Monday, June 24, 2024

Nasdaq’s Midyear Rally from around June 26 to July 12 | Jeff Hirsch

In the mid-1980s tech’s influence in the market began to grow and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. In anticipation of positive results, over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. 
 

This 12-day run has been up 30 of the past 39 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. Look for this rally to begin around June 26 and run until about July 12.


After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last fourteen years, up twelve times with two losses. After struggling in the bear market of 2022, NASDAQ resoundingly rebounded last year to gain 4.1% compared to a total July gain of 4.0%.

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Thursday, June 20, 2024

Cosmic Cluster Days | July 2024

 Cosmic Cluster Day  |   Composite Line  |  Cosmic Noise Channel
○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon

Cosmic Cluster Days and financial markets have no consistent fixed polarity nor directional bias. Nonetheless, swing directions, highs and lows  — also inside of the 'noise channel'  — may correlate or coincide with financial market directions and reversals. 
 
Upcoming Cluster Days are: 
 
Jun 26 (Wed)
Jun 28 (Fri)
Jul 04 (Thu)
Jul 21 (Sun)
Jul 23 (Tue)
Aug 19 (Mon)
 
Cosmic Cluster Days during May - June 2024 HERE
 
More background information on the original author, the concept and calculation of Cosmic Cluster Days  HERE.
 
Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE during July 2024:

2024 06 29 (Sat) = SUN @ 8 CAN = 98 degrees = high
July 04 (Thu) = SUN @ 13 CAN = 103 degrees = low
July 07 (Sun) = SUN @ 16 CAN = 106 degrees = high
July 10 (Wed) = SUN @ 18 CAN = 108 degrees = low
July 24 (Wed) = SUN @ 2 LEO = 122 degrees = low
July 29 (Mon) = SUN @ 6 LEO = 126 degrees = high
2024 08 09 (Fri) = SUN @ 17 LEO = 137 degrees = low 

No turning points in the Geocentric Bradley Barometer during July 2024.
 
The SoLunar Rhythm in July 2024.
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Tuesday, June 18, 2024

The Taylor Trading Technique | Scott Hoffman

In my opinion, George Douglass Taylor was one of the greatest trading thinkers, and luckily he left behind one book on trading: 'The Taylor Trading Technique' (1950). This book lays out his 'Taylor Book Method' for swing trading in futures. Taylor postulated that the markets had patterns based on "market engineering" from the "powers that be" in the grain markets. These insiders would frequently cause prices to decline to set up a buying opportunity for themselves. Then, after the market rallied sufficiently to yield profit for these insiders, a short-term top was created to give them a selling opportunity. The market would sell off, and the cycle would start again. 
 
George Douglass Taylor was a grain trader in the 1940s and 1950s at the CBOT pit
and is credited original author of the 3 Day Cycle Short-Term Trading System.

The effect of this engineering was to amplify the natural rhythm of the market, creating false moves that would fool traders into buying when they should be selling, and vice versa. The thrust of the Taylor Technique is to identify this rhythm and take advantage of the "false moves". I have long maintained that if an individual could identify moves in the market that would serve to inflict the most pain on unwary traders then they would have a great trading system. I believe the Taylor Technique does that. Taylor created this method for the grain futures markets, but I find it equally applicable in the financial futures markets today. 
 
George Douglass Taylor’s system of short-term swing trading is based on the premise that the market moves in two to three day timeframes, moving from a low to a high and back to a low. The other important concepts are the importance of the previous day’s high and low, the length of upswings relative to downswings, and being a solely technical trader (ignoring fundamentals).

Cycle Day #1 – Buy Day
The first day of the cycle is the buying day. Look for a Buy Day two days after a swing high (the highest high of the past few days). On a Buy Day, look for the market to make its lows first, finding support around yesterday’s low. If the market opens flat to higher, look to buy the first sell off towards the previous low. If the market trades under yesterday’s low, be careful about going home long. The market should close higher than where it opened. If it is making new lows late in the day, it is usually best to exit. You can often get in the next day at a better price.
 
Cycle Day #1 - Buy Day
Two-Day Rate Of Change = ROC(2) 

Generally, it’s good rule of thumb not to buy late in the day on a buy day if the market is heading lower or closing lower than where it opened. Odds favor a lower opening the next day, giving you a better enter price. Likewise, if the market is going to close lower than it opened, don’t be afraid to liquidate your position. Odds are in your favor that you’ll be able to buy at a lower price the next day.

Cycle Day #2 – Sell Day
If you are long and the market is closing in your favor, carry your long position overnight. Odds favor a higher opening the next day setting up the Sell Day, the second day of the cycle. On the Sell Day you should look to sell into strength, liquidating your position, and going home flat. Often, the sell day trades on both sides in what I call a 'fade' day. A fade day often follows a trend day and can be traded from either side.

 Cycle Day #2 - Sell Day

Cycle Day #3 – Sell Short Day
The third day of the cycle is the Sell Short Day. The Sell Short Day is the mirror image of the buying day. On a sell short day, you should be looking to sell early morning resistance, looking for resistance around the previous day’s high. The market should not be making highs late in the day, if it is you should be able to get a better entry point the next day. On a Sell Short Day, the market should close lower than it opened. The Sell Short Day is often followed by a 'Fade' day.
 
Cycle Day #3 - Sell Short Day.

That is the gist of Taylor’s technique - a rhythm of buy-sell-sell short. I don’t always recognize where we are in Taylor’s cycle (you’re always learning!), but on days when it is clear, at the least it gives you a good indication of the market’s bias for that day. In swing trading, the relation of the open to the close should indicate the direction of the next morning’s opening. This helps you determine whether the odds favor being a buyer or a seller on a given day.

Reference:
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Monday, June 17, 2024

The Summer Rally | Wayne Whaley

This study looks at the S&P performance from June19 - July23 in those 29 years of the last 40 in which the trailing Quarter, March19 - June19 was positive. As of June 15, the March19 - June19 time frame, with three trading days remaining, is up 4.89% for 2024. The June19 - July23 reaction period will be split into two measures which have distinctly different characteristics, namely June19 - 27 and June27 - July23. 
 
  • The June 19 - 27 period which is strongly correlated to the June Post Opex week has been negative in this setup in 17 of the last 19 years.
  • The last 14 cases has seen June27 - July23 positive, as well as 25 of the last 29 cases, the so called summer rally time frame you have heard speak of.
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June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration – A Volatility Haven │ Jeff Hirsch

The second Quadruple Witching Week of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week, down 23 times in 42 years. Quad-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 21 years, but down 6 of the last 8.

 

Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Quad-Witching Day is horrendous. 
 

This week has experienced DJIA losses in 28 of the last 34 years with an average performance of –0.83%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 34-year span. S&P 500 averaged –0.49%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. Sizable gains in 2021 and 2022 during the week after improved historical average performance notably.

 
NASDAQ 100 (30 m candles)
Friday, June  14 = Buy Day
Monday, June 17 = Sell Day (= sell short positions)
Week # 3/1 in the 3 Week Cycle
XAMD Week (X = Monday Continuation of Friday's direction - A = Tuesday Accumulation 
- M = Wednesday Manipulation Low, Reset for Continuation into Friday High
- D = Thursday Distribution = June 20 Full Moon/Summer Solstice High?)
Weekly Profile: Wednesday High/Low of the Week, Consolidation Thursday (D) Bearish Reversal
or Consolidation Midweek (M) Rally?

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The Market Makers Method | Jones Zondo

Price is a reflection of the number of transactions and the price paid for these transactions. A large number of transactions are required in order to shift price. The Forex market is said to trade about $4,000,000,000,000 [four trillion dollars] on average daily. The bulk of transactions are executed by large “Warren Buffet” institutions, and not by laptop traders such as ourselves.

 » A typical pattern of behavior particularly when analyzing the Three-Day Cycle is to be able
to identify a peak high followed by three moves down and a reversal which will form a peak low. «

Market Maker ability to dominate the market is overwhelming. It costs roughly 10,000 Lots to move the market by 1 pip, with this in mind Market Makers have the ability to move the price at will and retail traders can’t. For a retail trader to truly succeed in Forex, you need to at least have a concept of this Mammoth process so that you will understand what is happening and why. Rather you adapt to trade with them instead of against them once we are done with the secrets. Once you realize that price is moved as a result of intention, logic decision and the idea that price is a product of emotional feeling (sentiments) of various traders is misguiding “BS”. Failure to realize this, your trade career will be emotion driven leaving you to react to every trade.

 
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Sunday, June 16, 2024

The Complete 3 Day Cycle Short-Term Trading System | Cameron Benson

 
[...] Back in the 1950s George Douglass Taylor was a pit trader and he is the original author of the 3-Day Cycle. He watched the people trading larger capital and started to notice a rhythmic 1, 2, 3 to the markets. He used these rhythmic studies to develop the 3-Day Cycle Short-Term Trading System.
  1. A Buy Day (Day 1) occurs after 1-5 Days of decline, when a market that has opened, made its low in the morning, and closed in the upper third of the days range.
  2. Then follows the Sell Day (Day 2) which in fact (contrary to what its name suggests) rallies higher above Day 1 and one could already cover long positions on that day. However, if the 'Sell Day' has a strong close, a directional follow through could occur the next day (Day 3/1).
  3. The Sell Short Day (Day 3) could come immediately following the Buy Day (Day 1), if price action presents in the opposite direction. However, after Day 1 the market could also move higher for 2-3 days before printing new highs in the morning, and close in the lower third of the days range. If you ever notice a market breaking out for 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 days in one direction, it's probably because it is breaking out of a larger structural pattern. [...] 
 » Once you see it, you can't unsee it. «

 
» The largest Aha moment I ever had when I started trading the 3 Day Cycle strategy was that the above three things can be traded completely different. It is massively important to your understanding of this style of trading:

(1.) 3 Day Setups using signal days (previous day's high and low, inside day, first green/red day).
(2.) Weekly Template.
(3.) 3 Day Cycle.
 
All three can also be mashed together into one big trading strategy that will present setups for parabolic trend trades, short squeeze, long squeeze, and some other setups that can help you get into the trade. « - Cameron Benson, 2023 

 
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Friday, June 14, 2024

The Principle of Contraction/Expansion | Toby Crabel

 » The principle of Contraction/Expansion is defined as the market phenomenon of change from a period of rest 
to a period of movement back to a period of rest. This interaction between the phases of motion and rest 
are constantly taking place, with one phase directly responsible for the others' existence. «  
Toby Crabel, 1990
 
In his study 'Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout' Toby Crabel defined the following range contraction and expansion patterns:

NR4 - The narrowest daily range relative to the previous three day’s daily ranges compared individually.
NR7 - A day with a daily range that is narrower than the previous six day’s daily ranges compared individually.
WS4 - (Widespread 4) A day with a daily range that is larger than any of the previous three day’s daily ranges.
WS7 - (Widespread 7) A day with a daily range that is larger than any of the previous six day’s daily ranges
             compared individually.

His key findings were: A cumulative total of Gross Profits for the contraction patterns vs expansion patterns on trades in the direction of the move off the open showed $710,000 for contractions on 7,313 trades and $102,000 for expansions on 7,524 trades. Profits were seven times larger for ORB (Opening Range Breakout) trades after contractions than expansions.

» Clearly something is going on here. The suggestion from these results is that one should be looking to go with a forceful move off the open after a contraction and not willing to do so after an expansion. In fact, fading price action off the open, with trend, after an expansion is a consideration. Other patterns can help with the decision on whether to fade a move off the open along with previously mentioned market context. If nothing else, one should be aware of the dangers of ORB trades the day after a big directional day. Caution is necessary after expansions. This is when the most attention is given to the market by the novice trades who invariably get caught in whipsaws and trendless markets. «  

Bitcoin - Inside Bar Narrow Range 4 (ID/NR4)
in monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hour bar charts.

» An object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed 
and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force. «
Isaac Newton's 'First Law of Motion', 1687
 
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Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Swing Points as Trend Change Indication | Larry Williams

A trend change from up to down occurs when a short-term high is exceeded on the upside, a short-term trend change from down to up is identified by price going below the most recent short-term low. Figure 8.1 depicts such trend changes in a classic manner, study it well because reality comes next! Here are a couple of pointers on this technique. Although the penetration of one of these short-term highs, in a declining market, indicates a trend reversal to the upside, some penetrations are better than others.

 Figure 8.1 — Classic patterns of trend change.

» There are only two ways a short-term high or low is broken. «
 Figure 8.2 — Breaking a short-term high or low.

There are only two ways a short-term high or low is broken. In an up trending market, the low that is violated or fallen below will be either a low prior to making a new rally high, as shown at (A) in Figure 8.2, or a low that occurs after decline of a high that then rallies making a lower short-term high; it then declines below the low prior to the rally that failed to make a new high, as shown at (B). The better indication of a real trend change is the violation of the low shown at (A). By the same token, a trend reversal to the upside will occur in one of the two following patterns: In (A), the rally peak prior to a new low is violated to the upside, or in (B), the market makes a higher low, then rallies above the short-term high between those two lows. In this case, again, the (A) pattern is the better indication of a real trend reversal.

Figure 8.3 — T-bonds (15-minute bars)

With that in mind, look at Figure 8.3, which shows a 15-minute bar chart of the September Bonds in 1989. The major trend moves were adequately captured by this technique. [...] You can use this technique two ways. Some traders may simply buy long and sell short on these changes in trend. That's a basic simplistic approach.

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Tuesday, June 11, 2024

2024 Declinations of the Sun, the Moon & the Planets | Parallels & Extremes

» Every parallel or contra-parallel is very important to the strength of a business chart. «
Kaye Shinker, 2006.
 
A parallel aspect is formed between two or more planets at the same declination or distance north or south of the ecliptic. If the planets are both north or both south of the ecliptic, the Parallel Aspect is read as a Conjunction. If they are at the same declination but one is north and the other south of the ecliptic, then the Contra-Parallel Aspect is read as an Opposition. Parallel and contra-parallel aspects are strongest when the orb is small (±1 degree). They magnify other aspects between planets and nodes. The assumption is that extreme declinations - especially lunar ones - are intense energy points, and when reached, some sort of a perceptible short-term effect or reversal would manifest in daily and 4 Hour charts. The nature and magnitude of the effect is related to the market's  position/stage in the daily and weekly market maker cycles.

 Parallel @ Maximum Declination North (±1 degree):
June 20, 2024 (Thu) = Summer Solstice = Sun @ Maximum Declination North
[June 21, 2024 (Fri) = Full Moon + Solunar High]
June 21, 2024 (Fri) = Mercury @ Maximum Declination North + Out-of-Bounds
June 21, 2024 (Fri) = Venus @ Maximum Declination North + Out-of-Bounds
June 21, 2024 (Fri) = Quadruple Witching Day
 
Maximum Declination South & Contra-Parallel to the above:
June 22, 2024 (Sat) = Moon @ Maximum Declination South + Out-of-Bounds

ooo0ooo
 
Declinations Ephemerides can be found e.g. HERE & HERE
 
See also:
 
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Sunday, June 9, 2024

An Outside Look at Inside Days | Larry Williams

First, lets define what constitutes an inside day. An Inside Day is exactly the opposite of an Outside Day. That is, today’s high is less than yesterday’s high and today’s low is greater than yesterday’s low. Hence the terminology inside day, as all of today’s price range or trading activity took place inside of yesterday’s range. An inside day is usually thought to be an indication of congestion. A price could not exceed the previous day on the upside nor could it break below the previous day’s low on the downside.

 » Inside Days are one of the most reliable forecasting patterns to occur in the marketplace. «
 
Chartists and authors have not paid very much attention to the inside days over the years. They have made note of them, but this is the first time, to my knowledge, that anyone has made a serious study of the impact of inside days. And, wouldn’t you just know it … inside days are one of the most reliable forecasting patterns to occur in the marketplace!

  » In a study of nine major commodities covering 50,692 trading sessions, I noted 3,892 inside days,
suggesting we will see these days appear about 7.6 percent of the time. «
Larry Williams, 1998.

There does seem to be some validity to this. The following chart shows what happens when we have an inside day with a down-close while prices are lower than they were 10 days ago. In the Standard and Poor’s, 71% of the time you were higher the next day. This may not even be as significant as the fact that 71% of the time you were higher 20 days after this occurrence. In the Value Line, price is higher 50% of the time after the occurrence, and in Treasury Bonds it’s higher 75% of the time. The pattern in Silver was not nearly as bullish, which surprises me because I had used this trading technique in Silver with some success … which just goes to show you! In Silver, on 36% of the time you were higher 20 days following the occurrence of the pattern. Soybeans were higher 57% of the time, Bellies 50% of the time and the Swiss Franc, where so far we have not found a pattern that forces prices higher, you were up only 22% of the time.

'Inside Days in the S&P 500' - Toby Crabel, 1990.

For a moment though, let’s take a look at just the occurrence of an inside day. What happens when we simply have an inside day with a down-close? Does that, on its own merit, forecast any significant market activity? The results are on the next few pages [of 'The Future Millionaire's Confidential Trading Course']. What can you find?

Then there’s the other side of this coin. What happens if we have an inside day with an up-close? Does this forecast positive action? It appears that it does to some extent. Study the tables for yourself. I have gone to the computer to give you the results for almost all possible configurations of the inside days. While, quite frankly, much of the data suggests random-gibberish-behavior, others are relationships that you can find and successfully trade with. What you need to focus on here is not that the patterns will always work for you, but that patterns, like methods, systems and tools, will give you the much needed odds that lead to successful speculation.
 
I have not exhausted all possible ways of looking at inside days with down-closes, though I have looked at the majority of the relationships one can study. There are others. As an example, what happens if the prices are higher, or if prices are lower following an inside day five days later. Does that mean that the down trend will continue? One could also ask the questions about an outside day following an inside day. Is this a particularly bullish pattern? (It is.) As you can see, your opportunity for research here is unlimited. If you have a computer, some data, and a desire to study the markets, here is fertile ground for you to come up with your own great ideas.

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