Best Six-Month Stretch for the S&P 500 Begins in November | Ryan Detrick

November through April has historically been the Best Six-Month Stretch, rising 77% of the time for an average gain of +7.1%.

 Best Six Months of the Year.

May through October has historically been the 'Worst Six Months,' rising only 65% of the time, for an average loss of -1.7%. However, this year, investors who "sold in May and went away" missed out on +15.6%, making it one of the strongest 'Worst Six Months.' since 1950. When the S&P 500 rises double digits during its 'Worst Six Months,' the following year has been higher 91% of the time, for an average gain of +13.2%.  

 

We found 11 other times stocks gained double digits from May through October and the next six months did even better, gaining 10 times and up 13.2% on average, well above the 7.1% average seen in all years.

 

November is historically the Best Month of the Year.

 

November is historically a very strong month for stocks. The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% in November? 2008. It has been higher 11 of the past 12 years. Best month since 1950, the past decade, and in an election year. The second best month the past 20 years (only July is better).

November, December, and January are historically the Best Three Months of the year for stocks.

Best Three Months of the Year.

The S&P 500 might be up six months in a row soon, but October still has a few more days. But it is already officially up five months in a row. Historically, the year after a five-month win streak the S&P 500 has been higher 28 out of 29 times and up more than 10% on average. 

 

 The fun doesn’t stop just yet, as when stocks gain ten of eleven months (like now) they are higher a year later nine out of ten times and up nearly 15% on average. In other words, this blast of strength we’ve seen isn’t a reason to turn bearish. In fact, it might be a reason to remain in the glass half full camp as we head into 2025.

 

 Up 10 of 11 Months Is Also Bullish.

 

We might be past the beginning of the bull market, but by no means does that mean it is done. Going back 50 years, we found there were five other bull markets that made it past their second birthday. Wouldn’t you know it, the worst any of them did was lasting another three years (which happened twice). 

 

Meanwhile, the average bull lasted eight years and gained 288% when all was said and done. No one knows how long this bull will last, but the bottom line is history says be open to this bull market lasting much longer than probably most expect.
 

 

 

Meanwhile, the average bull lasted eight years and gained 288% when all was said and done. No one knows how long this bull will last, but the bottom line is history says be open to this bull market lasting much longer than probably most expect.

Reference:

Ryan Detrick (October 29, 2024) - Seven Reasons This Bull Market Is Alive and Well.
Ryan Detrick (October 28, 2024) - The Best Six Months of the Year Are Here.

Cosmic Cluster Days | November 2024

Cosmic Cluster Day  |   Composite Line  |  Cosmic Noise Channel

○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon

Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not exhibit a consistent polarity or directional bias. However, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows—also within the 'noise channel'—may correlate with or coincide with market movements and reversals. For previous CCDs, click HERE. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation methods, click HERE. See also:

 

 Seasonality.

 Sensitive Degrees of the Sun. 

 Geocentric Bradley Barometer.

 Monthly Astro Calendar.

 Lunation Cycle.

 Chinese 24 Solar Terms.

  SoLunar Rhythm (Rick Taylor's PrimeTimes).

 

  SoLunar Rhythm (BassMaster).

The Truth About American Freedom and Democracy | Shahid Bolsen

As an American, we grew up with a constant drumbeat telling us what a great country America is because it's so free and boasts so many freedoms. This is the ultimate example of a misconception: America, the land of the free. This phrase is completely meaningless. Ask an American what they mean by freedom. What do you mean by the freedom you have that others don’t? The average American citizen has less freedom than any random villager in Indonesia or Ghana or anywhere else in the Global South.

» What do you mean by the freedom you have that others don’t? «

What freedom are you even talking about? Most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. For many, missing even one paycheck means being thrown out onto the street. That’s the reality. You don’t just have one master in America when it comes to your slavery. We talk about debt slavery, wage slavery, and so on. Your employer is your master. Your student loan officer is your master. Your landlord is your master. The credit card bureau is your master. Your mortgage loan officer is your master. Your insurance adjuster, your Health Maintenance Organization, the Internal Revenue Service, your credit card company—they are all your masters. In America, you are a slave with many masters, and they all have their chains on you, each with their own lash to use on your back. So what freedom do you have?

 

» In America, you are a slave with many masters. «

You have more laws and regulations in America than in any other country in the world. The average American's daily life is governed, influenced, restricted, or determined by tens of thousands of laws and regulations—upwards of 50,000 to 100,000 rules at the municipal, state, and federal levels—not to mention the rules imposed by your employer. Most of these rules exist under the pretense of making society better and protecting you, but the truth, known by any American who is paying attention, is that these rules exist primarily to generate revenue for the enforcing bodies through fines and fees. That’s the real purpose behind most of these regulations. It's not about health, safety, or security; it is just about making money off you.

And in this so-called great democratic country, you have no say in how any of that money is spent. You have no say in how the funds collected from you are utilized. So I ask again: what freedom do you really have? What freedom is so special and unique? Honestly, none. Zero. There are no freedoms you have in America, that are not available elsewhere. And there are freedoms elsewhere that you do not have in America. But they constantly tell you how free you are, implying that every other country is an oppressive tyranny where no one can do anything. 

 

» And there are freedoms elsewhere that you do not have in America. «

Moreover, the overwhelming majority of Americans never leave the country, so they don’t even know what life is like anywhere else. Western civilization has never truly believed in freedom as the highest value. That’s the reality they don’t want you to know. It’s just part of the sales pitch to convince you how wonderful your society is. If you trace back to the alleged philosophical roots of Western civilization in ancient Greece, the philosophers they tout as inspiration—Aristotle, Plato—did not subscribe to this belief in unqualified freedom. The true foundation of Western thought has always been more authoritarian and classist than liberal and democratic. They prioritized order and the security of the status quo over liberty and freedom. They always believed in power being held by the elite. If you actually read these philosophers, whether they are Greek, Enlightenment thinkers, or the so-called founding fathers, you will see the lineage of thought behind the modern Western power structure. They sell the public an idea of freedom, but anyone with common sense knows that you can’t base an organized society solely on liberty and the so-called sovereignty of the individual.

 

» The entire democratic mechanism is designed to marginalize the population. «

Anyone who thinks about it for more than five seconds realizes this. How long would such a society even last? But the government and the power structure don’t even respect the population enough to tell you that. They don’t want you to understand the real system you live in. Instead, they tell you how free you are and indulge your fantasies because they perceive you as childlike. That’s why they don’t educate people properly. The level of idiocy imposed upon the public in America is astronomical. You might point to the freedom to criticize the government or to protest. But they only grant you the freedom to protest in a 'democracy' when they aren’t actually providing you with democracy. Think about it: why would you need to go out into the streets to demand change if you have a functioning democracy? If political mechanisms exist to meet your demands, why protest? Because your government ignores you. That’s why. Your freedom to protest and to criticize the government just means you have the freedom not to be listened to. In fact, democracies have perfected the exclusion of the population from policy-making decisions. The entire democratic mechanism is designed to marginalize the population.

 » Anyone who thinks about it for more than five seconds realizes this. «

Right now, they have you focused on the election, thinking about who will win, who to vote for, or who to vote against, while real power is completely removed from that process. They have distracted you from where real power lies because they have convinced you how free and democratic your society is, which, in practical terms, means you have no power whatsoever. You have no voice. That is why it doesn’t matter when you protest in the street; it matters no more than casting a vote in a ballot box. Both actions hold equal significance regarding policy outcomes. It starts from the misconception that your so-called civilization ever believed in freedom, liberty, and democracy. Those who rule over you never believed in that for a moment. What you have is the system they intended you to have—a system where power is held by the elite and the population is completely disempowered.

Quoted from:
Shahid Bolsen (October 26, 2024) - They Never Intended For You To Be Free. (video)

 

 What a spectacle.

Hidden Signs and Obvious Clues | Janet Yellen

The moment United States Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen uttered the phrase "the dollar is the world's reserve currency", the coat of arms of the US Treasury Department fell off her lectern and crashed to the ground.

October 22, 2024.

S&P Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update | Steve Miller

The upcoming week marks the pre-election period, where heightened election anxiety and a significant earnings schedule are expected to drive high volatility. This trend is likely to continue through election day. Historical analysis shows that the September to November timeframe has often been associated with increased risk, frequently leading to substantial market corrections.

 

SPY (weekly bars), the MACD, and the extreme stretch between the 13-week and 89-week 

moving averages, which historically always leads to extended corrections.

 

Stocks have demonstrated remarkable resilience, displaying behavior that can be characterized as extreme. The above weekly chart of the SPY highlights this dynamic, tracking the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) alongside the distance between the 13-week and 89-week moving averages. Currently, the MACD indicates an unusually wide gap between these averages, suggesting a potential correction on the horizon.

 SPY (weekly bars), six-month cycles, three-month cycles.

When such corrections occur, they can be quite severe. Although the market has remained strong, November and December are anticipated to experience downturns due to the current extremes, which could lead to several challenging weeks ahead. Nevertheless, broader analysis suggests that the bull market may extend into 2025 before facing a significant downturn, potentially resulting in years of low or negative returns in the stock market.

 SPY (daily bars) and 21-trading day cycles with projected ideal troughs around 

November 6 (Wed) and December 4 (Wed), with a margin of ±3 trading days.

An examination of the SPY across various timeframes, including weekly and two-hour metrics, reveals a deterioration in the two-hour indicators, often the first sign of an impending correction. Historical examples, such as the market's reaction following the 2016 Trump election, highlight the potential for volatility. On that occasion, the Dow fell nearly 800 points before rebounding. Similar large movements are anticipated in the days leading up to and following this forthcoming election. While signs of a downturn have been expected for weeks, the market continues to set the course, underscoring its ultimate authority.

Reference:
Steve Miller (October 25, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update (video)

 

 

Hurst Cycles in the S&P 500 — David Hickson, October 9, 2024.

Halloween Trading Strategy Begins Next Week | Jeff Hirsch

Next week provides a special short-term seasonal opportunity, one of the most consistent of the year. The last 4 trading days of October and the first 3 trading days of November have a stellar record the last 30 years. From the tables below:

     S&P 500: Up 25 of last 30 years, average gain 1.96%, median gain 1.61%.
     NASDAQ: Up 25 of last 30 years, average gain 2.43%, median gain 2.29%.

     DJIA: Up 24 of last 30 years, average gain 1.95%, median gain 1.39%.
     Russell 2000: Up 23 of last 30 years, average gain 2.34%, median gain 2.56%.

Many refer to our "Best Six Months Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy" as the "Halloween Indicator" or "Halloween Strategy" and of course “Sell in May”. These catch phrases highlight our discovery that was first published in 1986 in the 1987 Stock Trader’s Almanac that most of the market’s gains have been made from October 31 to April 30, while the market, on average, tends to go sideways to down from May through October.

Since issuing our Seasonal MACD Buy signal for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000, on October 11, 2024, we have been moving into new long trades targeting seasonal strength in various sectors of the market via ETFs and a basket of new stock ideas. The above 7-day span is one specific period of strength during the “Best Months.” Plenty of time remains to take advantage of seasonal strength.

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 24, 2024) - Halloween Trading Strategy Treat Begins Next Week. 

 

 Election-Year Octoberphobia — Jeff Hirsch, October 9, 2024. 

 

 November Performance in “All Years” (1930-2015) and “Election Years” (1932-2012) 

— Jeff Hirsch, November 15, 2016.

 November Market Performance (2001-2021) — Jeff Hirsch,  October 20, 2022.

 

October 28th has, on average since 1950, been the strongest day of the year.
 

 

 S&P 500 average Performance per Day & Day by Day Hit Rate (1928-2024).

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for Q4 of the Election Year 2024
- Presidential Cycle in line with the Decennial Cycle.
 

The Cycle Composite for 2024 combines the 1-year, 4-year, and 10-year cycles. 

Trends are more important than levels. —  Ned Davis Research, October 15, 2024.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars) and current 21-Trading Day Cycle ( ± 3 TD).

 

ooooOoooo

 

Goldman Sachs' technical strategist Scott Rubner indicates that US stocks are entering a favorable trading environment due to capital flow trends. He expects the quiet period for stock repurchases to end on October 25, with listed companies likely to engage in significant buybacks in November and December, estimated at $6 billion per day, accounting for 21.1% of annual buybacks.

As mutual funds, the largest sellers of US stocks, begin to withdraw before Halloween, this may positively impact stock prices. October marks the end of the fiscal year for most mutual funds, potentially leading to sell-offs of underperforming assets for tax reasons. Rubner noted that all 756 mutual funds, valued at $1.853 trillion, end their fiscal year on October 31, 2024. Historically, American households increase stock purchases in November, with capital inflows into mutual funds and ETFs peaking during this month.

 In Q4 2024, the NASDAQ may gain more than double what the S&P gains.

Looking ahead to the US election, Rubner suggests that post-election, market volatility may reset, benefiting various trading strategies. Additionally, strong non-farm payroll growth and shifting inflation expectations are becoming critical market factors, particularly regarding a potential Trump election victory, which may reignite trading interest.

By end of 2024, S&P far above 6,000 —  Scott Rubner, October 15, 2024.

 

See also:
Steve Miller (October 25, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update (video)

S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections | Steve Miller

SPX (monthly bars)

SPY (weekly bars)

SPY (daily bars)

SPX (daily bars): ideal 21 Trading Day cycle trough November 6 (Wed) ± 3 days.

VIX (daily bars)

Looking at weekly, daily, and intraday charts, our proprietary indicators indicate a strong bullish sentiment, with the SPY, and QQQ showing very bullish trends. While corrections are often anticipated, the market conditions do not suggest a need to short at this time. The S&P weekly chart remains strong, showing no signs of a peak yet. Although historical valuations are high, there is currently no indication of an impending downturn.

However, we also need to consider potential downside projections. While the market is currently strong, indicators and cycles suggest that we should be cautious as we approach the election period. We anticipate a pullback of approximately 6-10%, with the potential to reach new highs afterward. While cyclical patterns indicate possible declines in Q3 or Q4, our analysis suggests that major corrections might be more pronounced in November or December.

We are experiencing an elevated VIX during a strong market, likely due to geopolitical tensions and the upcoming elections. Historically, such an elevated VIX during bullish trends raises questions about potential market peaks and whether investors are hedging against upcoming volatility. The cycles suggest that implied volatilities might rise sharply post-election, possibly reaching the mid-30s or higher.

Reference:

Steve Miller (October 19, 2024) - US Stock Market - S&P 500 SPY | Price Projections & Timing | Cycle and Chart Analysis. (video)

S&P Performance After Back-to-Back Double-Digit Years │ Wayne Whaley

The S&P was up 24.23% in 2023 and, as of October 19th, is up 22.95% in 2024. Barring a 10% correction in the last two months of this year, the S&P is positioned to post back-to-back double-digit years for the 25th time since 1930, which is the starting point of my S&P database.

 

Since 1930, the S&P has had 65 winning years out of 95 (68.4%), with an average annual gain of 7.9%. After back-to-back double-digit years, it has recorded 13 wins and 11 losses, with an average annual gain of 2.9%. Notably, since 1950, January results have been 7-12, with the last four being negative. The nine prior cases highlighted in yellow represent post-election years, where the S&P was 4-5, with an average gain of 1.5%.

There have been three occasions of at least four consecutive double-digit years: 1942-1945, 1949-1952, and five consecutive years during the early phase of the technology revolution from 1995-1999. This does not include the eight consecutive positive years in the 1980s, of which six were double-digit gains. Therefore, there is precedent for the rally to continue, especially if one believes we are in the second chapter of the technology revolution, driven by advances in AI.

Wayne Whaley — October 19, 2024.  

Esoteric Trumpism │ Constantin von Hoffmeister

For his supporters, Donald Trump is a bulwark of traditionalism and a champion of ‘America First’. For his detractors, he is a disruptive, deceitful agent of chaos. But a more philosophical approach frames him as a key figure in an eldritch struggle with deep-seated forces of decay. Esoteric Trumpism is a profound, almost mystical interpretation of Donald Trump’s political journey, situating him not merely within the framework of contemporary politics but as a figure of cosmic and world-historical significance. This interpretation posits that Trump’s rise and continued influence reflect deeper metaphysical catalysts at play in the twilight of Western civilization, as predicted by the historiographer Oswald Spengler in the 1920s and 1930s.

» Trump’s significance lies not in the man but in the archetype he embodies. « 

According to Spengler’s cyclical theory of history, every great culture passes through stages of growth, flowering, and decline, ultimately transforming into a civilization. A civilization, in Spengler’s view, is the final, ossified stage of a culture – marked by materialism, a dystopian government apparatus, and stagnation – where the original creative spirit has faded. In this phase, democratic institutions begin to decay, leading to the rise of autocratic leaders, or Caesars, who assert their will as the last defenders of the civilization’s final flickers of vitality. Trump, in this narrative, appears as a Caesar of the West, struggling against the forces of chaos and entropy that threaten to engulf the remnants of the culture’s achievements. 

The Swamp, in the context of Esoteric Trumpism, eclipses its conventional political metaphor as a term for entrenched, secretive, and subversive agencies. Instead, it takes on a life of its own, representing a primordial, chthonic entity whose tentacles have reached into the heart of American power. This is no mere political quagmire – it is an ancient force, predating the Republic itself, fueled by what can only be described as eldritch energies. Trump’s wrestle against this dark presence is painted in Lovecraftian tones, where the stakes are not just electoral victories or policy changes but the very soul of the nation. His presidency becomes a metaphysical battle, with Trump cast as a modern hero who, like Spengler’s envisioned Caesars, refuses to capitulate to the rot that envelops his civilization. Each executive order, every political maneuver, is understood as an audacious attempt to dismantle this machinery of the Great Old Ones that has operated unseen for centuries. Trump’s defiance is portrayed as a courageous, almost tragic stand against the inevitable. He fights not for personal gain but to stave off the encroaching darkness that looms over the West.

» Regardless of financial strength, political power and knowledge of previous history life cycles, 

no empire leader has ever been able to prevent its supremacy from collapsing. «

[...] Trump’s economic nationalism and policies aimed at restoring American autarky – through tariffs, immigration controls, and the reduction of global dependencies – are emblematic of a dying civilization’s last effort to preserve itself. Spengler wrote that as civilizations enter their final stages, the state becomes primarily an economic object, with the competition for resources and sovereignty taking precedence over other concerns. Trump’s trade wars with China and his efforts to revive American industry are therefore not merely political strategies but the actions of a Caesar seeking to preserve his people’s material and cultural autonomy in the face of an encroaching global order. These actions reflect the Spenglerian picture of a civilization striving to maintain its vitality, even as it approaches its unstoppable downfall.

[...] Trump’s significance lies not in the man but in the archetype he embodies. The rise of such Caesarian leaders does not promise material success; their triumph is symbolic, not in policies but in their rebellion against a senile and rabid world order. Trumpism, even as Trump’s personal influence fades, will persist as a movement that channels the existential fears of a civilization in freefall, longing for a return to integrity and self-expression. The power of the archetype lies in its resonance with a people alienated by the deep state – Trump articulates their despair, even as his achievements remain modest. His role is to act as the last expression of Western vitality, not to reverse the downward spiral but to embody the final brave spirit of a people grasping for survival in a world disintegrating into frenzied insanity. 

 

Quoted from:

Constantin von Hoffmeister (October 19, 2024) - Why Donald Trump is a mystical figure of historic proportions. 

 

See also:
Constantin von Hoffmeister interviews Alexander Wolfheze (October 11, 2024) - Globus Horribilis. (video)

Strong NYSE Breadth Indicates Liquidity is Abundant | Tom McClellan

Strong NYSE breadth says liquidity is plentiful.

A higher number of advancing stocks suggests bullish sentiment, 

more declining stocks bearish sentiment.

Tom McClellan — October 16, 2024.  

"No need to fear S&P 500 new all-time highs … until they cease."

Jeff Hirsch — October 17, 2024.

A doomed empire in the grips of morons and criminals.

Unconfirmed Uptrend According to Dow Theory | Stephen Suttmeier

The current position of Dow Theory is an unconfirmed uptrend, or bull market, with new highs for the Industrials (DJIA) and a lack of new highs for the Transports (DJT). 

Until the Transports confirm the highs on the Industrials, this bearish non-confirmation signal for Dow Theory is a market risk.

Stephen Suttmeier — October 17, 2024.

S&P 500 Weekly High Expected October 21-22 | Robert Miner

E-mini S&P 500 weekly high probable by next week, ideally around October 21-22 (Mon-Tue). Followed by a 2-3 week correction. And Election Year Fall to Year End net bullish trend.

Robert Miner — October 16, 2024. 

 

On Monday, October 14, the net percentage of S&P 500 members hitting 52-week highs reached the highest level (22%) since March. Forward returns for the S&P 500 have consistently been positive after strong readings in net new highs.

 

 Bespoke — October 16, 2024.