[...] The endless increase in the supply of dollars is not the problem [...] Our problem is NOT that money is paper. The problem is those in charge of the government [...] No matter what is money, it CAN NOT be fixed in value. It must be allowed to float, for there are always trends that shift back and forth. Therefore, the relentless creation of money is not because they are paper dollars. As I said, you are blaming the gun rather than the shooter. This is fiscal mismanagement created by Marxism, where the politicians no longer know how to run for office without bribing the people for their votes. This is the system that is completely doomed.
Tuesday, October 4, 2022
On Fiscal Mismanagement | Martin A. Armstrong
[...] The endless increase in the supply of dollars is not the problem [...] Our problem is NOT that money is paper. The problem is those in charge of the government [...] No matter what is money, it CAN NOT be fixed in value. It must be allowed to float, for there are always trends that shift back and forth. Therefore, the relentless creation of money is not because they are paper dollars. As I said, you are blaming the gun rather than the shooter. This is fiscal mismanagement created by Marxism, where the politicians no longer know how to run for office without bribing the people for their votes. This is the system that is completely doomed.
Monday, October 3, 2022
Schwab’s Idea Will Fail | Martin A. Armstrong
Klaus Schwab |
Saturday, October 7, 2017
Value Line Geometric Composite Index | Breaking Above 1998 High
While everybody and his brother are expecting the Everything-Bubble to pop soon, some are touting the stock markets would plunge into an epic abyss. Martin Armstrong explains again why this time it really is different (HERE) |
No doubt, greed is historically excessive in the US-stock market these days (HERE), and a correction is due. At the same time there is a quite different technical perspective to it: It took the Value Line Geometric Composite Index (though not inflation adjusted, but equally weighted, using a geometric average) three attempts and 19 years to finally break significantly above the 1998 high. However, also since 1998, countless Perma-Bears among the Elliott-Wavers are still constantly expecting THE epic stock market crash to be lurking around every corner. They expect the completely distorted major US-stock indices to dive to and below their 1987 crash-lows (the wave 4 of lesser degree-target in Elliott Wave-lingo), and this event to usher in the end of civilization and the ascension of a new dark age. Well, the Value Line Index indeed had crashed below its 1987 low in 2009 already, and keeps rising ever since. The highs of 1998, 2007, 2015 and 2017 are now providing very strong support.
Dow Jones Industrial Average to Gold Price Ratio (in USD) │ Jan 1915 - Oct 2017 Source: macrotrends |
US Equity Market P/E Ratio vs Long‐Term Historical Average Source: PCA |
Wednesday, April 5, 2017
Why Amish do not Pay Social Security Taxes │ Martin Armstrong
The Amish pay taxes because the Bible said: “paying unto Caesar what is Caesar’s.” It was in 1956 that the IRS went to tell the Amish they were now under Social Security and they would have to pay. One Amishman was quoted in a November 1962 Reader’s Digest article: “Allowing our members to shift their interdependence on each other to dependence upon any outside source would inevitably lead to the breakup of our order.” The constitutional question that has never been decided, what happens when the taxing power of government violates the First Amendment and Freedom of Religion? It clearly states: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof …”
Then Jefferson wrote in 1802 to the Baptists of Danbury, Connecticut, that there should be “a wall of separation between church and state.” They feared that a minority religion could be subjugated by the Federal Government acknowledging a national religion. The Johnson Amendment, named for Lyndon Johnson, is a provision in the U.S. tax code that prohibits all 501(c)(3) non-profit organizations from endorsing or opposing political candidates. If churches involve themselves in politics, then indeed that creates a reverse problem where the state can be taken over by one religion and oppress all others; so it can go both ways. Historically, religions have often seized governments and outlawed all other religions.In this instance concerning taxation in direct conflict with religion, a group of Amish presented a petition to Congress, with 14,000 signatures. Naturally, Congress ignored them. The Amish reasonably questioned what possible harm they could do by not paying into Social Security. “We do not want to be burdensome, but we do not want to lose our birthright to everlasting glory, therefore we must do all we can to live our faith!”
The IRS moved to go after the Amish and seize their bank accounts. The problem was – they had none! The IRS then sought to go after anyone buying milk from the Amish and attach their payments to divert them to the IRS. Most simply refused for such a scheme would happen just once and end the business. The IRS, refusing to consider any religious principle, moved in to seize property. In this case of the Amish, that meant cows and horses. They would rather have the Amish die than respect anyone’s rights to religion. Valentine Byler of the Amish community in Pennsylvania, owed four years of IRS taxes. The IRS, of course, tacked on interest and penalties to raise it up to $308.96. Byler argued his religion forbid paying insurance. The IRS said that was a “technicality” and that it was really just a tax. Vyler has no bank account to seize so they issued a summons to appear in court for a charge of contempt. The judge in Federal District Court in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, according to a Reader’s Digest article, “angrily demanded of the IRS agents, ‘Don’t you have anything better to do than to take a peaceful man off his farm and drag him into court?’” The Judge then dismissed the case. The IRS never gives up. The IRS had to issue a statement on April 18, 1961 in which they said: “Since Mr. Byler had no bank account against which to levy for the tax due, it was decided as a last desperate measure to resort to seizure and sale of personal property.” The IRS seized three of Byler’s six horses while he was actually plowing the ground for the spring planting. The IRS then sold the three horses at auction on May 1, 1961 getting $460. They then used this to satisfy the $308.96 and then charged him $113.15 in expenses and graciously returned $37.89. The incident made national news and was being used by the Communists to show how capitalism was ruthless. The New York Herald Tribune, reported the story with the bold headline: “Welfarism Gone Mad.”
The IRS Chief of Collections was forced to respond claiming he was unaware of the plowing situation. “Plowing never occurred to me. I live in an apartment.” To show the mentality of those who are bureaucrats, he then said: “We don’t ask people their race or religion when we administer the tax laws. People have no right to use their religion as an excuse not to pay taxes.” The IRS was then compelled to issue a press release in 1961, stating the Amish stance that “Social Security payments, in their opinion, are insurance premiums and not taxes. They, therefore, will not pay the ‘premium’ nor accept any of the benefits.” The Amish met with the IRS Commissioner in September, 1961 in Washington, DC, They cited several Bible passages, including I Timothy 5:8, which says, “But if any provide not for his own, and especially for those of his own house, he hath denied the faith and is worse than an infidel.”
The public outrage at the conduct of the IRS was international. The Amish argued they were entitled to an exemption based on the First Amendment. The IRS agreed it would stop further seizures until the case was settled. Now, senators promised to try to pass a bill in Congress and everything stopped. The Amish hired a lawyer to challenge this conflict between the taxing power and the First Amendment. However, as the court date approached, they realized if they lost in court, it was over. They then looked to Congress to pursue a legislative exemption. Finally, in 1965, the Medicare bill was passed by Congress. Congress realized that if the Amish went to court and won, then others could challenge the right to tax conflicting with the First Amendment. Congress quietly put in on page 138 a clause exempting the Old Order Amish, and any other religious sect who conscientiously objected to insurance, from paying Social Security payments, providing that sect had been in existence since December 31, 1950. The Senate approved in July, and President Lyndon B. Johnson signed it into law on August 13, 1965.
The open question remains simply this; the first explicit references to the tithe appear in Genesis 14, where Abraham tithes to Melchizedek, and in Genesis 28, where Jacob promises to give God “a full tenth.” But where did the idea to tithe come from? Many argue Abraham and Jacob were simply following the customs of the surrounding nations. But Scripture points in a different direction. In Genesis26:5, God says, “Abraham obeyed my voice and kept my charge, my commandments, my statutes, and my laws.” In the New Testament, Jesus upholds the tithe in Matthew 23:23 (cf. Luke11:42). He condemns the Pharisees for their tedious commitment to one part of God’s law, the tithe, while neglecting “the weightier matters of justice, mercy, and faithfulness.” Then he states, “These you ought to have done, without neglecting the others.”
One of the Five Pillars of Islam, zakat is a religious obligation for all Muslims who meet the necessary criteria of wealth. This too is not a charitable contribution, but is considered to be an obligatory tax or alms. The payment and disputes on zakat have also been controversial in the history of Islam. The zakat is based on income and the value of all of one’s possessions or property. It has been traditionally set at 2.5% above a minimum amount known as nisab, which has also been greatly debated.
In Judaeo-Christianity, the “tithe” was a one tenth of annual produce or earnings, formerly taken as a tax for the support of the church and clergy in Christianity. The question is, does exceeding the level prescribed as a “tithe” violate the First Amendment? If true, then any income tax imposed beyond 10% would violate the First Amendment. Since the Ten Commandments also prohibits coveting anything that belonged to a neighbor including his wife or property, it would appear that Socialism championed by Karl Marx violates the First Amendment and any tax should not exceed 10%. Hence, progressive taxation would be unconstitutional if not a flat tax. Some argue it also violates Equal Protection of the laws. The Tax at the time of Jesus’s statement of give to Caesar what is Caesar’s, was less than 5%. Historically during the Roman Republic, the tax imposed was 1%. During time of war, the taxes would rise to 3%. Ever since Karl Marx, who said religion is the opium of the masses, politicians have loved Marxism and used it to exploit the people to the point governments are averaging now 40% of the entire economy. They have outpaced all other businesses beating the bankers and multinational corporations. They have become the 800 pound gorilla in the corner of the room nobody notices is even there. Politicians always preach against the “rich” which increases the wealth of government [...]
Monday, May 30, 2016
Gold vs Pluto Retrograde | Sun 000° + 180° Pluto
Martin Armstrong (May 31, 2016): "All the big manipulations have ALWAYS been to the UPSIDE, not to the downside. It is absurd to pretend that gold is suppressed perpetually so they can make money in some strange way." Calculated and charted with Timing Solution. |
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
China's Supergrowth Likely To Run Five More Years
Credits: World Bank ׀ Enlarge |
But that requires that people outside your country buy your low-priced manufactures. And the world has reached a point at which demand for manufactured goods is no longer highly elastic [...] After the 2015 stock market crash, China is likely to have another five, maybe ten, years of very healthy growth. The party can redistribute income from the rich to the middle and the poor and from the coasts to the interior. Mammoth demand from an enriched urban middle class and peasantry can provide business for all of China's factories that otherwise would be selling into an export market with lower-than-expected demand elasticity. The interior can be brought up to the manufacturing productivity standards of the coast (see also HERE)
Tuesday, October 20, 2015
Martin Armstrong's Political Economy | 72 Year Cycle of Political Change
"Bretton Woods took place in 1944. Adding 72 years brings us to 2016. This model has been uncanny in predicting political change." (recent interview HERE) |
"High Treason" - Federal Republic of Germany established May 23, 1949 + 72 Years = 2021 |
Martin Armstrong (Oct 17, 2015) - Each country has its own unique cycle. There was a very major turning point in France that nearly became a revolution [in May 1968]. Even Charles de Gaulle secretly left France for a few hours after fearing for his life and a revolution [...] The French socialist state is now collapsing under Hollande. Civil unrest will erupt moving into 2017 and then there is the risk of another major cultural revolution as the youth do not share the same values as the socialistic elites who are in control. We will see that risk erupt by 2020 or 51.6 years from the May 1968 cultural revolution (see also HERE)
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
Martin Armstrong on the DJIA
Martin Armstrong (Sep 23, 2015) - [...] Yes, if this week simply closes on the Dow below 16280, then we can be looking at that slingshot move I have warned about where in one year, we have a crash and a swing to the upside to new highs (see also HERE + HERE).
[...] Remember, if the stocks decline into 2015.75, that should push more and more capital into government bonds completing the BUBBLE. This is by no means a BUBBLE in stocks, commodities, or the dollar. This is a peak in GOVERNMENT. This is not even a Kondratieff Wave based upon commodities. This is the 309.6 year cycle in government and unfortunately, the other side of 2015.75 is not looking very pretty. This not about just the collapse of Europe. This is the collapse of Western forms of government that aids the shift in the financial capital of world to China by 2032 (how to read the above Forecast Array = HERE + HERE).
Saturday, August 29, 2015
Financial Fascism - The Elimination of Physical Currency
“Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power.” ― Benito Mussolini, 1932 |
“The existence of cash — a bearer instrument with a zero interest rate — limits central banks’ ability to stimulate a depressed economy. The worry is that people will change their deposits for cash if a central bank moves rates into negative territory,” states the article. Complaining that cash cannot be tracked and traced, the writer argues that its abolition would, “make life easier for a government set on squeezing the informal economy out of existence.” Abolishing cash would also give governments more power to lift taxes directly from people’s bank accounts, the author argues, noting how “Value added tax, for example, could be automatically levied — and reimbursed — in real time on transactions between liable bank accounts.”
Totalitarianism of the European Financial Oligarchy - Votes change nothing! |
Saturday, August 1, 2015
DJIA vs Lunar North Node in Zodiac Signs | Louise McWhirter
In her book 'Astrology and Stock Market Forecasting' published almost 80 years ago, financial astrologer Louise McWhirter described a theory of the business cycle. She claimed the low point of the depression was reached in summer of 1933 (Lunar North Node in Aquarius) and predicted the next peak in economic activity would occur in November 1942 (NN in Leo). Her prediction for recovery in 1942 coincided with the massive economic stimulus spending set in motion by the build-up for World War II. Looking at 100 years of stock market prices she consistently found the North Node in the sign of Aquarius during periods of low economic activity. At the halfway point in the 18.6-year cycle, the North Node is moving into the sign of Leo, where economic high points have historically been recorded. After this, the long-term trend moves lower as the North Node slowly and systematically makes its way back to the sign of Aquarius, where the cycle begins anew (see also HERE).
Enlarge |
Though a considerable market correction between now and Q1 2016 is likely (HERE & HERE), a larger ensuing double-dip recession wouldn’t fit into the McWhirter-pattern (HERE). Instead the general upward trend should continue into the major peak-out between May 2017 and November 2018 (NN in Leo - HERE), followed by collapsing and declining markets into the 2020s (HERE).
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
The Fractal Design of Time | Martin A. Armstrong
- The model consists of cycle waves that vary in length, from shorter to longer, and build up over time; for example, 8.6 to 51.6 to 309.6 years.
- It examines these cycle waves to discover when they are set to culminate, reflecting a possible shift in market confidence at that point in time.
- This shift in confidence is reflected by capital flows and concentration.
- The longer the cycle wave, the greater the magnitude of the shift in confidence.
- The dates in the model that reflect possible shifts are referred to as ECM turning points.
Saturday, July 11, 2015
Game Over 2015.75 | Martin Armstrong
"Schaeuble wants a Grexit to put the fear of God into the French!" HERE & HERE |
Martin Armstrong: "This is the start of BIG BANG and as the rest of Western nations raise taxes, the economy is about to fall off a cliff and they bring economic activity into a swan-dive. They will, as always, blame the private sector. We can see this decline coming as long-term bonds crashed from May, liquidity has collapsed, and there is excess cash in the short-end keeping interest rates low ensuring we will see not just municipalities decline into a debt crisis like Detroit, but we are staring in the eyes of death insofar as pensions are concerned. Politicians are good for only (1) lies, (2) corruption, (3) debt, (4) taxes, and (5) death and war." |
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
US Stocks May Double into 2017 | Martin Armstrong
HERE This is in line with the Lunar Node Projection for the US-Economy: HERE & HERE |
[...] With bond yields pushed down to all-time lows, bond prices are now at all-time highs. As rates eventually start to move up, large investors will try to prevent losses by shifting into other areas with US assets, particularly stocks and real estate, serving as the most likely destination.
Sunday, March 29, 2015
The Forecaster | Martin Armstrong
Starting at a very young age, Martin Armstrong displayed an entrepreneurial spirit and an analytical ability that were far too complicated for others. As a child he was already collecting coins, and before long he would be trading in gold. As an adult, he started the company Princeton Economics International. Based on a self-designed model, in which the mysterious number Pi plays an intrinsic role, he was able to calculate developments in the world economy. His predictions about stock crises or currency problems were eerily accurate, and he built up a clientele that consisted of powerful players in the global economy. More HERE & HERE & HERE
HERE |
Monday, April 23, 2012
Martin A. Armstrong (1989 + 2011): Long Wave Theory - Kondratieff Wave Already Bottomed?
Thursday, March 15, 2012
The 8.6 Year Global Business Cycle 2002 - 2028 | Martin A. Armstrong
2002.850 = 2000-Nov-06 (Mon) = Major Low
2005.000 = 2005-Jan-01 (Sat) = High
2006.075 = 2006-Jan-28 (Sat) = Low
2007.150 = 2007-Feb-24 (Sat) = Major High
2008.225 = 2008-Mar-23 (Sun) = Low
2009.300 = 2009-Apr-20 (Mon) = High
2011.450 = 2011-Jun-14 (Tue) = Major Low
2013.600 = 2013-Aug-08 (Thu) = High
2014.675 = 2014-Sep-04 (Thu) = Low
2015.750 = 2015-Oct-01 (Thu) = Major High
2016.825 = 2016-Oct-28 (Fri) = Low
2017.900 = 2017-Nov-25 (Sat) = High
2020.050 = 2020-Jan-19 (Sun) = Major Low
2022.200 = 2022-Mar-15 (Tue) = High
2023.275 = 2023-Apr-11 (Tue) = Low
2024.350 = 2024-May-07 (Tue) = Major High
2025.425 = 2025-Jun-05 (Thu) = Low
2026.500 = 2026-Jul-02 (Thu) = High
2028.650 = 2028-Aug-25 (Fri) = Major Low
- The model consists of cycle waves that vary in length, from shorter to longer, and build up over time; for example, 8.6 to 51.6 to 309.6 years.
- It examines these cycle waves to discover when they are set to culminate, reflecting a possible shift in market confidence at that point in time.
- This shift in confidence is reflected by capital flows and concentration.
- The longer the cycle wave, the greater the magnitude of the shift in confidence.
- The dates in the model that reflect possible shifts are referred to as ECM turning points.