Showing posts with label Martin A. Armstrong. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Martin A. Armstrong. Show all posts

Monday, July 21, 2025

100% Chance of Nuclear War as Early as August │ Martin Armstrong

Six weeks ago, financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong was signaling a major turn toward war. Now, Armstrong says, "The chances of war with a nuclear exchange are at 100%. Plan on it—this is coming."

» The chances of a war involving a nuclear exchange are at 100%. 
Plan for it—this is coming. Starting in August, this whole situation is going to escalate.  «
 
Can the world avoid nuclear war with President Trump’s 50-day deadline given to Russia to make peace in Ukraine? Armstrong says, "You do not threaten your adversary, who is at your same level, publicly. If you want to say something like that, you do it privately in a phone call. Now, what will happen is Putin cannot possibly sign a peace deal. What—are you crazy—to do this in 50 days? We have staff in Germany, and I was told by my staff that a 60-year-old friend was told to report for duty. 
 
»
There is a 100% chance that NATO will trigger a total nuclear war within the next year. «
Martin Armstrong, July 23, 2025.
 
I had a friend who was at the NATO 'Summit on Peace in Ukraine' in Switzerland, and he called me when it was over and said, ‘Holy crap, this has nothing to do with peace anymore. This is all about preparing for war. Everybody should start getting ready for drafts, to start going that way.’ They want war. They are not backing off."

 » They want war. They are not backing off. «
 
Armstrong’s computer, Socrates, is signaling war as early as next month. Armstrong says, "Starting in August, this whole thing is going to be escalating up. Our computer has what we call a ‘Panic Cycle’ within our war cycles for 2026. That is not good. I don’t know what the hell Trump is smoking. My computer has been projecting war, and it is projecting war going into 2026. This is not looking good, and Europe will lose. It is as simple as that."

Thursday, July 17, 2025

Trump’s GENIUS Act Sets the Stage for US CBDC | Martin Armstrong

While the world was distracted by the Epstein debacle, legislators introduced the GENUIS Act that would permit the US government to regulate stablecoins. The GENUIS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act), primarily sponsored by Senator Bill Hagerty (R-Tennessee), permits the government to oversee, regulate, and define the $250 billion stablecoin market.

Now, stablecoins differ from cryptocurrencies as they are pegged to a stable asset such as a fiat currency or commodity. Cryptocurrencies are allegedly allowed to freely operate on the market based on supply and demand. The GENIUS Act will peg stablecoins to the US dollar and require issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve ratio in short-term treasuries or cash.

»
I just voted NO on the Rule for the GENIUS Act because it does not include a ban on Central Bank Digital Currency and because Speaker Johnson did not allow us to submit amendments to the GENIUS Act. Americans do not want a government-controlled
 
Issuers holding over $10 billion in outstanding stablecoins will be subject to federal regulation under a newly created oversight agency. These issuers will now be deemed financial institutions and required to meet the traditional banking regulations as well. Stablecoins can no longer pay interest or act as an alternative to bonds. Perhaps most notably, issuers must not meet anti-money-laundering (AML) regulations, which are set to provide the government with unlimited access to payments.
 
So essentially, the government is turning the stablecoin into a digital dollar of sorts. The concern here is that this could delve into digitizing all currency and creating a CBDC. The act specifically provides the government with the authority to “block, freeze, and reject specific or impermissible transactions.” “A permitted payment stablecoin issuer shall be treated as a financial institution [and]…shall be subject to all Federal laws applicable to a financial institution located in the United States including…policies and procedures to block, freeze, and reject specific or impermissible transactions that violate Federal or State laws, rules, or regulations…”

»
 In 1971, we left the gold standard. Today, the groundwork is being laid for a cashless society controlled by digital currency.
You won’t control your money. The government will. This would end freedom altogether. «
Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, July 17, 2024.
 
This provision is not intended to protect the world against drug smugglers and thieves. This provision is intended to grant government unlimited control over how people spend stablecoins. The government could have easily frozen the accounts of those who refused the COVID-19 vaccination, for example, and the Biden Administration admittedly weaponized existing financial institutions to spy on Conservative Americans through their payment histories.
 
“Stablecoins are the bait and switch for direct-issued government CBDCs,” Bitcoin Magazine editor Mark Goodwin said, “Stablecoins can be programmed. Exactly like how we fear CBDCs will be programmed. They’re exactly the same tokenized mechanism… They can be taken out of your wallet. Your wallet can be blacklisted. A lot of the things that we fear about CBDCs are totally available within the tool set of Stablecoins.”
 
The GENIUS Act has received bipartisan support. Although Republican Hagerty championed the bill, he had bipartisan co-sponsors, including Senators Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), Tim Scott (R-SC), and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY).
 
I warned that governments would NEVER allow any cryptocurrency or stablecoin to compete with their own currency. I long warned that government was merely tolerating these alternative currencies in the past as they posed no real threat. But now the government needs the ability to tax everything to support its perpetual spending. Every digital transaction is traceable. Every digital currency is controllable—the ultimate power grab.
 
One of Donald Trump’s main campaign promises was the prevention of CBDC. The headlines are enraged over his failure to release the Epstein files, but the GENUIS Act is a far deeper betrayal of the American people that has the ability to usher in a new monetary system.
 
 
See also: 

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Gold Rises Not with Inflation, But with Geopolitical Issues | Martin Armstrong

Comment by FD: Is he breaking the London metals dealers’ hold to suppress the gold price?
 

Reply by Martin Armstrong: I am tired of hearing the same constant nonsense about gold being intentionally suppressed by dealers, and that’s why it’s not at $10,000. I have traded against these people for years. Here is a clip from  The Forecaster with Barclay [Leib], who used to work for me years ago, talking about how he checked me out with Goldman Sachs before taking the job. 
 

Every manipulation these dealers ever pulled off was to the upside – not to suppress gold. They sell 10x more when people think gold is rising, not declining. This BS claim that they were suppressing gold to help the government keep inflation in check is total BS!  
 
[...] Gold rises NOT with inflation, but with geopolitical issues. Here was the National Debt Q2 1980 at $877.614bn. As of Q2 2024, it stood at $36,218bn. The debt has risen 40.29% since 1980. Gold hit $875 on January 21, 1980, in the cash market. If gold rose because of inflation or the debt level, then it should be $35,260 per ounce. The gold dealer could buy all of Wall Street with that price.
 
Gold/USD (Monthly Bars).
Since the start of the never-ending, ever-larger global US War-of-Terror in September 2001, the price of
gold in USD rose from 251 to 3,176 USD/ounce by April 2025 (average annual growth rate: 17.35%). 
The average annual inflation rate in the US from 2001 to April 2025 is approximately 2.7%.
The cumulative inflation rate in the US from 2001 to April 2025 is approximately 74.9%.
In 2001, the US federal debt was $5.8 trillion and rose to $34.8 trillion by April 2025 (annual growth: 9.86%).
Preliminary results of the global US War-of-Terror in 2023: 4.5 to 4.7 million Muslims killed, with millions more wounded and
maimed. 38 million Muslims displaced, and tens of thousands of settlements, institutions, and infrastructure destroyed. Eco-
nomies collapsed, misery widespread, and famines and mass migrations triggered. US budgetary costs: $8 trillion plus interests.
 
These people who make up these excuses [gold price manipulation] are unbelievable. Gold pays no interest, which is why they lease it out. Otherwise, it is a dead asset that brings in no income. It is a hedge against the government in times of uncertainty—that’s it. It is not a hedge against inflation or the size of the debt. That has been a great sales pitch, but that is it.

 
See also:

Sunday, April 6, 2025

DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2 | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Joe: Marty, I have now heard it all. When I asked why the stock market crashed, I was not told it was tariffs. I was told that “Armstrong told his clients there would be a Panic at the end of March to the first week of April. All the huge wealth funds are Armstrong’s clients.” I guess they flipped a coin. Heads, Trump did it; tails, Armstrong did it. [...]

DJIA Panic Cycle kicks in during the week of April 28 - May 2
followed by Directional Change in the week of May 12 - 16.

Reply by Martin Armstrong
: Look, the computer from the start of this year pointed to the last week of March and the first week of April. That was well before the tariff announcement. Trump’s tariffs are opening doors, not closing them. Maybe the smart ones figured that out and turned to me. These people can blame me as always. I think the difference this time is that we have opened
Socrates so the entire world can see it. [...] Everyone knows this is not my personal opinion. [...] It’s Just Time.

 

Thursday, April 3, 2025

Medvedev Watching the River Flow


» As it is, Russia barely does any trade with the US and EU, nearly all of it is under sanctions. Yet, our economy is growing 3% now. 
We’ll take the advice of Lao Tzu and sit by the river, waiting for the body of the enemy to float by.
The decaying corpse of the EU economy. «
 

A significant number of European politicians have succumbed to acute Russomania (also known as Russophobia)—a psychiatric disorder stemming from a bipolar affective exaggeration of Russia’s influence on the lives of Europe and Europeans. The condition typically alternates between two distinct phases: manic and depressive.

The manic stage is characterized by motor agitation, aggressiveness, and a tendency to provoke and attack stronger opponents without assessing one’s actual capabilities against the target of the attack. Sometimes, it ends in uncontrolled urination and defecation. Examples of patients in the manic stage include Macron, Starmer, Stubb, and several other European politicians.
 
From Third Reich to European Union.

The depressive phase is characterized by melancholy, emotional and physical fatigue, eating disorders, hypochondria, and self-harm. A patient in the depressive stage of Russomania may harm themselves, including self-sterilization (self-castration). At present, this stage is more commonly observed in women (Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas) or in hermaphrodites suffering from drug addiction (patients Zelensky, Saakashvili).

Treatment is symptomatic. Traditional medications are generally ineffective. The best therapeutic effect has been observed with the combined use of strong sedative drugs such as "Kalibr," "Onyx," "Iskander," and the powerful multi-component tranquilizer "Oreshnik." In particularly severe cases, nuclear neuroleptics such as "Yars" and "Sarmat" must be used.
 
 

Friday, March 21, 2025

Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Hans: Mr. Armstrong, thank you for speaking the truth about the timeline of this war with Ukraine. Every news story here in Europe says the same thing. Russia was unprovoked. Never in my entire life have I ever witnessed such outright lies by the press. I do not see the Europeans rising up to overthrow these governments. We are sheep being led to the slaughter. You have forecasted that the euro will no longer exist, and they are rapidly moving to digital currencies, which will be, as you say, for capital control. We will not be able to leave or get our money out. [...] I think it is time to prepare for the future sooner than later.

» From about May 15th 2025 on, Europe is going into war, 
Europe will lose, and the Euro will become extinct. «
Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: It gives me no pleasure to live through Socrates’ forecasts [...] The euro has broken last year’s low and is still trading below it. We have a very serious Panic Cycle for Europe next year [2026], and they are pushing to cancel the currency’s move to digital as soon as possible. All they look at is capital controls, which will prevent bank runs and stop capital fleeing. They are trying to control their risk of the collapse of the EU. [...] Lagarde runs the ECB, pushing for the cancellation of the currency and moving to digital [by October 2025]. This is about taxes all over again.
 
» We are witnessing capital contracting in both the United States and Europe. «

[...] I have been warning that we are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe. The total outstanding government and corporate bonds globally have now exceeded $100 trillion in 2024, as reported by the OECD. As I have also been warning, the central banks have been neutered. They can no longer fight inflation by raising interest rates because government debt just explodes. Governments have NO INTENTION of ever paying off their debt. They think there is no end to this game.

 » We are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe.
Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 2026. PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. 
Major recession globally into 2028. EU prepares for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029. «

[...] While central banks are cutting interest rates, borrowing costs remain much higher than before 2022’s rate hikes because the ECM, in particular, went to negative interest rates in 2014, which only encouraged governments to issue more debt. This all comes at a time when the EU wants to fund an army and prepare for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029.

will wipe out Britain entirely. The Computer Has NEVER been Wrong. Europe Will Lose!!! «
 
[...] Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 2026, and this does not bode well for Europe or the Euro. Nearly HALF of ALL outstanding government debt among OECD countries and emerging markets and around ONE THIRD of corporate debt will mature by 2027. Our computer is showing PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. The defaults come when you cannot sell the NEW debt to pay off the old. [...] Everything is coming to the point of a major Sovereign Debt default that the government will not survive. [...] Add the trade wars and what our model shows a major recession globally into 2028; it is hard to see how many countries can even make it to 2029.

Monday, March 17, 2025

Ahead of Iran War, Capital Flows Flee the US and Europe | Martin Armstrong

Comment by EKL: Your computer model tracks capital flows, [...] capital is being withdrawn globally in preparation for war. We could not make decisions in our boardroom without consulting Socrates anymore. It is unbiased and that is the most valuable asset in times of such uncertainty. God bless.

Martin Armstrong's Socrates Daily Global Capital Flows Heat Map as of March 17, 2025.
 » From about May 15th on, Europe is going into war, Europe will lose, and the Euro will become extinct. «
Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: Yes, you are correct. We are witnessing capital contracting in both the United States and Europe. It is even leaving Canada and Mexico. 

Monday, March 10, 2025

Markets Crash On Cue & Trump Won't Rule Out Recession | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Kirk: It looks like Trump is aware of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). Markets crashed right on cue with Socrates, and he refused to rule out a recession. What is most curious is that you had a Panic Cycle for this week of March 10 [...]
 

Reply by Martin Armstrong: The ECM turned down on May 7, 2024. That was the day of the attempted assassination of Zelensky. Within weeks, the central banks started lowering rates. [...]
We are headed into a Global RECESSION no matter what Trump thinks or does.
 
 Dow Jones Industrials Index - Weekly Timing Arrays (Feb 24 - May 12, 2025)

[...] This is NOT my personal opinion. Socrates is the only fully functioning Artificial Intelligence Computer with more than a 40-year track record. [...] It will be a depression in some regions, primarily Europe. One country alone does not dictate the trend globally. Trump cannot create an economic boom when the rest of the world is imploding.


 

Monday, March 3, 2025

Europe Will Go to War, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct | Martin Armstrong

It looks like every country in Europe is backing more war in Ukraine. And now, there is renewed talk of an EU army. Martin Armstrong says:

"Why? Because they all are facing the collapse of the European Union. The debt is just unbelievable. They never consolidated. Between Covid, Climate Change and sanctions on Russia, the German economy has shrunk 3% to 5%. The economic growth of the EU is appalling. Europe is falling, and this is why they need war. So, they are backing Zelensky.”

European NATO members desperately want World War 3 with Russia, and the US to help them.
Most, if not all, in this group photo would be ideal candidates to be hanged or shot 
 
In a new report on March 2nd, Armstrong lays out the case why war in Europe is coming and coming soon:

“In this report, I gathered a bunch of headlines:  London Financial Times, what’s the headline?  ‘America is Now the Enemy of the West.’ This is why Trump is saying ‘We are out.’  Zelensky has admitted that 58% of the $350 billion the US gave him is missing.  You cut the funding, and you are going to find out the truth. Trump should cut every single penny. Bring it all out. Zelensky is counting on Europe to replace the United States. This is why he’s so arrogant [...] Trump should get the hell out of NATO–as soon as possible.

 » Trump should get the US out of NATO asap. From about May 15th on, Europe is going into war, Europe will lose, gold is coming
to America, the US dollar is not collapsing anytime soon, the Euro will become extinct, Ukraine is going dead. That's it. « 
Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

So, why are all these reports coming out in the last few months about gold coming to America from Europe? Armstrong says, “Last week, I was on the phone, and I can’t tell you how much, but when you are about to go into war, capital moves. [...] Right now, I am concerned from about May 15th on. [...] Our computer
“Socrates” says Europe is going into war, and I put it into this report, Europe will lose. [...] This is why the gold is coming to America.”


Armstrong also contends you can forget about predictions of the US dollar collapsing anytime soon - it won’t. Armstrong says, “The Euro will become extinct.” Armstrong also predicts, “I published what the computer “Socrates” put out on Ukraine. It’s a flatline, and I have never seen that on any other country. It’s a flatline. It’s going dead. That’s it.”

 
Martin Armstrong (March 4, 2025):
» We must get out of NATO. «
 

Monday, December 23, 2024

Outlook for 2025: Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction | Martin Armstrong

The year 2025 marks a critical turning point, with a global economic crisis on the horizon. Our computer models predict a major downturn, particularly in Europe, and a prolonged US recession extending into 2028. This crisis stems from long-term mismanagement by central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, which kept interest rates too low for too long, forcing banks to hold risky government debt. While analysts focus on short-term rates, the Fed has little control over long-term rates, which continue to rise despite rate cuts. Tensions in Europe, including the threat of World War III, are exacerbating this issue and pushing rates even higher.

» While financial elites are aware of the looming collapse, everyday people will feel its full force. «

The rise in long-term rates reflects a loss of confidence in government debt. For instance, corporate bonds in France are now offering better returns than government bonds, and even Greece's debt is becoming more attractive. This points to systemic weaknesses within European governments. Meanwhile, the US faces its own dilemma: raising rates to combat inflation only makes its national debt more expensive. As the world's largest borrower, higher rates simply add to the debt burden rather than reducing spending. This crisis underscores the failure of Keynesian economics, which Paul Volcker acknowledged in 1979. Today, the US government borrows far more than in the past, and raising interest rates does little to curb spending—it only adds to the debt.


The financial system is now in deep trouble, and the average person will bear the consequences. Europe is headed for a depression, and the US is facing a severe recession. Unemployment will rise, wages will shrink, and basic goods will become more expensive. The gap between the rich and poor will widen, and financial instability will increase. A sovereign debt default in Europe by 2025 is likely to trigger a broader collapse, with massive financial instability by 2026-2027. Many banks and pension funds are heavily invested in government debt, and a default could lead to the disintegration of European financial systems. Insiders are very much aware of the crisis and fear that public panic could worsen the situation, potentially triggering bank runs. While not all banks are equally at risk, poor management and political interference in banking have worsened the problem. The Federal Reserve, designed to act as a backstop for failing banks, may be overwhelmed by the scale of the crisis.
 
The impact on ordinary Americans will be severe, with rising unemployment, shrinking wages, and higher living costs. While financial elites are aware of the looming collapse, everyday people will feel its full force. The US government’s failure to roll over its debt could spark a chain reaction, causing widespread bank failures. The interconnectedness of the banking system means one collapse could trigger a broader financial breakdown. Cash will become essential, as digital transactions and credit systems may fail, as seen in previous disruptions like the Canadian trucker protests.

I strongly recommend preparing for this crisis by having physical cash and at least two years' worth of food stored. The collapse of the financial system will lead to widespread losses in banks and pension funds, and the government and central banks will be unable to protect everyone. Those who are unprepared will suffer the most.

 November 2024: A Norwegian task force has advised against the immediate adoption of a central 
bank digital currency, while South Korea has launched a CBDC pilot with seven major banks.

As the debt crisis worsens, geopolitical instability will exacerbate inflation and push capital into the US as a safe haven. The dollar will strengthen, and sectors like gold, food, and bonds will see increased investment. However, emerging markets with high foreign-denominated debt, such as Brazil, will be particularly vulnerable to financial crises.

I also caution against the growing threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which would grant governments unprecedented control over personal finances. The rise of gold as a long-term safe haven, coupled with rising long-term interest rates, will create significant risks for those holding variable-rate debt. People should prepare by securing tangible assets like cash, food, and gold, and locking in fixed-rate debt where possible. The coming crisis is inevitable, and those who prepare will have the best chance of weathering the storm.