S&P 500 on Track for Strongest May-to-July Gains in Years | Paul Ciana

Bank of America's Paul Ciana analyzes 96 years of S&P 500 data to highlight the index's seasonal historical performance from May to July, and reveals average gains of 2.5% since 1928 and 5% since 2015.

 S&P 500 Average Trend: 3-Month Look Ahead (April 30 to July 31).

The S&P 500 closed at approximately 5,958 on May 16, 2025, up from 5,584 on May 1. This represents a 7.16% increase from May 1 to May 16. Forecasts predict that May will average 6,017, ending at 6,249, marking an 11.5% monthly rise. June and July also show positive projections, with June at 6,600 and July at 6,566. Historically, the period from May to July sees a 2.5% gain since 1928, or 5% since 2015. This year’s forecast suggests a 17.6% rise, well above the historical averages.

The current 7.16% increase from May 1 to May 16 already surpasses the historical three-month average, indicating that the seasonal trend is not only holding but also exceeding expectations. While the bullish momentum in the first week of May is clear, the second week is typically bearish. However, the market has continued to rise, possibly due to strong investor sentiment suggesting further gains through July, potentially reaching a 17.6% increase by July 31—far above the 2.5% and 5% historical averages. Capital Economics expects the S&P 500 to hit 7,000 by year-end, while Goldman Sachs predicts a 10% return for 2025, both supporting the idea of strong seasonal performance.

Reference:
Neil Sethi (April 30, 2025) –  BoA Paul Ciana’s S&P 500 Seasonal Trend from May to July.

Biggest 6-Week VIX% Declines and Forward S&P 500 Total Returns AND
Biggest 27 Trading Day Rallies (1950-2025).

See also:

Charlie Bilello (May 16, 2025)  - One of the Greatest Comebacks in Market History. (video)

The Economy Forecast Agency (May 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 FORECAST 2025, 2026, 2027-2029.
Ryan Detrick (May 16, 2025) - S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls.

Paul Ciana (April 4, 2025) - Second Week of April Up 72% of the Time. 

S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls | Ryan Detrick

On average, it is 18.7% higher a year later, 20 out of 20 times since 1976:

Performance of S&P 500 after more than 58% of components reach new 20-day highs.

When more than 58% of S&P 500 components hit a 20-day high, the index has historically risen by an average of 18.7% over the next 12 months, with a 100% success rate across 20 instances since 1976. Gains are less pronounced but still positive in the short term, averaging 1.7% (1 month), 5.6% (3 months), and 9.7% (6 months), with positive returns 80-85% of the time. The latest May 14, 2025, event (68% of components at a 20-day high) aligns with this historical pattern, suggesting a high probability of gains by May 14, 2026.

 

Historical May performance in post-election years (1950-2021) shows a typical pattern of strong gains in the first 6 trading days (average >1%), followed by a dip from days 6-9, and a rally through month-end. This contrasts with 2025 trends for major indices such as the NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow, and Russell 2000. By mid-May, all indices had broken above their 200-day moving averages.

 

Can we get a pullback? 24% of NASDAQ 100 stocks are overbought with an RSI above 70, a threshold indicating potential price corrections; historically, since 2020, this condition has led to a 1-week pullback 55% of the time, with an average decline of 0.71%.

 

The VIX has dropped for 6 consecutive weeks, a rare streak historically linked to potential stock market pullbacks, as shown in the data from 1992 to 2024, where the S&P 500 averaged a -0.63% return one week later in similar scenarios. The S&P 500 tends to face short-term corrections, with historical data indicating negative returns in the following 1 to 4 days 63-78% of the time, suggesting a volatility spike may be imminent.

 

 

It wasn't long ago people were talking about the Death Cross in the SPX. Back then we pointed out that the last time the death cross occurred (2022), markets reversed aggressively and managed to overshoot the 200 day by around 3.5%. A similar overshoot now would take us to around 6k.

 

 

The dominant 82-day cycle suggests a peak in the ES around June 10, followed by a decline into early August. 

 

See also:

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.

Cosmic Cluster Days | May 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. The 'noise channel' serves as a signal filter, with the upper and lower limits of the channel being empirically defined. That said, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows also within the 'noise channel,' may correlate with or coincide with short-term market trends and reversals.

 

Cosmic Cluster Days  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel    — — —  Solunar Rhythm

 ○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon | ▴  = Lunar Declination max North / ▾ = max South |  立春 =  Solar Terms

 

Cosmic Cluster Days in May 2025:

 Apr 30 (Wed) | May 25 (Sun) | Jun 24 (Tue)

 

Venus at Greatest Elongation on Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 4:00 EDT.

 

For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].

 

Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].  

Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE]. 

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points, click [HERE]. 

Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].

Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].

The SoLunar Rhythm in May 2025.

 

Selected geocentric events in May 2025 (EST/EDT).

The S&P 500 Has Just Triggered a Death Cross | Guilherme Tavares

On April 14th, the S&P 500 triggered a 'death cross.' This occurs when its 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, historically signaling potential declines, as seen in March 2022, though not always predictive of major downturns.

» That's it folks. Place your bets. «

Guilherme Tavares, April 17, 2025.

However, the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio (P/E Ratio CAPE), exceeding two standard deviations above its long-term trend, suggests overvaluation, aligning with past market peaks in November 1929, October 2000, and March 2022. Previous instances of this combined signal preceded significant longer term market corrections.

The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio, also known as the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio, is calculated by dividing 

the current price of the S&P 500 by the 10-year moving average of its inflation-adjusted earnings.

The March 2022 and the April 2025 death crosses in the S&P 500 (daily bars).

S&P 500 Forward Returns when there is a 'Death Cross' (1953-2022).

» Should we care? Yes, we should. The forward-looking data isn't the best going out 6 months (red box). «

Grant Hawkridge, April 7, 2025.

The above table lists death cross events in the S&P 500 from 1953 to 2022, and provides forward returns over various time horizons (6 days, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year) after each event:

• Short-term returns (6 days) are volatile, with 11 of 18 instances showing negative returns. The average loss is small, suggesting the immediate impact of a death cross is inconsistent. For example, the +8.63% gain in 1962 contrasts with the -11.51% loss in 1978, indicating no clear directional bias in the very short term.
• One-month returns lean bearish, with 13 of 18 instances negative. The worst case (-12.75% in 1929) aligns with the Great Depression’s onset, while the best case (+8.66% in 1978) shows occasional rebounds. The negative average suggests a death cross often precedes short-term weakness, though not always severe.
• Three-month returns are more consistently negative, with 14 of 18 instances showing losses. The -22.13% drop in 1929 reflects extreme market stress, while the +14.91% gain in 1962 is an outlier. The stronger negative average (-3.16%) indicates that death crosses often signal broader market declines over a few months.
• The six-month period shows the most pronounced bearish tendency, with 14 of 18 instances negative. The -35.97% loss in 1929 is the worst, tied to the Great Crash, while the +28.21% gain in 2020 reflects the rapid recovery post-COVID crash. The -4.81% average loss, emphasized in the table, suggests a death cross is a stronger bearish signal over this horizon, though exceptions exist.
• One-year returns are mixed, with 10 of 18 instances positive. The +64.41% gain in 2020 is the highest, driven by post-COVID stimulus, while the -44.95% loss in 1929 is the lowest. The positive average (+1.97%) suggests that, over a year, the market often recovers or stabilizes after a death cross, reducing its long-term predictive power.

NDX's powerful 3.5-year cycle suggests the bigger trend should

be down into mid 2026. Branimir Vojcic, April 17, 2025.

3 dominant cycles on NDX daily chart say up into late May. 

Branimir Vojcic, April 17, 2025.

Composite of the S&P 1965, 1998, and 2018 analogues (pink line), Namzes, April 18, 2025.

S&P 1998 vs 2025 Analogue (correlation = 96.6%; Lag = 9,695 days = 26.54 years),

Namzes, April 18, 2025.

See also:

Guilherme Tavares (April 14, 2025) - What Follows a 9%+ S&P 500 Day Below the 200-DMA.

Namzes (April 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation.

Moore Research (April 10, 2025) - DJIA 1926 vs 2025 Analogue = 97% Correlation.

Yuriy Matso (April 8, 2025)  - S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

Subu Trade (April 18, 2025)  - Markets Report: is the worst over for stocks? We're in Phase 3 of the bottoming process.

China is Ready for Any Type of Conflict and Economic Decoupling | Victor Gao

China will fight to the end, as the government has declared, and it has now imposed a retaliatory tariff of up to 125 percent on all US exports to China. If things are not handled properly, this could mean a complete halt to China-US trade—both ways. No goods will be exported from the United States to China, and everything made in China will cease to be sent to the United States. This is decoupling. 

» In essence, China is now declaring that it is prepared to fight to the end

—whether in a trade war, tariff war, technology war, or even a real war. «

Victor Zhikai Gao, April 16, 2025.

If the United States truly welcomes this, China will reciprocate, leading to the breakup of China-US relations. Whether this situation evolves from peace to war remains to be seen, but we must all be prepared. In essence, China is now declaring that it is prepared to fight to the end—whether in a trade war, tariff war, technology war, or even a real war. So, the ball is in Trump's court. He decides, and China will reciprocate. China will never succumb to US pressure.

This is the moment of truth. China wants to defend free trade; the United States wants to destroy it. The rest of the world is watching, and a choice will be made by the end of the day. However, China will not accept being held at gunpoint, forced to swallow impossible demands. China is a country that values dignity and decency above economic gains or losses. So, if you want to hold a gun to China’s head, China will hold a gun to yours. If you want to strike China on the cheek, China will strike back. That is the decision and determination of the Chinese nation.

Reference:

Al Arabiya News (April 16, 2025) - China Says It's Ready For War With America. (video)

See also:

Gerry Nolan (April 13, 2025) - Rare Earth Retaliation: China Chokes America’s War Machine.

Gerry Nolan (April 12, 2025) - The Last Tariff: China Ended the US’s Trade War With a Whisper.

Ray Dalio (April 7, 2025) - Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs.
Ganesh Valiachi and Soundarya Murugan (March 29, 2025) - The End of the Dollar Era? China’s Digital Yuan Is Reshaping Global Trade.

 Lu QiYuan (March 15, 2025) - The US Will Now Cannibalize Its Own Allies and Vassals to Survive.

» Americans, you don't need a tariff. You need a revolution. «

Anonymous Chinese TikToker, April 13, 2025.

They rob you blind, and you thank them for it. That's a tragedy. That's a scam. That's why I'm saying this right now: Americans, you don't need a tariff. You need a revolution. For decades, your government and oligarchs shipped your jobs to China—not for diplomacy, not for peace, but to exploit cheap labor. And in the process, they hollowed out your middle class, crushed your working class, and told you to be proud while they sold your future for profit. 

Yes, China made money. But we used it to build roads and lift millions out of poverty. From healthcare to raising living standards, we reinvested in our people. My family benefited from it too. What did your oligarchs do? They bought yachts, private jets, and mansions with golf course driveways. They manipulated markets, dodged taxes, and poured billions into endless wars. And you? You got stagnant wages, crippling healthcare costs, cheap dopamine, debt, and poverty wrapped in a flag—made in China—while they picked your pocket. 

As part of the growing 'Trade War' TikTok trend, a Chinese factory has gone viral after 

revealing that the true cost of producing a $38,000 Hermès Birkin bag is just $1,400 

— and now, high tariffs are ringing the death knell for Western luxury brands.

For 40 years, both China and the United States benefited from trade and manufacturing, but only one of us used that wealth to build. This isn’t China’s fault. This is yours. You let this happen. You let the oligarchs feed you lies—while they made you fat, poor, and addicted. Now they blame China for the mess they created. You don’t need another tariff. You need to wake up. You need to take your country back. I think you need a revolution.

S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation | Namzes

S&P 500 (daily chart, 89.6% correlation as of April 13, 2025. Lag = 21,832 days = 59.77 years).

Namzes, April 16, 2025.

S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 [July 8, 1965 vs April 16, 2025 (Wed)  = 21,832 days = 59.77 years].

See also:

Moore Research (April 10, 2025) - Dow Jones Industrial Avg. 1926 vs 2025 = 97% Correlation.

Yuriy Matso (April 8, 2025) - S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

 David Hickson (April 7, 2025) - Hurst Time-Price Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 & NASDAQ.
Martin Armstrong (April 7, 2025) - DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2.

Paul Ciana (April 4, 2025) - Second Week of April Up 72% of the Time. 

On April 16, 2025, the DeMark 9-13 Sequential count is at 9-12, hinting at a 

potential trend exhaustion in S&P 500 futures and a reversal on April 17.

Chris Ciovacco, April 16, 2025.

The VIX cycle from > 50 to < 30 is on track to trigger today. A bear killer.

Jason Goepfert, April 15, 2025.

NATO Is Now A Zombie Alliance Without Legitimacy | Admiral Cem Gürdeniz

We are witnessing the second great breakdown of a global security order since World War II. The first came after 1990, when the Soviet Union voluntarily dissolved, and Washington rapidly expanded its influence across Eastern Europe. But today, 80 years after the end of that war, the US is beginning its own retreat – shifting its strategic center of gravity from Europe to the Asia-Pacific.

» Israel’s genocide in Gaza, supported openly by Washington, 

shattered any remaining legitimacy. «

[...] Its strategy is no longer about global control but about retrenchment and preparing for great power rivalry in the Pacific, particularly with China. This isn’t a tactical adjustment – it’s a systemic collapse. NATO’s defeat in Ukraine was not just a battlefield loss – it was the end of an illusion.

The post-1990 order was built on the illusion of unipolarity. The US declared liberal capitalist democracy as the universal model. In this system, the West controlled finance, China was tasked with manufacturing, and resource-rich states were expected to supply energy and raw materials. But this model encountered fatal contradictions. US military power failed in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan. Instead of stability, it brought destruction. Russia reasserted itself militarily after 2008. China rose economically and technologically, challenging Western hegemony.

» Turkey’s Blue Homeland Doctrine, [...] is ultimately a testimony to the 

clout of anti-Western ultra-nationalism in the Turkish military and state. «

And together, they built a Eurasian counterbalance. Most crucially, the Global South saw through the facade. Israel’s genocide in Gaza, supported openly by Washington, shattered any remaining legitimacy. The Western system now lies exposed – economically overleveraged, diplomatically isolated, and militarily vulnerable.

Trump is not the architect of this collapse – he is the product of it. […] He knows NATO is a burden, not an asset. His challenge is not ideological – it’s existential. He wants to keep the American empire alive by cutting it down to a sustainable size. NATO is now a zombie alliance. It exists more as a myth than a functional military bloc. Its expansion has been reckless. Its operations – from the Balkans to Libya to Ukraine – have destabilized entire regions, and its credibility is collapsing.

» The way forward is to secure our geopolitical destiny in Eurasia – on our terms. «

[…] BRICS is growing. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is expanding. Trade is moving away from the dollar. Regional powers like Iran, India, Brazil, and Türkiye are asserting themselves. This is not a return to Cold War blocs. It’s a rebalancing – a world where no single center dominates.

[...][Türkiye] must abandon the illusion that foreign direct investment and EU integration will save us. That model has failed. It brought debt, privatization, and dependency. Our economy must be built on production, not speculation. This means reindustrialization, food and energy sovereignty, and regional trade in local currencies. We must protect strategic sectors from foreign ownership. Our Central Bank must be independent not just from the government, but from foreign influence. […] The way forward is not to chase illusions in Brussels. It is to return to Kemalist principles, integrate with the rising Asian century, and secure our geopolitical destiny in Eurasia – on our terms, not theirs.

Quoted from:
Ceyda Karan (April 11, 2025) - ‘Blue Homeland’ architect Admiral Cem Gürdeniz warns: 

NATO has failed, and the EU wants Türkiye on its knees.

See also:

Cem Gürdeniz (2020) - Turkey in the Century of the Sea and Asia.
Ray Dalio (April 7, 2025) - Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs.

Digital Yuan Reshaping Global Trade And Power | G. Valiachi & S. Murugan

The global financial order is witnessing a seismic shift, and at its epicenter is China’s digital yuan. The recent launch of the Digital RMB Cross-Border Settlement System (CIPS) by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is more than just a technological breakthrough—it is a geopolitical maneuver with far-reaching implications for global trade, financial sovereignty, and the dominance of the US dollar.

The Digital Yuan’s rise is not merely a financial evolution

—it is a recalibration of global power structures.

 

Will the rest of the world, particularly the West, adapt to this new reality, or will they be left navigating a financial ecosystem where China dictates the rules? One thing is certain: the era of uncontested dollar dominance is coming to an end. The world must prepare for a future where digital currencies, led by China's digital yuan, reshape global finance in ways we are only beginning to comprehend.

A Disruptive Technological Edge: For decades, international transactions have relied on the SWIFT system, where dollar-dominated settlements often take 3-5 days to clear, involving multiple intermediary banks and high transaction costs. China's digital RMB, powered by blockchain technology, has completely upended this model. With settlement times reduced to just seven seconds and handling fees slashed by 98 per cent, the efficiency gains alone are compelling enough for emerging markets and strategic trade partners to make the switch. The first successful real-time settlement between Hong Kong and Abu Dhabi using digital RMB has already demonstrated its disruptive potential. By bypassing SWIFT and eliminating reliance on correspondent banks, China has effectively engineered an alternative financial network—one that reduces the influence of US-dominated monetary systems and reshapes the global trade paradigm.

» Settlement times reduced to just seven seconds and handling fees slashed by 98 per cent. «

Digital RMB vs SWIFT.

Redefining Financial Sovereignty: The ramifications of this development extend beyond mere efficiency. For years, the US has wielded its control over the SWIFT system as an instrument of economic coercion, particularly through sanctions. The digital RMB offers an alternative, allowing countries under Western financial pressure—such as Iran and Russia—to conduct transactions without US oversight. This is already materializing: six ASEAN nations, including Malaysia and Singapore, have incorporated the RMB into their foreign exchange reserves, and Thailand has completed its first oil trade settled in digital yuan.

The Global De-dollarization Trend: The cross-border RMB settlement volume in ASEAN exceeded 5.8 trillion yuan in 2024, a staggering 120 per cent increase from 2021. As China strengthens its digital payment network, the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency faces an existential challenge.

» Over 87 per cent of the world’s countries are now digitally integrated with the RMB settlement system. «

China’s Digital Silk Road expands its influence through digital infrastructure projects.

Strategic Integration: The digital yuan’s role extends beyond financial transactions; it is a foundational pillar of China’s broader economic expansion strategy. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), already a monumental undertaking spanning over 140 countries, now has a digital counterpart in the “Digital Silk Road.” By integrating the digital RMB with Beidou satellite navigation and quantum communication, China is creating a seamless trade infrastructure that enhances efficiency by 400 per cent. This convergence of digital currency and physical trade infrastructure fundamentally alters the balance of economic power. European car manufacturers are already settling Arctic route freight costs in digital RMB, and Middle Eastern energy traders have reduced settlement costs by 75 per cent. If this momentum continues, the dollar-based financial order could soon become a relic of the past.

The Future of Global Finance: With over 87 per cent of the world’s countries now digitally integrated with the RMB settlement system, China has successfully built a financial architecture that challenges traditional banking norms. The total volume of cross-border digital RMB transactions has already surpassed $1.2 trillion, and this figure is set to grow exponentially as more nations join the digital currency bridge test. Meanwhile, the US and Europe remain embroiled in regulatory debates over digital currency frameworks. The Federal Reserve’s hesitancy on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and the European Central Bank’s slow progress on the digital euro underscore the West’s lack of preparedness for this revolution. While Washington deliberates, Beijing executes.

Quoted from:
Ganesh Valiachi and Soundarya Murugan (March 29, 2025) - The End of the Dollar Era? 

China’s Digital Yuan Is Reshaping Global Trade And Causing Financial Power Shift.

» China is no longer playing by the old rules. It’s a war for the future of global finance. «

Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, April 14, 2025.

What Follows a 9%+ S&P 500 Day Below the 200-DMA | Guilherme Tavares

Guilherme Tavares highlights rare historical instances when the S&P 500 rose over 9% in a day after falling below its 200-day moving average (DMA), with data from 1929 to 2021 showing only five such events, each followed by an average 20-session decline of 4.33% and significant drawdowns up to 18%. Hence, the sharp rally on April 9, 2025, may be followed by a correction as well.

 

See also:

Subu Trade (April 12, 2025) - Markets Report: Is the Bottom in? Here’s what history says. Volatile vs. V-shaped bottom.

Martin Armstrong (April 7, 2025) - DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2.
David Hickson (April 7, 2025) - Hurst Time-Price Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 & NASDAQ. 

Rare Earth Retaliation: China Chokes America’s War Machine | Gerry Nolan

China just halted exports of key rare earths to the US, slapping export controls on seven categories of critical metals and magnets used in everything from EVs and smartphones to fighter jets, missiles, and drones, delivering a surgical strike to the spinal cord of America’s supply chain. Welcome to the new trade war: geoeconomic strangulation, without firing a shot.

China halts export of key rare earth minerals and develops a ‘regulatory system’ 

to completely block certain minerals from reaching specific US companies.

 

[...] You want to slap 145% tariffs on our goods? Fine. But good luck assembling a single Javelin, F-35, or iPhone without our dysprosium, terbium, and neodymium. China controls over 90% of global rare earth production. Washington just remembered that the hard way. This isn’t just a tit-for-tat move. It’s strategic economic warfare, targeting the soft underbelly of US dominance: the illusion that it can wage hybrid war without being vulnerable itself.

» Dumber than a sack of bricks. «

And now? The US is scrambling: Talking about deep-sea mining, rushing to build stockpiles, and begging Australia and Canada to step up. Canada, eh? Too little, too late. You spent three decades offshoring everything, and now your empire can’t build a toaster, let alone a missile guidance system, without Beijing’s blessing. Ok, maybe you can build a toaster, to be fair. [...] Every chip, every drone, every smart weapon in the Pentagon’s closet runs on components China can choke off in 48 hours. Trump called it “Liberation Day.” 

 

Quoted from:

Gerry Nolan (April 13, 2025) - Rare Earth Retaliation: China Chokes America’s War Machine.