Monday, September 15, 2025

Bitcoin FLD Trading Opportunity with 8% Potential | David Hickson

The daily Bitcoin chart below is dated September 15 (Mon), with price near $114.5k. A 20-week cycle trough was identified on September 1 (Mon), which means 14 days have passed since then. The average length of a 20-day cycle is about 17.1 days, and we are approaching the expected timing for the next 20-day cycle trough. The nest of lows at the foot of the chart suggests that a 20-day cycle trough is likely to occur around September 18–19 (Thu-Fri).

20-week cycle trough confirmed on September 1 (Mon). Next 20-day cycle trough expected 
around September 18–19 (Thu-Fri). With the 20-week, 80-day, and 40-day cycles all
pushing up, upside targets are $120K+ by early October

Our main tool here is the 20-day cycle FLD. Price has already crossed above this FLD twice, producing a somewhat messy A-category interaction. The target from that interaction was achieved early on Friday, slightly exceeded, as expected after a 20-week trough. Now, price is dropping toward the next 20-day cycle trough. At that time, we expect it to find support at the 20-day FLD at around 112k. 
 
This creates the trading opportunity: If price finds support at the 20-day FLD when the 20-day trough forms, we can look for a long entry. The sequence of price interactions with the 20-day FLD has a 62.5% accuracy rating, making it a reliable setup. Why? There is bullish pressure: Bitcoin is rising out of a 20-week trough, with the 20-week, 80-day, and 40-day cycles all pushing upward. For different entry options, watch the 7-minute video (link below). 
 
See also: 

How to Divide the Yearly Time Period | W.D. Gann

The average of stocks and many of the individual stocks make important bottoms and tops according to the Seasonal Changes, which are as follows:

The Winter Quarter begins December 22nd, and 15 days from this date is January 5th and 6th, which are always important dates to watch at the beginning of each year, as stocks often make extreme high or extreme low around these dates and a change in trend takes place. 
 
According to Kepler's Second Law, the line connecting the Earth and the Sun sweeps out equal areas in equal times,
causing the Earth to move faster when closer to the Sun and slower when farther away (Law of Equal Areas).
Adding 180 solar degrees to the major low in US stocks on April 7 (Mon) points to a high on October 6 (Mon). 

When stocks make low in December, just before or just after the 22nd, a January rise usually follows. Dividends are paid on the first of January, and people buy for the dividends, which brings about a rally which often culminates around the 3rd to 7th. However, in some years, the January advance lasts until around the 20th to 21st.

February 5th is 45 days from December 22nd, and minor changes often take place around this date and, sometimes, very important tops and bottoms are reached.
March 21st is 90 days from December 22nd. This is the date when the Sun crosses the equator and Spring begins. The Spring rally in the stock market often starts around this date or culminates if stocks have been advancing previous to this date.
May 6th is 46 days from March 21st or 135 days from December 22nd and equals the 135° angle. Watch for important change in trend around this date.
June 22nd is 93 days from March 21st, which equals 90°, and, of course, it is opposite December 22nd and is important for seasonal change, as Summer begins at this date.
July 7th is 15 days from June 22nd and six months or 180 days from January 7th. July being a dividend month, advances or declines often culminates around this date, and an important change in trend often takes place. It is the next important date to watch after June 22nd.
  August 8th is 47 days from June 22nd, but the Sun has only moved 45°, which equals the 45° angle. This is a very important date for change in trend, and you should watch stocks that make tops and bottoms around this date.
September 23rd is 93 days from June 22nd, but the Earth or Sun has only travel 90°. The Sun crosses the equator at this time and is 180° or opposite the point where it crosses the equator on March 21st. Fall begins at this date, and stocks make important changes in trend.
 
Dates at 45°, 90°, 135°, 180°, 225°, 270°, and 315° solar degrees from the Vernal Equinox (0° Aries) are what Gann called 'Natural Trading Days,' with 225° representing 0.618 of the solar year (November 7). Though 15°, 22.5° and 45° also may coincide with changes in trend, Gann stressed the importance of the cardinal points (90° apart). He also used multiples of 90° and 144°, i.e., 90°, 180°, 270°, etc., and 144°, 288°, 432°, 576°, 720°, etc. 

Divide the year by 2 to get 6 months, the opposition point or 180° angle, which equals 26 weeks.
Divide the year by 4 to get the 3 months’ period or 90 days or 90° each, which is 1/4 of a year or 13 weeks.
Divide the year by 3 to get the 4 months’ period, the 120° angle, which is 1/3 of a year or 17-1/3 weeks.
Divide the year by 8, which gives 1½ months, 45 days and equals the 45° angle. 
   This is also 6½ weeks, which shows why the 7th week is always so important.
Divide the year by 16, which gives 22½ days or approximately 3 weeks. 
   This accounts for market movements that only run 3 weeks up or down and then reverse. 
 

As a general rule, when any stock closes higher the 4th consecutive week, it will go higher. The 5th week is also very important for a change in trend, and for fast moves up or down. The 5th is the day, week, month, or year of Ascension and always marks fast moves up or down, according to the major cycle that is running out.

Forecasting Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Moves | W.D. Gann

Monthly moves can be determined by the same rules as yearly: Add three months to important bottom, then add 4, making 7, to get minor bottoms and reaction points.

W.D. Gann's natal chart for coffee.
 
In big upswings a reaction will often not last over two months, the third month being up, the same rule as in yearly cycle –2 down and the third up.
 
In extreme markets, a reaction sometimes only lasts 2 or 3 weeks; then the advance is resumed. In this way a market may continue up for 12 months without breaking a monthly bottom.

In a bull market, the minor trend may reverse and run down 3 to 4 months; then turned up and follow the main trend again.

In a bear market, the minor trend may run up to 3 to 4 months, then reverse and follow the main trend, although, as a general rule, stocks never rally more than 2 months in a bear market; then start to break in the 3rd month and follow the main trend down.
 
» When a stock sells on the 180th day, week or month, it is on the degree of its time angle. « 
W.D. Gann, November 1935.

WEEKLY MOVES
The weekly movement gives the next important minor change in trend, which may turn out to be a major change in trend.

In a bull market, a stock will often run down 2 to 3 weeks, and possibly 4, then reverse and follow the main trend again. As a rule, the trend will turn up in the middle of the third week and close higher at the end of the third week, the stock only moving 3 weeks against the main trend. In some cases, the change in trend will not occur until the fourth week; then the reversal will come and the stock close higher at the end of the fourth week. Reverse this rule in a bear market.

In rapid markets with big volume, a move will often run 6 to 7 weeks before a minor reversal in trend, and in some cases, like 1929, these fast moves last 13 to 15 weeks or 1/4 of a year. These are culmination moves up or down.

As there are 7 days in a week and seven times seven equals 49 days or 7 weeks, this often marks an important turning point. Therefore, you should watch for top or bottom around the 49th to 52nd day, although at times a change will start on the 42nd to 45th day, because a period of 45 days is 1/8 of a year. Also watch for culminations at the end of 90 to 98 days.

After a market has declined 7 weeks, it may have 2 or 3 short weeks on the side and then turn up, which agrees with the monthly rule for a change in the third month.
 
Always watch the annual trend of a stock and consider whether it is in a bull or bear year. In a bull year, with the monthly chart showing up, there are many times that a stock will react 2 or 3 weeks, then rest 3 or 4 weeks, and then go into new territory and advance 6 to 7 weeks more.
 
After a stock makes top and reacts 2 to 3 weeks, it may then have a rally of 2 to 3 weeks without getting above the first top; then hold in a trading range for several weeks without crossing the highest top or breaking the lowest week of that range. In cases of this kind, you can buy near the low point or sell near the high point of that range and protect with a stop loss order 1 to 3 points away. However, a better plan would be to wait until the stock shows a definite trend before buying or selling; then buy the stock when it crosses the highest point or sell when it breaks the lowest point of that trading range.
 
DAILY MOVES
The daily movement gives the first minor change and conforms to the same rules as the weekly and monthly cycles, although it is only a minor part of them.

In fast markets, and there will only be a 2-day move in the opposite direction to the main trend and on the third day the upward or downward course will be resumed in harmony with the main trend.
 
A daily movement may reverse trend and only run 7 to 10 days; then follow the main trend again. During a month, natural changes in trend occur around
 
6th to 7th       14th to 15th    23rd to 24th
9th to 10th    19th to 20th    29th to 31st
 
These minor moves occur in accordance with tops and bottoms of individual stocks.
 

It is very important to watch for a change in trend 30 days from the last top or bottom. Then watch for changes 60, 90, 120 days from tops or bottoms. 180 days or six months –very important and sometimes marks changes for greater moves. Also around the 270th and 330th day from important tops or bottoms, you should watch for important minor and often major changes.
 
JANUARY 2nd to 7th AND 15th to 21st
Watch these periods each year and note the high and low prices made. Until these high prices are crossed or low prices broken, consider the trend up or down.
Many times when stocks make low in the early part of January, this low will not be broken until the following July or August, and sometimes not during the entire year. This same rule applies in bear markets or when the main trend is down. High prices made in the early part of January are often high for the entire year and are not crossed until after July or August. 
For example: U. S. Steel on January 2, 1930, made a low at 166, which was the half-way point from 1921 to 1929, and again on January 7, 1930 declined to 167¼. When this level was broken, Steel indicated lower prices.

JULY 3rd to 7th AND 20th to 27th
The month of July, like January, is a month when most dividends are paid and investors usually buy stocks around the early part of the month. Watch these periods in July for tops or bottoms and the change in trend. Go back over the charts and see how many times changes have taken place in July, 180 days from January tops or bottoms. For example: July 8, 1932 was low; July 17, 1933, high; and July 26, 1934 low of the market.
 
 
 
See also:

The 10-Year Cycle | W.D. Gann

Stocks move in 10-year cycles, which are worked out in 5-year cycles – a 5-year cycle up and a 5-year cycle down. Begin with extreme tops and extreme bottoms to figure all cycles, either major or minor.

 
Rule 1 - A bull campaign generally runs 5 years – 2 years up, 1 year down, and 2 years up, completing a 5-year cycle. The end of a 5-year campaign comes in the 59th or 60th months. Always watch for the change in the 59th month.

Rule 2 - A bear cycle often runs 5 years down – the first move 2 years down, then 1 year up, and 2 years down, completing the 5-year downswing.

Rule 3 - Bull or Bear campaigns seldom run more than 3 to 3½ years up or down without a move of 3 to 6 months or one year in the opposite direction, except at the end of Major Cycles, like 1869 and 1929. Many campaigns, culminate in the 23rd month, not running out the full two years. Watch the weekly and monthly charts to determine whether the culmination will occur in the 23rd, 24th, 27th or 30th month of the move, or in extreme campaigns in the 34th to 35th or 41st to 42nd month.

Rule 4 - Adding 10 years to any top, it will give you top of the next 10-year cycle, repeating about the same average fluctuations.

Rule 5 - Adding 10 years to any bottom, it will give you the bottom of the next 10-year cycle, repeating the same kind of a year and about the same average fluctuations.

Rule 6 - Bear campaigns often run out in 7-year cycles, or 3 years and 4 years from any completed bottom. From any complete bottom of a cycle, first add 3 years to get the next bottom; then add 4 years to that bottom to get bottom of 7-year cycle. For example: 1914 bottom – add 3 years, gives 1917, low of panic; then add 4 years to 1917, gives 1921, low of another depression.

Rule 7 - To any final major or minor top, add 3 years to get the next top; then add 3 years to that top, which will give you the third top; add 4 years to the third top to get the final top of the 10-year cycle. Sometimes a change in trend from any top occurs before the end of the regular time period, therefore, you should begin to watch the 27th, 34th, and 42nd month for a reversal.

Rule 8 - Adding 5 years to any top, it will give the next bottom of a 5-year cycle. In order to get top of the next 5-year cycle, add 5 years to any bottom. For example: 1917 was bottom of a big bear campaign; add 5 years gives 1922, top of a minor bull campaign. Why do I say, “Top of a minor bull campaign?” Because the major bull campaign was due to end in 1929.

1919 was top; adding 5 years to 1919 gives 1924 as bottom of a 5-year bear cycle. Refer to Rules 1 and 2, which tell you that a bull or bear campaign seldom runs more than 2 to 3 years in the same direction. The bear campaign from 1919 was 2 years down – 1920 and 1921; therefore, we only expect one-year rally in 1922; then 2 years down – 1923 and 1924, which completes a 5-year bear cycle.

»
The ten-year cycle continues to repeat, but the greatest advances and declines occur at the end of the 20-year and 30-year cycles, and again at the end of the 50-year and 60-year cycles, which are stronger than the others. «
Looking back to 1913 and 1914, you will see that 1923 and 1924 must be bear years to complete the 10-year cycle from the bottoms of 1913-1914. Then note 1917 bottom of the bear year; adding 7 years gives 1924 also as bottom of a bear cycle. Then, adding 5 years to 1924 gives 1929 top of a cycle.
 
 
 
See also: 

Major Time Cycles in the Stock Market | W.D. Gann

There must always be a major and a minor, a greater and a lesser, a positive and a negative. In order to be accurate in forecasting the future, you must know the major cycles. The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles. I have experimented and compared past markets in order to locate the major and minor cycles and determined in what years the cycles repeat in the future. After years of research and practical tests, I have discovered that the following cycles are most reliable to use:
 
GREAT CYCLE - MASTER TIME PERIOD - 60 YEARS
This is the greatest and most important cycle of all, which repeats every 60 years or at the end  of the third 20-year cycle. You will see the importance of this by referring to the war period from 1861 to 1869 and the panic following 1869; also 60 years later – 1921 to 1929 – the greatest bull market in history and the greatest panic in history followed. This proves the accuracy and value of this great time period.

Schumpeter’s model of economic cycles illustrated how shorter-term cycles combine to produce long waves. Specifically, he integrated Kitchin cycles (short business cycles lasting approximately 3–5 years) and Juglar cycles (medium-term investment cycles of 7–11 years), with three Kitchin cycles nested within each Juglar cycle. While Schumpeter also discussed Kuznets cycles (spanning 15–25 years), these were not included in the charts above. The charts focus on the interaction between Kitchin and Juglar cycles, showing how their interplay contributes to the formation of long waves lasting about 56 years. According to Schumpeter’s framework, a typical long wave consists of 18 business cycles.
50-YEAR CYCLE
A major cycle occurs every 49 to 50 years. A period of "jubilee" years of extreme high or low prices, lasting from 5 to 7 years, occurs at the end of the 50-year cycle. "7" is a fatal number referred to many times in the Bible. It brings about contraction, depression and panics. Seven times "7" equals 49, which is shown as the fatal evil year, causing extreme 
fluctuations.

30-YEAR CYCLE
The 30 year cycle is very important because it is one-half of the 60-year cycle or Great Cycle and contains three 10-year cycles. In making up an annual forecast of a stock, you should always make a comparison with the record 30 years back.


20-YEAR CYCLE

One of the most important Time Cycles is the 20-year cycle or 240 months. Most stocks and the averages work closer to this cycle than to any other. Refer to the analysis of "20-year Forecasting Chart" given later.

15-YEAR CYCLE
Fifteen years is three-fourths of a 20-year cycle and most important because it is 180 months or one-half of a circle.

10-YEAR CYCLE
The next important major cycle is the 10-year cycle, which is one-half of the 20-year cycle and one-sixth of the 60-year cycle. It is also very important because it is 120 months or one third of a circle. Fluctuations of the same nature occur which produce extreme high or low every 10 years. Stocks come out remarkably close on each even 10-year cycle.

7-YEAR CYCLE
This cycle is 84 months. You should watch 7 years from any important top and bottom. 42 months or one-half of this cycle is very important. You will find many combinations around the 42nd month. 21 months or 1/4 of this cycle is also important. The fact that some stocks make top or bottom 10 to 11 months from the previous top or bottom is due to the fact that this period is 1/8 of the 7-year cycle.

5-YEAR CYCLE
The cycle is very important because it is one-half of the 10-year cycle and 1/4 of the 20-year cycle. The smallest complete cycle or work-out in a market is 5 years.
 
In Four-Dimensional Stock Market Structures and Cycles, Bradley F. Cowan identified the Saturn 5-Year cycle using data back to the 1700’s. This chart used CycleTimer to automatically calculate that cycle anchored at the March 2000 top in the NASDAQ. The middle chart zooms in on the 2009-2014 5-Year Saturn cycle and adds Cowan’s 5-Year Venus-Earth cycle. The bottom chart zooms in further on the top using daily data.
MINOR CYCLES
The minor cycles are 3 years and 6 years. The smallest cycle is one year, which often shows a change in the 10th or 11th month.
 
84-YEAR CYCLE
There is an 84-year cycle, which is 12 times the 7-year cycle, that is very important to watch. One-half of the cycle is 42 years – 1/4 is 21 years, and 1/8 is 10½ years. This is one of the reasons for the period of nearly 11 years between the bottom of August ,1921 and the bottom of July, 1932. A variation of this kind often occurs at the end of a Great Cycle or 60 years. Bottoms and tops often come out on the angle of 135° or around the 135th month or 11¼-year period from any important top or bottom.
 

Sunday, September 14, 2025

40-Week Cycle Blow-Off Top Target for the S&P 500 | Branimir Vojcic

The chart below shows 20-week and 40-week cycle price projections for  S&P 500. Getting to the 7,200 area +/- may satisfy both targets. The black trendline resistance will get into the 40-week cycle target range late this year.

40-Week Cycle Blow-Off Top Target for the S&P 500 (daily bars) 7,200 +/-.
40-Week Cycle Blow-Off Top Target for the S&P 500 (daily bars) 
7,200 +/-.
 
Cycle price projections are fully satisfied about 70% of the time. The probability of approaching them without fully satisfying them is considerably higher. However, this is not the time to be complacent as the stock market is most overvalued in more than 100 years.

Nasdaq-100 Index (weekly bars) - Long-Term Elliott Wave Count, and Blow-Off Top Targets.
 
The green rectangles depict blowoff top targets for Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) for 20-week and 40-week cycles. The black count is preferred in which Primary wave 5, circle-5, will take the form of an ending diagonal, ideally into the green targets. The blue count is an alternative ending diagonal. In this count, NDX is now completing wave B of (4) with C expected in 2026 and (5) in late 2027 or early 2028.

The completion of circle-5 this year or in 2027/28 will mark the top of cycle degree wave V and super-cycle degree (III). Super-cycle (IV) can take about 15-20 years. Cycle a is expected in the early 2030s, then a bounce in cycle b, and then cycle c of (IV) in about mid-2040s. A typical retracement for (IV) is in the range of IV, i.e., the fourth wave of one lesser degree. That’s the long-term picture. The focus in the next twelve months will be on nailing the pending top and a cycle trough expected in mid-2026, +/-, which should be black circle-A or blue (4).

traded fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of the financial sector within the S&P 500.
 
Rally still has room toward 6,700 (log 61.8%), even 6,800 (100% W1) in blow-off top scenario.

40-week cycle peak in late September to early October will mark a long-term market top.

See also:

Friday, September 12, 2025

Defeating the Enemy Without Fighting | Henry Kissinger

Rarely did Chinese statesmen risk the outcome of a conflict on a single all-or-nothing clash; elaborate multiyear maneuvers were closer to their style. Where the Western tradition prized the decisive clash of forces emphasizing feats of heroism, the Chinese ideal stressed subtlety, indirection, and the patient accumulation of relative advantage.

This contrast is reflected in the respective intellectual games favored by each civilization. China’s most enduring game is wei qi (圍棋, pronounced roughly “way chee,” and often known in the West by a variation of its Japanese name, go). Wei qi translates as “a game of surrounding pieces”; it implies a concept of strategic encirclement. 

The outcome of a Wei Qi game between two expert players.
Black has won by a slight margin.
David Lai (2004) - Learning from the Stones: A Go Approach to Mastering China’s Strategic Concept, Shi.
Carlisle, PA: US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute.

The board, a grid of nineteen-by-nineteen lines, begins empty. Each player has 180 pieces, or stones, at his disposal, each of equal value with the others
. The players take turns placing stones at any point on the board, building up positions of strength while working to encircle and capture the opponent’s stones. Multiple contests take place simultaneously in different regions of the board. The balance of forces shifts incrementally with each move, as the players implement strategic plans and react to each other’s initiatives. At the end of a well-played game, the board is filled by partially interlocking areas of strength. The margin of advantage is often slim, and to the untrained eye, the identity of the winner is not always immediately obvious.

Chess, on the other hand, is about total victory. The purpose of the game is checkmate, to put the opposing king into a position where he cannot move without being destroyed. The vast majority of games end in total victory achieved by attrition or, more rarely, a dramatic, skillful maneuver. The only other possible outcome is a draw, meaning the abandonment of the hope for victory by both parties.

If chess is about the decisive battle, wei qi is about the protracted campaign. The chess player aims for total victory. The wei qi player seeks relative advantage. In chess, the player always has the capability of the adversary in front of him; all the pieces are always fully deployed.

» Ultimate excellence lies not in winning every battle but in defeating the enemy without ever fighting.
The highest form of warfare is to attack the enemy’s strategy itself. «
The Art of War, Sun Tzu.

The wei qi player needs to assess not only the pieces on the board but the reinforcements the adversary is in a position to deploy. Chess teaches the Clausewitzian concepts of “center of gravity” and the “decisive point”—the game usually beginning as a struggle for the center of the board. Wei qi teaches the art of strategic encirclement. Where the skillful chess player aims to eliminate his opponent’s pieces in a series of head-on clashes, a talented wei qi player moves into “empty” spaces on the board, gradually mitigating the strategic potential of his opponent’s pieces. Chess produces single-mindedness; wei qi generates strategic flexibility.

A similar contrast exists in the case of China’s distinctive military theory (中国军事思想). Its foundations were laid during a period of upheaval, when ruthless struggles between rival kingdoms decimated China’s population. Reacting to this slaughter (and seeking to emerge victorious from it), Chinese thinkers developed strategic thought that placed a premium on victory through psychological advantage and preached the avoidance of direct conflict.
 
» US imperialism is a paper tiger. «
 Mao Zedong, July 14, 1956.
 
On his secret mission to establish a US-China alliance against the Soviet Union, US National Security
 Advisor Henry Kissinger meets with Zhou Enlai (Premier of the PRC since 1949) in Beijing on July 9, 1971.
 
Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party Mao Zedong (founding leader of the PRC since 1949)
welcomes President of the United States Richard Nixon (1969-1974) in Beijing on February 21, 1972.
 
Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China (since 2013), invites
94-year-old former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger to Beijing on July 19, 2017. 
 
The seminal figure in this tradition is known to history as Sun Tzu (or “Master Sun”), author of the famed treatise The Art of War. Intriguingly, no one is sure exactly who he was. Since ancient times, scholars have debated the identity of The Art of War’s author and the date of its composition. The book presents itself as a collection of sayings by one Sun Wu, a general and wandering military advisor from the  Spring and Autumn period of Chinese history (770–476 B.C. ), as recorded by his disciples.

[…] Well over two thousand years after its composition, this volume of epigrammatic observations on strategy, diplomacy, and war—written in classical Chinese, halfway between poetry and prose—remains a central text of military thought. Its maxims found vivid expression in the twentieth-century Chinese civil war 
(人民战争) at the hands of Sun Tzu’s student Mao Zedong, and in the Vietnam wars, as Ho Chi Minh and Vo Nguyen Giap employed Sun Tzu’s principles of indirect attack and psychological combat (逸待劳) against France and then the United States.