The Quarterly Theory | Jevaunie Daye

In March 2023 Jevaunie Daye (traderdaye), a young ICT trader from the US, took the trading world by storm with his Quarterly Theory (not to be confused with the Quarters Theory), a concept he derived from Michael Huddleston's ICT mentorships. Within weeks Daye's Youtube Channel with just one video in which he briefly outlined his theory exploded to 16,000 subscribers: "Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles."  

 

 

 

 Daye (March 14, 2023) - Ever wondered ... ?

The idea is to split year, month, week, day and session into quarters at specific times which lead to ICT's Power of 3 (Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution) cycles within those quarters. They present in one of these two forms:

Q1. (A)ccumulation - Consolidation.
Q2. (M)anipulation - Judas Swing.
Q3. (D)istribution - Low Resistance Liquidity Run.
Q4. (X) - Continuation or Reversal of previous quarter.

(OR)

Q1. (X) - Continuation or Reversal of previous quarter.
Q2. (A)ccumulation - Consolidation.
Q3. (M)anipulation - Judas Swing.
Q4. (D)istribution - Low Resistance Liquidity Run.

 

Daye (April 14, 2023) - Introduction to Quarterly Theory.

 

Blending the Quarterly Theory and basic ICT concepts leads to enhanced precision. Understanding Quarterly Theory allows to be flexible. It fits in with any style of trading, as it is universal to all time-frames. The Quarterly Theory removes ambiguity, as it gives specific time-based reference points to look for when entering trades. Before being able to apply this theory to trading, one must first understand that time is fractal:

Yearly Quarters = 4 quarters of three months each.
Monthly Quarters = 4 quarters of one week each.
Weekly Quarters = 4 quarters of one day each (Monday - Thursday). Friday has its own specific function.
Daily Quarters = 4 quarters of 6 hours each = 4 trading sessions of a trading day.
Sessions Quarters =  4 quarters of 90 minutes each.
90 Minute Quarters =  4 quarters of 22.5 minutes each.

 

Yearly Cycle: Analogously to financial quarters, the year is divided in four sections of three months each:

 

Q1 - January, February, March.
Q2 - April, May, June (True Open, April Open).
Q3 - July, August, September.
Q4 - October, November, December.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) — Monthly Cycle.

Monthly Cycle: Considering that we have four weeks in a month, we start the cycle on the first month’s Monday (regardless of the calendar Day):

 

Q1 - Week 1: first Monday of the month.
Q2 - Week 2: second Monday of the month (True Open, Daily Candle Open Price).
Q3 - Week 3: third Monday of the month.
Q4 - Week 4: fourth Monday of the month.

 

 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour candles) — Weekly Cycle.

 

Weekly Cycle: Daye determined that although the trading week is composed by 5 trading days, we should ignore Friday, and the small portion of Sunday’s price action:

 

Q1 - Monday.
Q2 - Tuesday (True Open, Daily Candle Open Price).
Q3 - Wednesday.
Q4 - Thursday.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (1 hour candles) — Daily Cycle.

Daily Cycle: The Day can be broken down into 6 hour quarters. These times roughly define the sessions of the trading day, reinforcing the theory’s validity:

 

Q1 - 18:00 - 00:00 Asia.
Q2 - 00:00 - 06:00 London (True Open).
Q3 - 06:00 - 12:00 NY AM.
Q4 - 12:00 - 18:00 NY PM.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (15 minute candles) — 6 Hour Cycle.

6 Hour Quarters or 90 Minute Cycle / Sessions divided into four sections of 90 minutes each  (EST/EDT):

 

Asian Session

Q1 - 18:00 - 19:30
Q2 - 19:30 - 21:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 21:00 - 22:30
Q4 - 22:30 - 00:00

 London Session

Q1 - 00:00 - 01:30
Q2 - 01:30 - 03:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 03:00 - 04:30
Q4 - 04:30 - 06:00

NY AM Session 

Q1 - 06:00 - 07:30
Q2 - 07:30 - 09:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 09:00 - 10:30
Q4 - 10:30 - 12:00

NY PM Session 

Q1 - 12:00 - 13:30
Q2 - 13:30 - 15:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 15:00 - 16:30
Q4 - 16:30 - 18:00

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (5 minute candles) — 90 Minute Cycle.

Micro Cycles: Dividing the 90 Minute Cycle yields 22.5 Minute Quarters, also known as Micro Sessions or Micro Quarters:

 

Asian Session

Q1/1 18:00:00 - 18:22:30
Q2     18:22:30 - 18:45:00
Q3     18:45:00 - 19:07:30
Q4     19:07:30 - 19:30:00
Q2/1 19:30:00 - 19:52:30 (True Session Open)
Q2/2 19:52:30 - 20:15:00
Q2/3 20:15:00 - 20:37:30
Q2/4 20:37:30 - 21:00:00
Q3/1 21:00:00 - 21:23:30
etc.    21:23:30 - 21:45:00

London Session

00:00:00 - 00:22:30  (True Daily Open)
00:22:30 - 00:45:00
00:45:00 - 01:07:30
01:07:30 - 01:30:00
01:30:00 - 01:52:30  (True Session Open)
01:52:30 - 02:15:00
02:15:00 - 02:37:30
02:37:30 - 03:00:00
03:00:00 - 03:22:30
03:22:30 - 03:45:00
03:45:00 - 04:07:30
04:07:30 - 04:30:00
04:30:00 - 04:52:30
04:52:30 - 05:15:00
05:15:00 - 05:37:30
05:37:30 - 06:00:00

New York AM Session

06:00:00 - 06:22:30
06:22:30 - 06:45:00
06:45:00 - 07:07:30
07:07:30 - 07:30:00
07:30:00 - 07:52:30  (True Session Open)
07:52:30 - 08:15:00
08:15:00 - 08:37:30
08:37:30 - 09:00:00
09:00:00 - 09:22:30
09:22:30 - 09:45:00
09:45:00 - 10:07:30
10:07:30 - 10:30:00
10:30:00 - 10:52:30
10:52:30 - 11:15:00
11:15:00 - 11:37:30
11:37:30 - 12:00:00

New York PM Session

12:00:00 - 12:22:30
12:22:30 - 12:45:00
12:45:00 - 13:07:30
13:07:30 - 13:30:00
13:30:00 - 13:52:30  (True Session Open)
13:52:30 - 14:15:00
14:15:00 - 14:37:30
14:37:30 - 15:00:00
15:00:00 - 15:22:30
15:22:30 - 15:45:00
15:45:00 - 15:37:30
15:37:30 - 16:00:00
16:00:00 - 16:22:30
16:22:30 - 16:45:00
16:45:00 - 17:07:30
17:07:30 - 18:00:00

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (30 second candles) — 22.5 Minute Cycle.

The Monthly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one week each. Start counting the quarters from the first full week, meaning if the first week relating to the traditional month is a partial week, it is omitted and viewed as distortion. The first full week of the month is the first quarter, the second week is the second quarter, the third week is the third quarter and the fourth week is the fourth quarter.

 

Daye (Feb 19, 2024) - Quarterly Theory - The Secret ICT Trading Strategy.

The Weekly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one day each. Monday is the first quarter, Tuesday is the second quarter, Wednesday is the third quarter and Thursday is the fourth quarter. Friday is not included into the weekly cycle due to the fact that it has its own specific function.

The Daily Cycle is comprised of four quarters, six hours each, which perfectly aligns with the four trading sessions of a trading day. The first quarter is the Asian session, the second quarter is the London session, the third quarter is the New York session and the fourth quarter is the afternoon session. 

 

Each Session is comprised of four quarters, 90 minutes each. During the Asian session, the 90 minute cycles are as follows: 18:00 to 19.30 is the first quarter, 19.30 to 21:00 is the second quarter, 21:00 to 22:30 is the third quarter and 22:30 to 24:00 midnight is the fourth quarter. During the London session, the first quarter is 00.00 / midnight to 1:30. The second quarter is 1:30 to 3:00. The third quarter is 3:00 to 4:30, and the fourth quarter is 4:30 to 6:00. The New York AM Session starts with the first quarter at 6:00 and lasts to 7:30. The second quarter is 7:30 to 9:00. The third quarter is 9:00 to 10:30. And the fourth quarter is 10:30 to 12:00. The first quarter of the New York PM Session starts  at 12:00 and lasts to 13:30. The second quarter is 13:30 to 15:00. The third quarter is 15:00 to 16:30. And the fourth quarter is 16:30 to 18:00.

Now that we understand that time is fractal, we can begin to look into the functions of some of the quarters. Price is delivered by an algorithm. So there must be some initial input which is used to make decisions throughout each cycle. This is the function of Q1. Q1 dictates the quarters which follow, meaning Q1 is used as a barometer for forecasting market conditions in the subsequent quarters of each cycle. If the first quarter is overextended, expect the second quarter to consolidate, and if the first quarter is in a tight range, expect the second quarter to expand. 

 

 

True Opens are the main components of quarterly theory. There are specific openings of price which serve as a time-based filter for gauging manipulation swings or stop-hunts. True opens are the beginning of Q2 of every cycle.  True Opens are defined by these times:

• Yearly True Open = 1st Monday of April.
• Monthly True Open = 2nd Monday of the month.
• Weekly True Open = 18:00 every Monday.
• Daily True Open = 12:00 (Midnight).
• NY AM Session True Open = 7:30
• NY AM Session True Open = 13:30
• Asian Session True Open = 19:30
• London Session True Open = 1:30
  

 

Buy below True Open. Sell above True Open.

 

 

It is a simple concept to understand. If you are bullish within a specific cycle, you want to buy below its true open, and if you are bearish within a specific cycle, you want to sell above its true open. This will increase your accuracy tremendously, as key levels usually rest above or below true opens. Every cycle has its own true open. The true year open is the opening price of the first Monday of April. The true month open is the opening price of the second Monday of the month. The true week open is Monday at 18:00. The true day open is 12 o'clock midnight. The true open of the age on session is 19:30. The true open of the London session is 1:30. The true open of the New York session is 7:30. And the true open of the afternoon session is 13:30. The image to the right depicts how true opens function during bullish market environments.

There are two sets of instructions that the algorithm follows:  

AMD-X and X-AMD

 

A = Accumulation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation = Judas Swing
D = Distribution
X = Reversal or Continuation

After a tight Q1 range the Q2 Manipulation Phase begins. ICT calls this the Judas Swing. According to his algorithmic theory, the purpose of this fake move is to get traders offside. After Q2 the real move takes place: the Q3 distribution phase and is usually the easiest to trade as the previous quarter has already established a trend of the cycle. The fourth phase is X which can either continue to establish range of the cycle or reverse. In regards to this example, the fourth quarter is reversal. As you can see, price reverses at Higher Time Frame Premium-Discount Arrays (PDAs) or key levels. 

 

 The AMD-Principle is represented in every bar of every time-frame (monthly, weekly, daily, 4 Hour, etc.) 

with a price value at which it starts trading (opening price), the highest price value (high), the lowest (low), 

and  a value of the time it ends trading (close).

Liquidity is induced when price breaches old highs and old lows while trading into key levels. If you usually trade with the one minute chart, you need a 15 minute PDA. If you usually trade with the five minute chart, you need a one hour PDA. If you usually trade with the 15 minute chart, you need a four hour PDA. If you usually trade with the one hour chart, you need a daily PDA. And if you usually trade with the four hour chart, you need a weekly PDA. 

 

Regarding X-AMD, the first quarter is the continuation or reversal of the previous Q. Of the previous cycle, using what we understand from the function of Q1, Q2 should then accumulate, resulting in high range price action. Q3 would then be the manipulation phase. However, the rules for the true opens are static. They don't change. The opening price of Q2 will always be its true open. So if the profile that you're looking at is X-AMD, even though accumulation takes place during Q2, you will use the opening price of Q2, which is its true open to gauge, the Judah swing, which will present itself more times or not in Q3. The last phase will be the distribution phase, which will be the easiest phase to trade in regards to X-AMD. 

 

Dividing a 90 Minute Cycle into 22.5 Minute Quarters (Micro Sessions).

 

Reference:

Daye - YouTube Channel.
Daye on Twitter/X @traderdaye

Daye's Full course / Quarterly Theory.

Daye (April 14, 2023) - Introduction to Quarterly Theory.

 ICT Concepts (2023) - Quarterly Theory and True Open. (video)

 

Kirsten Boersma (September 10, 2023):

Quarterly Theory - the Hack of the Algorithm?

» Is this proof of the algorithm existing or not? I do think so;-) 

And it's mind blowing how this fractal quarterly theory happens over and over again. « 

Cosmic Cluster Days | January - February 2024

Heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets coincide with Change in Trend (CIT) in financial markets. 

Cosmic Cluster CIT-Signal Days = Composite Line of all angles outside the Cosmic Noise Channel.

Cosmic Cluster CIT-Signal Days (CCDs) have no consistent polarity/directional bias.

Swing highs and lows  of the Composite Line  inside of the channel may also coincide with market reversals.

○ = White Circles = Full Moons | ● = Black Circles = New Moons.

 The calculation methodology of the Composite Line  is akin to the one of the Berg-Timer.

 

Recent and upcoming Cosmic Cluster CIT-Signal Days are: 

Dec 06 (Wed)
Jan 08 (Mon)
Jan 27 (Sat)
Jan 31 (Wed)
Feb 04 (Sun)
Feb 17 (Sat)
Feb 22 (Thu)
Feb 25 (Sun)
Feb 29 (Thu)
Mar 02 (Sat) - Mar 03 (Sun) - Mar 04 (Mon)

 

Solunar Rhythm in January 2024. 

 

In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 

In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms. 

 

(Rob Handler, 2024)

 

 More often than not, stocks will 

 rise from (+/-) the 7th to (+/-) the 14th calendar day of a month.,

fall from (+/-) the 14th to (+/-) the 20th,

and rise from (+/-) the 20th to (+/-) the 25th.

 

 The 4th, 6th, 10th, 14th and 18th are usually positive.
The 7th and 20th are usually negative.
Not enough data for the 30th.

 

(Rob Handler, 2024)

(Allen Reminick, Jan 12, 2024)

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ January 2024

 

 

» The lunar node, quite abstractly speaking, is the point of intersection of the solar and the lunar orbits. There are, therefore, two nodes in opposite positions in the heavens: an ascending node or lunar north node, and a descending node - the lunar south node. The solar and the lunar orbits are not, in effect, in the same but in different planes, enclosing a certain angle. Thus there arise the two opposite points of intersection. The peculiarity of these two points of intersection is that they do not stand still but slowly move. The plane of the lunar path rotates in relation to the plane of the solar path; so the two nodes move a round. They move around the Zodiac in a contrary direction to the rotation of the planets, i.e., from Aries backward through Pisces, Aquarius, etc. A complete revolution of a lunar node takes place in 18 years and 7 months; after this time, therefore, the node — the ascending node, for example — is once again in the same position in the Zodiac as it was before. The ascending node is, thereby, the mathematical point that (at any given time and again after 18 years and 7 months [= 6,798.383 CD] the lunar orbit rises above the solar orbit, while at the opposite point the descending node sinks below it. «

Willi O. Sucher, 1937.

 

See also:

TPR (Dec 21, 2023) - S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle: Projection into April 2024.

 

Scholz Will Go So Everything Remains The Same │ The Duran

Alex Christoforou & Alexander Mercouris:

Is Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany 

- the governor of the most important US-vassal state in Europe - on his way out? 

 

This is what Springer's Bild, Europe’s biggest daily paper and a major CIA media in Germany, is suddenly peddling with. Bild creates a narrative around Scholz 'retiring' soon. He would be replaced by Boris Pistorius, the current Federal Minister of Defence, another seasoned senior Atlanticist, Anti-German, Warmonger, Russophobe and Zionist apparatchik of the US-occupation regime. Pistorius 'may' ban the AfD, Germany's most popular opposition party, Bild informs. To 'save democracy'. No worries. No elections. Steinmeier, Habeck, Baerbock, Faeser will remain. No regime change. Germany remains course. End of announcement.

"Majority wants Pistorius instead of Scholz" claims Bild,

while farmers block roads and fuel deliveries in largest nationwide protests ever.

Weimar 2.0.

 

Reference:

The Duran (Jan 07, 2024) - Is Olaf Scholz on his way out as German Chancellor? (video)

S&P 500 Weekly Reversal │ Robert Miner

December 29, 2023 = weekly high.
After a 9-week bull streak, the first week of 2024 closed lower = strong weekly momentum reversal.

January 05, 2024:
Expect some sideways-to-up move into around January 11-12 (Thu-Fri) before the continuation of a weekly bear trend.

Reference:
Robert Miner (Jan 07, 2024) - S&P 500 Weekly Momentum Reversal. 

S&P 500 Stats │ Wayne Whaley

Wayne Whaley (Jan 06, 2024) - The S&P broke a 9 week win streak last week. Normally any pullback in a strong advance will scan out as a buy signal. I posted 8 week advances instead of 9, so as to have +10 data points. The TOY Barometer aficionados will argue that the first week of the year is not just any week.

 

 

IsabelNet (Jan 06, 2024) - Historically, 9-week win streaks tend to be bullish for US stocks, with a median 12.4% increase in value seen a year later since 1950, giving investors good reason to expect a positive year in 2024.

 

 

IsabelNet (Jan 05, 2024) - From January to May of an election year, the performance of the S&P 500 index is often lackluster. However, as the year progresses, the market typically improves and delivers robust performance. 

 

IsabelNet (Jan 05, 2024) - Historically, the average annual return of the S&P 500 index tends to experience a substantial decrease during periods when stocks encounter challenges in the month of January.

Sacred Defense │ Imam Ali Khamenei

In the Name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful. All praise is due to God, Lord of the Worlds, and peace and greetings be upon our Master, Muhammad, and his pure, immaculate, chosen Progeny, particularly the Remnant of God on earth.

 

 

» All praise is due to God, Lord of the Worlds. «

Imam Sayyid Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 2023.

If our succeeding generations learn about the important, meaningful aspects of the Sacred Defense and realize how the Iranian nation was able to reach the heights of victory and to stand up there with power and pride, they will learn great lessons from it and they will achieve great things.

Up until now, we have not been able to make known the details of this great, colorful painting. In every piece of it there is so much beauty, and so much meaning and depth that one is amazed. Each piece of it is like this, and this information must be made known to people.

Quoted from:
Imam Ali Khamenei (Sep 26, 2023) - Iran's Sacred Defense helped to develop the culture of Resistance.

 

Imam Ali Khamenei, January 04, 2024,

commenting on Israel's genocide in Gaza - the day after the terrorist attack in Kerman, Iran, 

killing at least 91 and injuring 284 people. CIA, Mossad and ISIS are actors of the same Zionist project.

The Rest Against The West │ Samuel P. Huntington

In the 21st century the central axis of world events will be conflict between Western and non-Western civilizations, conflict between the West and the Rest. The Rest has three options:

 

The Rest against the West: The geopolitics of distributed heartlands.

• Surrender and submission. 
• Isolation and protection of sovereignty and values. The costs are very high. Only few pursue this option.
• Protection and defense of values and sovereign institutions through constant development of economic-military power and through cooperation and alliance with the West's other enemies.

Reference:

Samuel P. Huntington (1993) - The Clash of Civilizations.

 

 Projection from Bharat.

Benjamin Netanyahu, 1990.
 

January 03, 2024.

The man who ruined all the US’s illegitimate plots in West Asia:
Qasem Soleimani, Major General, Commander of 41st Tharallah Division of Kerman Quds Force (1957-2020).
» The world is witnessing an asymmetrical confrontation between two opposing sides, which has displayed the peak of brutality as well as desperation on one side and innocence along with heroic resistance on the other side. With a broader look at the years of confrontation and conflict between Global Arrogance and its vassals in West Asia on the one hand, and the Resistance Front and popular forces on the other hand, there remains no doubt that the astonishing work by Hamas and the residents of Gaza in Palestine are the domino effect of successive defeats of the hegemons and global colonialism in the region. «

See also:

Imran N. Hosein (2023) - The Alliance of Islam and Eastern Orthodox Christianity.

Alexander Dugin (2023) - Fighting the Civilisation of Dajjal - The Antichrist.

MFA of PRC (2023) - US Hegemony and Its Perils.

Alexander Dugin (2022) - The Civilization-State.

S&P 500 Cycles, Analogues & Projections │ Allen Reminick

 S&P 500 Index - Correction targets.

January 05 (Fri) or January 09 (Tue) = low for a swing up into late January?

See also S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle.

 24-Year Cycle

 71-Year Cycle

 106-Week Cycle and 7.5-Month Cycle

Jan 04 (Thu) or Jan 09 (Tue) Low

 7.5-Month Cycle

 60-Year Cycle

 24-Year Cycle

 58-Month Cycle

 3-Year Cycle

 188-Week Cycle

 

Reference:

Allen Reminick (Jan 05, 2024) - No David Hunter-esque Melt-UP to 6000, Though the S&P is Bullish. (video)

Allen Reminick (Jan 05, 2024) - Expect an UP S&P 500 in 2024. (video)

State of the S&P 500 │ Tom

The S&P 500 stands as the final major index to surpass its all-time highs. The remaining horizontal line linked to price history is at 4818—the intraday all-time high recorded two years ago on January 4, 2022. Currently, the S&P 500 maintains robust health. In the chart’s lower panel is my preferred gauge of market breadth, Net New Highs. This metric reports the number of stocks reaching new highs versus those making new lows across the NYSE and Nasdaq markets. This measure of breadth has remains consistently positive during the best market rallies.

Given the prevailing positive sentiment across markets, stemming from the widespread advance since November, I speculate the likelihood of a healthy correction as the next probable move. To assess this, I will closely monitor market breadth, utilizing it as a key factor in evaluating the probabilities of whether the anticipated correction is likely to be healthy or potentially more severe.

 

 

A mere two weeks ago, the S&P 500 ETF SPY experienced its largest inflow ever. This encapsulates the current state of the S&P 500—a market teetering on the brink of all-time highs, with both retail and professional market participants joining with unwavering enthusiasm— the metaphorical “everyone is in the pool” moment.

 

 The leading observation for my initial 2024 thoughts that the market is ripe for a healthy correction is the condition of market sentiment, and equity exposure. For over a month now the CNN Fear & Greed Index has reported a market operating in greed, Extreme Greed for the last two weeks.

 

 

Source: CNN Fear & Greed Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index measures US equity exposure among active fund managers reported the highest reading for the year, the highest since November 2021. (The Nasdaq peaked in November 2021, and the S&P 500 just over a month later in January 2022). 

 

 

Source: NAAIM Exposure Index

The following chart of the S&P 500 marks the relative peaks in sentiment and equity exposure using the CNN Fear & Greed Index (marked by red arrows) and the NAAIM Exposure Index (marked by blue arrows). It is a clear observation that the combination of excessive greed and elevated equity exposure have preceded all meaningful declines since the 2022 peak. I do not think it will be different this time.

To end last week’s note I summarized this chart as presenting a compelling argument for selling into greed— I still feel this way. Momentum has propelled the market through the year, however this is recently being subtly being interrupted. In the lower panel of the chart is the Percentage Price Oscillator. This oscillator offers a quick insight into trend momentum. The red dots within the panel signify negative crossover events, a slowdown in momentum.

 

In my analysis, momentum interruption occurs when the initial negative crossover is not succeeded by a corrective price move. Instead, price continues to climb with successive negative crossovers, creating a pattern of interruptions. Based on my observations, the decline that follows such an interruption cycle tends to erase most of the earlier advance.

 

The previous instances of momentum interruptions in August 2021 and July 2022 exhibit an intriguing resemblance to the current scenario, with the index rallying approximately 5% as momentum decelerated. In both cases, the subsequent decline erased most of the earlier advance. A comparable outcome today would potentially bring the index down to 4550. In my analysis the immediate term has the signals flashing caution towards a 5% decline. If this scenario unfolds, the speculated decline will initially be favored as being one of health that sets the index up for an additional leg higher. I speculate the correction will have the S&P 500 trade between 4500 - 4600 in the near term. Should this unfold, it will initially provide a healthy technical appearance where price revisits the breakout area.

 

 

Reference:

Tom (Dec 31, 2023) - State of the S&P 500.

2024 Economic Forecast │ James Kim

The interest rate changes in the United States trigger international capital movements, which are reflected in the Dow Jones Index, an indicator of such movements. To predict future economic conditions, understanding the trends in U.S. interest rates and the Dow Jones Index can provide insights into both the U.S. and global economies. To comprehend the economic situation from 2023 to 2024, it's observable that the patterns of interest rates and Dow Jones Index during 2006-2007 are similar. The period when the U.S. continuously raises interest rates and then freezes them, leading up to a rate cut, is known as the 'Goldilocks' period, which is typically a phase of a major bull market in stocks.

 

 To aid your understanding, I have specified concrete dates. 

Think of these as reference points, focusing on the patterns and the dates surrounding them.

 

 When interest rates are frozen consecutively three times (Point (d)), the market gains confidence that there will be no further rate hikes. Similar to 2006, when three consecutive rate freezes led to breaking historical highs, the same pattern was observed on December 13, 2023, breaking the historical high of January 4, 2022 (Point (f) ).

 

The peak of the U.S. economy is predicted to be on May 8, 2024, with the U.S. stock market artificially creating a peak for about six months (until the first rate cut). The global economy, with the decline of the U.S. dollar, moves towards a strong bull market in individual countries. The magic of exchange rates creates opportunities for profit through currency differences and stock appreciation, leading to a surge in global stock markets. Global and U.S. stock markets are expected to start declining simultaneously around November 15, 2024 (just before the U.S. rate cut). At this point, the U.S. economy would have been declining for about six months from its peak, while the global economy, excluding the U.S., remains stable.

I believe there are signs of a weakening U.S. economy, which will lead to the start of interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. Eventually, about a year later on December 12, 2025, both the U.S. and the world will face an economic crisis. The peak of the U.S. economy is expected in May, while the global economy is predicted to peak in the second quarter of 2025 [...] I hope you too can achieve favorable outcomes during this time.

(1. - 4.) On August 2, 2023, through my posts, I predicted the breaking of the historical high of the Dow Jones Index and the freezing of U.S. interest rates (the Goldilocks period). I forecasted the peak of the stock market, the timing of the economic crisis, and all phases up to the great depression in 2032. By looking at my past Twitter posts, one can see that the results are following the same patterns exactly as predicted. My posts will be helpful to understand these patterns: 

(1.) Prediction of the 13th and 14th Cycles of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This post outlines my predictions for the 13th and 14th cycles of the U.S. stock market and its potential trajectory. 

(2.) Forecast for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle (Great Depression Period) of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): In this tweet, I discuss the ongoing 15th cycle and its connection to the anticipated great depression period.
(3.) Prediction for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This tweet further elaborates on my predictions for the 14th and current 15th cycle of the U.S. stock market.
(4.) Estimation of the Dow Jones Lowest Point, Interest Rate Freeze (Goldilocks Period), and Major Bull Market (August 3, 2023): This post from August 3, 2023, predicts the lowest point of the Dow Jones, the freezing of interest rates (Goldilocks period), and the onset of a major bull market.

Quoted from:

James Kim @ X (Jan 2, 2024) - 2024 Economic Forecast.

A Way Of Seeing Infinity │ Benoît Mandelbrot

 

 » Why is geometry often described as 'cold' and 'dry'? One reason lies in its inability to describe the shape of a cloud, a mountain, a coastline, or a tree. Clouds are not spheres, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not circles, and bark is not smooth, nor does lightning travel in a straight line [...] Nature exhibits not simply a higher degree but an altogether different level of complexity [...] Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end. «

 

Benoît Mandelbrot,  Fractals: Form, Chance and Dimension, 1977.

 

Infinite Self-Similarity-Zoom.