The S&P 500 stands as the final major index to surpass its all-time highs. The remaining horizontal line linked to price history is at 4818—the intraday all-time high recorded two years ago on January 4, 2022. Currently, the S&P 500 maintains robust health. In the chart’s lower panel is my preferred gauge of market breadth, Net New Highs. This metric reports the number of stocks reaching new highs versus those making new lows across the NYSE and Nasdaq markets. This measure of breadth has remains consistently positive during the best market rallies.
Given the prevailing positive sentiment across markets, stemming from the widespread advance since November, I speculate the likelihood of a healthy correction as the next probable move. To assess this, I will closely monitor market breadth, utilizing it as a key factor in evaluating the probabilities of whether the anticipated correction is likely to be healthy or potentially more severe.
Given the prevailing positive sentiment across markets, stemming from the widespread advance since November, I speculate the likelihood of a healthy correction as the next probable move. To assess this, I will closely monitor market breadth, utilizing it as a key factor in evaluating the probabilities of whether the anticipated correction is likely to be healthy or potentially more severe.
A mere two
weeks ago, the S&P 500 ETF SPY experienced its largest inflow ever.
This encapsulates the current state of the S&P 500—a market
teetering on the brink of all-time highs, with both retail and
professional market participants joining with unwavering enthusiasm— the
metaphorical “everyone is in the pool” moment.
The leading observation for my initial 2024 thoughts that the market is ripe for a healthy correction is the condition of market sentiment, and equity exposure. For over a month now the CNN Fear & Greed Index has reported a market operating in greed, Extreme Greed for the last two weeks.
The following chart of the S&P 500 marks the relative peaks in sentiment and equity exposure using the CNN Fear & Greed Index (marked by red arrows) and the NAAIM Exposure Index (marked by blue arrows). It is a clear observation that the combination of excessive greed and elevated equity exposure have preceded all meaningful declines since the 2022 peak. I do not think it will be different this time.
To end last week’s note I summarized this chart as presenting a compelling argument for selling into greed— I still feel this way. Momentum
has propelled the market through the year, however this is recently
being subtly being interrupted. In the lower panel of the chart is the
Percentage Price Oscillator. This oscillator offers a quick insight into
trend momentum. The red dots within the panel signify negative
crossover events, a slowdown in momentum.
In
my analysis, momentum interruption occurs when the initial negative
crossover is not succeeded by a corrective price move. Instead, price
continues to climb with successive negative crossovers, creating a
pattern of interruptions. Based on my observations, the decline that follows such an interruption cycle tends to erase most of the earlier advance.
The previous instances of momentum interruptions in August 2021 and July 2022 exhibit an intriguing resemblance to the current scenario, with the index rallying approximately 5% as momentum decelerated. In both cases, the subsequent decline erased most of the earlier advance. A comparable outcome today would potentially bring the index down to 4550. In my analysis the immediate term has the signals flashing caution towards a 5% decline. If this scenario unfolds, the speculated decline will initially be favored as being one of health that sets the index up for an additional leg higher. I speculate the correction will have the S&P 500 trade between 4500 - 4600 in the near term. Should this unfold, it will initially provide a healthy technical appearance where price revisits the breakout area.
