Markets repeat directly or inversely somewhere between (+/- 2 days) the 4 Lunar Month Cycle (118.12 Days) and the average synodic period of Mercury (116.88 Days). More on the Delta Phenomenon HERE - Please note: Inversions of polarity oftentimes occur +/- 2 weeks around equinoxes and solstices (HERE) |
Monday, March 3, 2014
Moon and Stocks - The Four Lunar Month Cycle
Labels:
118 Day Cyle,
354 CD Cycle,
4 Lunar Year Cycle,
Delta,
DJI,
FTSE,
Lunar Cycle,
Lunar Month,
Moon,
NDX,
Solunar Theory,
SPX,
SPY
Sunspots and Stocks - The Short-Term
'Daily Sunspot Numbers' and 'F10.7 Flux' e.g. @ NASA's OMNIWeb |
In the late 1990s Jeffrey Owen Katz and Donna McCormick examined the effects of sunspots especially on the S&P 500 and Minnesota Wheat. They developed several profitable trading strategies generating entries and exits based on solar activity alone. However, they concluded: "We personally do not believe solar influences directly determine the market. We do suspect that they act as triggers for events that are predisposed to occur, or as synchronizers of already-present market rhythms with similar periodicities." Well ...
Labels:
10.7 cm Radio Flux,
Al Larson,
Bradley Siderograph,
Donna McCormick,
Geomagnetic Forecast,
Jeffrey Owen Katz,
KP Index,
Market and Solar Activity,
Solar Cycle,
Space Weather,
Sunspots
Sunspots and Stocks | The Big Picture
Most people think the Sun rests at the centre of the solar system, and that the planets orbit it. This is almost correct, but not quite (HERE). |
The tidal and electro-magnetic forces exerted on the Sun by the motions of the other planets – primarily by Jupiter and Saturn - are the cause for the cyclic solar activity. Outside of the Sun, Jupiter and Saturn combined contain 92% of the total planetary mass and 86% of the angular momentum. The Sun's radius is 0.0044 astronomical units, while Jupiter and Saturn can move the barycenter as much ~2.2 solar radii away from the center of the Sun. The total angular momentum in the Solar System is constant, while the angular momentum of each individual part of the system referred to the Center of Mass is variable. When Jupiter and Saturn are in conjunction with the Sun, the barycenter is far outside of the Sun. But when both of them are on opposite sides, the barycenter is inside the Sun. Jupiter's magnetosphere extends well beyond Saturn's orbit. If it were not for the presence of the solar field itself, Jupiter's magnetosphere would reach the centre of the solar system. Saturn also has a large magnetosphere, approximately about one-fifth of Jupiter's. The variation in the Sun's motion about the Center of Mass is charcterized by a periodicity of 178.770 years: Every 16 loops about the barycenter the Sun repeats a very similar path. The slight time derivative or torque to this 178.770 year cycle, a time dependant periodic function of +/- 1.05 years is called the torque cycle, determined by nine subsequent synodic periods of Jupiter and Saturn (9 * 19.858 years = 178.720 years) and used by Theodor Landscheidt to forecast sunspot cycles.
Mikhail Gorbanev (2012): Probably, the earliest recorded hypothesis about the relation between the solar and business activity was presented in a paper by German astronomer Wilhelm Herschel in 1801, calling attention to an apparent relationship between sunspot activity and the price of wheat. In 1875 British economist and statistician William Stanley Jevons suggested that there was a relation- ship between sunspots and business cycle crises. He reasoned that sunspots affect Earth's weather, which, in turn, influences crops and, therefore, the economy. In 1934 Argentinian Carlos Garcia- Mata and Felix I. Shaffner revisited the evidence about the links between solar activity and business cycle in the US. They did not find support for Jevon’s theory about cyclical solar activity affecting crops. However, they uncovered a statistically significant correlation between the fluctuations in non-agricultural business activity in the US and the solar cycle. |
Mikhail Gorbanev (2012): Solar maximums are good predictors of US recession, effectively predicting at least 8 out of 13 recessions between 1935 and 2012. Recessions occurred in the months around and after the solar maximums much more often than in other periods. Out of 13 recessions in this period, 8 started in the 2 years around solar maximums, counting from 3 months before until 20 months after them. What about the remaining 4 recessions that occurred in 1935-2012, including the Great Recession of 2008-09? The brief recession of 1945 was likely caused by reduction of the US government supply and military orders in the end of the WWII. And the similar causes likely triggered the recession of 1953-54 after the end of Korean War (historically, the recessions quite often happened after the end of major wars). The painful recession of 1974-75 was caused by the oil price shock. And the Great Recession of 2008-09 was triggered by the collapse of sub-prime lending in the US, which exposed massive overvaluation of the housing stock and flaws in mortgage lending and securitization practices. |
Mikhail Gorbanev (2012): In the 64 years from 1948 to 2012, all 6 periods of sunspot maximums overlapped with minimums of the US unemployment rate. Moreover, each time the dynamics of unemployment changed from the declining trend to a rapid increase, with the unemployment rate peaking 2-3 years after the sunspot maximums. |
Labels:
Market and Solar Activity,
Mikhail Gorbanev,
Paul D. Jose,
Solar Cycle,
Sunspots,
Theodor Landscheidt,
William Herschel,
William Stanley Jevons
George Bayer Forecasts - Food for thought
Labels:
AstroFin,
Cotton,
DJIA,
George Bayer,
George Bayer Forecasts,
SPX,
Stock Market,
US-Stocks,
Wheat
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
SP500 and VIX - Intermediate Term Delta Projections
Monday, February 10, 2014
Long-Term Charts: US-Stocks (1789 to date) | Commodities (1770 to date) | Gold (1792 to date) | Elliott Waves in DJI (1920 to date) - Kress Cycles
Credits: H/t @Macro_Tourist through Tyler Durden on 02/08/2014 @ www.zerohedge.com |
Credits: H/t @Macro_Tourist through Tyler Durden on 02/08/2014 @ www.zerohedge.com |
Credits: H/t @Macro_Tourist through Tyler Durden on 02/08/2014 @ www.zerohedge.com |
Credits: Clif Droke @ www.safehaven.com - see also HERE & HERE & HERE & HERE |
Labels:
Clif Droke,
Commodities,
DJIA,
Elliott Wave,
Gold,
Historical Charts,
Kress Cycles,
NDX,
SPX,
US-Stocks
Sunday, February 2, 2014
DJIA 2014 vs 2004
Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. |
Labels:
AstroFin,
DJI,
Lunar Cycle,
NDX,
Sergey Tarassov,
SPX,
Timing Solution
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
U.S. Stocks in 5th strongest and 6th longest Bull Cycle since 1900
The bull market since March 2009 is the 22nd bull cycle since 1900. End of December 2013 it was in its 57th month. This is about the length of the current sunspot cycle 24. The ongoing bull market is now also the 6th longest bull cycle and with a performance of 154% (closing December 31st) the 5th strongest since 1900.
Labels:
Decennial Cycle,
Decennial Pattern,
DJI,
Presidential Cycle,
SPX,
Sunspot Cycle
Thursday, January 9, 2014
SoLunar Tidal Forces 2014
[Eastern Standard Time (EST) -0500 UTC]
2013-12-26 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-01-01 (Wed) = SuperNewMoon
= Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-01-04 (Sat) =
Earth @ Perihelion
2014-01-07 (Tue) = 1st Quarter
2014-01-09 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-01-15
(Wed) = Full Moon + Moon @ Apogee
2014-01-16 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-01-23 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-01-24 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter
2014-01-30 (Thu) = SuperNewMoon
= Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-02-06 (Thu) = 1st Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-02-12 (Wed) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-02-14
(Fri) = Full Moon
2014-02-20 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-02-22 (Sat) = 3rd Quarter
2014-02-27 (Thu) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-03-01 (Sat) = New
Moon
2014-03-06 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-03-08 (Sat) = 1st Quarter
2014-03-11 (Tue) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-03-16
(Sun) = Full Moon
2014-03-20 (Thu) = Equinox + Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-03-23 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter
2014-03-27 (Thu) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-03-30 (Sun) = New
Moon
2014-04-03 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-04-07 (Mon) = 1st Quarter
2014-04-08 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-04-15
(Tue) = Full Moon = Lunar Eclipse
2014-04-16 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-04-22 (Tue) = 3rd Quarter + Moon @ Perigee
2014-04-23 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-04-29 (Tue) = New
Moon = Solar Eclipse
2014-04-30 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-05-06 (Tue) = 1st Quarter + Moon @ Apogee + Tidal
Force @ MIN
2014-05-13 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-05-14
(Wed) = Full Moon
2014-05-18 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-05-21 (Wed) = 3rd Quarter
2014-05-26 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-05-28 (Wed) = New
Moon
2014-06-02 (Mon) = Moon @ Apogee
2014-06-03 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-06-05 (Thu) = 1st Quarter
2014-06-10 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-06-12
(Thu) = Full Moon
2014-06-14 (Sat) = Moon @ Perigee
2014-06-15 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-06-19 (Thu) = 3rd Quarter
2014-06-21 (Sat) =
Solstice
2014-06-22 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-06-27 (Fri) = New
Moon
2014-06-30 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-06-30 (Mon) = Moon @ Apogee
2014-07-03 (Thu) =
Earth @ Aphelion
2014-07-05 (Sat) = 1st Quarter
2014-07-08 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-07-12
(Sat) = SuperFullMoon = Moon @ Perigee
2014-07-13 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-07-18 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter
2014-07-20 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-07-26 (Sat) = New
Moon
2014-07-27 (Sun) = Moon @ Apogee
2014-07-28 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-08-03 (Sun) = 1st Quarter
2014-08-05 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-08-10
(Sun) = SuperFullMoon = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-08-17 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-08-24 (Sun) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-08-25 (Mon) = New
Moon
2014-09-02 (Tue) = 1st Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-09-07 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee
2014-09-09
(Tue) = SuperFullMoon = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-09-14 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-09-15 (Mon) = 3rd Quarter
2014-09-20 (Sat) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-09-23 (Mon) =
Equinox
2014-09-24 (Wed) = New
Moon
2014-09-29 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-10-01 (Wed) = 1st Quarter
2014-10-06 (Mon) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-10-08
(Wed) = Full Moon = Lunar Eclipse
2014-10-13 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-10-15 (Wed) = 3rd Quarter
2014-10-18 (Sat) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-10-23 (Thu) = New
Moon = Solar Eclipse
2014-10-26 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-10-30 (Thu) = 1st Quarter
2014-11-02 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee
2014-11-03 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-11-06
(Thu) = Full Moon
2014-11-09 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-11-14 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter + Moon @ Apogee
2014-11-15 (Sat) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-11-21 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-11-22 (Sat) = New
Moon
2014-11-28 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-11-29 (Sat) = 1st Quarter
2014-12-06
(Sat) = Full Moon
2014-12-07 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-12-12 (Fri) = Moon @ Apogee
2014-12-13 (Sat) = Tidal Force @ MIN
2014-12-14 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter
2014-12-18 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2014-12-21 (Sun) = New
Moon +
Solstice
2014-12-24 (Wed) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX
2014-12-28 (Sun) = 1st Quarter
2015-01-02 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ Zero
2015-01-04
(Sun) = Full Moon + Earth @ Perihelion
See also HERE
Labels:
Apogee,
AstroFin,
Astronomy,
DJI,
John Alden Knight,
Lunar Cycle,
Lunar Eclipse,
Market and Solar Activity,
Moon,
NDX,
Perigee,
Solar Eclipse,
SoLunar Forecast,
Solunar Theory,
SPX,
Sun,
Tides
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Sunspot Cycle 24: "None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle"
Conventional wisdom holds that solar activity swings back and forth like a simple pendulum. At one end of the cycle, there is a quiet time with few sunspots and flares. At the other end, Solar Maximum brings high sunspot numbers and solar storms. It’s a regular rhythm that repeats every 11 years.
Reality, however, is more complicated. Astronomers have been counting sunspots for centuries, and they have seen that the solar cycle is not perfectly regular. For one thing, the back-and-forth swing in sunspot counts can take anywhere from 10 to 13 years to complete; also, the amplitude of the cycle varies. Some solar maxima are very weak, others very strong (HERE).
But "none of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle [as the sunspot cycle 24]", said Dr. Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University and other prominent solar scientists at the 2013 Fall Meeting of American Geophysical Union (AGU), held on December 11, 2013 in San Francisco. This solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle conjures up comparisons to the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s (see also HERE & HERE).
John Hampson recently expected the "solar cycle 24′s flat top to end by mid-2014", and one of two possibities playing out: "One, equities peak out within the next 6 months, commodities don’t come again, and we thereafter enter the typical post-solar-peak recession (deflationary). Or, two, equities are peaking now and commodities are breaking upwards out of their large consoliation triangles since 2011 to produce a typical late-cyclical final rally and help tip the weak economy into that recession." (see also HERE).
Reality, however, is more complicated. Astronomers have been counting sunspots for centuries, and they have seen that the solar cycle is not perfectly regular. For one thing, the back-and-forth swing in sunspot counts can take anywhere from 10 to 13 years to complete; also, the amplitude of the cycle varies. Some solar maxima are very weak, others very strong (HERE).
But "none of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle [as the sunspot cycle 24]", said Dr. Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University and other prominent solar scientists at the 2013 Fall Meeting of American Geophysical Union (AGU), held on December 11, 2013 in San Francisco. This solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle conjures up comparisons to the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s (see also HERE & HERE).
John Hampson recently expected the "solar cycle 24′s flat top to end by mid-2014", and one of two possibities playing out: "One, equities peak out within the next 6 months, commodities don’t come again, and we thereafter enter the typical post-solar-peak recession (deflationary). Or, two, equities are peaking now and commodities are breaking upwards out of their large consoliation triangles since 2011 to produce a typical late-cyclical final rally and help tip the weak economy into that recession." (see also HERE).
Credits: John Hampson |
Credits: Jan Alvestad |
Credits: Jan Alvestad |
Labels:
DJI,
Geomagnetic Forecast,
Geomagnetic Storm,
Jan Alvestad,
John Hampson,
KP Index,
Market and Solar Activity,
NOAA,
Solar Cycle 24,
Solar Wind,
Space Weather,
SPX,
Stock Market,
Sunspot Cycle,
Sunspots
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)