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| Most people think the Sun rests at the center of the solar system, and that the planets orbit it. This is almost correct, but not quite (HERE). |
Many cultures have historically believed that solar and extraterrestrial cycles shape collective behavior. Since the start of continuous sunspot tracking in 1755, research has focused on how these cycles affect climate, weather, and global markets. In the social sphere, some studies even link geomagnetic disturbances caused by the solar cycle to increased violence, revolutions, and the escalation of warfare (HERE).
The Sun’s cyclic activity results from tidal and electromagnetic interactions with the planets, dominated by Jupiter and Saturn. These planets possess 92% of the total planetary mass and 86% of the system’s angular momentum. Their orbital positions significantly influence the solar system's barycenter; when in conjunction, they pull the barycenter well beyond the Sun’s 0.0044 AU radius, whereas in opposition, the barycenter returns to the solar interior. This orbital choreography creates a 178.770-year periodicity in the Sun’s motion around the center of mass. This cycle, consisting of 16 loops, is subject to a "torque cycle"—a periodic variance of ±1.05 years. Defined by nine synodic periods of Jupiter and Saturn (9×19.858=178.722 years), this cycle was famously utilized by Theodor Landscheidt to forecast sunspot activity.
The earliest hypothesis regarding the relationship between solar cycles and economic activity was proposed in 1801 by the German astronomer Wilhelm Herschel, who noted a correlation between sunspot activity and wheat prices. In 1875, British economist William Stanley Jevons expanded on this, suggesting that sunspots influenced business cycle crises. Jevons theorized that solar activity dictated Earth’s weather patterns, which subsequently impacted crop yields and the broader economy. However, a 1934 study by Carlos Garcia-Mata and Felix I. Shaffner re-examined these links within the United States. While they found no evidence to support Jevons’ agricultural hypothesis, they discovered a statistically significant correlation between solar cycles and fluctuations in non-agricultural business activity.
Solar maximums have served as reliable predictors of US recessions, accounting for 8 of the 13 economic downturns between 1935 and 2012. Historically, recessions tend to cluster around these peaks in solar activity; during this period, 8 recessions commenced within a specific window ranging from three months prior to 20 months after a solar maximum. The remaining five downturns, including the Great Recession of 2008–09, can be attributed to distinct geopolitical and systemic shocks. For instance, the brief contraction of 1945 and the recession of 1953–54 resulted from sharp reductions in government spending and military orders following World War II and the Korean War, respectively. Similarly, the 1974–75 recession was precipitated by the global oil crisis, while the 2008–09 financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market and systemic failures in securitization.
Between 1948 and 2012, all six periods of solar maximum coincided with troughs in the US unemployment rate. Notably, these solar peaks appeared to mark a turning point: in each instance, the unemployment trend shifted from a steady decline to a rapid increase, typically reaching its peak two to three years after the sunspot maximum.
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