How Many Ghost Cities Are There in China?

Map from a Baidu study on 20 cities with a large vacant housing area

China has experienced fast development during the past decades. In 1990, 26% of the Chinese population lived in cities. Today the urban population makes up about 54% of the total population. According to current estimates, 15 years from now China’s cities will contain 70% of the national population, amounting to about 1 billion people. From 1984 to 2010, the urban built up area has increased from 8,842 to 41,768 square kilometers. The urbanization speed is unprecedented in human history with so many buildings constructed in such a short time. The amount of concrete used in China in only three years (2011‐2013) is more than that used in U.S. in the 20th century. The fast urbanization of China has contributed to the high housing vacancy rate in some cities. Many new housing districts are built, but they far exceed the actual demand.

Tianducheng - Paris of the East (HERE)

In these cities, the population density is very low, and the residential districts are dark with few lights at night. Therefore, they are called “ghost cities". The “Ghost city” phenomenon has attracted much attention in recent years. China is the world's most populated country without a doubt has the world's largest number of empty homes. But take a closer look at two of the supposed ghost cities: Rushan and Kangbashi. Rushan is a fast-growing city on the coastline. Kangbashi is a mining town, a.k.a. Ordos, with explosive development that’s often held up as the prototypical Chinese ghost city. Both have large swatches of vacant housing, and they have both been described as ghost towns. But the vacancy patterns, right down to the hour in each city, reveals something else: That Rushan is actually fully occupied during one season, and during holidays, but then it empties out in the winter and during the week. The explanation is simple: It’s not a ghost town, it’s a resort town. Construction on Tianducheng, in China’s Zhejiang district, began in 2007. It was meant to be a luxurious gated community resembling Paris in every way possible. The highlight of the town is its 108 meter replica of the Eiffel tower, but plenty of Paris’ other landmarks have been faithfully recreated here. The development was built to house 100,000 people and to draw rural families into a bustling metropolitan area. As of 2007, (the last time the population was counted), only 2,000 souls inhabited the gated compound. The population seems to be dwindling, leading local media to refer to Tianducheng as a “ghost town.” Its expected completion date was in 2015. So the Paris of the East, it turns out, isn’t quite a ghost town – it hasn’t had the time to develop ghosts just yet. In a few years, this now-quiet development could very well be chock full of Chinese residents ready to begin their high standard life style.

Web Bot: Massive Crackdown in China - $64B Underground Bank Busted - Emergency FED Meeting Monday (Nov 23): Rate Hike?

HERE

SPX vs George Bayer's » A Time and Times and Half a Time «

More information on the concept HERE. Charted and calculated with Timing Solution

SPX vs Speed of Mercury + Moon

On Nov 25 (Wed) the heliocentric speed of Mercury reaches the cyclical minimum; the lunar speed's minimum follows the next day;
Thanksgiving Day will be the low in US-stock indices next week.

“Live As On A Mountain. Let Men See.”

“Men exist for the sake of one another”

[...] Consider that everything is opinion, and opinion is in thy power. [...] He who does not know what the world is, does not know where he is. And he who does not know for what purpose the world exists, does not know who he is, nor what the world is. But he who has failed in any one of these things could not even say for what purpose he exists himself. What then dost thou think of him who avoids or seeks the praise of those who applaud, of men who know not either where they are or who they are?

 [...] Say to yourself in the early morning: I shall meet today inquisitive, ungrateful, violent, treacherous, envious, uncharitable men. All these things have come upon them through ignorance of real good and ill. [...] Men exist for the sake of one another. Teach them then or bear with them. [...] Very little is needed to make a happy life. [...] Know the joy of life by piling good deed on good deed until no rift or cranny appears between them. [...] Have I done something for the general interest? Well then I have had my reward. Let this always be present to thy mind, and never stop doing such good.  [...] He who fears death either fears to lose all sensation or fears new sensations. In reality, you will either feel nothing at all, and therefore nothing evil, or else, if you can feel any sensations, you will be a new creature, and so will not have ceased to have life. [...] Live as on a mountain. Let men see, let them know a real man who lives according to nature. If they cannot endure him, let them kill him. For that is better than to live thus." - Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius Antoninus (121 – murdered 180 AD): Meditations

Lumber Futures vs Housing Starts and Jobless Claims | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan (Nov 19, 2015) - Lumber prices tell us pretty reliably and ahead of time about what is going to happen to real estate prices
and activity, plus interest rates. They can even tell us about what unemployment is going to do.

SPX vs 23 Trading Day Cycle

This could be an ending diagonal triangle developing up into the winter solstice to top around 2,165.
Since 1987, the DJIA has logged gains in 22 of 28 years from the close on Friday after Thanksgiving to year end (HERE)

NYSE To Eliminate "Stop Orders" From February 2016

Sanity spells differently (HERE + HERE)

The Cashless Society | A Totalitarian’s Dream Come True

Casey Research (Nov 19, 2015) - In 1661, Sweden became the first country in Europe to issue paper money. Now it’s probably going to be the first in the world to eliminate it. Sweden has already phased out most cash transactions. According to Credit Suisse, 80% of all purchases in Sweden are electronic and don’t involve cash. And that figure is rising. If the trend continues - and there is nothing to suggest it won’t - Sweden could soon be the world’s first cashless society. Sweden’s supply of physical currency has dropped over 50% in the last six years. A couple of major Swedish banks no longer carry cash. Virtually all Swedes pay for candy bars and coffee electronically. Even homeless street vendors use mobile card readers [...] Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland all have negative interest rates. Negative interest rates mean the lender literally pays the borrower for the privilege of lending him money. It’s a bizarre, upside down concept. But negative rates are not some European anomaly. The Federal Reserve discussed the possibility of using negative interest rates in the U.S. at its last meeting. Negative rates could not exist in a free market. They destroy the impetus to save and build capital, which is the basis of prosperity.

Best Seasonal Time of The Year

Credits: Nautilus Research

SPX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

EUR/USD Long-Term Low

Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 18, 2015) - EUR COT Analysis: Historically highest net long positions of commercial traders at the Euro low in March 2015
suggest that a Major Bottom in the Euro is in, and a 7.6 Year Rise of the Euro is about to start (chart HERE).

HERE

Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 19, 2015) - 15.23 Year Cycle in EUR/USD

SPX vs Sun Conjunct Mercury

SPX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

Russell 2000 vs Inverted Lunar Year Cycle

DAX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

DJIA vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

See also HERE

SPX vs Venus in Libra

Low = Nov 25 (Wed)

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution

SPX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

At times inversions in the 4 Lunar Year Cycle overlap with inversions in the Lunar Year Cycle and 4 Lunar Month Cycle. The result is conflict
and confusion in the short-term Delta count. The problem with the above inverted Delta count for the SPX is of course that the Russell 2000
closed the last week on a high. The Delta count for the Russell 2000 suggests a continuation of the up-move into Nov 11 (Wed) followed by a
decline into Nov 23 (Mon). This outlook is supported by the 4 lunar month rotation in the VIX where stochastics hint to further decline. Nov
11 is also New Moon and a turn day in the SoLunar Map. Again, a high in the SoLunar Map usually corresponds with a short-term stock market low.

Erin Heim (Nov 05, 2015) - The S&P 100 (OEX) just received a new Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal.
This signal generated when the 50-EMA crossed back above the 200-EMA.
The Annual Cycle, the Presidential Cycle, and the Decennial Cycle are all strong into mid December, while the latter two project a major low
in Q1 2016 followed by new market highs. This would be in line with Louise McWhirter's Theory of Stock Market Forecasting.

Long-Term Cycle Outlook On US-Stocks

Hard down into Q1 2016.
Kitchin Cycle (42 months), 1/3 Kitchin Cycle (13 1/2 months), Wall Cycle (4 1/2 months - 100 days)
Credits: Swing Trade Cycles

2015 vs 1998

Credits: Nautilus Research

7 Year Cycle Bottoms

JustSignals (Nov 4, 2015) - Note that in the 20th century the "5th" year of the decade was a strong year.  In the early part of the 20th century this had been brought to light by the late W.D. Gann and an analysis of the decennial patterns throughout the century.  In addition, there are two 10 year cycle patterns.  One bottoms in years ending in a "2" and tops in a year ending in a "7" and the other bottoms in a year ending in a "4" and tops in a year ending in a "9".  This does not happen ALL the time, but it does happen often.  In fact you will see that when the "7 year cycle" falls on a year ending in a "5" that the bottom falls in the year before ending in a "4" probably because that cycle may be more dominant at the time. Let's now see the "7 year cycles" going back to the early 1900's courtesy of Worden Bros. Charts. A green arrow notes the bottoms and since 1932 was a very dominant bottom the count back and forward use that year as a starting point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 














Each time the "7 year cycle" bottomed the strength varied.  It was not the dominant cycle each time, but, there were many times it was and it made a meaningful bottom. Will this cycle continue and make a bottom in 2016?  This cycle is now being watched by many many people.  The market will not make it easy for this cycle to bottom.  It is probable that head fake may be seen along the way.  Be prepared and be careful.

German DAX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

However, the Nasdaq dropped only by -0.1% or -2.65 points on Nov 4 (Wed) while the RASI was still rising, and Thomas Bulkowski
remarks: Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 541 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's: Average
gain was 0.7% on 295 occasions. Average loss was -0.9% on 246 occasions. Expect the index to close higher 54.5% [on Nov 5].

Tekkie Suresh: "Rahu getting involved with Venus and Mars, points to a trough around November mid month, Should see  a recovery thereafter."

Jeff Hirsch (Nov 3, 2015) - In the most recent 21-year period spanning 1994 to 2014, November opens strong, peaks around the fourth
trading day, trades lower till the eighth trading day, bounces mid-month, moves sideway to down during the week before Thanksgiving
then higher to close out the month with gains ranging from just under 1.5% for Russell 2000 to over 2% for DJIA.

Upcoming Astro Phenomena - November 2015

Enlarge

Sunspots suggest the stock market will be up on Nov 02 (Mon). The same is true for the Ap (chart above).
Contrary to these the SoLunar Map points to a short term market low on Tuesday, Nov 3. See also the Astrometric Indicator.
Oscar Carboni expects Monday to be down, but mentions stocks could switch back up again the same day.

SoLunar Intraday Maps - November 2015

The charts show the hourly solunar forces over Wall Street. Intraday movements of financial markets are strongly influenced 
by daily and intraday solunar forces. They usually closely follow their direction - either directly or inverted. Turning points can
be fine-tuned using the previously described planetary hours as well as the times of rising, culminating and setting planets.
Please note: Times calculated refer to EST.