Source: IMF |
Monday, June 20, 2016
Sunday, June 19, 2016
The End of Cheap China | 16 Emerging Low Wage Economies
Post-China 16 countries |
The new activity is focused on Africa, Asia and to a lesser extent, Latin America. When you look at the map, much of this new activity is focused in the Indian Ocean Basin. The most interesting pattern is in the eastern edge of Sub-Saharan Africa: Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia. It is primarily garment and footwear manufacturers that are firstly starting to relocate. The second area where there has been a change-over is the market of cell-phone assembly operations. In the first field it’s the skills that are easily exploitable in the workforce. In the second sector of activity is the need to have low-prices to be competitive. 50 Turkish garment factories are currently relocating to Ethiopia for example. Hennes & Mauritz AB (H&M) are also currently considering purchasing more than 1 million garments from Ethiopia every month. Costs per unit in Ethiopia are 50% cheaper than in China at the moment. However, this is estimated to rise to the current Chinese level by 2019. Chinese salaries increased last year by 17.1% and the previous year it was 18%. Salaries in China are on average just 30% lower than in the US today. Salaries in China now exceed those in Mexico and in Turkey. Ethiopia has an economic growth of 10% today. However, it remains one of the poorest countries in the world despite having one of the top economic-growth prospects of the continent.
Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Myanmar and Bangladesh are directly on the Indian Ocean. The Indochinese countries and the Philippines are not on the Indian Ocean, and even though I don't want to overstate the centrality of the Indian Ocean, they are nearby. At the very least we can say that there are two ocean basins, the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Peru, the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Mexico are the Post-China countries in Latin America.
China's strength in infrastructure spending. Its bar is the highest. The colored slices represent different kinds of infrastructure, while the width of the bars signifies the size of the economy. The U.S. bar is wide and short because it represents a big economy with low spending. Source: Bloomberg. |
Artificial Intelligence Long Range Forecasts | Stock Indices | Crude Oil | Gold
FFC Long Range Forecasts rely exclusively on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to analyze and model. Source: Financial Forecast Center, LLC. |
Red dots represent monthly mean prices. First dot after the dashed vertical is June 2016, last one November 2016. |
MarketVector Financial Forecasts produces long range forecasts using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA). MSSA to decompose the time series into a trend component and many cyclical components. The decomposed components of the time series are then projected forward in time. |
Chartsedge provides stock market forecasts are based on cycle data which has been analyzed by a Pattern Recognition Program. |
McVerry Report generates 5-Day U.S. Market Forecasts based on Artificial Intelligence. |
Thursday, June 16, 2016
German Bunds | 10 Year Yield (%) 1807 - 2016
Source: FTAlphaville |
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
SPX | VIX | CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio
The VIX opened and closed above the upper Bollinger Band. Stochastics (%k) at 83.11 hint to a short term reversal of the VIX. |
The 118 CD Cycle suggests a 1-2 day countertrend. |
The 3 Day MA of the Put/Call Ratio at 0.79 still offers some room to the downside for the SPX. |
Friday, June 10, 2016
Weapon of Mass Migration | The US War on Europe
Open Gates: Coerced collective suicide of European nations (Here) |
Not welcome anymore (HERE) |
Reporting on services rendered. |
Jihad - Muslim Invasion (HERE) |
This is the plan and its implementation is underway. However, this will not solve any of the US' major problems: Losing the dominating position in world production, finance, trade, transport, and communication. The center is drifting towards China and other Asian countries. The US financial hegemony is endangered by the collapse of the dollar pyramid of state obligations, and the dollar's position as the world currency is undermined by the processes of regional economic integration, namely by China and Russia. As the US financial and economic system cannot be kept in balance without powerful and growing outside support, it feels objectively forced to escalate military and political tensions and eventually start a world war, that it cannot win. Von Clausewitz would have immediately realized. But Barnett is a brute, a gambler, a mercenary strategist.
HERE |
The spin-doctors and architects of this epic mass migration and population replacement unleashed a monster: French, Italians, Germans, Anglo-Saxons, Irishmen, Swedes, Poles, and almost every other European ethnic group are marked for replacement, i.e. demographic extinction. The utopia of multiculturalism failed and is rejected. Instead Europe is headed for ethnic clashes and breakdowns of economic, social, political and international regimes. However, the globalist's Great Replacement project itself may never reach its ultimate end. Naturally it is unacceptable to passively surrender, and to be dominated and replaced by invaders, by barbarians in the literal sense of the word. Pan-European Nationalism is on the rise across Europe. Radicals and fanatics are ready to defend their lands and cultures at all costs. They are prepared to topple and destroy abusive regimes, to wage civil war and pogroms. What nobody seems to be prepared for is how to recover and what should be build instead. Once the US hegemony diminishes, the leftovers of a shattered Europe may finally become absorbed in some Sino-Russian dominated Eurasian empire (HERE).
Thursday, June 9, 2016
CHF Long Against EUR + USD | EUR/USD to Double | Cyclic Vibrations
Ahmed Ferghaly's latest cyclic analysis of currencies searches for possibilities to long against the USD in the upcoming environment. EUR and USD are likely to perform a continued, maybe drastic devaluation towards the CHF into 2019. Then the recovery rally of the EUR is expected to last into late 2023 (HERE + HERE) |
In this 18 Year Cycle the EUR should double to the USD (HERE). |
Wednesday, June 8, 2016
Who Owns What In The FTSE 100?
SPX | Extreme Greed but Room to the Top
The VIX (CBOE volatility index) revisited the Oct 28, 2015 low at 12.8 and reversed to the upside, while the SPX formed a NR4, and a doji candle. June 8 (Wed) is 118 CD (4 Lunar Cycles) from the major low on Feb 11, 2016. The SoLunar Map points to a high on June 9 (Thu). There is a cluster of 3 potential Jack Gillen turn days from June 6 to 8. Since June 10 (Fri) is a Cosmic Cluster Day, the indices may keep chopping up into Thursday or even Friday. Please note: The NYSE McClellan Oscillator and the the McClellan Ratio Adjusted NYSE Summation Index are still rising (HERE + HERE) |
Credits: CNN Fear & Greed Index |
Monday, June 6, 2016
Spotless Sun | Solar Cycle # 24 weakest in more than a Century
Not a single sunspot since June 3rd. However, solar activity of course continues modulating geomagnetism, and in some two or three days sunspots should reappear from region #12,546, currently still on the sun's farside. The current Solar Cycle # 24 is the weakest solar cycle in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since Solar Cycle # 14 peaked in February 1906. |
The Sun rotates counterclockwise, but not as a rigid sphere: The equator rotates faster than the poles (differential rotation). |
Saturday, June 4, 2016
One Pint of Kindness. One Quart of Laughter. One Pinch of Concern.
Muhammad Ali (January 17, 1942 – June 3, 2016) on "How I’d like to be remembered" (1974).
Friday, June 3, 2016
Global Oil and Gas Exploration and Development | US + CAN in Free Fall
Enlarge |
The international rig count for April 2016 was 946, down 39 from the 985 counted in March 2016 , and down 256 from the 1,202 counted in April 2015 . The international offshore rig count for April 2016 was 220, up 9 from the 211 counted in March 2016 , and down 80 from the 300 counted in April 2015 .
The average U.S. rig count for April 2016 was 437, down 41 from the 478 counted in March 2016 , and down 539 from the 976 counted in April 2015. In late May only 404 rigs were left in operation in the U.S.. The average Canadian rig count for April 2016 was 41, down 47 from the 88 counted in March 2016 , and down 49 from the 90 counted in April 2015 . The worldwide rig count for April 2016 was 1,424, down 127 from the 1,551 counted in March 2016 , and down 844 from the 2,268 counted in April 2015 .
SPX vs Venus Latitude Cycle @ MIN @ MAX @ 0°
Thursday, June 2, 2016
SPX vs Solar Activity
Blowing in the Wind | Germany's Renewable Energy Devolution
After two decades of Green Craze, Global Warming Doom, and hundreds of billions of Euros of subsidies, how much of Germany's energy consumption is actually supplied by its solar and wind parks? Less than 3 percent (HERE + HERE) |
SPX vs CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio
CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio is at a current level of 0.55, down from 0.58 the previous market day and up from 0.54 one year ago. This is a change of -5.17% from the previous market day and 1.85% from one year ago. |
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
The Limits of Oil’s Rebound
Unpredictable shifts in supply and demand will, of course, cause fluctuations within this trading range, which past experience suggests could be quite large. In the 20-year period of competitive pricing from 1985 to 2004, the oil price frequently doubled or halved in the course of a few months. So the near-doubling of oil prices since mid-January’s $28 low is not surprising. But now that the $50 ceiling is being tested, we can expect the next major move in the trading range to be downward."
Crude oil increased 0.62 USD/BBL or 1.26% to 49.98 on Tuesday May 31 from 49.36 in the previous trading session. Crude oil lost 10.26 USD/BBL or 17.03 % during the last 12 months from 60.24 USD/BBL in May of 2015. Historically, Crude oil reached an all time high of 145.31 in July of 2008 and a record low of 1.17 in February of 1946. Bull Markets in Oil tend to be short, whereas Bear Markets last 11 to 28 Years. So far we are in the 8th year (HERE). |
SPX | Narrowest 2 Year Percent Range of Monthly Closes
Credits: Nautilus Research |
Tom McClellan: "Such low volume episodes are typically followed by uptrends. Exceptions noted." Credits: Tom McClellan |