Thursday, April 3, 2025

Medvedev Watching the River Flow


» As it is, Russia barely does any trade with the US and EU, nearly all of it is under sanctions. Yet, our economy is growing 3% now. 
We’ll take the advice of Lao Tzu and sit by the river, waiting for the body of the enemy to float by.
The decaying corpse of the EU economy. «
 

A significant number of European politicians have succumbed to acute Russomania (also known as Russophobia)—a psychiatric disorder stemming from a bipolar affective exaggeration of Russia’s influence on the lives of Europe and Europeans. The condition typically alternates between two distinct phases: manic and depressive.

The manic stage is characterized by motor agitation, aggressiveness, and a tendency to provoke and attack stronger opponents without assessing one’s actual capabilities against the target of the attack. Sometimes, it ends in uncontrolled urination and defecation. Examples of patients in the manic stage include Macron, Starmer, Stubb, and several other European politicians.
 
From Third Reich to European Union.

The depressive phase is characterized by melancholy, emotional and physical fatigue, eating disorders, hypochondria, and self-harm. A patient in the depressive stage of Russomania may harm themselves, including self-sterilization (self-castration). At present, this stage is more commonly observed in women (Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas) or in hermaphrodites suffering from drug addiction (patients Zelensky, Saakashvili).

Treatment is symptomatic. Traditional medications are generally ineffective. The best therapeutic effect has been observed with the combined use of strong sedative drugs such as "Kalibr," "Onyx," "Iskander," and the powerful multi-component tranquilizer "Oreshnik." In particularly severe cases, nuclear neuroleptics such as "Yars" and "Sarmat" must be used.
 
 

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Red Alert: Is the US Economy Headed for a Devastating Recession?

1. Stock Markets are facing significant uncertainty. US stocks ended last week with a 2% decline. Goldman Sachs has assigned a 35% chance of a US recession within the next 12 months. The firm has also officially reduced its S&P 500 forecasts, citing the impact of higher tariffs and increasing recession risks.


2. The Trade Deficit reached unprecedented levels in February, ballooning to $147.9 billion. January's revised deficit also soared to $153.3 billion. This surge is primarily due to a significant increase in imports of industrial supplies, such as oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), gold, and steel, as producers prepare for an extended trade war.


3. The financial storm is intensifying. Since January 31st, the S&P 500 and the US Dollar Index have dropped by 6.5% and 3.5%, respectively. This is a rare occurrence, as the last time both stocks and the Dollar fell in tandem by such a significant margin was in 2008.


4. The US Stock Market is experiencing historically unprecedented concentration levels, surpassing even the intense frenzy of the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. The top 10 stocks now make up 36% of the S&P 500, approaching an all-time high.


5. Gold is gaining attention as a safe haven. According to Bank of America, 58% of fund managers believe gold performs best during a trade war. Over the past 12 months, $7 trillion has been added to gold's market capitalization, signaling significant economic uncertainty.


6. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued a concerning forecast regarding the US debt. Federal deficits are expected to rise from 6.2% of GDP in 2025 to 7.3% by 2055. Public debt is projected to surge dramatically, growing from 100% of GDP in 2025 to a staggering 156% by 2055.


7. The Yield Curve typically shows higher yields on long-term US bonds compared to short-term bonds, reflecting the greater risk associated with lending money over a longer period. However, the US is currently experiencing an inversion of the curve, a historical pattern that has reliably preceded past recessions.


8. By February 2025, the U3 Unemployment Rate is projected to be 4.1%, while the U6 unemployment rate is expected to be 8.0%. Peter Schiff argues that the U3 rate appears low because it doesn't account for millions of unemployed individuals who aren't included in the official statistics. According to him, the US systematically hides the true extent of unemployment.


9. If Trump were to escalate with Tariffs, the impact on complex supply chains could be significant. Cars, for example, could see an additional $12,200 in costs due to tariffs, particularly those with parts from Canada or Mexico, which would face the steepest increases. Additionally, domestically produced goods that rely on imported materials would incur hidden tariff costs, further adding to the economic burden.


 

»
China is crushing the US in the technological innovation race. China’s economic model is superior to America’s. Chinese companies reinvest their profits into expanding production, employment, research, and development, while US companies reinvest their profits into stock buybacks. «Prof. Michael Hudson, November 21, 2024.
 

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Cosmic Cluster Days | April 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. The 'noise channel' serves as a signal filter, with the upper and lower limits of the channel being empirically defined. That said, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows also within the 'noise channel,' may correlate with or coincide with short-term market trends and reversals.
 
   Cosmic Cluster Days  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel    — — —  Solunar Rhythm
  = Full Moon | = New Moon |   = Lunar Declination max North / = max South立春Solar Terms
 
Cosmic Cluster Days in April 2025:
Mar 22 (Sat) | Apr 04 (Fri) | Apr 14 (Mon) | Apr 18 (Fri) | Apr 30 (Wed) | May 25 (Sun)
 
Partial Solar Eclipse (New Moon in Aries) on Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 6:46 am EDT. 
 Mars at Aphelion on Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 18:00 EDT.
Mercury at Aphelion on Thursday, April 17, 2025 at 10:00 EDT.
Mercury at Greatest Elongation on Monday, April 21, 2025 at 15:00 EDT.
 
For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].
Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].  
Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE]. 
Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points, click [HERE]. 
Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].
Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].

The
SoLunar Rhythm in April 2025.
 
Selected geocentric events in
April 2025 (EST/EDT).

April 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.

 Since 1950, April has shown steady market gains from the first trading day to the last, with occasional
minor dips. In post-election years, April starts weaker, but the dip is brief and shallow.

As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, April has historically been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.
 

In post-election years, April remains a top performing month ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.

 
Other Bullish Scenarios:
 
Rob
ert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.
 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%

Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Are Metals Kicking Off the Next Commodity Supercycle? | Alex Krainer

Market analysts tend to attribute great significance to the price of copper as an important leading economic indicator: if demand for copper is rising, the economy is growing (and vice versa). For that reason, they pay close attention to what "Dr. Copper" is saying. But last week, Gold also made new all time highs at around $3,050/oz. Silver rallied quite strongly as well, but it's still trading well below its ATH price, which was just shy of $50/tr.oz. in April of 2011. Here is what the whole COMEX metals complex looks like:
 
 COMEX Metals Complex (January 01, 2021 = 100)
 
There has been an overall rising trend in the metals, building gradually from late 2023. However, platinum barely moved thus far and palladium actually dropped by more than half in the last four years. The rise in Gold, Silver and Copper may be driven by inflation fears rather than economic growth. Those three metals are investors' preferred inflation hedges. Inflation hedging demand is likely what's behind the upward pressure on prices. 
 
Europe's great rearmament frenzy and the hundreds of billions of euros being allocated for it might end up adding more upward pressure to prices of industrial metals, as well as energy. In all, this will end up giving a strong boost to commodity price inflation in what could end up being a self-reinforcing cycle, triggering the next leg in the widely anticipated commodity supercycle.

US Commodity Price Index (1795 to Present)
with Major Inflation Peaks (Red Dots) & Major Inflation Troughs (Blue Dots).
Shown as 10 Year Rolling Compound Growth Rate with Polynomial Trend at Tops & Bottoms.

Long commodity cycles suggest that currency debasement and inflation may peak in the early 2040s. A commodity supercycle could reach its peak by 2045 (indicated by the last red dot), following a long cycle wave that spans approximately 55 years, with each cycle growing 5 years longer over the past 200 years. This pattern implies that the next peak will occur around 2045, 65 years after the peak in 1980.

None of this will happen overnight: the commodity supercycle is expected to span a period of 10 to 25 years, and it will be marked with many price rallies, followed by corrections and consolidations in that time. It should therefore be navigated with due caution and an iron discipline.

 

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Dumb & Dumber: US Senate Hearing on National Security | Judge Napolitano

 Tulsi Gabbard, National Intelligence Director & John Ratcliffe, CIA Director.
 
"God of all life, we seek Your guidance in a world filled with challenges. Today, prepare the members of this body [the US Senate Hearing on National Security] for the difficult work of solving life's riddles. Grant them the wisdom to find common ground and accomplish Your will in our nation and the world. Teach them to give of themselves for the good of others. Lord, amen."
 
Once upon a time, a transactional real estate shyster known as The Rabbi, a hillbilly, a crusader, a tattletale, a muy pendejo, and an aloha princess—each very ambitious and cunning—embarked on a journey to change the world forever. One day, they ...
 
 


» I often think about what has happened to the concept of truth in our society. People lie constantly, deceive endlessly, and spin narratives all the time. It has become so difficult to know what to believe anymore. This is a tragic situation. And by the way, this is most apparent when it comes to Israel. There, you are often not even allowed to discuss how Israel behaves, or how the Israeli issue relates to other issues. It’s simply dismissed, and as a result, people end up speaking about it in vague, indirect ways. The level of dishonesty in our society is truly staggering.

» The US is killing without purpose. We decide to attack the Houthis, and we do it.
We don’t care about the Constitution, the law, or the lives of civilians.
«
 
We have been, and continue to be, complicit in supporting a genocide in Gaza since late 2023. If you look at our actions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria, the number of people—civilians, including women, children, and the elderly—who have died is staggering. And when you look at how Israel behaves in the Middle East today, it's clear they are launching attacks in countries all around the region. And we support it. No one protests. They decide to attack southern Lebanon, and they do. They decide to attack Syria, and they do. We decide to attack the Houthis, and we do. We don’t care about the Constitution, the law, or the lives of civilians. This is the point we've reached. « John J. Mearsheimer, March 27, 2025.
 
See also: 

BlackRock Merz: "Germany is Back!" Yes, in the 1930s | Alex Krainer

On Friday, March 14, 2025, Germany's soon-to-be Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, reached a deal with the Green Party to secure a massive infrastructure and defense spending bill. "Germany's back!" said jubilant Merz. "Germany is making its great contribution to the defense of freedom and peace in Europe." The deal will exempt defense spending from the constitutional debt brake and create a €500 billion fund to finance projects outside of the normal budgetary spending. Among other things, this will enable Germany to boost aid to Ukraine.

» The EU is driving to rearm Europe and hijack ten trillion euros of European savings to militarize the old continent. «
 Full disclosure: The moustache of BlackRock Merz is not real - it was skillfully photoshopped.

Today, the Bundestag will vote on constitutional amendments that could remove fiscal restraints and unleash a massive boost to military spending, which could ultimately reach up to €1.7 trillion. How much money is that? It's a cool €20,400 per man, woman, and child in Germany. Germany is back, indeed, but not exactly in a way anyone hoped for.

It's the 1930s all over again, and it's not just Germany. In France, Emmanuel Macron too is looking to boost the military-industrial complex, along with France's nuclear arsenal and future hypersonic missiles. Across the channel, Sir Keir is obsessing about conscriptions, scotching up "coalitions of the willing," and sending British troops to Ukraine. The EU is driving to rearm Europe and hijack ten trillion euros of European savings to militarize the old continent.

 » For the naturally cautious German nation to become a bunch of cannibals, 
it first had to sink into the economic misery and moral oppression of the 1920s. «
[...] The cost of this bonanza might come in the guise of early death for their children, who'll be forced to fight our future wars as, to paraphrase Herr Merz, they make their "great contribution to the defense of freedom and peace in Europe." Of course, we can trust the slogans; Merz is a BlackRock man, and all he wants is what’s best for all of us, without regard to the many billions BlackRock invested in Ukraine. It’s not about money, you see, it’s about freedom and peace.  
 
The moment French fighter jets collided during a training session.
Pilots ‘found unconscious’ - March 25, 2025. 
 
After all, when was the blood of innocents spilled for anything less than such lofty goals like civilization, enlightenment, progress, democracy, freedom, and peace? The fact that the whole juggernaut always turns out to be so profitable for all the usual suspects must be one of those mystery virtuous cycles of civilizational progress. They mobilize capital to defend peace and freedom, and then they make out like bandits every time!
 
 
"Britain is now outstripped only by Germany in its preparations for war with Russia. The soon-to-be new German Chancellor, Merz, has told the German people that they must spend 800 billion euros more on weapons for the coming war with Russia. This is the Russia that, only two years ago, was supplying Germany with cheap and dependable gas, on which their entire industrial and economic strength had been built." — George Galloway, March 23, 2025

See also:

Bullish Weekly Price Action in US Stock Indices & Stats | Guilherme Tavares

From a price action perspective, the latest weekly close was quite bullish. Since the 70s, there have been few instances when the SPX reclaimed its 50-week MA within just 1 week after losing it, having previously been in an upward trend.


Average return 5 weeks later: 2.95%, positive 83% of the time.

 
 NYA, SPY, ES, S&P 500, NQ, YM (weekly candles): 
Weekly Pivots and Retracement Levels.
 
Wednesday, March 26: Continuation or Reversal?
 
Frank Ochoa (March 25, 2025) - Pre-Market Video:
Last Week Compression. This Week Bullish Expansion?
(video)


 Oppenheimer: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Trajectory (2020-2025): 
Buy March 23. From April high sideways-to-down into mid May low.

BoA: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Pattern (2015-2025): 
"Buy April Dip for May Rip."
 
Jeff Hirsch: April is the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and
fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good.
 
Support is now 5800
 
Tom Pizzuti (March 25, 2025: "I’m not wholly certain that the wave iii low was set on
March 13th. and thus, open to a new low to complete iii. Of course, I could be wrong."
 
Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.
 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%