China bigger Risk than Lehman, Greece, US Fiscal Problems?

Source: Torsten Sløk, Deutsche Bank Securities - found @ Barry Ritholtz

SPX vs Planetary Hours + SoLunar Intraday Map (Aug 25-26)

SPX (5 min. bars - Aug 25-26)

See also HERE

Times are EST (not EDT) - intraday HERE and daily HERE 

The Chart Whisperer Exlaining the Nature of this Crash

HERE

HERE

HERE

HERE

Shipping Indices Reflecting Real Economy

Baltic Dry Index (HERE)

These days shipping indices like the Baltic Dry Index (BDIY) and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) are the only real economic indicators not manipulated. They do not implode without larger malfunctions under the surface of the financial system. Oil, exports and manufacturing do not crumble without the weight of greater disaster bearing down.

The BDI is the main sea freight index at the Baltic Exchange for ships carrying dry bulk commodities. The BDI peaked out at 1,222 in early August and continued to drop to 994 points last Friday, mainly due to weak panamax rates. The overall index factors in average daily earnings of capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize dry bulk transport vessels. 

Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (HERE)

Data from the SCFI shows that shipping freight rates for transporting containers from ports in Asia to Northern Europe also dropped more than 20% since early August down to $ 674.54 per 20-foot container (TEU) last Friday. Freight rates on the world's busiest shipping route have tanked this year due to overcapacity in available vessels and sluggish demand for transported goods. Rates generally deemed profitable for shipping companies are at about US$800-US$1,000 per TEU.

U.S. Energy Consumption since 1776

Credits: EIA

SPX vs Mercury Speed

SPX vs AstroMetric Indicator

Based on a natal-chart approach. Short-term inversions occur; longer-term the indicator tends to nicely project market directions.
Astrology has what some call the rule of three. This says that for an astrological prediction to be true, one must be able to see
it expressed three ways. If one sees it once it is only a possibility, if one sees it twice, it becomes more likely, but if one can
see the same theme a third time, the prediction becomes a probability.

Eurodollar COT Signals Big Drop in Stocks Still Ahead | Tom McClellan

Credits: Tom McClellan

DJIA 2015 vs DJIA 2008

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution. For the methodology see HERE

DJIA 2015 vs DJIA 1885

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. For the methodology see HERE

Planetary Hours + Times of Rising, Culminating and Setting Planets

Times to watch Thursday, August 20, 2015 (EDT). Online calculators can be found HERE + HERE + HERE + HERE

SoLunar Intraday Maps - August 2015

The charts show the hourly solunar forces over Wall Street. Intraday movements of financial markets are strongly influenced 
by daily and intraday solunar forces. They usually closely follow their direction - either directly or inverted. Turning points can
be fine-tuned using the previously described planetary hours as well as the times of rising, culminating and setting planets.
Please note: The times calculated refer to EST (not EDT).

HERE

The Demographic Crash of Civilizations

According to the latest United Nations World Population Report, the current global population of 7.3 billion is projected to rise to 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 11.2 billion by 2100. Yet, perhaps the most significant development of the twenty-first century is not population growth, but the silent extinction of peoples, nations, cultures, and civilizations.

The so-called "developed world" is neglecting one of the most fundamental responsibilities of any enduring civilization: raising the next generation. Civilization, culture, social cohesion, and economic prosperity all depend on a basic prerequisite—continued human existence. Without reproduction, all other achievements ultimately become irrelevant.

 Prosperity, war, birth control, decadence, exploitation, austerity, abortion, and social decline are all mirrored in the changing age structure of the German population across the years 1910, 1970, 2009, and the projection for 2060. (HERE)

 

Take Germany as an example. The country has a population of approximately 82 million, with a fertility rate of 1.43—a figure that continues to decline. Of this population, around 17 million have a recent immigrant background, and roughly 22 million are retirees. Germany’s labor force still numbers about 40 million, but neoliberal reforms under the Schröder-Merkel governments have contributed to the marginalization of an estimated 11 to 18 million people, creating a socio-economic underclass.

Approximately 8 million working-age adults (18 to 65) are unable to sustain themselves—either unemployed or trapped in precarious, low-wage employment such as contract work, “One-Euro jobs,” part-time roles, mini-jobs, and other exploitative schemes tied to the Hartz labor market reforms. Around half a million Germans are homeless, many of them children, in a system where the remaining taxpayers finance what can only be described as institutionalized social neglect.

The average worker surrenders nearly two-thirds of their gross income to taxation, while the state has poured €400 billion into rescuing failing banks and continues to pay €100 million in daily interest on public debt. Within this socio-economic landscape, roughly 650,000 children are born each year—one-third to parents of immigrant backgrounds—compared to around 840,000 deaths annually, resulting in a net loss of nearly 200,000 people per year.

In essence, as it rapidly ages and grows poorer, Germany loses the equivalent of a mid-sized city every year. Official projections indicate the population will shrink to between 65 and 74 million by 2060, depending on annual net migration levels (ranging from 100,000 to 400,000). Meanwhile, demographic collapse among the native population continues, marked by a third of women remaining childless, over 200,000 abortions annually, and other structural factors contributing to a sustained decline in birth rates.

Combined with immigration policies perceived by critics as prioritizing replacement over integration, Germany faces the potential erasure of its historic national identity within this century. This trajectory is not unique; similar patterns can be observed across nearly all other European nations.
 

 The Pentagon’s all-season recipe for disaster—straight from the NATO playbook—consists of orchestrated regime changes and civil wars, which in turn trigger mass migration and the subsequent settlement of a globalized lumpenproletariat and refugee populations among 30 million unemployed and 120 million impoverished native Europeans. (HERE + HERE + HERE)

As of today, the global average fertility rate stands at 2.3, with 80% of the world’s population living in countries where women, on average, have fewer than three children. This means that global fertility is only marginally above the replacement level, and current population growth is primarily driven by increased life expectancy rather than high birth rates. In 1960, China’s fertility rate was 6.1; today it has fallen to 1.6. Iran’s fertility rate dropped from 6.3 in 1985 to 1.9 today. Thailand followed a similar trajectory: from 6.14 in 1955 to 3.92 in 1985, and down to 1.49 today.

The issue facing the developed world is not only economic stagnation but also demographic decline. Many nations are aging rapidly and experiencing fertility rates well below the replacement threshold—some have arguably passed the demographic point of no return. The lowest fertility rates globally are concentrated in the most industrialized regions of Asia: China (1.55), Japan (1.40), South Korea (1.25), Taiwan (1.11), Hong Kong (1.04), Macau (0.91), and Singapore (0.80). Similarly low, near-extinction fertility rates are seen in parts of Southern Europe and former Soviet states: Portugal (1.52), Spain (1.48), Italy (1.42), Greece (1.41), Poland (1.33), and Ukraine (1.30).

In contrast, Africa remains demographically youthful. In 2015, children under 15 made up 41% of its population, with another 19% aged 15 to 24. Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as much of Asia—regions that have seen substantial fertility declines—show smaller proportions of children (26% and 24%, respectively) and comparable shares of youth (17% and 16%). Together, these three regions were home to 1.7 billion children and 1.1 billion young people in 2015.

Source: UN DESA

 Source: CIA World Factbook.

Bull and Bear Markets in Oil 1861-2015

Credit Suisse notes that bear markets in oil prices last between 11 and 28 years, while bull markets typically last less than 10.

The Real Price of Gold

A “golden constant” perspective suggests a fair value price for gold of $825 an ounce (HERE)

Campbell R. Harvey (Aug 3, 2015) - Using the U.S. Consumer Price Index as an arbitrary, though conventional, fundamental driver of the price of gold, the high real price of gold has been about 8.73, the low real price of gold has been about 1.47 and the current real price of gold is about 4.63.

[...] There are at least two ways to think about the current historically high real price of gold. One is that the real price of gold may “mean revert” towards the horizontal rust colored line, the golden constant value for gold linked with the average real price of gold. Or it is also possible that all of “history is more or less bunk”, as Henry Ford once put it, reflecting an idea that bold investors and innovators were never slaves to history.

The Strangeloves, the Crazies and the Butchers

While President Obama was in Ethiopia addressing the African Union on the problem posed by ISIS, the clique of warmongers around General John R. Allen and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, began its deceptive bombing attacks against the Kurds of northern Syria, weakening the most effective opponents of ISIS. The front page of The Washington Post declared the air campaign will be expanded into a “safe-zone” along the Turkish-Syrian border that “could become a haven for civilians” — meaning ISIS and Nusra butchers disguised as the “Free Syrian Army”. Pushing ISIS away from the Turkish border, regardless of the semantic argument over whether it will be a buffer zone/safe zone/no-fly zone or “civilian haven” are all methods for achieving the same end: Any place along the Turkish-Syrian border put under the control of the NATO-Turkey-Saudi-Qatar Axis represented by General Allen would act as a smuggling route transporting ISIS fighters, money and equipment into Syria and oil or other resources out of there. Thierry Meyssan of the Voltaire Network is providing new revelations about the role of Turkish President Erdoğan as one of the top terrorist controllers running ISIS and parallel groups like al Qaeda:

War Cycles on the rise (HERE)

“[...] in order to care for the wounded ISIS jihadis, Erdoğan has created a secret hospital, outside of the combat zones, in the Turkish town of Şanlıurfa, not far north of the Turkish-Syrian border. This town was already the site of a secret Al Qaeda training camp. The wounded ISIS fighters are taken to this hospital in Turkish military vehicles by the MIT (Milli Istihbarat Teskilati or national intelligence organization). This hospital is under the personal supervision of Sümeyye Erdoğan, the daughter of President Erdoğan. She is also the director of international relations for the Erdoğan-Davutoğlu AKP Islamist party. In addition, according to Gürsel Tekin, the spokesman of the Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (Republican People’s Party), the crude oil stolen by ISIS is now being exported by BMZ Ltd., the shipping company controlled by Bilal Erdoğan, the son of President Erdoğan, in flagrant violation of Resolution 2170 of the United Nations Security Council.“ (HERE + HERE + HERE + HERE + HERE).

Marvels of Creation - The Sun and the Lunar Cycle

This Persian manuscript made in 1566 is a translation of the famous cosmography “Marvels of Creation”, originally written in Arabic by the thirteenth-century Persian lawyer, physician, astronomer and geographer Zakariya ibn Muhammad al-Qazwini (1203-1283). The miniatures illustrate the lunar cycle and the path of the Sun’s rays interrupted by the globe of the Earth at the time of a lunar eclipse. Born in the Persian town of Qazwin, Zakariya served as legal expert and judge in several localities in Persia, traveled in Mesopotamia and Syria, and finally entered the circle patronized by the governor of Baghdad. He also wrote a futuristic proto-science fiction tale entitled “Awaj bin Anfaq” about a man who traveled to Earth from a distant planet. 

Credits: Nick Anthony Fiorenza

The Sun spews forth an endless stream of charged particles in all directions. This solar wind blows far out into the solar system and beyond. The Earth's magnetic field shields from direct contact with the solar wind's charged particles. The Earth's magnetic field is rounded towards the Sun, and stretches out in a long tail away from the Sun. The solar wind rushes around and past the Earth and on out into space while the Moon passes through the different sections of the Earths magnetic sphere in its monthly orbit. At New Moon it is always in the upstream portion of the magnetosphere, facing the Sun and downstream in the Earth's tail at Full Moon. At First Quarter, the Moon is to the dusk side of Earth and at Fourth Quarter, the Moon is in the dawn side of the magnetosphere. The 10th and 25th days of the lunar cycle are significant periods because these points are more or less in line with the 45 degrees vector along which solar corpuscular radiation reaches the Earth. At a phase angle of some 315 degrees the Moon effectively blocks and cuts off most of solar radiation during its cycle, while at the opposite point around 135 degrees, the Moon reaches a point of least blockage. When the Moon is less than 3.5 degrees from the plane of the ecliptic, geomagnetic activity reaches a minimum during the Second Quarter and a maximum during Third Quarter.

SPX vs Lunar True Node's Speed + Eclipse Crash Windows

DJIA vs Lunar North Node in Zodiac Signs | Louise McWhirter

The mathematically calculated Lunar Nodes are sensitive points in space where the Moon’s orbit around the Earth intersects the ecliptic - the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. The Ascending Node is where the Moon crosses from south of the ecliptic to north of the ecliptic. The Descending Node is where it crosses from north of the ecliptic to south of the ecliptic. In Western astrology the Ascending and Descending Nodes are known as the "North Node" and the "South Node". 

 

Only the North Node is usually marked in horoscopes, as the South Node is by definition at the opposite point in the chart. In Vedic astrology, the North and South Nodes are called Rahu and Ketu respectively, and both are marked in the chart. Nodes always move retrograde and are considered natural malefics. 

 

Astrologically the Nodes are thought to powerfully influencing both the affairs of nations and of people. Eclipses occur only near the Lunar Nodes: Solar eclipses occur when the passage of the Moon through a Node coincides with the New Moon. Lunar Eclipses occur when passage coincides with the Full Moon. The plane of the lunar orbit precesses in space and hence the Lunar Nodes precess around the ecliptic, completing a revolution (called a Draconic or Nodal Period, the period of nutation) in 6798.383 days or 18.612 years. The Nodes need 1.55 years to pass through one zodiac sign.

 

In her book 'Astrology and Stock Market Forecasting' published almost 80 years ago, financial astrologer Louise McWhirter described a theory of the business cycle. She claimed the low point of the depression was reached in summer of 1933 (Lunar North Node in Aquarius) and predicted the next peak in economic activity would occur in November 1942 (NN in Leo). Her prediction for recovery in 1942 coincided with the massive economic stimulus spending set in motion by the build-up for World War II. Looking at 100 years of stock market prices she consistently found the North Node in the sign of Aquarius during periods of low economic activity. At the halfway point in the 18.6-year cycle, the North Node is moving into the sign of Leo, where economic high points have historically been recorded. After this, the long-term trend moves lower as the North Node slowly and systematically makes its way back to the sign of Aquarius, where the cycle begins anew (see also HERE).

Enlarge

 

Using McWhirter’s method, one would have expected the lowest economic period between January 2008 and August 2009 (NN in Aquarius), and then gradually improving from below normal levels to normal levels between August 2009 and August 2012 (NN in Capricorn, Sagittarius and Scorpio). The period between September 2012 and February 2014 was projected to be an above normal period for economic performance (unfortunately the red line of the averaged composite in the above chart doesn't clearly reflect this pattern). 

Though a considerable market correction between now and Q1 2016 is likely (HERE & HERE), a larger ensuing double-dip recession wouldn’t fit into the McWhirter-pattern (HERE). Instead the general upward trend should continue into the major peak-out between May 2017 and November 2018 (NN in Leo - HERE), followed by collapsing and declining markets into the 2020s (HERE).

Ranking of Countries by Sovereign Debt in Percent of GDP and Absolute Debt

Credits: countryeconomy.com

405 Year Sunspot Record Revised and Newly Calibrated

Credits: SILSO Data - Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels

Dating back to Galileo and the invention of the telescope, the 405-year solar sunspot record is the longest continuously monitored daily measurement in all of science. Studies into sunspots, solar and planetary cycles corresponding with trade cycles, crop prices and shifts in the markets have accelerated since the 19th century. Now, on July 1st, 2015 the official sunspot record underwent a complete overhaul for the first time since it was created by Swiss astronomer Rudolf Wolf in 1849. The newly calibrated record is likely to have implications in many diverse scientific disciplines including financial astrology.

Yet, this important change to one of science’s most fundamental measurements went literally unnoticed (HERE & HERE) Two sunspot record time series were recalibrated: The first is the traditional International Sunspot Number (ISN) record most people are familiar with. The second is the more physically meaningful group number. Groups have always been counted as part of the ISN. The newly released group number update redefines and corrects defects in the original 1998 version. The newly rebuilt group number time series shows that solar activity is considerably more ‘even’ over its 405-year history than previously thought. Formerly, it looked as though sunspot activity in the past was much weaker than at present, especially prior to 1890. Counting inconsistencies artificially created that non-existent effect. The rebuilt record contains four distinctive dips in solar activity that occur roughly every 100 years.

“Cosmic Causation in Geophysics” - W.D. Gann's Reading List

HERE

A reader of this blog recently provided the pdf-softcopy of one of the last three missing titles from W.D. Gann's Reading List: Paul Councel's “Cosmic Causation in Geophysics”. In this 28 page pamphlet of 1945 the author argues that the history of humankind and its future evolution could be plotted by astrological computation: There were “cultural epochs" about 2,160 years long, themselves divisible into recognizable events, and if humans wanted to control the evolution of the earth, and bring it back into cosmic harmony, they would need to follow Mr. Councel's fortean eschatology.

Unlike the title suggests, “Cosmic Causation in Geophysics” has nothing to do with geophysics nor with trading, and is certainly but another incoherent, eclectic and non-relevant trivia in W.D. Gann's long Reading List. Why Mr. Gann advised his students to waste time on such humbug? Didn't he know better?

SPX vs 20th Harmonic of Earth-Venus Cycle

The Art of Measuring Time

Prague Astronomical Clock (HERE)

For thousands of years, devices have been used to measure and keep track of time. The current sexagesimal system of time measurement dates to approximately 2000 BCE, in Sumer. 

Most of the first clocks were not so much chronometers as exhibitions of the pattern of the cosmos. Clearly the origins of the mechanical clock lie in a complex realm of monumental planetariums. 

The medieval Prague Astronomical Clock at left was installed in 1410 - more than 130 years before Copernicus published ‘On the Revolutions of the Celestial Spheres’ in 1543. It is the third-oldest astronomical clock in the world and the oldest one still working (HERE)

The Fractal Design of Time | Martin A. Armstrong

 

 

The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a computer model that analyzes the global economy by tracking capital flows and concentration, providing a macro long-term perspective of when shifts in confidence are possible that could lead to notable economic events as demonstrated over the course of history.

• The model consists of cycle waves that vary in length, from shorter to longer, and build up over time; for example, 8.6 to 51.6 to 309.6 years.
• It examines these cycle waves to discover when they are set to culminate, reflecting a possible shift in market confidence at that point in time.
• This shift in confidence is reflected by capital flows and concentration.
• The longer the cycle wave, the greater the magnitude of the shift in confidence.
• The dates in the model that reflect possible shifts are referred to as ECM turning points.

The ECM does not track or forecast individual financial instruments, securities, or markets.

SPX - Near Term Projections

Methodologies HERE & HERE.
Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.