DATE: March 24, 2024
Mr. President:
France is reportedly preparing to dispatch a force of some 2,000 troops — roughly a reinforced brigade built around an armored battalion and two mechanized battalions, with supporting logistical, engineering, and artillery troops attached — into Ukraine sometime in the not-so-distant future.
» From a military-technical point of view, we are certainly ready for nuclear war.
This force is purely symbolic, inasmuch as it would have zero survivability in a modern high-intensity conflict of the scope and scale of what is transpiring in Ukraine today. It would not be deployed directly in a conflict zone, but would serve either as (1) a screening force/tripwire to stop Russia’s advance; or (2) a replacement force deployed to a non-active zone to free up Ukrainian soldiers for combat duty. The French Brigade reportedly will be supplemented by smaller units from the Baltic states.
This would be introducing combat troops of a NATO country into a theater of war, making them “lawful targets” under the Law of War. Such units would apparently lack a NATO mandate. In Russia’s view, however, this may be a distinction without a difference. France appears to be betting – naively – that its membership in NATO would prevent Russia from attacking French troops. Rather, it is highly likely that Russia would attack any French/Baltic contingent in Ukraine and quickly destroy/degrade its combat viability.
» In fact, it would be useful for the good of the cause for the restless French to send a few regiments to Neonaziland.
Their systematic destruction would not be the most difficult task, but the most important.
And it will be a good lesson for the rest of Europe's restless cretins. «
In
that case, French President Macron may calculate that, after Russian
attacks on the troops of NATO members – NATO mandate or not – he could
invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter and get the NATO alliance to
intervene. Such intervention would likely take the form of aircraft
operating from NATO nations – and perhaps include interdiction missions
against tactical targets inside Russia.
Doctrinally, and by legal right, Russia’s response would be to launch retaliatory strikes also against targets in NATO countries. If NATO then attacks strategic targets inside Russia, at that point Russia’s nuclear doctrine takes over, and NATO decision-making centers would be hit with nuclear weapons.
» REGULAR TROOPS from France, Germany and Poland have arrived, by rail and air, to Cherkassy, south of Kiev. «
We
do not believe Russia will initiate a nuclear attack against the U.S.,
but rather would leave it up to the United States to decide if it wants
to risk destruction by preparing to launch a nuclear strike on Russia.
That said, Russian strategic forces have improved to the point that, in
some areas – hypersonic missiles, for example – its capability surpasses
that of the U.S. and NATO.
In
other words, the Russian temptation to strike first may be a bit
stronger than during past crises, and we are somewhat less confident
that Russia would want to “go second”. Another disquieting factor is
that the Russians are likely to believe that Macron’s folly has the
tacit approval of some key U.S. and other Western officials, who seem
desperate to find some way to alter the trajectory of the war in Ukraine
– the more so, as elections draw near.
What Needs to Be Done
Europe needs to understand that France is leading it down a path of inevitable self-destruction.
The American people need to understand that Europe is leading them to the cusp of nuclear annihilation.
