The closing auction accounts for a striking 7.5% of daily volume in 2018, up from 3.1% in 2010. The growth of indexing and ETFs shifts trading towards the close and distorts closing prices: they often deviate from closing quote midpoints, but the deviations revert by half shortly after the close and fully overnight. As volume migrates towards the close, liquidity at the open deteriorates.
See also:
TPR (Jan 12, 2023) - The ICT Power of 3: Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution (AMD).
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| 15 Minute Bar Chart of Crude Oil with red Simple Moving Average of 60 bars: Price goes where the Other Time Frame Traders have their Stop (Loss) or Limit (Buy or Sell) Orders: Around Highs and Lows of previous 1 Hour and 4 Hour Bars, Sessions, Days, Weeks, Months, Quarters, Years, 3 Years. Look for Peak Formations a.k.a. Reversal Patterns around these Levels (QM Patterns, V-, M-, W Formations). Dotted blue horizontals = Yesterday's High and Low Blue solid horizontals = Last Week's High and Low Red Solid Horizontal = Last Months High and Low. See also HERE |
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| 1938 vs 2023 |
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| Highest Similarity Ratio between 1963 and 2023 - Projected Low of the Year is February 22 (Wed) |
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| 1966 vs 2023 |
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| 1973 vs 2023 |
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| 1982 vs 2023 |
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| 2003 vs 2023 |
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| 2009 vs 2023 |
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| Big Fish Eat Little Fish - Pieter Bruegel the Elder, 1556 |
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| Written by Martin Armstrong on a type-writer while imprisioned in FCI, Fort Dix, New Jersey, 2009. |
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| HERE |
Neutral Signals: There have been 19 neutral signals. The following year was positive 12 times (63%), compared to 73% win rate for “all years.” The overall average and median returns were 6.0% and 7.1%. But among the “up” years, the average and median gains were 14.4% and 9.4%, while the “down” years’ average and median losses were -8.5% and -7.8%. There were several big up years (1995, 1996, 1998, 2003), and two big down years (1973, 1977), so even if there is a neutral signal, there’s still a decent chance the following 12 months will venture far from its January 19 print.
Bearish Signals: There have been 16 bearish signals. Only 6 (38%) of the following years posted a gain while 10 posted losses – and 6 of those 10 posted double digit losses. The overall average and median returns were -3.6% and -6.0%. The “up” years posted average and median gains of 14.6% and 15.5%, while the “down” years posted average and median losses of -14.6% and -12.9%. So despite the low win rate, when the market does well, it has the ability to do very well, as was the case this past year.
[...] When a bullish signal is in play, odds heavily favor solid gains over the following 12 months, but when there’s a bearish signal, odds favor a down year with a relatively big loss. But regardless of the signal, “up” years tend to be very good.
We can trace its roots at least as far back as the beginning of the 20th Century where it emerged in response to the new capabilities of mass media for social control. By mid-century it began to play an increasingly meaningful role in forming and shaping American culture-producing institutions; became pervasive through the last half of the 20th and seems to have peaked in its influence somewhere in the first decade of the 21st Century.
It is now beginning to unravel.
Jordan Hall
oOo
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| "Shifts that render the Church itself obsolete." |
