Iris Treppner's DAX Forecast 2012-2021 - Update

HERE

DJIA In 4th Longest Bull Market Since 1900 - UBS: Sell Stocks, Buy Gold!

Bear markets are defined by a market decline of 20% and more. It’s a fact that since its March 2009 low, with 82 months and a performance of 220%, the DJIA now trades in its 4th longest and 5th strongest bull market since 1900. So from this angle alone we suggest the 2009 bull cycle has reached a mature stage [...] since 1937 the average downside in a 7-year cycle decline was 34%. 

[...] As of 2017, gold could profit from the US dollar moving in a major top and starting a bear market [...] In 2015, the bounce in gold was weaker than expected. However, in all these cases we made it clear that we just expect a bear market rally before resuming its dominant cyclical bear trend. Generally, our cyclical roadmap and our long-term call on gold of the last few years has not changed. A potential bottom in 2016 bottom could be a rather powerful bottom, since together with a four-year cycle low we have also an eight-year cycle low projection for this year. In this context we expect a potential 2016 low in gold to be the basis of a new multi-year bull market. Source: UBS (Jan 06, 2016)

SPX vs Declination of Mercury + Venus

Mercury parallel Venus

2016 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA

Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 10 (56%) out of 18 times in the 6th year of every decade, and the average annual gain of a 6th year was 3.74%. Since the 1970s the DJIA gained 16% to 26% during the 6th year of each decade. On average the DJIA's 6th year in the Decennial Cycle, the Annual or Seasonal Cycle and the Presidential Cycle are all positive. In the average Decennial Cycle the DJIA scores the Low of the 6th Year in late January, rises into mid July, drops into September, before surging for the rest of the year. The Presidential Cycle drops from an early January High to a late February Low, rises into early April, drops to late May, rises again into early September, drops to early October before rising into the year-end.

Credits: Seasonal Charts

Credits: www.realinvestmentadvice.com

When Not To Put Money In The Bank - Negative Interest Rates in Europe

econfix (Jan 4, 2016) - It seems that in Europe negative interest rates are common place. Below are the current rates of some central banks:
 

European Central Bank -0.3%
Swiss National Bank -0.75%;
Danish Central bank -0.75%
Swedish Central Bank -1.1%

Why are they in negative territory? For all these countries it is the exchange rate against the Euro that is important. Negative interest rates weaken a country’s currency and make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. Furthermore central banks could be trying to prevent a slide into deflation, or a spiral of falling prices that could derail the recovery.

In theory, interest rates below zero should reduce borrowing costs for companies and households, driving demand for loans. In practice, there’s a risk that the policy might do more harm than good. If banks make more customers pay to hold their money, cash may go under the mattress instead. Janet Yellen, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, said at her confirmation hearing in November 2013 that even a deposit rate that’s positive but close to zero could disrupt the money markets that help fund financial institutions. Two years later, she said that a change in economic circumstances could put negative rates “on the table” in the U.S., and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he could now cut the benchmark rate below the current 0.5 percent if necessary. Deutsche Bank economists note that negative rates haven’t sparked the bank runs or cash hoarding some had feared, in part because banks haven’t passed them on to their customers. But there’s still a worry that when banks absorb the cost themselves, it squeezes the profit margin between their lending and deposit rates, and might make them even less willing to lend. Ever-lower rates also fuel concern that countries are engaged in a currency war of competitive devaluations. Source: Bloomberg

Changes In Earth’s Day Length

www.everythingselectric.com (Dec 19, 2015)

"An ‘Earth Day’ is 24 hours long, and that more precisely it is 23 hours 56 minutes and 4 seconds long. But this hasn’t always been the case. Detailed studies of fossil shells, and the banded deposits in certain sandstones, reveal a much different length of day in past eras! These bands in sedimentation and shell-growth follow the lunar month and have individual bands representing the number of days in a lunar month. By counting the number of bands, geologists can work out the number of days in a year, and from this the number of hours in a day when the shell was grown, or the deposits put down." Credits: NASA

Immanuel Velikovsky: Worlds in Collision - HERE

China In Africa

Credits: South China Morning Post (Dec 18, 2015) - Enlarge

While the United States wastes billions on ill-advised foreign adventures and destabilizing wars of choice, China has slowly been accumulating a massive amount of resources around the world. Over the last decade, China has increasingly poured billions of dollars of foreign direct investment capital into Africa. China has now invested in 46 of 54 African countries, mainly with a focus on metals, energy, and infrastructure. So far, 2013 has been the peak of Chinese investment, with the equivalent of USD 44 billion spent. Investments in 2015 up until June have totaled USD 17.8 billion, and are on pace to reach USD 42 billion by the end of this year. 

In fact, just last week, South Africa hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in Johannesburg for the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). During the conference, the Chinese President announced the budget for African cooperation would be tripled to a USD 60 billion package. This includes USD 5 billion of aid and interest-free loans, USD 35 billion of preferential loans and export credit, and USD 20 billion of capital to be divided between three Africa-focused funds. China's overall trade with Africa topped USD 200 billion last year but has slowed over the past two years as the weakening Chinese economy demands fewer of the continent's oil, copper and other raw materials. Chinese-built roads, bridges and power installations are found across Africa, often paid for in resources or through loans from China. There are about a million Chinese living in Africa, mostly engaged in commercial work, according to the Chinese General Chamber of Commerce in Africa.

Natural Gas

In December 2005 Natural Gas traded at USD 15.78, and is now at its 17-year low at USD 1.79.
Natural Gas has been in a downtrend over the last two years and lost 73% of its value.
The average seasonal low should print in the first week of January January 2016.
The 4 Lunar Month cycle projects lows for Dec 20 (Sun), Dec 29 (Fri), and Jan 5 (Tue).

NDX - Repetitive Patterns

Oscar Carboni HERE

Mimicking The Sun - Wendelstein 7-X Helium Plasma Fusion

Fusion at 150 million degrees, promising cheap,
almost inexhaustible supply of energy

Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (Dec 10, 2015) - The first test of the "stellarator" has been carried out with the Wendelstein 7-X fusion device producing helium plasma. A breakthrough, according to the press release. However, horrendously expensive fusion technology and the promise for future cheap, limitless and clean energy have been entertained ever since the 1950s. Still physicists are in a worldwide race to create stable fusion devices that could not only mimic the Sun but release abundant energy, without the volumes of toxic waste generated by nuclear fission. This time around it took scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics in Greifswald, Germany, nine years to build the EUR 1.1 billion machine, and they have spent over a year preparing for the test. Another milestone? Fusion involves placing hydrogen atoms under high heat and pressure until they fuse into helium atoms. When Deuterium and Tritium nuclei - which can be found in hydrogen - fuse, they form a helium nucleus, a neutron and a lot of energy. This is done by heating the fuel to temperatures in excess of 150 million°C, forming a hot plasma. Strong magnetic fields are used to keep the plasma away from the walls so that it doesn't cool down and loses its energy potential. These are produced by superconducting coils surrounding the vessel, and by an electrical current driven through the plasma. For energy production plasma has to be confined for a sufficiently long period for fusion to occur. Europe has a large track record in fusion: Europe’s JET (Joint European Torus) located at Culham (UK) is the world’s largest fusion facility and was so far the only one capable of working with a Deuterium-Tritium fuel mixture. Reportedly JET has reached all its originally planned objectives and in some cases surpassed them. In 1997 it achieved a world record fusion power production of 16 MW and a Q = 0.65. Europe has also been building on the knowledge accumulated through the Tore Supra tokamak in France, the first large tokamak to use superconducting magnets; the ASDEX device in Germany with ITER-shaped plasmas; the reversed pinch device RFX in Italy and the stellarators TJ-II in Spain and the W7-X in Germany.

Glenn Neely’s "5th Extension Terminal Impulse"

Just picked that up somewhere - good ol' Neely - always good toremember everything is possible under NEo-Wave Rules :-)

Credits: Doug Short

Insiders are still buying this market. Credits: Barron's

SPX vs Sunspots

The inverted Sunspots shifted +2 days oftentimes correlate with the stock market, and suggest: from a Monday low up into Tuesday.

The inverted Sunspots shifted +49 days hint to the current cycle's and the market's likely future direction.

The Planetary A Index < 10 is usually negative for the stock market; the inverted 10.7 cm Flux usually forecasts the market's direction.

SPX vs Sun - Jupiter Cycle

The Sun square Jupiter on Monday morning 09:55 should help the market to stay positive for the day. Last Friday was a minor Bradley turn-day,
and the solunar bias as well as the 4 Lunar Month Cycle are both up on Monday, and down from Tuesday into Friday. There is little doubt about
the FOMC announcing higher rates on Wednesday. However, on Wednesday morning 02:09 the Sun will pass a sensitive degree on the NYSE Natal-
Chart at 24° Sagittarius. Dec 15, 17 and 18 are Cosmic cluster Days. Given the Jupiter-Saturn Cycle bottoms the same day, options expiration
Friday in this average-seasonally bullish week should finally be up. Another week with high volatility and choppiness should be expected.
Here's another interesting detail: Since 1990 when the SPX has closed lower by more than 1.5% on a Friday, Monday saw a lower low on an
intraday basis 86 of 90 times (HERE) Calculated and charted with Timing Solution

Crude Oil

Crude Oil lost 67% since it broke down from the triangle (B) in June 2014. Seasonally Crude Oil is at a low in December-January, and the
4 Lunar Month Cycle is pointing to a low on Dec 20 (Sun). Next week a test of the December 2009 low (A) at USD 32.40 is likely before the
countertrend kicks in to send prices up to USD 45+ again. If (C) would have the magnitude of (A), it would send Crude Oil down to USD -4.19.
Though a collapse down to the lows of 1986 and 1998 around USD 10 is technically possible, the 0.886 Fib-retracement level at USD 25.37
looks like a solid support for a major low in 2017-2018. See also HERE

The Same, The Other, And The Essence │ Theology of Arithmetic

“One, two, three [...] Let me tell you then why the creator made this world of generation. He was good [...] He took the three elements of the same, the other, and the essence, and mingled them into one form, compressing by force the reluctant and unsociable nature of the other into the same. When he had mingled them with the essence and out of three made one, he again divided this whole into as many portions as was fitting, each portion being a compound of the same, the other, and the essence. And he proceeded to divide after this manner: 

First of all, he took away one part of the whole [1], and then he separated a second part which was double the first [2], and then he took away a third part which was half as much again as the second and three times as much as the first [3], and then he took a fourth part which was twice as much as the second [4], and a fifth part which was three times the third [9], and a sixth part which was eight times the first [8], and a seventh part which was twenty-seven times the first [27]. After this he filled up the double intervals [1, 2, 4, 8] and the triple [1, 3, 9, 27] cutting off yet other portions from the mixture and placing them in the intervals, so that in each interval there were two kinds of means, the one exceeding and exceeded by equal parts of its extremes [1, 4/3, 2, in which the mean 4/3 is one-third of 1 more than 1, and 1/3 of 2 less than 2], the other being that kind of mean which exceeds and is exceeded by an equal number. Where there were intervals of 3/2 and of 4/3 and of 9/8, made by the connecting terms in the former intervals, he filled up all the intervals of 4/3 with the interval of 9/8, leaving a fraction over; and the interval which this fraction expressed was in the ratio of 256 to 243. And thus the whole mixture out of which he cut these portions was all exhausted by him.

This entire compound he divided lengthways into two parts, which he joined to one another at the center like the letter X, and bent them into a circular form, connecting them with themselves and each other at the point opposite to their original meeting-point; and, comprehending them in a uniform revolution upon the same axis, he made the one the outer and the other the inner circle. Now the motion of the outer circle he called the motion of the same, and the motion of the inner circle the motion of the other or diverse. The motion of the same he carried round by the side to the right, and the motion of the diverse diagonally to the left. And he gave dominion to the motion of the same and like, for that he left single and undivided; but the inner motion he divided in six places and made seven unequal circles having their intervals in ratios of two-and three, three of each, and bade the orbits proceed in a direction opposite to one another; and three [Sun, Mercury, Venus] he made to move with equal swiftness, and the remaining four [Moon, Saturn, Mars, Jupiter] to move with unequal swiftness to the three and to one another, but in due proportion.” Timaeus - Plato (360 BCE)

Johannes Kepler knew that "ubi materia, ibi geometria" (where there is Matter, there is Geometry), and "that the geometrical things have
provided the Creator with the model for decorating the whole world". In Harmonices Mundi (The Harmony of the World, 1619) he related musical
consonance and the angular velocities of the planets, for example, the ratio between Jupiter’s maximum and Mars minimum speed is as 5:24. That
is equivalent to the interval of two octaves plus a minor third. The two octaves are eliminated by dividing 24 with 4, which gives the ratio
of 5:6, a minor third. From his studies of planetary harmonics Kepler also arrived at the bold conclusion that between Jupiter and Mars must
exist an unknown planet: "Intra Jovem et Martem posui planetum." (Between Jupiter and Mars I put a planet.") Some 170 years later the so-called
asteroid belt was found in the corresponding place. 

On Harmony And Beauty

The Pythagoreans averred that mathematics demonstrated the exact method by which the good established and maintained its universe. Number
therefore preceded harmony, since it was the immutable law that governs all harmonic proportions. Summarizing the relationship between the
human body and the theory of architecture, Marcus Vitruvius Pollio (80–15 BC) wrote in his De Architectura: "Since nature has designed the
human body so that its members are duly proportioned to the frame as a whole, it appears that the ancients had good reason for their rule,
that in perfect building the different members must be in exact symmetrical relations to the whole general scheme. Hence, while transmitting
to us the proper arrangements for buildings of all kinds, they were particularly careful to do so in the case of temples of the gods, buildings
in which merits and faults usually last forever. Therefore, if it is agreed that number was found out from the human fingers, and that there is
a symmetrical correspondent between the members separately and the entire form of the body, in accordance with a certain part selected as
standard, we can have nothing but respect for those who, in constructing temples of the immortal gods, have so arranged the members of the
works that both the separate parts and the whole design may harmonize in their proportions and symmetry." 

"Harmony is a state recognized by great philosophers as the immediate prerequisite of beauty. A compound is termed beautiful only when its parts are in harmonious combination. The world is called beautiful and its Creator is designated the Good because good perforce must act in conformity with its own nature; and good acting according to its own nature is harmony, because the good which it accomplishes is harmonious with the good which it is. Beauty, therefore, is harmony manifesting its own intrinsic nature in the world of form. The universe is made up of successive gradations of good, these gradations ascending from matter (which is the least degree of good) to spirit (which is the greatest degree of good). In man, his superior nature is the summum bonum. It therefore follows that his highest nature most readily cognizes good because the good external to him in the world is in harmonic ratio with the good present in his soul. What man terms evil is therefore, in common with matter, merely the least degree of its own opposite. The least degree of good presupposes likewise the least degree of harmony and beauty. Thus deformity (evil) is really the least harmonious combination of elements naturally harmonic as individual units. Deformity is unnatural, for, the sum of all things being the Good, it is natural that all things should partake of the Good and be arranged in combinations that are harmonious. Harmony is the manifesting expression of the Will of the eternal Good." Secret Teachings of All Ages - Manly P. Hall (1928)

Credits: Samuel Colman (1912): Nature's Harmonic Unity - A Treatise on Its Relation to Proportional Form

Race To The Bottom: Baltic Dry Index Collapsed To New All-Time Low

Freight rates have fallen to levels never seen before, 60% since August, and are currently 25% below the worst days of 2008.
 The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index (BDI), which gauges the cost of shipping cargoes including iron ore, cement, grain,
coal and fertilizer, fell to 551 points yesterday. Historically, the Baltic Exchange Dry Index reached an all-time high of
11,612 in August 2008 and a record low of 498 in November of 2015. Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI is totally devoid
of speculative content and reflects the real economy, since people don't book freighters unless they have cargo to move.

EUR/USD vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

US T-Bonds vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

DAX vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

Russell 2000 vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

SPX vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

Gold vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

Crude Oil vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

Soybeans vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

SPX vs Galactic Center

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution

"The safest general characterization of the European philosophical tradition is that it consists of a series of footnotes to Plato."
Alfred North Whitehead

The Milky Way and the Sun of all Suns are the inspiration for the symbol of the Ouroboros, a serpent of light residing in the heavens, in the galactic central point of Sagittarius A*, and eating its own tail. Plato described the Ouroboros as the first living thing; a self-eating, circular being — the universe as an immortal, mythologically constructed entity. The current mathematical symbol for infinity may be derived from the Ouroboros, also known to ancient Egypt, China, Japan, India, Celts, Norse, Native American Indian tribes, Aztecs and Toltecs alike. In the iconography of Greco-Babylonian astrology, Hermeticism and Gnostic Christianity, the beginning and ending points of the sky are positioned where the ecliptic, the pathway of the Sun, crosses the galactic plane of the Milky Way (Plato's X). The galactic plane is tilted 60°to the ecliptic and is crossed by our Sun twice a year at the galactic equatorial node (the "Gate of God" ≈ 5° Sagittarius 17' ≈ 245.283 degrees ≈ Nov 28), and the anti-galactic equatorial node (the "Gate of Man" ≈ 5° Gemini 17' ≈ 65.283 degrees ≈ May 26). Universal descriptions depict the distance between these points as the Ouroboros, the “tail-devourer” (Greek oura “tail”, boros “eating”), representing cyclic renewal of life and infinity, the concepts of eternity and eternal return, the cycle of life, death and rebirth, leading to immortality. The Sun will conjunct the Galactic Center - the mouth of the Ouroborus - on Dec 19 (Sat), just before the winter solstice.

SPX vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees of the SUN 2016

"The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less active for each.year, as the sun degrees
are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year. So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern."
Jack Gillen (1979): The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange.

VIX vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle - Reversal Back To Normal Correlation

US-Stocks should reverse today, and turn up into Dec 6 (Sun)(see also expected direction in December SoLunar Map)

China's Supergrowth Likely To Run Five More Years

Credits: World Bank ׀ Enlarge

Brad DeLong (Dec 01, 2015) - China has hitherto kept growing and growing rapidly, even without anything a North Atlantic economic historian would see as the rule of law. It has had its own system of what we might call industrial neofeudalism. Instead of the king's judges enforcing property and contract rights, Chinese entrepreneurs have protection via their fealty to connection groups within the party that others do not wish to cross. Historically, the Hamiltonian strategy of moving farmers to factories and setting them to work using imported manufacturing technology is the only reliably successful development strategy because manufacturing technology is the only one that can be reliably imported. You buy the machines to make the products, you buy the blueprints for the products to be made and, with a few engineering coaches hired from abroad - and you are in business. 

Start of Second Sino-Japanese War 1937 + 51.6 Years =
Tiananmen Square US Color Revolution Attempt June 4, 1989
People's Republic of China established Oct 1, 1949 + 72 Years = 2021
Mao Zedong meets Richard Nixon Feb 21, 1972 + 51.6 Years = 2023
Deng Xiaoping starts economic reforms 1978 + 51.6 Years = 2029

But that requires that people outside your country buy your low-priced manufactures. And the world has reached a point at which demand for manufactured goods is no longer highly elastic [...] After the 2015 stock market crash, China is likely to have another five, maybe ten, years of very healthy growth. The party can redistribute income from the rich to the middle and the poor and from the coasts to the interior. Mammoth demand from an enriched urban middle class and peasantry can provide business for all of China's factories that otherwise would be selling into an export market with lower-than-expected demand elasticity. The interior can be brought up to the manufacturing productivity standards of the coast (see also HERE)

Demographics as Destiny

Business Insider (Nov 30, 2015) - What the size of the world's workforce will be like in a decade is well predictable, since the future workers have already been born. Demographics have long been a key determinant of potential growth rates, but the change in the global population over the next few years is unprecedented. Japan's population started to shrink in the mid-1990s and Germany's started shrinking around the year 2000, but the world's most populous country, China, is now seeing its working-age population shrink for the first time. Though the overall global population will continue to grow for some time yet, the growth of the working-age population is slowing down pretty much everywhere. That's relevant for a bundle of reasons. Around the world there will be fewer workers to support a growing number of retirees. But it also has some economists expecting significant pressure on wages.

The sea of red and pink across the advanced world means contraction, no growth,
or slow growth. Only in a belt of the developing world (in Africa particularly)
is there any substantial expansion coming by 2020. Credits: HSBC (Nov 2015)
Enlarge

If employers have to fight for a group of workers that is growing more slowly, or even declining, they will need to encourage people to move, and their labour will be more valuable. Some countries, like Japan, Russia, and parts of Europe, have already entered the stage that the rest of the world is going into — and they've struggled with it. In Japan, slowing economic growth has made the county's ever-expanding pile of public debt more and more difficult to deal with, and the working-age population has already declined by 11.1% in the past 20 years. Smaller populations mean less demand and less potential output. More retirees relative to the number of working-age people means more fiscal pressure: greater expenditure on healthcare and less tax income. Globally, although working-age populations are still growing, HSBC expects global potential growth to be 0.6ppt lower per year over the next decade compared with the past decade given these demographic changes. Not great news for heavily indebted economies (see also HERE).

SPX vs Jupiter-Saturn Cycle

Soybeans - Time and Price Near Major Low

Up-swings in the 30 Year Long-Term Commodity Cycle last for about 10 years, down-swings 20 years. Soybeans topped in this cycle in 2012 and
should decline into 2030. On a medium-term scale the average advance lasts 29 months, declines 16 months. Soybeans have been declining 38
months from the top, losing 53% of the value. The swing-chart shows that declines of 50% + are followed by rallies of 80% +. A 7 year
low-to-low cycle also points to January 2016. A likely price target would be 809, the 0.707 Fibonacci retracement level. If this is correct,
Soybeans should move back up to 1,418 +.