The Grinch Barometer | Wayne Whaley

Define the Grinch Barometer as the S&Ps performa over the 3 trading days before and after Xmas (6 days). Stay tuned for Grinch spottings.

 

 

 

Since 1950, a negative Grinch has been followed by a positive January in 16 of those 19 years (average month = +4.3%) and a positive calendar year in 18 of those 19 cases (average year = +19.4%). To the contraire, eleven of the 12 S&P double digit loss years since 1950 followed positive Grinch’s.

 

Quoted from:
Wayne Whaley (Dec 09, 2023) - The Whaley - Grinch Barometer. 

 

On Dec 08 (Fri) the VIX printed a new yearly low at 12.35.

S&P 500 McClellan Summation Index - the long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator  - 

kept steadily rising for six week and closed at 858 last Friday. No reversal.

 

The High Low Logic Index (last Friday = 1.467) indicates no reversal and that the NASDAQ is nowhere near a major top yet. Every major high since 2000 happened only after the logic index had reached 1.92 or higher prior to the top: 2000 = 1.92; 2007 = 2.01; 2015 = 2.18; 2018 = 2.05; 2019 (2020 crash) = 2.17; 2021 = 2.09. 

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily bars)

However, the DJIA now closed the sixth week / the 27th trading day above the 9-day moving average a.k.a. the market maker re-balance level within all different weekly range templates. Not sure when this happened last time. All the shallow consolidations during the past four weeks occurred around the 3-day moving average only. Spectacular. Meanwhile the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ consolidated last week around the 9 DMA into Thursday before taking out the previous weeks high once again - but by some points only. Nasdaq actually printed lower weekly lows and closed on a lower high. What goes up will come down again to 50%+ levels - sooner or later. Next Monday, December 11, the DJIA will open the seventh week / the 28th trading day above the 9 DMA. Impressive outside fourth quarter range on a new 2023 high. The S&P 500 touched the July 27 yearly high to the pip but did not break to the upside. Lagging behind the other two major indexes by at least a single pip. Quite fantastic. Monday, December 10, will be 45 solar longitude degrees away from the November 27 major low. Tuesday, December 12 looks like a New Moon and 'Sensitive Solar Degree' December high. Saturday-Sunday, December 16-17 is a turn day in the geocentric Bradley Siderograph and should mark a low in US stocks. 

Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees of the Sun | December 2023

 

» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less active for each year,

as the sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year. 

So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «

 

Quoted from:

Jack Gillen (1979): The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange.

 
2023 12 08 (Fri) = SUN @ 16° SAG
2023 12 12 (Tue) = SUN @ 20° SAG = New Moon
2023 12 16 (Sat) = SUN @ 24° SAG
2023 12 28 (Thu) = SUN @ 06° CAP

2024 01 02 (Tue) = Sun @ 11° CAP 

 Solar Ephemeris.

The Three Day Cycle & Parabolic Trade Setups | Stacey Burke

There are only three things price can do:
1. Breakout from a Range and Trend.
2. Breakout from a Range and Reverse.
3. Trading Range between Highs and Lows.

 

 1. Structure / Pattern

•  Do we have any larger geometrical patterns?
•  Head and Shoulders / Sell (Reverse Head and Shoulders / Buy)
• Descending Triangle (Sell) Ascending Triangle (Buy)
• Double Bottoms (Buy), Double Tops (Sell)
• Rectangles (Continuation / Reversal)
• Helps us identify geometric patterns for potential measured move profit targets for asymmetrical risk / reward.

I am mainly focused on horizontal ranges no matter what the geometrical pattern is. (The high and the low of the structure, typically this will be numbered “boxes” of 25-50-100 pips.) Numbers are horizontal. I DON’T TRADE DIAGONAL TREND LINE BREAKS.

2. High of the Day (HOD) / Low of the Day (LOD)

 

Where is the high, where is the low? There is a high and a low that the market is trading inside of. The market is either in a consolidation or a break out. The current HOD and LOD may be inside of a larger rectangle.

3. Timings

 

My focus is on the 3 hour window. 1 hour before the equity markets open, the hour of the equity markets open, and the hour after the equity markets open. Hence 12 - 15 minute candles.

• ASIA 8-11 pm NY EST
• EUR / LONDON 2-5 am NY EST
• NEW YORK 8-11 am NY EST

This allows me to have laser-like focus for some simple recurring setups that occur frequently enough for selling, buying or trend trading setups. This repeatable cycle is recurring in all three 12 candle windows. Whether or not the range, the pattern and a good risk / reward trade setup is in each window is unpredictable.

4. Round Numbers

 

Typically these trades will come off of round numbers, specifically 00’s and 50’s. The quarter levels, 25 and 75 will often be a “stop hunt” extension of a 50 or 00 trading box.

5. Price Behaviour for Trade Setups

 

I look for engulfments and pin hammers. These can be “with trend” trades, or reversals, for stop hunts or in a trading range.I look to ENTER the majority of my trades “AT OR NEAR” number, i.e. 25, 50, 75, 00. Sometimes I may limit order these trades, others I may just get filled at market.

• “M” PATTERNS - TYPE 1,2,3
• “W” PATTERNS - TYPE 1,2,3

6. Risk Management / Profit Targets

 

My average STOP LOSS is 1 ATR. For most of the pairs it will be 20 pips. The GBPAUD, GBPNZD may be 25. Depending on the level of volatility on the day, on the pair, it may be a bit more or less give or take. Typically though, I am looking for a 1 bar stop. Position sizing can depend on the type of setup, and the size of stop loss.

The minimum PROFIT TARGET is usually 50 pips. Sometimes a market may hit a previous day’s high or low, or the current day’s high or low, OR SIGNIFICANT ROUND NUMBERS, 00, 50, and the market may stop there. I may only be up 40 pips. When those levels are prominent, it may be necessary to adjust that target on the day, based on HOW PRICE BEHAVES when it gets to those levels. Other trades (Measured Moves) may be in the area of 50-75 or a 100 or more pips. Again, depending on the setup and how that pair is trading on the day.

7. Trade Management / Self Management

 

Once I am in the trade, I will fight every urge that I have to interfere with it. I review the trade setup and thesis that I have for the trade. I monitor the behaviour initially based on my thesis. I will typically leave the screen, or watch, and monitor myself, self talk, do meditation, and possibly review the other pairs to identify any other setups.

 

I will normally NOT ADJUST my stop loss to BREAK EVEN UNTIL, the market has broken a high or low boundary, ( I wait for the 15 min candle to close) OR it has CLOSED 30 pips or more, breaking into the next quarterly range. At 40 pips, depending on if the market has moved (fast or creeping) I will potentially look to LOCK IN 40 pips if the market has “two-sided” trading occurring near my profit target. So, to clarify, if it has spent 30 minutes near my target without hitting it, I will be watching closely to “LOCK IN” profits, in case the market is preparing to reverse. When you are up 40 pips, YOU NEED TO GET PAID.

 

Quoted from:

 Stacey Burke - 50 Pips a Day - Basic Rules - 12 Candle Window - 15 Minute Charts.

 

 Dump & Pump Pattern.

 Pump & Dump Pattern.

 

Reference:

Stacey Burke Trading - YouTube Channel.

Stacey Burke (2022) - Best Trade Setups Playbook.

Stacey Burke related articles on TPR.

Aksel Kibar (Jan 01, 2022) - Classical Chart Patterns in Global Equity Markets.

Peter L. Brandt & Bruce Babcock Jr. (1990) - Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns.

 

Stacey Burke - Three Day Trading Setups.

 

Aksel Kibar - Type 1 Breakout: Breakout NOT followed by Pullback.

 

Aksel Kibar - Type 2 Breakout: Breakout followed by Pullback.

Aksel Kibar - Type 3 Breakout: Breakout followed by hard Re-Test of Pattern Boundary.

And then there is the so called 'Failed Breakout' when price fails to continue

moving in the breakout's direction and instead reverses course.

The Chariot And Its Significance In World History | Oswald Spengler

The purpose of historical research is to depict the fate of human beings in a pictorial form, as far as it is manifested in deeds and personalities. We would know nothing of the Germanic migration period with its figures and battles if we were solely reliant on ground finds. Among these, however, one group is always overlooked or underestimated in its true historical significance: the weapons. They are closer to history than fragments and ornaments. They have been treated much too superficially by only considering their ornamentation or manufacturing technique. There is a lack of a psychology of weapons. Every weapon also speaks of the style of fighting and thus of the worldview of its bearers. In the invention, dissemination, or rejection of certain weapons, there is an ethos.

 

 

 

The bow, for example, is the first distance weapon that was instinctively rejected as unchivalrous by a group of European tribes. This includes, among others, the Romans, the Greeks of the mainland, and most Germanic tribes. In the depictions of the Ionian Odyssey saga on Corinthian and Attic vases, therefore, the bow, which is necessary to characterise the scene, is placed to the side, and Odysseus is given a sword, the weapon of combat man to man. [...] A new kind of man belongs to this weapon [the chariot]. The joy of risk and adventure, of personal bravery and chivalric ethos, becomes apparent. Master races arise that view war as the content of life and look down with pride and contempt on peasant peoples and cattle-breeding tribes. Here, in the second millennium, is expressed a mankind that was not there before. A new kind of soul is born. From then on, there is conscious heroism.

Quoted from:
Oswald Spengler (February 06, 1934) - The Chariot and Its Significance in the Course of World History. 

Lecture delivered at the Society of Friends of Asian Art and Culture in Munich, German Reich.

Russian War Goal In Western Asia | Independent Islamic Republic

Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei (born April 19, 1939) is an Iranian Twelver Shia marja' and politician who has been the second supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran since 1989. He previously served as third president of Iran from 1981 to 1989. Khamenei is the longest-serving head of state in West Asia, as well as the second-longest-serving Iranian leader of the last century, after Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

 

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (born October 7, 1952) is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has been President of the Russian Federation since 2012. Putin has held continuous positions as president or prime minister since 1999: as prime minister from 1999 to 2000 and from 2008 to 2012, and as president from 2000 to 2008 and since 2012.

 

Benjamin Netanyahu (born October 21, 1949) is an Israeli politician who has been serving as the prime minister of the State of Israel since 2022, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. He is the chairman of the Likud party. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years. He is also the first prime minister to have been born in the State of Israel after its Declaration of Independence.

Reference:
Independent Islamic Republic (Dec 03, 2023) - Russia's Support for Palestine: Putin's Foreign Policy Is WahhabiZio's Nightmare.

S&P 500

 

S&P 500 (monthly bars - quarterly, monthly ranges) 

 

S&P 500 (weekly bars - quarterly, monthly, weekly ranges)

  Five weeks of rise. Move above July 27, 2023 quarterly high makes last quarter of 2023 

an Outside Quarter Range (as in NDX and DJI already). March 27, 2022 high next quarterly level.

 

S&P 500 (daily bars - monthly, weekly, daily ranges)

 Most recent example of outside quarterly reversal in January 2022; to the downside:

quarterly levels breached, daily and weekly reversals triggered. 

 

89.8% of S&P 500 stocks above 20 day moving average.

 Dec 4 (Mon) Moon at apogee and Mercury at  greatest elongation east (previous examples HERE).

Third lunar quarter starting Dec 5 (Tue). Tuesday to Friday major red news.

Weekly Opening Range Breakouts & Daily Range As Multiple Of Asian Range

 

Reference:
Stacey Burke (2023) - Trading Inside or Outside the Daily and Weekly Range.
TPR (2023) - The Weekly Opening Range & ICT Weekly Range Profiles.

 

 The ICT 2022 Mentorship Trading Strategy.

S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern For December 2023 | Jeff Hirsch

First half of December weak ahead of mid-month pop.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Nov 29, 2023) @ X

 

 primetimes2.com - Cycle of Solunar Forces in December, 2023.

The ICT 2022 Mentorship Trading Strategy

Reference:

Michael J. Huddleston a.k.a. The Inner Circle Trader - 2022 ICT Mentorship. (video lectures)

Darya Filipenka a.k.a. LumiTraders (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship. (book)

Dan Dowd - 2022 ICT Mentorship Notes.
Braveheart - 2022 ICT Mentorship Notes. 

KelvinFX_ - 2022 ICT Mentorship Notes.

Arjo - 2022 ICT Mentorship Notes.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 (monthly bars). Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly Highs and Lows and Targets. First month up.

Cup & Handle pattern? No.  

 

 

 

 Nasdaq 100 (weekly bars). Four weeks up. Current inside.

Nasdaq 100 (daily bars)

 

Nasdaq 100 (1 hour bars) - Last week narrow range. This one still inside. Close above balance line. 

 

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday 'Major Red News'.

 

 

The Financial System Has Reached The End | Egon von Greyerz

The world is now witnessing the end of a currency and financial system which the Chinese already forecasted in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window [...] History tells us that we have now reached the point of no return. So denying history at this point will not just be very costly but will lead to a total destruction of investors’ wealth. 

 

History never lies but politicians do without fail. In a fake system based on false values, lying is considered to be an essential part of political survival. Let’s just look at Nixon's ignorant and irresponsible statements of August 15, 1971 when he took away the gold backing of the dollar and thus all currencies. Later on we will show how clear-sighted the Chinese leaders were about the destiny of the US and its economy. So there we have tricky Dick’s lies:

• The suspension of the convertibility of the dollar in 1971 is still in effect 52 years later.
• As the dollar has declined by almost 99% since 1971, the “strength of the economy” is also declining fast although using fiat money as the measure hides the truth.

And now to the last lie: “Your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow”. Yes, you are almost right Dick!  It is still worth today a whole 1% of the value when you closed the gold window. The political system is clearly a farce. You have to lie to be elected and you have to lie to stay in power. That is what the gullible voters expect. The sad result is that they will always be cheated. So in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window, China in its official news media the People’s Daily made the statements below: 

 

Clearly the Chinese understood the consequences of the disastrous US decision which would destroy the Western currency system as they said:

• Seriousness of the US economic crisis and decay and decline of the capitalist system.
• Mark the collapse of the monetary system with the US dollar as its prop.
• Nixon’s policy cannot extricate the US from financial and economic crisis.

I am quite certain that the US administration at the time ridiculed China’s official statement. As most Western governments, they showed their arrogance and complete ignorance of history. How right the Chinese were. But the road to perdition is not immediate and we have seen over 50 years the clear “decline of the capitalist system”. The end of the current system is unlikely to be far away. Interestingly it seems that a Communist non-democratic system is much more clairvoyant than a so called Western democracy. There is clearly an advantage not always having to buy votes. 

 

As the whole currency system is about to implode,  it is in my view totally irrelevant where the US dollar is heading short term measured against other fiat currencies. The dilemma is that most “experts” use the Dollar Index (DXY) as the measure of the dollar’s strength or weakness. This is like climbing the ladder of success only to find out that the ladder is leaning against the wrong building. To measure the dollar against its partners in crime (the other fiat currencies) misses the point as they are all on the way to perdition. So the dollar index measures the dollar against six fiat currencies: Euro, Pound, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Kroner and Swiss Franc. The Chinese Yuan shines in its absence even though China is the second biggest economy in the world. But here is the crux. The dollar is in a race to the bottom with 6 other currencies. Since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 all 7 currencies, including the US dollar, have declined 97-99% in real terms. Real terms means constant purchasing power. And the only money which has maintained constant purchasing power for over 5,000 years is of course gold. So let’s make it clear – the only money which has survived in history is GOLD!

All other currencies have without fail gone to ZERO and that without exception. Voltaire said it already in 1729: "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero." And that has been the destiny of every currency throughout history. Every single currency has without fail gone to ZERO. And this is where the dollar and its lackeys are heading. To debate if a currency, which has fallen 98.2% in the last 52 years, is going to strengthen or weaken in the next year or two is really missing the point. It is virtually 100% certain that the dollar and all fiat money will complete the cycle (which started in 1913 with the creation of the Fed) and fall the remaining 1-3% to ZERO. But we must remember that the final fall involves a 100% loss of value from today.

 

 

[...] The world’s reserve currency has had a sad performance based on lies, poor real growth, all due to a mismanaged economy based on debt and printed money. So although most currencies have lost 97-99% in real terms since 1971 there are shining exceptions. When the gold window was closed in 1971 I was working in a Swiss bank in Geneva. At the time, one dollar cost Swiss Franc 4.30. Today, 52 years later, one dollar costs Swiss Franc 0.88! This means that the dollar has declined 80% against the Swiss Franc since 1971. 

 

So a country like Switzerland with virtually no deficits and a very low debt to GDP proves that a well managed economy with very low inflation doesn’t destroy its currency like most irresponsible governments. The Swiss system of direct democracy and people power is totally unique and gives the people the right to have a referendum on almost any issue they choose. This makes the people much more responsible in their choices as a winning vote on any issue becomes part of the constitution and cannot be changed by government or parliament. Only a new referendum can change such a decision. Swiss Debt to GDP is around 40%. This was the level of US debt back in 1971 before the gold window was closed. [...] US debt to GDP is now 132%. In 2000 it was 55%. 132% debt to GDP is the level of a Banana Republic which is frantically trying to survive by printing and borrowing ever increasing amounts of worthless fiat money.

  

Quoted from:
Egon von Greyerz (Nov 27, 2023) - The Financial System Has Reached The End.

 

 Agustín Carstens, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) — the central bank of central banks in Basel, Switzerland — admits that Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) will grant central bankers » absolute control « over how it can be used, and the technology to be able to centrally enforce that. Not 'up to date' with your injections? Exceeded your weekly carbon allowance? Ventured outside of your designated '15 minute' district? Oops, no money for you!  

 

» Digital ID and CBDC is the essence of scientific dictatorship «, says Patrick Wood, author of the 2014 book 'Technocracy Rising: 

The Trojan Horse of Global Transformation'. He breaks down the all-encompassing digital open-air prison

that CBDC and digital ID are designed to facilitate.

 

Joe Rogan, host of the world's most popular podcast, is now wide awake to the grave dangers posed to freedoms by CBDC, and the social credit systems that it facilitates. » If you get a bad social credit score because you tweeted something they didn't like, now you can't buy a plane ticket, now you can't buy a car, now you can't get a loan. «

See also:

Bank for International Settlements (2023) - BIS Innovation Hub work on central bank digital currency (CBDC).

International Monetary Fund (Nov 20, 2023) - Central Bank Digital Currency Development Enters the Next Phase.

Atlantic Council (Mar 21, 2023) - Snapshot: Which countries have made the most progress on CBDCs so far in 2023.

Imran N. Hosein (2021) - The Bretton Woods International Monetary System.

Carroll Quigley (1963) - The BIS — The Apex Of The System.

Carl Schmitt (1932) - Legality and Legitimacy.

US Stock Indexes | Shallow Retracement Into Early-Mid-December Now Likely

Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly bars)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily bars)

Monthly weekly and daily trends are up. 

S&P 500 (weekly bars)

S&P 500 (daily bars)

Eleven days, three levels and nearly 6 * ATR above the re-accumulation low of November 9.

 

Nasdaq 100 (weekly bars) 

Nasdaq 100 (daily bars) 

CNN Fear & Greed Index (daily bars).

 NYSE McClellan Oscillator (daily bars)

 

CBOE Volatility Index (monthly bars). Very close to multi-year lows.

SPX Put/Call Ratio = 1.63 for Nov 24 2023.

 

 Seth Golden (Nov 25, 2023):
The Trifecta of Overbought Conditions:
92% of SPX above 20-DMA, highest in 2+ yrs
McClellan Oscillator > 80+
S&P 500 2 std. above 50-DMA (RSI also 70+)

 

 

 

Four weeks+ of price expansion beyond daily, weekly and quarterly levels. Last week narrow daily and weekly ranges. Multi-month inflation melt-up? Possible. Allen Reminick suggests a creep up into November 27 (Mon) or December 1 (Fri) followed by some rather shallow 23-50% move down into December 8 or mid-month, some X-mas rally, sideways into January 12 and up into March-April 2024. Possible. [ Allen Reminick (Nov 20, 2023) - S&P 500 Projection Into June 2024 ]

 

See also:

Richard Wyckoff's Distribution Schematics.