Peaks in S&P 500 = 4.94% above 125 SMA

Reference: www.trendsby3.blogspot.com

SoLunar Map for February - March 2015

Usually a HIGH in this SoLunar Map is a LOW in the Stock Market and vice versa.
However, inversions occur.
Look back for clues at previous turns and what happended in the market 118 CD [= 4 lunar months],
354 CD [= 1 lunar year] and 1,416 CD [= 4 lunar years] ago.

Upcoming turn-days are:
Feb 07 (Sat), Feb 11 (Wed), Feb 15 (Sun), Feb 18 (Wed), Feb 22 (Sun), Feb 26 (Thu), Mar 02 (Mon),
Mar 05 (Thu), Mar 09 (Mon), Mar 13 (Fri), Mar 16 (Mon), Mar 20 (Fri), Mar 23 (Mon), Mar 27 (Fri), Mar 31 (Tue), Apr 04 (Sat).

See also HERE

SPX vs SoLunar Map (Sep 2014 - Jan 2015)

SPX 2015 vs 2007 (Similarity = 93%) and Turbo Cycles Composite Forecast

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
For the methodology see HERE and HERE

60 Year Cycle in SPX (Similarity = 92%)

Correlation of last 250 trading days with the SPX from Sep. 1954 to Sep. 1955.
Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. For the methodology see HERE

Source: Gann Global Financial, January 2015.

W.D. Gann (1936): Master Time Factor and Forecasting by Mathematical Rules, p. 218. See also HERE

Panic in the stockmarkets in fall 2015? See also HERE

DJIA 2014 vs 1997

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
For the methodology see HERE

www.sentimentrader.com

The Stock Trader's Almanac Blog presented December’s typical seasonal pattern pointing to a bottom in stocks this week, possibly Monday, followed by a strong up day and then a nice rally.

www.stocktradersalmanac.com

Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for DJIA | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan - Chart In Focus (December 11, 2014)

Tom McClellan recently presented a 10-year leading indication relationship between oil prices and the stock market, as shown in the above chart. The current oil price slide says that sometime around 2024 some type of “echo” in stock prices from this year’s oil price drop can be expected. 

Stock prices echoing oil price movements with a 10-year lag has “worked” for over 100 years and there is enough evidence to accept it, even if we cannot explain it. For now, the message of this leading indication is that the oil price rally from 1998 to 2008 has yet to see the full extent of its echo during the 2009-2018 period. While the current dip in oil prices is going to be bad for stock prices about 10 years from now, it is not really a problem for stock prices in real time. 

The following chart zooms into this correlation between the S&P500 and the Crude Oil Price shifted 10 years into the future and suggests the S&P500 would continue moving down next week, then up into end of December before forming a major low around January 6. Another rally into early July - with a correction from around March 20 to April 24 - should follow.

2015 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA

HERE & HERE

Lance Roberts @ www.streettalklive.com

TheChartStore.com

Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 12 out of 18 times in the 4th year of every decade and the 5th year was by far the best year of the Decennial Pattern. The Dow Jones Industrial Average started in 1895 and since then 11 of the last 12 5th years were up and averaged a return of almost 22%. The exception from the pattern was 2005 when the DJIA lost 0.61%.

July 12, 2014 = Mercury’s Maximum Western Elongation + SuperMoon

Of all the planets Mercury is the smallest and closest to the Sun, and has a fast orbital period of 88 Earth days on average. Despite the small size and the slow 59-day-long rotation, Mercury has a significant magnetic field, strong enough to deflect the solar wind and to create a magnetosphere that can trap solar wind plasma. Mercury was a Roman god who travelled between the worlds of gods, humans and the dead. In astrology Mercury is generally associated with mental activities and faculties of the mind, and in astrofinance Mercury is the planet of trading, commerce, and intellect. However, seen from Earth, Mercury’s orbit around the Sun is 116 days on average (+/- 32 days). Also seen from Earth, it reaches a maximum Eastern and a maximum western elongation. These moments frequently coincide with a changes in trend in financial markets (see also HERE). 

On July 12, 2014 Mercury will reach the maximum western elongation on its orbit (HERE). On the same day there will be a SuperMoon (HERE) making a series of aspects to Pluto, Uranus, Saturn, Mars and Jupiter between July 11-12. This should have at least some short-term impact on the financial markets. On July 15 (Tue) both the geocentric and heliocentric Bradley Indices are at their highs of the year 2014 (HERE). Saturn is the Lord of Karma, and after 150 days of retrograde motion, will station direct on July 20 (Sun). Uranus is the Lord of the unpredictable, revolution, and progression and will turn retrograde the next day, July 21 (Mon). Ray Merriman remarks on this period: "Equity markets are prone to upheavals during such bouts of cosmic thunder."

Moon and Stocks - The Four Lunar Month Cycle

Markets repeat directly or inversely somewhere between (+/- 2 days) the 4 Lunar Month Cycle (118.12 Days)
and the average synodic period of Mercury (116.88 Days). More on the Delta Phenomenon HERE - Please note:
Inversions of polarity oftentimes occur +/- 2 weeks around equinoxes and solstices (HERE)

SP500 and VIX - Intermediate Term Delta Projections

See also HERE

Looks like the February 5 Low was a 10 Week Cycle Low

DJIA 2014 vs 2004

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.

U.S. Stocks in 5th strongest and 6th longest Bull Cycle since 1900

The bull market since March 2009 is the 22nd bull cycle since 1900. End of December 2013 it was in its 57th month. This is about the length of the current sunspot cycle 24. The ongoing bull market is now also the 6th longest bull cycle and with a performance of 154% (closing December 31st) the 5th strongest since 1900. 

SoLunar Tidal Forces 2014

[Eastern Standard Time (EST) -0500 UTC]

2013-12-26 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-01-01 (Wed) = SuperNewMoon = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-01-04 (Sat) = Earth @ Perihelion

2014-01-07 (Tue) = 1st Quarter

2014-01-09 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-01-15 (Wed) = Full Moon + Moon @ Apogee

2014-01-16 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-01-23 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-01-24 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter

2014-01-30 (Thu) = SuperNewMoon = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-02-06 (Thu) = 1st Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-02-12 (Wed) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-02-14 (Fri) = Full Moon

2014-02-20 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-02-22 (Sat) = 3rd Quarter

2014-02-27 (Thu) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-03-01 (Sat) = New Moon

2014-03-06 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-03-08 (Sat) = 1st Quarter

2014-03-11 (Tue) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-03-16 (Sun) = Full Moon

2014-03-20 (Thu) = Equinox + Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-03-23 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter

2014-03-27 (Thu) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-03-30 (Sun) = New Moon

2014-04-03 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-04-07 (Mon) = 1st Quarter

2014-04-08 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-04-15 (Tue) = Full Moon = Lunar Eclipse

2014-04-16 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-04-22 (Tue) = 3rd Quarter + Moon @ Perigee

2014-04-23 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-04-29 (Tue) = New Moon = Solar Eclipse

2014-04-30 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-05-06 (Tue) = 1st Quarter + Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-05-13 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-05-14 (Wed) = Full Moon

2014-05-18 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-05-21 (Wed) = 3rd Quarter

2014-05-26 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-05-28 (Wed) = New Moon

2014-06-02 (Mon) = Moon @ Apogee

2014-06-03 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-06-05 (Thu) = 1st Quarter

2014-06-10 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-06-12 (Thu) = Full Moon

2014-06-14 (Sat) = Moon @ Perigee

2014-06-15 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-06-19 (Thu) = 3rd Quarter

2014-06-21 (Sat) = Solstice

2014-06-22 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-06-27 (Fri) = New Moon

2014-06-30 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-06-30 (Mon) = Moon @ Apogee

2014-07-03 (Thu) = Earth @ Aphelion

2014-07-05 (Sat) = 1st Quarter

2014-07-08 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-07-12 (Sat) = SuperFullMoon = Moon @ Perigee

2014-07-13 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-07-18 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter

2014-07-20 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-07-26 (Sat) = New Moon

2014-07-27 (Sun) = Moon @ Apogee

2014-07-28 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-08-03 (Sun) = 1st Quarter

2014-08-05 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-08-10 (Sun) = SuperFullMoon = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-08-17 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-08-24 (Sun) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-08-25 (Mon) = New Moon

2014-09-02 (Tue) = 1st Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-09-07 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee

2014-09-09 (Tue) = SuperFullMoon = Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-09-14 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-09-15 (Mon) = 3rd Quarter

2014-09-20 (Sat) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-09-23 (Mon) = Equinox

2014-09-24 (Wed) = New Moon

2014-09-29 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-10-01 (Wed) = 1st Quarter

2014-10-06 (Mon) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-10-08 (Wed) = Full Moon = Lunar Eclipse

2014-10-13 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-10-15 (Wed) = 3rd Quarter

2014-10-18 (Sat) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-10-23 (Thu) = New Moon = Solar Eclipse

2014-10-26 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-10-30 (Thu) = 1st Quarter

2014-11-02 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee

2014-11-03 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-11-06 (Thu) = Full Moon

2014-11-09 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-11-14 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter + Moon @ Apogee

2014-11-15 (Sat) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-11-21 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-11-22 (Sat) = New Moon

2014-11-28 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-11-29 (Sat) = 1st Quarter

2014-12-06 (Sat) = Full Moon

2014-12-07 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-12-12 (Fri) = Moon @ Apogee

2014-12-13 (Sat) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-12-14 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter

2014-12-18 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-12-21 (Sun) = New Moon + Solstice

2014-12-24 (Wed) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-12-28 (Sun) = 1st Quarter

2015-01-02 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2015-01-04 (Sun) = Full Moon + Earth @ Perihelion

See also HERE

Sunspot Cycle 24: "None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle"

Conventional wisdom holds that solar activity swings back and forth like a simple pendulum.  At one end of the cycle, there is a quiet time with few sunspots and flares. At the other end, Solar Maximum brings high sunspot numbers and solar storms. It’s a regular rhythm that repeats every 11 years. 

Reality, however, is more complicated. Astronomers have been counting sunspots for centuries, and they have seen that the solar cycle is not perfectly regular. For one thing, the back-and-forth swing in sunspot counts can take anywhere from 10 to 13 years to complete; also, the amplitude of the cycle varies. Some solar maxima are very weak, others very strong (HERE). 

But "none of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle [as the sunspot cycle 24]", said Dr. Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University and other prominent solar scientists at the 2013 Fall Meeting of American Geophysical Union (AGU), held on December 11, 2013 in San Francisco. This solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle conjures up comparisons to the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s (see also HERE & HERE).

John Hampson recently expected the "solar cycle 24′s flat top to end by mid-2014", and one of two possibities playing out: "One, equities peak out within the next 6 months, commodities don’t come again, and we thereafter enter the typical post-solar-peak recession (deflationary). Or, two, equities are peaking now and commodities are breaking upwards out of their large consoliation triangles since 2011 to produce a typical late-cyclical final rally and help tip the weak economy into that recession." (see also HERE).

Credits: John Hampson

Credits: Jan Alvestad

 

Credits: Jan Alvestad

Solar Tides & Financial Markets | Al Larson

Astrophysics & Chaos [Mar 30, 1999]

"The Solar Energy System does affect markets. The Sun gives off radiation which varies by about 2 percent. These variations are caused by tidal forces that the revolving planets exert on the gases in the Sun.

These tides cause vortexes in the Sun’s surface leading to solar flares, coronal holes, and magnetic storms. The energy changes from these are carried to Earth on an ionized stream of particles called the Solar Wind.

When the Solar Wind reaches Earth it is deflected around the Earth by the Earth’s magnetic field. 

This creates a magnetosphere around the Earth. At the poles ionized particles can penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere. Changes in the solar radiation cause changes in the voltage in the ionosphere.

This in turn causes changes in the electrical currents flowing through people standing on the Earth. These emotional swings account for about 40 percent of price motion."

 

Al Larson a.k.a. Hanns Hannula [extracted from his "Cash in on Chaos Newsletter" @ www.moneytide.com - more HERE & HERE]

 

Hans Hannula (1991): A Lunar Chaos Theory; p. 14

S&P500 vs Planets out of Bounds

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution

When the declinations of Mercury, Venus and Mars are exceeding the extremes of the Sun's declination (= ± 23.27 degrees geocentric), the events are often correlating with market turns (see also HERE).  

20 May 2013- 13 Jun 2013 - Mercury OOB
24 May 2013- 19 Jun 2013 - Venus OOB
29 Jun 2013 - 3 Aug 2013 - Mars OOB
10 Oct 2013 - Dec 2013 - Venus OOB
16 Dec 2013 - 8 Jan 2014 - Mercury OOB

[Eastern Standard Time (EST) -0500 UTC]

Planets are out of bounds when in the yellowish shaded areas. Credits: Café Astrology

DJIA 2013-2014 vs 1929

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. For the methodology see HERE

Tom DeMark detected this 2013-2014 analog with 1929. It points to a very important market top on January 14, 2014. However, in a recent interview Tom DeMark was expressing his frustration about his signals not working due to constant FED manipulations. Stan Harley has figured on January 10, 2014 as an important top based on Fibonacci cycles. Based on George Lindsay's techniques, Ed Carlson targets the first half of January as the later of two likely ultimate top dates for this uptrend: "The current LLH interval points to a top on 1/2/14."

SPX vs George Bayer's Rule # 1

SPEED OF MERCURY IN GEOCENTRIC LONGITUDE

... Periodically the speed comes to a stand-still. At such times the planet moves from a direct motion into a retrograde motion or from a retrograde to a direct motion ... It is advisable to plot this Mercury speed ... through an entire year and note the effect of such changes. We obtain tops or bottoms ... When the previous movement is down, Wheat must be bought on weakness of the day; if the market moves upward prior to change of Mercury’s speed, short positions must be taken on strength during the day mercury changes its speed.

[George Bayer (1940): Stock and Commodity Traders´ Hand-Book of Trend Determination. Carmel, California; p. 13]

HERE

On Friday the S&P 500 closed on low volume and with the narrowest intra-day trading range since September 27th (more HERE)