are currently borne by individual national governments. 
 
billion—more than twice the German federal government's total annual budget.
 
Now just imagine—due to a prolonged general economic crisis and decline—what will happen once national administrations are no longer able to milk their native populations for hundreds of billions of euros and can no longer redistribute enough protection money to millions of formerly pampered, predominantly male, military-age "refugees" and "migrants" from dozens of Muslim countries destroyed by U$raHell, UK, NATO, and the very EU… they may suddenly start helping themselves otherwise.
 
Most urgent EU priority instead: Drone production and another €90 billion "loan" for Ukraine.

Geopolitical Tensions and 'Defense' Realities
The official EU migration narrative is now inextricably linked to Russia... Russia's support of Syrian "dictator" Assad, the Libyan "Gaddafi regime," and "Putin's unprovoked aggression" against Ukraine. The EU currently hosts approximately 4.35 million Ukrainian nationals, with Germany serving as the largest host at over one million people. However, the political climate is shifting as domestic hospitality begins to wane. Berlin and Kyiv are now coordinating efforts to facilitate the return of military-age Ukrainian men to their home country's meat grinder as losses mount at the front.
 
Though this be madness, yet there is method in’t.

Simultaneously, the EU—getting ready for "war with Russia by 2030"—is pivoting toward a more aggressive "defense" posture. Through the recently launched €800 billion EU “ReArm Europe / Readiness 2030” plan, member states are significantly increasing "defense spending" to counter perceived Russian aggression. 
 
 Militarism, war, deindustrialization, mass-migration, inflation, debt, impoverishment,
corruption, energy and food shortages: All ingredients in place for a perfect storm in the EU.
 
Moscow has dismissed these security concerns as "nonsense," suggesting that EU governments are using the "threat narrative" to distract their citizens from internal domestic failures and the growing complexities of their deliberately self-fabricated "Agenda 2030" replacement migration crisis. 
  
This is what the invasion looks like in April 2026. Thanks to Pedro Sánchez, all these
people will soon receive residence permits. Spain's socialist government approved
a mass regularization, offering one-year renewable permits to around 500,000 
undocumented migrants. The end of Spain. The end of Europe.
 
See also:

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Entering the First Global Total War | Alex Krainer

In their conversation, Lena Petrova (IR, MBA, CPA, and political economy analyst) and commodities trader, former hedge fund manager, and geopolitical analyst Alex Krainer examine the dimensions of what he terms the "First Global Total War," driven by major energy and trade disruptions and broader global market stress stemming from the US war against Iran.
 
» This is not the Third World War. This is the First Global Total War. « 
 
Krainer frames the present moment as a systemic confrontation between two competing models of governance: the Western-led, British-derived system of free trade (globalism)—criticized as fostering a regulatory and labor "race to the bottom"—and the emerging multipolar framework rooted in Alexander Hamilton’s American System of political economy (economic nationalism). The latter is a protectionist, nationally oriented, and genuinely wealth-creating model that was applied with notable success by the United States, Germany, and Japan in the 19th century, and later as sovereigntist derivatives by Korea, Mexico, Brazil, Iran, China, and numerous other nations throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries. 
 
"The Monkey System:" 1831 cartoon attacking Henry Clay's "American System" from a
Jacksonian Democratic perspective favoring limited federal economic intervention.
 
Krainer forecasts a prolonged systemic confrontation with significant implications for global energy production, industrial output, trade, and food markets, arguing that tensions and worldwide wars will persist until the foundations of the current Western neocolonial financial architecture (including private central banking) are fundamentally challenged, ultimately defeated, and replaced.
 
 
Since April 3, ten oil refineries, power plants, and energy facilities across
 seven countries have been destroyed by "fires," "explosions," and "accidents."   
 
Escalation of Conflict
Krainer interprets the wars in Ukraine and West Asia as interconnected theaters within a broader strategic struggle. He argues that Western powers seek to open additional fronts—potentially in the Baltics, the Balkans, and around the Strait of Malacca—to prevent de-escalation in Ukraine and sustain strategic pressure.

Energy as a Strategic Lever
Control over energy flows, particularly through chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, is presented as the central axis of conflict. Krainer characterizes this dynamic as part of a long-standing effort by Western neocolonial financial interests to preserve influence over the Eurasian landmass.

Commodities Markets and Inflation
On the economic front, Krainer contends that elevated equity valuations are being sustained by central bank liquidity, masking underlying structural fragility. This, he argues, has produced a growing divergence between financial markets and the real economy. He anticipates upward pressure on oil and other commodities, describing current price behavior as slow-moving and lagged in its response to geopolitical developments.

 
Rise of a Parallel System
Krainer highlights the gradual emergence of alternative financial and commodity networks operating beyond Western institutional control. He notes that many countries in the Global South are exploring paths outside IMF-aligned frameworks, despite the political and economic risks involved.

  

Monday, April 20, 2026

DJIA 2026 vs Top Three Midterm Correlated Years Since 1886 | @Fiorente2

Plotting all 35 midterm-election years for the DJIA since 1886, the spread of outcomes is enormous: In difficult midterm years, the DJIA has fallen by as much as 25% (1966), while in stronger years it has gained up to 45%. The average of ±2% is likely the most realistic expectation right now, given the current environment.
 
Chart 1: DJIA 2026 versus the Top Three Midterm Correlated Years:
1898 = approx. +20% (correlation 0.764)1926 = ended the year flat (0.716)1966 = approx. -20% (0.826)

However, to get a sharper view, the three midterm years with the highest correlation to 2026 DJIA performance (from January through last week) were selected and charted: 1966, 1926, and 1898 (Chart 1).  
  • 1966 has the strongest correlation (0.826).  
  • 1898 (0.764) is the bullish outlier: if 2026 follows that path, the market could go bazooka from here.  
  • 1926 (0.716) sits in the middle, and curiously, its path aligns with the average of the top three.
 
Chart 2: DJIA 2026 vs 1966 and Top Three Composites. In 1966, the DJIA printed its yearly low in early October.
  
Each of these years carries its own resonance: 
  • In 1898, the US was just emerging as a global power through victory in the Spanish-American War. 
  • In 1926, an industrial revolution was reshaping the economy. 
  • In 1966, tariffs, war, inflation, and a punishing midterm election defined the landscape.  
The bias points toward 1966 (Chart 2): The correlation is the strongest, and the themes are too close to ignore: tariffs, a costly overseas conflict with no clear exit, inflation concerns, and a midterm election that may punish the incumbent party. 
 
 
Berkshire Hathaway's cash position has risen to a record above $370B, underscoring a scarcity of attractive valuations and ongoing reductions in holdings such as Apple. Warren Buffett has described recent market pullbacks as modest relative to historical downturns, drawing parallels to the elevated cash levels he maintained ahead of the 1999 dot-com crash and the 2007 financial crisis—periods when major equities ultimately fell by 80–90%.
See also:

Sunday, April 19, 2026

S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low | Namzes

The big picture remains unchanged: I still expect a bear market, with a buyable 3.5-year Hurst cycle low in Q3 2026. The 20-week cycle low arrived on schedule—just one day after the ideal March 27 (Fri) window outlined in my 2026 forecast.

 Chart 1The new 20-week cycle could run higher into late May. The current 40-day cycle is now about halfway through.

I didn’t expect new all-time highs—my plan was for a rejection at the golden pocket retracement. Instead, a mix of CTA driven mechanical buying and Trump playing the market like a violin produced the blow-off top I’d anticipated back in February. The market always finds a way to humble you. 
 
The current 40-day cycle is roughly halfway complete (Chart 1). Next week should clarify whether the rally has further upside or is topping out. In my base bear case, April 17 was flagged as a potential turning point, but so far there are no signs of buying pressure slowing. Options expiration (OPEX) often serves as a pivot—either on the day itself or shortly after.
 
From a Hurst cycle perspective, the S&P 500 may still have several percent of upside left. That said, I’m not chasing it. As in February, I’ve stepped aside—risk/reward isn’t compelling for my multi-month holding framework, especially with weekend headline risk in play.

Timing-wise, the next 40-day low is due around May 7 (Thu). That should provide clearer insight into structure—namely the depth of the pullback and the strength of the rebound into late May 
(Chart 2). This sequence would then feed into a larger decline toward a higher-degree summer low. Leading indicators continue to point to a more meaningful downside move in the weeks ahead, so I remain heavily in cash.
  
 Chart 2Options expiration (OPEX) often acts as a pivot, either on the day itself or a few days after. 
Next 40-day low due around May 7 (Thu), followed by a rebound into late May.
 
Short-term models have triggered a buy signal. If you’re leaning bullish, the new 20-week cycle could extend into late May, including a typical retest of the May 40-day low. However, given the negative pressure from the dominant 3.5-year cycle, my base case is that this rally is a false breakout—likely forming another divergent top and unlikely to persist beyond April.

It’s extremely rare for a 40-week cycle (top panel, Chart 3) to undercut its prior low and still go on to make new highs. In S&P 500 history, I could identify only one comparable instance. The usual structure in such cases is an M-shaped pattern with a clear bearish bias, as highlighted by the arrows.

 
Chart 3: It’s rare for a 40-week cycle to undercut its low and still go on to make a new high.
Bottom panel shows 20-week cycle, expected to synchronize with the 40-week cycle around July. 

That’s exactly how I expected the current 20-week cycle to unfold. That said, we now need price action to confirm emerging bearish signals. A bullishly configured cycle could still extend into June. While models have triggered a buy signal, participation remains narrow and volume is light. In my view, a downside resolution over the next few weeks remains the highest-probability outcome—but it still requires confirmation. Cycles define the setup; price action and models provide the trigger. The bottom panel shows the 20-week cycle, which I expect to synchronize with the 40-week cycle around July.

To illustrate what typically happens after a 20-week cycle low when the 40-week cycle has already failed, we can look back at Q1 2022 (Chart 4). In January of that year, the price made a lower low, confirming that the 40-week cycle had failed and signaling the start of a larger-degree correction.
 
Chart 4: Typical outcome after a 20-week low when the 40-week cycle has already failed.
 
This was followed by a series of bounces that retraced some of the decline but failed to make new highs. The market then rolled over and established new lows. This pattern is typical behavior roughly 99% of the time.That’s why I’ll be watching closely to see whether the current breakout turns out to be a deviation that ultimately resolves to the downside over the next few weeks, especially with the longer 3.5-year cycle exerting downward pressure.

I'm watching for a potential Wyckoff upthrust after distribution (UTAD) to play out over the next few weeks (Chart 5). For the bulls, it's critical to keep any pullbacks shallow and hold above the 2026 opening price at SPY 685.71, as well as above the overall consolidation range. 
 
Chart 5: Watching for a potential Wyckoff UTAD to unfold in the coming weeks.