Long-Term Cycle Outlook On US-Stocks

Hard down into Q1 2016.
Kitchin Cycle (42 months), 1/3 Kitchin Cycle (13 1/2 months), Wall Cycle (4 1/2 months - 100 days)
Credits: Swing Trade Cycles

2015 vs 1998

Credits: Nautilus Research

7 Year Cycle Bottoms

JustSignals (Nov 4, 2015) - Note that in the 20th century the "5th" year of the decade was a strong year.  In the early part of the 20th century this had been brought to light by the late W.D. Gann and an analysis of the decennial patterns throughout the century.  In addition, there are two 10 year cycle patterns.  One bottoms in years ending in a "2" and tops in a year ending in a "7" and the other bottoms in a year ending in a "4" and tops in a year ending in a "9".  This does not happen ALL the time, but it does happen often.  In fact you will see that when the "7 year cycle" falls on a year ending in a "5" that the bottom falls in the year before ending in a "4" probably because that cycle may be more dominant at the time. Let's now see the "7 year cycles" going back to the early 1900's courtesy of Worden Bros. Charts. A green arrow notes the bottoms and since 1932 was a very dominant bottom the count back and forward use that year as a starting point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 














Each time the "7 year cycle" bottomed the strength varied.  It was not the dominant cycle each time, but, there were many times it was and it made a meaningful bottom. Will this cycle continue and make a bottom in 2016?  This cycle is now being watched by many many people.  The market will not make it easy for this cycle to bottom.  It is probable that head fake may be seen along the way.  Be prepared and be careful.

German DAX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

However, the Nasdaq dropped only by -0.1% or -2.65 points on Nov 4 (Wed) while the RASI was still rising, and Thomas Bulkowski
remarks: Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 541 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's: Average
gain was 0.7% on 295 occasions. Average loss was -0.9% on 246 occasions. Expect the index to close higher 54.5% [on Nov 5].

Tekkie Suresh: "Rahu getting involved with Venus and Mars, points to a trough around November mid month, Should see  a recovery thereafter."

Jeff Hirsch (Nov 3, 2015) - In the most recent 21-year period spanning 1994 to 2014, November opens strong, peaks around the fourth
trading day, trades lower till the eighth trading day, bounces mid-month, moves sideway to down during the week before Thanksgiving
then higher to close out the month with gains ranging from just under 1.5% for Russell 2000 to over 2% for DJIA.

Upcoming Astro Phenomena - November 2015

Enlarge

Sunspots suggest the stock market will be up on Nov 02 (Mon). The same is true for the Ap (chart above).
Contrary to these the SoLunar Map points to a short term market low on Tuesday, Nov 3. See also the Astrometric Indicator.
Oscar Carboni expects Monday to be down, but mentions stocks could switch back up again the same day.

SoLunar Intraday Maps - November 2015

The charts show the hourly solunar forces over Wall Street. Intraday movements of financial markets are strongly influenced 
by daily and intraday solunar forces. They usually closely follow their direction - either directly or inverted. Turning points can
be fine-tuned using the previously described planetary hours as well as the times of rising, culminating and setting planets.
Please note: Times calculated refer to EST.

SPX vs Composite of Annual Cycle + Lunar Cycle + Mercury Cycle

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution

SPX vs AstroMetric Indicator

SPX vs Fibonacci Time-Price Relations

Sideways to down into Nov 02 (Tue) filling the gap around 2,056? DOWN Mon-Tue-Wed Oct 26-28 (Full Moon), UP Thur-Fri Oct 29-30,
DOWN Mon-Tues Nov 2-3? Afterwards UP to higher high in the second half of November?

SPX vs Annual Cycle + 5th Year of Decennial Cycle

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution

Martin Armstrong's Political Economy | 72 Year Cycle of Political Change

"Bretton Woods took place in 1944. Adding 72 years brings us to 2016. This model has been
uncanny in predicting political change." (recent interview HERE)

Martin Armstrong (Jan 8, 2013) - Where does the Political-Economy Model stand right now for the West? The answer to that question is the epic turn appears to be 2016. Bretton Woods took place in 1944. Adding 72 years brings us to 2016. This model has been uncanny in predicting political change incorporating the same frequency for volatility. The Russian Revolution of 1917 was right on target with the fall of the Berlin Wall 72 years later in 1989. This strongly warns that this wave in the Economic Confidence Model due to peak 2015.75, will be extremely important. This is the time frame we have been looking at for the past 30 years for the next Sovereign Debt Crisis. Certain trends simply cannot be sustained beyond 72 years without change. 

"High Treason" - Federal Republic of Germany established May 23, 1949 + 72 Years = 2021

This time that change is coming by dragging the politicians by the hair cave-man style. How intelligent people just cannot see the problem with borrowing perpetually and never having any intention of paying off the debt, it’s simply unimaginable. The previous cycle turning in 1872 and that led to what is known as the “long depression” of the 19th century everyone concedes lasted for 26 years. This is why the real estate model is 78 years. It too is closely aligned with political turmoil that always brings structural change [...] Consequently, we are looking at 2014 for the beginning of a rise in separatism and civil unrest around the West. Then we see 2016 and the start of a nasty economic decline. We could see things get real bad during the 2016-2020 phase. That may actually be the bottom in the European economic meltdown (see also HERE)

Martin Armstrong (Oct 17, 2015) - Each country has its own unique cycle. There was a very major turning point in France that nearly became a revolution [in May 1968]. Even Charles de Gaulle secretly left France for a few hours after fearing for his life and a revolution [...] The French socialist state is now collapsing under Hollande. Civil unrest will erupt moving into 2017 and then there is the risk of another major cultural revolution as the youth do not share the same values as the socialistic elites who are in control. We will see that risk erupt by 2020 or 51.6 years from the May 1968 cultural revolution (see also HERE)

United States Just Lost Superiority In Conventional Warfare

The biggest event that took place in Syria as part of Operation Hmeymim was the use by
the Russian Navy’s Caspian Flotilla of 26 seaborne land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs)
that hit 11 Daesh and Jabhat al-Nusra military targets inside Syria, which were located
about 1,500 km. away from the missile launch site (HERE)

Thierry Meyssan (Oct 19, 2015) - Moscow’s military intervention in Syria has not simply overturned the fortunes of war and spread panic throughout the ranks of the jihadist groups. It has also shown the rest of the world the current capacities of the Russian army in situations of real warfare. To everyone’s astonishment, it has proved to possess a system of signal jamming capable of rendering the Atlantic Alliance deaf and blind (A2/AD = anti-access/area denial). Despite a far superior budget, the United States have just lost their military domination.

Vladimir Kozin (Oct 13, 2015) - The firing of cruise missiles by the Russian Navy, from the Caspian Sea, was not necessary for its military operation in Syria. However, this convincing show of force, demonstrates Russia’s technical superiority over NATO in this domain. Therefore, the so-called anti-missile shield, currently deployed by the Atlantic Alliance around Russia, is now obsolete.

SPX vs JUP-SAT Cycle

The Jupiter-Saturn Cycle pointed to the market turn last Thursday (Oct 15, 2015). The next CIT should be Oct 23 (Fri). The Solunar Map hints
to a short-term market low on Tuesday, October 20 and another rise into the end of this week. This would be in line also with Alphee Lavoie's
and Mike Korrell's forecasts of another week sideways to up in stocks. 

Credits: BusinessInsider and Deutsche Bank

Russell 2000 vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

Since about ten days there is a growing contradiction between the intermediate Delta count (118 CD) and the medium- and long-term counts
(354 CD = 1 Lunar Year and 1417 CD = 4 Lunar Year cycle). These cycles may just have inverted their polarity (see below).

SPX vs Astrometric Indicator

SPX vs Sunspots

Are 97% Of Climate Scientists Complete Morons?

Looking e.g. at the open minded and innovative scientific findings in H.H. Clayton's excellent World Weather Records of 1923, perfectly illustrates
the intellectual degradation of nowadays mainstream climate sciences, deluded and obsessed by the fraudulent and absurd malthusian ideology
of man-made global warming and the genocidal cult of 'climate protection' (HERE + HERE)

Tony Heller (Oct 16, 2015) - Atmospheric CO2 has risen by 100 parts per million (one part per ten thousand) over the past century [...] Experts claim that this one molecule has heated the other 10,000 molecules up by more than one degree centigrade. In order for one molecule to heat up 10,000 other molecules by 1°C, the effective temperature of that one molecule would have to be 10,000°C – about twice the temperature of the surface of the Sun. Only a complete moron would believe something so ludicrous, which is why they [IPCC] say 97% of [climate] scientists agree on this utter nonsense.

If the name of a single person were to be identified with the birth of paleoclimatology, it would be Vladimir Peter Köppen (1846–1940),
a German-Russian geographer, meteorologist, climatologist and botanist. In 1924 he and his son-in-law Alfred Wegener published a paper
called 'Die Klimate der Geologischen Vorzeit' (The Climates Of The Geological Past) providing crucial support to the astronomical
theory on ice ages of Milutin Milanković (1879-1958).

SPX vs Maximum Elongation of Mercury

Previous posts HERE

Financial Markets and Solar Activity HERE

Richard Nolle (Sep 30, 2015) - Mercury Max refers to a phase in the Earth-Mercury-Sun relationship, when Mercury swings around from behind the Sun to catch up and pass the slower orbiting Earth. As it does this, Mercury draws closer and closer to our home planet, until it reaches its perigee (closest approach to Earth), coincident with what’s called the inferior Sun-Mercury conjunction. At this time, Earth, Mercury and the Sun are aligned with Mercury in the middle, passing between us and the Sun. Mercury Max is a cycle of enhanced dynamism in the Earth-Mercury-Sun relationship. It’s a time when the Sun is prone to a flurry of disturbances – strong X-Ray flares, coronal holes and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). These have direct correlations here on Earth: dump Gigawatts of extra solar energy into Earth’s atmosphere and magnetosphere, and you get increased atmospheric and geomagnetic storms, and enhanced seismic activity. 

[...] The current Mercury Max cycle (the third one and final complete one this year) began with Mercury’s maximum eastern elongation on September 4, continues through the September 17 to October 9 retrograde (including the September 30 inferior conjunction with the Sun), and concludes when the little Sun-grazer reaches maximum western elongation on October 15.

Celestial Phenomena Calculator

CBOE SKEW Index Hits All-Time High

The CBOE SKEW Index has hit an all-time high, which means the cost of protecting against a major outside event is now at a record.
The CBOE SKEW Index is an index derived from the price of S&P 500 tail risk. Similar to VIX®, the price of S&P 500 tail risk is
calculated from the prices of S&P 500 out-of-the-money options. SKEW typically ranges from 100 to 150. A SKEW value of 100 means
that the perceived distribution of S&P 500 log-returns is normal, and the probability of outlier returns is therefore negligible.
As SKEW rises above 100, the left tail of the S&P 500 distribution acquires more weight, and the probabilities of outlier returns
become more significant. 

Credits: Simon Maierhofer

Global Wealth Distribution

Credit Suisse (Oct 2015) - Just 0.7% of the world's adult population owns almost half of the world's wealth, while the bottom 71%
have less than USD 10,000 each. That poorest two-thirds of the population own a 3% sliver of the world's wealth, and inequality is rising.