S&P 500 Index vs Average Annual Cycle | Turning Points 2019

The above chart shows the Average Annual Cycle based on S&P 500 Index close values from 1950 to 2018.
Upcoming important turning points in this cycle during 2019 are:
Jan 07 (Mon) High
Jan 14 (Mon) Low
Jan 25 (Fri) High
Feb 09 (Sat) Low
Mar 12 (Tue) High
Mar 29 (Thu) Low
Jun 08 (Sat) High
Jul 01 (Mon) Low
Aug 29 (Thu) High
Oct 28 (Mon) Low
Nov 08 (Fri) High
Dec 23 (Mon) Low

W.D. Gann's Mass Pressure Chart for 2019 | Review 2018

The concept of W.D. Gann's Mass Pressure Chart for stock indices HERE
Mass Pressure Charts vs US-stocks during previous years HERE

Mass Pressure Chart for US-stocks | 1st Quarter 2019

W.D. Gann's Mass Pressure Chart for 2018 vs S&P 500 Index | Review

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Nodal Cycle | Aug 27, 2018 = Jan 14, 2000

Jan 14, 2000 (Fri = Major High in DJIA) + 6,800 CD = Aug 27, 2018 (Mon)

A high should print around Aug 30 (Thu) ± 1 CD. Aug 30 will be also
195 Solar Degrees of geocentric longitude from the Major Low on Feb 09 (Fri)
and 1,440 Lunar Degrees from the Low on May 03 (Thu).

Astro Cycles and Speculative Markets | Luther James Jensen (1935 + 1978)

Luther James Jensen was born in 1900 and raised in Saint Paul, Minnesota, where he graduated in 1922. He entered the financial sector in New York, and worked for George E. Liggett and Associates until around 1930. Jensen then moved to Kansas, where he opened the Kansas City Bureau of Economic Research in 1931 which was his business for over 25 years. For the Roosevelt-administration he authored economic forecasts (e.g. Major Trends in American Economics from 1492 to 1950: An Analysis and a Forecast), but also wrote on war and peace cycles, radio communication technology or migratory locusts (The Locust Years After 1940). During the same period one of his major private clients became W.D. Gann. Though apparently Jensen himself was never an active trader, already in 1935 he published a booklet called Astro-economic Interpretation: A Mundane Astrology Notebook; Fundamentals of Economic Forecasting which primarily relied upon transiting aspects and horoscopes of companies. Today this very dense book is considered one of the bona fide classics and finest "How-To" guidelines on financial astrology ever written. Throughout the 1940s Jensen wrote the astro-financial column Market Perspective, which was published in the American Astrology magazine.

Soon after W.D. Gann died in 1955, Jensen closed down his Kansas City Bureau of Economic Research to work for B.C. Christopher and Co. in New York from 1957 until his retirement in 1971. Then, in 1978 at the age of 77, Jensen summarized his life's work in a new, updated and expanded edition of Astro Cycles and Speculative Markets. Over 50 years of study, research, and actual application of his concepts in the stock and commodity markets have proven Jensen to be one of the great astro-economic analysts of all time. Jensen took an approach that used standard aspect qualities (trines favourable, squares negative, etc.) and standard planet qualities such as Jupiter increasing prices, Saturn depressing prices. One of the problems with much of this early work is that it gives astrological indicators but provides little verification. In 1981 L.J. Jensen passed away in Shawnee, Kansas. Hard- and e-copies of his Astro Cycles and Speculative Markets are still available today, and his methods applied by some of the most successful private traders and large companies around the globe. The following is Jensen's introduction to financial astrology:

S&P 500 Index vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

The Delta Inversion Time Window opened with the Full Moon on March 01st (Thu), and currently suggests the following: The Intermediate Term Delta rotation inverted (compared to 4 lunar months earlier - details HERE) with the #1 Low on Friday, March 2nd, and a #2 High on Tuesday, March 13th. Then a #3 Low between Wednesday, March 28 and Monday, April 2 are likely (see also HERE). After a brief recovery (#4 High) another low in mid-April should be followed by new all-time-highs into May-June. If this inversion isn't done yet, we would only see some brief sideways-to-down movement into Tuesday, March 13th, followed by a further advance into the end of the month or early April, and another brief correction before new higher highs. Time will tell.

S&P 500 and DJI just forming congestion triangles while NDX keeps surging to new all-time-highs (HERE)? Next week is populated with contradicting solunar events and stock markets may simply chop side-ways-to-down into the New Moon (HERE)

DJIA vs New and Full Moon & Moon in 15° Sagittarius and 15° Gemini

Upcoming dates are:
2018 Feb 23 (Fri) 20:47 = MOO @ 15 GEM
2018 Mar 01 (Thu) 19:55 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 Mar 08 (Thu) 22:42 = MOO @ 15 SAG
2018 Mar 17 (Sat) 09:10 = SUN 000 MOO
2018 Mar 23 (Fri) 03:15 = MOO @ 15 GEM
2018 Mar 31 (Sat) 08:39 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 Apr 05 (Thu) 08:09 = MOO @ 15 SAG
2018 Apr 15 (Sun) 21:54 = SUN 000 MOO
2018 Apr 19 (Thu) 09:15 = MOO @ 15 GEM
2018 Apr 29 (Sun) 21:02 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 May 02 (Wed) 16:25 = MOO @ 15 SAG
2018 May 15 (Tue) 07:46 = SUN 000 MOO
2018 May 16 (Wed) 17:18 = MOO @ 15 GEM
2018 May 29 (Tue) 10:21 = SUN 180 MOO
2018 May 29 (Tue) 23:44 = MOO @ 15 SAG
2018 Jun 13 (Wed) 03:14 = MOO @ 15 GEM
2018 Jun 13 (Wed) 15:43 = SUN 000 MOO

DJIA vs Crude Oil Set Forward 10 Years | Major High around June 2018

Tom McClellan's approach projects a major high in US-stocks into around June 2018, and a major low into January 2019 (see also HERE + HERE).

W.D. Gann's Mass Pressure Chart for the DJIA 2018

W.D. Gann's Mass Pressure Chart is a selective or incomplete Decennial Pattern: Each value of this composite is derived from 6 past price values of the DJIA exactly 80, 60, 40, 30, 20, and 10 years back. Therefore the Mass Pressure Chart and the Decennial Pattern oftentimes look very much the same, and even have identical turning-points. See also HERE

90% Bullish Larry Williams Trading Setup for S&P500 Futures

One of Larry Williams' Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading is about an Outside Day with a down close [Day 1] followed by an Inside Day [Day 2]. This is a very reliable bullish short term trading setup: Bought the next day at the open [Day 3], this setup is profitable in the S&P500 90% of the time. Expect the ES/Emini to rise above Day 1 (HERE).

Russell 2000 Index vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

Next week the solunar bias for stocks remains positive. However, in the Russell 2000 Index the net outcome could be almost neutral, since the continuation of the 4 Lunar Month Cycle would suggest the following choppy market action: Oct 23 (Mon) dip-down, close near opening; Oct 24 (Tue) from morning high above Monday close, down for the rest of the day - possibly to low of the week; Oct 25 (Wed) up; Oct 26 (Thu) from morning high of the week, sideways-to-down to low above Tuesday; Oct 27 (Fri) sideways. Heavy Cosmic Clusters will be modulating the geomagnetic field during this current weekend, and preparing for a mixed mood setup next week (Oct 21 = MER par NEP, MER 150 URA, NEP 045 EAR, SAT 120 EAR - all heliocentric; Oct 22 = SUN into SCO, MAR into LIB, and MER cp JUP, MER cp SAT, VEN 000 MAR, VEN 180 NEP - heliocentric). On Oct 26 (Thu), Jupiter will conjunct the Sun, and from a heliocentric perspective the Earth will be opposing Jupiter, and Venus trining Pluto. US-stock indices are in the latter stage of the first and very bullish 10 Week Cycle within the 40 Week Cycle that started with the Solar Eclipse from the August 21 major low. This cycle may peak as late as Oct 30 (Mon), and is expected to bottom in early November. Afterwards the main indices should rise to new highs.

DJIA Forecast 2017 vs Actual & Outlook into 2027 | Thomas Bulkowski

On January 1, 2017 Thomas Bulkowski presented a forecast for the DJIA in 2017 (middle chart). Comparing this forecast with the actual DJIA (top chart), he now remarks on October 14: "Notice that peak A comes well before B, and it's higher than B, too. Bad timing. The index dipped and has recovered up to C, nearly matching the prediction. Here's where the ride gets scary. Notice how the market drops, and fast, too, after C. That's about a 1,500 point drop in a month. Ouch. This forecast isn't guessing. It's based on what has happened in prior years. Click the above link for more details. However, just because it's a mechanical forecast doesn't make it right. So we'll just have to see what happens in the next four weeks."

Also on January 1, 2017 he published a forecast for the DJIA covering a decade of price movement into 2027 (lower chart): "The vertical magenta lines show important turns. Price is fine during most of 2017 until the Dow peaks in October. Then the big decline starts in what looks to be a bear market lasting to 2019. Then we get a nice run up which continues until at least 2027."

Value Line Geometric Composite Index | Breaking Above 1998 High

While everybody and his brother are expecting the Everything-Bubble to pop soon,
some are touting the stock markets would plunge into an epic abyss.
Martin Armstrong explains again why this time it really is different (HERE)

No doubt, greed is historically excessive in the US-stock market these days (HERE), and a correction is due. At the same time there is a quite different technical perspective to it: It took the Value Line Geometric Composite Index (though not inflation adjusted, but equally weighted, using a geometric average) three attempts and 19 years to finally break significantly above the 1998 high. However, also since 1998, countless Perma-Bears among the Elliott-Wavers are still constantly expecting THE epic stock market crash to be lurking around every corner. They expect the completely distorted major US-stock indices to dive to and below their 1987 crash-lows (the wave 4 of lesser degree-target in Elliott Wave-lingo), and this event to usher in the end of civilization and the ascension of a new dark age. Well, the Value Line Index indeed had crashed below its 1987 low in 2009 already, and keeps rising ever since. The highs of 1998, 2007, 2015 and 2017 are now providing very strong support.

Dow Jones Industrial Average to Gold Price Ratio (in USD) │ Jan 1915 - Oct 2017
Source: macrotrends

US Equity Market P/E Ratio vs Long‐Term Historical Average
Source: PCA

George Marechal's Stock Market Forecast 1933 to 1948 │ Law of the Market

In 1933 the incoming U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt reached out to Roger Ward Babson for a long range forecast for the stock markets. Babson, a very successful entrepreneur, economist, business theorist, investor, and philantroph with a huge fortune, was a household name since he had predicted, back on September 5th 1929, that "a crash is coming, and it may be terrific". Later that very same day the stock market on Wall Street declined by 3% and this became known as the "Babson Break". The big crash with most catastrophic losses followed on October 24 and 29, 1929 (Black Thursday and Black Tuesday). When the U.S. finally reached the height of the Great Depression in 1932 and the stock market was at an all-time low, 75% of its value was wiped out, and shares in any company were virtually worthless. Thousands of people were ruined, and soup kitchens sprang up on street corners as people lost their jobs, savings and homes. 

To comply with President Roosevelt’s demand, Babson in turn consulted the largely unknown Canadian mathematician George Marechal, who recently had managed to work out how the highs and lows of the Dow Jones Industrial Index repeated themselves in predetermined sequences. So finally it was Marechal who produced a Dow Jones Index Forecast Chart over the next 15 years for the Roosevelt administration, that proved to be spectacularly accurate. So confident was Marechal in his prediction at the time that he had his chart copyrighted. His friend Alan H. Andrews (the inventor of Andrews’ Pitchfork) described it as a "chart no government economist, no college professor has enough knowledge to even approach or courage to try to duplicate." 

Comparison of Marechal's 1933 forecast with actual data of the Dow Jones Index from 1934 through April 1951
[published by Garfield A. Drew and Edward R. Dewey in Cycles Magazine, October 1962].

Edward R. Dewey confirmed in 1962 that still little to nothing was known of Marechal's method, though a fund manager had offered him $20,000 for his secrets, or, alternatively, to operate a five million dollar fund on the basis of these secrets and to share profits. But Marechal did not accept either offer, and finally died at the age of 90 without ever revealing how he was able to calculate market movements with such uncanny accuracy. However, what is clear is that he was using a version of Babson's Normal Line. The annotations to his chart later added by his friend Alan Andrews show that Marechal plotted turns with what are now known as Median Lines. Dewey concluded:

"The important thing about this study [chart of Marechal] is not the exact precision by which it came true, or the amount of money you would or would not have made if you had followed it. The important thing is that it shows that the market has predictable patterns. In other words, that the seeming disorder of market fluctuations really is subject to law, and that this law is learnable."

In 1948 Garfield A. Drew, another friend of Marechal, reproduced the forecast in his book "New Methods For Profit in the Stock Market". Drew stated that one of the original copies of the forecast had been in his possession since 1935, and as each year was divided into six parts he added in his book the actual fluctuations of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages by plotting the high and low for each two-month period. Drew commented on the famous chart:

"Clearly, the pattern of the forecast and the actual pattern of the market miss many times in detail and exact timing. Nevertheless, the broad picture of the trends from 1934 through 1947, at least, is remarkably similar. The basic downtrend from 1936-37 to 1942 is plain, and likewise the uptrend from 1942 to 1946, although the latter shows up as a much more zigzag pattern in the forecast than was actually the case. Thus, the year 1944 by itself, for example, appears as a down period, whereas it was really an up year. When the year 1947 ended, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had spent 16 months within a 16% price range. As far as the situation at the time the comparison in [the figure] ends is concerned, it is evident that, if the broad accuracy of the preceding 14 years is to be maintained, 1948 must, on the whole, witness a rising price level. A definite down trend going substantially into new low territory by the year-end would produce a greater discrepancy between the forecast pattern and the actual course of prices than at any other time in the record. The fact remains to be seen at this writing, but, in line with his original forecast made years before, Marechal always insisted that 1946-47 was not a "bear market" but an interruption in a long upward trend comparable to the break and market hesitancy during 1926 in the long upswing from 1921 to 1929.”

"In this figure the Dow Jones Averages are plotted from 1897 through 1962. On this chart are a number
of "resistance" lines. The original worksheets for Marechal's forecast look just about like this chart,
except that there were a great many more lines and, thus, a great many more intersecting points.
Marechal's secrets consist fundamentally of how to draw the resistance lines and how to select the
significant intersections" [Edward R. Dewey in Cycles Magazine, October 1962].

DJIA Daily Pattern during Years Ending in "7" │ 1887-2017

Source: The Leuthold Group

Presidential-, Seasonal-, Decennial- and Composite Cycle | Q3 + Q4 2017

The Dow's Dirty Dozen | Nautilus Research

The Dow Jones Industrial average hits 12 days of consecutive all-time highs.
Just one more day to go to a 100 year record: 1929, 1987, 2017.
Source: Nautilus Research @NautilusCap (Feb 28, 2017)

The Best Seasonal Time of the Year | Feb 15 - May 10

Feb 15 - May 10 (Source: Nautilus Research)

First Quarter 2017 | Presidential Cycle + Seasonal Pattern + Decennial Cycle of the DJIA (HERE)

Solar and Economic Relationships | García Mata & Shaffner

Carlos Garcia-Mata & Felix Ira Shaffner (1934) - It is common knowledge that people from all walks of life and every station of society participated in what is now generally agreed was - considering the number of persons and transactions involved - the greatest speculative mania of modern times. The bursting of this speculative bubble at the end of 1929 affords an excellent opportunity for something analogous to an experiment on the correlation of turning points in solar and speculative activity. Stock prices had experienced an extraordinary rise from a level of around 100 in 1924 to approximately 320 in the first half of 1929.

[…] With this in mind, we compared monthly data of speculation in 1929 with variations in solar phenomena for the same year […] In the upper part of the chart the solar-radiation curve is plotted upside down to help visualize the inverse correlation. Another comparison between business and solar data was made employing an index computed since August, 1924, by the Mount Wilson Observatory. This is an index of a part of the solar spectrum, the ultraviolet rays, which, it will be remembered, vary within a much wider range than the total solar radiation curve. This index was reduced to a 12-month moving average to make it comparable with the rest of the chart. Although the period is so short that nothing statistical can be deduced, the existence of a direct correlation with the business curve is apparent […] For an index of American speculative sentiment, we chose Professor W.L. Crum's index of industrial stock prices, known as “Barron's Averages, because they are constructed to portray the speculative movement of stock prices rather than the trend of investment prices.” 

[...] A glance at the chart will show a striking similarity in the date of the turning points. Furthermore, contrary to expectations, the behavior of the two curves during the whole year is similar. The lowest prices for common stocks in the New York and London Stock Exchanges were reached in the first half of July 1932 [...] The [third] chart shows the curious fact that the recession in the last quarter of 1932 is also visible in the solar curve. And it is interesting to note that the solar curve makes a second low in February, 1933, turning up again in the following months. Although this is a fact, too much should not be expected of comparisons for the year 1933 because, except for clear solar changes which are sudden and which can be associated with the turning points, it is too much to hope for an exact month-to-month correlation. In the years in which the speculative curves moved steadily up or down, such as in 1930-31 and previous to 1929, no clear moth-to-month relation has been found between solar and speculative short swings, except for the seasonal movements of the speculative curve in the down swing, which perhaps can be associated with the similar seasonal variations of the solar-terrestrial physical curves such as magnetic activity and aurora borealis.

DJIA Performance during Presidential Terms | 1900-2017

Bespoke (Jan 19, 2017) - Through Thursday, the DJIA is up over 148% (not including dividends) since the close on [Obama's] Inauguration Day 2009, and that ranks as the fourth best return for the DJIA under any President since 1900. Calvin Coolidge presided over a gain of 251.7% during his time in office [...] followed by Clinton (227%), and FDR (197%) [...] Hoover presided over a decline of over 80% [...] the second George Bush saw the DJIA fall 22%.

DJIA 2017 | Presidential Cycle + Seasonal Pattern + Decennial Cycle

Seasonal Cycle (1900-2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.99%

1st Year of the Presidential Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +5.48%

7th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +4.82%

"The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more

or less active for each year, as the Sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the

same date every year. So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern."

Jack Gillen (1979): The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange.