1986-2024 S&P 500 Index Analog Projection into Early December

On a day to day basis the analog between S&P 500 closing prices of 1986 and 2024 had a 95% positive correlation over the past 180 trading days, which is the period since the beginning of 2024. Of course, only time will tell whether this correlation continues. With that in mind, the analog projects the upcoming swing highs and lows for the month of October to be more or less in line with Jeff Hirsch's average seasonal chart for October in election years: From the latest all-time high of September 26, the next swing low is projected to occur on October 9 (Wed), followed by a high on October 18 (Fri), and a potentially lower low around October 23-25 (Wed-Fri). Then a rally is expected to occur into November 29 (Fri). Note that in this context, direction is more important than price levels. The average S&P 500 return during October was slightly positive between 1950 and 2023, with 45 up years and 29 down years, and an average return of 0.75%.

Seth Golden is extremely optimistic about 2025: "From September 2023 to September 2024, the S&P 500 has been up greater than 30%. Historically, when the S&P 500 >25% over the trailing 12 months or more into a rate cut, stocks have NEVER been lower a year later and up close to +20% on average. There is no soft landing if there is no landing at all in 2025, and by all accounts the setup is clear!"  

 

A potential fly in the ointment for all of the above bullish outlook is Sergey Tarassov's long-term cycle analysis. He suggested that the 41-month Kitchin Cycle in US stocks would peak between June and October 2024, and be followed by a decline into December 2025-January 2026.  

 

That said, from a narrower medium-term Hurst cycle perspective, August 5 marked the low of a 40-week cycle. The market is now trending upward toward the next 40 week cycle's peak, and the last quarter of 2024 may very well conclude with new all-time highs.

Hypocrisies and Projections of a House Negro | UK FM David Lammy

 

 » What's the matter, boss, we sick? «

UK FM David Lammy, at the High-Level UN Security Council Meeting on Ukraine

— September 25, 2024.

 

 

 Malcolm X: The House Negro and the Field Negro — 1965.

 

 » Retire, and beg yourself for forgiveness.« 

— Scott Ritter, September 26, 2024.

 

Reference:

UK Foreign Minister Lammy’s Full Address at the High-Level UN Security Council Meeting on Ukraine
 — September 25, 2024.

Looming US Supply Chains Shock in October 2024 | Lena Petrova

A devastating supply chain crisis is looming in the US, with 85,000 dock workers at 36 ports planning to start their strike on October 1st, demanding better pay and work conditions. This would impact 45-49% of US imports, affecting the entire country's port volume by over 40%. The strike would shut down five of the ten busiest ports in North America, including New York and New Jersey, which are already preparing for the strike. The strike is expected to cause shortages and delays, including retail, automotive, semiconductors, medicine and essentials, and a rise in prices due to consistent demand. A similar 11-day strike in 2002 caused the US economy to lose close to $1 billion daily and resulted in six months worth of backlogs.

 
US prepares for October Surprises.

Trade groups representing retailers, restaurants, and manufacturers are urging the administration to reverse its position, fearing severe economic impact. The International Monetary Fund warns of global trade fragmentation, making supply chains more vulnerable to disruptions. The situation is critical, with 25,000 workers prepared to strike, and negotiations between the union and US Maritime Alliance at a standstill. The White House has stated it will not prevent labor action at the ports. A strike would have long-term effects on the US economy, and its timing, just weeks prior to the November presidential elections, raises additional concerns.

Reference:

Lena Petrova (September 25, 2024) - Nearly 50% of ALL US Imports to Halt Due to Massive Port Strikes on October 1st. (video)

Who Is Fighting With Whom and Why | Alexander Dugin

Israel, having dealt with Gaza, that is, having organized a mass genocide of the civilian population in front of the whole world, began a full-fledged war with Lebanon. Just as in Gaza the Israelis preferred to claim that they were fighting Hamas, and not the Palestinians as a whole (as was actually the case), so now Netanyahu is talking about countering Hezbollah, having started massive rocket attacks and carpet bombing of the civilian population of a sovereign country - Lebanon. This is a war in the fullest sense of the word. And the West fully supports Israel's aggression.

  » He demands victory over the civilizational enemy. He demands that Carthage be destroyed. «

 

At the same time, the West wants to secure the full loyalty of its allies in the Islamic world and is now trying to create a Middle Eastern analogue of NATO with the UAE. Türkiye is already in NATO, but Ankara is outraged by Israel and traditionally supports Hamas, so the ally is not very reliable. Hence the globalists came up with the idea of ​​​​attracting Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to a tough military alliance. Iran is still on the sidelines, but the start of a massive aggressive military campaign against Hezbollah is a direct attack on Iran and the Shiite world as a whole. The second front after the Ukrainian one between unipolar hegemony and strengthening multipolarity can be considered open. The West is fighting Russia with the hands of Ukrainian Nazis, and the Shiites with the hands of Israeli Nazis. And it is ready to start a war with China with the hands of Taiwanese Nazis. Simultaneously, NATO is going to throw additional European armies at Russia, Sunni armies at Iran and Lebanon, and insure Taiwan with an alliance with India, Japan, and South Korea. If all this is not the third world war, then what is it?

 

The situation in world politics is increasingly converging with the classic maps of geopolitics. Now the confrontation between the Civilization of the Sea and the Civilization of Land is so clear and contrasting that underestimating geopolitical science is fraught with direct catastrophe. Only geopolitics explains everything clearly and intelligibly. Who is fighting with whom and why. And where is the intermediate frontier separating civilizations and camps. It was geopolitics that could have prevented the collapse of the USSR, while the ideological approach led to the collapse of a great power, did not work at a critical moment. In the 1990s, the agents of Western influence, which almost established external control over Russia, were hiding behind the economy and reforms. They were the ones who made efforts to discredit geopolitics. And this was fatal, and NATO expanded to the East unhindered. In the USA, geopolitics was studied and acted strictly according to its patterns, but we were forbidden. Instead of geopolitical thought, moral decay, predatory enrichment, poisonous humor and mass feeble mindedness were implanted in Russia.

 

  Carl Schmitt (1942) - Land and Sea: A World-Historical Meditation.

 

Putin was the first to pay attention to geopolitics. And Russia began to see the light. That is, to understand more soberly what was really happening in international relations. But it was not easy to get out from under the hypnosis of liberals, economists and Westerners. It took time. The Russian authorities only really began to understand the laws and rules of geopolitics with the start of the New World Order. And not all of them. Putin, of course. But even in the education system of the Ministry of Defense, geopolitics is not given its due place. Yes, some idea of ​​it is given now, but very approximate. But it should not be like that: all military personnel, especially the officer corps, should definitely be familiar with the basics of geopolitics and pass the geopolitical minimum. The same applies to the entire managerial elite of the country. Yes, geopolitics is taught in many universities. But it should be taught in all of them and with an emphasis on it. It compactly and simply explains the world in which we live and the meaning of the war we are waging.
 

Putin once answered a question at the Valdai Club from Chinese professor Feng Shaolei about the basis on which he makes his main decisions: on the basis of geopolitics. The Chinese have heard this answer, the Russians have not. But they should. I am convinced that what is needed now, along with historical education, is mass geopolitical education. Following the military, the employees of the Presidential Administration and the Government must pass the geopolitical minimum, and then from top to bottom, right down to the governors and their staff, and all strategically important departments and ministries through and through. It will not take much time. A couple of textbooks and a short test of 10-12 questions. Only then will it become truly clear what the Supreme Ruler demands of them. And he demands victory over the civilizational enemy - outside and inside, or at least the creation of prerequisites for it. Victory of the Civilization of the Land (Third Rome) over the Civilization of the Sea (New Carthage). He demands that Carthage be destroyed, and geopolitics clearly explains why.

Quoted from:
Alexander Dugin via Telegram — September 23, 2024.

See also:
Alexander Dugin (2019) - Geopolitics: Theories, Concepts, Schools, and Debates.

Alexander Dugin (1997) - The Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia.

S&P 500 Election Year Pattern during Fourth Years of a Decade, 1904 - 2024

Seasonal Pattern of the S&P 500 in U.S. Election Years during Fourth Years of a Decade (1904-2024): Composite Line of Election Years (1904, 1924, 1944, 1964, 1984, and 2004; based on daily closes from Stooq) vs. S&P 500 Performance from January 1 to September 27, 2024 (y-axis scale: percentages).

Same values with different scaling of the y-axis.

See also:

Wayne Whaley (September 21, 2024) - S&P 500 in Q4 After New 12-Month High in September.

Tom McClellan (March 29, 2024) - Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for US Stock Market.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2020) - Election-Year October Market Performance Volatile since 1950.

2016 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA — January 5, 2016.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.

Israel’s Reckless Pager Operation: Who Can We Trust And Rely On? | Shen Yi

I've been studying international relations and politics for decades, and I'm shocked by this pager attack in Lebanon. This is not something a normal country would do; it's way past the moral red line of international norms. What we're looking at is a commercial electronic device, the pager, being modified into a military-style mini-grenade. Even though the operation targets Hezbollah members, the action is equivalent to igniting several cluster bombs in a market populated with Hezbollah members, their families, and other innocent civilians.

 » This is truly evil and shocking ... they've proven themselves willing to do outrageous, immoral things. «

Shen Yi, Director at Research Center for the Governance of Global Cyberspace, Fudan University.

 

The psychological effect of this operation is similar to the earliest Batman movie, where the Joker randomly poisoned hygiene products to create chaos in Gotham City. This isn't even using the pager to collect intel and destroy evidence. This can be considered a mass terrorist operation. It's like putting poison in bottled water and exporting it to your enemy city, expecting enemy soldiers to drink it, and disregarding innocent victims, oh well, sucks to be them.

 » Children lost their eyes while playing in the street. Mothers lost their limbs while shopping in a mall.
Doctors suffered severe injuries while driving to a hospital. This is horror and cruelty beyond imagination. «
China representative to the UN.

Assuming Israel's involvement, considering their current strike against Lebanon, there are two possibilities for this mass bombing. Either the bomb was installed during manufacturing in Taiwan, possibly through a joint operation between Taiwan and Israel, or the middleman modified the device. In China, Jewish people are considered the smartest and most cunning of all the peoples on this planet. Modifying this device into a bomb and activating it in mass volume is truly evil and shocking. However, I also consider this operation stupid and reckless, ignoring consequences and hiding behind the United States. The operation against Iran's nuclear enrichment facility might be within the rules of engagement, but this pager bombing is unacceptable. The United States swapped out hospital devices before the operation, showing awareness. The United States, Israel, and Taiwan governments remain quiet. 

 

How can we trust products from these regions in the future? This has impacted global supply chain trust. China now understands why the US considers Huawei cell phones and network devices national security issues - because they think China is as evil and immoral as they are. The problem isn't technical feasibility; today's technology makes it easy. The problem is who crosses the moral red line. Israel, backed by the United States, has shown willingness to cross it. This is a dangerous psychological barrier. 

 

How will China assure consumers of safety when buying US and Israel products? Shouldn't these products be inspected for tampering, with the US and Israel paying additional costs? This isn't unfair competition; they've proven themselves willing to do outrageous, immoral things. China can't wait until 5,000 Apple cell phones blow up to set up security. Considering the US views China as its biggest rival, China needs its own products, supply chain, communication, and banking systems. It's no longer about Chinese or US-made CPU preferences; it's about foreign entities willing to weaponize devices against you. It's not about faster cell phones; it's about safety. Maybe the quality of some Chinese products still lag behind, but we can tell the world we won't make products that explode intentionally. That should be a new standard. 

 

This chain of events shows that peace, safety, stability, and prosperity - elements of a great society - are rare globally. Many Chinese took these for granted. I believe China should lead promoting peace, growth, and stability around the world.

Quoted from:
Shen Yi (September 21, 2024) - Chinese response to Lebanon Pager Attack. (video)

S&P 500 in Q4 After New 12-Month High in September | Wayne Whaley

On Thursday, September 19, the S&P 500 closed at a new twelve-month high as well as an all-time high. Since 1950, there have been twenty-nine years in which a twelve-month high was set in September.

In those twenty-nine prior cases, the fourth quarter was twenty-four wins and five losses, resulting in an average quarterly gain of 4.17 percent. The weakest period in the fourth quarter, on average, was from October 20 to 27, during which that week experienced twelve one-percent losses and only two gains of over one percent.

 

The sweet spot was from October 27 to December 5, which recorded twenty-five wins and four losses, with three percent moves being fifteen wins and zero losses. The last twenty instances, dating back to 1967, have followed this pattern.

 

Reference:

Wayne Whaley (September 21, 2024) - A New Twelve-Month High in September.

 

 

 

 

William J. O’Neil's Cup & Handle continuation pattern.

See also:

Wayne Whaley (September 14, 2024) - September 19-26 Weakest Seasonal S&P Week of the Year.   

Wayne Whaley (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 17, 2024) - September Quarterly Options Expiration Week Dodgy, Week After Dreadful. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 5, 2024) - S&P 500 September 2024 Seasonality.

S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025 | Jeff Hirsch

We are revising our 15-Year Projection chart. This was first drawn in 2011 when our book Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (Wiley) hit the stores. The projection was based upon, drawn from, years of historical patterns and data. In the years to follow numerous unprecedented events occurred, the Fed held its key lending rate in a range of 0 to 0.25% for an incredible seven years, under took multiple rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and essentially pledged unwavering support for the market. Many other nations and central banks around the world were taking similar or even more aggressive steps to support their own economies and markets. Negative interest rates and negative yields on 10-year bonds are not what we consider normal.
 

 

 

Our current updated projection is illustrated in the red line in the chart. In keeping with the history of market performance in pre-election years and the current trajectory of the indices, it would not surprise us for the market to continue rising through April make new high here in Q2, then pause over the weaker summer months before hitting higher highs toward yearend. Next year promises to be an embattled election year and the likelihood of another significant correction or even a bear market are higher.

 

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 11, 2019) - Super Boom Is Underway!

 

 

 David Hickson: Hurst Cycle Projection for NASDAQ and S&P 500 — September 9, 2024.

 

 Jeffrey A. Hirsch: S&P 500 after Quadruple Witching Week — September 17, 2024.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch: S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for September 2024 — September 5, 2024.

   

Jeffrey A. Hirsch: S&P 500 Seasonal Election Year Pattern for 2024 — February 28, 2024.

 

Robert Miner: S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle — April 25, 2024.

 

 Ned Davis: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2024 — February 2, 2024.

 

Ned Davis: DJIA Presidential Cycle 2024 to 2027 — December 29, 2023. 

 

Ned Davis: Unprecedented Times vs DJIA Election Cycle — August 14, 2024.

 

Nautilus Research: Full View of the S&P 500 Election Cycle — September 1, 2022.

 

  Moore Research: S&P 500 23 Year Seasonal (1997-2019) — January 2, 2020.

Larry Williams: 2024 US Stock Market Outlook — December 15, 2023.

 

 Ned Davis: DJIA Decennial Cycle for 2021-2030 — February 2, 2024.

 

seasonax: DJIA Decennial Cycle & 4 Year Election Cycle — 2024.

 

September Quadruple Witching Week Dodgy, Week After Dreadful | Jeff Hirsch

Since the S&P index futures began trading on April 21, 1982, stock options, index options as well as index futures all expire at the same time four times each year in March, June, September [20 - Fri], and December. September’s quarterly option expiration week has been up 54.8% of the time for S&P 500 since 1982. DJIA and NASDAQ have slightly weaker track records with gains 52.4% of the time and 52.4% respectively.

However, the week has suffered several sizable losses. The worst loss followed the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. In the last twenty-one years, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are tied for best record during September’s quarterly option expiration week, up thirteen times, but NASDAQ has been down the last six straight. Friday had been firm with all three indices advancing every year 2004 to 2011, but S&P 500 has been down 11 of the last 12 and NASDAQ has been down 10 of the last 12 since.

S&P 500 Down 27 of 34 Week After September Quarterly Options Expiration, Average Loss 1.06%

The week after September options expiration week, has a dreadful history of declines most notably since 1990. The week after September quarterly options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 34 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just four times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses. In 2022 DJIA and S&P 500 declined over 4% while NASDAQ fell 5.07%.

Full stats are the sea-of-red in the tables here. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.09%, S&P 500 –1.06%, NASDAQ –1.06%. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer holdings and position for the fourth quarter.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 17, 2024) - September Quarterly Options Expiration Week Dodgy, Week After Dreadful.

See also:

Wayne Whaley (September 14, 2024) - September 19-26 Weakest Seasonal S&P Week of the Year.   

David Hickson (September 12, 2024) - Hurst Cycle Projection for the NASDAQ and S&P 500.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 5, 2024) - S&P 500 September 2024 Seasonality.

September 19-26 Weakest Seasonal S&P Week of the Year | Wayne Whaley

The weekly performance measure used for comparison is an average of the weeks of interest over the last 50 years, which,

1. Underweights outliers that can distort averages and overweights the observations congregating more toward

     the median and,
2. Weights the most recent years 2 to 1 vs those 50 years prior. 

 

 Wayne Whaley @ X — September 14, 2024.

 

See also:

Wayne Whaley (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October.  

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 5, 2024) - S&P 500 September 2024 Seasonality.

Don't Panic in or out of a Market | Robert Miner

Beware of FOMO. Don't Panic in or out of a Market. Learn to identify probable market position, specific trade opportunities and trade management.

 

ES U24 - daily closes.

» A "daily" high is likely early next week, followed by a 4-5 day or so decline. «

 

ES U24 - weekly bars.

 » ES is likely to be mostly trendless for another week or two. When the two momentum cycles are 

aligned, a consistent trend will follow. The resolution is likely to eventually be to the upside. «

 Robert Miner @ X — September 14, 2024. 

 

» Don't Panic ! «

Robert Miner @ X — September 4, 2024.

 

See also:

Robert Miner (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Uptrend May Extend to 5,800 Into Equinox.