Solar Activity and Economic Recessions | Mikhail Gorbanev

Out of 22 recessions in the US economy identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in 1901-2008, in the years corresponding to solar cycles numbered by astronomers from 14 to 23, eleven recessions began in two years around and after maximum points of those cycles. Moreover, out of 13 of those recessions that began in 1933-2008 (solar cycles 17 to 23), eight – over 60 percent – began in two years around and after solar maximums.

Out of 36 recessions in G7 countries identified by NBER and The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) in 1965-2008 (solar cycles 20 to 23), 21 – nearly 60 percent – began in 3 years around and after solar maximums.

Since 1933, US economy spent 1/3 of time in recession in about 3 years after solar maximums.

Each of eight solar maximums in 1929-2008 overlapped closely with low points in the US unemployment rate followed by its sharp increase.

Refugee inflows in the EU countries followed solar cycle pattern in 1985-2015. 

Economic conditions in the U.S. and G7 countries deteriorated in 2015-2016, consistent with the historical pattern. Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) designed by the OECD to give early signals of turning points in the business cycle deteriorated for the U.S., for the G7 countries, and for the entire OECD. 

But no U.S. recession? A pattern observed for over 100 years suggested elevated chances of U.S. recession starting in 2014-15, which did not happen.

 

And no reversal in the U.S. unemployment trend? The historical pattern pointed to possibility that the declining trend in the U.S. unemployment rate would bottom out and reverse in 2014-15, which did not occur. 

In both cases, U.S. Fed’s highly accommodative monetary policy targeted at supporting economic recovery and boosting employment can explain the deviation from the historical pattern. Never before the U.S. Federal Funds rate remained virtually zero for so long even as the economy expanded and unemployment rate declined to its lowest level in many years. 

CLI indices for all G7 countries and the US generally reached their maximums before solar maximums and declined to their troughs in years after it.

For the entire OECD, the concordance between the CLI index and solar cycle looked even more regular. In 1962‐2012, all five solar maximums overlapped with dips in the CLI index, and the index reached its maximum values shortly before the sunspot maximums. When comparing the OECD CLI values across solar cycles, we discovered that standard deviations of the values for these cycles confirmed statistical significance of the indicator’s spike before and trough after the solar maximum. The EURO area CLI index followed broadly the same pattern, thus confirming the link with the solar cycle even when the US economy was excluded. 

Moreover, the dynamic of the CLI indices was broadly consistent among the largest OECD economies. We observed that in Japan, Germany, France, and UK, the CLI indices reached their maximums shortly before or around the solar maximum, and declined to the troughs in the years after it. The exact months of maximums and minimums varied between countries. Apparently, the statistical significance also varied, from the lowest for Japan and highest for Germany and France. 

 

The most important European revolutions of the XIX and XX century overlapped closely with the sunspot maximums. Remarkably, both the Great October Socialist Revolution of 1917 in the Russian Empire and the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991, which could be considered the two most important revolutions of the XX century, both occurred exactly in the years of solar maximums. In France, all the greatest revolutions of the modern times including the Great French Revolution of 1789, the revolutions of 1830 and 1849, and “Paris Commune” in 1871 overlapped very closely with the solar maximums. In America, the secession of the 13 southern US states in 1861 that triggered the bloodiest civil war in the continent’s history occurred in the year of solar maximum. Most recently, the cyclical increase in the solar activity in the currently unfolding 24th solar cycle overlapped closely with the “Arab Spring”, a series of revolutions in the Arab countries in 2010-13, and with revolution in Ukraine in 2013-14.

 

Quoted from:
Mikhail Gorbanev (2016) - Solar Activity and Economic Recessions.

Weapon of Mass Migration | The US War on Europe

Open Gates: Coerced collective
suicide of European nations (Here)

Artificial mass migration as imperial policy has a long history, and the current mass migration into Europe is the brain child of US military grand strategist Thomas P.M. Barnett. He was a strategic advisor to former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and currently works with the Israeli military consultancy firm Wikistrat, a close collaborator of the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) in Stuttgart, Germany. Barnett’s books 'The Pentagon’s New Map' and 'Blueprint for Action' (2004, 2005) have had a major influence on US and Israeli global military geostrategies. Today Wikistrat is heavily involved in the development of ‘crowd sourcing’ and ‘crowd leveraging’ technologies, and most of the Twitter entries encouraging migrants in the Middle East and Africa to travel to Austria, Germany and Sweden come from the UK, US and Australia (Ayn Rand Institute, The Escape Institute, etc.). Barnett came up with the theory of the ‘Five Flows of Globalisation’ — five flows which must come about if US imperialism wants to prevail in the world of the 21st century. These involve the free flow of money, security, food, energy and people. The ‘Five Flows’ theory means breaking down nation-state structures and freeing up resources for pillage by US multinational corporations and hyenas of high finance. The inundation of Europe with migrants is a key feature of Barnett’s geostrategic thinking: “1.5 million immigrants from third world countries to Europe every year. The result will be a mixed new population with an average IQ of 90 - too dumb to grasp anything, but intelligent enough to work.”

Not welcome anymore (HERE)

In her book Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement, Coercion and Foreign Policy (2011), Kelly M. Greenhill argues that one of the reasons for Europe’s rapprochement with Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was the latter’s offer to stem the tide of African emigration to Europe. It would be erroneous, therefore, to suggest that the chaos wrought by the Arab Spring, the devastation of Libya and the killing of Gaddafi were unintentional. EU borders have long been deconstructed by EU utopianism of a borderless world. This fits perfectly with Greenhill’s “hypocrisy cost” of wealthy liberal nations which can be coerced by specifically such open border vulnerabilities. Hundreds of thousands of migrants are equipped with welcome booklets published by a George Soros foundation. Written in Arabic, and packed with maps and useful information on where to go, what to do, whom to refer to, and which sob story to tell to the European authorities, these rough-guides are distributed by an ominous NGO called w2eu.info, which stands for “Welcome to the EU”. One is reminded of the non-violent revolution hand book by Gene Sharp which was used to train activists in the US-Israeli fomented counter-revolutions in North Africa in 2011 (HERE). Since the very inception of the ensuing 'refugee crisis' the multi-billion dollar business of human trafficking into Europe and the booming asylum-industry is controlled by the EU Commission, globalist fifth columns inside EU member states, by the Erdoğan regime, ISIS, the Italian Mafia, certain oligarchs, and the CIA. 

Reporting on services rendered.

In 2015 the Merkel regime certainly had foreknowledge of what would happen when the chancellor repeatedly issued her infamous “Welcome” calls to not only Syrian war refugees and their families but to any “asylum-seeker” in the world. Merkel had been warned personally by her domestic intelligence and the Joint Centre for Illegal Migration Analysis and Policy that Europe's borders would be stormed and Germany and her neighbors seriously and permanently damaged and destabilized (HERE). But Merkel is clearly cooperating with a script originating from western intelligence agencies that follows the Greenhill recipes. In May 2016, facing a new mega-wave of migrants out of Libya into Italy, Merkel steadfastly refuses to close borders. By mid 2016 1.8 million “refugees” had invaded Germany. More than 1.5 million of them are young men aged 20 to 35, outnumbering the German army by the factor of 20 already. While thousands of them are ISIS and Al Nusra fighters, thousands of these invaders are actually housed on active military bases. The total cost to entertain 2 million “refugees” for the next three years was estimated to be 900 billion Euros - more than twice the federal government's annual budget of 2014. Quoting Shakespeare: “Though this be madness, yet there is method in't.”

Jihad - Muslim Invasion (HERE)

What we are dealing with here is a well-planned strategy of chaos. Washington is the driving force of this strategy that destroys entire states and nations, causing a chaotic chain reaction of division and conflict to be used according to the old method of "divide and rule." We are witnessing a genocidal covert war being waged by the Anglo-Zionist power elite on the nation states and peoples of Europe. Migrants are weaponized to create social chaos and fiscal constraints in order to prevent Berlin’s inevitable rapprochement with Moscow. The migrants cannot possibly integrate into society if the German economy does not integrate into Eurasia, as Germany will have insufficient access to resources and energy, and no viable markets for its exports. Let Europe whither on the vine. Keeping Russia and Germany separate and in conflict has been the primordial geopolitical objective of the US in Europe since 1871. Barnett predicts that both western Europe and Russia would disintegrate in the 21st Century, leaving only India and China to rival the United States. US strategists believe that coercive engineered mass migration into Europe, coupled with the American occupation of Eastern Europe and the Balkans, with terrorism and the destabilization of the Ukraine, with currency wars, trade wars, and hot wars, would altogether prevent Eurasian integration, whilst securing control over Europe and establishing the conquest of Africa would ultimately safeguard future US global supremacy. 

This is the plan and its implementation is underway. However, this will not solve any of the US' major problems: Losing the dominating position in world production, finance, trade, transport, and communication. The center is drifting towards China and other Asian countries. The US financial hegemony is endangered by the collapse of the dollar pyramid of state obligations, and the dollar's position as the world currency is undermined by the processes of regional economic integration, namely by China and Russia. As the US financial and economic system cannot be kept in balance without powerful and growing outside support, it feels objectively forced to escalate military and political tensions and eventually start a world war, that it cannot win. Von Clausewitz would have immediately realized. But Barnett is a brute, a gambler, a mercenary strategist.

HERE

On a larger time-scale, we are currently living through the repetition of the 100 Year War Cycle and the conclusion of Arnold Toynbee's 500 Year Cycle of Civilizations. We are living in a period that Antonio Gramsci termed an interregnum, morbid times, times of chaos, in which the old is dying, and the new is not born yet. The first decades of this millennium are similar to the early 16th century in Europe, times of technological innovations, population growth, migrations, capitalist expansion, but also religious secession, fanaticism and war. The process was finally directed to outer European conquest, and the ascent of the imperial West (HERE). Today the fate of the US empire largely depends on whether Russia will be sufficiently destabilized and subjected to the globalist oligarchy. Russia is the Heartland and has everything necessary to become the cornerstone for the next world system. Whether the new emerging multipolar system of civilizations and big spaces will be able to establish and to defend itself, is currently decided in Russia, by Russia, and through Russia. 

The spin-doctors and architects of this epic mass migration and population replacement unleashed a monster: French, Italians, Germans, Anglo-Saxons, Irishmen, Swedes, Poles, and almost every other European ethnic group are marked for replacement, i.e. demographic extinction. The utopia of multiculturalism failed and is rejected. Instead Europe is headed for ethnic clashes and breakdowns of economic, social, political and international regimes. However, the globalist's Great Replacement project itself may never reach its ultimate end. Naturally it is unacceptable to passively surrender, and to be dominated and replaced by invaders, by barbarians in the literal sense of the word. Pan-European Nationalism is on the rise across Europe. Radicals and fanatics are ready to defend their lands and cultures at all costs. They are prepared to topple and destroy abusive regimes, to wage civil war and pogroms. What nobody seems to be prepared for is how to recover and what should be build instead. Once the US hegemony diminishes, the leftovers of a shattered Europe may finally become absorbed in some Sino-Russian dominated Eurasian empire (HERE).

The Demographic Crash of Civilizations

According to the latest United Nations World Population Report, the current global population of 7.3 billion is projected to rise to 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 11.2 billion by 2100. Yet, perhaps the most significant development of the twenty-first century is not population growth, but the silent extinction of peoples, nations, cultures, and civilizations.

The so-called "developed world" is neglecting one of the most fundamental responsibilities of any enduring civilization: raising the next generation. Civilization, culture, social cohesion, and economic prosperity all depend on a basic prerequisite—continued human existence. Without reproduction, all other achievements ultimately become irrelevant.

 Prosperity, war, birth control, decadence, exploitation, austerity, abortion, and social decline are all mirrored in the changing age structure of the German population across the years 1910, 1970, 2009, and the projection for 2060. (HERE)

 

Take Germany as an example. The country has a population of approximately 82 million, with a fertility rate of 1.43—a figure that continues to decline. Of this population, around 17 million have a recent immigrant background, and roughly 22 million are retirees. Germany’s labor force still numbers about 40 million, but neoliberal reforms under the Schröder-Merkel governments have contributed to the marginalization of an estimated 11 to 18 million people, creating a socio-economic underclass.

Approximately 8 million working-age adults (18 to 65) are unable to sustain themselves—either unemployed or trapped in precarious, low-wage employment such as contract work, “One-Euro jobs,” part-time roles, mini-jobs, and other exploitative schemes tied to the Hartz labor market reforms. Around half a million Germans are homeless, many of them children, in a system where the remaining taxpayers finance what can only be described as institutionalized social neglect.

The average worker surrenders nearly two-thirds of their gross income to taxation, while the state has poured €400 billion into rescuing failing banks and continues to pay €100 million in daily interest on public debt. Within this socio-economic landscape, roughly 650,000 children are born each year—one-third to parents of immigrant backgrounds—compared to around 840,000 deaths annually, resulting in a net loss of nearly 200,000 people per year.

In essence, as it rapidly ages and grows poorer, Germany loses the equivalent of a mid-sized city every year. Official projections indicate the population will shrink to between 65 and 74 million by 2060, depending on annual net migration levels (ranging from 100,000 to 400,000). Meanwhile, demographic collapse among the native population continues, marked by a third of women remaining childless, over 200,000 abortions annually, and other structural factors contributing to a sustained decline in birth rates.

Combined with immigration policies perceived by critics as prioritizing replacement over integration, Germany faces the potential erasure of its historic national identity within this century. This trajectory is not unique; similar patterns can be observed across nearly all other European nations.
 

 The Pentagon’s all-season recipe for disaster—straight from the NATO playbook—consists of orchestrated regime changes and civil wars, which in turn trigger mass migration and the subsequent settlement of a globalized lumpenproletariat and refugee populations among 30 million unemployed and 120 million impoverished native Europeans. (HERE + HERE + HERE)

As of today, the global average fertility rate stands at 2.3, with 80% of the world’s population living in countries where women, on average, have fewer than three children. This means that global fertility is only marginally above the replacement level, and current population growth is primarily driven by increased life expectancy rather than high birth rates. In 1960, China’s fertility rate was 6.1; today it has fallen to 1.6. Iran’s fertility rate dropped from 6.3 in 1985 to 1.9 today. Thailand followed a similar trajectory: from 6.14 in 1955 to 3.92 in 1985, and down to 1.49 today.

The issue facing the developed world is not only economic stagnation but also demographic decline. Many nations are aging rapidly and experiencing fertility rates well below the replacement threshold—some have arguably passed the demographic point of no return. The lowest fertility rates globally are concentrated in the most industrialized regions of Asia: China (1.55), Japan (1.40), South Korea (1.25), Taiwan (1.11), Hong Kong (1.04), Macau (0.91), and Singapore (0.80). Similarly low, near-extinction fertility rates are seen in parts of Southern Europe and former Soviet states: Portugal (1.52), Spain (1.48), Italy (1.42), Greece (1.41), Poland (1.33), and Ukraine (1.30).

In contrast, Africa remains demographically youthful. In 2015, children under 15 made up 41% of its population, with another 19% aged 15 to 24. Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as much of Asia—regions that have seen substantial fertility declines—show smaller proportions of children (26% and 24%, respectively) and comparable shares of youth (17% and 16%). Together, these three regions were home to 1.7 billion children and 1.1 billion young people in 2015.

Source: UN DESA

 Source: CIA World Factbook.