2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices | Jeff Hirsch

Within the four-year presidential cycle, the midterm year represents the weakest phase for equities. It is characterized by low single-digit average returns and the cycle's deepest intra-year pullbacks. However, it also sets the stage for the most reliable and profitable recovery rallies, which typically extend well into the following year. Historical data on years ending in "6," dating back to 1806, show that 85% closed higher, with only four instances of declines. Hurst cycles project 9-month troughs for January and October 2026 (as illustrated in the charts at the end of this article).  

 

 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern.

 

The first chart above shows the average seasonal performance of the DJIA (blue), S&P 500 (black), NASDAQ (green), and Russell 2000 (grey) from 1949 to 2024. All follow a consistent trajectory: a period of weakness from January through September, with average cumulative declines of 2–8%, followed by a fourth-quarter recovery that pushes annual returns toward positive territory.

6th Years of President Term Seasonal Pattern (1949-2024).

 

6th Year of 10-year Cycle Seasonal Pattern (1949-2024). 

 2026 Scenarios.

The next chart focuses on the S&P 500, comparing the broader midterm average (blue) against the sixth year of a presidency (red), second-term Republican midterms (green), and Jeffrey A. Hirsch's Stock Trader’s Almanac aggregate cycle (black). Across all categories, early-year gains eventually yield to mid-year volatility, and a strong rally consistently emerges from October onward.

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

 

The second-term Republican midterm cycle (green) begins with a minor January dip, followed by a steady ascent that peaks at roughly 6-8% by April-June. After third-quarter volatility—where gains typically compress to a 1% floor in September—the market enters a year-end rally exceeding 8% by December.
 

 Performance of the S&P 500 during the Presidential Cycle: 
Midterm Years see both the largest pullbacks, and the best recovery rallies.

 S&P 500 Peak-to-Trough Declines in Midterm Election Years, 1950-2022.

The table above outlines every S&P 500 peak-to-trough decline during midterm election years between 1950 and 2022. These declines averaged 17.3% over 115 calendar days, typically beginning in late April and finding a floor by mid-August. However, all of these declines consistently acted as springboards, fueling recovery rallies that averaged 31.7% gains one year later.

 

 Edgar Lawrence Smith (1939) - Tides in the Affairs of Men: 

An Approach to the Appraisal of Economic Change.

  

2026 in the Four-Year Presidential Cycle aligned with the Decennial Cycle. 

 

 J.M. Hurst's 18-Month Cyclic Model: Component cycles

and the aggregated Composite Cycle (thick black line).

 

 

While the ideal period for Hurst’s nominal 40-week cycle (also known as the 9-month cycle) is 272 days (38.86 weeks), current data from TimeSeriesSCC and Sentient Trader indicate a shorter realized average in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Over the last ten iterations, the measured 40-week cycle has averaged 257 to 262 days (36.7 to 37.4 weeks).

Projecting this duration forward from the major troughs of April 7 and April 21, 2025, the next 40-week cycle trough was initially expected to occur in a window between December 20, 2025, and January 8, 2026. However, considering the recent 80-, 40-, and 20-day troughs—including those from the DJI, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, and BTCUSD—shifts the projected window toward mid-late-January.

 

 

 Blancmange Curve.

 

 

See also: 
Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast & Outlook: 6th Year of Presidency. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.

The Vedic Astrology of Silver in 2026: New Price Reality | Rowan Hogg

As of December 22, 2025, Silver traded around $69 per ounce, marking a substantial surge from approximately $30 at the start of 2025—validating earlier predictions of a breakout beginning in September 2025. Silver is forecasted to experience significant upward momentum throughout 2026, entering a "new reality" of higher valuations. Despite intermittent corrections, I anticipate Silver ending the year 2026 substantially higher, supported by ongoing industrial demand and safe-haven flows. 

 

 » To analyze Silver astrologically, we use a chart dated June 15, 1931, at 9:30 a.m. in Manhattan, New York. This marks the

first trade of Silver futures contracts in the United States on the National Metal Exchange, a precursor to the modern COMEX. 

Although Silver has been traded for centuries, this date represents the formalization of modern Silver futures trading. «

This prediction combines tropical Western astrology with Vedic sidereal techniques, using a foundational chart for Silver futures dated June 15, 1931, at 9:30 a.m. in Manhattan, New York. Key signatures include Jupiter's interactions with natal Pluto and Jupiter (wealth expansion), Uranus influencing natal Venus (technological and revolutionary boosts), and lunar/Cancer emphases (silver's traditional rulership by the Moon).

 
Monthly Key Transits and Expectations for 2026:

■ January: Upward momentum; Jupiter stations direct over natal Pluto (wealth expansion); Sun trines natal Venus.
■ February: Rise continues; Venus in eighth house aids investments; Mercury retrograde may expose manipulations.
■ March: Bullish with FOMO. Venus conjuncts North Node and Uranus, echoing prior surges.
■ April: Mainstream visibility increases. Venus transits the tenth house; potent conjunctions over natal Venus.
■ May: Multi-year potential boost. Venus over natal Moon; Uranus compresses natal Venus; Jupiter hits natal Pluto again.
■ June: Correction; Uranus squares natal Mars/Neptune (volatility, confusion); potential macro signals.
■ July: Rise amid banking stress; Sun over natal Pluto/Jupiter; possible Eastern market shift.
■ August: Slight gain despite health scare risks. Jupiter conjunct ascendant.
■ September: High volatility, possibly downward. Chiron and Ketu influences suggest overexpansion concerns.
■ October: Volatility in mining sector. Debilitated Sun and Saturn dampen speculation.
■ November: Renewed boom. Ketu with Jupiter; potential emergency monetary policies propel prices.
■ December: Volatile but overall higher close. Uranus stresses continue, yet speculative energy persists.

2026 is viewed as a transformative year for Silver, with commodities outperforming amid anticipated global challenges (e.g., political instability, financial strains).

 

Reference:

Rowan Hogg (December 22, 2025) - The Vedic Astrology of Silver in 2026: Silver Prices About to Enter New Reality. (video)

Silver (SI-Futures) Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1973-2024.

 

See also:
Rowan Hogg (December 26, 2025) - Financial Astrology 2026: 10 Predictions that will shape the Markets. (video)

2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities | Larry Williams

Professional bears and purveyors of pessimism often emerge at this time of year with gloom-and-doom narratives. While there are indeed periods to adopt a bearish stance, currently such warnings should be approached with caution. 

  

The standout stock of 2025 has been Nvidia. My forecast for the first few months of 2026 suggests a decline into mid-February, followed by a strong rally into April. On a longer-term basis, indicated by the blue line representing the extended cycle, Nvidia has historically rallied approximately 75% of the time during similar periods. This pattern is expected from mid-February into May, presenting a favorable opportunity for Nvidia investors.

 

Edgar Lawrence Smith's research in the 1930s profoundly influenced Warren Buffett. Smith demonstrated that stocks outperform bonds over long periods, particularly through compounding via retained earnings in growing companies. Buffett emphasized firms with disciplined reinvestment of profits. Smith also identified a dominant 3.5-year cycle in stock prices. Out-of-sample testing from 1930 onward reveals cycle lows that marked excellent buying opportunities in 1995, 1998, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2019, and 2023. This cycle points to another potential buying opportunity in 2026. 

 

Historical data on years ending in "6," dating back to 1806, show that 85% closed higher, with only four instances of declines. Additionally, after three consecutive up years, the fourth year has been positive eight out of eleven times. These patterns suggest high odds for continued upward momentum, provided supportive fundamentals persist.

 

The M2 money supply exhibits a cycle of approximately six to seven years. Lows in this cycle have historically aligned with bull market advances, as seen from 1960 onward. The next upswing is projected for 2026, introducing a bullish bias, though not guaranteeing a straight-line rally. 

 

 

In summary, 2026 is likely to feature higher stock prices, declining interest rates, and rising inflation. I expect an historic buy point for US stocks. For detailed forecasts, visit iReallyTrade.com starting January 1.

Reference:
Larry Williams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities. (video)
Larry Williams (January 1, 2026) - Forecast 2026.

 

» This is the best market to trade in 2026. «

  

See also:

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025. 

Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

My Conversion to Heliocentric Financial Astrology | Malcolm G. Bucholtz

The year 2025 marked a pivotal turning point in my professional journey. When I was first introduced to astrology at the 2012 United Astrology Conference (UAC) in New Orleans, the presentations centered exclusively on geocentric astrology. This approach emphasized planets in signs and houses, retrograde motions, and the purported influence of distant bodies such as Pluto (with its 248-year orbital period), Neptune, and Uranus—even in the context of financial astrology. I accepted these ideas without reservation, as they represented the prevailing consensus among attendees and appeared to be the only legitimate framework.

S&P 500 vs. 225-day orbital and 243-day axial spin cycles of Venus: April 2025 lows marked conclusion of spin cycle; midpoint of orbital cycle closely coincided with October 30 highs; December downturn occurred at termination of spin cycle.

Over the ensuing years, I authered books, conducted extensive research, and published newsletters, all rooted in this geocentric perspective. Nevertheless, persistent doubts gradually surfaced: an inner voice highlighted the methods’ inconsistent outcomes. Though I initially disregarded these misgivings, they became impossible to ignore by 2025. Deeper scientific literature portrays the solar system as a vast resonance machine: finely balanced and harmonically interdependent, such that altering the motion of any single planet would destabilize the entire structure. As inhabitants of Earth, humans are inherently attuned to these cosmic rhythms—whether consciously or not—and this attunement manifests emotionally in collective market behavior reflected on price charts.

 

I eventually uncovered papers by astronomers and mathematicians who, operating outside mainstream consensus, attribute phenomena such as climate change to celestial influences rather than human activity. When integrated with findings from medical journals, their work offered profound insight. These researchers maintain that only five planets warrant attention: Mercury, Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn. Distant bodies like Pluto and Uranus can be disregarded owing to their negligible effects.  

 

 

 The Sun's offset from the center of mass of the solar system

 (black dots on the left side of dates), 2025-2040.

Earth’s 23.4° axial tilt fosters seasonal stability; 

Uranus’s 97.8° tilt "sideways" obliquity.

 

Jupiter and Saturn, by virtue of their immense mass, join the inner planets in exerting gravitational forces on the Sun’s surface during precise angular alignments. Such configurations prompt increased solar radiation in the form of sunspots; although Earth’s magnetic field deflects a portion of this energy, a substantial amount reaches the surface. Medical research connects this phenomenon to the "sodium-potassium pump model", discovered in 1957 by Jens Christian Skou. This model elucidates cellular responses, whereby influxes of solar energy trigger biochemical cascades that heighten susceptibility to emotional shifts correlated with variations in solar emissions.

Most financial instruments frequently align with multiples or fractions of Mercury’s and Venus’s orbital and rotational periods.

 

I observed that major heliocentric alignments involving Mercury, Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn consistently coincide with increased volatility or trend reversals across various assets, including the S&P 500, gold, coffee, orange juice, wheat, corn, oil, and cocoa. Although directional outcomes differ—some bullish, others bearish, and some leading to sideways consolidation—the effects are reliable when correlating heliocentric planetary positions with price charts. This pattern can be attributed to solar emissions influencing human emotion through cellular chemistry. 

In preparing the "Financial Astrology Almanac 2026", I employed the periodogram function—a mathematical tool for time-series analysis—to detect dominant cycles in price data. Nearly all examined financial instruments exhibit cycles that frequently align with multiples or fractions of Mercury’s periods (88-day orbit; 58.65-day rotation) and Venus’s periods (225-day orbit; 243-day rotation).  

Reference:
Malcolm G. Bucholtz (December 21, 2025) - The 2026 Almanac is now Available. (video)

On December 20, 2025, an active solar region erupted with vibrant, magnetically

guided coronal loops, marking Solar Cycle 25’s progression toward its 2025 peak.

 

See also:
Malcolm G. Bucholtz (December 20, 2025) - Financial Astrology Almanac 2026: Trading and Investing Using the Planets.

Malcolm G. Bucholtz (2025) - Heliocentric Planetary Events and Financial Markets. 

Theodor Landscheidt (1989) - Astrologers and Scientists. 

 

ज्योतिष
Jyotisha, Science of Light. 

Why a US War with Venezuela Would Benefit Russia | Dmitry Seleznyov

As cynical and crude as it may sound, a US war with Venezuela would benefit Russia. Venezuela could become America's "Ukraine," diverting US attention and resources away from our own conflict in Ukraine. The United States risks getting bogged down in a war it starts—especially if it launches a ground operation. In that case, Venezuela could turn into a second Vietnam for the US. Either way, South American countries would likely rally in solidarity to support it, uniting the continent in a fight against the "gringos." 

 

 » Uniting the continent in a fight against the "gringos." «

It won't be possible to tear the country apart with impunity; there won't be an easy walkover, and the US could face unacceptable losses. On the international stage, Russia and China would provide support—both politically and through hybrid means. On one hand, we'd be whispering sweet nothings to those Witkoffs or whoever's in charge in that administration, while on the other, quietly fueling Maduro's fire. Why not? If others can do it, why can't we? Of course, we'd offer help with the constraint that we're still tied down in Ukraine, but we'd do what we can.  

 

» Why not? If others can do it, why can't we? «

 

If things in Venezuela escalate to a hot phase and body bags start flowing back to Trump's "Great America," the MAGA electorate won't like it. Trump was elected to do the opposite. Fighting a war in Venezuela isn't just getting involved for Israel's sake or bombing Iran on the other side of the world—this one's right in America's backyard, with short supply lines. Not to mention that Trump would permanently lose his carefully cultivated image as a "peacemaker," the one he wants to be remembered for in history. A war in Venezuela would brand him forever as the man who tied a bloody ribbon of a second Vietnam around America's neck. Does Trump want that? Doubtful.

 

But Trump is pushing hard—he always plays the bluff game. Recently, Mr. Twitter declared a no-fly zone, and just the other day, he went even further with a full blockade. In effect, that's already a declaration of war. Will Maduro escalate? Sure, a direct conflict could end in different ways, but if Trump has already sentenced the Venezuelan president, what does he have to lose? Escalation often leads to de-escalation. Remember how young Kim Jong-un told Trump to get lost on surrendering nuclear weapons—and nothing happened; he ended up as a "good guy."
 

But for now, our friend Maduro is acting unconvincingly. Chanting "peace, peace, peace" won't stop an inevitable war. "You're only guilty of making me hungry," as the fable goes—red-haired Donnie's intentions are clear. So why wait? Look at the "barefoot" Houthis—they drove off American ships from clustering near their coast. And they're still standing strong. 

Or what—surrender?

Quoted from:
Dmitry Seleznyov (December 18, 2025) - Why a US War with Venezuela Would Benefit Russia.

(Чем выгодна России война США с Венесуэлой.) 

 

» The Pathetic Empire. «

Caracas, December 18, 2025: Venezuelan naval forces have begun escorting non-sanctioned oil tankers carrying petroleum derivatives, reportedly destined for China, in direct response to US President Donald Trump's December 16 announcement of a "total and complete blockade" targeting sanctioned vessels entering or leaving Venezuela. The escalation follows the US seizure on December 10 of the tanker Skipper, carrying approximately 1.9 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, which Trump indicated the US would retain. 

 

Venezuela has condemned these actions as aggression, requesting an urgent United Nations Security Council meeting to address perceived violations of international law. Domestically, PDVSA workers staged protests across multiple states in defense of national sovereignty, while Vice President Delcy Rodríguez reaffirmed the uninterrupted operation of the hydrocarbons sector. Amid the tensions, President Nicolás Maduro reported that Venezuela achieved 9 percent GDP growth in 2025 despite sanctions, with projections of at least 7 percent for 2026.

Upcoming 40-Day Hurst Cycle Troughs: SPX, NDX, Crude Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

S&P 500 (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough ideally due December 23 (Tue)(± 5.49 CD). 

While the 20-week, 40-week, and 18-month cycles all remain in decline, a choppy counter-trend Santa Claus rally of uncertain

magnitude is expected into year-end early-January 2026 (see 'Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle' below). 

Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026. 

[Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of

each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts.] 

 

 Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle.

 

DJIA / CPI (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1940-2025).

 

 NASDAQ (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).

 

 NASDAQ (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 23 (Tue). 

Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026.  

 

 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).

 

 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Current 18-Month Cycle (October 2024-December 2025).

 

Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 19-21 (Fri-Sun). One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month

cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around February 17 (Tue), 2026.  

 

 Gold (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1995-2025).

 

 Gold (daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 28 (Sun) and January 5 (Mon), 2026. 

One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycle troughs 

are currently projected to around late February-mid March 2026. 

 

 Bitcoin (daily bars, log-scale): Long-Term Cycles (2010-2025).

 

 Bitcoin (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 20 (Sat).

Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 19 (Mon), 2026. 

[Cycle Analysis as of December 18, 2025 | 11:00 a.m. EST] 

 

See also:

David Hickson (December 15, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Market Update and Outlook into Early 2026.

Jack Gillen (December 1, 2025) - The Year-End Rally and January Effect in US Stocks.

Cyclic Vibrations Consultancy - TimeSeriesSCC Analytical Software.

  

Principles of Commonality and Variation.