Thursday, January 11, 2024

Cosmic Cluster Days | January - February 2024


Heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets coincide with Change in Trend (CIT) in financial markets. 
Cosmic Cluster CIT-Signal Days = Composite Line of all angles outside the Cosmic Noise Channel.
Cosmic Cluster CIT-Signal Days (CCDs) have no consistent polarity/directional bias.
Swing highs and lows  of the Composite Line  inside of the channel may also coincide with market reversals.
= White Circles = Full Moons | = Black Circles = New Moons.
 The calculation methodology of the Composite Line  is akin to the one of the Berg-Timer.
 
Recent and upcoming Cosmic Cluster CIT-Signal Days are: 

Dec 06 (Wed)
Jan 08 (Mon)
Jan 27 (Sat)
Jan 31 (Wed)
Feb 04 (Sun)
Feb 17 (Sat)
Feb 22 (Thu)
Feb 25 (Sun)
Feb 29 (Thu)
Mar 02 (Sat) - Mar 03 (Sun) - Mar 04 (Mon)
 
Solunar Rhythm in January 2024. 
 
In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 
In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms. 
 
(Rob Handler, 2024)
 
 More often than not, stocks will 
 rise from (+/-) the 7th to (+/-) the 14th calendar day of a month.,
fall from (+/-) the 14th to (+/-) the 20th,
and rise from (+/-) the 20th to (+/-) the 25th.
 
 The 4th, 6th, 10th, 14th and 18th are usually positive.
The 7th and 20th are usually negative.
Not enough data for the 30th.

 
(Rob Handler, 2024)

(Allen Reminick, Jan 12, 2024)

Monday, January 8, 2024

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ January 2024

 
» The lunar node, quite abstractly speaking, is the point of intersection of the solar and the lunar orbits. There are, therefore, two nodes in opposite positions in the heavens: an ascending node or lunar north node, and a descending node - the lunar south node. The solar and the lunar orbits are not, in effect, in the same but in different planes, enclosing a certain angle. Thus there arise the two opposite points of intersection. The peculiarity of these two points of intersection is that they do not stand still but slowly move. The plane of the lunar path rotates in relation to the plane of the solar path; so the two nodes move a round. They move around the Zodiac in a contrary direction to the rotation of the planets, i.e., from Aries backward through Pisces, Aquarius, etc. A complete revolution of a lunar node takes place in 18 years and 7 months; after this time, therefore, the node — the ascending node, for example — is once again in the same position in the Zodiac as it was before. The ascending node is, thereby, the mathematical point that (at any given time and again after 18 years and 7 months [= 6,798.383 CD] the lunar orbit rises above the solar orbit, while at the opposite point the descending node sinks below it. «
Willi O. Sucher, 1937.
 

Sunday, January 7, 2024

Scholz Will Go So Everything Remains The Same │ The Duran

Alex Christoforou & Alexander Mercouris:
Is Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany 
- the governor of the most important US-vassal state in Europe - on his way out? 
 
This is what Springer's Bild, Europe’s biggest daily paper and a major CIA media in Germany, is suddenly peddling with. Bild creates a narrative around Scholz 'retiring' soon. He would be replaced by Boris Pistorius, the current Federal Minister of Defence, another seasoned senior Atlanticist, Anti-German, Warmonger, Russophobe and Zionist apparatchik of the US-occupation regime. Pistorius 'may' ban the AfD, Germany's most popular opposition party, Bild informs. To 'save democracy'. No worries. No elections. Steinmeier, Habeck, Baerbock, Faeser will remain. No regime change. Germany remains course. End of announcement.

"Majority wants Pistorius instead of Scholz" claims Bild,
while farmers block roads and fuel deliveries in largest nationwide protests ever.
Weimar 2.0.
 
Reference:

S&P 500 Weekly Reversal │ Robert Miner

December 29, 2023 = weekly high.

After a 9-week bull streak, the first week of 2024 closed lower = strong weekly momentum reversal.

January 05, 2024:

Expect some sideways-to-up move into around January 11-12 (Thu-Fri) before the continuation of a weekly bear trend.

S&P 500 Stats │ Wayne Whaley

Wayne Whaley (Jan 06, 2024) - The S&P broke a 9 week win streak last week. Normally any pullback in a strong advance will scan out as a buy signal. I posted 8 week advances instead of 9, so as to have +10 data points. The TOY Barometer aficionados will argue that the first week of the year is not just any week.
 
 
IsabelNet (Jan 06, 2024) - Historically, 9-week win streaks tend to be bullish for US stocks, with a median 12.4% increase in value seen a year later since 1950, giving investors good reason to expect a positive year in 2024.
 
 
IsabelNet (Jan 05, 2024) - From January to May of an election year, the performance of the S&P 500 index is often lackluster. However, as the year progresses, the market typically improves and delivers robust performance. 
 

IsabelNet (Jan 05, 2024) - Historically, the average annual return of the S&P 500 index tends to experience a substantial decrease during periods when stocks encounter challenges in the month of January.

Saturday, January 6, 2024

Sacred Defense | Imam Ali Khamenei

In the Name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful. All praise is due to God, Lord of the Worlds, and peace and greetings be upon our Master, Muhammad, and his pure, immaculate, chosen Progeny, particularly the Remnant of God on earth.
 
» All praise is due to God, Lord of the Worlds. «
Imam Sayyid Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 2023.

If our succeeding generations learn about the important, meaningful aspects of the Sacred Defense and realize how the Iranian nation was able to reach the heights of victory and to stand up there with power and pride, they will learn great lessons from it and they will achieve great things.

Up until now, we have not been able to make known the details of this great, colorful painting. In every piece of it there is so much beauty, and so much meaning and depth that one is amazed. Each piece of it is like this, and this information must be made known to people.

 
Imam Ali Khamenei, January 04, 2024, commenting 
on Israel's genocide in Gaza - the day after the terrorist attack in Kerman, Iran, 
killing at least 91 and injuring 284 people. CIA, Mossad and ISIS are actors of the same Zionist project.

Friday, January 5, 2024

The Clash of Civilizations: The Rest Against the West | Samuel P. Huntington

In the 21st century the central axis of world events will be conflict between Western and non-Western civilizations, conflict between the West and the Rest. The Rest has three options:
 
 
■ Surrender and submission
Isolation and protection of sovereignty and values. The costs are very high. Only few pursue this option.
Protection and defense of values and sovereign institutions through constant development of economic-military power and through cooperation and alliance with the West's other enemies. 
 
Reference:
» The world is witnessing an asymmetrical confrontation between two opposing sides, which has displayed the peak of brutality as well as desperation on one side and innocence along with heroic resistance on the other side. With a broader look at the years of confrontation and conflict between Global Arrogance and its vassals in West Asia on the one hand, and the Resistance Front and popular forces on the other hand, there remains no doubt that the astonishing work by Hamas and the residents of Gaza in Palestine are the domino effect of successive defeats of the hegemons and global colonialism in the region. «

 See also:

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

State of the S&P 500 │ Tom

The S&P 500 stands as the final major index to surpass its all-time highs. The remaining horizontal line linked to price history is at 4818—the intraday all-time high recorded two years ago on January 4, 2022. Currently, the S&P 500 maintains robust health. In the chart’s lower panel is my preferred gauge of market breadth, Net New Highs. This metric reports the number of stocks reaching new highs versus those making new lows across the NYSE and Nasdaq markets. This measure of breadth has remains consistently positive during the best market rallies.

Given the prevailing positive sentiment across markets, stemming from the widespread advance since November, I speculate the likelihood of a healthy correction as the next probable move. To assess this, I will closely monitor market breadth, utilizing it as a key factor in evaluating the probabilities of whether the anticipated correction is likely to be healthy or potentially more severe.
 
 
A mere two weeks ago, the S&P 500 ETF SPY experienced its largest inflow ever. This encapsulates the current state of the S&P 500—a market teetering on the brink of all-time highs, with both retail and professional market participants joining with unwavering enthusiasm— the metaphorical “everyone is in the pool” moment.
 

 The leading observation for my initial 2024 thoughts that the market is ripe for a healthy correction is the condition of market sentiment, and equity exposure. For over a month now the CNN Fear & Greed Index has reported a market operating in greed, Extreme Greed for the last two weeks.
 
The NAAIM Exposure Index measures US equity exposure among active fund managers reported the highest reading for the year, the highest since November 2021. (The Nasdaq peaked in November 2021, and the S&P 500 just over a month later in January 2022). 
 
Source: NAAIM Exposure Index

The following chart of the S&P 500 marks the relative peaks in sentiment and equity exposure using the CNN Fear & Greed Index (marked by red arrows) and the NAAIM Exposure Index (marked by blue arrows). It is a clear observation that the combination of excessive greed and elevated equity exposure have preceded all meaningful declines since the 2022 peak. I do not think it will be different this time.

To end last week’s note I summarized this chart as presenting a compelling argument for selling into greed— I still feel this way. Momentum has propelled the market through the year, however this is recently being subtly being interrupted. In the lower panel of the chart is the Percentage Price Oscillator. This oscillator offers a quick insight into trend momentum. The red dots within the panel signify negative crossover events, a slowdown in momentum.
 
In my analysis, momentum interruption occurs when the initial negative crossover is not succeeded by a corrective price move. Instead, price continues to climb with successive negative crossovers, creating a pattern of interruptions. Based on my observations, the decline that follows such an interruption cycle tends to erase most of the earlier advance.
 

The previous instances of momentum interruptions in August 2021 and July 2022 exhibit an intriguing resemblance to the current scenario, with the index rallying approximately 5% as momentum decelerated. In both cases, the subsequent decline erased most of the earlier advance.
A comparable outcome today would potentially bring the index down to 4550. In my analysis the immediate term has the signals flashing caution towards a 5% decline. If this scenario unfolds, the speculated decline will initially be favored as being one of health that sets the index up for an additional leg higher.
I speculate the correction will have the S&P 500 trade between 4500 - 4600 in the near term. Should this unfold, it will initially provide a healthy technical appearance where price revisits the breakout area.

2024 Economic Forecast │ James Kim

The interest rate changes in the United States trigger international capital movements, which are reflected in the Dow Jones Index, an indicator of such movements. To predict future economic conditions, understanding the trends in U.S. interest rates and the Dow Jones Index can provide insights into both the U.S. and global economies. To comprehend the economic situation from 2023 to 2024, it's observable that the patterns of interest rates and Dow Jones Index during 2006-2007 are similar. The period when the U.S. continuously raises interest rates and then freezes them, leading up to a rate cut, is known as the 'Goldilocks' period, which is typically a phase of a major bull market in stocks.
 
 To aid your understanding, I have specified concrete dates. 
Think of these as reference points, focusing on the patterns and the dates surrounding them.
 
 When interest rates are frozen consecutively three times (Point (d)), the market gains confidence that there will be no further rate hikes. Similar to 2006, when three consecutive rate freezes led to breaking historical highs, the same pattern was observed on December 13, 2023, breaking the historical high of January 4, 2022 (Point (f) ).
 

The peak of the U.S. economy is predicted to be on May 8, 2024, with the U.S. stock market artificially creating a peak for about six months (until the first rate cut). The global economy, with the decline of the U.S. dollar, moves towards a strong bull market in individual countries. The magic of exchange rates creates opportunities for profit through currency differences and stock appreciation, leading to a surge in global stock markets. Global and U.S. stock markets are expected to start declining simultaneously around November 15, 2024 (just before the U.S. rate cut). At this point, the U.S. economy would have been declining for about six months from its peak, while the global economy, excluding the U.S., remains stable.

I believe there are signs of a weakening U.S. economy, which will lead to the start of interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. Eventually, about a year later on December 12, 2025, both the U.S. and the world will face an economic crisis. The peak of the U.S. economy is expected in May, while the global economy is predicted to peak in the second quarter of 2025 [...] I hope you too can achieve favorable outcomes during this time.

(1. - 4.) On August 2, 2023, through my posts, I predicted the breaking of the historical high of the Dow Jones Index and the freezing of U.S. interest rates (the Goldilocks period). I forecasted the peak of the stock market, the timing of the economic crisis, and all phases up to the great depression in 2032. By looking at my past Twitter posts, one can see that the results are following the same patterns exactly as predicted. My posts will be helpful to understand these patterns: 

(1.) Prediction of the 13th and 14th Cycles of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This post outlines my predictions for the 13th and 14th cycles of the U.S. stock market and its potential trajectory. 
(2.) Forecast for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle (Great Depression Period) of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): In this tweet, I discuss the ongoing 15th cycle and its connection to the anticipated great depression period.
(3.) Prediction for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This tweet further elaborates on my predictions for the 14th and current 15th cycle of the U.S. stock market.
(4.) Estimation of the Dow Jones Lowest Point, Interest Rate Freeze (Goldilocks Period), and Major Bull Market (August 3, 2023): This post from August 3, 2023, predicts the lowest point of the Dow Jones, the freezing of interest rates (Goldilocks period), and the onset of a major bull market.

Quoted from:

A Way Of Seeing Infinity │ Benoît Mandelbrot

 
 » Why is geometry often described as 'cold' and 'dry'? One reason lies in its inability to describe the shape of a cloud, a mountain, a coastline, or a tree. Clouds are not spheres, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not circles, and bark is not smooth, nor does lightning travel in a straight line [...] Nature exhibits not simply a higher degree but an altogether different level of complexity [...] Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end. «
 
Benoît MandelbrotFractals: Form, Chance and Dimension, 1977.
 
Infinite Self-Similarity-Zoom.

Sunday, December 31, 2023

The Time of the Civilisational States | Alain de Benoist

Three major models are currently in competition to determine the nature of the Earth’s Nomos, i.e. the New World Order: liberal internationalism, the nation-states born of the Westphalian order and civilisational states.

 » The logic of great spaces does not have a universalist scope. The paradigm is no longer national, but spatial.  «
Carl Schmitt, 1941.
 
The Contradictions of Liberal Internationalism
This shows that the liberal system is trapped in a major contradiction: on the one hand, it is theoretically based on a principled tolerance of all individual choices, which leads it to defend the idea of a necessary ‘neutrality’ of public authorities (in France, this is also the basis of laïcité (1)); on the other hand, it wants to extend its individualistic values to the whole world at all costs, to the detriment of any other value system, which goes against its principle of tolerance. It is not content, for example, to assert the universal and absolute superiority of liberal democracy, but intervenes to impose it everywhere in the world, multiplying interference of all kinds, so what was initially a simple theoretical option becomes the alibi for the most brutal imperialism.

Similarly, in the United States, the Monroe Doctrine (1823) went from a categorical non-interventionism (principle of neutrality) to a moral position giving the United States an unlimited right to interfere. ‘The principle of non-intervention and rejection of foreign powers’, writes Carl Schmitt, ‘has evolved into a justification for US imperialist interventions.’

The Nation-State in the Westphalian Order
The nation-state is conceived as the primary political unit in an international order, enshrined in the United Nations, where each country is supposed to be able to assert itself as sovereign. Rejecting the pluralism inherent in imperial power, it thinks in terms of a single people, a single territory, and a single political community, which is why it has little tolerance for differences and tends to homogenise its internal components.

Liberal Internationalism and the Nation-State
Liberal internationalism is not the principled enemy of nation-states, insofar as these are always susceptible to being colonised by its values – and we know how successful it has been in imposing the principle of universal legitimacy of liberal democracy (which Hayek described as the ‘constitutional protection of capitalism’) and market rules around the world. From a liberal point of view, nation-states are no longer an obstacle to the expansion of global markets. On the political and military level, liberal internationalism does not hesitate to support them when it seems necessary to extend its influence. This is the case today with the war in Ukraine, where the United States is providing massive support to a country that is seeking to become a nation-state because this support is in line with its interests.

Civilisational States as the Fundamental Antagonists
The same cannot be said of the civilisational state, which liberal internationalism considers to be its fundamental enemy because the former is by its very nature opposed to the spread of the values the latter promotes.

Defining Civilisational States
So what are these newcomers, to whom a whole series of authors (2) have given the name ‘civilisational states’? They are regional powers whose influence extends beyond their borders and who conceive the Earth’s Nomos as fundamentally multipolar. Initially, China and Russia, in particular, were considered civilisational states. Still, this qualification can be applied to many other states capable of organising, on the basis of their culture and long history, a sphere of influence extending beyond their national territory or ethnolinguistic group: India, Turkey, and Iran, to name but a few.

Civilisational states oppose Western universalism with a model in which each civilisational grouping has a distinct identity, both in terms of cultural values and political institutions, an identity that cannot be reduced to any universal model. These states do not only want to implement a sovereign policy without submitting to the dictates of supranational elites. They also want to thwart any ‘globalist’ project aimed at making the same principles reign over the whole planet because they are aware that the culture they carry is not identical to any other. This is a reminder that there can be no culture of all cultures.

History, Culture, and the Rejection of Western Standards
A common feature of civilisational states is that they denounce Western universalism as masked ethnocentrism – an elegant way of concealing a hegemonic imperialism. Above all, civilisational states draw on their history and culture, not only to assert that these imply a different political and social model from the one that liberal internationalism seeks to impose but also to derive from them a conception of the world that is deemed to be the foundation of the ‘good life’, both politically and religiously, i.e. of the substantial non-negotiable values that the state has a mission to embody and defend. The civilisational state, in other words, seeks to establish a conception of the good based on particular substantive values and a specific tradition.

Whether ruled by a new tsar, a new emperor, a new caliph, whether this rejection is in the name of the Confucian notion of ‘harmony’, the heritage of ‘holy Russia’ (‘Moscow, the Third Rome’), Eurasianism, Hinduism or the memory of the caliphate, civilisational states refuse to submit to Western standards, which some of them had accepted in the past in order to ‘modernise’ themselves. Westernisation and modernisation no longer automatically go hand in hand.

The Russian philosopher Konstantin Krylov (1967–2020), in his posthumous book Povedenie (‘Behaviour’), published in 2021, describes Russia as a country that has been alien to liberal thinking since its origins. He rejects liberalism but not democracy. Although he became a Zoroastrian during a stay in Uzbekistan, he also stresses the importance of the Orthodox religion. Paul Grenier, who runs the Simone Weil Center for Political Philosophy in the US and recently wrote an essay on him, writes: ‘I don’t know of any conservative Russian intellectuals for whom Russia is part of Western civilization. All of them see in it something separate and different.’
 (3) This was already the opinion of Nikolai Danilevsky and Oswald Spengler, who emphasised the specificity of Russian social behaviour and ethical precepts, starting with ‘ourness’ (in Russian, we do not say ‘my brother and I went for a walk’ but ‘we and my brother went for a walk’).

To the liberal system based on the search for one’s best interest (self-interest), Russia opposes the prerogatives of the sacred, which it refuses to see relegated to the private sphere, while rejecting the neutrality of the state in matters of values. It is therefore understandable that in Ukraine, Russia not only defends the idea that this country cannot become a nation-state because it belongs to the Slavic civilisational space but also fights against the logic of the nation-state itself, the proponents of a purely secular vision of the world, the liberal values of the ‘collective West’, which are perceived as ‘decadent’, and the American hegemonism backed by the liberal system.

Historical Precursors: The Kyoto School
In the past, the Kyōto School, founded in 1941 by Nishida Kitarō (1870–1945) and Tanabe Hajime, was probably the first, long before any decolonisation movements, to develop the idea of a multipolar world, divided into great distinct spaces considered as melting pots of culture and civilisation, and to criticise the abstract principles of Western universalism – based on capitalism and scientism – in the name of the plurality of cultures characteristic of the ‘real world’ (sekaiteki sekai).

The main representatives of this school were philosophers, such as Kōsaka Masaaki, Kōyama Iwao, Nishitani Keiji and Suzuki Shigetaka. The European thinkers who seem to have had the most significant impact on them were Johann Gottfried von Herder and Leopold von Ranke. In recent times, the ideas of the Kyōto School have also been linked to those of communitarian writers such as Charles Taylor and Alasdair MacIntyre.
 (4) It was in this circle that the idea of a ‘sphere of co-prosperity of the greater East Asia’ was elaborated, bringing together several countries based on shared values and respect for their autonomy. This idea should not be confused with the ‘Japanocentrism’ of the nationalist Right or with Japanese imperialism of the same era. As early as June 1943, official censorship ordered silence on the school’s publications, precisely reproaching it for wanting to assign to the Japanese government a mission that was not identical to mere imperialist expansion.

The Chinese Tianxia Tradition
In today’s China, members of the Tianxia School should also be mentioned, such as Zhao Tingyang, historian Xu Jilin, Xu Zhuoyun, Wang Gungwu, and Liang Zhiping, who advocates ‘using China to explain China’ (yĭ zhōngguó jiěshì zhōngguó) – with possibly Jiang Shigong, a proponent of ‘Chinese-style socialism’ added to the list.

Its theorists refer to the central notion of tianxia (‘all under heaven’) 
(5), a spiritual principle of premodern China whose institutional body was the Celestial Empire. This polysemic term, used since before the time of Laozi and Confucius, refers to an ideal civilisational order, a spatial imaginary in which China constitutes the core, a hierarchised order in which the ‘virtue’ of its members determines the place they must occupy, and a political system meant to guarantee the harmony of the whole. According to Zhao Tingyang, it is a ‘dense concept, where metaphysics as political philosophy replaces metaphysics as ontology as the first philosophy’, (6) which asserts that cultures are incomparable in terms of values and that China must escape from Eurocentrism and fully assume its role as the Middle Kingdom.

For Xu Jilin, ‘the origin of the [current] crisis is nothing but the mentality that gives absolute supremacy to the nation’. ‘To really deal with the root of the problem’, he adds, ‘we need a form of thinking that can serve as a counterpoint to nationalism. I call this thinking the “new tianxia“, a pearl of axial civilisational wisdom from China’s premodern tradition, reinterpreted according to modern criteria.’

The way in which, since the 1990s, the Chinese authorities, claiming to have ‘Asian values’, have rejected criticism in the name of the human rights ideology is significant. In January 2021, at the Davos Forum, Xi Jinping said, 
‘Just as no two leaves in the world are the same, no two histories, no two cultures, no two social systems are the same. Each country is unique in all these areas, and no country is superior to another. There is no need to worry about differences, but rather … about attempts to impose a hierarchy between civilisations or to force some of them to align themselves with another in terms of history, culture or social system.’
Towards a Multipolar Order of Civilisations
The recognition of the crisis of universalism and Western hegemonism thus goes hand in hand with the feeling that the era of the international order based on the conflicting balance of nation-states has ended, as Carl Schmitt foresaw as early as the 1930s. (7) The rise of civilisational states signals the entry into an era in which the world order is no longer reduced to the unstable equilibrium of nation-states. As civilisational norms become a pivotal point in geopolitics, the main competition is no longer the traditional one between nation-states but the one between civilisations. Civilisational states give rise to a new mode of sovereignty that is no longer that of nation-states.

Singular versus Plural Conceptions of ‘Civilisation’
A vocabulary remark is in order here. It concerns the key notion of ‘civilisation’, which is not without its ambiguities, to say the least. Samuel P. Huntington understood that the meaning of the word differs entirely depending on whether it is used in the singular or the plural. It is no coincidence that Huntington’s book The Clash of Civilizations (1996) was translated into German as Kampf der Kulturen. In Germany, a whole tradition sees Kultur as the very opposite of Zivilisation. Spengler, for example, saw ‘civilisation’ as the terminal stage of the great cultures.

Liberals always claim to ‘defend civilisation’, which, in their eyes, equates to the logic of individual rights and the market. To them, civilisation must be understood in the singular, and it is liberal democracies that embody it. Anyone who deviates from it is no longer part of the ‘civilised world’, and those who refuse to comply with this model are immediately delegitimised and denounced as ‘authoritarian powers’ and antidemocratic, as if liberal democracy were the only possible form of democracy. This idea of a singular civilisation legitimized colonisation in the past before inspiring the speculations of a Fukuyama on the ‘end of history’ in a world purged of all power relations. For civilisational states, on the contrary, civilisations (or cultures) are only conceived in the plural. Civilisational states do not defend ‘civilisation’ itself but their civilization.

Civilisational States, Empires, and Schmitt’s Großraum
One can also question to what extent civilisational states have taken over from empires, traditionally defined as multinational or even multicultural states governing on a vast territory peoples whose local autonomy is generally respected as long as they accept the common law determined by the central power.

The notion of the civilisational state is even more reminiscent of the ‘great space’ (Großraum) theorised by Carl Schmitt to rethink international relations beyond the codification of relations between nation-states. A ‘great space’, Schmitt says, requires a ‘great people’, a vast territory and an autonomous political will. ‘Empires’, he writes, ‘are those ruling powers that carry a political idea radiating out into a determined great space from which they exclude, as a matter of principle, the interventions of foreign powers.’ And he adds this essential reminder: ‘The empire is more than an enlarged state, just as the great space is not just an enlarged micro-space.’ ‘The logic of great spaces does not have a universalist scope. It only integrates the historical evolution of the great territorial powers influencing third countries. The paradigm is therefore no longer national, but spatial.’ (8)

Europe as a Contested and Neutralised Space
As for Europe, which has been culturally and ideologically hybrid for two millennia, it is for the moment only a neutralised space where opposing civilisational conceptions clash.
Footnotes
(1) Trans.: La laïcité is a French concept that advocates for the separation of religion and state, ensuring equal treatment and freedom of belief for all individuals.
(2) Christopher Coker, The Rise of the Civilizational State. London: Polity, 2019.
(3) ‘Konstantin Krylov’s Ethical Theory and What It Reveals about the Propensity for Conflict between Russia and the West’, in Telos 201 (Winter 2022), p. 112.
(4) Kenn Steffensen, ‘The Political Thought of the Kyoto School’, in Michiko Yusa (ed.), The Bloomsbury Research Handbook of Contemporary Japanese Philosophy, New York: Bloomsbury, 2017. See also John W. M. Krummel, ‘The Kyoto School’s Wartime Philosophy of a Multipolar World’, in Telos 201 (Winter 2022), pp. 63-83.
(5) Tianxia is said to have reached its golden age at the time of the Duke of Zhou, a military leader and writer who lived in the 11th century BC and is sometimes presented as the founder of Confucianism, although he lived several centuries before Confucius.
(6) ‘La philosophie du tianxia’, in Diogène, 2008, 1, pp. 4-25. See also Zhao Tingyang, Tianxia, tout sous le même ciel [2016], Paris: Cerf, 2018.
(7) Amitav Acharya, The End of American World Order, Cambridge: Polity, 2014; Oliver Stuenkel, Post-Western World: How Emerging Powers Are Remaking Global Order, Cambridge: Polity, 2016. See also Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, New York: Penguin Press, 2009; Charles Horner, Rising China and Its Postmodern Fate, Athens: University of Georgia Press, 2009.
(8) Karl Peyrade, ‘Le droit des peuples réglé sur le grand espace de Carl Schmitt’, online text, 23 May 2017.