Sunday, March 23, 2014

March 18, 2014: Pivot of History and Ascent of a Multi-Polar World System

March 18, 2014 – Address of Russian President Vladimir Putin to State Duma deputies, Federation Council members, heads of Russian regions, Representatives of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, civil society representatives in the Kremlin, and to “The West”:

After the dissolution of bipolarity on the planet, we no longer have stability. Key international institutions are not getting any stronger; on the contrary, in many cases, they are sadly degrading. Our western partners, led by the United States of America, prefer not to be guided by international law in their practical policies, but by the rule of the gun. They have come to believe in their exclusivity and exceptionalism, that they can decide the destinies of the world, that only they can ever be right. They act as they please: here and there, they use force against sovereign states, building coalitions based on the principle “If you are not with us, you are against us.” To make this aggression look legitimate, they force the necessary resolutions from international organisations, and if for some reason this does not work, they simply ignore the UN Security Council and the UN overall.

Vladimir Putin: Against the equality of good and evil.
 
[…] I understand those who came out on Maidan with peaceful slogans against corruption, inefficient state management and poverty […] However, those who stood behind the latest events in Ukraine […] resorted to terror, murder and riots. Nationalists, neo-Nazis, Russophobes and anti-Semites executed this coup […] We understand what is happening; we understand that these actions were aimed against Ukraine and Russia and against Eurasian integration […] We have every reason to assume that the infamous policy of containment, led in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries, continues today. They are constantly trying to sweep us into a corner because we have an independent position, because we maintain it and because we call things like they are and do not engage in hypocrisy. But there is a limit to everything. And with Ukraine, our western partners have crossed the line.

[…] It is at historic turning points such as these that a nation demonstrates its maturity and strength of spirit. The Russian people showed this maturity and strength through their united support for their compatriots. Russia’s foreign policy position on this matter drew its firmness from the will of millions of our people, our national unity and the support of our country’s main political and public forces […] Obviously, we will encounter external opposition, but this is a decision that we need to make for ourselves. Are we ready to consistently defend our national interests, or will we forever give in, retreat to who knows where? […] Russia will also have to make a difficult decision now, taking into account the various domestic and external considerations. What do people here in Russia think? Here, like in any democratic country, people have different points of view, but I want to make the point that the absolute majority of our people clearly do support what is happening.

In his 2013 annual Presidential address to the Federal Assembly, Vladimir Putin clearly expressed:

[…] Today, many nations are revising their moral values and ethical norms, eroding ethnic traditions and differences between peoples and cultures. Society is now required not only to recognise everyone’s right to the freedom of consciousness, political views and privacy, but also to accept without question the equality of good and evil, strange as it seems, concepts that are opposite in meaning. This destruction of traditional values from above not only leads to negative consequences for society, but is also essentially anti-democratic, since it is carried out on the basis of abstract, speculative ideas, contrary to the will of the majority, which does not accept the changes occurring or the proposed revision of values. We know that there are more and more people in the world who support our position on defending traditional values that have made up the spiritual and moral foundation of civilisation in every nation for thousands of years: the values of traditional families, real human life, including religious life, not just material existence but also spirituality, the values of humanism and global diversity. Of course, this is a conservative position. But speaking in the words of Nikolai Berdyaev, the point of conservatism is not that it prevents movement forward and upward, but that it prevents movement backward and downward, into chaotic darkness and a return to a primitive state.

The President of Russia is leading the global resistance against the Empire of Wall Street and the City of London. He stopped their genocidal depredation in Russia. This is why they hate him, why they attempt to kill him, and why the corporate media cheers thugs like Yulia Tymoshenko and Mikhail Khodorkovsky as if they were heroes of democracy. 
 
For 250 years, the imperial West has waged wars, destroying nation after nation, producing failed states, terrorism, chaos, and millions of casualties. This was the second NATO coup in Ukraine within a decade. The road to Moscow leads through Kyiv. But this time, Vladimir Putin’s Russia was prepared and not alone: After the latest coup in Ukraine, Crimea hastily joined Russia on March 18, 2014, before becoming subject to IMF looting or another ‘civil war’ orchestrated by NATO. 
 
The unification of Crimea and Russia is backed by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This military and economic alliance was founded in 1996 in response to the globalizing savagery of NATO. Today, the SCO comprises six member states, five observer states, three dialogue partners, and three guest attendees from five non-Western civilizations (Russian, Chinese, Muslim, Hindu, and Buddhist—four of which are nuclear powers) from the South China Sea to the Baltic Sea and from the Persian Gulf to the Bay of Bengal. In terms of potential, production, infrastructure, economic growth, and prosperity, this is the most successful and promising alliance in recorded history. 
 
This is not an empire; it is an alliance of sovereign states, and their relations are governed by international law. This is the very opposite of the poisonous 'one-world' gospel of the globalists and the 'clash-of-civilizations' ideology of the liberals.

Pro-Russian protesters with banner reading “Odessa for referendum!”
in the center of Odessa, March 23, 2014.
 
China knows very well that it is next in NATO’s line for 'freedom' and 'democracy,' and that without the SCO and Russia’s energy supply, it would fall prey to the Empire. Therefore, China supports Russia, Syria, Iran, Sudan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and a new multipolar world system. 
 
The fascist regime in Kyiv has no legitimacy at all and won’t last. The EU has no means to sanction Russia. The EU is not a superpower; it is not the White Knight and won't rescue anybody. The EU is merely a deeply corrupted, pitiful, and bankrupt US protectorate on the brink of collapse and revolution itself. However, in this latest freedom-and-democracy scam, the EU is once again the colonial aid of the international banking cartel. And once again, they came to loot: Ukraine's gold was flown out to London and New York two weeks ago. 
 
Last week, the EU showed up in Kyiv offering a multi-billion Euro credit conjured by Mr. Draghi out of nothing to support Ukraine. Nobody takes this seriously. The Ukrainians will overthrow Euro-fascism and join the Eurasian Customs Union or split the country. Any sanctions will only strengthen Eurasian integration and increase unemployment and misery in the EU.

The US will continue to play India as the continental dagger against China and Pakistan until an Indian Putin emerges and integrates the country into the SCO. Venezuela has been fighting imperialism since 1998. Without nuclear defense capabilities and strong allies in the region, the people of Venezuela may soon perish and see their oil, gas, and gold stolen once again, degrading them into poverty. 
 
That said, with more than 60% of the world’s population, the momentum toward a new international system and future world trade and economy is intimately related to the SCO and the BRICS. All of them are building up gold reserves and are about to create an independent currency, a BRICS bank, and a BRICS currency reserve pool. The SCO and the BRICS could already destabilize the Euro and the US dollar by dumping them into the exchange markets. The FED and the ECB would not be able to arrange currency swaps with other countries large enough to buy up the dumped currency, causing exchange values to fall. Such an action could be a response to more hostile NATO activities.

If this is indeed the “beginning of the end” for the globalist Empire, it is still only the very beginning of a long and dangerous process: The next big NATO war will be the endgame for the absolute rule of a cynical world hegemon over 99% of the global population. Some empires die peacefully, destroyed by economic ruin, overstretch, and social implosion; others prefer to perish in an orgy of violence.
 
Reference:

Monday, March 3, 2014

Moon and Stocks - The Four Lunar Month Cycle

Markets repeat directly or inversely somewhere between (+/- 2 days) the 4 Lunar Month Cycle (118.12 Days)
and the average synodic period of Mercury (116.88 Days). More on the Delta Phenomenon HERE - Please note:
Inversions of polarity oftentimes occur +/- 2 weeks around equinoxes and solstices (HERE)


Sunspots and Stocks - The Short-Term

Everything in the universe is constantly bathing in fluctuating electro-magnetic forces and fields that affect virtually every circuit in biological systems. Human physiological rhythms and global behaviors are not only synchronized with solar and geomagnetic activity, but disruptions in these fields can also create adverse effects on human health and behavior. Changes in geomagnetic activity are correlated with altered blood pressure, heart rate, melatonin levels, and increased occurrence of cancer, balance of hormonal system, reproductive system, cardiac and neurological disease, hospital admissions and mortality, as well as depression, fatigue, mental confusion, and traffic accidents. 

'Daily Sunspot Numbers' and 'F10.7 Flux' e.g. @ NASA's OMNIWeb
An important finding is that of all the bodily systems studied thus far, changes in solar activity and consequently geomagnetic conditions most strongly affect the rhythms of the heart. Of course electromagnetic fields generated by power supply systems, telecommunications, appliances, computers and other technology are extremely powerful and have similar effects on organisms.

In the late 1990s Jeffrey Owen Katz and Donna McCormick examined the effects of sunspots especially on the S&P 500 and Minnesota Wheat. They developed several profitable trading strategies generating entries and exits based on solar activity alone. However, they concluded: "We personally do not believe solar influences directly determine the market. We do suspect that they act as triggers for events that are predisposed to occur, or as synchronizers of already-present market rhythms with similar periodicities." Well ...

Sunspots, Climate, Agriculture, Financial Markets, and War | The Big Picture

Most people think the Sun rests at the center of the solar system, and
that the planets orbit it. This is almost correct, but not quite (
HERE).
Many cultures have historically believed that solar and extraterrestrial cycles shape collective behavior. Since the start of continuous sunspot tracking in 1755, research has focused on how these cycles affect climate, weather, and global markets. In the social sphere, some studies even link geomagnetic disturbances caused by the solar cycle to increased violence, revolutions, and the escalation of warfare (HERE). 

The Sun’s cyclic activity results from tidal and electromagnetic interactions with the planets, dominated by Jupiter and Saturn. These planets possess 92% of the total planetary mass and 86% of the system’s angular momentum. Their orbital positions significantly influence the solar system's barycenter; when in conjunction, they pull the barycenter well beyond the Sun’s 0.0044 AU radius, whereas in opposition, the barycenter returns to the solar interior. This orbital choreography creates a 178.770-year periodicity in the Sun’s motion around the center of mass. This cycle, consisting of 16 loops, is subject to a "torque cycle"—a periodic variance of ±1.05 years. Defined by nine synodic periods of Jupiter and Saturn (9×19.858=178.722 years), this cycle was famously utilized by Theodor Landscheidt to forecast sunspot activity.


 
The earliest hypothesis regarding the relationship between solar cycles and economic activity was proposed in 1801 by the German astronomer Wilhelm Herschel, who noted a correlation between sunspot activity and wheat prices. In 1875, British economist William Stanley Jevons expanded on this, suggesting that sunspots influenced business cycle crises. Jevons theorized that solar activity dictated Earth’s weather patterns, which subsequently impacted crop yields and the broader economy. However, a 1934 study by Carlos Garcia-Mata and Felix I. Shaffner re-examined these links within the United States. While they found no evidence to support Jevons’ agricultural hypothesis, they discovered a statistically significant correlation between solar cycles and fluctuations in non-agricultural business activity.
 
 
Solar maximums have served as reliable predictors of US recessions, accounting for 8 of the 13 economic downturns between 1935 and 2012. Historically, recessions tend to cluster around these peaks in solar activity; during this period, 8 recessions commenced within a specific window ranging from three months prior to 20 months after a solar maximum. The remaining five downturns, including the Great Recession of 2008–09, can be attributed to distinct geopolitical and systemic shocks. For instance, the brief contraction of 1945 and the recession of 1953–54 resulted from sharp reductions in government spending and military orders following World War II and the Korean War, respectively. Similarly, the 1974–75 recession was precipitated by the global oil crisis, while the 2008–09 financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market and systemic failures in securitization.

 
Between 1948 and 2012, all six periods of solar maximum coincided with troughs in the US unemployment rate. Notably, these solar peaks appeared to mark a turning point: in each instance, the unemployment trend shifted from a steady decline to a rapid increase, typically reaching its peak two to three years after the sunspot maximum.
 
Reference:

George Bayer Forecasts - Food for thought

Nobody is perfect: Monthly forecasts of George Bayer from December 1936 to March 1937

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

SP500 and VIX - Intermediate Term Delta Projections

See also HERE



















Looks like the February 5 Low was a 10 Week Cycle Low

Monday, February 10, 2014

Long-Term Charts: US-Stocks (1789 to date) | Commodities (1770 to date) | Gold (1792 to date) | Elliott Waves in DJI (1920 to date) - Kress Cycles

Credits: H/t @Macro_Tourist through Tyler Durden on 02/08/2014 @ www.zerohedge.com

Credits: H/t @Macro_Tourist through Tyler Durden on 02/08/2014 @ www.zerohedge.com

Credits: H/t @Macro_Tourist through Tyler Durden on 02/08/2014 @ www.zerohedge.com




















Credits: Clif Droke @ www.safehaven.com - see also HERE & HERE & HERE & HERE



















Sunday, February 2, 2014

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

U.S. Stocks in 5th strongest and 6th longest Bull Cycle since 1900




















The bull market since March 2009 is the 22nd bull cycle since 1900. End of December 2013 it was in its 57th month. This is about the length of the current sunspot cycle 24. The ongoing bull market is now also the 6th longest bull cycle and with a performance of 154% (closing December 31st) the 5th strongest since 1900. 


Sunday, January 19, 2014

Sources of Wealth & the American System of Political Economy | Friedrich List

Friedrich List (1789–1846) was born in Reutlingen, Württemberg, in what was not yet a united Germany. As a young economics professor in the aftermath of the Congress of Vienna (1815), he worked for German unity and protective tariffs among the tiny, feudal-ruled German principalities. His German Trade and Tradesmen's Union (Allgemeiner Deutscher Handels- und Gewerbeverein) advocated a free republican constitution and the national promotion of domestic industries. List demanded protection from cheap imports from Britain’s global slave empire that were flooding German markets, fearing that the German people would end up as "drawers of water and hewers of wood for Britain." Austria's Prince Metternich regarded List as an intolerably dangerous "agitator" and arranged for his arrest and imprisonment, eventually forcing him to emigrate to the US in 1824.
 
» The power to create wealth is infinitely more important than wealth itself. «

Contrary to Metternich's intention, this led to List's most fertile period of collaboration with Americans such as Henry Carey and Henry Clay. In a speech before the Pennsylvania Society for the Promotion of Manufactures and the Mechanic Arts in 1827, List threw down the gauntlet: "I herewith declare war against the system of Adam Smith on behalf of the American System of Political Economy." His book 'Outlines on American Political Economy' was written that same year.

While in the US, List opened coal mines, helped plan a canal system, designed rail transportation, and proposed the construction of a Panama Canal. He returned to Germany in 1830 and became the American Consul to Leipzig. There, he launched his program for a national railway network and became known as the "Father of the German Railways." His program for the expansion of the Zollverein (Customs Union) was implemented in 1834. In 1841, List published what remains one of the most important works in the history of political economy, 'The National System of Political Economy,' in which he launched a devastating critique of British free-trade ideology:
"The causes of wealth are something totally different than wealth itself. An individual can possess wealth, i.e., exchange value, but if he does not have the power to create more valuable items than he consumes, he will become impoverished. An individual may be poor, but if he has the power to create a larger amount of valuable items than he consumes, he becomes rich. 

The power to create wealth is therefore infinitely more important than wealth itself; it guarantees not only the possession and increase of what has been acquired, but also the replacement of what has been lost. This is even more the case with whole nations, that cannot live on pensions, than with private persons. 

Germany has been ravaged in every century by plague, by famine, or by internal and external wars, but it has always managed to save much of its productive forces, and so it returned quickly to prosperity, while the rich and powerful, but despot- and priest-ridden Spain, in full possession of domestic peace, sank ever deeper into poverty and misery. The same Sun shines upon the Spaniards, they have the same earth and land, their mines are just as rich, they are the same people as before the discovery of America and before the introduction of the Inquisition; but this people has gradually lost its productive power, so it has become poor and miserable. The North American liberation war has cost that nation hundreds of millions, but through the acquisition of national independence their productive power was strengthened immeasurably, so they could create much greater riches within a few years after the peace than they had ever possessed.

[...] The motto, 'laissez faire, laissez passer' is [...] one that sounds no less pleasant to robbers, cheaters, and thieves than to the merchant, and therefore one ought to regard this maxim with suspicion [...] This perversity, to surrender the interests of manufacturing and agriculture to the unfettered demands of trade, is a natural consequence of that theory, which universally looks only at prices, never allowing for the work required to produce, and views the entire world as one single and indivisible republic of merchants. 

This school of thought [Adam Smith's] does not see that the merchant can achieve his purpose—obtaining profits by trade, even at the expense of agriculture and manufacturing, at the expense of the productive forces—just as easily through the independence and autonomy of nations. It’s all the same to him, and it is in the nature of his business and his aspirations that he cannot give a fig about the effect that the way in which he imports or exports goods might have upon the morality, the prosperity, and the power of the nation. He imports poisons just as he imports medicines. He enervates entire nations with opium and distilled spirits. Whether he provides hundreds of thousands of jobs and livelihood through his imports and chicanery, or whether an equal number are thus brought to beggary, it means nothing to a businessman, so long as it improves his balance sheet."
The core of List's argument is straightforward: surrendering everything to the "invisible hand" of the market amounts to an anarchistic conception of freedom that deliberately refuses to distinguish between theft and productive investment. From this perspective, the British doctrine of free trade had already been challenged by thinkers such as Gottfried Leibniz and Jean-Baptiste Colbert in the seventeenth century, Alexander Hamilton in the eighteenth century, and, again, Henry Carey, Sergei Yulevich Witte, and many others in the nineteenth century.

In more recent times, however, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher (1979–1990) became a fervent follower of the Austrian School's economic liberalism. She had read Friedrich von Hayek's The Road to Serfdom with enthusiasm and subsequently argued that social spending was tantamount to socialism. One simplification followed another: free trade became synonymous with freedom. The October 1986 "Big Bang" was presented as Thatcher's great blow for financial freedom: the sudden and radical deregulation of London’s financial markets. With the abolition of capital controls and the enormous bonuses paid to executives, financial elites from around the world were able to operate with unprecedented freedom in London. London became the largest financial center in the world, accompanied by spectacular growth in the newly deregulated financial sector.

In the US, the deregulation of infrastructure and the systematic reduction of investment in the real economy were promoted by certain Rockefeller protégés of the Mont Pelerin Society and were ultimately set into place under President Jimmy Carter (1977–1981). The process was accelerated significantly under Ronald Reagan (1981–1989). Three decades later, much of the US' industrial and productive employment had disappeared. The example of Detroit became a subject of study for Asian anthropologists examining the collapse of urban culture in a formerly major industrialized nation.

Free trade and deregulation, the argument continues, have produced devastating consequences wherever they have been implemented on a large scale. They contributed to the conditions underlying the current global crisis, which the author characterizes as being orchestrated by a financial oligarchy centered in Wall Street, the City of London, Paris, Frankfurt, Riyadh, and Doha. According to this view, these financial interests employ institutions and mechanisms associated with the Federal Reserve, ECB, IMF, WTO, UN, and NATO to generate enormous profits for a small minority while producing misery and failed states for the many.

At the same time, countries participating in institutions and initiatives such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Union, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are presented as evidence that economic growth and human progress remain possible in the contemporary world. Students of Leibniz, Colbert, and Hamilton, as well as List, Carey, and Witte, continue to advocate the use of state power to create wealth through industrial production, regulate the financial sector, expand high-quality public education and scientific research, strengthen healthcare and productive investment, and establish and protect the social and economic rights of working people and their families.

Thursday, January 9, 2014

SoLunar Tidal Forces 2014


















[Eastern Standard Time (EST) -0500 UTC]

2013-12-26 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-01-01 (Wed) = SuperNewMoon = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-01-04 (Sat) = Earth @ Perihelion
2014-01-07 (Tue) = 1st Quarter
2014-01-09 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-01-15 (Wed) = Full Moon + Moon @ Apogee
2014-01-16 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-01-23 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-01-24 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter
2014-01-30 (Thu) = SuperNewMoon = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-02-06 (Thu) = 1st Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-02-12 (Wed) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-02-14 (Fri) = Full Moon
2014-02-20 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-02-22 (Sat) = 3rd Quarter
2014-02-27 (Thu) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-03-01 (Sat) = New Moon
2014-03-06 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-03-08 (Sat) = 1st Quarter
2014-03-11 (Tue) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-03-16 (Sun) = Full Moon
2014-03-20 (Thu) = Equinox + Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-03-23 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter
2014-03-27 (Thu) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-03-30 (Sun) = New Moon
2014-04-03 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-04-07 (Mon) = 1st Quarter
2014-04-08 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-04-15 (Tue) = Full Moon = Lunar Eclipse
2014-04-16 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-04-22 (Tue) = 3rd Quarter + Moon @ Perigee
2014-04-23 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-04-29 (Tue) = New Moon = Solar Eclipse
2014-04-30 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-05-06 (Tue) = 1st Quarter + Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-05-13 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-05-14 (Wed) = Full Moon
2014-05-18 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-05-21 (Wed) = 3rd Quarter
2014-05-26 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-05-28 (Wed) = New Moon
2014-06-02 (Mon) = Moon @ Apogee
2014-06-03 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-06-05 (Thu) = 1st Quarter
2014-06-10 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-06-12 (Thu) = Full Moon
2014-06-14 (Sat) = Moon @ Perigee
2014-06-15 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-06-19 (Thu) = 3rd Quarter
2014-06-21 (Sat) = Solstice
2014-06-22 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-06-27 (Fri) = New Moon
2014-06-30 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-06-30 (Mon) = Moon @ Apogee
2014-07-03 (Thu) = Earth @ Aphelion
2014-07-05 (Sat) = 1st Quarter
2014-07-08 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-07-12 (Sat) = SuperFullMoon = Moon @ Perigee
2014-07-13 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-07-18 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter
2014-07-20 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-07-26 (Sat) = New Moon
2014-07-27 (Sun) = Moon @ Apogee
2014-07-28 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-08-03 (Sun) = 1st Quarter
2014-08-05 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-08-10 (Sun) = SuperFullMoon = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-08-17 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-08-24 (Sun) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-08-25 (Mon) = New Moon
2014-09-02 (Tue) = 1st Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-09-07 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee
2014-09-09 (Tue) = SuperFullMoon = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-09-14 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-09-15 (Mon) = 3rd Quarter
2014-09-20 (Sat) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-09-23 (Mon) = Equinox
2014-09-24 (Wed) = New Moon
2014-09-29 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-10-01 (Wed) = 1st Quarter
2014-10-06 (Mon) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-10-08 (Wed) = Full Moon = Lunar Eclipse
2014-10-13 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-10-15 (Wed) = 3rd Quarter
2014-10-18 (Sat) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-10-23 (Thu) = New Moon = Solar Eclipse
2014-10-26 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-10-30 (Thu) = 1st Quarter
2014-11-02 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee
2014-11-03 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-11-06 (Thu) = Full Moon
2014-11-09 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-11-14 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter + Moon @ Apogee
2014-11-15 (Sat) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-11-21 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-11-22 (Sat) = New Moon
2014-11-28 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-11-29 (Sat) = 1st Quarter
2014-12-06 (Sat) = Full Moon
2014-12-07 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-12-12 (Fri) = Moon @ Apogee
2014-12-13 (Sat) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-12-14 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter
2014-12-18 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-12-21 (Sun) = New Moon + Solstice
2014-12-24 (Wed) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-12-28 (Sun) = 1st Quarter
2015-01-02 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2015-01-04 (Sun) = Full Moon + Earth @ Perihelion

See also HERE

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Sunspot Cycle 24: "None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle"

Conventional wisdom holds that solar activity swings back and forth like a simple pendulum.  At one end of the cycle, there is a quiet time with few sunspots and flares. At the other end, Solar Maximum brings high sunspot numbers and solar storms. It’s a regular rhythm that repeats every 11 years. 

Reality, however, is more complicated. Astronomers have been counting sunspots for centuries, and they have seen that the solar cycle is not perfectly regular. For one thing, the back-and-forth swing in sunspot counts can take anywhere from 10 to 13 years to complete; also, the amplitude of the cycle varies. Some solar maxima are very weak, others very strong (HERE). 

But "none of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle [as the sunspot cycle 24]", said Dr. Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University and other prominent solar scientists at the 2013 Fall Meeting of American Geophysical Union (AGU), held on December 11, 2013 in San Francisco. This solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle conjures up comparisons to the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s (see also HERE & HERE).

John Hampson recently expected the "solar cycle 24′s flat top to end by mid-2014", and one of two possibities playing out: "One, equities peak out within the next 6 months, commodities don’t come again, and we thereafter enter the typical post-solar-peak recession (deflationary). Or, two, equities are peaking now and commodities are breaking upwards out of their large consoliation triangles since 2011 to produce a typical late-cyclical final rally and help tip the weak economy into that recession." (see also HERE).

Credits: John Hampson

Credits: Jan Alvestad
 

Credits: Jan Alvestad
























Monday, December 30, 2013

Solar Tides & Financial Markets | Al Larson

Astrophysics & Chaos [Mar 30, 1999]
"The Solar Energy System does affect markets. The Sun gives off radiation which varies by about 2 percent. These variations are caused by tidal forces that the revolving planets exert on the gases in the Sun.

These tides cause vortexes in the Sun’s surface leading to solar flares, coronal holes, and magnetic storms. The energy changes from these are carried to Earth on an ionized stream of particles called the Solar Wind.

When the Solar Wind reaches Earth it is deflected around the Earth by the Earth’s magnetic field. 

This creates a magnetosphere around the Earth. At the poles ionized particles can penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere. Changes in the solar radiation cause changes in the voltage in the ionosphere.

This in turn causes changes in the electrical currents flowing through people standing on the Earth. These emotional swings account for about 40 percent of price motion."
 
Al Larson a.k.a. Hanns Hannula [extracted from his "Cash in on Chaos Newsletter" @ www.moneytide.com - more HERE & HERE]
 

Hans Hannula (1991): A Lunar Chaos Theory; p. 14