Creditors And Debtors In The Real Sector Of The World

An interesting picture is emerging: China is a creditor to other countries in the world to the tune of more than 1,300 billion dollars. This is according to a report published by AidData: "With new data from more than 700 state-owned lenders and donors in China, we show that Beijing remains the largest source of international development finance in the world. It continues to surpass all other bilateral and multilateral sources of aid and credit to the developing world, including the US and the World Bank." Note that China, together with Hong Kong, is by a wide margin the world's largest lender. The top 8 largest debtor countries have not changed for many years (Ireland is to be overtaken by Italy early next year), but the amount of debt is growing: 1. US, 2. UK, 3. Japan, 4. Netherlands, 5. France, 6. Ireland, 7. Italy, 8. Germany. G8 total external debt ~ over $63 trillion. 

Quoted from:
Pravda (Nov 09, 2023) - An interesting picture is emerging.

Taxation of Average Income in OECD-Countries │ 2016

Data: OECD - Taxing Wages 2017 Database (SSC = Social Security Contribution).

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) analyzes how 35 countries tax wage-earners, making it possible to compare tax burdens across the world’s biggest economies. Each year, the OECD measures what it calls the tax wedge, the gap between what a worker gets paid and what they actually spend or save. Included are income taxes, payroll taxes, and any tax credits or rebates that supplement worker income. Excluded are the countless other ways that governments levy taxes, such as sales and value-added taxes, property taxes, and taxes on investment income and gains.

The highest average tax wedges for childless single workers earning the average national wage were in Belgium (54.0%), Germany (49.4%) and Hungary (48.2%). The lowest were in Chile (7%), New Zealand (17.9%) and Mexico (20.1%). The United States are in the bottom third (31.7%) - considerably below the OECD-average (36.0%). A single worker earning an average wage in Belgium ends up paying a tax rate almost eight times higher than the average single worker in Chile.

The tax wedge for families with children is lower than that for single individuals without children in all OECD countries except in Chile and Mexico, where both family types face the same tax levels. No Personal Income Tax is payable at the average wage level in Chile and no tax provisions for families with children exist in Mexico. The differences are particularly large in Canada, the Czech Republic, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg and Slovenia. 

Solar Activity and Economic Recessions | Mikhail Gorbanev

Mikhail Gorbanev (Dec 2016) - Out of 22 recessions in the US economy identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in 1901-2008, in the years corresponding to solar cycles numbered by astronomers from 14 to 23, eleven recessions began in two years around and after maximum points of those cycles. Moreover, out of 13 of those recessions that began in 1933-2008 (solar cycles 17 to 23), eight – over 60 percent – began in two years around and after solar maximums.

Out of 36 recessions in G7 countries identified by NBER and The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) in 1965-2008 (solar cycles 20 to 23), 21 – nearly 60 percent – began in 3 years around and after solar maximums.

Since 1933, US economy spent 1/3 of time in recession in about 3 years after solar maximums.

Each of eight solar maximums in 1929-2008 overlapped closely with low points in the US unemployment rate followed by its sharp increase.

Refugee inflows in the EU countries followed solar cycle pattern in 1985-2015. 

Economic conditions in the U.S. and G7 countries deteriorated in 2015-2016, consistent with the historical pattern. Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) designed by the OECD to give early signals of turning points in the business cycle deteriorated for the U.S., for the G7 countries, and for the entire OECD. 

But no U.S. recession? A pattern observed for over 100 years suggested elevated chances of U.S. recession starting in 2014-15, which did not happen.
 
And no reversal in the U.S. unemployment trend? The historical pattern pointed to possibility that the declining trend in the U.S. unemployment rate would bottom out and reverse in 2014-15, which did not occur. 

In both cases, U.S. Fed’s highly accommodative monetary policy targeted at supporting economic recovery and boosting employment can explain the deviation from the historical pattern. Never before the U.S. Federal Funds rate remained virtually zero for so long even as the economy expanded and unemployment rate declined to its lowest level in many years. 

CLI indices for all G7 countries and the US generally reached their maximums before solar maximums and declined to their troughs in years after it.

For the entire OECD, the concordance between the CLI index and solar cycle looked even more regular. In 1962‐2012, all five solar maximums overlapped with dips in the CLI index, and the index reached its maximum values shortly before the sunspot maximums. When comparing the OECD CLI values across solar cycles, we discovered that standard deviations of the values for these cycles confirmed statistical significance of the indicator’s spike before and trough after the solar maximum. The EURO area CLI index followed broadly the same pattern, thus confirming the link with the solar cycle even when the US economy was excluded. 

Moreover, the dynamic of the CLI indices was broadly consistent among the largest OECD economies. We observed that in Japan, Germany, France, and UK, the CLI indices reached their maximums shortly before or around the solar maximum, and declined to the troughs in the years after it. The exact months of maximums and minimums varied between countries. Apparently, the statistical significance also varied, from the lowest for Japan and highest for Germany and France. 

The most important European revolutions of the XIX and XX century overlapped closely with the sunspot maximums. Remarkably, both the Great October Socialist Revolution of 1917 in the Russian Empire and the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991, which could be considered the two most important revolutions of the XX century, both occurred exactly in the years of solar maximums. In France, all the greatest revolutions of the modern times including the Great French Revolution of 1789, the revolutions of 1830 and 1849, and “Paris Commune” in 1871 overlapped very closely with the solar maximums. In America, the secession of the 13 southern US states in 1861 that triggered the bloodiest civil war in the continent’s history occurred in the year of solar maximum. Most recently, the cyclical increase in the solar activity in the currently unfolding 24th solar cycle overlapped closely with the “Arab Spring”, a series of revolutions in the Arab countries in 2010-13, and with revolution in Ukraine in 2013-14.

Tax Burdens in OECD Countries | U.S. Among the Low-Tax Nations

Source: Bloomberg

New data of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) shows that the average tax to GDP ratio in OECD countries was 34.3% in 2015 compared with 34.2% in 2014 and 33.8% in 2013. The 2015 tax rates are the highest recorded since OECD records began in 1965. However, the U.S. total tax burden of 26.4% of gross domestic product (including state and local taxes) is far down in the global rankings. Of the 35 OECD members only South Korea, Ireland, Chile and Mexico have lower tax burdens, while with 46.6% Denmark had the highest tax to GDP ratio.

Compared with 2007 (pre-recession) tax to GDP ratios, the biggest fall has been in Ireland, from 30.4% in 2007 to 23.6% of GDP in 2015. The second largest fall occurred in Norway, from 42.1% of GDP in 2007 to 38.1% in 2015. The tax burden in Turkey increased from 24.1% to 30.0% between 2007 and 2015. Greece and Mexico showed increases of 4% over the same period.