S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Presidential Election Cycle 2024 - 2027

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Presidential Election Cycle 2024 - 2027.
4 Year Presidential Cycle in line with the Decennial Cycle.

The chart above is an attempt to merge the Decennial Cycle with the Four-Year Presidential Election Cycle by creating a composite of all US presidential elections that took place since 1900 in the fourth year of a decade (1904, 1924, 1944, 1964, 1984, 2004). 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Election Year 2024.

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for Q4 of the Election Year 2024.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for October of the Election Year 2024.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for November of the Election Year 2024.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for December of the Election Year 2024.

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Post-Election Year 2025.

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for Q1 of the Post-Election Year 2025.

Cross check dates with historical trends, price probabilities, news calendar, Hurst cycles, etc.

The four-year presidential election cycle has a profound impact on the economy and the stock market, with a distinct pattern emerging over time. Notably, the four-year cycle has become a more significant driver of market behavior than the decennial cycle, except in extraordinary years such as those ending in five and eight. In recent decades, the US has experienced a period of unprecedented prosperity, with returns distributed relatively evenly across the decade. Fourth years, in particular, have tended to perform better than average. Looking back, the last six election years ending in four (2004, 1984, 1964, 1944, 1924, and 1904) the S&P 500 averaged a full-year gain of 14%.

 Decennial Cycle: Average annual change in the DJIA (1881-2023).

The 5th year is by far the best year of the decennial cycle. In the Dow Jones Industrial Average out of the last 14 "5th years", 12 were up averaging a return of 26% per year. The only two 5th years that have ever been negative in the history of the DJIA were 2005 (-0.61%) and 2015 (-2.2%).

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025. 

TPR - Seasonality.

Famine - Another Globalist Recipe for the Demise of Europe | Lucas Leiroz

Selling grain, meat, dairy products and everything that is produced in the countryside seems to be no longer an attractive business in Europe. Since 2022, protests for change have been taking place in all parts of the European continent. From Poland to France, no European farmer is happy to see his products being replaced on the market by massive quantities of cheap Ukrainian agricultural items. This is due to the irrational decision of European decision-makers to ban all import tariffs on Ukrainian food products. The measure is allegedly intended to boost the Ukrainian economy during the crisis caused by the conflict with Russia – which ironically is sponsored by the West itself. In the current European market, it is cheaper to import Ukrainian food than to resell the native products, which is obviously causing thousands of farmers to abandon their businesses.

» And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, 

and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine. « 

The Book of Revelation 6:6

As well known, most of Europe does not have a very strong agricultural sector, with local farmers relying on government aid to stay active in the market. Without this aid and with the invasion of Ukrainian products, it is simply no longer profitable to be part of European agribusiness, which is why thousands of people are likely to stop working in the rural areas and join the growing class of the European “precariat”. At first, some analysts may see this scenario as a mere market shift, replacing European production with Ukrainian production. However, this analysis is limited. Despite having some of the most fertile soils in the world, Ukraine is currently a target of Western financial predators, who demand the handover of arable land as a means of payment for NATO’s billion-dollar aid packages. Organizations such as Blackrock and other funds will soon own almost all that is left of Ukraine’s “black soil.” And then Ukrainian agricultural production will depend on the willingness of the “financial sharks” to feed the Europeans.

Cull the many, save the few: the globalist's eugenicist cult mantra, 

etched in stone on the Georgia Guidestones.

It is true that the lack of food self-sufficiency in European countries is not a new problem. Imports are already a vital mechanism for all of Western Europe. But parallel to the dependence on imports, there is also the irrational policy of sanctions and coercive measures against several emerging food-producing countries. The Russian Federation, for example, is prohibited from selling anything to Europeans, but the problem is even greater. The EU has been considering for years imposing severe sanctions on Brazil, for example, alleging “environmental irregularities”. It will get to the point where the EU’s “humanitarian and environmental” requirements will prevent Europeans from buying anything from any country.

 » Europe faces one of the bleakest futures in human history. «

If we ask who is interested in this whole scenario, the answer will once again seem clear. There is only one country encouraging Europe to impose more and more sanctions, buy more and more Ukrainian grain and send more and more weapons to Kiev under payment terms regulated by Blackrock. Of course, this is the same country that boycotted Russian-European energy cooperation and committed the terrorist attack on Nord Stream. And certainly this is also the only state interested in maintaining the geopolitical status quo and preventing the creation of a multipolar world, where Europeans would have freedom of alignment and could pragmatically choose their partners. The US-EU alliance is a real time bomb and in the long run it will lead Europe to famine. Already in the process of deindustrialization, energy crisis and destroying its entire food security architecture, Europe faces one of the bleakest futures in human history. And almost all European decision-makers seem happy with this scenario.

Quoted from:

Lucas Leiroz (September 28, 2024) - Famine in Europe: the real goal of anti-Russian policies. 

 

See also:

Eva Vlaardingerbroek (2024) - The Great Replacement - Europe has fallen.
J. Bart Classen (2024) - COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines are Mossad Bioweapons developed in the US.
Dennis L. Meadows (2023) - For A Peaceful Mass Extinction.

RAND Corporation (2022) - Crush Europe and Strengthen the US.

1986-2024 S&P 500 Index Analog Projection into Early December

On a day to day basis the analog between S&P 500 closing prices of 1986 and 2024 had a 95% positive correlation over the past 180 trading days, which is the period since the beginning of 2024. Of course, only time will tell whether this correlation continues. With that in mind, the analog projects the upcoming swing highs and lows for the month of October to be more or less in line with Jeff Hirsch's average seasonal chart for October in election years: From the latest all-time high of September 26, the next swing low is projected to occur on October 9 (Wed), followed by a high on October 18 (Fri), and a potentially lower low around October 23-25 (Wed-Fri). Then a rally is expected to occur into November 29 (Fri). Note that in this context, direction is more important than price levels. The average S&P 500 return during October was slightly positive between 1950 and 2023, with 45 up years and 29 down years, and an average return of 0.75%.

Seth Golden is extremely optimistic about 2025: "From September 2023 to September 2024, the S&P 500 has been up greater than 30%. Historically, when the S&P 500 >25% over the trailing 12 months or more into a rate cut, stocks have NEVER been lower a year later and up close to +20% on average. There is no soft landing if there is no landing at all in 2025, and by all accounts the setup is clear!"  

 

A potential fly in the ointment for all of the above bullish outlook is Sergey Tarassov's long-term cycle analysis. He suggested that the 41-month Kitchin Cycle in US stocks would peak between June and October 2024, and be followed by a decline into December 2025-January 2026.  

 

That said, from a narrower medium-term Hurst cycle perspective, August 5 marked the low of a 40-week cycle. The market is now trending upward toward the next 40 week cycle's peak, and the last quarter of 2024 may very well conclude with new all-time highs.

Hypocrisies and Projections of a House Negro | UK FM David Lammy

 

 » What's the matter, boss, we sick? «

UK FM David Lammy, at the High-Level UN Security Council Meeting on Ukraine

— September 25, 2024.

 

 

 Malcolm X: The House Negro and the Field Negro — 1965.

 

 » Retire, and beg yourself for forgiveness.« 

— Scott Ritter, September 26, 2024.

 

Reference:

UK Foreign Minister Lammy’s Full Address at the High-Level UN Security Council Meeting on Ukraine
 — September 25, 2024.

Looming US Supply Chains Shock in October 2024 | Lena Petrova

A devastating supply chain crisis is looming in the US, with 85,000 dock workers at 36 ports planning to start their strike on October 1st, demanding better pay and work conditions. This would impact 45-49% of US imports, affecting the entire country's port volume by over 40%. The strike would shut down five of the ten busiest ports in North America, including New York and New Jersey, which are already preparing for the strike. The strike is expected to cause shortages and delays, including retail, automotive, semiconductors, medicine and essentials, and a rise in prices due to consistent demand. A similar 11-day strike in 2002 caused the US economy to lose close to $1 billion daily and resulted in six months worth of backlogs.

 
US prepares for October Surprises.

Trade groups representing retailers, restaurants, and manufacturers are urging the administration to reverse its position, fearing severe economic impact. The International Monetary Fund warns of global trade fragmentation, making supply chains more vulnerable to disruptions. The situation is critical, with 25,000 workers prepared to strike, and negotiations between the union and US Maritime Alliance at a standstill. The White House has stated it will not prevent labor action at the ports. A strike would have long-term effects on the US economy, and its timing, just weeks prior to the November presidential elections, raises additional concerns.

Reference:

Lena Petrova (September 25, 2024) - Nearly 50% of ALL US Imports to Halt Due to Massive Port Strikes on October 1st. (video)

Who Is Fighting With Whom and Why | Alexander Dugin

Israel, having dealt with Gaza, that is, having organized a mass genocide of the civilian population in front of the whole world, began a full-fledged war with Lebanon. Just as in Gaza the Israelis preferred to claim that they were fighting Hamas, and not the Palestinians as a whole (as was actually the case), so now Netanyahu is talking about countering Hezbollah, having started massive rocket attacks and carpet bombing of the civilian population of a sovereign country - Lebanon. This is a war in the fullest sense of the word. And the West fully supports Israel's aggression.

  » He demands victory over the civilizational enemy. He demands that Carthage be destroyed. «

 

At the same time, the West wants to secure the full loyalty of its allies in the Islamic world and is now trying to create a Middle Eastern analogue of NATO with the UAE. Türkiye is already in NATO, but Ankara is outraged by Israel and traditionally supports Hamas, so the ally is not very reliable. Hence the globalists came up with the idea of ​​​​attracting Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to a tough military alliance. Iran is still on the sidelines, but the start of a massive aggressive military campaign against Hezbollah is a direct attack on Iran and the Shiite world as a whole. The second front after the Ukrainian one between unipolar hegemony and strengthening multipolarity can be considered open. The West is fighting Russia with the hands of Ukrainian Nazis, and the Shiites with the hands of Israeli Nazis. And it is ready to start a war with China with the hands of Taiwanese Nazis. Simultaneously, NATO is going to throw additional European armies at Russia, Sunni armies at Iran and Lebanon, and insure Taiwan with an alliance with India, Japan, and South Korea. If all this is not the third world war, then what is it?

 

The situation in world politics is increasingly converging with the classic maps of geopolitics. Now the confrontation between the Civilization of the Sea and the Civilization of Land is so clear and contrasting that underestimating geopolitical science is fraught with direct catastrophe. Only geopolitics explains everything clearly and intelligibly. Who is fighting with whom and why. And where is the intermediate frontier separating civilizations and camps. It was geopolitics that could have prevented the collapse of the USSR, while the ideological approach led to the collapse of a great power, did not work at a critical moment. In the 1990s, the agents of Western influence, which almost established external control over Russia, were hiding behind the economy and reforms. They were the ones who made efforts to discredit geopolitics. And this was fatal, and NATO expanded to the East unhindered. In the USA, geopolitics was studied and acted strictly according to its patterns, but we were forbidden. Instead of geopolitical thought, moral decay, predatory enrichment, poisonous humor and mass feeble mindedness were implanted in Russia.

 

  Carl Schmitt (1942) - Land and Sea: A World-Historical Meditation.

 

Putin was the first to pay attention to geopolitics. And Russia began to see the light. That is, to understand more soberly what was really happening in international relations. But it was not easy to get out from under the hypnosis of liberals, economists and Westerners. It took time. The Russian authorities only really began to understand the laws and rules of geopolitics with the start of the New World Order. And not all of them. Putin, of course. But even in the education system of the Ministry of Defense, geopolitics is not given its due place. Yes, some idea of ​​it is given now, but very approximate. But it should not be like that: all military personnel, especially the officer corps, should definitely be familiar with the basics of geopolitics and pass the geopolitical minimum. The same applies to the entire managerial elite of the country. Yes, geopolitics is taught in many universities. But it should be taught in all of them and with an emphasis on it. It compactly and simply explains the world in which we live and the meaning of the war we are waging.
 

Putin once answered a question at the Valdai Club from Chinese professor Feng Shaolei about the basis on which he makes his main decisions: on the basis of geopolitics. The Chinese have heard this answer, the Russians have not. But they should. I am convinced that what is needed now, along with historical education, is mass geopolitical education. Following the military, the employees of the Presidential Administration and the Government must pass the geopolitical minimum, and then from top to bottom, right down to the governors and their staff, and all strategically important departments and ministries through and through. It will not take much time. A couple of textbooks and a short test of 10-12 questions. Only then will it become truly clear what the Supreme Ruler demands of them. And he demands victory over the civilizational enemy - outside and inside, or at least the creation of prerequisites for it. Victory of the Civilization of the Land (Third Rome) over the Civilization of the Sea (New Carthage). He demands that Carthage be destroyed, and geopolitics clearly explains why.

Quoted from:
Alexander Dugin via Telegram — September 23, 2024.

See also:
Alexander Dugin (2019) - Geopolitics: Theories, Concepts, Schools, and Debates.

Alexander Dugin (1997) - The Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia.

S&P 500 Election Year Pattern during Fourth Years of a Decade, 1904 - 2024

Seasonal Pattern of the S&P 500 in U.S. Election Years during Fourth Years of a Decade (1904-2024): Composite Line of Election Years (1904, 1924, 1944, 1964, 1984, and 2004; based on daily closes from Stooq) vs. S&P 500 Performance from January 1 to September 27, 2024 (y-axis scale: percentages).

Same values with different scaling of the y-axis.

See also:

Wayne Whaley (September 21, 2024) - S&P 500 in Q4 After New 12-Month High in September.

Tom McClellan (March 29, 2024) - Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for US Stock Market.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2020) - Election-Year October Market Performance Volatile since 1950.

2016 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA — January 5, 2016.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.

Israel’s Reckless Pager Operation: Who Can We Trust And Rely On? | Shen Yi

I've been studying international relations and politics for decades, and I'm shocked by this pager attack in Lebanon. This is not something a normal country would do; it's way past the moral red line of international norms. What we're looking at is a commercial electronic device, the pager, being modified into a military-style mini-grenade. Even though the operation targets Hezbollah members, the action is equivalent to igniting several cluster bombs in a market populated with Hezbollah members, their families, and other innocent civilians.

 » This is truly evil and shocking ... they've proven themselves willing to do outrageous, immoral things. «

Shen Yi, Director at Research Center for the Governance of Global Cyberspace, Fudan University.

 

The psychological effect of this operation is similar to the earliest Batman movie, where the Joker randomly poisoned hygiene products to create chaos in Gotham City. This isn't even using the pager to collect intel and destroy evidence. This can be considered a mass terrorist operation. It's like putting poison in bottled water and exporting it to your enemy city, expecting enemy soldiers to drink it, and disregarding innocent victims, oh well, sucks to be them.

 » Children lost their eyes while playing in the street. Mothers lost their limbs while shopping in a mall.
Doctors suffered severe injuries while driving to a hospital. This is horror and cruelty beyond imagination. «
China representative to the UN.

Assuming Israel's involvement, considering their current strike against Lebanon, there are two possibilities for this mass bombing. Either the bomb was installed during manufacturing in Taiwan, possibly through a joint operation between Taiwan and Israel, or the middleman modified the device. In China, Jewish people are considered the smartest and most cunning of all the peoples on this planet. Modifying this device into a bomb and activating it in mass volume is truly evil and shocking. However, I also consider this operation stupid and reckless, ignoring consequences and hiding behind the United States. The operation against Iran's nuclear enrichment facility might be within the rules of engagement, but this pager bombing is unacceptable. The United States swapped out hospital devices before the operation, showing awareness. The United States, Israel, and Taiwan governments remain quiet. 

 

How can we trust products from these regions in the future? This has impacted global supply chain trust. China now understands why the US considers Huawei cell phones and network devices national security issues - because they think China is as evil and immoral as they are. The problem isn't technical feasibility; today's technology makes it easy. The problem is who crosses the moral red line. Israel, backed by the United States, has shown willingness to cross it. This is a dangerous psychological barrier. 

 

How will China assure consumers of safety when buying US and Israel products? Shouldn't these products be inspected for tampering, with the US and Israel paying additional costs? This isn't unfair competition; they've proven themselves willing to do outrageous, immoral things. China can't wait until 5,000 Apple cell phones blow up to set up security. Considering the US views China as its biggest rival, China needs its own products, supply chain, communication, and banking systems. It's no longer about Chinese or US-made CPU preferences; it's about foreign entities willing to weaponize devices against you. It's not about faster cell phones; it's about safety. Maybe the quality of some Chinese products still lag behind, but we can tell the world we won't make products that explode intentionally. That should be a new standard. 

 

This chain of events shows that peace, safety, stability, and prosperity - elements of a great society - are rare globally. Many Chinese took these for granted. I believe China should lead promoting peace, growth, and stability around the world.

Quoted from:
Shen Yi (September 21, 2024) - Chinese response to Lebanon Pager Attack. (video)

S&P 500 in Q4 After New 12-Month High in September | Wayne Whaley

On Thursday, September 19, the S&P 500 closed at a new twelve-month high as well as an all-time high. Since 1950, there have been twenty-nine years in which a twelve-month high was set in September.

In those twenty-nine prior cases, the fourth quarter was twenty-four wins and five losses, resulting in an average quarterly gain of 4.17 percent. The weakest period in the fourth quarter, on average, was from October 20 to 27, during which that week experienced twelve one-percent losses and only two gains of over one percent.

 

The sweet spot was from October 27 to December 5, which recorded twenty-five wins and four losses, with three percent moves being fifteen wins and zero losses. The last twenty instances, dating back to 1967, have followed this pattern.

 

Reference:

Wayne Whaley (September 21, 2024) - A New Twelve-Month High in September.

 

 

 

 

William J. O’Neil's Cup & Handle continuation pattern.

See also:

Wayne Whaley (September 14, 2024) - September 19-26 Weakest Seasonal S&P Week of the Year.   

Wayne Whaley (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 17, 2024) - September Quarterly Options Expiration Week Dodgy, Week After Dreadful. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 5, 2024) - S&P 500 September 2024 Seasonality.

S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025 | Jeff Hirsch

We are revising our 15-Year Projection chart. This was first drawn in 2011 when our book Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (Wiley) hit the stores. The projection was based upon, drawn from, years of historical patterns and data. In the years to follow numerous unprecedented events occurred, the Fed held its key lending rate in a range of 0 to 0.25% for an incredible seven years, under took multiple rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and essentially pledged unwavering support for the market. Many other nations and central banks around the world were taking similar or even more aggressive steps to support their own economies and markets. Negative interest rates and negative yields on 10-year bonds are not what we consider normal.
 

 

 

Our current updated projection is illustrated in the red line in the chart. In keeping with the history of market performance in pre-election years and the current trajectory of the indices, it would not surprise us for the market to continue rising through April make new high here in Q2, then pause over the weaker summer months before hitting higher highs toward yearend. Next year promises to be an embattled election year and the likelihood of another significant correction or even a bear market are higher.

 

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 11, 2019) - Super Boom Is Underway!

 

 

 David Hickson: Hurst Cycle Projection for NASDAQ and S&P 500 — September 9, 2024.

 

 Jeffrey A. Hirsch: S&P 500 after Quadruple Witching Week — September 17, 2024.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch: S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for September 2024 — September 5, 2024.

   

Jeffrey A. Hirsch: S&P 500 Seasonal Election Year Pattern for 2024 — February 28, 2024.

 

Robert Miner: S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle — April 25, 2024.

 

 Ned Davis: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2024 — February 2, 2024.

 

Ned Davis: DJIA Presidential Cycle 2024 to 2027 — December 29, 2023. 

 

Ned Davis: Unprecedented Times vs DJIA Election Cycle — August 14, 2024.

 

Nautilus Research: Full View of the S&P 500 Election Cycle — September 1, 2022.

 

  Moore Research: S&P 500 23 Year Seasonal (1997-2019) — January 2, 2020.

Larry Williams: 2024 US Stock Market Outlook — December 15, 2023.

 

 Ned Davis: DJIA Decennial Cycle for 2021-2030 — February 2, 2024.

 

seasonax: DJIA Decennial Cycle & 4 Year Election Cycle — 2024.