Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin | David Hickson

S&P 500: Phased with an 18-month (or larger) trough in early April, 80-day trough mid-June (debated position due to fundamentals), 40-day trough mid-July, and recent subtle troughs suggesting a distorted 20-week cycle influenced by bullish longer cycles. Alternative analysis considers 20-week trough possibly formed on August 1st, but preferred view is it's ahead.
 

S&P 500 (daily bars) and Composite Model (dashed orange line).

Watch price interaction with 20-day FLD: support indicates 20-week trough has formed; crossing below suggests trough ahead. Bullish trend distorts cycles upward, with early trough possible within whiskers (mid-August range). Preferred: 20-week trough late August/early September, after a potential short bounce and decline. If trough formed early, expect upside to FLD-generated targets; composite model shows possible downturn soon.

NASDAQ: Similar to S&P 500, with 18-month trough April 7th, 80-day trough slightly late (77 days, mid-June), 40-day trough August 1st (39 days, running long). Cycles averaging longer wavelengths; good match to price troughs.
 

NASDAQ (daily bars) and Composite Model (dashed orange line).

Monitor shorter cycles for shortening (e.g., 20-day at 13 days, 40-day at 28 days) as indicator of trend change. Bullish trend may push peaks higher/later. 20-week trough ahead (end August/early September), with potential bounce to lower/higher peak, then decline. Composite model suggests lower peak but bullishness could override; cycles likely continue long unless shorter ones shorten.

Gold: Sideways in wedge, testing $3,450 peak multiple times; synchronized peaks expected. Dual trough/peak analyses both valid: 40-week trough mid-May, 80-day trough July 30th (post-update), good FLD interactions (66.7% rating).

Gold (daily bars) and Composite Model (dashed orange line).

 

Trapped wedge suggests breakout imminent; combine trough/peak for composite. Higher peak at 20-week cycle (end August/early September), then potential upside continuation. Composite (dual) shows upward move post-20-day trough; expect FLD support.

Bitcoin: 40-week trough mid-April, 80-day trough late June (clear), 40-day trough late (August 1st, expanded shorter cycles). Pure rhythms; similar to stocks, with bullish distortion.

Bitcoin (daily bars) and Composite Model (dashed orange line).

 

Watch 20-day FLD: support indicates early 20-week trough; cross below confirms ahead. Excessive bullishness (possible larger trough in April) pushes amplitudes higher. 20-week trough ahead (end August/early September), after bounce to potentially higher peak despite model showing lower. Cycles running long; amplitude least reliable, but wavelengths suggest decline post-peak.

 

Reference:
David Hickson (August 11, 2025) - Was That It? - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

Ethereum Hurst Cycle Analysis: Turning Points for 2025-2026 | Branimir Vojcic

The chart below represents a dual Hurst cycle analysis of troughs and peaks in the daily chart for Ethereum (ETHUSD). The orange line is the cycles composite, based on current estimates of periods, phases, and amplitudes.

Ethereum (daily bars) and Cycle Composite (orange line).

 

■ Next 40-week cycle peak (expected) late August or early September 2025.
■ Next 40-week cycle trough late 2025 or early 2026.
■ Next 18-month cycle peak in May 2026.
■ Next 18-month cycle trough September or October 2026.
■ Ethereum's bullish outlook from 2025 to 2028 predicts significant gains relative to Bitcoin.

Do not correlate price with the amplitudes of the cycle composite. Instead, use peaks and troughs as estimates of price turning points. 

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (August 11, 2025)  - Ethereum Hurst Cycle Analysis: Key Turning Points for 2025-2026. (video)

Long-term Spectrum Cycle Composite for ETH.

 

See also:
Branimir Vojcic (July 14, 2025)  - Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+.
Philip Hopf (August 8, 2025)  - Ethereum Outlook – Technical Structure and Price Targets.

Ethereum Outlook – Technical Structure and Price Targets | Philip Hopf

After price had risen significantly in recent weeks, Ethereum reached new interim highs at USD 4,070 on August 8, but may now be approaching a medium-term correction. 

 

Ethereum (weekly bars): Major resistance zone around USD 4,107.

The stablecoin market volume stood at USD 250 billion on July 23 and is currently growing by roughly USD 5 billion per week. It has already reached approximately USD 280.8 billion. Over 50% of all stablecoins operate on the Ethereum blockchain – a factor seen as clearly positive for Ethereum. Capital flows show significant inflows into Ethereum ETFs in recent weeks. A notable divergence is visible between retail investors and large investors (institutions/whales):

ETH (black line) Number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 10k (blue line) sharply rising:

The whales are eating Ethereum alive.

 

■ Retail investors have been steadily reducing their Ethereum holdings for months, even during recent price gains.

■ Large investors, on the other hand, have been accumulating heavily. 

■ Number of addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH – currently worth around USD 40 million each – has risen sharply.

 

This is interpreted as a long-term bullish signal: “smart money” is buying while “dumb money” is selling.

 

Short-term price may reach USD 4,200–4,300, followed by a quick pullback.

 

From a technical perspective, there is a major resistance zone around USD 4,107 that has repeatedly triggered sharp corrections in the past. In the short term, price could reach this area or slightly exceed it (up to about USD 4,200–4,300). A breakout above this level might attract momentum traders, potentially followed by a quick pullback.

The expected correction could, depending on the exact high, amount to USD 1,000–1,300, bringing the price down to the USD 3,000 range or lower. This phase is viewed as a buying opportunity.

 

A correction down to around USD 3,000 should be followed by a medium-term
rise to USD 5,500–6,500 and long-term targets of USD 12,000–14,000.

In the medium term, after the correction, another upward move is anticipated, with targets between USD 5,500 and 6,500. In the long term price regions of USD 12,000–14,000 are considered possible. Exact timing cannot be derived from Elliott Wave analysis, as price movements and patterns can vary greatly in duration.

Reference:

Philip Hopf (August 8, 2025) - Ethereum: The Whales are Eating the Market Alive! (video)

 

ETH's 3-year cycle rises late 2025–mid-2027 as BTC’s 4-year cycle declines until early 2027, 

favoring ETH’s outperformance vs. BTC through ~2028.

Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle

The 40-week cycle, also known as the 9-Month Cycle, is a cornerstone of J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory, developed during the 1960s and 1970s to forecast financial market movements through harmonic cycles. Spanning approximately 272.8 days from trough to trough, it consists of two 20-week cycles (19.48 weeks or 136.4 days each). The 40-week cycle is additionally subdivided into four 10-week or 80-day cycles (68.2 days), eight 40-day cycles (34.1 days), sixteen 20-day cycles (17 days), thirty-two 10-day cycles (8.5 days), and sixty-four 5-day cycles (4.3 days), forming one nested structure essential for swing and position trading. 

This idealized 40-Week Cycle (purple) of 272.8 calendar days is divided into two 20-week cycles (teal), each
of which is further divided into two 10-week cycles (blue), highlighting the complete nested harmonic structure.

Note that the 40-week cycle is itself half of the 18-month cycle, which in turn is one-third of the 54-month cycle—half of a 9-year cycle—and so on. The 40-week cycle’s intermediate-term horizon captures significant market swings, making it ideal for timing entries at troughs and exits at peaks, especially when aligned with shorter cycles (10-week, 20-week) or longer cycles (18-month, 54-month). 

 

54-month, 18-month, and 40-week cycles in the CAD/USD (weekly bars), 2020-2025.

 

Bitcoin (monthly bars): 18-month and 54-month cycle peaks and troughs, 2018-2027.

 

In bear markets, the cycle’s crest occurs early (second to third month, left translation), with a brief rise and prolonged decline; in bull markets, the crest shifts later (sixth to eighth month, right translation), leading to a longer advance. The strongest rallies typically occur in the first three months when cycles align upward, while the last three months are vulnerable to renewed declines. 

 

Why the turning points of individual long-term cycles typically diverge—often significantly—from the composite 
or summation cycle of the three to four most prominent cycles (red), and thus from actual market price extremes.

 Hurst's nominal model allows for significant variability in actual cycle lengths.

 

Hurst's Nominal Model  can be displayed as a series of sinusoids (x-axis) with different amplitudes (y-axis) that, when summed, create a composite model, represented by the thick black line in the example of an 18-month cycle projection for the current S&P 500 in the chart below. 

 

18-Month Cycle Projection for the S&P 500 based on Hurst's Nominal Model.

 

The orange line is the 18-month cycle (17.93 months = 546.6 calendar days), the light green the 40-week cycle (9 months = 38.97 weeks = 272.8 days), dark green the 20-week component (4.5 months = 19.97 weeks = 136.4 days), light blue the 10-week cycle (= 68.2 days), dark blue the so called 40-day or 5-week cycle (= 34.1 days) and finally the so called 20-day cycle (17 days) is the purple sinusoid. The X axis represents the number of calendar days. 
 

In the S&P 500, April 7, 2025, was an 18-month cycle low, and the next 

40-week cycle troughs are estimated for early 2026 and late Q4 2026.

The wavelengths in the above S&p 500 projection are average values rather than exact measurements. The thick black composite line ignores the effects of both the trend and cycles shorter than 20 days or longer than 18 months. Assuming the US stock market operates with clockwork precision, the dates for upcoming peaks and troughs were calculated from the 18-month cycle trough on April 7, 2025, and the aforementioned average cycle lengths. 

 

10 Years of the nominal 40-week cycles in the SPY—one of the most coherent longer term cycles in stock markets today,

is projected to peak on August 19, 2025, according to Sigma-I.net.

 

See also:

Christopher Grafton (2011)  - Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis. 

David Hickson (2025) - Sentinent Trader Software for Hurst Cycles Analysis. 

 Lars von Thienen (2025) - Cycle Tools - App Manual for Online Spectrum Cycle Analysis.

TPR (2025)  - J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory.

 

Comparison of Hurst’s Cyclic Theory and Spectrum Cycle Analysis.

 

Lars von Thienen's online Spectrum Cycle Analysis tools.

S&P 500 20-Week Hurst Cycle Support Around 6,000 | Branimir Vojcic

The S&P 500, having bounced off support, is projected by Hurst Cycle Analysis to reverse near its current level and decline into a 20-week cycle low around the third week of August, likely finding support around 6,000 (+/- 50) at the 20-week Forward Line of Demarcation (FLD). 

April 7, 2025, was an 18-month cycle low, and the next 40-week cycle (= 9-month cycle) troughs are estimated for early 2026 and late Q4 2026.

The Hurst Cycle Composite line for the Nasdaq 100 4-hour chart (orange) predicts a mid-August trough, a peak around late September 2025, and a subsequent decline.

 

Reference:

Branimir Vojcic (August 4, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycle Analysis: 20-week cycle low in the third week of August.

 

See also:
Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week.
David Hickson (July 28, 2025) - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Close to 40-Day Hurst Cycle Peak. 

Price Projections Using J.M. Hurst's FLD | Branimir Vojcic

Using Bitcoin as an example, I will explain the cycle-based price projection method described by J.M. Hurst. In cycle literature, this method is referred to as price projections using the Forward Line of Demarcation (FLD). [The FLD is essentially a displaced moving average, acting as a leading indicator of price interaction with the cycle’s midpoint and as a dynamic support or resistance level.]

 

 

Definitions:
Cycle period = time interval between cycle troughs 

FLD = Forward Line of Demarcation = price shifted by half the cycle period
Cyan line = median of the price bar
TD = trading day
CD = calendar day

 

In the Bitcoin example, the FLD band is constructed by offsetting the median price (High Price + Low Price / 2) by TD = 7 and TD = 8, which correspond to CD = 9 and CD = 10 for the nominal 20-day cycle, presumed to vary between 19 and 20 CDs.

  

■ H1 is the vertical distance between the last low before the median price intersects the left FLD band boundary and the intersection point.

■ H2 is the vertical distance between the last low before the median price intersects the right FLD band boundary and the intersection point.

■ The lower level of the target range is determined by adding H1 to the left FLD boundary intersection point. The upper level of the target range is determined by adding H2 to the right FLD boundary intersection point.

The price targets derived from this method are met with an average probability of 0.7 (i.e., 70% of the time), though they may vary by a few percentage points depending on the cycle length and the financial instrument involved. If one allows for the price to approach—rather than fully reach—the target range, the probability of success increases significantly.

In uptrends, upward targets are reached with a higher probability, while downward targets are less likely to be met. Conversely, in downtrends, downward targets are more probable, and upward targets less so. If a target is not reached, it may indicate a pending price reversal due to one or more longer cycles exerting pressure in the opposite direction.

For cycle periods, one may use Hurst’s nominal cycle periods (see table above) or estimated actual cycle periods, if appropriate software is available. In either case, some tolerance (+/-) around the estimated cycle lengths should be considered.

This remarkably powerful method is difficult to surpass by any other I have encountered. It produces projection targets similar to those obtained using converged Centered Moving Averages (CMA) and focal point-based projections—a logical outcome, since all are based on cycles and their inherent properties.

I hope this explanation demystifies price targets. A combination of price and time targets for turning points is a powerful tool—it helps one stay in the trend as long as possible while anticipating both the price and timing of reversals.

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (2024)  - Price Projections Using FLDs – How to Read Charts.

 

See also:

Christopher Grafton (2022)  - Using FLDs to Forecast Market Turning Points and Trends.

Christopher Grafton (2011)  - Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis. 

TPR (2025)  - J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory.

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update: Mid-August Low, Rally into September | Krasi

As expected, last week, the completion of minor Elliott Waves 4 and 5 led to a bearish weekly reversal, confirming the pattern on schedule and initiating a downward move. We are currently in week 17 of the 20-week cycle, with the cycle low expected within the next 1–3 weeks, likely mid-August, followed by an upward move into September.
 

Key upcoming milestones include a 40-week low in November or December 2025 and a 40-week high in February or March 2026. Market reversals typically occur gradually rather than with abrupt crashes. Thus, between now and February/March 2026, anticipate a series of highs and lows. After this period, the market is likely to experience a more pronounced decline. For historical parallels, examine the periods of January–August 2000, May–December 2007, and August 2021–March 2022. 

Reference:
Krasi (August 2, 2025)  - Practical Technical Analysis: Quick Update.

See also:
Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week.
David Hickson (July 28, 2025) - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Close to 40-Day Hurst Cycle Peak.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2025)  - August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes.

S&P 500 and NASDAQ Close to 40-Day Hurst Cycle Peak | David Hickson

The S&P 500 formed an 18-month cycle trough in early April 2025, followed by an 80-day cycle trough on June 23, and a recent 40-day cycle trough on July 16. A 20-week cycle trough is anticipated around mid-August, with the 20-week cycle FLD expected to provide support. 

 

S&P 500 (daily bars): Expect a 40-day cycle peak soon, and a mid-August 20-week cycle trough.

The market is currently in a bullish trend, forming a second 40-day cycle peak soon, after which it should decline into the 20-week trough. Shorter cycle FLDs (5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 40-day, 80-day) will be monitored for peak confirmation and to generate downside targets. The trough may form above the 20-week FLD due to the bullish trend.

The NASDAQ also formed an 18-month cycle trough in the April, and an 80-day cycle trough in mid-June. A second 40-day cycle peak is expected soon, followed by a decline into a 20-week cycle trough in mid-August, with support at the 20-week FLD.

 

 NASDAQ (daily bars), same as in the S&P: 40-day cycle peak soon, 

and a rather shallow mid-August 20-week cycle trough.

Shorter cycle FLDs will be watched for peak confirmation. No significant changes have occurred since the last update, and both indices are expected to follow similar cycle paths.

 

Gold was potentially forming a significant cycle peak, possibly an 18-year cycle peak, around mid-April of 2025, but without confirmation, as its price moves in a contracting wedge and lacks the typical sharp, isolated peaks. 

 

Gold (weekly bars): 18-year peak likely still ahead (allow 1-2 years of leeway). 

Hence, doubts persist about the 18-year peak, with suggestions the April 22 high may be a 20-week or 40-week peak instead, the true 18-year peak likely still ahead due to cycle variation allowing a year or two of leeway. A 40-week cycle trough formed on May 15, and an 80-day cycle trough is expected in early August, with the price crossing below the 20-day FLD, targeting around $3,250, followed by a potential bounce. 

 

Bitcoin saw the 18-month cycle trough in August 2024 (the first in the current 54-month cycle), and a 40-week trough in April 2025, where the cycle FLD provided support. 

 

Bitcoin (weekly bars): next 18-month cycle trough by year-end

or early 2026 (the second in the current 54-month cycle).

 

Bitcoin (monthly bars): 18-month and 54-month cycle peaks and troughs.
 

A 20-week cycle trough is expected in mid-to-late August, with a peak possibly already formed or imminent, followed by a slight decline into the trough before an 18-month cycle trough anticipated by year-end or early next year.

Reference:
David Hickson (28 July, 2025)  - Finding The Cycle Peak - Hurst Cycles Market Update . (video) 

 

See also:

Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week.

Jeff Hirsch (July 25, 2025)  - August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes.  

David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Headed for August Cycle Troughs. 

David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - Gold Nearing Its 54-Month Hurst Cycle Peak.
Branimir Vojcic (July 14, 2025)  - Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+.

S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week | Krasi

The pattern is on track to complete this week at week 34, in line with the projected 40-week cycle high (typical range: 32–36 weeks). Market breadth is deteriorating, with persistent negative divergences confirming a sell bias.

An ideal impulsive structure in wave C or Y suggests that the market is nearing the end of a five-wave impulsive move

(waves 1 through 5) within either wave C of a corrective pattern (e.g., a zigzag or flat) or wave Y of a complex correction

(e.g., a triangle or double/triple three).

This likely marks a significant top—at minimum a 40-week high—with increased probability that it’s the 4-year cycle peak. Minor waves 4 and 5 remain to complete, potentially finalizing an ideal impulsive structure in wave C or Y, thus terminating the broader pattern.

Reference:
Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - Quick Update.

Every dip's a wave—until it’s not.

See also:

Jeff Hirsch (July 25, 2025)  - August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes. 
David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Headed for August Cycle Troughs.

Gold Nearing Its 54-Month Hurst Cycle Peak | David Hickson

Gold's price action has been challenging to analyze due to its recent flat trend, forming a wedge pattern. Gold is rising into an 80-day cycle peak, with potential for a higher price and a major 54-month cycle peak ahead.

Gold is currently rising into an 80-day cycle peak, and a higher price is expected in the near term.

Peak-Based Analysis (price peaks are synchronized): The current 54-month cycle peak is not sharply isolated, reducing confidence in its placement. A larger, sharper peak is expected, potentially displaced to the right, possibly reaching higher prices within the ongoing 80-day cycle peak.
Trough-Based Analysis (cycles align at troughs, which is mathematically incompatible with peak synchronization): The composite model (combining both analyses) shows divergence from the actual price, particularly recently, despite aligning at the 80-day cycle trough. This discrepancy suggests the major cycle peak is mispositioned, reinforcing the likelihood of a significant peak forming soon.

Close monitoring is needed due to the analysis discrepancy and non-ideal peak characteristics.

Reference:
David Hickson (14 July 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis for Gold. (video)

 

See also:

Namzes (January 12, 2025)  - 2025 Gold Forecast.  

TPR (2018) - J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory.

 

Gold (CMX) 40 Year Seasonality (1980-2019).

 

Gold likely remains in a broader bullish Elliott Wave structure, still supporting the expectation of a new all-time high. The preferred view is that wave four ended at $3,123 and wave five has begun, or that gold is forming an ending diagonal, having completed wave one and now correcting in wave two. This would lead to a five-wave diagonal, typically marked by overlaps, ultimately reaching new highs in a less aggressive fashion. The alternate view is that gold remains in an extended wave four correction. However, this is seen as less likely due to the disproportionate time it would take compared to previous subwaves, making it structurally inconsistent with typical Elliott Wave proportions.

  

Elliott Wave structure favors another all-time high around $3,600 depending on

how Wave 5 unfolds [see the above mentioned major 54-month Hurst cycle peak].

 

Support at $3,123 and especially $2,970 remains critical. Staying above these levels keeps the bullish case intact. A decisive break below $2,970 with increased downside momentum would raise the likelihood that gold has topped. The structure still favors another all-time high, with a potential target around $3,600. Unless $2,970 breaks with conviction, the market bias remains upward, with summer consolidation expected to resolve higher into the fall and year-end.

 

 

Following the completion of Wave 5, gold is expected to undergo a longer-term, multi-year retracement—either to around $2,541, or more significantly, by 61.8% to 78.6%, potentially reaching levels near $1,379.50 or even $884.20.

 

Reference:
HKCM Global (June 27, 2025)  - Gold Bull Market Losing Steam – Time to Reposition? (video)

Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+ | Branimir Vojcic

The analysis of Bitcoin’s performance concludes that Ethereum is likely to outperform Bitcoin over the next few years. However, Bitcoin’s price trajectory is still expected to show significant movement. 

 

Bitcoin's cycle peak in the 2nd half of 2025 will likely coincide with price reaching the green rectangle range, which is a forty-week

cycle price target. According to the preferred Elliott Wave count, that peak should be a wave (a) of super-cycle degree.

 

A cycle composite on the weekly chart projects Bitcoin's peak into the second half of 2025. 

 
A composite of three dominant cycles on the weekly chart indicates continued upside in the coming months, with a cycle peak projected for the second half of 2025. This peak is expected to align with Bitcoin reaching a price target within a green rectangle range, as determined by a 40-week cycle, and corresponds to a wave A of supercycle degree according to the preferred long-term Elliott wave count.

The relative performance of Ethereum versus Bitcoin will likely be better in the next few years.

 

Following this peak, a downturn is anticipated in 2026, with a cycle trough expected in the second half of the year or early 2027. This corrective phase is identified as a supercycle wave B, potentially bringing Bitcoin’s price down to around the 40,000 range during a multi-year correction. The lower blue trend line is highlighted as a logical support level during this period. The corrective wave B could manifest in various forms, such as a zigzag, triangle, or other corrective structures.

After the correction, a supercycle wave C is expected to drive Bitcoin’s price to the 160,000 range or higher, marking a significant long-term upward movement. This analysis combines cycle analysis and Elliott wave theory to provide a comprehensive outlook on Bitcoin’s price behavior over the coming years.

 

ETH’s dominant 3-year cycle enters an up-phase from late 2025 to mid-2027, while BTC’s 4-year cycle remains in decline until early 2027. This out-of-phase alignment supports ETH outperformance vs. BTC through ~2028.

Ethereum is expected to outperform Bitcoin until 2028: Ethereum operates on a dominant three-year cycle, while Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle. These cycles are currently out of phase—Ethereum's cycle is projected to rise from late 2025 to mid-2027, while Bitcoin's cycle will decline until early 2027. Though other factors also influence performance, these dominant cycles are key long-term indicators. 

 

Reference:

Branimir Vojcic (July 14, 2025) - Bitcoin's Next Move (2025-2028): Cycle and Elliott Wave Analysis. (video) 

Branimir Vojcic (May 21, 2025)  - Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Which Crypto Will Dominate? (video) 

 

Altcoin Season Index: It is not Altcoin Season!
 

Bitcoin's Seasonal Trend.

 

 

Bitcoin formed a 40-week cycle trough in April, followed by an 80-day cycle trough in late June. Bitcoin recently hit a $121,000 target set in May or June, with price finding support at the 80-day cycle FLD. A 20-week cycle trough is expected in early September, likely at the 20-week FLD level. A 54-month cycle trough in late 2022 drives the current bullish action, with an 18-month cycle trough in August 2024 forming bullish M shapes. The current 18-month cycle, ending in early 2026, is expected to be less bullish as the 54-month cycle turns down. Watch for a peak before the next 18-month cycle trough in early 2026.

 

Hurst Cycle Analysis for Bitcoin by David Hickson, July 14, 2025.