Solar Activity and Economic Recessions | Mikhail Gorbanev

Mikhail Gorbanev (December 2016) - Out of 22 recessions in the US economy identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in 1901-2008, in the years corresponding to solar cycles numbered by astronomers from 14 to 23, eleven recessions began in two years around and after maximum points of those cycles. Moreover, out of 13 of those recessions that began in 1933-2008 (solar cycles 17 to 23), eight – over 60 percent – began in two years around and after solar maximums.

Out of 36 recessions in G7 countries identified by NBER and The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) in 1965-2008 (solar cycles 20 to 23), 21 – nearly 60 percent – began in 3 years around and after solar maximums.

Since 1933, US economy spent 1/3 of time in recession in about 3 years after solar maximums.

Each of eight solar maximums in 1929-2008 overlapped closely with low points in the US unemployment rate followed by its sharp increase.

Refugee inflows in the EU countries followed solar cycle pattern in 1985-2015. 

Economic conditions in the U.S. and G7 countries deteriorated in 2015-2016, consistent with the historical pattern. Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) designed by the OECD to give early signals of turning points in the business cycle deteriorated for the U.S., for the G7 countries, and for the entire OECD. 

But no U.S. recession? A pattern observed for over 100 years suggested elevated chances of U.S. recession starting in 2014-15, which did not happen.

 

And no reversal in the U.S. unemployment trend? The historical pattern pointed to possibility that the declining trend in the U.S. unemployment rate would bottom out and reverse in 2014-15, which did not occur. 

In both cases, U.S. Fed’s highly accommodative monetary policy targeted at supporting economic recovery and boosting employment can explain the deviation from the historical pattern. Never before the U.S. Federal Funds rate remained virtually zero for so long even as the economy expanded and unemployment rate declined to its lowest level in many years. 

CLI indices for all G7 countries and the US generally reached their maximums before solar maximums and declined to their troughs in years after it.

For the entire OECD, the concordance between the CLI index and solar cycle looked even more regular. In 1962‐2012, all five solar maximums overlapped with dips in the CLI index, and the index reached its maximum values shortly before the sunspot maximums. When comparing the OECD CLI values across solar cycles, we discovered that standard deviations of the values for these cycles confirmed statistical significance of the indicator’s spike before and trough after the solar maximum. The EURO area CLI index followed broadly the same pattern, thus confirming the link with the solar cycle even when the US economy was excluded. 

Moreover, the dynamic of the CLI indices was broadly consistent among the largest OECD economies. We observed that in Japan, Germany, France, and UK, the CLI indices reached their maximums shortly before or around the solar maximum, and declined to the troughs in the years after it. The exact months of maximums and minimums varied between countries. Apparently, the statistical significance also varied, from the lowest for Japan and highest for Germany and France. 

 

The most important European revolutions of the XIX and XX century overlapped closely with the sunspot maximums. Remarkably, both the Great October Socialist Revolution of 1917 in the Russian Empire and the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991, which could be considered the two most important revolutions of the XX century, both occurred exactly in the years of solar maximums. In France, all the greatest revolutions of the modern times including the Great French Revolution of 1789, the revolutions of 1830 and 1849, and “Paris Commune” in 1871 overlapped very closely with the solar maximums. In America, the secession of the 13 southern US states in 1861 that triggered the bloodiest civil war in the continent’s history occurred in the year of solar maximum. Most recently, the cyclical increase in the solar activity in the currently unfolding 24th solar cycle overlapped closely with the “Arab Spring”, a series of revolutions in the Arab countries in 2010-13, and with revolution in Ukraine in 2013-14.

Weapon of Mass Migration | The US War on Europe

Open Gates: Coerced collective
suicide of European nations (Here)

Artificial mass migration as imperial policy has a long history, and the current mass migration into Europe is the brain child of US military grand strategist Thomas P.M. Barnett. He was a strategic advisor to former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and currently works with the Israeli military consultancy firm Wikistrat, a close collaborator of the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) in Stuttgart, Germany. Barnett’s books 'The Pentagon’s New Map' and 'Blueprint for Action' (2004, 2005) have had a major influence on US and Israeli global military geostrategies. Today Wikistrat is heavily involved in the development of ‘crowd sourcing’ and ‘crowd leveraging’ technologies, and most of the Twitter entries encouraging migrants in the Middle East and Africa to travel to Austria, Germany and Sweden come from the UK, US and Australia (Ayn Rand Institute, The Escape Institute, etc.). Barnett came up with the theory of the ‘Five Flows of Globalisation’ — five flows which must come about if US imperialism wants to prevail in the world of the 21st century. These involve the free flow of money, security, food, energy and people. The ‘Five Flows’ theory means breaking down nation-state structures and freeing up resources for pillage by US multinational corporations and hyenas of high finance. The inundation of Europe with migrants is a key feature of Barnett’s geostrategic thinking: “1.5 million immigrants from third world countries to Europe every year. The result will be a mixed new population with an average IQ of 90 - too dumb to grasp anything, but intelligent enough to work.”

Not welcome anymore (HERE)

In her book Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement, Coercion and Foreign Policy (2011), Kelly M. Greenhill argues that one of the reasons for Europe’s rapprochement with Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was the latter’s offer to stem the tide of African emigration to Europe. It would be erroneous, therefore, to suggest that the chaos wrought by the Arab Spring, the devastation of Libya and the killing of Gaddafi were unintentional. EU borders have long been deconstructed by EU utopianism of a borderless world. This fits perfectly with Greenhill’s “hypocrisy cost” of wealthy liberal nations which can be coerced by specifically such open border vulnerabilities. Hundreds of thousands of migrants are equipped with welcome booklets published by a George Soros foundation. Written in Arabic, and packed with maps and useful information on where to go, what to do, whom to refer to, and which sob story to tell to the European authorities, these rough-guides are distributed by an ominous NGO called w2eu.info, which stands for “Welcome to the EU”. One is reminded of the non-violent revolution hand book by Gene Sharp which was used to train activists in the US-Israeli fomented counter-revolutions in North Africa in 2011 (HERE). Since the very inception of the ensuing 'refugee crisis' the multi-billion dollar business of human trafficking into Europe and the booming asylum-industry is controlled by the EU Commission, globalist fifth columns inside EU member states, by the Erdoğan regime, ISIS, the Italian Mafia, certain oligarchs, and the CIA. 

Reporting on services rendered.

In 2015 the Merkel regime certainly had foreknowledge of what would happen when the chancellor repeatedly issued her infamous “Welcome” calls to not only Syrian war refugees and their families but to any “asylum-seeker” in the world. Merkel had been warned personally by her domestic intelligence and the Joint Centre for Illegal Migration Analysis and Policy that Europe's borders would be stormed and Germany and her neighbors seriously and permanently damaged and destabilized (HERE). But Merkel is clearly cooperating with a script originating from western intelligence agencies that follows the Greenhill recipes. In May 2016, facing a new mega-wave of migrants out of Libya into Italy, Merkel steadfastly refuses to close borders. By mid 2016 1.8 million “refugees” had invaded Germany. More than 1.5 million of them are young men aged 20 to 35, outnumbering the German army by the factor of 20 already. While thousands of them are ISIS and Al Nusra fighters, thousands of these invaders are actually housed on active military bases. The total cost to entertain 2 million “refugees” for the next three years was estimated to be 900 billion Euros - more than twice the federal government's annual budget of 2014. Quoting Shakespeare: “Though this be madness, yet there is method in't.”

Jihad - Muslim Invasion (HERE)

What we are dealing with here is a well-planned strategy of chaos. Washington is the driving force of this strategy that destroys entire states and nations, causing a chaotic chain reaction of division and conflict to be used according to the old method of "divide and rule." We are witnessing a genocidal covert war being waged by the Anglo-Zionist power elite on the nation states and peoples of Europe. Migrants are weaponized to create social chaos and fiscal constraints in order to prevent Berlin’s inevitable rapprochement with Moscow. The migrants cannot possibly integrate into society if the German economy does not integrate into Eurasia, as Germany will have insufficient access to resources and energy, and no viable markets for its exports. Let Europe whither on the vine. Keeping Russia and Germany separate and in conflict has been the primordial geopolitical objective of the US in Europe since 1871. Barnett predicts that both western Europe and Russia would disintegrate in the 21st Century, leaving only India and China to rival the United States. US strategists believe that coercive engineered mass migration into Europe, coupled with the American occupation of Eastern Europe and the Balkans, with terrorism and the destabilization of the Ukraine, with currency wars, trade wars, and hot wars, would altogether prevent Eurasian integration, whilst securing control over Europe and establishing the conquest of Africa would ultimately safeguard future US global supremacy. 

This is the plan and its implementation is underway. However, this will not solve any of the US' major problems: Losing the dominating position in world production, finance, trade, transport, and communication. The center is drifting towards China and other Asian countries. The US financial hegemony is endangered by the collapse of the dollar pyramid of state obligations, and the dollar's position as the world currency is undermined by the processes of regional economic integration, namely by China and Russia. As the US financial and economic system cannot be kept in balance without powerful and growing outside support, it feels objectively forced to escalate military and political tensions and eventually start a world war, that it cannot win. Von Clausewitz would have immediately realized. But Barnett is a brute, a gambler, a mercenary strategist.

HERE

On a larger time-scale, we are currently living through the repetition of the 100 Year War Cycle and the conclusion of Arnold Toynbee's 500 Year Cycle of Civilizations. We are living in a period that Antonio Gramsci termed an interregnum, morbid times, times of chaos, in which the old is dying, and the new is not born yet. The first decades of this millennium are similar to the early 16th century in Europe, times of technological innovations, population growth, migrations, capitalist expansion, but also religious secession, fanaticism and war. The process was finally directed to outer European conquest, and the ascent of the imperial West (HERE). Today the fate of the US empire largely depends on whether Russia will be sufficiently destabilized and subjected to the globalist oligarchy. Russia is the Heartland and has everything necessary to become the cornerstone for the next world system. Whether the new emerging multipolar system of civilizations and big spaces will be able to establish and to defend itself, is currently decided in Russia, by Russia, and through Russia. 

The spin-doctors and architects of this epic mass migration and population replacement unleashed a monster: French, Italians, Germans, Anglo-Saxons, Irishmen, Swedes, Poles, and almost every other European ethnic group are marked for replacement, i.e. demographic extinction. The utopia of multiculturalism failed and is rejected. Instead Europe is headed for ethnic clashes and breakdowns of economic, social, political and international regimes. However, the globalist's Great Replacement project itself may never reach its ultimate end. Naturally it is unacceptable to passively surrender, and to be dominated and replaced by invaders, by barbarians in the literal sense of the word. Pan-European Nationalism is on the rise across Europe. Radicals and fanatics are ready to defend their lands and cultures at all costs. They are prepared to topple and destroy abusive regimes, to wage civil war and pogroms. What nobody seems to be prepared for is how to recover and what should be build instead. Once the US hegemony diminishes, the leftovers of a shattered Europe may finally become absorbed in some Sino-Russian dominated Eurasian empire (HERE).

The Demographic Crash of Civilizations

The current world population of 7.3 billion is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to the latest UN-World Population Report. However, the most important development of the twenty-first century is likely to be the great extinction of peoples, nations, cultures and civilizations. The so called ‘developed world’ is failing to attend to the most elementary task of any successful civilization: raising children. Civilization, culture, social harmony and economic prosperity rest upon the indispensable pre-condition of simple physical existence. The failure to reproduce renders all other achievements irrelevant. 

Prosperity, war, birth control, decadence, exploitation, austerity, abortion
and degradation reflected in the age structure of the German population 1910,
1970, 2009 and 2060 (HERE)

Take Germany for an example: The total population counts some 82 million, the current fertility rate is 1.43 and keeps declining. Out of the 82 million, some 17 million have a recent ‘immigrant background’, some 22 million are pensioners. Germany's impressive ‘work force’ still counts some 40 million, while the neoliberal gulag of the Schroeder-Merkel regime produced an impoverished human junk heap of 11 to 18 million people. Eight million adults between 18 and 65 of age are unable to sustain themselves, are either jobless or working-poor, trapped in exploitive lease labor contracts, One-Euro-Jobs, part-times jobs, mini-jobs, and other odd Hartz-schemes. Half a million Germans are homeless, many of them children. Organized slavery entertained by the remaining tax payers. The average income laborer tributes two thirds of his gross income to a ruthless government that dished out 400 billion Euro to zombie-banks, and rips-off 100 million Euro every day to pay interest for the ‘public debt’. In this environment around 650,000 children are born each year (one third with 'immigrant background'), as compared to 840,000 yearly deaths, giving an annual shortfall of about 200,000. In other words, while over-aging and impoverishing dramatically, Germany loses the equivalent of a mid-sized city each and every year. In fact official German projections indicate that the total population will shrink to between 65 and 74 million by 2060, depending on annual net migration of 100,000 to 400,000. Obviously, the derailed reproduction of the natives (one out of three women never bears children; some 200,000 abortions every year; several hundred thousand homosexuals; etc.), along with genocidal immigration policies, population reduction and population replacement will essentially extinguish the historic German nation within this century. This general trend and time frame equally apply to almost all other European nations.

The all season disaster recipe from the Pentagon's cookbook:
NATO-engineered regime changes and civil wars, stimulated mass migration and
ensuing colonization of global venture lumpen-proletariat and refugees amongst
30 million jobless and 120 million poor native Europeans (HERE + HERE + HERE)

Today the global average fertility rate is 2.3, and 80% of the world population lives in countries where women have on average fewer than 3 children. This means the global fertility rate is barely higher than the replacement fertility, and the increase of the world population is primarily due to the increasing length of life. In 1960 China’s fertility rate was 6.1. Now it has dropped to 1.6. In Iran, the fertility rate in 1985 was 6.3; now it is down to 1.9. In Thailand, the fertility rate was 6.14 in 1955, 3.92 in 1985, and is 1.49 today. The problem with the ‘developed world’ is not only that it is broke but that it is old and barren. Fertility rates are mostly way below replacement levels, many nations are over-aged and have reached the demographic point of no return. Globally the lowest fertility rates occur in the most modernized areas of Asia: China (1.55), Japan (1.40), South Korea (1.25), Taiwan (1.11), Hong Kong (1.04), Macau (0.91), and Singapore (0.80). Extinction level rates are also prevalent among Southern European countries and former Soviet states: Portugal (1.52), Spain (1.48), Italy (1.42), Greece (1.41), Poland (1.33), Ukraine (1.30), etc.

In Africa, children under age 15 account for 41% of the population in 2015 and young persons aged 15 to 24 for a further 19%. Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia, which have seen greater declines in fertility, have smaller percentages of children (26 and 24 %) and similar percentages of youth (17 and 16%). In total, these three regions are home to 1.7 billion children and 1.1 billion young persons in 2015.
 

Source: UN DESA

Source: CIA World Factbook

Source: CIA World Factbook