The 8 Most Common Chart Patterns & How to Trade Them | Aksel Kibar

I've simplified classical chart patterns to the most basic/common 8 patterns. I think most new patterns are derived from those basic ones. Our brains' pattern recognition is not that advanced to focus on so many derivatives. In fact better success can be achieved by narrowing down the below to select few.

 

 

There are 3 Types of Triangles: The symmetrical triangle, the ascending triangle and the descending triangle. Between those three I favor ascending and descending triangles for couple of reasons. One of them is, both ascending and descending triangles have horizontal boundaries. Breakouts through the horizontal boundaries are the chart pattern signal. The other reason is that, both ascending and descending triangles have directional bias due to their upward and downward sloping lower and upper boundaries. I find symmetrical triangles difficult to trade as price usually finds resistance at the minor highs following the breakout. Pause around minor resistance usually hampers the momentum and can result in more frequent failures. A symmetrical triangle has both boundaries converging towards an apex. It is a neutral chart pattern and doesn’t have a directional bias.

 

 » The Head and Shoulder Continuation (H&S Continuation) is one of my favorite chart pattern. «

 

There are 4 Types of Breakouts:

Type 1 Breakout = Breakout without any Re-Test/Pullback.
Type 2 Breakout = Breakout with a Re-Test/Pullback.
Type 3 Breakout = Breakout followed by hard Re-Test of Pattern Boundary.
Type 4 Breakout = Failed Breakout  - Price fails to continue in the breakout's direction and instead reverses. 

 

 

 

 

 

Breakout Type 1, Type 2, and Type 3 Summary.

 

 

 Head & Shoulder Top Failure acting as Bullish Continuation.

 

Cup & Handle as a Continuation Pattern in an Uptrend.

 

Rectangle as a Continuation Pattern in an Uptrend.

Symmetrical Triangle as a Continuation Pattern in an Uptrend.

 

Several Bullish Chart Patterns in an Uptrend.

Rectangle Bullish Reversal.

 

Rectangle Bullish Continuation.
 

The latest stats on pattern reliability: Rectangle continues to lead. With good risk management Type 1 & Type 2 breakouts offered edge with pattern signals.

 

 

Reference:

Aksel Kibar @ X

Aksel Kibar - YouTube Channel.

Aksel Kibar - Tech Charts Blog.
Richard Schabacker (1934) - Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits.
Robert D. Edwards & John Magee (1948) - Technical Analysis of Stock Trends.
Peter L. Brandt & Bruce Babcock Jr. (1990) - Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns.

Peter L. Brandt (2011) - Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader: Lessons from 21 Weeks of Real Trading.

Stacey Burke (2015-2024) - Best Chart Patterns & Trading Setups for End-of-Day, Short-Term-, and Day-Trading. (videos)

 

 

 From Peter Brandt's foreword to the 2021 Harriman House re-edition of 

Richard Schabacker's 'Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits'.

A New High in May - Makes the Fall Rally a Strong Play | Wayne Whaley

On Wednesday, May 15, 2024, the S&P closed at 5308.15 which was a new All Time High.  Given that 50% type Bear Markets can take years to erase, I often fancy '12 Month High' as to 'All Time High' scans as they capture the same market characteristics while providing a larger sample size.

Since 1950, there have been 27 prior years of those 74 in which a High for the rolling year was set in May. In those 27 cases, the following June-December performance was 23-4 for an avg 7.58%, seven month gain. The 10% moves during the final seven months of those 27 calendar years were 12-0 to the positive side.  

The fall rally I reference is Aug25-Dec8 with 26 wins after a May High vs on fractional loss.  The scan deemed June21-July01 as the weakest period with a 12-14 mark for a modest 0.26% avg loss.

 

Wayne Whaley - May 18, 2024

 

See also:
Robert Miner (April 26, 2024) - The S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle.

Prosecute / Fauci | Elon Musk

Fun Fact #1 - Dr. Anthony Fauci is NOT Jewish.

 

 

 Fun Fact #2 - The Goyim do NOT know.

 

 

  Fun Fact #3 - The ADL does NOT complain.

Fun Fact #4 - Jeffrey Epstein WAS a beloved American financier, broker, and educator.

 

Fun Fact #5 - The list of names in Jeffrey Epstein's 'Little Black Book' of US Mossad assets includes

Anthony Fauci, Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, Robert Kennedy Jr., Elon Musk, and Donald Trump. 

 

 

Fun Fact #6 - Zionist US mainstream media do NOT mention Ghislaine Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein were Mossad agents, 

and suggest William Henry 'Bill' Gates III is NOT a deranged eugenicist but a benevolent philanthropist. 

 

 

 Fun Fact #7 - The Zionist entity awarded Dr. Fauci FOR 'Speaking Truth To Power'.

 

  

 Fun Fact #8 - Cluelessness prevails about WHO could have had imagined this.

 

Fun Fact #9 - This is » a flat-OUT lie. «

 

Fun Fact #10 - WHY Netanyahu thinks America is stupid.

Reference:

Sasha Latypova (February 28, 2024) - Pentagon Staged COVID-19 Plandemic Years in Advance.

Edward Dowd (February 13, 2024) - mRNA Vaccinated Dying of Cancer at ‘Explosive’ Rates.
M. Nathaniel Mead et al. (January 16, 2024) - COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines: Lessons Learned from the Global Vaccination Campaign.

Marwan Bishara (2023) - Why Netanyahu Thinks America Is Stupid.
J. Bart Classen (2022) - COVID-19 and Illegal US Bioweapons Activity, an Insider's Revelations.

Leland Nally (October 9, 2020) - I Called Everyone in Jeffrey Epstein’s Little Black Book.

China Sells Off Record Amount of Dollar Assets as US Remains World's Bully

China sold off a record $53.3 billion of Treasury and agency bonds in the first quarter of 2024, a move seen as part of Beijing’s drive to diversify from US dollar assets. This comes as gold's share in China's official reserves rose to 4.9% in April, the highest on record.

 

» It is a wise decision to diversify away from USD and to hold physical gold in your own country. «

Claudio Grass - May 18, 2024  

[...] This comes as Beijing vowed to retaliate against the Biden administration’s tough new levies on a wide array of Chinese-made goods, ranging from semiconductors and solar power cells to electric cars - the latest move in the escalating trade war between China and the US. The PRC’s Commerce Ministry warned that it would "take resolute measures to safeguard its own rights and interests" in response to the US’s 25-100% tariff hikes, accusing Washington of turning economic and trade issues into an instrument of "domestic political considerations." The warning followed the White House accusing China of "non-market policies and practices" resulting in "growing overcapacity and export surges that threaten to significantly harm American workers, businesses and communities."

 

 » And people expect interest rates to decline? «

Martin Armstrong - May 18, 2024

 

[...] Asked how the latest developments could affect the greenback on the global markets, Claudio Grass, an expert on monetary history, economics and an independent precious metals advisor based out of Switzerland, argued that "it will lead to the collapse of the USD and the current system. It is obvious that the Western civilization is being destroyed by their own corrupted and rotten political system and its rulers. The renewed politically enforced separation of the East and the West will lead to turmoil and chaos."

 

Quoted from:
Oleg Brunov (May 18, 2024) - China Sells Off Record Amount of Dollar Assets as US Remains the 'World's Bully’.

 

See also:

Emil Cosman (May 18, 2024) - China leaves West's financial system. Sells record amount of Dollar Assets. De-Dollarization. (video)

Col. Jacques Baud (May 18, 2024) - Putin and Xi's Shocking Alliance and Huge Trouble for the US. (video)

Pepe Escobar (May 13, 2024) - Welcome to the UNIT - The De-Dollarization Bombshell. 

Egon von Greyerz (November 27, 2023) - The Financial System Has Reached The End.

The Great Awakening vs the Great Reset

 70th Bilderberg Club Meeting in Madrid from May 30th to June 2nd, 2024.

Support the shark!

ICT Classic Expansion Week & TGIF Setup | Michael J. Huddleston

Classic Expansion Week = Tuesday Low/High of the Week and Thursday High/Low of the Week. 

 

 

Weekly Profiles for Daily Bias

 

 

 Take profit targets of the TGIF Setup: 20-30% of the weekly range.

 

 

TGIF Setup - 3 Step Framework

Reference:

AM Trades (2023) - The Weekly Profile Guide.

Darya Filipenka (2023) - Implementing Economic Calendar Events.
Darya Filipenka (2023) - ICT T.G.I.F. (Thank God It's Friday) Setup.

Michael J. Huddleston (2015) - ICT Weekly Range Profiles. 

S&P 500 Cycles - Top May 25th [+/-] & Correction into Mid-June | Martin Biber

The medium-term cycle (orange) shows a top around the 25th of May [+/-]. The short-term cycle is topping and has another down-up move into the late May cycle top. After that, we should expect a two to five-week setback before a new uptrend starts.

 

 

[My approach only needs a few daily data points to adjust to a new situation.]

Quoted from:
Martin Biber (May 16, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycles - Short-Term Correction.

 

S&P 500 Voids Potential ABC Correction | Robert Miner

S&P 500 voids potential ABC correction. Bear Reversal signal not made. 

Short term high probable by Friday, May 17th. But decline should be corrective not impulsive.

Robert Miner - May 15, 2024

 

See also:
Robert Miner (April 26, 2024) - The S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle.

S&P 500 Major High on May 23-24 | Allen Reminick

After a high on Tuesday, May 14th the S&P 500 might go sideways to down into Monday, May 20th. The final swing up should occur between May 20th and May 23rd-24th, and could eventually reach above 5,330.

Next should be a first low on June 3rd and another one on June 13th, followed by a rally into June 25th or even through the July 4th weekend. The big move down should be right after July 4th and the more important intermediate swing low on July 24th-26th.

Even if the market now breaks for a couple of months, we are expecting 4,600 in the S&P 500 this year and the long-term uptrend to resume in August 2025.

Reference:
Allen Reminick (May 14, 2024) - S&P High is Near. (video) 

Welcome to the UNIT - The De-Dollarization Bombshell | Pepe Escobar

Welcome to the UNIT – a concept that has already been discussed by the financial services and investments working group set up by the BRICS+ Business Council and has a serious shot at becoming official BRICS+ policy as early as in 2025.

  » The UNIT is a new form of international currency that can be issued 

in a de-centralized way, and then recognized and regulated at national level.  «

[...] The Global Majority has had enough of the centrally controlled monetary framework put in place 80 years ago in Bretton Woods and its endemic flaws: chronic deficits fueling irresponsible military spending; speculative bubbles; politically motivated sanctions and secondary sanctions; abuse of settlement and payment infrastructure; protectionism; and the lack of fair arbitration. In contrast, the UNIT proposes a reliable, quick and economically efficient solution for cross-border payments. The - transactional - UNIT is a game-changer as a new form of international currency that can be issued in a de-centralized way, and then recognized and regulated at national level.

  » Decoupling money from politics will undoubtedly offer unique opportunities 

for fair trade and investments across the globe removing economic bypasses created by 

political power plays and irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies.  «

The strength of the UNIT, conceptually, is to remove direct dependency on the currency of other nations, and to offer especially to the Global Majority a new form of apolitical money - with huge potential for anchoring fair trade and investments. It is indeed a new concept in terms of an international currency - anchored in gold (40%) and BRICS+ currencies (60%). It is neither crypto nor stablecoin. [...] The endgame is that everyone, essentially, may use the UNIT for accounting, bookkeeping, pricing, settling, paying, saving and investing.

Quoted from:
Pepe Escobar (May 13, 2024) - De-Dollarization Bombshell: The Coming of BRICS+ Decentralized Monetary Ecosystem. 

 

See also:

The UNIT Foundation (May 9, 2023) - The UNIT White Paper.

Russia Needs to Change Its Nuclear Doctrine | Sergey A. Karaganov

So there is the option of our nuclear strike on Ukraine.

Sergey A. Karaganov: Such an option theoretically exists. But I am completely against it. People there have been deceived, but in many ways these are our people. However if we do not change our nuclear doctrine, then NATO can use nuclear weapons against Belarus, which is absolutely unacceptable to us. This is why we should quickly change our outdated, idealistic, and largely carefree doctrine regulating the use of nuclear weapons, which is based on the principles and postulates of the past. And we should also redeploy our armed forces. Some steps are already being made in this regard. Our doctrine states that we can only use nuclear weapons in the event of a mortal threat to our state and statehood.

 » Many of the Western elites lost their sense of self-preservation. Their intellectual level has fallen sharply 

– especially in Europe. The situation is somewhat better in the United States. There seem to exist remnants 

of a strategically-minded political class. But obviously they are not running the show. «
Sergey A. Karaganov - May 9, 2024.

But we have already deployed our nuclear weapons in Belarus. It should be used there long before such a mortal threat arises. The enemy must know that we are ready to use nuclear weapons in response to any attack on our territory, including bombing. It is up to the President to make the final decision. But we need to untie our hands. We must understand that we and all of Europe are doomed to a long war unless we clearly change our policy in this area. And we will also be doomed to exhaustion and maybe even defeat. But most importantly, the world will be doomed to the Third World War. We must eliminate this threat. This is our national mission. And secondly, this is the mission of the Russian people as the savior of humankind, which we always have been.

 

 May 9, 2024.

I understand that there will be no nuclear war with America. They love themselves too much. But anything is possible with Europe, which has completely gone off its rocker. In what order should we hit them? Poland, Germany, Great Britain, and the Czech Republic are obviously the first countries that come to mind. Well, France, too, of course.

I really would not like things to go that way. Yes, we will send them to hell. But by doing so we will pave the way for huge moral losses for ourselves. Nuclear weapons are God’s weapons. It’s a scary choice. But God punished Sodom and Gomorrah, which had got mired in madness and profligacy, with a rain of fire. I pray to God that we do not have to take such a step. But it’s about saving the country and the world. You correctly named Poland and Germany. The Baltic countries and Romania could be next. But, I repeat, God forbid!

  May 9, 2024.

 

Why Romania?

Because a large flow of military cargo goes to Ukraine through them. They have set up training centers. They host a large contingent of American troops [...] We must ultimately make sure that Europe can never threaten us again. Well, someday we will cooperate with some European countries and even be friends with them. We do not reject the best European roots in ourselves, and we will take them with us along our main road to the South and the East, to Greater Eurasia.

What about Great Britain?

It does not pose a direct military threat to us. They just habitually befoul, but that’s all.

 

Quoted from:

Sergey A. Karaganov (May 3, 2024) - American Globalism is a Disease.
Interview originally published in Argumenty Nedeli newspaper (№17, 914). 

 

» Why is it OK for America to drop two nukes on Japan to end their existential war? 

I thought it was OK. So Israel, do whatever you have to do to survive as Jewish state! « 

US Senator Lindsey Graham - Mai 9, 2024.
 

 

» If Ukraine falls, it will be a catastrophe for the West! It will put an end to the Western hegemony! 

And we will have no one to blame for it but ourselves. «

Ex UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson - May 9, 2024.

See also:

Sergey A. Karaganov (May 9, 2024) - Geopolitical Paradigm Shifts and Coping with Psychopaths.

ICT T.G.I.F. (Thank God It's Friday) Setup | Darya Filipenka

Algorithmic trading is a method of executing trades using pre-programmed instructions or algorithms that automatically trigger trades based on certain conditions. It's a fascinating approach that can help traders make more precise and efficient decisions. Now, let's focus on a specific algorithmic trading model called the TGIF (Thank God It's Friday) setup. This is a day-based algorithmic trading model that can be applied to all assets. As the name suggests, this model is designed to be used on Fridays. The TGIF setup focus is on a market pullback into the current weekly range. It is particularly effective when anchored against higher time frame analysis.

» In the last portion of Friday’s trading, if it hasn't occurred yet, you can expect some retracement of the weekly range. «

Michael J. Huddleston, 2023

When using the TGIF setup it's crucial to approach from a top-down perspective. This means starting with higher time frame analysis, such as monthly or weekly charts, to get a broader view of the market's direction. In candlestick analysis, there is a concept called the ICT Power of 3. This refers to a specific pattern and distribution phase that can indicate a potential reversal or exhaustion in the market. By studying the one-month chart, you identify the weekly range and its key levels. You apply Fibonacci levels to pinpoint the sweet spot where the TGIF setup is likely to occur. You also conduct top-down analysis by examining higher time frame charts to get a broader view of the market's direction. Keep an eye out for the ICT Silver Bullet formation. 

To apply the TGIF setup, follow these steps:

1. Start by analyzing the higher time frame charts, such as monthly or weekly charts, to get a broader view of the market's direction.
2. Identify the Weekly Range Profile and its key levels, such as the High and the Low of the range.
3. Use Fibonacci levels to pinpoint sweet spot where the TGIF setup is likely to occur.
4. Look for the pullback into the weekly range.
5. Pay attention to the ICT Power of 3 pattern in candlestick analysis, which can indicate potential reversals or exhaustion.
6. Keep an eye out for the ICT Silver Bullet formation, a powerful pattern that provides valuable insights into market dynamics.
7. Combine all these analysis techniques to make informed trading decisions using the TGIF setup.

Quoted from:
Darya Filipenka (2023) - Algorithmic Trading - TGIF.

 

Michael J. Huddleston (June 19, 2023) - The TGIF Setup.

 

See also: 
Michael J. Huddleston (September 27, 2022) - ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 07 - Defining Weekly Range Profiles. (video)

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Algorithmic Price Delivery & Time Macros Intro.

Daye (2024) - The Quarterly Theory.
TPR (2023) - The ICT Power of 3: Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution (AMD).
TPR (2022) - Daily Range = Accumulation + Manipulation + Expansion + Distribution (AMD).