Tuesday, February 13, 2024

S&P 500 Seasonality Weak from Mid-February to Mid-March │ Jeff Hirsch

The big round number 5,000 is proving to be resistant. It will likely take a few attempts to break through. February’s notorious seasonal weakness is bound to relieve the market’s obviously overbought condition. This is not out of the ordinary for February even into March.

 
This usually mild retreat (around 4% on average) from mid-February to mid-March in election years with a sitting president running for reelection could be a good opportunity to establish new or add to existing positions. Election year seasonal patterns suggest respectable full-year gains.