SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days

A Major Signal is triggered when the composite line breaks above the Average Cosmic Noise Channel; a Minor Signal when it breaks
to the downside. Both have equal forecasting capacities, but generate different sequences.

Lagging behind the Average Presidential Cycle

Credits: Almanac Trader. See also HERE

Is the Crude Oil Rally Doomed?

Frank Holmes - U.S. Global Investors (May 8, 2015) - This week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices reached a 2015 high, rising above $60 before cooling to just below that. This marks the eighth straight week of gains. Investment banking advisory firm Evercore makes the case that the recent oil recovery is closely following the average trajectory of six previous cycles between 1986 and 2009. Although no one can predict the future with full certainty, this is indeed constructive for prices as well as the industry.

Because oil remains in oversupply, the recent rally owes a lot to currency moves. The U.S. dollar, which has weighed heavily on commodities for around nine months, declined to its lowest point since mid-January. We might be seeing a dollar reset, which should finally give oil—not to mention gold, copper and other important commodities—much-needed breathing room.

The oil rig count continued to drop in April and is now at a five-year low. According to Baker Hughes, 976 rigs were still operating at the end of the month, down 11 percent from 1,100 in March and 47 percent from 1,835 in April 2014. Eleven closed this week alone. This spectacular plunge has had the obvious effect of curbing output and helping oil begin its recovery from a low of $44 per barrel in January. Production appears to have peaked in mid-March at 9.42 million barrels per day and is now showing signs of rolling over. 

A price reversal historically has occurred between six and nine months following a drop in the rig count. The number of rigs operating peaked in October and oil started to bottom in January.

Baker Hughes Oil rig count plunges to the lowest level since October 2010

The Saudis sent the market into a freefall in November when they decided to defend their market share
instead of propping up prices, and they show no sign of changing course.

The U.S. has almost 500 million barrels of crude oil in storage. That's by far the most oil in storage since record-keeping began in 1982.
Supplies have grown because of surging domestic production and restrictions on most crude exports.

"Brent Crude Oil price has most likely bottomed out!"
thinks Tiho of The Short Side Of Long

A sideways consolidation into late June is now likely.
Credits: www.equityclock.com

Inflation-Adjusted Dow Up 130% From 2009 Low

Chart of the Day (May 13, 2015) - As the Dow trades approximately 1% below all-time record highs, this chart provides some perspective by illustrating the inflation-adjusted Dow since 1900. There are several points of interest. Take for example an unlucky buy-and-hold investor that invested in the Dow right at the dot-com peak of December 1999. A decade and a half after the dot-com peak of December 1999, the Dow is up a mere 12%. On the other hand, the inflation-adjusted Dow is now up a significant 130% from its financial crisis lows in 2009.

S&P500 vs Maximum Elongation of Mercury

See also HERE

Shifted Eurodollar COT points to SPX Major High in August | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan (May 07, 2015): I do not know why it works to have the EuroDollars COT data shifted forward by a year to see what the SP500 will do.  But after seeing that it has worked for several years, at some point we stop wondering about the “why” question, and start to accept that there really is something working here.

I should emphasize that the relationship broke down during the Fed’s QE3, the $85 billion per month program of expanding the Fed’s balance sheet which started in September 2012 and then tapered down to nothing by October 2014.  During 2013 the once-nice leading indication seemed to be inverted for a while, and then the two plots got back into sync again starting in late 2013.  That was a frustrating time since I had come to trust its message so much when it was working well in 2011 and 2012. That just proves the point that no indicator is infallible, and one must continue to pay close attention to what is going on, just to make sure that everything is working as it is supposed to.

With the relationship back in sync now, it is appropriate to look ahead to a top due this summer, and some ugliness for stock prices this fall.  Ideally the top is due in early August, but there can be slight differences in the texture of the ED COT pattern and the actual behavior of the SP500. More HERE & HERE

The Forecaster | Martin Armstrong

This is a feature documentary about Martin Armstrong a financial mastermind who used the number pi in the nineties to predict economic turning points with precision. He was named economist of the decade. The Japanese just called him Mr. YEN. When the FBI stormed his offices in 1999 forcing him to hand over his secret model a few days later he was incarcerated without a trial. He was released from prison in 2011 and agreed to be the focal point of this movie - a piece on the Sovereign Debt Crisis we are facing. 

Starting at a very young age, Martin Armstrong displayed an entrepreneurial spirit and an analytical ability that were far too complicated for others. As a child he was already collecting coins, and before long he would be trading in gold. As an adult, he started the company Princeton Economics International. Based on a self-designed model, in which the mysterious number Pi plays an intrinsic role, he was able to calculate developments in the world economy. His predictions about stock crises or currency problems were eerily accurate, and he built up a clientele that consisted of powerful players in the global economy. More HERE & HERE & HERE

HERE

VIX vs Four Lunar Month Cycle

The projection of the 118 CD Cycle to a LOW in mid April contradicts the SoLunar Map.
According to the Delta Theory the upcoming 'red lunar cycle' is prone for inversions.
This may occur around the first lunar quarter (April 7).

W.D. Gann's Method of Timing with Solar Degrees

Around 1900 W.D. Gann developed a unique timing method not based on calendar days or trading days but on Solar Degrees (also known as Solar Degree Intervals, the movement of the Sun in one calendar day).

In the 1920s this became the first basic technique he taught his students: watch anniversary dates (360 solar degrees) with past market tops and bottoms for a change in trend. Gann also devised systems of counting off time in solar degrees from past market tops and bottoms in divisions of the year in halves, quarters, eighths and thirds (180, 90, 45 and 120 solar degrees). When clusters of time counts from past tops and bottoms highlighted a future date, that date was significant for a reversal of trend. Gann favored also numbers such 30, 45, 60, 90 etc. and square-numbers as 49, 144 and 216.

In 1909 he made his his famous and well documented wheat-call (HERE). He said, that if by the  end of the trading day of September 29th 1909, September wheat would not reach 1.20 $, then it would prove that there was something wrong with his method. On January 13,1909 wheat made a low at 930 $, on April 13 it reached a high at 1094 and reversed again into July 14 - both times 90 solar degrees apart. More info HERE & HERE & HERE

Calculated and charted with Gannalyst Pro

SoLunar Map for April - May 2015

More often than not a Low in this SoLunar Map is a High in the Stock Market and vice versa. Inversions occur. Upcoming turn-days are:
Mar 31 (Tue), Apr 04 (Sat), Apr 07 (Tue), Apr 11 (Sat), Apr 15 (Wed), Apr 19 (Sun), Apr 22 (Wed), Apr 26 (Sun), Apr 29 (Wed),
May 04 (Mon), May 07 (Thu), May 10 (Sun), May 14 (Thu), May 18 (Mon), May 22 (Fri), May 25 (Mon), May 29 (Fri), Jun 02 (Tue). 

 The SoLunar Map for February - March 2015 is HERE
 

DJIA vs Tidal Forces

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
For the methodology of the Turbo Cycles see HERE

RUT vs 180 Solar Degrees

Still true after the equinox? See also HERE

Keep Russia and Germany Separate and in Conflict | Prime US Objective

Plain and simple: HERE & HERE & HERE

In his speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, George Friedman, head of the private 'shadow CIA' Stratfor, outlined the prevention of a German-Russian alliance as the prime geopolitical U.S. foreign policy objective since 1871: "Keep Russia and Germany separate and in conflict."

"The German Question is now coming up again." Friedman's solution: "Cynical, not moral. But it works!", for the third time within a century.

Largest Geomagnetic Disturbances during Solar Cycle 24

HERE & HERE & HERE

Yesterday 28 solar storm warnings were reported from satellites watching the sun - a very rare event in just one day (HERE). The most powerful solar storm of the current solar cycle is currently reverberating around the globe. Initially triggered by the impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME) hitting our planet’s magnetosphere, a relatively mild geomagnetic storm erupted at around 04:30 UT, but it has since ramped-up to an impressive G4-class geomagnetic storm, priming high latitudes for some bright auroral displays. Further significant flare activity from Region 2297 is to be expected until it rotates off the visible disk on March 19th. This already caused the largest geomagnetic disturbances during the current solar cycle. 

Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market, a 2003 study of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, notes the following: Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all US stock market indices.  

When a solar flare or CME happens, it can take up to 2 days to impact the earth. Therefore, two days after a large solar flare we should see a drop in the stock market values for that day. More on the impact of such events on the financial markets and trading see also HERE.

SPX vs Mercury

2014-11-01 (Sat) = MER max Elong W 18.7°

2014-12-08 (Mon) = MER 000 SUN

2015-01-14 (Wed) = MER max Elong E 18.9°

2015-01-30 (Fri) = MER 000 SUN

2015-02-24 (Tue) = MER max Elong W 26.8°

2015-04-09 (Thu) = MER 000 SUN

2015-05-06 (Wed) = MER max Elong E 21.2°

2015-05-30 (Sat) = MER 000 SUN

2015-06-24 (Wed) = MER max Elong W 22.5°

2015-07-23 (Thu) = MER 000 SUN

2015-09-04 (Fri) = MER max Elong E 27.1°

2015-09-30 (Wed) = MER 000 SUN

2015-10-15 (Thu) = MER max Elong W 18.1°

2015-11-17 (Tue) = MER 000 SUN

2015-12-28 (Mon) = MER max Elong E 19.7°

2016-01-14 (Thu) = MER 000 SUN

2016-02-06 (Sat) = MER max Elong W 25.6°

Peaks in S&P 500 = 4.94% above 125 SMA

Reference: www.trendsby3.blogspot.com

SPX vs IMF

[...] I have determined the major and minor time factors which repeat in the history of nations, men and markets [...] In making my predictions I use geometry and mathematics, just as the astronomer does, based on immutable laws.

[...] My calculations are based on the cycle theory and on mathematical sequences. History repeats itself. That is what I have always contended, that in order to know and predict the future of anything you only have to look up what has happened in the past and get a correct base or starting point.

[...] In making my calculations on the stock market, or any future event, I get the past history and find out what cycle we are in and then predict the curve for the future, which is a repetition of past market movements [...] harmonic analysis, is the only thing that we can rely upon to ascertain the future.

W.D. Gann (1927): The Tunnel Thru The Air

SoLunar Map for February - March 2015

Usually a HIGH in this SoLunar Map is a LOW in the Stock Market and vice versa.
However, inversions occur.
Look back for clues at previous turns and what happended in the market 118 CD [= 4 lunar months],
354 CD [= 1 lunar year] and 1,416 CD [= 4 lunar years] ago.

Upcoming turn-days are:
Feb 07 (Sat), Feb 11 (Wed), Feb 15 (Sun), Feb 18 (Wed), Feb 22 (Sun), Feb 26 (Thu), Mar 02 (Mon),
Mar 05 (Thu), Mar 09 (Mon), Mar 13 (Fri), Mar 16 (Mon), Mar 20 (Fri), Mar 23 (Mon), Mar 27 (Fri), Mar 31 (Tue), Apr 04 (Sat).

See also HERE

SPX vs SoLunar Map (Sep 2014 - Jan 2015)

SPX 2015 vs 2007 (Similarity = 93%) and Turbo Cycles Composite Forecast

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
For the methodology see HERE and HERE

60 Year Cycle in SPX (Similarity = 92%)

Correlation of last 250 trading days with the SPX from Sep. 1954 to Sep. 1955.
Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. For the methodology see HERE

Source: Gann Global Financial, January 2015.

W.D. Gann (1936): Master Time Factor and Forecasting by Mathematical Rules, p. 218. See also HERE

Panic in the stockmarkets in fall 2015? See also HERE

Crude Oil breaking below 17-Year Support

Source: Chart of the Day

On January 7 the price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was a mere USD 48. The long-term trend of West Texas Intermediate crude that has largely traded within the confines of an upward sloping trend channel since the late 1990s. However, with the dramatic 55% plunge that began back in mid-2014, crude oil has now clearly broken below support (green line) of its 17-year trend channel - a significant turn of events (see chart at left).

Raj Times and Cycles pointed to a 50 Month Cycle due in June 2015, and the bias would be a Low and the Apex of the 2 year Triangle due in February 2016, which should be a major change in trend (see chart below). 

However, after a possible bounce back to USD 70, geopolitical circumstances could drive prices for WTI further down during the next two years to test the 2008 low at around USD 30 or even the 1998 low at around USD 10.

Source: Raj Times and Cycles

Plummeting Brent oil prices are putting pressure not only on Russia, Iran, Nigeria or Venezuela but also on North American shale, which has sunk hundreds of billions of dollars into investment, and could soon come crashing down.Tempted by big returns, shale companies have borrowed more than $200 billion in bonds and loans, from Wall Street and London, to cover development and projects that may not even come to fruition. Oil producers' debt since 2010 has increased more than 55 percent, and revenues have slowed, rising only 36 percent from September 2014, compared to 2010, according to the Wall Street Journal. Analysts believe North American shale needs to sell at USD 60-100 per barrel to break even on the billions of debt accrued by the energy companies. Indebted companies, fearing bankruptcy, may therefore be forced to keep selling oil, even at a loss (Source: WSJ).

DJIA 2014 vs 1997

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
For the methodology see HERE

www.sentimentrader.com

The Stock Trader's Almanac Blog presented December’s typical seasonal pattern pointing to a bottom in stocks this week, possibly Monday, followed by a strong up day and then a nice rally.

www.stocktradersalmanac.com

Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for DJIA | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan - Chart In Focus (December 11, 2014)

Tom McClellan recently presented a 10-year leading indication relationship between oil prices and the stock market, as shown in the above chart. The current oil price slide says that sometime around 2024 some type of “echo” in stock prices from this year’s oil price drop can be expected. 

Stock prices echoing oil price movements with a 10-year lag has “worked” for over 100 years and there is enough evidence to accept it, even if we cannot explain it. For now, the message of this leading indication is that the oil price rally from 1998 to 2008 has yet to see the full extent of its echo during the 2009-2018 period. While the current dip in oil prices is going to be bad for stock prices about 10 years from now, it is not really a problem for stock prices in real time. 

The following chart zooms into this correlation between the S&P500 and the Crude Oil Price shifted 10 years into the future and suggests the S&P500 would continue moving down next week, then up into end of December before forming a major low around January 6. Another rally into early July - with a correction from around March 20 to April 24 - should follow.