"Cosmic Cycles of Global Conjuncture" & Outlook into 2035 | Vladimir A. Belkin

Vladimir Belkin's 2014 study "Cosmic Cycles of Global Conjuncture" (КОСМИЧЕСКИЕ ЦИКЛЫ МИРОВОЙ КОНЪЮНКТУРЫ) synthesized the interconnections between solar activity cycles and global economic fluctuations. Belkin posited a robust inverse relationship between peaks in solar activity—measured via Wolf sunspot numbers—and subsequent declines in world output and US GDP growth, drawing on the fields of Heliobiology and Helioeconomics. Employing correlation and lagged regression analyses over extended historical periods, he demonstrated cyclical alignments with Juglar (7–11 years) and Kitchin (3–5 years) business cycles to forecast economic deterioration in 2014–2015.

Chart 1 above ("Kitchin and Juglar cycles of world output as a function of solar activity, 1961–2013.") illustrates Kitchin and Juglar cycles in world output (1961–2013) against lagged solar activity. Dual axes show Wolf numbers (left, solid line) peaking inversely to output growth (right, dashed line, one-year lag), with visual mirroring and R² ≈ 0.99 in segments, confirming short-term solar-driven volatility.

Extending this, chart 2 ("Kitchin and Juglar cycles in US GDP as a function of solar activity, 1798–2013.") applies the same to US GDP (1798–2013), demonstrating remarkable persistence over two centuries. The inverse pattern—solar peaks followed by GDP troughs—spans industrial revolutions and institutional changes, with a correlation of –0.88, underscoring the robustness of heliobiological influences on economic history.

Chart 3 ("Strong inverse relationship between cycles of world output and cycles of solar activity.") depicts the strong inverse between normalized world output cycles and solar activity (1961–2013 extended), with Wolf numbers (solid) and lagged growth index (dashed) as near-mirror images. A correlation of –0.87 highlights how solar rises precipitate growth falls, validating Belkin's claim of solar activity as a primary cycle determinant.

Focusing on extrema, chart 4 ("Strong inverse relationship between monthly extremes in Wolf numbers and annual world-output growth with a one-year lag.") presents a scatter plot of monthly Wolf peaks (x-axis) against annual world growth one year later (y-axis, 1964–2009), with a downward-sloping regression (R² = 0.7597). Higher solar maxima predict deeper slowdowns, offering a precise metric for crisis intensity.

Chart 5 ("Strong inverse relationship between the long cycle of world output and the long cycle of monthly solar-activity maxima.") addresses long cycles, plotting world output growth around solar maxima years (1968–2000, black line) against average Wolf numbers. A stepwise decline in growth per successive maximum (correlation –0.85) reveals secular trends, where weakening solar cycles since 1968 coincide with diminishing global expansions.

Complementing the above charts, Table 1 quantifies post-maxima declines: for solar peaks in 1968, 1979, 1989, and 2000, world growth fell by –2.90%, –2.01%, –2.42%, and –2.19% within two years, respectively. Belkin projected –2.38% for 2013 (delayed Cycle 24), forecasting a 2014–2015 downturn to ~2.0% growth, aligning with emerging-market vulnerabilities.

Collectively, this substantiates high statistical significance, with lags explaining physiological delays (e.g., geomagnetic storms reducing blood flow by 32–40%, fostering pessimism). Methodologically, Belkin employed:

• Lagged correlation analysis: Economic growth is regressed against solar activity with a one-year lag, reflecting delayed physiological impacts (e.g., solar maxima precede growth troughs). 
• Cycle decomposition: Juglar and Kitchin cycles are isolated via smoothing and differencing, then overlaid on solar series to visualize inversions.
• Regression modeling: Scatter plots with fitted lines quantify relationships, reporting R² and correlation coefficients (e.g., –0.87 to –0.88 overall).
• Forecasting via extrapolation: Historical patterns inform projections, adjusted for NASA solar forecasts (e.g., delayed Cycle 24 peak in 2013–2014).

Applying Belkin’s methodology to current solar forecasts yields the following calibrated projections for 2025–2035:

• 2025–2026: Cycle 25’s prolonged maximum (SSN peak 160.8 in Oct 2024, extending to mid-2025) signals imminent slowdown via the lagged inverse correlation (r ≈ –0.87; chart 3); expect global GDP deceleration of 2.0–2.5% from 2024 levels to 1.5–2.0%, mirroring Table 1’s –2.38% post-peak drop, with initial geomagnetic volatility worsening emerging-market risks (as in Belkin’s 2013–2014 forecast).
• 2027–2030: Cycle 25 minimum (2029–2030) reverses the trend, producing upswings similar to post-minimum recoveries (charts 1 and 2); secular weakening (chart 5) moderates amplitude, but growth should accelerate to 3.5–4.5% by 2029, driven by solar quiescence and reduced crisis propensity.
• 2031–2035: Cycle 26 onset (2029–2032 start, moderate SSN max ~131–160 ca. 2040–2043) brings rising solar activity that erodes gains per the inverse linkage (chart 4, R² = 0.76), yielding 1–2% cumulative drag by 2035 and possible mild recession if the cycle exceeds forecasts; overall 2025–2035 average growth 2.5–3.0% (chart 5 declining envelope), contingent on astrophysical accuracy.

Solar-timing uncertainties (e.g., exact Cycle 26 start) require integration with endogenous models, and post-2025 validation will refine accuracy.

Reference:
Vladimir A. Belkin (2014) - Cosmic Cycles of Global Conjuncture.
(КОСМИЧЕСКИЕ ЦИКЛЫ МИРОВОЙ КОНЪЮНКТУРЫ).

Vladimir A. Belkin holds a Doctorate in Economic Sciences and is a leading research scientist at the Chelyabinsk Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Professor of Economics, Finance, and Accounting at the Chelyabinsk Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Renowned for pioneering helioeconomics, his extensive publications—over 90 since 2008—explore inverse correlations between solar activity cycles and global economic fluctuations, with recent works (up to 2025) analyzing GDP growth, US federal fund rates, and commodity prices.

See also:

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024)  - Economic Crises and Solar Activity Extrema: Calculation of the Fall in the World GDP Growth in 2025. 

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - Strong Inverse Correlation between Ap Index and Gold Price. 

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - 2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity.   

Aleksander Valkov (2025) - Helioeconomics: Solar Cycles as the Hidden Pacemaker of Global Economic Fluctuations.

Leonty Miroshnichenko (2023) - Kondratiev Waves Aligned with Solar Cycles.  

Tatiana Alexandrovna Zenchenko & Tamara Konstantinovna Breus (2021) - The Possible Effect of Space Weather Factors on Various Physiological Systems of the Human Organism.

A 2020 first-light video from the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope captures solar granulation at unprecedented 30 km resolution in 705 nm light, revealing convection cells approximately the size of Texas, where hot plasma rises in bright centers and sinks along dark intergranular lanes, driving surface heat transfer while tiny magnetic bright points channel energy to the million-degree corona. Amid Solar Cycle 25's heightened activity—having peaked in late 2024 with elevated sunspot numbers exceeding initial forecasts—such high-resolution observations continue to refine models of solar flares and space weather impacts. 

Helioeconomics: Solar Cycles & World Economic Rhythms | Aleksander Valkov

In his June 2025 working paper, Russian economist Aleksander Valkov, Head of the Department of National and World Economy at Moscow State University, introduces "helioeconomic theory"—a bold interdisciplinary framework asserting that long-term solar activity, specifically the approximately 11-year Schwabe sunspot cycle (measured via Wolf sunspot numbers), serves as a primary exogenous driver synchronizing global economic cycles across centuries and countries. 

HelioEconomic Leading Index (HELI) and Economic Cycles (1750–1900). 

 

HelioEconomic Leading Index (HELI) and Economic Cycles (1900-2050): 

Blue line: HELI Index (normalized, 0–1 scale); Black dashed line: Solar Cycle (Wolf number, 11-year harmonic); Red vertical dashed lines: Economic Peaks (1749, 1801, 1859, 1917, 1968, 2024); Green vertical dashed lines: Economic Bottoms (1775, 1833, 1889, 1944, 1996, 2045); X-axis: Years 1750-1900 and Years 1900-2050, in strict chronological order.

 

HelioEconomic Leading Index (HELI) for USA, Russia, China, and Great Britain (1900-2024).

Blue line: USA; Red line: Rusia; Green line: China; Brown line: Great Britain; Red vertical dashed line: Economic Peak; Green vertical dashed line: Economic Bottom. 

 

Rather than viewing economic expansions and contractions as purely the result of credit, technology, policy, or random shocks, Valkov argues that solar magnetic activity provides the underlying rhythm. He posits that every fifth solar maximum plants the seed for a major economic peak approximately five to ten years later, while solar minima trigger the deepest troughs. 

 

This pattern establishes a dominant approximately 55-year supercycle (roughly five Schwabe cycles) that has governed global economic turning points from pre-industrial 1750 through the industrial and modern eras, spanning diverse economies including the USA, UK, Russia, China on a panel of 12 major countries.

 

 

» These findings have important implications for economic theory, forecasting, and policy. «

 Next solar minimum (Cycle 25/26 transition) anticipated around 2030–2031.

 

Valkov posits that solar activity influences economies through four interconnected channels: 

 

The first channel involves biophysical and health effects: geomagnetic storms and solar radiation variations are argued to affect human health, melatonin levels, mood, and cognitive function, citing medical literature on increased depression, suicides, and risk aversion during periods of high solar activity. 

Second, technological disruptions are a growing concern in the modern era, as space weather impacts infrastructure, satellites, and power grids. 

Third, Valkov includes agricultural and climate channels through subtle influences on weather patterns and crop yields, though he acknowledges this is a weaker driver for the regular 11-year solar cycle. 

Finally, the psychological and behavioral channel is considered crucial, suggesting that collective mood shifts drive investor sentiment, risk-taking, and economic decisions, a concept that builds on research by Krivelyova and Cesare Robotti (2003) and similar studies. 

 

The key innovation of Valkov's work, however, is the proposed 55-year rhythm: every fifth solar maximum (a period of 54–60 years) marks a "super-peak" corresponding to major economic booms and the subsequent crises that occur when the underlying expansion ultimately overshoots.

Valkov's theory builds on earlier ideas from Jevons (1875), Chizhevsky (1924), Garcia-Mata (1934), and the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, but he elevates them with rigorous modern statistical methods and an extraordinary historical dataset covering twelve major economies, including the United States, United Kingdom, Russia, and China—both before and after industrialization.

 » The HELI index outperforms traditional leading indicators in predicting major economic turning points, offering

policymakers and analysts a new interdisciplinary tool for risk assessment and macroeconomic planning. « 

At the heart of Valkov's paper is the HelioEconomic Leading Index (HELI), a composite indicator that combines smoothed Wolf sunspot numbers (inverted and appropriately lagged) with macroeconomic variables such as unemployment rates, GDP growth, and industrial production. Spectral analysis, Granger causality tests, and principal component methods show that the HELI index explains approximately 78% of the variance in global business-cycle turning points over nearly three centuries—a level of explanatory power rarely achieved by conventional leading indicators.

The alignment is striking: Major economic peaks repeatedly occur near every fifth solar maximum (for example, the Roaring Twenties, the mid-1960s–early-1970s boom, and the 2014–2020 expansion), while the deepest depressions and recessions cluster around prolonged solar minima (the 1930s Great Depression, the early 1980s double-dip, and the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis all fit the pattern with remarkable precision).

The 11-year solar cycle is historically segmented into four distinct periods based on psychological excitability: Minimum (3 years), Growth (2 years), Maximum (3 years), and Decline (3 years).

» In each century, the universal cycle of historical events is repeated exactly 9 times. Throughout the world history of Mankind, beginning with 500 B.C. and until the present time, in each century I have discovered 9 clearly outlined concentrations of the initial moments of historical events. Thus, it can be considered that each cycle of the general historical, military or social activity of humanity is equal, on average, to 11 years. « 

Alexander L. Chizhevsky, 1924.

Valkov's long-term charts overlaying sunspot numbers with unemployment or industrial production in the US, UK, Russia, and China reveal an almost eerie synchronization that persists through wars, pandemics, gold standards, fiat currencies, and radically different political systems. Given that Solar Cycle 25 reached a stronger-than-expected maximum around 2024–2025, the HELI index indicates that the current global expansion has already peaked or is in its final stage.

  

» On average, the difference between the peaks and troughs of solar activity and economic cycles does not exceed six months. «

88% of recessions since the 1800s and 100% of major financial crises occurred during the downturn of sunspot cycles. 

Leonty Miroshnichenko, 2023.

 

The model forecasts an accelerating contraction phase leading into a major multicycle trough centered on the early 2030s—precisely the period when the next solar minimum is expected. Mainstream macroeconomics remains deeply skeptical of any strong exogenous pacemaker for business cycles, and critics will rightly point to risks of overfitting and the indirect nature of causal mechanisms. 

 

Yet, the sheer scope of the evidence—280 years, twelve diverse economies, consistent performance across radically different institutional regimes—makes the paper impossible to dismiss lightly. Whether helioeconomics ultimately gains broad acceptance or remains a heterodox curiosity, the HELI index has already demonstrated superior long-range forecasting ability compared with traditional indicators. 

 

Reference:
Aleksander Valkov (June 2025) - Helioeconomics: Solar Cycles as the Hidden Pacemaker of Global Economic Fluctuations.

 

See also:

Leonty Miroshnichenko (2023) - Kondratiev Waves Aligned with Solar Cycles. 

 Lifang Peng, Ning Li, and Jingwen Pan (2019) - Effect of Ap Index of Geomagnetic Activity on S&P 500 Stock Market Return.

Alexander L. Chizhevsky (December 14, 2025) - Mass Excitability during Solar Cycle 25 (2019–2030).

Latin America Facing the Storm: Rallying the Global Majority | Alexander Dugin

Trump is threatening to invade Venezuela, Colombia, and Mexico simultaneously under the pretext of fighting drug cartels. It looks like he is beginning his own “special military operation.” If he had chosen Canada and Greenland as his targets, that would deserve full support. That would be a blow against globalism. As it stands, it is pure imperialism, a direct intervention.

» We must all show what a global majority truly is. «

An attack on countries that clearly lean towards multipolarity is a blow against us—against greater humanity. Israel attacked Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, and Syria. And the Islamic world stayed silent, allowing it to happen. 

 

» Invade Canada, not Venezuela. «

 

Now the United States is preparing to invade three countries of Latin American civilization at once. If they follow the principle of each for itself, this will strengthen Western hegemony for a while longer. The countries of Latin America must unite and present an ultimatum to the United States. Right now, we must all—every BRICS country—show what a global majority truly is.

Quoted from:
Alexander Dugin (December 3, 2025) - Latin America Facing the Storm: Rallying the Global Majority.

 

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro yesterday,

dancing to changa-tronics in Caracas. 

» Suspend Sec. Hegseth and Admiral Bradley for their war crimes off the coast of Venezuela! «

 Col. Douglas Mcgregor, December 3, 2025.

 

See also:

Pepe Escobar (November 28, 2024) - Trump’s Coming War on BRICS and the Global South.

S&P 500 Now Declining into 18-Month Hurst Cycle Low | Ahmed Farghaly

Major asset classes (equities, metals, cryptos) are entering the final phase of their current 18-month cycles (beige-yellow in first chart below), with synchronized troughs expected from late January into early March 2026. 

S&P 500 / US Equities: The August 2024 trough is identified as the 54-month cycle low. The brief break beneath it in April 2025 is viewed as a false Trump—“Liberation Day”—Tariff straddle and the first 40-week/9-month cycle trough within the current 18-month cycle. Since that time, price action has built a clean sequence of 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, and 20-week cycles. 

S&P 500 (daily closes); 2020 to December 2025: The Big Picture. 

 

S&P 500 (daily bars); September to December 2025: Last stage of the 18-month cycle.

The current 20-day cycle (magenta) ideally bottoms on December 7 (Sun), and the 40-day cycle (red) on December 23 (Tue).

 

The market has completed the latest 80-day trough on November 21 (Fri) and has now entered the final 80-day cycle before the 18-month (beige-yellow) low, which is due around mid to late January 2026 (second chart above). A rally out of the 80-day cycle low into December, but without a new all-time high, was expected because the broken 20-week VTL typically marks the 40-week peak (see first chart). 

 

An early December high remains likely before a meaningful decline into the 18-month trough. This forthcoming weakness is regarded as a mid-cycle correction within the still-intact 54-month cycle upswing. Strong gains are projected for Q2–Q3 2026 as the new 18-month cycle rises.

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (December 1, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update: S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, CRB Index, Interest Rates, Bitcoin. (video)

Hurst Cycles in the CNN Fear & Greed Index.

See also:

Ahmed Farghaly (December 2, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update (S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, CRB Index, Interest rates, Bitcoin). 

David Hickson (December 1, 2025) - Bullish or Bearish? - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

High-Confidence Position Trading: Dow Jones Industrials

divided by Consumer Price Index, 1942 to 2025, and Forecast into 2037.

 

» A "straddle" is an analysis period that has its high above the FLD and its low below. «

(Cyclitec Cycles Course: Lesson 8, p. 8-14; Lesson 9, p. 9-11; Appendix C, Chart #47).

A "false straddle" is caused by an exogenous shock—an abrupt, unpredictable event originating outside the market's endogenous cyclic structure—that temporarily disrupts the established hierarchy of cycles, such as the March 2020 COVID-19 pandemic crash or the April 2025 announcement of Trump's global "Liberation Day” tariffs crash.