Quoted from:
Wayne Whaley @ Twitter/X - Feb 24, 2024.
Wayne Whaley @ Twitter/X - Feb 24, 2024.
Showing posts with label Seasonality. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Seasonality. Show all posts
Monday, February 26, 2024
Friday, February 16, 2024
S&P 500 vs NAAIM Exposure Index │ ISABELNET
The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members.
The NAAIM Exposure Index, with a reading of 95.58, indicates a strong bullish sentiment
among active investment managers, reflecting their high confidence in
the future trajectory of the stock market (published Feb 16, 2024).
S&P 500 and NAAIM Index above 97 (published Feb 15, 2024)
Active investment managers are notorious for buying equities at tops and selling them at bottoms, highlighting the difficulties they encounter in accurately timing the market and making lucrative investment choices.
Sizable declines in the last 2 years have worsened the record.
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
S&P 500 Seasonality Weak from Mid-February to Mid-March │ Jeff Hirsch
The big round number 5,000 is proving to be resistant. It will likely take a few attempts to break through. February’s notorious seasonal weakness is bound to relieve the market’s obviously overbought condition. This is not out of the ordinary for February even into March.
This usually mild retreat (around 4% on average) from mid-February to mid-March in election years with a sitting president running for reelection could be a good opportunity to establish new or add to existing positions. Election year seasonal patterns suggest respectable full-year gains.
Friday, January 26, 2024
S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for February 2024 | Jeff Hirsch
Typical February Performance: Weakness After Mid-Month Peak - After a strong opening day, strength has tended to fade until around the seventh trading day. From there until around the 12-trading day all five indexes have historically enjoyed gains. But those gains have not held until the end of February with a peak occurring around mid-month. By the end of February, only NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have remained slightly positive while DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 turn negative.
Sunday, January 21, 2024
2024 Turn Of the Year (TOY) Barometer Very Positive │ Wayne Whaley
The Turn Of the Year (TOY) Barometer is based on the S&P's November 19 to January 19 performance. This is the most predictive period of the year, the single most reliable seasonality barometer of forward stock market returns and the kingpin of seasonal barometers. A return during this 2-month period greater than 3% is a bullish signal, and the market is very likely to do well over the following 12 months. A return of 0-3% is a neutral signal, and results of the current year are expected to be somewhat random. A negative return is a bearish signal for the year, and returns tend to be very poor.
The 2024 TOY is +7.22%. Since 1950 if TOY was > 3%, the next year (January 19 - January 19) had an average gain of +16.5% with two single digit losses (32-2), and February - April was 32-5 for an average 3 month gain of 4.23%.
Tuesday, December 26, 2023
2024 S&P 500 Election Year Seasonal Pattern │ Jeff Hirsch
2024 is an Election Year and the sitting President is running for office again.
In this constellation the S&P 500 typically tends to (1.) trend higher from early January into mid February;
(2.) decline into late March; (3.) rise up for the rest of the year, especially after elections.
Also take note of Larry Williams' re-election pattern.
The S&P 500's average annual return during Election Years is 11.6%. Since 1833 the fourth year in the Decennial Pattern has been up 13 vs 6 times down with an average annual return of 5.22%. Over the past 30 years,
January gains have occurred 17 times (57%), while losses numbered 13 (43%), barely better than the flip of a coin. In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are
tops. In bear markets, New Moons are tops, and Full Moons are bottoms. More often than not,
stocks will rise from around the 7th to around the 14th calendar day of a month, fall
from the 14th to the 20th, and rise from the 20th to the 25th.
In 1967 Yale Hirsch published the first Stock Trader’s Almanac and presented the Four Year Presidential Election Cycle
as an significant and predictive indicator of stock market performance.
The outcomes are relatively steady, regardless of the president’s
political leanings in office at the time, and the year after each
presidential election marks the start of a new four-year stock market
cycle. Considering annual returns of each year in the four year cycle,
the Pre-Election Year (2023) is considered best, and the Election Year second. The most predictive period of the year is November 19th to January 19th. Wayne Whaley coined it a 'Turn of the Year (TOY) Barometer'. If the return of this 2-month period is greater than 3%, a bullish
signal is given, and the market is very likely to do well over the
following 12 months. If the return is 0-3%, the signal is considered neutral; and if the return is negative, the signal is bearish, and returns very poor. Currently the S&P 500 still trades some 6% above the November 19 level.
The 250 year US empire live cycle concluded in 2023. Demise by folly overstretch. Uni-polar global supremacy is over, and Russia, China and Iran stronger than ever. A multi-polar world of worlds now knows how to deal with a paper-tiger gone mad. All star-spangled striped monsters check-mated, defeated and unveiled 24/7 along the many battle fronts on the globe. Project Ukraine lost. Now supervising genocide in Palestine. Yemen's Ansar Allah controls the Bab al-Mandab and launches full front attacks against the hegemon. An emerging Muslim alliance will liberate the Holy Land. Iran may shut down the Gibraltar strait any moment. The Taliban will enter Jerusalem and flatten Tel Aviv. Zionist Saudis and emirs doomed. Revolutionary Shia will root them out. The fever pitch increases. As some discard all this as hysteria and Islamist war propaganda, the dollar hegemony is rapidly melting away under the world island's rising sun. 2024 will be a remarkable 'election year'. W.D. Gann projected 'major panic, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment' into the US of 2024. And US astrologer L. David Linsky sees the home-front ready for more mayhem, upheaval, war and regime change. Plenty of opportunities along the lines and times in the above seasonal roadmap for 2024.
The Kitchin Cycle and the Benner Cycle are bullish for all of 2024 and 2025 (historically the fifth year outperforming all other years in the decennial pattern). In the current decennial cycle Larry Williams identified June 2024 as "the sweet spot with 90% accuracy" to buy stocks until December 2025.
In January 2024 the Sensitive Degrees of the Sun are:
Jan 02 (Tue) = Earth at perihelion = positive = high
Jan 06 (Sat) = negative = low
Jan 19 (Fri) = negative = low
Jan 30 (Tue) = positive = high
Jan 06 (Sat) = negative = low
Jan 19 (Fri) = negative = low
Jan 30 (Tue) = positive = high
The Turning points in the Geocentric Bradley Barometer are (+/-1 CD):
Jan 04 (Thu) = Low
Jan 13 (Sat) = High
Jan 22 (Mon) = Low
Jan 29 (Mon) = High
Jan 13 (Sat) = High
Jan 22 (Mon) = Low
Jan 29 (Mon) = High
The SoLunar Rhythm during January 2024:
Last time the S&P 500 was up 9 consecutive weeks was in 2004 and before that two 9-week win streaks in 1989 and in 1994,
before that a 12-week win streak in 1985. The next years' returns were:
1986 = 14%
1990 = -4.5%
1995 = 34%
1986 = 14%
1990 = -4.5%
1995 = 34%
2005 = 3%
Thursday, December 21, 2023
Seasonality Map for Currencies, Stocks, Bonds & Commodities
(Percentages updated for 2023).
Reference:
Wednesday, December 20, 2023
2024 in the Four Year Election Cycle │ Dimitri Speck
Dow Jones, 4-year cycle, calculated over 121 years.
2024 is an election year. The election cycle suggests a weak first half of the year, and a good second half. The election year gets off to a weak start. The left quarter of the chart shows the typical performance of the Dow Jones in election years. As indicated by the red arrow, these typically posted losses in the first half of the year. After that, things look much better, as indicated by the green arrow.
Quoted from:
Seasonax (Dec 13, 2013) - 4-Year Election Cycle: How will 2024 go?
Monday, December 18, 2023
2024 US Stock Market Outlook │ Larry Williams
Larry Williams' 2024 projection for US Stocks:
First week of January to last week of February - UP
Last week of February to last week of April - DOWN
Last week of April to last week of Juli - SIDEWAYS-TO-UP
First day to last day of August - UP
First week to third week of September - DOWN
Third week to fourth week of September new high of the year - UP
Fourth week of September to first week of November - SIDEWAYS-TO-DOWN
First week of November to first week of December - UP
First week to third week of December - DOWN
Third week to last trading day of December printing the yearly high - UP
The December 2023 Low is a key price level in Q1 of 2024.
Larry Williams identified June 2024 in the current decennial pattern
as "the sweet spot with 90% accuracy" to buy and hold until December 2025.
Reference:
S&P 500 │ 2023 Still An Inside Year
S&P500 (weekly candles)
The 2023 yearly target remains above the January 2022 high at 4,817. Price currently above Level 2 and above the July 2023 third quarter's high. 2023 is still an Inside Year, inside of the 2022 price range. The 2023 fourth quarter is an Outside Quarter. Eight trading days left before the year closes for another 120 to 140 points up into the Level 3 price target at 4,857 or even 5,000. From there a retracement down to around 4,587 - 4,440. The seasonal chart points to the 2023 high around Dec 26 (Tue). See also: The Yearly Market Maker Breakout Template.
S&P500 (4 hour bars)
Week Dec 18-25 sideways-to-up; Year-End-Rally; early January 2024 high around 5,050.
Wednesday, December 13, 2023
Tuesday, December 12, 2023
Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE in 2024 | Jack Gillen
| Date | Sun's Longitude Position | Effect on US Stock Indexes |
| 2023 12 08 (Fri) | = SUN @ 16 SAG = 256 degrees | negative = low |
| 2023 12 12 (Tue) | = SUN @ 20 SAG = 260 degrees | negative |
| 2023 12 16 (Sat) | = SUN @ 24 SAG = 264 degrees | positive = high |
| 2023 12 28 (Thu) | = SUN @ 6 CAP = 276 degrees | positive |
| 2024 01 02 (Tue) | = SUN @ 11 CAP = 281 degrees | positive |
| 2024 01 06 (Sat) | = SUN @ 16 CAP = 286 degrees | negative |
| 2024 01 19 (Fri) | = SUN @ 29 CAP = 299 degrees | negative |
| 2024 01 30 (Tue) | = SUN @ 10 AQU = 310 degrees | positive |
| 2024 02 03 (Sat) | = SUN @ 14 AQU = 314 degrees | positive |
| 2024 02 06 (Tue) | = SUN @ 17 AQU = 317 degrees | negative |
| 2024 02 18 (Sun) | = SUN @ 29 AQU = 329 degrees | negative |
| 2024 02 23 (Fri) | = SUN @ 4 PIS = 334 degrees | negative |
| 2024 02 24 (Sat) | = SUN @ 5 PIS = 335 degrees | negative |
| 2024 03 03 (Sun) | = SUN @ 13 PIS = 343 degrees | positive |
| 2024 03 11 (Mon) | = SUN @ 21 PIS = 351 degrees | positive |
| 2024 03 24 (Sun) | = SUN @ 4 ARI = 4 degrees | positive |
| 2024 03 31 (Sun) | = SUN @ 11 ARI = 11 degrees | positive |
| 2024 04 07 (Sun) | = SUN @ 18 ARI = 18 degrees | negative |
| 2024 04 13 (Sat) | = SUN @ 24 ARI = 24 degrees | negative |
| 2024 04 26 (Fri) | = SUN @ 6 TAU = 36 degrees | negative |
| 2024 05 01 (Wed) | = SUN @ 12 TAU = 42 degrees | neutral |
| 2024 05 08 (Wed) | = SUN @ 18 TAU = 48 degrees | negative |
| 2024 05 19 (Sun) | = SUN @ 19 TAU = 59 degrees | neutral |
| 2024 05 25 (Sat) | = SUN @ 5 GEM = 65 degrees | negative |
| 2024 06 06 (Thu) | = SUN @ 16 GEM = 76 degrees | neutral |
| 2024 06 07 (Fri) | = SUN @ 17 GEM = 77 degrees | negative |
| 2024 06 08 (Sat) | = SUN @ 18 GEM = 78 degrees | neutral |
| 2024 06 29 (Sat) | = SUN @ 8 CAN = 98 degrees | positive |
| 2024 07 04 (Thu) | = SUN @ 13 CAN = 103 degrees | negative |
| 2024 07 07 (Sun) | = SUN @ 16 CAN = 106 degrees | positive |
| 2024 07 10 (Wed) | = SUN @ 18 CAN = 108 degrees | negative |
| 2024 07 24 (Wed) | = SUN @ 2 LEO = 122 degrees | negative |
| 2024 07 29 (Mon) | = SUN @ 6 LEO = 126 degrees | positive |
| 2024 08 09 (Fri) | = SUN @ 17 LEO = 137 degrees | negative |
| 2024 08 10 (Sat) | = SUN @ 18 LEO = 138 degrees | positive |
| 2024 09 02 (Mon) | = SUN @ 10 VIR = 160 degrees | negative |
| 2024 09 04 (Wed) | = SUN @ 12 VIR = 162 degrees | positive |
| 2024 09 05 (Thu) | = SUN @ 13 VIR = 163 degrees | negative |
| 2024 09 20 (Fri) | = SUN @ 28 VIR = 178 degrees | positive |
| 2024 09 24 (Tue) | = SUN @ 2 LIB = 182 degrees | negative |
| 2024 10 07 (Mon) | = SUN @ 14 LIB = 194 degrees | negative |
| 2024 10 14 (Mon) | = SUN @ 21 LIB = 201 degrees | positive |
| 2024 10 22 (Tue) | = SUN @ 29 LIB = 209 degrees | positive |
| 2024 10 25 (Fri) | = SUN @ 2 SCO = 212 degrees | negative |
| 2024 10 27 (Sun) | = SUN @ 4 SCO = 214 degrees | negative |
| 2024 11 03 (Sun) | = SUN @ 11 SCO = 221 degrees | positive |
| 2024 11 21 (Thu) | = SUN @ 29 SCO = 239 degrees | positive |
| 2024 11 25 (Mon) | = SUN @ 3 SAG = 243 degrees | positive |
| 2024 12 08 (Sun) | = SUN @ 16 SAG = 256 degrees | negative |
| 2024 12 12 (Thu) | = SUN @ 20 SAG = 260 degrees | negative |
| 2024 12 15 (Sun) | = SUN @ 24 SAG = 264 degrees | positive |
| 2024 12 27 (Fri) | = SUN @ 6 CAP = 276 degrees | positive |
| 2025 01 01 (Wed) | = SUN @ 11 CAP = 281 degrees | positive |
| 2025 01 06 (Mon) | = SUN @ 16 CAP = 286 degrees | negative |
| 2025 01 19 (Sun) | = SUN @ 29 CAP = 299 degrees | negative |
| 2025 01 30 (Thu) | = SUN @ 10 AQU = 310 degrees | positive |
| 2025 02 03 (Mon) | = SUN @ 14 AQU = 314 degrees | positive |
» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you
trends that are more or less active for each year,
as the sun degrees are
generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year.
So this
is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «
Quoted from:
Solar Ephemeris.
Monday, December 11, 2023
The Geocentric Bradley Barometer │ Turning Points 2024
2023 Nov 13 (Mon) = High
2023 Dec 17 (Sun) = Low
2023 Dec 22 (Fri) = High
2024 Jan 04 (Thu) = Low
2024 Jan 13 (Sat) = High
2024 Jan 22 (Mon) = Low
2024 Jan 29 (Mon) = High
2024 Feb 09 (Fri) = Low
2024 Feb 13 (Tue) = High
2024 Feb 25 (Sun) = Low
2024 May 26 (Sun) = High
2024 Jun 11 (Tue) = Low
2024 Jun 29 (Sat) = High
2024 Aug 19 (Mon) = Low
2024 Aug 29 (Thu) = High
2024 Sep 07 (Sat) = Low
2024 Sep 14 (Sat) = High
2024 Sep 19 (Thu) = Low
2024 Sep 27 (Fri) = High
2024 Oct 01 (Tue) = Low
2024 Oct 05 (Sat) = High
2024 Oct 27 (Sun) = Low
2024 Nov 02 (Sat) = High
2024 Nov 13 (Wed) = Low
2024 Nov 25 (Mon) = High
2024 Dec 08 (Sun) = Low
2024 Dec 18 (Wed) = High
2024 Dec 26 (Thu) = Low
The very well‐known financial astrology indicator known as the Bradley Barometer [or Bradley Siderograph] was created by Donald Bradley in 1947. The theory was that what is happening up in the sky affects human behavior on earth, so Bradley created a barometer that was a combination of transits. By assigning positive values to positive transits and negative values to negative transits he created a weighted net sum oscillator graph. The Bradley also includes the declination of planets. The higher in the sky that a planet appears above the horizon, the more positive the value. The lower in the sky that a planet appears below the horizon, the more negative the value. This Bradley Barometer graph correlated well to the markets even though there was no known physical correlation. The Bradley does very well in forecasting the headwinds or tailwinds of long‐term market moves that can occur over many months […] In recent years, it has shown quite a number of failures. This may be due to a variety of factors. If the Bradley Barometer measures the natural organic flow of the market, then there are certainly external artificial influences that can diminish its effectiveness. Some of these factors may include high‐frequency trading and/or government interference through central bank stimulus. Artificial inflation will cause a market to rise regardless of transits. The market will still oscillate, but with an upward bias. Another important angle to consider about the Bradley is that it designed to be taken in the context of what is happening in the market. The Bradley Barometer is an oscillator. We all know that the market does not oscillate back and forth all the time.
Over the past century, the market has trended higher. However, in between, there are cyclical bull markets and bear markets and sometimes there are consolidation periods. Everything forecast must be taken in its relative context to current market conditions. In a bull market, the down periods in the Bradley may simply mark sideways consolidation periods. It is useful to think of negative planetary transits in the face of a bull market as being nothing more than headwinds that are just a pause in the uptrend. It also follows that in a bull market the periods of the Bradley may mark the largest bull runs. In bear markets, the positive runs in the Bradley model serve as just pauses in the selling. The negative drops in the Bradley mark periods of intense selling in the market. In neutral markets, the Bradley tends to mirror market movement like an oscillator. nevertheless, the Bradley is a very popular model to this day, and many financial astrologers still use it as a backbone to get an overall picture of what the market is doing or what it made do in the future.
Over the past century, the market has trended higher. However, in between, there are cyclical bull markets and bear markets and sometimes there are consolidation periods. Everything forecast must be taken in its relative context to current market conditions. In a bull market, the down periods in the Bradley may simply mark sideways consolidation periods. It is useful to think of negative planetary transits in the face of a bull market as being nothing more than headwinds that are just a pause in the uptrend. It also follows that in a bull market the periods of the Bradley may mark the largest bull runs. In bear markets, the positive runs in the Bradley model serve as just pauses in the selling. The negative drops in the Bradley mark periods of intense selling in the market. In neutral markets, the Bradley tends to mirror market movement like an oscillator. nevertheless, the Bradley is a very popular model to this day, and many financial astrologers still use it as a backbone to get an overall picture of what the market is doing or what it made do in the future.
ooo0ooo
Also consider:
New Moons typically mark beginnings of cycles, and Full Moons mark
completions.
In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are
tops.
In bear markets, New Moons are tops, and Full Moons are bottoms.
More often than not,
stocks will rise from around the 7th to around the 14th calendar day of a month,
fall
from the 14th to the 20th, and rise from the 20th to the 25th.
Major Red News Releases (NFP, CPI, PPI, PMI, FOMC etc.) and Options Expiration Dates (especially Quad and Triple Witching)
may delay or cancel typical cyclical market behavior and astro signals.
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