Thursday, November 28, 2024

Trump’s Coming War on BRICS and the Global South | Pepe Escobar

The incoming Trump 2.0 administration is expected to intensify US economic and geopolitical strategies against BRICS and their growing global network. Trump's actions will likely resemble earlier colonial approaches, involving covert regime-change operations, military pressure and intervention, and economic incentives to undermine BRICS and protect US control over resources such as oil and rare earth minerals. The goal is to prevent the new, multipolar world order that reduces US hegemony. This will shape US-BRICS relations and have significant implications for the entire Global South. 
 
Trump's swampy 'realist' approach to international relations contrasts with Biden's 'liberal' approach, primarily in that Trump openly defines the national interest as global, full-spectrum American military and economic dominance, asserting that all wars, sanctions, tariffs, and 'great deals' benefiting his donor class and billionaire peers would also be acceptable to his MAGA crowd of 'hard-working Americans.'  
 
 Goodbye, America. The cheating game of YOU counterfeiters is over.

His administration will aim to sanction any country bypassing the US dollar in trade, targeting the de-dollarization trend supported by BRICS. The de-dollarization movement, gaining momentum, challenges US financial dominance, with BRICS countries increasingly using national currencies and the Petroyuan, and exploring alternative payment systems. 

Marco Rubio will attempt to overthrow the governments
of Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia and seize control of their resources.
 
One of the major risks of a Trump 2.0 administration will be the attempt to destabilize the growing connectivity corridors across Eurasia, which are crucial for the strategic partnerships between Russia, China, India, and Iran. These corridors are part of two key axes: a horizontal one spanning across the Heartland from China to the West, including Central Asia, West Asia, and potentially extending to Europe (BRI), and a North-South axis connecting Russia, Iran, and India through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This development is critical to Eurasian integration. 
 
As the United States observes these emerging networks, and it sees its influence in Eurasia waning, particularly as BRICS and associated countries assert themselves. In the long term, this shift threatens America's presence and influence, not only in Eurasia but also in Africa. Africa and Latin America remain more complex due to entrenched regimes and comprador elites that support US interests. Overall, this represents a broader bipartisan struggle by Washington against the integration of Eurasia and the Global South, which undermines the unipolar world order that the US has historically maintained.

 
In Latin America, Venezuela, a quasi BRICS country, economically aligned with China, Russia, Türkiye, and Iran, remains a major obsession for the US, which is expected to escalate sanctions and covert actions to oust the Maduro government in order to gain access to the world's largest reserves of hydrocarbons, to gold, bauxite, iron ore, uranium, diamonds, and rare earth elements. Bolivia, which has the world's largest lithium reserves and is rich in natural gas, tin, silver, and copper, will be treated in a similar fashion by the US. Washington think tanks still consider Brazil a 'swing state,' and controlling the policies of South America's industrial giant remains central to US efforts to limit and sabotage BRICS in the region.
 
 Spotted in Caracas, October 2024.
 
However, in recent years, US attempts at assassinations, regime change, maximum pressure sanctions, hybrid wars of all sorts, and the installation of puppet leaders like Jeanine Áñez, Juan Guaidó, María Corina Machado, and Edmundo González have become increasingly unsuccessful (with Javier Milei or Daniel Noboa appearing more as temporary exceptions). And China, Russia, and Iran will not simply allow Venezuela being looted by Trump, Musk, Rubio, Prince, and other swamp creatures from South Florida.
 
»
Facts have proven that the US is the biggest source of chaos in the international system [...] From Afghanistan to Iraq, 
from Ukraine to Gaza, all these crises and conflicts are the result of the self-serving double standards of the US. « 
— Jing Jianfeng, Lieutenant General of China’s People’s Liberation Army, Singapore, June 16, 2024.
 
Saudi Arabia's shift toward full BRICS membership would mark a major change in global financial power. Trump will likely apply diplomatic pressure or sanctions such as asset-freezing to prevent this, as US influence over global oil markets is already diminishing rapidly. Africa will see intensified efforts to counter mainly China’s and Russia’s investments in infrastructure and energy. Also, Trump will likely increase sanctions and, eventually, together with the French and the British, support destabilization, e.g., by terrorist jihadis, as well as blackmail, assassination, and regime-change tactics to prevent further integration of African nations with BRICS.
 
»
The US is at war with the rest of the world [...] the war in Syria is a microcosm of World War 3  through proxies. «
— Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, November 28, 2024.
 

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

20-Year High in Insider Selling Precedes Market Top | Adam Taggart

Insider selling is often early.

The highest bars in the chart above (ratio of sellers to buyers) seem to come before the final major price tops in the S&P 500. The ratio of insider selling to buying is now at a 20+ year high:
 
1. Stocks are at an all-time high.
2. Corporate executives are selling far more stock than they are buying.
3. It doesn't take a genius to see that the insiders are cashing out while the getting is good,
     leaving everyone else to be the patsy when the rug pull arrives.


 
Over the past 50 years, the Nasdaq has only experienced one instance (2011) where it was negative both on the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving. Out of the 9 negative Wednesdays recorded during this period, the Nasdaq posted a positive return on 8 Fridays after Thanksgiving, with an average Friday gain of 1.39% and a median gain of 0.83%.
 

DJIA and S&P Bullish Into Year-End, with Bouts of Profit Taking | Day Hagan

In the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500, near-term resistance exists within bullish price channels, as negative A/D Line divergences are resolved. The bulls remain in control, but we are watching for signs that the post-election market action signals the beginning of a transition to a choppier 2025. Large-, mid-, and small-cap proxies didn’t come close to filling the upside gap created by the election results, nor did they break below their recent topside breakout ranges and levels. I view this as supportive (bullish) in the near term. It also suggests that the recent low serves as the first level of short-term support.

DJIA and S&P 500 (daily bars). Short-term resistance is still in place. When coupled 
with high levels of “Excessive Optimism”, bouts of profit-taking shouldn’t be surprising. Mind the gaps.

Have equities brought forward the historically bullish returns of the fourth quarter following elections? Are we at risk of such an occurrence? While I still believe there will be instances of profit-taking as we approach year-end, I consider seasonal charts to be secondary; they are not as significant as primary indicators and models.

The Dow Industrials' Four-Year Presidential Cycle suggests a choppy start to 2025, with weakness in the latter part of the 
first presidential year extending into the second year—an outlook that has not been widely discussed on Wall Street.
 
The bull market typically continues into the first year after an election, but the first two years tend to be rocky. Many bear markets begin in the first year and persist into the midterm election year, as seen with the bear market that started in 2021 and continued into 2022. Therefore, looking ahead, prudence suggests adopting an investment strategy that objectively manages risk.

 
The typical December Seasonal Pattern starts off dull and pops mid-month.

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Support Holds on S&P 500, Bullish Pattern Targets 6,100s | Stephen Suttmeier


First support shifts slightly to the 5870s-5850s area on the S&P 500, which bent but did not decisively break last week. Continuing to hold this support would keep the pattern bullish, with upside potential to the July-September cup and handle. The early 2022 to early 2024 big base breakout targets are into the 6,100s. The cup and handle breakout and retest zone at 5,700-5,650 offers additional support.


The S&P 500 advance-decline (A-D) line reached a new high on Friday (11/22), and the NYSE Composite stocks A-D line hit a new high yesterday (11/25). This neutralizes the mid-October to early November bearish divergences for these market breadth indicators. It also provides bullish confirmation for the new highs on the NYSE and serves as a potential leading indicator for new highs on the S&P 500, increasing the likelihood of following bullish seasonality into year-end.

Stephen Suttmeier, November 26, 2024 [HERE], and [HERE]
 

Trend-wise, while the cap-weighed S&P 500 continues to float above its trendline, the chart above shows that the index is only two standard deviations above trend. At major extremes it can reach three standard deviations.

Monday, November 25, 2024

Trump's Plan to Ruin China │ Dmitry Skvortsov

Losses in the hundreds of billions of dollars may await China in the coming months – and it’s all because of a document that has just been adopted in the United States. Now, everything depends on the decision of the next White House administration and Donald Trump personally. What is at stake, and how does Trump want to squeeze China out of the American market?


The
U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) recommended stripping China of its Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. This move is intended to facilitate the introduction of the trade tariffs promised by Trump on Chinese goods. This is the first time that the USCC, in its annual report to Congress, has openly called for an end to a policy that has been a cornerstone of China’s economic rise over recent decades. In 2022, the Commission had proposed to Congress to temporarily suspend China's PNTR status if the U.S. Trade Representative determined that Beijing had failed to meet its World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations regarding market access.

The PNTR status was approved by Congress for China in 2000 in exchange for Beijing’s agreement to open its markets and liberalize trade practices before joining the WTO. This status obligates Washington to apply the same basic tariffs and privileges to Chinese goods as it does to most of its trade partners, in accordance with U.S. commitments under the WTO. It was also in October 2000 that Congress created the independent USCC, composed of 12 commissioners appointed by Congress. Its role was to monitor U.S.-China relations in trade and security and to provide annual reports to U.S. lawmakers on these issues.
 
  » In China, Tom Cotton wouldn’t even be a village chief. «

According to WTO rules, the U.S. can strip a country of trade advantages under exceptions for national security reasons. The Biden administration used this rationale when imposing sanctions on Russia after the start of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022 (without specifying what exactly constituted a national security threat to the U.S.). In relation to China, American lawmakers want to free their hands in advance, creating the possibility of imposing tariffs or sanctions without any conditions or timelines.

Last week, Representative John Moolenaar, a Republican from Michigan and chairman of the House China Committee, introduced a bill to revoke China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations status. He cited U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai’s assessment that China still adheres to a 
"state-managed, non-market approach to its economy and trade," which contradicts WTO norms and principles. The bill is likely to gain support from Republicans, including Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Marco Rubio of Florida (Trump’s current nominee for Secretary of State), who were strong advocates for revoking PNTR for China during Trump’s first term. Democrats during Biden’s presidency also pressured China by limiting chip supplies and increasing military tensions between the two countries. However, Biden’s administration’s ultimate goal was to force Beijing to retreat and engage in what is called "decoupling."
 

In Washington’s interpretation, this would mean preserving a global economy where the U.S. would hinder the development of China's high-tech sectors while allowing it to continue earning revenue from supplying mass consumer goods to America. Chinese oligarchs were subtly hinted that they could return to a "business as usual" scenario if they could deal with Xi Jinping and avoid interfering in high-tech areas.

The Trumpist position is different. They want to strengthen America’s industrial power, even if it requires sacrificing the interests of global financial conglomerates and the very existence of a unified global economy. In this scenario, Chinese products would be forcefully squeezed out of the U.S. and several countries crucial to American economic interests. Whether China will find alternative markets to replace the U.S. is of little concern.

In a report published Tuesday, November 19, the Commission justified its recommendation to Congress to revoke PNTR status by stating that it 
"allows China to benefit from the same trade terms as U.S. allies despite its practices of intellectual property theft and market manipulation." Among the Commission's findings is also a recommendation for Congress to revoke the de minimis exception for e-commerce goods. This provision, enshrined in U.S. trade law, allows goods worth less than $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free and with less oversight from regulatory agencies. USCC experts refer to statements by U.S. officials that the "de minimis loophole" used by Chinese e-commerce companies like Shein and Temu harms U.S. jobs and could allow Chinese companies to deliver illegal products, including materials related to fentanyl.

China's Four Red Lines: Xi's warning to Biden and Trump.
November 17, 2024.
 
The recommended revocation of PNTR status would enable a Trump administration to increase tariffs on a wide range of Chinese products. Additionally, without this status, China could face annual reviews of its trade practices, as was the case before PNTR was granted. As USCC commissioner Jacob Helberg stated, "Increasing tariffs on Chinese industrial goods will accelerate the return of supply chains to the U.S., which aligns with President-elect Donald Trump's argument for imposing universal tariffs on imports."

The Chinese Embassy in Washington immediately responded to the recommendations in the USCC report. 
"Attempts to return U.S.-China trade and economic relations to the Cold War era violate WTO rules and will only harm the mutual interests of both countries and undermine the global economy," said embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu.

In 2023, China's exports to the U.S. amounted to $448 billion (compared to $505.6 billion in 2017). China has already been surpassed by Mexico ($480 billion) and is only slightly ahead of Canada ($429 billion). U.S. imports from China totaled $147 billion. In this regard, China ranks third, behind NAFTA  (USMCA) countries Canada ($352 billion) and Mexico ($323 billion). The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2023 was an unprecedented $301 billion, and it could increase by 4.4% this year.

If Trump imposes the 60% tariff he has promised (which would be easy to do if the USCC's proposal is adopted), the volume of Chinese goods entering the U.S. will drop sharply. China’s trade surplus with America will also shrink drastically. Even for Chinese companies that don’t leave the U.S. market, profitability will plummet. For those for whom the U.S. market is effectively closed, things will be much harder. Bankruptcy of a number of companies, mass layoffs, and decreased budget revenues are possible.

Quoted from:

Friday, November 22, 2024

Two Years of +20% Gains for the S&P 500: What's Next? │ Michael Hartnett

Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, notes that the S&P 500 is on track for a +20% return in two consecutive years. This has occurred only four times in the past 150 years: 1927/28, 1935/36, 1954/55, and 1995/96. 
 

Historical analysis of returns in the following two years reveals two key insights:
  1. The S&P 500 is likely to experience another significant double-digit move in 2025.
  2. Falling bond yields may serve as the "secret sauce" that helps the S&P 500 avoid the substantial reversals seen in 1929/30, 1937/38, and 1956/57, potentially catalyzing further significant equity gains, similar to what occurred in 1997/98.
 
 

See also:

JFK: Last Independent POTUS & War Against the Deep State │ Gerry Nolan

On November 22, 1963, as John F. Kennedy's motorcade rolled through Dallas, the world witnessed the violent silencing of a leader who dared to challenge the clandestine forces steering global affairs. Kennedy's assassination was not merely the result of the Bay of Pigs debacle or Mafia entanglements; it was the culmination of his audacious attempts to dismantle the shadowy architectures of power, notably the CIA and the Mossad, and to confront Israel's ambitions that threatened global stability.

  » The Deep State's machinations have led us to the brink. «

Kennedy's presidency marked a rare epoch of genuine independence in American leadership. He recognized the peril posed by Israel's clandestine nuclear program at Dimona, understanding that an unchecked nuclear arsenal in the Middle East would ignite a proliferation cascade, destabilizing the region and beyond. In a series of correspondences with Israeli Prime Ministers David Ben-Gurion and Levi Eshkol, Kennedy was unyielding, demanding transparency and regular inspections of the Dimona facility. He warned that the United States' unwavering support for Israel would be jeopardized absent compliance. This confrontation was not merely diplomatic posturing; it was a battle for the soul of international security.

Israel's refusal to sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) stands in stark contrast to nations like Iran, which, despite relentless vilification, remains a signatory. The hypocrisy is glaring: Israel, with its opaque nuclear capabilities, operates with impunity, while Iran faces sanctions and threats over its civilian nuclear ambitions. Kennedy foresaw this duplicity and sought to prevent a nuclear-armed Middle East, understanding that such an outcome would edge humanity closer to annihilation.

Today, as the Doomsday Clock ticks perilously close to midnight, the echoes of Kennedy's warnings resound with haunting clarity. The Deep State's machinations have led us to the brink, with proxy wars and covert operations serving as the lifeblood of a military-industrial complex devoid of accountability. The very entities Kennedy sought to dismantle have metastasized, embedding themselves into the fabric of global governance, perpetuating conflicts from Ukraine to Lebanon that inch us ever closer to the abyss.

 
Message to NATO: Don’t Poke the Russian Bear.
Simeon Boikov, November 22, 2024.

Kennedy's assassination was not just the silencing of a man but the suppression of a vision, a vision of a world where sovereign nations could pursue peace without the overhanging threat of clandestine nuclear proliferation. His death marked the triumph of the very forces he sought to contain, setting a precedent for the unchecked expansion of covert agencies and the normalization of state-sponsored subterfuge.
 
 
America's Desperate Gamble In Ukraine. IIR, November 22, 2024
 
In commemorating Kennedy's legacy, we must confront the uncomfortable truths he illuminated. The path to midnight is paved with the complicity of those who turn a blind eye to the hypocrisies of nuclear apartheid and the unchecked power of intelligence agencies. To honor his memory is to rekindle the fight against these insidious forces, to demand transparency, and to strive for a world where the specter of nuclear annihilation is not wielded as a tool of geopolitical strategy.

As we stand on the precipice, let us remember Kennedy's courage in facing the hidden hands that steer our world. Let us channel that bravery to challenge the status quo, to expose the hypocrisies, and to pull humanity back from the brink. The clock is ticking, but the legacy of resistance endures.

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Totally Bananas

 
Someone just paid $6.2 million for a banana duct-taped to a wall and plans to eat it.

Nvidia Before & After ChatGPT │ Phil Rosen

Similar to what happened last quarter, the world’s largest stock fell more than 2.5% in overnight trading following the blowout earnings report.
 
Earnings per share: $0.81, beating estimates for $0.74, up 103% from a year ago.
Revenue: $35.1 billion, beating estimates for $33.2 billion, up 94% from a year ago.
Nvidia’s Q4 revenue forecast: $37.5 billion (±2%), beating estimates for $37 billion.
 
The following chart is worth revisiting every earnings report, as it becomes more extreme with each update: 

 Nvidia had risen 192% year-to-date as of Wednesday's close.


$NVDA is flashing in our buyer's frenzy indicator again. This is tactical, but suggests upside 
expectations are extraordinarily high/priced in. — RenMac, November 20, 2024.

Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally Trade │ Jeff Hirsch

Thanksgiving [Thursday, November 28] kicks off a run of solid bullish seasonal patterns. November-January is the year’s best consecutive 3-month span (2025 STA p. 149). Then there’s the January Effect (2025 STA p. 112 & 114) of small caps outperforming large caps in January, which begins in mid-December.

 » Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. «

And of course, the "Santa Claus Rally," (2025 STA p. 118) invented and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Almanac. Often confused with any Q4 rally, it is defined as the short, sweet rally that covers the last 5 trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year. Yale also coined the phrase: "If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall."

We have combined these seasonal occurrences into a single trade: Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. Since 1950, S&P 500 has been up 79.73% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the 2nd trading day of the year with an average gain of 2.58%. Russell 2000 is up 77.78% of the time since 1979, average gain 3.34%.

 
 » From November 5 to December 31, the average return of the S&P 500 has been 2.68%; Nasdaq 100 5.53%, 
and Russell 2000 5.7%. In election years S&P 500 3.38%; Nasdaq 100 0.79%, and Russell 2000 7.94%. «
 

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Germany at the Crossroads: It’s the System, Stupid │ Gerry Nolan

Germany, once Europe’s industrial juggernaut, now stumbles in a state of managed decline. With elections looming, the theatre is set. But let’s be clear: this isn’t about who wins, but whether Germans can reject the system that’s strangling their sovereignty. Because unless they do, these elections are nothing more than a distraction, a masterclass in divide-and-conquer.
 
» Know your enemy. «
  Sun Tzu.
 
Scenario 1: Banning AfD, A Gamble with Fire
Banning AfD wouldn’t be a show of strength but a desperate move to silence over a quarter of the electorate, especially in the former DDR where resentment still burns over decades of economic neglect. Friedrich Merz, obedient globalist and former BlackRock operative, would become Chancellor. The result? More war, deindustrialization, and blind subservience to the US. But silencing AfD won’t kill populism, it’ll fuel it. BSW would emerge as the strongest opposition, carrying the banner for those abandoned by the establishment.

  » Election isn’t about who governs. «

Scenario 2: AfD Grows, But the System Holds
AfD and CDU dominate the elections, but the anti-AfD cordon sanitaire holds. Merz scrambles to cobble together a coalition with Greens and SPD, a circus of contradictions. Meanwhile, AfD becomes the largest opposition party, and with BSW rising in tandem, Germany’s parliament turns into a warzone of populist resistance.
 
But the cracks widen as Germany faces three brutal realities: NATO’s inevitable defeat in Ukraine, an economic crisis fueled by sanctions and energy dependency, and mounting unrest from a population tired of being sacrificed on the altar of vassalage. 
 
Scenario 3: AfD Triumphs – The System Strikes Back
An AfD victory would trigger nothing short of institutional war. Mockingbird media, and globalist puppeteers would unleash chaos: mass protests, endless scandals, “mystery” corruption charges, and lawfare targeting AfD leaders. Color revolution tactics, international condemnation, and Soros-funded street movements would all be in play.
 
»
It’s the System, Stupid. «
 
These scenarios expose a single rigged system. This election isn’t about who governs, it’s about maintaining control while gaslighting the public into thinking change is possible. Divide and conquer, with AfD voters demonized as extremists and BSW supporters dismissed as utopian dreamers, all while the establishment engineers the decline.

Here’s the uncomfortable reality: Germany’s democracy is theatre, scripted to ensure one outcome, continued vassalage to Washington. The Nord Stream sabotage was a declaration of US dominance over Europe. Germany’s leaders didn’t even flinch. Their silence was an endorsement of their own country’s humiliation.

If Germans want real change, it’s not about winning elections within a rigged system, it’s about rejecting the system itself. Imagine a post-SMO world where Germany reclaims sovereignty, realigns with Russia and China, and embraces BRICS. Imagine restoring its industrial base, securing cheap energy, and forging a just peace in Europe. This isn’t a fantasy, it’s a choice. But to make it, Germans must first wake up to the fact that their political elite serves Washington, not Berlin.

» Yankee, Go Home «German cry for sovereignty.
 
The 80’s saw mass protests demanding the removal of US missiles and troops. It’s time for Germans to rediscover that spirit, to say "Yankee, go home" and reclaim their sovereignty. NATO has turned Europe into an American buffer, draining its resources, compromising its security, and hijacking its future.

A sovereign Germany could help lead Europe in a multipolar world, standing with the Global Majority rather than kneeling before the US. The alternative? Continued decline, economic ruin, and an electorate manipulated into fighting itself while the true oppressors profit from the chaos. The real question isn’t about CDU, AfD, or BSW, but whether Germans can see through the charade. The rigged script won’t save them; only rejecting NATO servitude and imagining a future aligned with the Global Majority can.



See also: