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Sunday, July 2, 2023

The Civilization-State | Alexander Dugin

The special military operation (SMO) is unanimously agreed by competent experts in International Relations to be the final and decisive chord in the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world [...] The main actor of a multipolar world order is neither a nation-state (as in the realist theory of International Relations), nor a unified World Government (as in the liberalist theory of International Relations). It is the Civilization-State. Other names for it are 'Great Space', 'Empire', 'Ecumenism'.

» Your aim must be to take All-under-Heaven intact.
Thus your troops are not worn out and your gains will be complete.
This is the art of offensive strategy. «

Sun Tzu, The Art of War.

The term Civilization-State is most often applied to China. Both ancient and modern China. As early as ancient times, the Chinese developed the theory of 'Tianxia' (天下), the Celestial Empire, according to which China is the center of the world, being the meeting place of the unifying Heaven and the dividing Earth. And the Celestial Empire may be a single state, or it may be broken up into its components and then reassembled. In addition, Han China itself acts as a culture-forming element for neighboring nations that are not directly part of China - primarily Korea, Vietnam, the Indochina countries and even Japan, which is quite independent.

The nation-state is a product of the European New Age and, in some cases, a post-colonial construct. The Civilization-State has ancient roots and uncertain shifting boundaries. The Civilization-State sometimes pulsates, expanding and contracting, but always remaining a constant phenomenon. Contemporary China behaves strictly according to the principle of Tianxia in international politics. The One Belt, One Road Initiative is a prime example of how this looks like in practice. And China's Internet, which cuts off any networks and resources that might weaken the civilizational identity at the entrance to China, demonstrates how the defense mechanisms are built. The Civilization-State may interact with the outside world, but it never becomes dependent on it and always maintains self-sufficiency, autonomy and autarchy. Civilization-State is always more than just a state in both spatial and temporal (historical) terms. The Civilization-State may interact with the outside world, but it never becomes dependent on it and always maintains self-sufficiency, autonomy and autarchy.

Russia is increasingly gravitating toward the same status. After the beginning of the SMO this is no longer a mere wishful thinking, but an urgent necessity. As in the case of China, Russia has every reason to claim to be a civilization. This theory was most fully developed by the Russian Eurasians, who introduced the notion of a 'state-world' or — which is the same thing — a 'Russian world'. Actually, the concept of Russia-Eurasia is a direct indication of the civilizational status of Russia. Russia is more than a nation-state (which the Russian Federation is). Russia is a distinct world.

» The Civilization-State always maintains self-sufficiency, autonomy and autarchy. «

[…] A multipolar world consists of states-civilizations. This is a kind of world of worlds, a mega-cosmos that includes entire galaxies. And here it is important to determine how many such States-Civilizations can even theoretically exist? Undoubtedly, this type includes India, a typical Civilization-State, which even today has enough potential to become a full-fledged actor in international politics. Then there is the Islamic world, from Indonesia to Morocco. Here the fragmentation into states and different ethno-cultural enclaves does not yet allow us to speak of political unity. Islamic civilization exists, but the question of its assembly into a Civilization-State is rather problematic. Moreover, the history of Islam knows several types of Civilization-States — from the Caliphate (the First, Umayyad, Abbasid, etc.) to the three components of Genghis Khan's Empire converted to Islam (the Golden Horde, the Ilkhan and Chagatai ulus), the Persian Safavid Empire, the Great Mogul state, and finally, the Ottoman Empire. The borders once drawn are still relevant today in many respects. But the process of gathering them into a single structure requires considerable time and effort. The same situation is also true for Latin America and Africa, two macro-civilizations that remain rather divided. But a multipolar world will somehow push integration processes in all these zones.

[March 31, 2023]

Russia's New Foreign Policy Doctrine :
(1)   Free from ambiguity and understatement.
(2)   No more compromise.
(3)   Carthage must be destroyed.

Now the most important thing: what to do with the West? The Theory Of A Multipolar World in the nomenclature of theories of International Relations in the modern West is absent. Today the dominant paradigm is liberalism, which denies any sovereignty and autonomy at all, abolishes civilizations and religions, ethnicities and cultures, replacing them by a forced liberal ideology, the concept of 'human rights', individualism (in the limit leading to gender and transgender politics), materialism and technical progress elevated to the highest value (Artificial Intelligence). The goal of liberalism is to abolish nation-states and establish a World Government based on Western norms and rules. This is the line pursued by Biden and the modern Democrat Party in the U.S., as well as most European rulers. This is what globalism is all about. It categorically rejects the Civilization-State and any hint of multipolarity. That is why the West is ready for war with Russia and China. In a sense, this war is already going on in Ukraine and in the Pacific (the problem of Taiwan), but so far with the support of proxy-actors.

Ejaz Akram, Zhang Weiwei & Alexander Dugin:
» The Westphalian system of the sovereignty of nation-states has long since become obsolete and ceased to function.
In its place will be erected a continental system of ' large spaces' (in the Schmittian sense), where individuals
are integrated in the social whole based on the insoluble bond of kinship and common tradition. « (HERE)

In the West there is another influential school - realism in International Relations. Here the nation-state is considered a necessary element of the world order, but only those who have achieved a high level of economic, military-strategic and technological development — almost always at the expense of others — have sovereignty. While liberals see the future in a World Government, realists see it in an alliance of major Western powers setting global rules in their own interests. Again, in theory and practice, a Civilization-State and a multipolar world are categorically rejected. This creates a fundamental conflict already at the level of theory. And the lack of mutual understanding here leads to the most radical consequences at the level of direct collision.

In the eyes of multipolarity supporters, the West is also a Civilization-State or even two — North American and European. But Western intellectuals do not agree with this: they have no theoretical frame for this — they know either liberalism or realism, and no multipolarity. However, there are exceptions among Western theorists, such as Samuel Huntington or Fabio Petito. They — unlike the vast majority — recognize multipolarity and the emergence of new actors in the form of civilizations. This is gratifying because through such ideas it is possible to build a bridge from supporters of multipolarity (Russia, China, etc.) to the West. Such a bridge would at least make negotiations possible.

Want more war? Have it.
The Rest Against The West.
Russia's FM Lavrov [June 20, 2023] :
» Let NATO fight. Russia is prepared. «

As long as the West categorically rejects multipolarity and the very notion of the Civilization-State, the conversation will be conducted only at the level of a clash of rough power — from military operations to economic blockade, information and sanction wars, etc.

Quoted from:
Alexander Dugin (2022) - The Civilization-State.

Thursday, June 22, 2023

The 4 Year Presidential Cycle | Carol S. Mull

The 3 1/3 - Year Kitchin Cycle

Within the average 11.094-year sunspot cycle, there are shorter periods of solar prominence which occur every 40 or 42 months. These were first recognized in 1923 by the American economist Joseph Kitchin. They account for trade fluctuations and have a marked effect on terrestrial weather, alternating between hot and dry to cold and wet. Articles in Cycles magazine proclaim a 40.68-month cycle, an example of which follows:

The Mars/Vesta Cycle (4.17 years)

The planet Mars and the asteroid Vesta have a synodic cycle period of 4.17 years. (Mars often serves as a trigger planet to aspects of the heavier business planets (Saturn, Uranus, and Jupiter); Vesta has consistently been found in a prominent position in the natal horoscopes of stock traders.) The Dow is likely to peak at the first square (90-degree angle from the conjunction) between Mars and Vesta and to bottom at the second trine aspect (240-degree angle from the conjunction). Based on this, you should have bought May 28, 1985, and sold on December 7, 1987. (Ed. Note: October 19, 1987 was Black Monday. December would have been too late in this case.)

The 4 1/2-Year Martian Cycle

According to Lt.Comdr. David Williams, author of Financial Astrology (American Federation of Astrologers), the Mars/Jupiter 4 1/2-year cycle is one of the most dependable market indicators. Mars and Jupiter are in conjunction or opposition every 2.2353 years. Thus, every other conjunction is 4.4706 years, or approximately 234 weeks. Thomas Rieder, author of Astrological Warnings & the Stock Market (Pagurian Press), ties the 4 1/2-year cycle to the synodic period of Mars, The synodic period of a planet is the length of time elapsing between two successive conjunctions of that planet with the Sun as seen from Earth. Mars conjoins the Sun at intervals of about two years and three months, so this cycle is just twice the synodic period of Mars.

The 4-Year Presidential Cycle

The 3 1/3-, 4.17-, and 4 1/2-year cycles overlap and become what is sometimes referred to as the 4-year presidential cycle. It is theorized that the government stimulates the economy at election time to provide the illusion of prosperity and to insure the re-election of the President. However, closer analysis reveals that the cycle also exists in countries where elections are held every six or eight years or not at all.

Quoted from:
Carol S. Mull - Predicting the Dow.
In: Joan McEvers (Ed. 1989) - Financial Astrology for the 1990s.

Energy Flow Theory & Financial Markets | Al Larson

As planets orbit the sun, they exert tidal forces upon the gases of the sun. These tidal forces cause swirling motions on the sun, creating sun spots, solar flares, coronal holes, and other energy events. All these effects combine to vary the amount of radiation that leaves the sun. That solar radiation is our sole source of energy. We are subject to every fluctuation in it. Solar radiation travels to the earth in two ways: as direct radiation, such as sunshine and radio waves, and as charged particles carried by the solar wind. This flow of charged particles forms a torrent of energy that blasts earth creating a bow wave and a wake, just as a boat going upstream would do. This bow shockwave forms a magnetopause between the earth and the sun. It interacts with the earth’s electromagnetic field, shaping and adding energy to it. At the poles, charged particles follow the magnetic lines of force into our atmosphere. This creates a charged layer called the ionosphere.

As this solar wind passes earth, it shapes our magnetosphere into a teardrop shaped envelope of trapped charged particles. As solar radiation varies so does the earth’s magnetic field, atmospheric ionization, and temperature. Scientists have tracked down a host of relationships between these events and a variety of earthly phenomena such as weather, climate, crime rates, plant growth rates, frequency of thunder storms, blood Ph levels, psychiatric emergencies, and many others.

As part of this activity the solar wind charges our ionosphere to a voltage of approximately +300,000 volts. This charged layer above the earth represents the positive end of a battery. When you stand on the ground you are standing on the negative end of this battery. This is the earth’s electric field that we all live in. When you stand erect, it places a voltage on the top of your head of about 240 volts. That is the same voltage as used by your oven element. Fortunately for us, this is not a high current power source. Otherwise, we would fry.

We are affected by this field. This voltage causes currents to flow through us as we live on earth. These currents are approximately 2000 times as strong as the biological currents that run our brain, our nervous system, our muscles, and our organs. All of our body’s electro-chemical systems are subject to the fluctuations in these currents. The ionosphere and the charges on it form a very dynamic system. Events such as solar flares can cause rapid and large changes in this voltage. Our biological circuits feel these changes. These changes can affect all our biological processes including our emotional moods. Scientific studies have shown that changes in ionization cause people to feel giddy to gloomy. These moods show up in the markets. It is well accepted that markets move in response to fundamental forces and investor psychology. A major finding of my work is that investor psychology is driven by the physical energy system. Those emotional rallies and declines are controlled by the currents that run through us. We call those currents emotions.

[...] I have related the timing and price level of market turns to these currents. I have exhaustively verified every link in this chain of cause and effect. I have developed a solid mathematical knowledge of how this energy flow controls pattern, price, and time in markets. While it is not possible in a chaotic system to make perfect predictions, I have been able to formulate a computer program called XGO which predicts markets with between 60% and 90% accuracy […] This S&P forecast has been running about 80% accurate over the past two months. It was computed over one year ago, and used no price data! It is simply a computation of the energy coming into the S&P. These forecasts can be made for any market, for any time in the future. This is a unique scientific technology.

Quoted from:
Al Larson (1997) – Energy Flow Theory.

See also:

Hans Hannula ( 1987) - In Search of the Cause of Cycles.

Hans Hannula (1991) - A Lunar Chaos Theory.

Al Larson (1997) - Your Electric Life.

Al Larson (2001) - The Sun and the S&P 500.
Al Larson - www.moneytide.com

DrAlLarson - YouTube Channel.

TPR - Financial Markets and Solar Activity.

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

ICT Daily Range Profiles | Michael J. Huddleston

(I) The Classic Buy Day or Sell Day Template

This is the best template to make money since it is a wide range trending day that unfolds mostly on Monday, Tuesday and latest on Wednesday during the London session. The New York session will eventually give a retracement to continue with the trend that was set during the London session. The daily range will last for 7 to 8 hours once the profile is established.

▪ Always buy when the market drops at the right time of the day at key support level (buy below the opening price).
▪ On a buy day, if price starts by trading above the opening price, do not fall for that and wait for it to trade below the opening price.
▪ The faster the move to the support the good the trade, (it will look stupid and scary but buy when you see a fast move down to support).
▪ The distance from the open price to support will be 15 – 30 pips on average. If the move from open price to support in London session is more than 30 pips, wait for New York trade.
▪ If you can’t trade London session you can trade New York session to get in sync with London trade.
▪ Always take small profit of 20 – 30 pips at 12:00.

▪ The sell template will be vice versa of the buy template.

Mostly it will give a rally or drop from the daily opening price to the low or high of the day during the London session. The trend usually lasts into 11:00 EST.

(II) The London Swing to Z Day Template

This template is found in the middle of a larger price swing when the trend is exhausted after a large explosive move. It is a narrow range day and ideally occurs on Thursday.

▪ This will unfold in the middle of a Larger swing (strong move has minor to no retracement, most of the time price will consolidate after a strong or very big move and this template will unfold).

▪ If you had 2 – 3 days of big move, expect a pause in price.

Price will initially drop below the opening price, then run above the opening price and go back to the range into consolidation. It first appears to unfold as the Classic Buy or Sell Template. But if it continues consolidating, do not look for continuation into the New York session. Take profits.

(III) The London Swing to New York Open / London Close Reversal Template

The bullish version of this template always begins like a Classic Buy or Sell template with a decline below the opening price before price starts rallying. Once price drops, a buy entry forms, price rallies to a higher time frame Point of Interest (POI). If this happens during the New York session, it indicates a classic market reversal.

▪ The reversal market profile is one that typically forms as a Key Reversal Day.
▪ It will form a sell day during a bullish Asian, London and Possibly into New York session but fails to hold its rally and reverse lower.
▪ The swing up will likely be the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders top on higher time frame or swing up to the higher time frame OTE.
▪ This move will many times look just like classic London open buy day.

▪ Many times at 18:00 GMT or even later the market will eventually consolidate into the new trading day.
▪ The reversal market profile will form a buy day during bearish Asian, London and possibly into New York session but fails to hold its lower price slide and reverse higher.
▪ The swing down will likely be the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders bottom on higher time frame or swing down to the higher time frame OTE.
▪ This move will many times look just like classic London open sell day.

The template is used to either reach for a bearish order block on a higher time frame, for a turtle soup raid or to close a range. On a bullish day it will first create an initial low of the day during the London session, run up and create the high of the day during the New York session around the London Close, then run back down and clear the initial low that was created during the London session. Ideally it can pan out after the market is in exhaustion based on the higher time frame's dominant trend.

(IV) The Range to New York Open / London Close Rally Template

Generally this template is to be expected on days with high or medium impact news events like interest rate announcements, etc. Ahead of these events price will remain in consolidation during the Asian and London sessions. Lows will be cleared initially and after the news price explodes into a directional move.

▪ This pattern will unfold most often during the NFP, FOMC and Interest Rates Announcements.
▪ Before the News price will break London Lows and rally after News Release.
▪ Always remember to see cross pairs of the major pair you are trading when this template unfolds.
▪ If Dollar is dropping and EURUSD pair is consolidating EURJPY will be buying.
▪ If Dollar dropping, GBP is buying and EUR is consolidating, wait for GBP to hit resistance level and EUR will give nice range to New York Open/London Close rally setup.
▪ If majors are consolidating but crosses are moving, wait for the crosses to hit key Support/Resistance levels and come back to majors and trade to the direction of the crosses.

(V) The Consolidation Raid on News Release Template

Unfolding during the New York session on days with high impact news, mostly FOMC press releases. During and shortly after the news old highs and lows of prior consolidation levels will be taken out. Ideally buy when a low is taken out and sell when a prior high was breached.

▪ This pattern will unfold most often during the NFP, FOMC and Interest Rates Announcements.
▪ After opening price, market will consolidate before the News.
▪ During the News releases price will drop to induce traders and take stops (this move might not be that big below the consolidation but it has to break the consolidation).
▪ After clearing the stops and inducing, price will move into true direction.
▪ You have to identify Key support level or order block below the consolidation.
▪ See if price will reject at support/resistance within 5 minutes after News release, if it won’t reject then leave the trade because you might be wrong in your analysis.

News are used to Inject Volatility. One of the most difficult ways to trade is to try to trade the News Releases. The Internet is littered with so-called robots or programs designed to quickly give you trading profits on the knee-jerk reaction to the news. This is pure gambling. We can never know for sure what the numbers will be in the reports, we don’t guess. However, we can wait for the release and watch the reaction and many times a signal will form within 5 minutes after the news release. Many times price will trade counter direction to the intended news hawks.

(VI) The London Swing to Seek & Destroy Template

This is the kind of day that won’t make you money. The Market Makers clear intention is to take out both buyers and sellers. Initially it would give you a London Open opportunity and setup, but very likely that won’t come to fruition. The narrow range zig-zag template lasts throughout the New York session and will oftentimes create an inside day. The template is usually applied in the middle or at the end of a larger price swing.

▪ This template will unfold most often after a big move/swing or at the end of the price move (support/resistance).
▪ It is better to trade when a pair is in the middle of the range knowing it is going to support or resistance rather than trading a pair that is already in support/resistance because we don’t know if is going to hold the Support/Resistance or break it.

Reference:
Michael J. Huddleston (2015) - ICT Intraday Trading Templates.

See also:

Michael J. Huddleston (2017) - ICT Weekly Range Profiles & Intraweek Trading Templates.
TPR (2022) - The Daily & the Weekly Market Maker Cycles & ICT Intraday Trading Templates.

TPR (2022) - Daily Range = Accumulation + Manipulation + Expansion + Distribution (AMD).

TPR (2022) - Richard D. Wyckoff's Accumulation & Distribution Schematics.

L.H. Weston - Gann’s Professor | Hans Hannula

I've been told that Gann was very private about his office. He absolutely forbid anyone from entering it. He wanted to protect his secrets. But one document he kept in his safe. That document was a manuscript by Professor Weston of Washington, D. C. It was written in 1921 (part 1) and 1923 (part 2), four to six years before Gann published his Tunnel Thru the Air, Or Looking Back From 1940, Tunnel Thru the Air contains, in coded form, Gann’s explanation of how to use planetary cycles to trade stocks and commodities.

He told his own family that it was all they ever needed to learn his market secrets. Many Gann students have labored very long and hard (yes, me, too) to decode Gann's writing. Gann loved to write in the abstract style of the Biblical mystics, whom he admired. Much of what is written in the Bible is information about planetary cycles. It is hidden in census counts, symbolic imagery, and heavily coded to escape notice of the casual reader. While one can dig out this material, it takes time, an ephemeris, and a lot of work. Gann had it much easier. What you are about to read is the paper Gann kept in his safe.

Take your time and read it carefully. It’s one of the best papers ever written on the market.

After you read it, I'll point out some interesting things about it.

HERE

[...] First, this is clearly the foundation of Gann’s use of the 10 year cycle, and its multiples. Second, this is historically a fairly early use of Fourier sequences, and far more mathematical than just using financial astrology. This is no surprise, since it is well known that Gann was a very good mathematician. It is also a source of many of his ideas that market movements follow geometric rules.

[...] It is also quite interesting that Weston actually proposed two different versions of the ten year pattern. The first is his computation, using 50 years of data, of a series composed of 20 , 28, 10, and 14 month components, to which he adds a Venus term. In this system he cites use of heliocentric positions. We'll call this first method "Weston’s Curve’.

A most interesting point made in this method is Weston’s discovery that the planetary cycles tend to slip to synchronize with the earth’s annual cycle. I discovered this in my own work, and was sure it was an original discovery. So much for that vanity!

The second method I call “Weston’s Snowflake.” In it he proposes a sequence of turning points in the Jupiter-Saturn cycle that divides it into 10 irregular parts. Interestingly, Weston claims that this is a geocentric system. We'll show in a moment that it was not. But this “false lead” may have been intended for those whom Weston feared would learn his secret. Gann obviously made good use of Weston’s methods.

[... Weston used] the 0, 18, 54, 90, 126, and 180 degree points of the Jupiter-Saturn cycle as turns. One can quickly see the problem with using this geocentrically. Almost all of the points are triple points, as the earth moves around the sun, giving multiple views from which to measure the angle between Jupiter and Saturn. The problem becomes one of which points to use.

[...] It took only one look at using this rule heliocentrically to convince me that Weston used it that way. Obviously, W. D. Gann watched these outer configurations to be alert for the deviations they might cause in the Jupiter-Saturn cycle. You are advised to do the same.

Quoted from:
Hans Hannula (1993) - Gann's Greatest Secret.

See also:
L.H. Weston (1921 & 1923) - Being a Treatise on the Geometrical or Chart System of Forecasting in which is explained the principles of the art, and, in this lesson no. 1, giving demonstration with the price curve of potatoes in U.S.

Friday, June 16, 2023

Financial Markets & Seasonal Geomagnetic Field Variation | Hans Hannula

Any grade-school pupil can tell you when the seasons begin. In the northern hemisphere, generally, spring begins March 21, while summer begins June 21. Autumn begins September 23, and winter begins December 21. Actual dates may vary by one day in a particular year. So step one is simple.

The physical reason behind the seasonal cycle is the tilt of the Earth's axis. The 23.5-degree tilt of the Earth's axis causes more direct heating of the northern hemisphere in the summer, when the Earth tilts toward the sun. It causes less heating in the winter, when the Earth tilts away from the sun. This change in heating and cooling causes the seasonal weather patterns that we are familiar with.

Charged particles from the sun form a teardrop-shaped envelope about the globe called the magnetosphere.

Not so well known is the effect of the seasonal variation on the Earth's geomagnetic field. As the sun emits energy, charged particles flow outward, carried by the solar wind. As these particles sweep past Earth, they form a teardrop-shaped envelope around the globe called the magnetosphere.

There is a seasonal variation in two important parts of the magnetosphere. When the Earth tilts toward the sun in the summer, the charged particles can more directly flow into the north pole, where they affect the Earth's magnetic field. This effect is lessened when the Earth tilts away from the sun in the winter.

The second magnetic effect is on the magneto-tail, that part of the magnetosphere which streams away from the sunny side of the Earth. As the Earth tilts toward the sun, this tail "rides higher." As the Earth tilts away from the sun, the tail "rides lower." This affects how our moon, which moves in and out of the magnetosphere, interacts with the Earth's magnetic field.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology (2023):
The Seasonal Distribution of Geomagnetic Disturbances.

So what does this have to do with stocks and commodities? Scientific evidence suggests that these fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field affect humans. Studies show that magnetic field changes are linked to blood PH changes, which in turn cause mood swings. Perhaps the psychological mood swings of traders are also subject to these magnetic field changes.

More obviously, the seasonal cycle could be expected to affect crop prices, such as those of wheat, corn and other commodities. Similarly, with most businesses running on a quarterly profit cycle, seasonal variations in the buying and selling of materials and equipment can be expected. Thus, on both a fundamental and technical basis, a trader can expect season price variations in stocks and commodities.

To perform step 2, mark the dates of the cycle on a chart with solid dots, and place them above or below the price as you estimate that price is high or low relative to what it was approximately one-fourth cycle earlier. Points do not necessarily have to alternate between high and low.

Now look for cycle "inversions." If two lows or highs occur in succession, the cycle has "inverted" between the points. A normal inversion point is halfway through the cycle.

Quoted from:
Hans Hannula (1991) - The Seasonal Cycle. In: Stocks & Commodities V. 9:11 (458-460).

Chinese 24 Solar Terms for 2023.

CNN Business - Fear & Greed Index as of June 16, 2023.

Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern of U.S. Stock Indexes | Jeffrey A. Hirsch

In 2023 the 15th trading day of June will be Wednesday, 21st - summer solstice.

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch @ Twitter.

Sunday, May 28, 2023

Trading the Pump & Dump Pattern | Cameron Benson

I'm going to show you that pattern that I use every single day on every single trade, whether I'm going long or short. The pattern that I'm referring to is the pump & dump and the dump & pump pattern. Every single market movement is either a pump & dump or a dump & pump pattern, and all trade setups are based on these two patterns.

Markets are fractal, and this pattern is going to occur on the weekly and the daily time frame, on the 4 hour, the 15-minute, the 30 second chart, etc. It doesn't matter: whatever you're looking at, this pattern is going to occur.

I use larger setups and then I start to break things down: I look at the date and day in the month, I look at the three-week cycle, at the three-day cycle, at what day are we in the week, and I look at the weekly range, what is the high and the low of the week. Are we working the low, are we working the high?

Any unidirectional move – up or down - ends with a consolidation, followed by a break in market structure and a continuation to anther pivot level and/or it is followed by a reversal.

Three pushes to a high, a sideways consolidation, a break in market structure to the downside, then the dump. A lot of times the market will return down at least to the 50% retracement level or down to the level where the pump started or even below.

Reference:
Cameron Benson (May 27, 2023) - 15 Minute Talk That Will Change How You View The Market [Pump And Dump].
Cameron Benson (May 27, 2023) - Pump And Dump & Dump And Pump [Pdf-Slideshow of the above video].

Sunday, May 21, 2023

The ‘Khaldun Curve’ | Nima Sanandaji

Ideas change the world. A good example of this is how the global view of taxation quietly began shifting one afternoon in 1974. That afternoon, the American economist Arthur Laffer met with Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, who both were working for the Nixon-Ford Administration at the time. The topic at hand was taxes, a pressing matter at a time when the highest marginal tax rate in the US was fully 70 per cent.

During the meeting, Laffer explained that the relationship between the tax revenues and the tax rate was not as simple as one would expect. Doubling the tax rate, for example, does not double the tax revenues, because higher taxes disincentives people from working. To illustrate his point, Laffer famously sketched a curve on a napkin. It showed that both a tax rate at zero per cent and one at hundred per cent would yield no tax revenues.

A tax rate of zero per cent would logically mean zero revenues, and one at 100 per cent would disincentives people completely from working, which also means zero revenues. The implication, Laffer noted, is that somewhere between zero and hundred per cent, there is a tipping point. Above this point, raising the tax rates would actually lead to such a damaging effect on economic incentives, that the collected taxes would actually be lower after the tax rate was raised.

Ibn Khaldun (1377) - Taxation and the reason for low and high tax revenues.

[...] The funny thing is that Arthur Laffer’s theory was far from new. He was rediscovering a concept that had been acknowledged during the Islamic Golden Age period of free market policy. Laffer has himself explained that he didn’t invent the curve, but took it from Ibn Khaldun, a 14th-century Muslim, North African philosopher. Indeed, many of the ideas we today associate with Western free-market thinkers originated in the Islamic world.

Quoted from:
Nima Sanandaji (2018) - Why the Laffer Curve should really be called the ‘Khaldun Curve’.

See also:
Ibn Khaldun (1377) - The Muqaddimah. An Introduction to History.
Amilcare Puviani (1903) - Theory of Financial Illusion.

Stephen Moore & Arthur B. Laffer (2018) - Trumponomics. Inside the America First Plan to Revive Our Economy.

Robert Irwin (2018) - Ibn Khaldun: An Intellectual Biography.

Sunday, April 30, 2023

Unshakable Fearlessness | Daisetsu Teitaro Suzuki

Unshakable fearlessness as such already amounts to mastery, which, in the nature of things, is realized only by the few.

As proof of this I shall quote a passage from the Hagakure, which dates from about the middle of the seventeenth century:

Yagyü Tajima-no-kami was a great swordsman and teacher in the art to the Shogun of the time, Tokugawa lyemitsu. One of the personal guards of the Shogun one day came to Tajima-no-kami wishing to be trained in fencing. The master said, “As I observe, you seem to be a master of fencing yourself; pray tell me to what school you belong, before we enter into the relationship of teacher and pupil.” The guardsman said, “I am ashamed to confess that I have never learned the art.”

“Are you going to fool me? I am teacher to the honorable Shogun himself, and I know my judging eye never fails.” “I am sorry to defy your honor, but I really know nothing.” This resolute denial on the part of the visitor made the sword master think for a while, and he finally said, “If you say so, it must be so; but still I am sure you are a master of something, though I do not know of what.”

“If you insist, I will tell you. There is one thing of which I can say I am complete master. When I was still a boy, the thought came upon me that as a Samurai I ought in no circumstances to be afraid of death, and I have grappled with the problem of death now for some years, and finally the problem of death ceased to worry me. May this be at what you hint?”

“Exactly!” exclaimed Tajima-no-kami. “That is what I mean. I am glad that I made no mistake in my judgment. For the ultimate secrets of swordsmanship also lie in being released from the thought of death. I have trained ever so many hundreds of my pupils along this line, but so far none of them really deserve the final certificate for swordsmanship. You need no technical training, you are already a master.”

Quoted from:

Daisetsu Teitaro Suzuki (1938) - Zen Buddhism and Its Influence on Japanese Culture.

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