How the US destroyed the German Economy | Cyrus Janssen

"To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal." This famous quote from Henry Kissinger is now unfolding in real time: Germany, Europe's biggest economy and its industrial powerhouse by far, is now collapsing. Last year, Germany posted the worst performance across all major global economies, with its economy being the only one to actually shrink by 0.3%. And just last month, Germany's economic minister, Robert Habeck, said that the German economy is performing "dramatically bad". And yet the Western media has hidden the true cause.

 

» NATO's purpose is: Keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down. «
Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay, NATO's first Secretary General, 1952.

» Our goal in Europe is: Keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down. «
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, 2008. 

» Fuck the European Union ! «
Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, 2014 - 2024. 

 

Even worse, this bleak situation shows no signs of improving. There were high hopes that 2024 would turn things around and be a comeback year for Germany. And until recently, the German government projected a growth rate of 1.3%. However, shockingly, they've now been forced to slash this forecast to a mere 0.2%. The scariest part is that most economists and business leaders agree. This isn't some temporary recession, but a deeper structural problem of the German economic model. If you think this is an exaggeration, understand that by now, an astonishing two in three German companies have left Germany, or at least partially relocated abroad, with most citing the sky high energy prices, inflation, over-regulation, and endless political debates as their reasons for leaving. What or who is causing this catastrophic collapse of Germany's long-standing economic and industrial prowess? 

 

   » Halting Russian supplies can well create a systemic crisis that would be devastating

for the German economy and, indirectly, for the entire European Union. «

 RAND Corporation, 2022.

Germany was played by the United States and continues to score own goals in tackling this economic crisis. Germany's dire situation is being caused by three main reasons: Number one, the country's sky high energy prices. Number two, its reduced exports to Russia and China. And number three, its increases in military expenditure. 

 

   » China called the Nord Stream pipeline blast an act of international terrorism,
and an act of war against Germany and Russia. «

Hans-Benjamin Braun, 2023.

[...] As much as the US is to blame here, astonishingly, almost all of Germany's political elite, mainstream media, and general population, have eagerly obeyed America's wishes to demonize and decouple from Russia and China. This is absolutely bizarre and frankly foolish, because numerous experts and German business leaders have repeatedly warned that decoupling would destroy the German economy. The sad truth is that much of Germany's political and media establishment has a long history of blindly taking US-formed policy narratives at face value - even when they themselves are the ones getting screwed. The best recent example of this is the bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline, whose sole purpose was to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany and the rest of Western Europe.
 

 » Germany's establishment has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for severing its energy ties with Russia.

You seriously can't make this stuff up. «

Cyrus Janssen - March 12, 2024.

[...] After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Germany and the EU introduced sanctions against Russia, while Russia responded by sharply decreasing its delivery of natural gas to Europe. This skyrocketed Germany's energy prices and severely damaged its economy. This is because before the invasion, Germany imported a whopping 55% of their gas from Russia. And it's precisely this cheap Russian gas that has been so important in enabling Germany to become an economic and industrial powerhouse. Of course, sanctioning your main energy supplier was never the smartest choice to begin with. The fallout cannot be understated. In the same year the war started, the market price for natural gas has increased more than 10 fold. 

 Biden vows US will 'bring an end ' to Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine, 

and German vassal chancellor Scholz simply agrees - February 7, 2022.

But it's not just ordinary Germans who suffered. An astonishing 70% of Germany's mechanical engineering, industrial goods, and automotive sectors have relocated abroad, and it's not hard to see why Germany's economic and industrial power has collapsed so rapidly. [...] The US role in Germany's energy crisis is much bigger than just ripping off the Germans. Not only did the US openly wish to wipe out Germany's energy relationship with Russia, but the US shares significant blame for causing this war in Ukraine, which led to Germany's crisis in the first place. [...] However, once again, Germany shares the blame here: Germany's establishment is in virtual lockstep with the United States and has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for severing its energy ties with Russia. You seriously can't make this stuff up. 

 

Quoted from:
Cyrus Janssen ( March 12, 2024) - How America Destroyed the German Economy. (video)

 » Ukraine's victory: whatever it takes, as long as it takes. «

German vassal chancellor Scholz - May 7, 2024.

See also:

Martin Armstrong (May 1, 2024) - Will Russia Push the Button?

Martin Armstrong (May 1, 2024) - It Is Unlikely That We Can Avoid A Third World War.
Timofey Bordachev (February 19, 2024) - Western Europe could become the new Ukraine.
Hans-Benjamin Braun (August 6, 2023) - Nord Stream Pipeline Blast By US-Nuke.

RAND Corporation (January 25, 2022) - Crush Europe and Strengthen the US.

The US is in Decline and Desperate Need to Modernize | President of Mexico

After a report from the US State Department about the allegedly “poor” human rights situation in Mexico, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) launched a counterattack. He warned Washington that there was no government in the world that had the right to interfere in the politics of another nation. Only the USA has repeatedly claimed such special rights in the past. AMLO pronounced: "Mexico will not tolerate such interference. Mexico will never be a protectorate or a colony of another country. Mexico is a free, independent and sovereign country."

  » That's just how they are. They are stagnant and ossified in decadence.

They are in decline and desperately need to modernize. 

The US must change their arrogant interventionist foreign policy.  «

 Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President of Mexico - April 24, 2024.

AMLO condemned US funding of so-called NGOs - such as terrorist groups and drug cartels - that attack Mexico's legitimate government and its courts. It is above all the USA that should not lean too far out of the window when it comes to human rights: "Imagine if we would announce that the USA are violating human rights, political rights and freedoms, that the Statue of Liberty would be an empty symbol just because they have a presidential candidate who is constantly being dragged into court. How they want to talk about human rights when they are pouring billions of dollars into wars that result in the deaths of innocent people around the world? Why don't they release Assange? Where is the freedom? "

"United States governments are meddling in the internal politics of other countries for at least two centuries. And it is not only giving opinions of good conduct as if they were the judge of the world. They are also intervening militarily in countries with governments not subject to the interests of the United States. That's the story. They used to appoint and remove presidents as they pleased. That is the history of the people of Latin America. Well, in our history they invaded us twice. The first time they forced the Mexican government to sign the Guadalupe Hidalgo Treaty, that is: we lost half of our territory and nine of the fifty US federal states belonged to Mexico. We have not forgotten US Invasions. We have insisted a lot and we will continue to do so: The US must change their arrogant interventionist foreign policy."

 

» Cancel NAFTA/USMCA. Ditch the dollar. Re-issue the Mexican gold peso. Join the BRICS. « 

For now these topics are official diplomatic taboos still. But chained to a sinking ship, the US' 

biggest trading partner becomes increasingly fed up with the inflation-dollar fraud, the drug-war-

pandemic-genocide economy and the insane migration industry of its northern neighbor.

"How come they allocate so much money to war? Why they do not allocate funds to care for their young people who are suffering from drug use; unfortunately, 100,000 young people die every year from fentanyl use. But that's just how they are. And we shouldn't be surprised. That is how it has been historically. That indicates that they are stagnant, and ossified in decadence. They are in decline and desperately need to modernize."

Quoted from: 

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (April 24, 2024) - Mexico will never be a colony - We have not forgotten US Invasions. (video)

It is unlikely that we can avoid a Third World War | Martin Armstrong

Piero Messina: Fukuyama advocated the end of history. Huntington spoke of a clash of civilizations. Is it possible to imagine a third way?

Martin Armstrong: Our greatest threat is centralized control; that is what doomed communism. I agree with Huntington that the clash of civilizations will be based upon cultures and religion mainly because of centralized attempt to impose a unified culture.

 

 » It is unlikely that we can avoid world war. 

Governments need war because their debts are no longer sustainable. 

They will use the war as the excuse for defaults – as was the case for WWII. 

They will create Bretton Woods II with the IMF digital currency as the reserve.

I believe we have a third world war that will begin piecemeal with the Middle East, Iran vs Israel, 

Europe vs Russia, North Korea vs Japan and South Korea, China vs Taiwan. 

But they will eventually merge together. «

At the end of the 1980s, the reference geopolitical model was the unipolar world, based on Western primacy. What cultural, military, and economic pillars is the Washington Consensus based on? Is it true freedom?

The military in economic pillars that dominate Washington today have nothing to do with freedom. They have to do with people who were unwilling to accept the collapse of communism. Whereby the enemy was transformed by communism to ethnic racism.

With the birth of the BRICS, is it possible to talk about a multipolar option? What are the limits that you see in this geopolitical dimension?

The birth of the BRICS was caused by these people we call the Neocons who engaged in ethnic racism and targeted Russia by removing them from the world economy under SWIFT. This woke up many in the world, realizing that the dollar was now being weaponized and was no longer a monetary instrument exclusively. Nations began to realize if they did not conform to the commands of Washington, then they to could be removed from SWIFT. Thus they have divided the world economy bringing to an end globalization.

Your analysis and studies seems to reveal several critical issues regarding the stability of the so-called Western system. There is a profound crisis of democratic systems, there is a lot of mistrust towards mainstream information and above all there are “agents” external to the institutions (an example above all is the activity of George Soros) who seem to influence the choices of governments in the United States and Western Europe. What could happen in the immediate future and in the coming years?

It has been propaganda that we live under a democracy. We live under republics in which case the people are represented and have no right to vote on critical issues. Republics historically are the most corrupt forms of government compared to a monarchy or dictatorship which cannot be bribed. In a republic, all representatives lacking term limits are up for sale to the highest bidder. This has resulted in the collapse of confidence in government both in Europe and the US which have fallen below 30% – the lowest since WWII. External agents such as George Soros, Bill Gates, World Economic Forum, push personal agendas which has further undermined the confidence in our systems. It is the government that decides if we go to war or not. The people are never asked.

 » It has been propaganda that we live under a democracy. 

We live under republics in which case the people are represented and have no right to vote on critical issues. 

Republics historically are the most corrupt forms of government. «

We invite you to make some reflections on the geoeconomic dimension. The global capitalist system is based on the indebtedness of sovereign states. Is this a sustainable situation? Who will pay the bill in the end?

The sovereign debt crisis that we face has appeared often throughout history. It is unsustainable because governments act in their own self-interest and will always expand debt to retain power. Historically, these systems collapse when they issue new debt to pay off the old, and no one is there to buy the new debt. Once they can no longer continue to borrow new money, then inevitably, they collapse.

Your predictive model is based on precise calculations. The cycles of history and the economy thus seem to chase each other along the time span of history. If I’m not mistaken, you compared the current context to the crisis and dissolution of the Roman Empire. Is it correct?

History repeats because human nature never changes. The Roman Empire is but one example from history of its success and failures. It lasted longer than anyone because it did not impose cultural regulations. The Christians called them pagans because they had so many Gods. That was the product of their policy of freedom of religion. Athens had Athena, Northern Europe had Thor, so they did not try to change the culture of the lands they conquered. They created a common market where someone in Britain could sell products to someone in Rome. So the freedom of religion, low taxation, freedom of movement, and a common market combined to create the Pax Romana.

Is it still possible to avoid a large-scale world conflict?

It is unlikely that we can avoid world war. Governments need war because their debts are no longer sustainable. They will use the war as the excuse for defaults – as was the case for WWII. They will create Bretton Woods II with the IMF digital currency as the reserve.

Pope Francis has been talking about a piecemeal Third World War for years. From your point of view, is what the Holy Father claims can be shared? What are the main weapons of this possible Third World War?

I believe we have a third world war that will begin piecemeal with the Middle East, Iran vs Israel, Europe vs Russia, north Korea vs Japan and South Korea, China vs Taiwan. But they will eventually merge together.

Have you argued that the true wealth of a state is its people? Why did we forget about all this? Above all, who is it convenient for?

The wealth of every nation is its people. That has been proven with the rise of Germany and Japan after WWII. This is the essence of Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand.” But those in government prefer Marx, for he advocates that the state has the power to manipulate the people. So, Governments have forgotten it and reject Smith because Marx provides them with more power.

Is it correct to claim that your analysis succeed in covering the intersection of geopolitics, global markets and economic confidence? Can you explain to us in a simple way how your Socrates predictive model works? By the way, why did you name it just like the Greek philosopher?

I named my computer model after Socrates because the oracle of Delphi had said that he was the smartest man in Greece. He tried to prove the oracle wrong and the process proved it to be correct. He was put on trial and sentenced to death because he knew too much. My computer has taught me a lot in geopolitics, we had a major bank in Lebanon in the 1980’s and they asked if I could create a model on the Lebanese pound. I put the data in the computer and it came out and said their country would fall apart in 8 days. I thought something was wrong with the data. When I told the client, they asked me what currency would be best, and I said the Swiss Franc. Eight days later the civil war began. Obviously they saw the movement of money themselves and came to me for the timing. The same thing happened with a client in Saudi Arabia who was a big shipper. He called me asking me what gold would do tomorrow because Iran was going to begin attacking shipping in the gulf. So once again, there was advanced information about war. By 1998, I understood how the computer was forecasting such events. I warned in June at our London conference that Russia was about to collapse. The London financial Times had snuck into the back of the room and reported that forecast on the front of their newspaper on June 27th 1998. Russia collapsed about 6 weeks later.

Are unpredictable events, such as the terrorist attack in Moscow, also considered among the parameters of your predictive model? A “black swan” type event can change the course of history and geopolitical relations?

Yes, we saw the capital flows shift a day in advance, up to a week in advance in the case of the attack in Israel. The defense stocks began to rise even with 9/11 the government used our model to look at who bought puts on airlines in the days before. Someone always knows when they’re going to do these types of events. And they move their money either to profit or to avoid a loss. The computer is tracking everything. It cannot tell me which person has done it. Just that the move is about to take place.

Quoted from:
Piero Messina (May 1, 2024) - Interview with Martin Armstrong.

 

 » America is a Golden Calf and we will suck it dry, chop it up, and sell it off piece by piece. «

 

See also:

Martin Armstrong (May 1, 2024) - Will Russia Push the Button?

ICT AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory | Darya Filipenka

People have been asking me to share my strategy. No, I do NOT overcomplicate things. I'm simply demonstrating how straightforward it can be. My strategy is primarily based on the Power of 3 concept that you can find on @I_Am_The_ICT YouTube Channel.

 

ICT New York Morning Session A+ Setups based on Quarterly Theory:

Between 8:15 and 8:38 am (EST/EDT; during the Q3 micro cycle) look for a ICT Unicorn Setup.

I've made some additions to my trading arsenal since @traderdaye introduced the Quarterly Theory, but I've been using this setup since February 2023. I didn't have a name for it initially, but Quarterly Theory seems fitting to me.

I hope you can gain some new insights from my findings, which I've been diligently working on for almost a year. Nevertheless, the core of my strategy can be found on @traderdaye page and @I_Am_The_ICT YouTube Channel.

  

 » Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles. ‌« 

Quoted from:
Darya Filipenka a.k.a. @LumiTraders (Oct 31, 2023) - AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory.

 

See also:

Daye a.k.a. @traderdaye (2024) - The Quarterly Theory. 

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Silver Bullet Strategy.

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Syllabus for Beginners - How to Study ICT on YouTube. 

Darya Filipenka (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship: The Smart Money Guide to the Full ICT Day Trading Model.

Typical May Up Early, Weak Middle, Strong Finish | Jeff Hirsch

Over the last 21 years, the first three days of May have historically traded higher, and the S&P 500 has been up 18 of the last 26 first trading days of May. 

 

Bouts of weakness often appear around or on the fourth, sixth/seventh, and twelfth trading days of the month while the last four or five trading days have generally enjoyed respectable gains on average, but the last day of May has weakened noticeably with only NASDAQ gaining ground.

Monday before May monthly option expiration (Monday, May 13) is much stronger than monthly expiration day itself (Friday, May 17) albeit weaker for small caps. S&P 500 has registered only ten losses in the last thirty-four years on Monday. Monthly expiration day is a loser nearly across the board except for Russell 2000 with a slight average gain (+0.01%). 

 

The full week (May 13-17) had a bullish bias that is fading in recent years with DJIA down seven of the last eight and S&P 500 down six of the last seven. 

 

The week after options expiration week (May 20-24) now tends to favor tech and small caps. NASDAQ has advanced in 24 of the last 34 weeks while Russell 2000 has risen in 26 of the last 34 with an average weekly gain of 0.88%.

 

 April was the first down month in 6 months. Almanac readers know April is the best Dow month by average percent change and #2 for S&P. It’s ranked fourth for average percent change on NASDAQ and Russell 2000.

In general, April is a notoriously bullish market month overall with a high average percent and plurality of gains across the board. A negative April is cause for concern. When the #1 Dow month is down that could be significant.

Digging into the data in the tables below of all down Aprils since 1950 there is a plethora of red in May and through Q2 and Q3. There are several steep drops scattered throughout these 21 down April years. May, Q2 and Q3 show consistent and average losses.

Q4 however delivered solid gains except for four years: 1973 (Watergate, Vietnam, Oil Embargo), 1987 (Crash), 2000 (Undecided Election) and 2012 (ZIRP, QE3, Operation Twist, Big Q1 & Q3). You can see why we expect the market to struggle for the next several months.

 

Quoted from:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 6, 2024) - Typical May Up Early, Weak Middle, Strong Finish.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 7, 2024) - When Bullish April Is Down Stocks Often Struggle Until Q4.

 

 In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 

In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms.

Algo vs SPY | Handler & Associates, Inc.

Reference:
Handler & Associates, Inc. (May 5, 2024) - OSS Nightly Indicators. Tonight's Free Charts - Email Newsletter.

The Great Replacement - Europe has fallen | Eva Vlaardingerbroek

Their message is clear. Our way of life, our Christian religion, our nations, they have to go without exception. Their vision of the future is the neoliberal, unrecognizable Europe, where every city becomes kind of like Brussels. Ugly, dirty, unsafe, zero social cohesion. And what are we left with? A permanent state of isolation, confusion and disorientation. 

 

» Everyone who has eyes can see it:

The native white Christian European population is being replaced at an ever-accelerating rate. ‌«

 

[...] So what's the antidote? A strong Christian Europe of sovereign nation states. That's why we need to outright reject the lie that nationalism causes war. It's not nationalism or national sovereignty that causes war. It's expansionism. And where in Europe do we find that nowadays? In one place and one place only: Brussels. Isn't it funny how the same people who erode our national sovereignty are now telling us that we need to spend billions and billions of euros on the national sovereignty of Ukraine?

» I am going to draw the forbidden conclusion:

The Great Replacement Theory is no longer a theory. ‌«  

[...] During a recent interview I got asked: "Do you think that you ever go too far? Do you think that you're ever too radical?" I thought about it for a second and said: "No, I don't think I go too far." Truth be told. I think we in Europe do not go far enough. I think that if we really think about the organized structural attack on our civilization, that we don't do enough. Do we do enough to stop the attack on our families, on our continent, on our countries and our religion? When we hear about another murder, another stabbing of a young innocent child, do we do enough? When we know that our national sovereignty has been given up in Brussels, do we do enough? When we hear that Christian kids in Germany are now converting to Islam to fit in, do we do enough? I don't think so. 

 

The totalitarian institution of the European Union needs to come down. Let me be clear: I don't believe in reforms. When the foundation of your institution is rotten, and that is the case in Brussels, you can rebuild the house on top of it all you want, but it's still going to crumble. So the only answer is: The Tower of Babel needs to be destroyed! We are the daughters and sons of the greatest nations on Earth. And we need to ask ourselves, what has happened to us? Where do we come from? And more importantly, where are we going? 

 

Our elites have declared a war on us, and now it is time for us to put on the full armor of God, fight back and win.  

 

Eva Vlaardingerbroek 

 

April 25, 2024

 

"The Islamic New World Order is Here - Europe has fallen."

Speech at the 'Conservative Political Action Conference' in Budapest, Hungary.

The Kremlin's Last Warning | Martin Armstrong

Dmitry Konstantinovich Kiselyov (born 1954) is a major TV host, and his latest warning to the West is to issue an ultimatum to the UK and the US. On Russian TV, Kiselyov warned [on April 29, 2024] that if a Western power deploys soldiers on the ground in Ukraine to ‘inflict a strategic defeat on Russia,’ it will result in Armageddon. Of course, what I find stunning is how the Western press characterizes him as “Vladimir Putin’s propagandist,” and the implication of those words is that they are not a real threat. 

 

» Then the very moment would come. ‌«

RS-28 Sarmat [dubbed 'Satan II' by NATO] is Russia's most capable hypersonic thermonuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). With a range of 18,000 km and traveling 27 times the speed of sound, Sarmat can extinguish any target/country/enemy anywhere on the planet within minutes with one single strike. Including the US - May 1, 2024.

The press takes NOTHING said from Russia seriously – it’s all a joke, just propaganda. [...] Kiselyov is not going to say this on national TV without the Kremlin actually delivering this warning. He said:  “If NATO countries send their troops into Ukraine in order to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, then the very moment about which Putin once said, “Why do we need the world, if there is no Russia in it?” would come.‌”

» Russia can turn the US into radioactive ash. This is not propaganda. ‌«

Dmitry Kiselyov, delivering the Kremlin's last warning - April 29, 2024. 

Russia has indeed threatened to ‘turn the US into radioactive ash’ and ‘sink Britain’ below the waves. While some NATO leaders have been more circumspect, this need for war to justify the defaulting on debt that is the real factor behind the West’s desire for war will have far greater consequences than these fake world leaders who are all hand puppets of the Neocons. Kiselyov added: “This is not propaganda.” Yet in the West, the Neocons are saying this is a bluff, and Putin will never use nukes so the West can completely destroy Russia – their hated enemy for decades, without a shot fired.

Quoted from:

Martin Armstrong (May 1, 2024) - Will Russia Push the Button?

 

» There seems to be a conspiracy in the British Isles. Why threaten boundless Russia with nuclear weapons while sitting on a small island? The island is so small that one Sarmat missile is enough to sink it once and for all. This is just one launch, and there is no England, once and for all! Another option to plunge Britain into the abyss is the Russian Poseidon. There is no way to stop this underwater drone. It has a warhead with a capacity of up to 100 megatons. The explosion of this thermonuclear torpedo off the coast of Britain will raise a giant wave up to 500 meters high. Such a squall of water is also a carrier of extreme doses of radiation. Passing over the British Isles, it will turn what may be left of them into a radioactive desert. ‌«

Dmitry Kiselyov - May 2, 2022.

Solunar Rhythm, Cosmic Cluster Days & Sensitive Sun Degrees | May 2024

 

The SoLunar Rhythm in May 2024.

 [ oftentimes true : ]

New Moons mark beginnings of cycles, Full Moons mark completions.
In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 

In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms.

 

ooo0ooo

 

Only one Turning Point during May 2024 in the Geocentric Bradley Barometer.

2024 Feb 25 (Sun) = Low
2024 May 26 (Sun) = High
2024 Jun 11 (Tue) = Low

 

ooo0ooo

 

  Cosmic Cluster Days | May 2024

 Apr 26 (Fri)
May 15 (Wed)
May 26 (Sun)
Jun 16 (Sun)

 

ooo0ooo

 

Chinese 24 Solar Terms | May 2024

  

ooo0ooo

 

Sensitive Degrees of the Sun | May 2024

2024 04 26 (Fri) = SUN @ 6 TAU = 36 degrees = negative = low
2024 05 01 (Wed) = SUN @ 12 TAU = 42 degrees = neutral
2024 05 08 (Wed) = SUN @ 18 TAU = 48 degrees = negative = low
2024 05 19 (Sun) = SUN @ 19 TAU = 59 degrees = neutral
2024 05 25 (Sat) = SUN @ 5 GEM = 65 degrees = negative = low
2024 06 06 (Thu) = SUN @ 16 GEM = 76 degrees = neutral

Cosmic Cluster Days | May - June 2024

Cosmic Cluster Day  |   Composite Line  |  Cosmic Noise Channel

○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon

 

Cosmic Cluster Days have no consistent polarity nor directional bias. Swing highs and lows also inside of the 'noise channel' may correlate with market directions and reversals. Upcoming Cluster Days are: 

 

Apr 26 (Fri)
May 15 (Wed)
May 26 (Sun)
Jun 16 (Sun)
Jun 26 (Wed)
Jun 28 (Fri)
Jul 04 (Thu)

 

More background information on the author, concept and calculation of Cosmic Cluster Days HERE.

S&P 500 Cycle Analysis | Steve Miller

Reference:
Steve Miller (April 26, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycle Analysis. (video)

Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped? | Peter L. Brandt

Judge for yourself. It’s called Exponential Decay — and it describes Bitcoin. I hate being the bearer of bad news, but data are data. The fact is that the bull market cycles in Bitcoin have lost a tremendous amount of thrust over the years. You may like the story of this data or not — but you will have to deal with it (or at least account for it, adjust for it or just plain ignore it). In fact, I don’t like the Exponential Decay occurring in Bitcoin — Bitcoin is one of my personal largest investment positions.

There have been four major bull cycles in Bitcoin, with the current advance the fifth major bull cycle [the advance from cycle low to cycle high shown in brackets].

    Dec 21, 2009 to Jun 6, 2011 [3,191X advance]
    Nov 14, 2011 to Nov 25, 2013 [572X advance]
    Aug 17, 2015 to Dec 18, 2017 [ 122X advance]
    Dec 10, 2018 to Nov 8, 2021 [ 22X advance]
    Nov 21, 2022 to xxx x,, yyyy [high so far is $73,835 registered on Mar 14, 2024]

Now, here is where Exponential Decay is showing its ugly head.

    The magnitude of the 2011-2013 was approx. 20% of the 2009-2011 cycle
    The magnitude of the 2015-2017 was approx. 20% of the 2011-2013 cycle
    The magnitude of the 2018-2021 was approx. 20% of the 2015-2017 cycle

Worded another way, 80% of the exponential energy of each successful bull market cycle has been lost. Applied forward, this would indicate that the current bull cycle will experience an an exponential advance of approximately 4.5X or so (80% of the 22X of the 2018-2021 cycle). Taking a low for the current cycle of $15,473 projects a high for this cycle of  $72,723 — guess what — a price that has already been reached.

Well, you will ask, what about the halving? Prices have exploded upwards after every previous halving. And that may happen again. But for now we need to deal with the fact of Exponential Decay. It has happened. It is real. You may not want to believe it, but I place a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped for this cycle.

If Bitcoin has topped, what’s next you might ask. Of course I have no clue. But, if Bitcoin has topped I would expect a decline back to the mid-$30s, or the 2021 lows. From a classical charting point of view, such a decline is the most bullish thing that could happen from a long-term view. If you want to see an example of such a chart structure, look at the Gold chart from August 2020 to March 2024.

Do I believe the analysis just presented? I don’t want to, but the data speak for itself.

Quoted from:
Peter L. Brandt (April 26, 2024) - Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped?

 

 
See also:
Peter L. Brandt (March 9, 2024) - Bitcoin April 2024 Halving - Target 150K+ by October 2025.