Friday, August 21, 2026

Debt Trap: Western Finance Replaced Productive Capitalism | Michael Hudson

In an in-depth discussion, American economist Michael Hudson and Norwegian political and international relations scientist Glenn Diesen examine the historical and economic roots of the financial instability currently confronting Western economies. Hudson argues that the Western financial system is unsustainable because debt grows faster than the economy's capacity to service it.  

Historical Debt Relief Traditions
Unlike ancient Mesopotamia, where rulers from the third millennium BC onward periodically proclaimed "clean slate" debt cancellations, known as andurarum or misharum, which wiped out agrarian debts, freed people in debt bondage, and restored land to cultivators, the modern West has never institutionalized such resets. Similarly, the biblical Jubilee tradition echoed these practices by mandating the periodic release of debts and restoration of property. 


postpone it until a time of ease.

Islamic tradition likewise established a clear obligation to grant debt relief: the Quran (2:280) requires creditors to grant a debtor in genuine hardship a postponement until a time of ease, while encouraging creditors to forgive all or part of the debt as a superior act of charity. These ancient and religious practices helped preserve a viable productive population and limited creditors’ ability to monopolize the means of production. 

From Industrial to Finance Capitalism
The absence of comparable mechanisms today has contributed to extreme polarization of wealth and power. Western economies have shifted from industrial capitalism, which directed investment toward factories, machinery, research, infrastructure, and productive employment, to finance capitalism. 
 
Early modern wage-rent-tax slaves at Ford's assembly lines.
 
The latter prioritizes wealth accumulation through leverage and debt, corporate takeovers, real estate speculation, and asset-price inflation rather than tangible capital formation. This transition has contributed to deindustrialization and concentrated gains among the top holders of financial claims. 
 
Western Central Banking and Creditor Power
Western central banks reinforce this dynamic further: rather than acting as public authorities empowered to cancel or suspend debts that have become unpayable, as Bronze Age rulers did or as Islamic traditions of debt respite prescribe, they primarily support commercial banks and asset markets, enforce creditor claims, and resolve crises by expanding their own balance sheets—thereby protecting the financial sector while leaving household and productive-economy debt intact.  
 
The development of European banking was deeply shaped by the Crusades, when the Church and later secular states used debt to finance warfare. Over time, fiscal policy became increasingly subordinated to banking interests, reversing earlier anti-usury traditions and embedding institutions designed to enforce debt collection rather than protect debtors.

Brokers at the New York Stock Exchange in 1963.

Without an authority comparable to the ancient "divine king," whose duty was to keep debt within the population's capacity to repay, Western constitutions historically concentrated political and economic power in the hands of a creditor oligarchy. Contemporary central banks, rather than reversing this concentration, operate within the same creditor-oriented framework. 

China’s Public Credit Model
By contrast, China treats credit as a public utility under state control through the People's Bank of China. The state limits the emergence of an independent financial class capable of operating outside state priorities and channels credit creation toward national development—factories, machinery, and infrastructure—rather than speculative bubbles.
  
People's Bank of China Headquarter, Beijing.

Because the central bank remains a public instrument, China retains greater practical capacity, analogous to the debt-relief practices of ancient Mesopotamia and the Islamic principle of relieving hardship, to restructure or write down debts that threaten productive capacity and social stability. This approach supports industrial growth and limits the systemic polarization seen in the West.
 
The Ponzi Dynamics of Western Debt
Hudson describes the Western system as a Ponzi scheme: new debt is continually required simply to service interest on existing loans. Because a large share of bank lending fuels asset inflation rather than productive investment, more income is diverted into debt service, domestic demand weakens, and the economy stagnates.   
 
Mug shot of Charles Ponzi.
 
The resulting reliance on continually expanding debt, combined with geopolitical pressures surrounding the dollar and the oil trade, leaves Western economies increasingly vulnerable to financial and economic instability.

Thursday, August 20, 2026

The Imminent Fall of the Eurodollar System | Alex Krainer

During a meeting with technology, crypto, and finance leaders held at the White House yesterday, President Trump brought up the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act) again.

» I know, I know… The idea that the Trump administration is doing anything "legitimate"
may defy imagination by now, but the current arrangement is anything but legitimate. «
 
Trump framed the Act as part of his administration's broader crypto and digital-asset agenda (ending what he called the "war on crypto," launching "Project Crypto," establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and creating a Digital Asset Stockpile):
"One year ago this summer, I signed landmark legislation known as the GENIUS Act. … paving the way for widespread adoption of dollar-backed stablecoins, and that's worked out very well."
Indeed, the Act was already passed last summer, and Trump signed it into law on July 18, 2025, so why all the commotion about it now, more than a year later?

Could be earth-shattering…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tweeted that the GENIUS Act established a landmark framework and clear rules of the road for payment stablecoins, and that the Treasury is moving quickly to implement that framework, asking for "input from stakeholders" in order to "cement the role of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, and keep America the crypto capital of the world."

The US, via regulated dollar stablecoins and Treasury authority under the GENIUS Act, aims to shut down the unregulated eurodollar market, reclaim control of the dollar's global role, and defund the "rules-based order" and shadow networks, triggering market tremors, surging demand for legitimate dollars, and pressure on non-favored countries such as Britain, the EU, and Canada.
The Act establishes new US federal laws creating a comprehensive regulatory framework for payment stablecoins redeemable for a fixed monetary value (typically $1) and intended to maintain a stable value relative to the "legal tender" currency. It also restricts the issuance of stablecoins to "permitted payment stablecoin issuers," and this is where the GENIUS Act gets extremely interesting.

What GENIUS Is All About…
Speaking at the SALT Conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the former Wall Street executive and prominent advocate for monetary reform Caitlin Long pointed out that the GENIUS Act enables the Treasury Department to define "what is allowed to be a so-called euro-dollar, euro-yen, euro-euro. Or yuan, right?" She continued:
"… the term ‘euro' doesn't mean European. It means a dollar issued offshore outside of the United States … These are tokenized fiat currencies issued outside of their home country, and the US Treasury is taking charge of the recognition of the validity of these. That is massive.

The fact that there are institutions outside of the United States that can issue US currency should be regarded as an illegal aberration. Effectively, they're counterfeiting US dollars, but in spite of that, for some reason, it has been taken as normal for decades now. That's in spite of the fact that counterfeiting US dollars abroad effectively robs the purchasing power of American taxpayers to fund any manner of nefarious activities."
Most likely, that's why this system was allowed to grow to such massive proportions. Caitlin Long again:
"… If you're a student of the financial markets, you know that the eurodollar market is as large as the domestic financial market. That's the offshore dollar market. When the US Treasury is taking control of what is recognized as valid, that is taken from the Fed. … The Treasury is taking power back over the US dollar, over the eurodollar markets, and, frankly, over the US role in the financial system globally from the Fed."
Long made these comments after discussing the GENIUS Act with "someone who just walked out" of a Treasury Department meeting, and if she is right (I believe she certainly is), the implications could be truly earth-shattering. To begin with, disenfranchising the Fed and taking control over the currency from it is the stuff of civil wars.
"To put that into context, when we were talking earlier about how antiquated the traditional system is and that the Fed's systems are themselves behind… If you've been watching, all of the other agencies have issued rules [in accordance with the GENIUS Act]. One glaring exception: the Fed has not issued its rules yet, and according to the GENIUS Act, all of the agencies' rules were supposed to be final a couple of weeks ago. The Fed hasn't even issued theirs yet, so there's this dynamic going on between the Treasury Department and the Fed."
"The dynamic" going on between the Treasury Department and the Fed is a political collision course in which the Treasury is trying to wrest control over the monetary system from the unelected private bankers and return it to the democratically elected government and its legitimate institutions.

I know, I know… The idea that the Trump administration is doing anything "legitimate" may defy imagination by now, but the current arrangement is anything but legitimate. It is also patently unconstitutional: the Constitution of the US explicitly authorizes Congress with the power "To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof…" (Article I, Section 8, Clause 5). The Constitution also gives Congress the power "to provide for the punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States."
 
Contrary to its name, the eurodollar has nothing to do with the European currency. The eurodollar market is an offshore fractional-reserve banking system in which dollar deposits held at banks outside the US are multiplied through interbank lending and book-entry creation, largely free of Fed reserve requirements, to form a vast parallel dollar funding market that ultimately settles via US payment systems.
Eurodollar, Fed, and the Shadow Governments
The counterfeit US dollars circulating abroad are the glue that holds the global "rules-based" order together: they enable the funding needed to bribe foreign officials, pay for and arm the sundry jihadi terror groups and separatist militias. The colossal network of NGOs, charitable organizations, and other groups and activities of shadow governments around the world can't be fully funded through legitimate legal means. These activities often require illegal activities and trillions in embezzled funds.

For example, according to recent reports, billions of dollars have been offered to Iranian officials to sell out and turn Iran over to a government more friendly to the Trump team. In the past, we know that hundreds of millions in US bank notes are routinely smuggled from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, past the US Comptroller of the Currency, to provide funding for coups, assassinations, regime-change operations, and similar "special assignments" by the shadow government.

That is why it should be essential for the US government to regain control of the dollars circulating abroad (or to render those dollars illegitimate and worthless), defunding the "rules-based global order" and reasserting US economic and financial sovereignty. While it would be too optimistic to expect that the Trump administration has pushed the GENIUS Act to achieve any such elevated goals, we should hope that it might leave behind the means needed for American democracy to reassert its economic and financial sovereignty and turn its currency into a tool to recover its prosperity and economic edge.

In the Meantime, Tremors
Given that half or more of all US dollars in circulation around the world are outside the United States, the administration's intended actions (there'll be ambushes; we'll find out) will cause major tremors in world markets, driving demand for "legitimate" dollars and rendering the "illegitimate" ones worthless. This will enable Trump and his team to exert pressure on governments around the world and dictate the terms at which their dollar balances may be converted into new stablecoins needed for trade settlement and reserve requirements.

I expect that Great Britain, the EU, and Canada won't be among the "most favored nations" in the near future, which will further worsen their fiscal positions, make it difficult for them to access global markets and procure commodities like oil, natural gas, wheat, and others. This will lead to shortages and exacerbate inflationary pressures at home.

Reference:

Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Smart Money Concepts: An 80-Year History | Stacey Burke

Nothing changes on Wall Street. Markets continue to do the same three things they have always done: they break out and continue, they break out and fail, or they remain in a higher-time-frame trading range. That leaves two primary setups: pump-coil-dump and dump-coil-pump—or no trade. The real battle lies within the trader—fighting human impulses, emotions, and random erratic behavior. Mastery comes from applying simple, repeating concepts through a daily process that identifies two to three potentially scalable opportunities each week, or focused "nail-and-bail" session trades.

Pump-Coil-Dump and Dump-Coil-Pump Templates.
 
Lessons from Mentors with Centuries of Experience
This approach draws on instruction received over the years from mentors including Peter Brandt, Edwards and Magee, Richard Schabacker, Bill McLaren, Brent Penfold, and Stuart Moore. Collectively these individuals represent more than 300 years of real-life trading experience—much of it gained in the pits, on hand-drawn charts, and by executing orders over the phone to brokers. Nothing has changed. The same patterns that appeared 80 years ago appear today. There is nothing new in the markets, only new gurus and new suckers. 
» Being flat is a position. A difficult but necessary component for success is an extreme amount of patience, waiting and waiting for a pattern to become fully mature—and then the discipline to pull the trigger. There will always be another good set up—in fact, always much better set ups. « 
Peter Brandt on the Reality of Trading
Peter Brandt's writing crystallizes points many traders still struggle with. On page 8 of his book he states that trading is an upstream swim against human emotions and that consistently successful trading is a tough job—if it were easy, everyone would do it for a living. Successful speculation, he emphasizes, is mostly about managing risk; good traders view themselves first and foremost as risk managers.

» Good traders view themselves first
and foremost as risk managers. «
 
On page 16 he notes that successful market speculation is a craft requiring extensive, ongoing apprenticeship in the school of hard knocks. It must address many aspects of market behavior as well as self-knowledge and mastery. In the final sentence of that section he observes that the human factor is seldom mentioned in trading books, yet it is the single most important component of consistently profitable market operations.
 
The Only Question That Matters: What Is Your Edge?
The same cycles repeat in every market. The most useful question a trader can ask is: "What setup am I hunting?" There is nothing new. Traders are constantly snowballed with fairy tales from new gurus who appear every week. Markets do not change; they only do three things. The flood of conflicting information creates analysis paralysis.

» What setup am I hunting? «
 
Traders born after 2000 often lack sufficient market experience and are led to believe that trading every minute detail on tiny time frames is their edge. In reality they face information overload, take too many trades, over-leverage, and never trade meaningful size. Trading small accounts on 15-second charts may feel productive, but it is rarely scalable.
 
Charts themselves are not the be-all and end-all. They are simply a tool for managing risk, identifying an entry when an edge appears, and defining an area for taking profits. Classical charting principles supply entry, risk management, and a profit-extraction method. The critical question remains: What is your edge? What do you do that is simple, repeatable, and scalable? If you cannot answer that clearly, you are most likely stuck in the retail cycle of winning some, losing some, briefly believing you have "got it," then either damaging the account or remaining trapped in analysis paralysis. 

» It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.
Got that? My sitting tight! Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.
I found it one of the hardest things. «

Managing Yourself Between the Setups
You make money on the setups and on the days when it is easy to make money. That has nothing to do with personal brilliance or market magic; it comes from executing a clear process—entry, risk management, profit target—and then walking away. The daily battle is forcing yourself to stop taking random, impulsive, emotional, tape-reading, or pure price-action trades that fall outside your edge.

» Days when it is easy to make money. «

Doing something for a long time does not equal craftsmanship, performance, or discipline. What matters is daily attention to process, continuous improvement, and knowing what NOT to do. Once you recognize that the only real problem in trading is the person staring back from the mirror, the institutional behaviors that repeat across every market become visible. If your edge is not simple, repeatable, and scalable, trading may simply not be for you.

Nothing New: Classical Charting and Institutional Behavior

Peter Brandt remains a master craftsman anchored in half a century of real trading. He still works from daily, weekly, and monthly consolidations using classical charting principles. The same principles appear in Schabacker's work from the 1930s and in Edwards and Magee's "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" from the 1940s.  

Pump-Coil-Dump Template in the daily USDJPY, July 2026.

A practical weekly process narrows breakout trading to a daily signal and then looks for the intraday template (pump-coil-dump or dump-coil-pump) that sets up in a specific session. Institutions work from price levels. Algorithms, HFTs, quant desks, and order-flow all reference those levels. There is no need for invented candlestick names or elaborate fairy tales. Mark the first trading day of a new month and the high/low of the new week. Watch whether a breakout succeeds or fails. Look for the two templates—buy low or sell high—when they present. Six instruments on a watch list is enough; two or three quality opportunities in a week is the goal.
 
A text-book Schabacker, Edwards and Magee Bullish Rectangle breakout with
a small "cup-and-handle". Higher timeframes always dominate lower ones.
Toby Crabel's opening-range works, Paul Tudor Jones's observations on range expansion, and the classic rectangle consolidations described by Brandt all point to the same reality. Price is always in a box. A 100 percent expansion of a prior range is not Fibonacci mysticism; it is classical measurement. Highest closing price of the month, high-of-week level, and simple 50 percent retracements of a range are visible to anyone who looks. Nothing is hidden.
 
» Most successful investors, in fact, do nothing most of the time. I just wait until there
is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up.
I do nothing in the meantime. 
«

Discipline Over Instant Gratification
A friend who trades only reversals after 10:00 a.m. New York time (the third hour) demonstrates the power of a narrow, rinse-and-repeat edge. He does not chase every move; he waits for the same setup two or three times a week. That approach can produce "month money" from a single well-sized trade. Chasing algorithmic noise on tiny time frames is the retail trap that keeps traders small and inconsistent.

Trap-and-Shift Template: Institutional Behavior in the daily NASDAQ, July 2026.
 
Richard Dennis observed that you could publish the rules in a newspaper and almost no one would follow them. Consistency and the discipline to sit on your hands between high-probability setups are the real edge. Fifty-fifty coin-flip trades are losers; they are guesses. Capital is preserved for the infrequent moments when the market offers a clear, scalable opportunity.

The Trader Is the Only Variable
All markets will continue to do the same three things they have always done. If a method is simple, it can be repeated. If it has genuine edge, it can be scaled. Keep it simple. As Mark Douglas wrote, the goal is to create a state of mind that is unaffected by the market’s day-to-day behavior. That state begins with knowing exactly what you are hunting, executing it with discipline, and refusing to take the random trades that destroy accounts.
 

The Evolution of the Opening Range Breakout | Toby Crabel

My observations of markets through visual displays of data have led me to a simple conclusion: there are two primary forces at work. One is momentum, which includes the opening range breakout (ORB). The other is mean reversion, which at times can even involve trading in the opposite direction of the ORB.

The ORB concept should not be discarded, but it must be modified.
 
This has always been a useful way to think about markets. But over time, I have come to appreciate that there are many nuances and additional conceptual frameworks that continue to refine this view. After more than 50 years of trading, one thing is clear: all ideas are subject to revision. Flexibility is required. I do not discard the original intellectual structures when changes are necessary. Instead, the framework evolves and, ideally, strengthens as markets change.
 
The Impact of Electronic Markets
One of the most important revisions to the concept of the opening range breakout came with the transition to electronic trading and nearly continuous global markets. The primary session open no longer carries the same significance it once did. That moment used to concentrate liquidity and information. Today, that effect has been diluted. The concept should not be discarded, but it must be modified.
 
Diminishing ORB Annual Sharpe Ratio 1923-2025.
 
Modifications to the ORB Framework
Over time, several adjustments have proven useful when thinking about ORB and momentum more broadly.
1. Simplifying Entry
In my 1989 book, the entry logic for moves off the open was more complicated than necessary. A simpler approach is to use a percentage of an n-day average range. The exact percentage and lookback period will vary by market and should be explored. Different markets require different thresholds.
 
2. Expanding Reference Points
There are now many valid reference points beyond the open. In some cases, they may be more relevant. Regional closes, or moves of a certain magnitude from any price level, can serve as useful anchors. Observation should guide testing.
 
3. Time of Day
Time of day remains a critical factor. There was once a multi-billion-dollar firm that used the open to 11:00 EST as a primary directional signal. If markets moved consistently in one direction during that window, positions were held over multiple days. That specific behavior has changed, but the broader concept remains. Other periods during the day may now carry similar importance and should be part of the research.
 
4. Day of the Week
Day-of-week effects also deserve attention. Yale Hirsch did extensive work in this area, now continued through The Stock Market Almanac. We have observed, for example, that a gap lower on a Monday can be a dangerous place to initiate short positions. Conversely, momentum later in the week can be quite powerful when markets are active. These tendencies are probabilistic and evolve over time, but they appear to reflect persistent behavioral patterns tied to the structure of the trading week.
 
5. Magnitude and Price Action
The magnitude of the move off the open, along with the nature of the price action, is essential. For discretionary traders, this is critical. To the extent these ideas can be formalized, systematic approaches can benefit as well.
 
6. Prior Market Behavior
The behavior of prior days has a meaningful impact on ORB outcomes. Arthur Merrill's work on simple price patterns, some of which I included in my 1989 book, still has relevance today. These patterns can serve as useful supporting indicators when evaluating momentum.
A Long-Term Perspective on ORB
Below is a basic test of an opening range breakout strategy in its raw form. The system enters at 0.80 time the 10-day average range, with no stops or profit targets, and exits on the next day’s open. While simple, it provides a useful baseline.
 
The study spans more than 100 years, beginning with a single market (wheat) and expanding as additional markets became available. What stands out is a gradual decline in both dollars per contract and Sharpe ratio over time. This reflects a broader reality: markets evolve, and edges tend to diminish.
 
Interpreting the Data
Markets in the study are equally weighted as new ones are added. This is not realistic for large-scale trading, where position sizing must be adjusted, but it is sufficient for understanding long-term behavior.

» No edge remains static. Markets evolve«
 
The tables include: number of contracts traded, total profit, percentage return, dollars per contract, maximum drawdown, return-to-drawdown ratio, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, standard deviation, trades per year, number of marketsTotals are provided at the bottom.
 
Final Thought
The most important lesson is not the strategy itself. It is that no edge remains static. Markets evolve. What worked in one regime will weaken in another. The advantage comes from continuing to observe, test, and adapt.
 
Quoted from:

Smart Money Goes Extreme Long on Bitcoin Futures | Tom McClellan

Bitcoin futures were first included in the weekly COT Report in 2017, and were quiet early on. In most futures, the "commercial" traders are the smart money, but in Bitcoin few traders qualify as producing or using the subject commodity in their trade or business. 
 
 
So the large speculators in the non-commercial category take over the role as the smart money. These traders are net long now in a huge way. You can see in the chart what prior big net long positions have meant afterward for prices.
The red line on the chart shows the net short position of non-commercial traders (large speculators) in CME Bitcoin futures, drawn directly from the CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report. It is calculated by taking the total number of short contracts held by those non-commercial traders and subtracting the total number of long contracts they hold. The resulting figure is positive when the group is net short and negative when it is net long—the deep negative readings visible on the chart therefore indicate an unusually large net-long stance. Spreading positions are reported separately in the COT data and are excluded from this net calculation. The underlying numbers reflect open interest as of each Tuesday and are released by the CFTC the following Friday.

Biggest Nasdaq Futures Short in History

Asset Managers and Hedge Funds have now built the largest Nasdaq Futures short position in history. According to the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders reports—the weekly breakdown of futures open interest by trader category released each Friday based on the prior Tuesday’s data—they stand at a record net short in Nasdaq 100 futures.
 

Positioning has dropped sharply into negative territory through 2026, reaching roughly –$18 billion to –$21 billion when combining the Asset Manager/Institutional and Leveraged Funds categories tracked in the Traders in Financial Futures reportsOn the 2020–2026 chart the red positioning line has plunged to its lowest point while the black NDX index line continues to trade near record highs, underscoring a striking divergence after the substantial long positions these same groups held throughout 2025.
COT reports classify large futures traders mainly via the Legacy format into Commercials (hedgers managing business/physical risk), Non-Commercials (large profit-seeking speculators such as hedge funds and CTAs), and Non-Reportables (small traders below thresholds); the Disaggregated version further splits these into Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap Dealers, Managed Money, and Other Reportables for physical commodities, while the Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) report uses Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side), Asset Manager/Institutional (pensions, mutual funds), Leveraged Funds (hedge funds/CTAs), and Other Reportables for financial contracts.

In the context of the MacroCharts NDX chart above, the red line tracks combined net futures positioning of the TFF report’s Asset Manager/Institutional (pensions, mutual funds, insurers) and Leveraged Funds (hedge funds, CTAs) categories—precisely the “Asset Managers & Hedge Funds” group shown—where net position equals longs minus shorts (positive = net long, negative = net short). Extremes, especially a record net short while the black NDX price line sits near highs, are often read as crowded positioning that can act as a contrarian signal, raising the odds of short-covering rallies if the shorts are forced to unwind.

Japan's Yen Collapse Threatens to Drag the US Down With It | Alex Krainer

In March 2022, while the yen was trading around 115 to the US dollar, I wrote that the "yen will burn to a crisp over the coming years." Four+ years (and numerous interventions) later, it takes 159.2 yen to buy one dollar, the weakest it’s been in 40 years, which is amplifying Japan’s rampant inflationary pressures. If the oil prices continue to rise, which seems likely, and if the yen continues to fall, which also seems likely, Japan could find itself in a disastrous double jeopardy.
 
» The predictable disintegration of Japan's fiscal and economic position is now all but inevitable. Japanese Government Bonds will collapse. The unraveling could resemble what Germany had experienced 100 years ago. «
Namely, Japan has to import about 3 million barrels of crude oil per day which, at current prices, is well in excess of $250 million/day, settled in US dollars. The higher the oil price goes, the greater Japan's demand for US dollars, and the greater the downward pressure on the yen. The lower the yen, and the higher the prices of oil and other imported goods, the more inflation Japan imports via its US dollar oil purchases.
US Sovereign Liquidity Strain: Facing weak demand that pushed 30-year yields to a 16-year high of 5.33%, the US Treasury doubled its liquidity buybacks of 10-, 20-, and 30-year bonds from $2 billion to over $4 billion per operation. By issuing short-term debt to repurchase long-term debt, the Treasury temporarily suppressed yields by 9–10 basis points.
Aggressive Japanese Capital Flight: Japan, the largest foreign holder of US debt, liquidated $26.4 billion in Treasuries in June alone (bringing holdings to $1.117 trillion) to raise funds to defend the falling yen.

Failing Currency Interventions: Despite joint US-Japan interventions pulling the yen back from 40-year lows near 164, the currency quickly erased over half those gains to trade above 159, pressuring the Bank of Japan to prepare further sales.

Systemic Risk: The alignment of Japan selling US debt to protect its currency alongside the US acting as the buyer of last resort for its own bonds indicates deep structural friction in global debt markets, deferring broader volatility across equities, real estate, and fixed income. 
Raising rates is not an option
Ordinarily, when they wish to strengthen their currency, central bankers raise interest rates. That would make Japanese financial assets more attractive to global investors, which would boost the demand for and purchases of yen. But the Bank of Japan (BOJ) can hardly afford to do that, given that it would bankrupt the Japanese government, which is leading the developed world in terms of debt-to-GDP, which currently stands at around 240%.

» As inflation accelerates, the Nikkei could continue to soar. However, the nominal gains in stocks will be more than offset by their losses in yen, still leaving investors with close to total losses in real terms. «
 Nikkei (weekly candles), July 2022 to August 2026.
Raising interest rates would also crash Japan’s financial markets and with it, Japan’s pension funds. When the BOJ raised the interest rates by only 0.25% on 31 July 2024, the Nikkei collapsed by -12.4%—its worst one-day crash since the Kobe earthquake in 1987. Currently, Japan’s debt to GDP stands at around 240%.

Sustainable market manipulation?
The answer, probably, is yes, but not this week. Given that raising interest rates is unpalatable, Japan had the option of selling its $1.1+ hoard of US Treasuries and using the proceeds to buy and prop up the yen. In fact, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama was anxious enough about her government's fiscal position that on July 10 she explicitly encouraged Japanese households and pension funds "to increase their investments in Japanese financial assets."

But selling US investments to buy Japanese assets would put further pressure on US interest rates, putting a squeeze on the US Government which is already in a massive fiscal bind. In fact, the US Government can be so sensitive about foreign governments selling their Treasury debt that they can regard it as an act of war. Accordingly, Ms. Katayama quickly backpedaled from her cunning plan. Instead, the US and Japan together coordinated an intervention to support the yen and relieve Japan’s inflationary pressure.
 
» The reason why even real assets turn worthless is that inflation 
indiscriminately annihilates the purchasing power in an economy.
 « 
The Economics of Inflation. 
Basis for all curves: January 1922 = 100. 
In late July, the US coordinated market operations with Japan to support the yen, which have been somewhat successful: they knocked the yen back up from its 40-year low of 164 yen to the dollar to below 156. Since then, however, the yen fell back to just under 160 yen/USD, where it is trading today.

Even when governments do it, currency rate manipulations ultimately fail: they buy a temporary respite from the accelerating collapse, but they cannot reverse the decline as they leave the structural causes of the financial imbalances intact. In the end, I believe that the yen will indeed burn to a crisp (as will the euro and the British pound) and that Japan will ultimately drag the United States with it.

We'll know it when it happens
Unfortunately, predicting the timing of all these events is out of the question. Note, my original article about Japan being the harbinger of bad things to come is over 16 years old, and its predictions are yet to unfold in full. US/Japanese joint yen rescue operation may not be over yet. Further efforts to boost the yen could be successful, especially if they trigger large-scale short covering in the markets.

Namely, global investors and traders have accumulated the largest short position on record against the yen. Panicked short-covering could give another boost to the yen in the near term, but in the end, the predictable disintegration of Japan's fiscal and economic position is now all but inevitable.

What happens next
Reiterating my earlier prediction with relation to this crisis, we can make three predictions about Japan’s economy:

We'll see a period of stagflation (inflation+recession), the inflation part could ultimately morph into hyperinflation;
Interest rates will continue to rise, and the price of Japanese Government Bonds will collapse. I believe that the unraveling could resemble what Germany had experienced 100 years ago;
The Nikkei could continue to rally (for now)—as currency and debt turn worthless, equities tend to go vertical as we saw in many cases through history, including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Argentina, Israel, and the Weimar Republic too.

Thus, as Japan's inflation accelerates, the Nikkei could continue to soar. However, the nominal gains in stocks will be more than offset by their losses in yen, still leaving investors with close to total losses in real terms. The reason why even real assets turn worthless is that inflation indiscriminately annihilates the purchasing power in an economy. When everyone’s purchasing power converges on zero, we really get the great reset: owning nothing minus being happy.
 
Quoted from: